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UVA

Virginia 33 at BYU 41

BYU
2014 · Week 4 · Sep 20, 2014 · LaVell Edwards Stadium
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Win probability · BYU
modelBYU aheadUVA aheadconfidence bandkey playBYU scoreUVA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDFGFGFGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 13:56 · Scott Arellano punt for 65 yds , Khalek Shepherd returns for 1 yd to the Virg 5 Khalek Shepherd fumbled, recovered by Virg
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+31.0+15.50−15.5−31.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 104Pregame prior+14.8Home team on offense−2.6Score differential−1.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.5Garbage-time factor−1.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 9:02: Taysom Hill run for 15 yds for a TD, (Trevor Samson KICK) — BYU win probability +13.1 pts (now 79%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 2:23: Jamaal Williams run for 2 yds for a TD, (Trevor Samson KICK) — BYU win probability +10.9 pts (now 89%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 8:06: Khalek Shepherd run for 9 yds for a TD, (Ian Frye KICK) — UVA win probability +11.2 pts (now 17%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 7:50: Adam Hine 99 Yd Kickoff Return (Trevor Samson Kick) — BYU win probability +12.4 pts (now 95%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:48: Matt Johns pass complete to Kyle Dockins for 11 yds for a TD, (Ian Frye KICK) — UVA win probability +9.2 pts (now 11%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BYU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6UVA made the numbers' call on 8 of 11
  1. Q1 8:10UVA 4th & 5 at UVA 48, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.2%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:10BYU 4th & 6 at UVA 10, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 76.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.5%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    76.6%
    88% to make
    Punt
    75.1%−1.5
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:55UVA 4th & 6 at BYU 6, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 25.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.8%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.9%
    91% to make
    Punt
    22.0%−2.9
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:43UVA 4th & 8 at BYU 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.7%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.9%
    68% to make
    Punt
    23.4%−2.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:50BYU 4th & 23 at BYU 22, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.2%−2.9
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:39BYU 4th & 6 at UVA 19, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 70.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.0%−0.2
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.2%
    77% to make
    Punt
    65.1%−5.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:00UVA 4th & 4 at BYU 5, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 33.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.6%−0.7
    92% to make
    Punt
    25.5%−7.8
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:56BYU 4th & 4 at BYU 31, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.4%−0.9
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.3%
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:45UVA 4th & 2 at UVA 27, up 3
    Close callPunted · 35.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.4%−1.0
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:15UVA 4th & 1 at BYU 41, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    23.5%−3.3
    32% to make
    Punt
    24.0%−2.8
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:08BYU 4th & 25 at BYU 25, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.5%−4.5
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.0%
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:28UVA 4th & 11 at UVA 11, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.3%−2.3
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.6%
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:20UVA 4th & 4 at BYU 39, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    12.0%−1.1
    36% to make
    Punt
    12.1%−1.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:14UVA 4th & 8 at BYU 29, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 12.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.7%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    11.7%
    58% to make
    Punt
    8.7%−3.0
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:53UVA 4th & 9 at UVA 47, down 15
    Close callWent for it · 4.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.5%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.5%
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:21BYU 4th & 4 at UVA 41, up 15
    Close callPunted · 97.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    96.5%−0.6
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    96.6%−0.5
