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UVA

Virginia 20 at Virginia Tech 24

VT
2014 · Week 14 · Nov 28, 2014 · Lane Stadium
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Win probability · VT
modelVT aheadUVA aheadconfidence bandkey playVT scoreUVA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 6:58 · Kevin Parks run for no gain to the VTech 16
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+25.5+12.80−12.8−25.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 123Home team on offense−6.2Pregame prior−2.3Garbage-time factor−0.3Score differential−3.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:41: Michael Brewer pass intercepted for a TD David Dean return for 3 yds for a TD, (Ian Frye KICK) — UVA win probability +12.4 pts (now 54%) (top driver: VT +3 timeouts on the defense).
  2. TD · Q3 0:15: Michael Brewer pass complete to Cam Phillips for 36 yds for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK) — VT win probability +22.6 pts (now 72%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 2:55: Greyson Lambert pass complete to Zachary Swanson for 20 yds for a TD, (Ian Frye KICK) — UVA win probability +49.6 pts (now 83%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 1:48: Michael Brewer pass complete to Bucky Hodges for 9 yds for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK) — VT win probability +51.3 pts (now 92%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 0:00: TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 43 — VT win probability +12.5 pts (now 96%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
VT made the numbers' call on 4 of 10UVA made the numbers' call on 10 of 13
  1. Q1 13:17UVA 4th & 7 at VT 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.0%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    53.9%−0.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    54.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:51VT 4th & 10 at VT 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.1%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:45UVA 4th & 6 at UVA 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.9%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:09VT 4th & 4 at UVA 4, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 48.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.6%−0.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    46.5%−2.3
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:09UVA 4th & 16 at VT 23, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 48.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.7%−1.1
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.8%
    70% to make
    Punt
    45.8%−3.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:42UVA 4th & 5 at VT 31, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 51.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.8%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.7%−0.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    51.1%−0.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:38VT 4th & 2 at UVA 39, tied
    Close callPunted · 51.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    49.9%−1.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    50.0%−0.9
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:30UVA 4th & 9 at UVA 2, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.6%−1.6
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.3%
    average punt
  9. Q2 7:30UVA 4th & 4 at VT 4, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 42.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.3%−0.6
    93% to make
    Punt
    35.3%−6.7
    average punt
  10. Q2 6:12VT 4th & 3 at VT 10, up 4
    Close callPunted · 53.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.0%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.7%−0.3
    average punt
  11. Q2 4:48UVA 4th & 16 at UVA 49, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.1%−1.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.4%
    average punt
  12. Q2 1:10VT 4th & 11 at UVA 38, down 3
    Close callPunted · 45.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.8%−0.4
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    45.2%
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    44.5%−0.7
    average punt
  13. Q2 0:42UVA 4th & 6 at UVA 24, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.4%−2.2
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.6%
    average punt
  14. Q2 0:01VT 4th & 10 at UVA 33, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.0%−0.5
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.5%
    49% to make
    Punt
    44.0%−0.5
    average punt
  15. Q3 11:42VT 4th & 15 at VT 15, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.2%−3.8
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.0%
    average punt
  16. Q3 6:58UVA 4th & 1 at VT 16, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 58.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    57.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    54.5%−3.5
    81% to make
    Punt
    43.8%−14.2
    average punt
  17. Q3 4:28VT 4th & 7 at VT 33, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.5%−2.4
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.9%
    average punt
  18. Q3 3:21UVA 4th & 1 at UVA 41, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.9 ptsPunted · 58.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.0%−2.9
    average punt
  19. Q4 14:04UVA 4th & 11 at UVA 41, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.0%−3.3
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.3%
    average punt
  20. Q4 11:29VT 4th & 5 at UVA 34, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.4 ptsPunted · 69.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.6%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    68.0%−1.6
    47% to make
    PuntTheir call
    66.2%−3.4
    average punt
  21. Q4 9:33UVA 4th & 25 at UVA 13, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.3%−5.4
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.7%
    average punt
  22. Q4 6:50VT 4th & 10 at UVA 32, up 4
    Numbers favored field goal by 3.1 ptsPunted · 76.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.4%−1.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    73.4%
    51% to make
    PuntTheir call
    70.3%−3.1
    average punt
  23. Q4 0:04UVA 4th & 5 at VT 36, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.0%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    18.9%−8.1
    42% to make
    Punt
    25.3%−1.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
VT made the numbers' call on 2 of 2UVA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 4:41UVA Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 0:15VT Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 2:55UVA Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.2%−2.6
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 1:48VT Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.0%−1.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UVADrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:1356% → 56%
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
43.6%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Zachary Swanson for no gain to the VTech 48Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+3
43.7%
Kevin Parks run for 3 yds to the VTech 45Similar
Q1 13:27
3RD & 7
OPP 45
0
43.8%
Greyson Lambert pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:17
4TH & 7
OPP 45
+5
44.0%
Alec Vozenilek punt for 31 yds , Kyshoen Jarrett returns for 5 yds to the VTech 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:0944% → 44%
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
44.1%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Willie Byrn for 1 yd to the VTech 20Similar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 9
OWN 20
-1
44.3%
J.C. Coleman run for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 19Similar
Q1 12:04
3RD & 10
OWN 19
0
44.2%
Michael Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:51
4TH & 10
OWN 19
0
44.2%
A.J. Hughes punt for 50 yds, downed at the Virg 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:5956% → 55%
Q1 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-1
44.4%
Khalek Shepherd run for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 30Similar
Q1 11:05
2ND & 11
OWN 30
+4
44.6%
Kevin Parks run for 4 yds to the Virg 34Similar
Q1 10:32
3RD & 7
OWN 34
+1
44.8%
Kevin Parks run for 1 yd to the Virg 35Similar
Q1 9:45
4TH & 6
OWN 35
+10
45.2%
Alec Vozenilek punt for 48 yds , Greg Stroman returns for 10 yds to the VTech 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 4FG
15 plays · 69 yds · 6:2945% → 48%
Q1 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
45.2%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Willie Byrn for 8 yds to the VTech 35Similar
Q1 9:00
2ND & 2
OWN 35
+1
45.6%
J.C. Coleman run for 1 yd to the VTech 36Similar
Q1 8:33
3RD & 1
OWN 36
+2
45.4%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Bucky Hodges for 2 yds to the VTech 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
45.7%
Michael Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:06
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+7
45.6%
Sam Rogers run for 7 yds to the VTech 45Similar
Q1 7:20
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+18
46.0%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Willie Byrn for 18 yds to the Virg 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:46
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
46.7%
Michael Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:23
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+6
46.7%
Brenden Motley run for 6 yds to the Virg 31Similar
Q1 6:01
3RD & 4
OPP 31
+6
46.8%
J.C. Coleman run for 6 yds to the Virg 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+8
47.4%
Deon Newsome run for 8 yds to the Virg 17Similar
Q1 4:41
2ND & 2
OPP 17
+9
47.7%
Brenden Motley run for 9 yds to the Virg 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
47.8%
Brenden Motley run for 3 yds to the Virg 5Similar
Q1 3:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
48.1%
Brenden Motley run for 1 yd to the Virg 4Similar
Q1 3:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
47.8%
Michael Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:09
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
48.3%
Joey Slye 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 5FG
9 plays · 49 yds · 2:5252% → 53%
Q1 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
48.2%