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:40UVA 4th & 3 at UVA 30, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.5%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BYU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5UVA made the numbers' call on 1 of 3
  1. Q1 13:54UVA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:48BYU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 9:02BYU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 2:23BYU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 10:17BYU Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.2%−0.3
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 8:06UVA Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.0%−0.8
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.8%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 7:50BYU Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.6%−0.5
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 1:48UVA Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.4%−0.9
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UVADrive 1TD
5 plays · 53 yds · 0:5721% → 21%
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+15
79.2%
Lambert, Greyson pass incomplete to Jennings, Darius, PENALTY BYU pass interference (Daniel, Robertson) 15 yards to the BYU38, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN VIRGINIA. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:35
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+37
79.1%
Greyson Lambert run for 37 yds to the BYU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
79.0%
Kevin Parks run for no gain to the BYU 1Similar
Q1 13:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
78.7%
Greyson Lambert run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ian Frye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:5179% → 78%
Q1 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
78.8%
Taysom Hill run for 1 yd to the BYU 26Similar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+3
78.6%
Paul Lasike run for 3 yds to the BYU 29Similar
Q1 13:03
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-1
78.3%
Taysom Hill sacked by Henry Coley and Eli Harold for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 29 yds · 4:1022% → 25%
Q1 12:20
1ST & 15
OWN 14
+6
78.0%
Kevin Parks run for 6 yds to the Virg 20Similar
Q1 11:40
2ND & 9
OWN 20
+13
77.6%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Canaan Severin for 13 yds to the Virg 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+10
77.2%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Miles Gooch for 10 yds to the Virg 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-10
76.7%
VIRGINIA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Sadiq Olanrewaju) to the Virg 33Similar
Q1 10:09
1ST & 20
OWN 33
+1
76.7%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Kevin Parks for 1 yd to the Virg 34Similar
Q1 9:30
2ND & 19
OWN 34
+8
76.4%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Kevin Parks for 8 yds to the Virg 42Similar
Q1 9:01
3RD & 11
OWN 42
+6
75.9%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Doni Dowling for 6 yds to the Virg 48Similar
Q1 8:10
4TH & 5
OWN 48
+28
75.3%
Alec Vozenilek punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Mitchell Juergens at the BYU 9 VIRGINIA Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (Micah Kiser) to the BYU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 4FG
11 plays · 66 yds · 3:0076% → 76%
Q1 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
75.5%
Jamaal Williams run for 5 yds to the BYU 29Similar
Q1 7:50
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+3
75.5%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Mitchell Juergens for 3 yds to the BYU 32Similar
Q1 7:30
3RD & 2
OWN 32
+6
75.2%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Mitch Mathews for 6 yds to the BYU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+33
75.7%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Jordan Leslie for 18 yds to the VIRGINIA 44 for a 1ST down VIRGINIA Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Virg 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:59
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+9
75.8%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Jordan Leslie for 9 yds to the Virg 20Similar
Q1 6:45
2ND & 1
OPP 20
+6
75.7%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Jordan Leslie for 6 yds to the Virg 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+6
75.5%
Taysom Hill run for 6 yds to the Virg 8Similar
Q1 6:05
2ND & 4
OPP 8
+3
75.4%
Taysom Hill run for 3 yds to the Virg 5Similar
Q1 5:40
3RD & 1
OPP 5
0
74.8%
Adam Hine run for no gain to the Virg 5Similar
Q1 5:20
4TH & 1
OPP 5
-5
74.3%
BYU Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Virg 10Similar
Q1 5:10
4TH & 6
OPP 10
+28
75.6%
Trevor Samson 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 5FG
14 plays · 69 yds · 5:1525% → 31%
Q1 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
75.3%
Kevin Parks run for 3 yds to the Virg 28Similar
Q1 4:40
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+10
75.0%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Canaan Severin for 10 yds to the Virg 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
74.4%
Kevin Parks run for 2 yds to the Virg 40Similar
Q1 3:40
2ND & 8
OWN 40
0
74.0%
Greyson Lambert pass incomplete to Darius JenningsSimilar