Kevin Parks run for no gain to the Virg 28Similar
Q1 2:30
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+15
48.2%
Lambert, Greyson pass incomplete, PENALTY VATECH pass interference 15 yards to the VIRGINIA43, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN VIRGINIA. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+40
47.3%
Kevin Parks run for 40 yds to the VTech 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
47.0%
Kevin Parks run for 2 yds to the VTech 15Similar
Q1 0:30
2ND & 8
OPP 15
-8
47.2%
Darius Jennings run for a loss of 8 yards to the VTech 23Similar
Q1 0:15
3RD & 16
OPP 23
0
48.7%
Greyson Lambert pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:09
4TH & 16
OPP 23
+40
47.5%
Ian Frye 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 6FUMBLE
5 plays · 11 yds · 0:4348% → 50%
Q1 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
48.4%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the VTech 20Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 15
OWN 20
-5
48.3%
Isaiah Ford run for a loss of 5 yards to the VTech 15Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 20
OWN 15
+26
48.2%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 26 yds to the VTech 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:26
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-5
49.6%
Michael Brewer sacked by Max Valles for a loss of 5 yards to the VTech 36 Michael Brewer fumbled, forced by Max Valles, recovered by Virg Eli Harold , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 7MISSED FG
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:3155% → 53%
Q2 14:13
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
45.5%
Kevin Parks run for 1 yd to the VTech 35Similar
Q2 13:45
2ND & 9
OPP 35
0
45.1%
Greyson Lambert pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:14
3RD & 9
OPP 35
+4
45.8%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Kevin Parks for 4 yds to the VTech 31Similar
Q2 12:42
4TH & 5
OPP 31
+48
46.9%
Ian Frye 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 30 yds · 2:0449% → 51%
Q2 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
49.4%
Michael Brewer run for 4 yds to the VTech 35Similar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+18
50.1%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 18 yds to the Virg 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
51.5%
J.C. Coleman run for 6 yds to the Virg 41Similar
Q2 11:15
2ND & 4
OPP 41
+2
51.8%
J.C. Coleman run for 2 yds to the Virg 39Similar
Q2 10:46
3RD & 2
OPP 39
0
51.6%
Michael Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:38
4TH & 2
OPP 39
0
50.7%
A.J. Hughes punt for 38 yds, downed at the Virg 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 9PUNT TD
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:0151% → 39%
Q2 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
48.8%
Kevin Parks run for 2 yds to the Virg 3Similar
Q2 9:59
2ND & 8
OWN 3
0
48.7%
Greyson Lambert pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:44
3RD & 8
OWN 3
-1
50.1%
Kevin Parks run for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 2Similar
Q2 9:30
4TH & 9
OWN 2
0
60.8%
TEAM punt blocked by C.J. Reavis, recovered by Bucky Hodges in the endzone for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 10FG
8 plays · 56 yds · 1:4542% → 45%
Q2 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
58.1%
Greyson Lambert pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:10
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+54
58.4%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 54 yds to the VTech 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
55.3%
Kevin Parks run for 2 yds to the VTech 4Similar
Q2 8:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
55.5%
Greyson Lambert run for 2 yds to the VTech 2Similar
Q2 7:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
56.4%
Kevin Parks run for a loss of 2 yards to the VTech 4Similar
Q2 7:30
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
55.0%
Ian Frye 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:0855% → 54%
Q2 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 3
0
54.6%
Michael Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:17
2ND & 10
OWN 3
-1
54.5%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, False Start (-1 Yards) to the VTech 2Similar
Q2 7:03
2ND & 11
OWN 2
+8
54.6%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Cam Phillips for 8 yds to the VTech 10Similar
Q2 6:28
3RD & 3
OWN 10
0
54.3%
Michael Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:12
4TH & 3
OWN 10
+34
53.8%
A.J. Hughes punt for 49 yds for a 1ST down , Khalek Shepherd returns for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 9 for a 1ST down VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the VTech 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 1:2246% → 41%
Q2 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
54.4%
Greyson Lambert pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:53
2ND & 10
OPP 45
-15
54.8%
VIRGINIA Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the Virg 40Similar
Q2 5:31
2ND & 25
OWN 40
+9
57.1%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Kevin Parks for 9 yds to the Virg 49Similar
Q2 4:56
3RD & 16
OWN 49
0
57.5%
Greyson Lambert pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:48
4TH & 16
OWN 49
0
58.6%
Alec Vozenilek punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Greg Stroman at the VTech 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 13INT TD
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0046% → 46%
Q2 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+3
46.2%
Michael Brewer pass intercepted for a TD David Dean return for 3 yds for a TD, (Ian Frye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 14PUNT
9 plays · 42 yds · 3:1246% → 45%
Q2 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+33
46.4%
J.C. Coleman run for 33 yds to the Virg 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:43
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
49.6%
Brenden Motley run for 6 yds to the Virg 41Similar
Q2 3:00
2ND & 4
OPP 41
-1
50.0%
Brenden Motley sacked by Quin Blanding for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 42Similar
Q2 2:30
3RD & 5
OPP 42
+5
49.4%
Brenden Motley run for 5 yds to the Virg 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
49.8%
Brenden Motley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:38
2ND & 10
OPP 37
-1
49.0%
Brenden Motley run for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 38Similar
Q2 1:17
3RD & 11
OPP 38
0
47.0%
Brenden Motley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:10
4TH & 11
OPP 38
0
45.4%
A.J. Hughes punt for 38 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 0:2357% → 55%
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
43.3%
Kevin Parks run for 2 yds to the Virg 22Similar
Q2 0:58
2ND & 8
OWN 22
0
44.5%
Kevin Parks run for no gain to the Virg 22Similar
Q2 0:54
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+2
45.3%
Kevin Parks run for 2 yds to the Virg 24Similar
Q2 0:42
4TH & 6
OWN 24
0
45.3%
Alec Vozenilek punt for 34 yds, downed at the VTech 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 16MISSED FG
6 plays · 25 yds · 0:3944% → 42%
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+11
43.9%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Cam Phillips for 11 yds to the Virg 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+14
45.1%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 14 yds to the Virg 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
46.8%
Michael Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:11
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
46.7%
Michael Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:07
3RD & 10
OPP 33
0
44.2%
Michael Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:01
4TH & 10
OPP 33
+51
41.5%
Joey Slye 51 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 17FUMBLE
1 play · 8 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
42.0%
Kevin Parks run for 8 yds to the Virg 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 18INT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:2861% → 59%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-4
39.3%
Kevin Parks run for a loss of 4 yards to the VTech 33Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 14
OPP 33
+3
40.5%
Kevin Parks run for 3 yds to the VTech 30Similar
Q3 13:27
3RD & 11
OPP 30
0
40.9%
Greyson Lambert pass intercepted Kyshoen Jarrett return for no gain to the VTech 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 19FUMBLE
8 plays · 8 yds · 1:3144% → 41%
Q3 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+7
43.5%
J.C. Coleman run for 7 yds to the VTech 14Similar
Q3 12:49
2ND & 3
OWN 14
+2
43.7%
J.C. Coleman run for 2 yds to the VTech 16Similar
Q3 12:28
3RD & 1
OWN 16
+4
42.2%
J.C. Coleman run for 4 yds to the VTech 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
43.8%
Michael Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:02
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-5
43.6%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the VTech 15Similar
Q3 11:56
2ND & 15
OWN 15
0
43.4%
Michael Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:52
3RD & 15
OWN 15
0
42.1%
Michael Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:42
4TH & 15
OWN 15
0
41.4%
A.J. Hughes punt for 37 yds , Khalek Shepherd returns for no gain to the Virg 48 Khalek Shepherd fumbled, recovered by Virg Quin BlandingSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 20DOWNS
11 plays · 36 yds · 4:4459% → 59%
Q3 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-5
40.9%
VIRGINIA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Virg 43Similar
Q3 11:15
1ST & 15
OWN 43
+2
42.5%
Kevin Parks run for 2 yds to the Virg 45Similar
Q3 11:00
2ND & 13
OWN 45
+20
42.4%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Canaan Severin for 20 yds to the VTech 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
39.3%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Andre Levrone for 4 yds to the VTech 31Similar
Q3 9:44
2ND & 6
OPP 31
-4
37.6%
Kevin Parks run for a loss of 4 yards to the VTech 35Similar
Q3 9:15
3RD & 10
OPP 35
+10
39.7%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 10 yds to the VTech 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
37.4%
Khalek Shepherd run for 2 yds to the VTech 23Similar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+7
37.3%
Darius Jennings run for 7 yds to the VTech 16Similar
Q3 7:04
3RD & 1
OPP 16
0
38.6%
Greyson Lambert run for no gain to the VTech 16Similar
Q3 6:58