Q1 3:30
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+17
74.3%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Miles Gooch for 17 yds to the BYU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:05
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+28
73.5%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Canaan Severin for 28 yds to the BYU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+7
72.9%
Khalek Shepherd run for 7 yds to the BYU 8Similar
Q1 2:10
2ND & 3
OPP 8
+4
72.5%
Khalek Shepherd run for 4 yds to the BYU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
72.3%
Khalek Shepherd run for 1 yd to the BYU 3Similar
Q1 0:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
71.7%
Greyson Lambert pass incomplete to Miles GoochSimilar
Q1 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
71.7%
Taquan Mizzell run for 2 yds to the BYU 1Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 0
OPP 1
-5
72.1%
VIRGINIA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the BYU 6Similar
Q2 14:55
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
69.1%
Ian Frye 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 6TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:0770% → 76%
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+56
70.0%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Devon Blackmon for 56 yds to the Virg 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+7
71.7%
Taysom Hill run for 7 yds to the Virg 12Similar
Q2 14:15
2ND & 3
OPP 12
0
71.6%
Taysom Hill pass incomplete to Mitch MathewsSimilar
Q2 14:10
3RD & 3
OPP 12
+4
70.9%
Jamaal Williams run for 4 yds to the Virg 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
76.4%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Jordan Leslie for 8 yds for a TD, (Trevor Samson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 7FG
12 plays · 39 yds · 4:0527% → 30%
Q2 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
73.5%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Kevin Parks for 5 yds to the Virg 42Similar
Q2 13:05
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+4
72.5%
Khalek Shepherd run for 4 yds to the Virg 46Similar
Q2 12:40
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+3
72.4%
Khalek Shepherd run for 3 yds to the Virg 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+15
72.0%
BYU Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Skye PoVey) to the BYU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+8
71.7%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Rob Burns for 8 yds to the BYU 28Similar
Q2 11:15
2ND & 2
OPP 28
0
70.8%
Kevin Parks run for no gain to the BYU 28Similar
Q2 10:50
3RD & 2
OPP 28
+2
71.2%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Keeon Johnson for 2 yds to the BYU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
70.3%
Kevin Parks run for 2 yds to the BYU 24Similar
Q2 10:01
2ND & 8
OPP 24
0
70.2%
Greyson Lambert pass incomplete to Kyle DockinsSimilar
Q2 9:50
3RD & 8
OPP 24
0
70.8%
Greyson Lambert pass incomplete to Miles GoochSimilar
Q2 9:43
4TH & 8
OPP 24
+41
69.9%
Ian Frye 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · -3 yds · 1:5371% → 67%
Q2 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
70.6%
Taysom Hill pass incomplete to Jordan LeslieSimilar
Q2 9:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
70.4%
Jamaal Williams run for 10 yds to the BYU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-4
70.7%
Taysom Hill run for 6 yds to the BYU 41 BYU Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the BYU 31Similar
Q2 8:50
1ST & 14
OWN 31
+2
70.2%
Jamaal Williams run for 2 yds to the BYU 33Similar
Q2 8:40
2ND & 12
OWN 33
-15
70.0%
Taysom Hill pass incomplete BYU Penalty, Personal Foul (Ului Lapuaho) to the BYU 18Similar
Q2 8:20
3RD & 27
OWN 18
+4
68.9%
Jamaal Williams run for 4 yds to the BYU 22Similar
Q2 7:50
4TH & 23
OWN 22
0
67.4%
Scott Arellano punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Khalek Shepherd at the Virg 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 9INT
6 plays · 13 yds · 2:1132% → 33%
Q2 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
68.0%
Darius Jennings run for 6 yds to the Virg 36Similar
Q2 7:10
2ND & 4
OWN 36
0
66.9%
Greyson Lambert pass incomplete to Darius JenningsSimilar
Q2 7:03
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+7
67.3%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Miles Gooch for 7 yds to the Virg 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
66.1%
Greyson Lambert pass incomplete to Taquan MizzellSimilar
Q2 6:20
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
66.3%
Taquan Mizzell run for no gain to the Virg 43Similar
Q2 5:39
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+32
66.7%
Greyson Lambert pass intercepted Robertson Daniel return for 32 yds to the Virg 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 10FG
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:0071% → 73%
Q2 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-5
71.0%
BYU Penalty, Delay of Game (Taysom Hill) to the Virg 28Similar
Q2 5:30
1ST & 15
OPP 28
+2
70.5%
Jamaal Williams run for 2 yds to the Virg 26Similar
Q2 5:15
2ND & 13
OPP 26
0
70.5%
Taysom Hill pass incomplete to Devon BlackmonSimilar
Q2 5:05