4TH & 1
OPP 16
0
41.4%
Kevin Parks run for no gain to the VTech 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 21PUNT
9 plays · 17 yds · 2:1745% → 43%
Q3 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+1
45.4%
J.C. Coleman run for 1 yd to the VTech 17Similar
Q3 6:30
2ND & 9
OWN 17
+1
45.2%
J.C. Coleman run for 1 yd to the VTech 18Similar
Q3 5:49
3RD & 8
OWN 18
+12
43.5%
Michael Brewer run for 12 yds to the VTech 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-10
46.1%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the VTech 20Similar
Q3 5:01
1ST & 20
OWN 20
+8
44.6%
Sam Rogers run for 8 yds to the VTech 28Similar
Q3 4:44
2ND & 12
OWN 28
0
44.7%
Michael Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:39
3RD & 12
OWN 28
+5
43.1%
VIRGINIA Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the VTech 33Similar
Q3 4:35
3RD & 7
OWN 33
0
44.3%
Michael Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:28
4TH & 7
OWN 33
0
42.8%
A.J. Hughes punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Virg 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:0259% → 59%
Q3 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
40.8%
Greyson Lambert pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:47
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+9
41.4%
Kevin Parks run for 9 yds to the Virg 41Similar
Q3 3:32
3RD & 1
OWN 41
0
39.1%
Greyson Lambert pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:21
4TH & 1
OWN 41
+3
41.3%
Alec Vozenilek punt for 45 yds , Greg Stroman returns for 3 yds to the VTech 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 23TD
7 plays · 83 yds · 2:5545% → 72%
Q3 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
45.0%
J.C. Coleman run for 4 yds to the VTech 21Similar
Q3 2:45
2ND & 6
OWN 21
+4
44.9%
J.C. Coleman run for 4 yds to the VTech 25Similar
Q3 2:10
3RD & 2
OWN 25
+11
44.3%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Cam Phillips for 11 yds to the VTech 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
46.1%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Cam Phillips for 7 yds to the VTech 43Similar
Q3 0:43
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+5
49.0%
Sam Rogers run for 5 yds to the VTech 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+16
49.3%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Sam Rogers for 16 yds to the Virg 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+36
71.9%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Cam Phillips for 36 yds for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 24PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 1:0133% → 31%
Q3 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
67.0%
Greyson Lambert pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:05
2ND & 10
OWN 24
-5
67.3%
VIRGINIA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Virg 19Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 15
OWN 19
+23
67.8%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Darius Jennings for 23 yds to the Virg 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-1
64.6%
Khalek Shepherd run for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 41Similar
Q4 14:17
2ND & 11
OWN 41
0
66.1%
Greyson Lambert pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:13
3RD & 11
OWN 41
0
67.7%
Greyson Lambert pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:04
4TH & 11
OWN 41
0
69.3%
Alec Vozenilek punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Greg Stroman at the VTech 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 25PUNT
7 plays · 52 yds · 2:1269% → 72%
Q4 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+8
69.3%
J.C. Coleman run for 8 yds to the VTech 22Similar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 2
OWN 22
+1
70.1%
J.C. Coleman run for 1 yd to the VTech 23Similar
Q4 13:12
3RD & 1
OWN 23
+38
69.0%
J.C. Coleman run for 38 yds to the Virg 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
74.0%
Sam Rogers run for 3 yds to the Virg 36Similar
Q4 12:10
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+2
74.2%
Sam Rogers run for 2 yds to the Virg 34Similar
Q4 11:37
3RD & 5
OPP 34
0
74.3%
Michael Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:29
4TH & 5
OPP 34
0
71.8%
A.J. Hughes punt for 23 yds, fair catch by Khalek Shepherd at the Virg 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 26PUNT
7 plays · 2 yds · 1:3731% → 28%
Q4 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+2
69.4%
Darius Jennings run for 2 yds to the Virg 13Similar
Q4 11:00
2ND & 8
OWN 13
+15
69.8%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Virg 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-10
68.6%
Greyson Lambert sacked by Ken Ekanem for a loss of 10 yards to the Virg 18Similar
Q4 10:50
2ND & 20
OWN 18
0
69.8%
Greyson Lambert pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:50
3RD & 20
OWN 18
-5
71.2%
Lambert, Greyson pass complete to Jennings, Darius for 72 yards to the VATECH10, PENALTY VIRGINIA ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the VIRGINIA13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:30
3RD & 25
OWN 13
0
71.4%
Greyson Lambert pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:33
4TH & 25
OWN 13
+33
72.4%
Alec Vozenilek punt for 48 yds, downed at the VATECH 39 VIRGINIA Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (-15 Yards) to the Virg 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 27PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 2:1076% → 78%
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
75.5%
J.C. Coleman run for 2 yds to the Virg 44Similar
Q4 8:30
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+12
76.4%
Sam Rogers run for 12 yds to the Virg 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-1
80.3%
J.C. Coleman run for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 33Similar
Q4 7:30
2ND & 11
OPP 33
+1
81.4%
Sam Rogers run for 1 yd to the Virg 32Similar
Q4 7:00
3RD & 10
OPP 32
0
80.4%
Michael Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:50
4TH & 10
OPP 32
0
77.6%
A.J. Hughes punt for 21 yds, downed at the Virg 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 28TD
11 plays · 89 yds · 3:4928% → 83%
Q4 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
71.6%
Greyson Lambert pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:40
2ND & 10
OWN 11
0
71.8%
Greyson Lambert pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:32
3RD & 10
OWN 11
+18
73.3%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Canaan Severin for 18 yds to the Virg 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
70.9%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 7 yds to the Virg 36Similar
Q4 5:40
2ND & 3
OWN 36
+3
67.8%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 3 yds to the Virg 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+15
71.2%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Canaan Severin for 15 yds to the VTech 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+14
70.5%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Zachary Swanson for 14 yds to the VTech 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:57
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
69.4%
Taquan Mizzell run for 2 yds to the VTech 30Similar
Q4 3:10
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+10
69.2%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Connor Wingo-Reeves for 10 yds to the VTech 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
17.2%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Zachary Swanson for 20 yds for a TD, (Ian Frye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 29TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:0734% → 92%
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
33.5%
Brewer, Michael pass incomplete, PENALTY VIRGINIA roughing passer 15 yards to the VATECH40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN VATECH. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+50
34.3%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Bucky Hodges for 50 yds to the Virg 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
40.0%
Sam Rogers run for 1 yd to the Virg 9Similar
Q4 1:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
40.6%
Brewer, Michael pass incomplete, PENALTY VIRGINIA pass interference 5 yards to the VIRGINIA4, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN VATECH. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
40.6%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Virg 9Similar
Q4 1:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
91.9%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Bucky Hodges for 9 yds for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 30DOWNS
14 plays · 33 yds · 1:2621% → 17%
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-12
79.5%
Greyson Lambert sacked by Dadi Nicolas and Ken Ekanem for a loss of 12 yards to the Virg 11Similar
Q4 1:20
2ND & 22
OWN 11
0
80.3%
Matt Johns pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:00
3RD & 22
OWN 11
+29
82.9%
Matt Johns pass complete to Canaan Severin for 29 yds to the Virg 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
77.1%
Matt Johns run for 1 yd to the Virg 41Similar
Q4 0:48
2ND & 9
OWN 41
0
77.9%
Matt Johns pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:41
3RD & 9
OWN 41
+18
79.4%
Matt Johns pass complete to Keeon Johnson for 18 yds to the VTech 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:26
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
74.4%
Matt Johns pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:26
2ND & 10
OPP 41
-5
75.4%
VIRGINIA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the VTech 46Similar
Q4 0:20
2ND & 15
OPP 46
-8
78.1%
Matt Johns sacked by Corey Marshall for a loss of 8 yards to the Virg 46Similar
Q4 0:12
3RD & 23
OWN 46
+18
86.7%
Matt Johns pass complete to Keeon Johnson for 18 yds to the VTech 36Similar
Q4 0:04
4TH & 5
OPP 36
-8
83.1%
Matt Johns sacked by Ken Ekanem and Dadi Nicolas for a loss of 8 yards to the VTech 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 31END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-1
95.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:48
Michael Brewer pass complete to Bucky Hodges for 9 yds for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK)
+51.3
TD · Q4 2:55
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Zachary Swanson for 20 yds for a TD, (Ian Frye KICK)
-49.6
TD · Q3 0:15
Michael Brewer pass complete to Cam Phillips for 36 yds for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK)
+22.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com