3RD & 13
OPP 26
+7
68.3%
Taysom Hill run for 7 yds to the Virg 19Similar
Q2 4:39
4TH & 6
OPP 19
+37
72.6%
Trevor Samson 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 11END OF HALF
20 plays · 70 yds · 4:3931% → 38%
Q2 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
69.1%
Darius Jennings run for 5 yds to the Virg 30Similar
Q2 4:10
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
68.3%
Taquan Mizzell run for 3 yds to the Virg 33Similar
Q2 3:20
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
68.1%
Taquan Mizzell run for 3 yds to the Virg 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
67.2%
Greyson Lambert run for 9 yds to the Virg 45Similar
Q2 2:15
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+1
65.3%
Greyson Lambert run for 1 yd to the Virg 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
65.3%
Greyson Lambert pass incomplete to Canaan SeverinSimilar
Q2 1:45
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
65.9%
Greyson Lambert pass incomplete to Andre LevroneSimilar
Q2 1:40
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+17
66.7%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Miles Gooch for 17 yds to the BYU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
64.0%
Greyson Lambert pass incomplete to Miles GoochSimilar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 10
OPP 37
0
64.0%
Greyson Lambert pass incomplete to Kevin ParksSimilar
Q2 1:15
3RD & 10
OPP 37
+15
65.1%
Lambert, Greyson pass incomplete to Jennings, Darius, PENALTY BYU pass interference (Johnson, Jordan) 15 yards to the BYU22, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN VIRGINIA. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
62.9%
Greyson Lambert pass incomplete to Doni DowlingSimilar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+11
63.2%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Kevin Parks for 11 yds to the BYU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
62.8%
Taquan Mizzell run for 3 yds to the BYU 8Similar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 7
OPP 8
+2
62.6%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 2 yds to the BYU 6Similar
Q2 0:17
3RD & 5
OPP 6
+1
64.1%
Kevin Parks run for 1 yd to the BYU 5Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 4
OPP 5
+22
61.7%
Ian Frye 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 12FUMBLE
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:0464% → 62%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
64.3%
Taysom Hill pass incomplete to Jordan LeslieSimilar
Q3 14:50
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
64.1%
Paul Lasike run for 2 yds to the BYU 27Similar
Q3 14:30
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+4
62.2%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Devin Mahina for 4 yds to the BYU 31Similar
Q3 13:56
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+1
62.0%
Scott Arellano punt for 65 yds , Khalek Shepherd returns for 1 yd to the Virg 5 Khalek Shepherd fumbled, recovered by VirgSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 22 yds · 3:1138% → 38%
Q3 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+1
62.5%
Kevin Parks run for 1 yd to the Virg 6Similar
Q3 13:25
2ND & 9
OWN 6
+13
62.4%
Kevin Parks run for 13 yds to the Virg 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
61.3%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Khalek Shepherd for no gain to the Virg 19Similar
Q3 12:15
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+5
61.6%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Darius Jennings for 5 yds to the Virg 24Similar
Q3 11:30
3RD & 5
OWN 24
+3
61.7%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Miles Gooch for 3 yds to the Virg 27Similar
Q3 10:45
4TH & 2
OWN 27
+25
62.4%
Alec Vozenilek punt for 47 yds , Devon Blackmon returns for 25 yds to the Virg 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 14TD
7 plays · 49 yds · 1:4365% → 79%
Q3 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
64.6%
Jamaal Williams run for 5 yds to the Virg 44Similar
Q3 10:25
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+15
64.7%
Hill, Taysom pass incomplete to Mathews, Mitch, PENALTY VIRGINIA pass interference (Hoskey, DreQuan) 15 yards to the VIRGINIA29, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BYU. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
65.8%
Taysom Hill pass incomplete to Jordan LeslieSimilar
Q3 10:05
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+8
65.8%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Terenn Houk for 8 yds to the Virg 21Similar
Q3 9:50
3RD & 2
OPP 21
+7
64.1%
Taysom Hill run for 7 yds to the Virg 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-1
65.6%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Devon Blackmon for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 15Similar
Q3 9:02
2ND & 11
OPP 15
+15
78.7%
Taysom Hill run for 15 yds for a TD, (Trevor Samson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 15FUMBLE
6 plays · 29 yds · 1:3926% → 28%
Q3 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+20
73.9%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Andre Levrone for 20 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:20
1ST & 10
50
+5
70.5%
Khalek Shepherd run for 5 yds to the BYU 45Similar
Q3 8:01
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+4
70.4%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Khalek Shepherd for 4 yds to the BYU 41Similar
Q3 7:40
3RD & 1
OPP 41
0
70.2%
Khalek Shepherd run for no gain to the BYU 41Similar
Q3 7:15
4TH & 1
OPP 41
+1
72.0%
Greyson Lambert run for 1 yd to the BYU 40 Greyson Lambert fumbled, recovered by BYU Tomasi LaulileSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · -15 yds · 1:0777% → 73%
Q3 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
77.1%
Taysom Hill run for a loss of 5 yards to the BYU 35Similar
Q3 6:40
2ND & 15
OWN 35
-10
75.1%
Taysom Hill sacked by Max Valles for a loss of 10 yards to the BYU 25Similar
Q3 6:20
3RD & 25
OWN 25
0
73.7%
Taysom Hill pass incomplete to Mitchell JuergensSimilar
Q3 6:08
4TH & 25
OWN 25
0
73.1%
Scott Arellano punt for 63 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Virg 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 17PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:4026% → 25%
Q3 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-6
73.9%
Lambert, Greyson pass incomplete, PENALTY VIRGINIA holding 6 yards to the VIRGINIA6, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:02
1ST & 16
OWN 6
-1
74.4%
Kevin Parks run for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 5Similar
Q3 5:20
2ND & 17
OWN 5
+6
74.5%
Taquan Mizzell run for 6 yds to the Virg 11Similar
Q3 4:40
3RD & 11
OWN 11
0
74.8%
Greyson Lambert pass incomplete to Canaan SeverinSimilar
Q3 4:28
4TH & 11
OWN 11
0
75.5%
Alec Vozenilek punt for 62 yds, fair catch by Devon Blackmon at the BYU 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 18TD
10 plays · 73 yds · 2:0576% → 89%
Q3 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
75.6%
Taysom Hill run for 7 yds to the BYU 34Similar
Q3 4:01
2ND & 3
OWN 34
+13
76.9%
Jamaal Williams run for 13 yds to the BYU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
77.7%
Mitchell Juergens run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 3:30
2ND & 7
50
+14
77.9%
Jamaal Williams run for 14 yds to the Virg 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
78.3%
Taysom Hill pass incomplete to Devon BlackmonSimilar
Q3 3:10
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+16
78.2%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Mitch Mathews for 16 yds to the Virg 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
79.0%
Taysom Hill pass incomplete to Mitchell JuergensSimilar
Q3 2:50
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+7
79.0%
Taysom Hill run for 7 yds to the Virg 13Similar
Q3 2:30
3RD & 3
OPP 13
+11
77.8%
Taysom Hill run for 11 yds to the Virg 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
88.7%
Jamaal Williams run for 2 yds for a TD, (Trevor Samson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 19FG
13 plays · 46 yds · 5:0913% → 15%
Q3 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
87.3%
Taquan Mizzell run for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 24Similar
Q3 1:45
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
87.6%
Greyson Lambert pass incomplete to Andre LevroneSimilar
Q3 1:30
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+11
88.3%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Miles Gooch for 11 yds to the Virg 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+20
86.5%
Matt Johns pass complete to Keeon Johnson for 5 yds to the BYU 40 for a 1ST down BYU Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Sae Tautu) to the BYU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+9
84.7%
Matt Johns pass complete to Kevin Parks for 9 yds to the BYU 36Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 1
OPP 36
0
84.4%
Taquan Mizzell run for no gain to the BYU 36Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 36
-3
84.8%
Kevin Parks run for a loss of 3 yards to the BYU 39Similar
Q4 14:20
4TH & 4
OPP 39
+8
86.3%
Matt Johns pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 8 yds to the BYU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-3
84.1%
Darius Jennings run for a loss of 3 yards to the BYU 34Similar
Q4 13:10
2ND & 13
OPP 34
0
84.7%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Khalek ShepherdSimilar
Q4 12:50
3RD & 13
OPP 34
+5
86.5%
Matt Johns run for 5 yds to the BYU 29Similar
Q4 12:14
4TH & 8
OPP 29
+46
84.9%
Ian Frye 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 20TD
7 plays · 66 yds · 1:5788% → 96%
Q4 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
88.0%
Jamaal Williams run for 1 yd to the BYU 35Similar
Q4 11:40
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+6
87.7%
Jamaal Williams run for 6 yds to the BYU 41Similar
Q4 11:02
3RD & 3
OWN 41
+4
88.6%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Mitch Mathews for 4 yds to the BYU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
89.8%
Taysom Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:35
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+5
89.6%
Taysom Hill run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 10:17
3RD & 5
50
+50
96.0%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Mitchell Juergens for 50 yds for a TD, (Trevor Samson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 21TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:116% → 17%
Q4 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
94.5%
Matt Johns pass complete to Darius Jennings for 15 yds to the Virg 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
94.4%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Canaan SeverinSimilar
Q4 9:45
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
94.5%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Andre LevroneSimilar
Q4 9:40
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+15
94.6%
Matt Johns pass complete to Darius Jennings for 15 yds to the BYU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+14
94.3%
Matt Johns pass complete to Keeon Johnson for 14 yds to the BYU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+7
93.7%
Matt Johns pass complete to Andre Levrone for 7 yds to the BYU 24Similar
Q4 8:45
2ND & 3
OPP 24
+3
93.5%
Khalek Shepherd run for 3 yds to the BYU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+12
93.9%
Khalek Shepherd run for 12 yds to the BYU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
82.7%
Khalek Shepherd run for 9 yds for a TD, (Ian Frye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 22DOWNS
9 plays · 13 yds · 1:555% → 4%
Q4 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+9
95.1%
Matt Johns run for 9 yds to the Virg 43Similar
Q4 7:30
2ND & 1
OWN 43
+3
94.9%
Khalek Shepherd run for 3 yds to the Virg 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-15
95.1%
VIRGINIA Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (-15 Yards) to the Virg 31Similar
Q4 6:50
1ST & 25
OWN 31
+16
95.7%
Matt Johns pass complete to Doni Dowling for 16 yds to the Virg 47Similar
Q4 6:20
2ND & 9
OWN 47
0
95.4%
Matt Johns pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:00
3RD & 9
OWN 47
0
95.6%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Miles GoochSimilar
Q4 5:53
4TH & 9
OWN 47
0
95.8%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Andre LevroneSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 6 yds · 0:3297% → 98%
Q4 5:53
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
97.0%
Jamaal Williams run for no gain to the Virg 47Similar
Q4 5:48
2ND & 10
OPP 47
-2
97.4%
Taysom Hill run for a loss of 2 yards to the Virg 49 Taysom Hill fumbled, recovered by BYU Taysom HillSimilar
Q4 5:41
3RD & 12
OPP 49
+8
97.5%
Taysom Hill run for 8 yds to the Virg 41Similar
Q4 5:21
4TH & 4
OPP 41
0
97.6%
Scott Arellano punt for 39 yds, downed at the Virg 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 24TD
16 plays · 98 yds · 3:331% → 11%
Q4 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 2
-1
98.6%
Matt Johns pass complete to Kevin Parks for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 1Similar
Q4 4:40
2ND & 11
OWN 1
+3
99.1%
Khalek Shepherd run for 3 yds to the Virg 4Similar
Q4 4:20
3RD & 8
OWN 4
+19
99.2%
Matt Johns pass complete to Andre Levrone for 19 yds to the Virg 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
99.1%
Matt Johns pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:55
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+7
99.1%
Matt Johns pass complete to Canaan Severin for 7 yds to the Virg 30Similar
Q4 3:45
3RD & 3
OWN 30
0
99.1%
Matt Johns pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:40
4TH & 3
OWN 30
+11
99.1%
Matt Johns pass complete to Doni Dowling for 11 yds to the Virg 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
99.1%
Matt Johns run for 8 yds to the Virg 49Similar
Q4 3:00
2ND & 2
OWN 49
0
99.0%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Andre LevroneSimilar
Q4 2:55
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+9
99.1%
Khalek Shepherd run for 9 yds to the BYU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+10
99.1%
Khalek Shepherd run for 10 yds to the BYU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
99.0%
Matt Johns pass complete to Doni Dowling for 3 yds to the BYU 29Similar
Q4 2:05
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+15
98.8%
Johns, Matt pass incomplete to Levrone, Andre, PENALTY BYU pass interference 15 yards to the BYU14, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN VIRGINIA. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
98.7%
Johns, Matt pass incomplete to Dowling, Doni, PENALTY BYU pass interference 3 yards to the BYU11, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN VIRGINIA. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:48
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
89.5%
Matt Johns pass complete to Kyle Dockins for 11 yds for a TD, (Ian Frye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 25END OF GAME
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:4897% → 97%
Q4 1:48
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-1
97.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 45Similar
Q4 1:10
2ND & 11
OPP 45
-1
97.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 46Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 12
OPP 46
-1
97.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 9:02
Taysom Hill run for 15 yds for a TD, (Trevor Samson KICK)
+13.1
TD · Q4 7:50
Adam Hine 99 Yd Kickoff Return (Trevor Samson Kick)
+12.4
TD · Q4 8:06
Khalek Shepherd run for 9 yds for a TD, (Ian Frye KICK)
-11.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com