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RICH

Richmond 13 at Virginia 45

UVA
2014 · Week 2 · Sep 6, 2014 · Scott Stadium
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Win probability · UVA
modelUVA aheadRICH aheadconfidence bandkey playUVA scoreRICH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG-2.3UVA 92.3%Peter Yoder 32 yd FG GOODAWAY 6 - HOME 21 · Q3 6:49
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 6:49 · Peter Yoder 32 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+42.0+21.00−21.0−42.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 106Pregame prior+19.0Home team on offense+14.1Score differential+5.4Garbage-time factor+3.2Blowout margin+1.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:21: Matt Johns pass complete to Canaan Severin for 4 yds for a TD, (Ian Frye KICK) — UVA win probability +3.1 pts (now 91%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 13:20: Taquan Mizzell run for 3 yds for a TD, (Ian Frye KICK) — UVA win probability +4.8 pts (now 95%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 4:39: Ian Frye 22 yd FG GOOD — UVA win probability +2.4 pts (now 96%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 3:55: Eli Harold 22 Yd Fumble Return (Ian Frye Kick) — UVA win probability +3.0 pts (now 99%) (top driver: RICH has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 0:37: Michael Rocco run for 6 yds for a TD, (Mac McCall KICK) — RICH win probability +2.8 pts (now 4%) (top driver: RICH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UVA made the numbers' call on 2 of 5RICH made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 10:03RICH 4th & 8 at UVA 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 13.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.9%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.0%
    86% to make
    Punt
    12.5%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:54UVA 4th & 2 at RICH 48, down 3
    Close callPunted · 86.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.9%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:51RICH 4th & 8 at RICH 22, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.0%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.1%
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:08UVA 4th & 2 at UVA 35, up 4
    Close callPunted · 83.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.7%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:49RICH 4th & 6 at RICH 18, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.8%−0.2
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:21RICH 4th & 1 at RICH 34, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    12.5%−0.4
    average punt
  7. Q3 13:20RICH 4th & 4 at UVA 41, down 18
    Close callPunted · 7.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    6.8%−1.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    7.2%−0.8
    average punt
  8. Q3 6:49RICH 4th & 5 at UVA 15, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 5.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.1%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    5.4%
    83% to make
    Punt
    1.4%−4.0
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:39UVA 4th & 2 at RICH 5, up 15
    Close callKicked a field goal · 94.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.4%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.6%−0.8
    92% to make
    Punt
    89.4%−5.0
    average punt
  10. Q3 2:25UVA 4th & 9 at RICH 29, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.1%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.2%
    58% to make
    Punt
    98.4%−0.8
    average punt
  11. Q4 10:56UVA 4th & 20 at RICH 39, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.3%−0.2
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    99.5%−<0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UVA made the numbers' call on 5 of 6RICH made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 0:32UVA Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 5:21UVA Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 13:20UVA Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 3:55UVA Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 0:37RICH Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 12:38UVA Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 1:49UVA Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
RICHDrive 1FG
12 plays · 53 yds · 4:578% → 10%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
91.8%
Michael Strauss pass complete to Stephen Barnette for 5 yds to the Richm 40Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+17
91.8%
Michael Strauss pass complete to Rashad Ponder for 17 yds to the Virg 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
91.8%
Michael Strauss pass complete to Rashad Ponder for 7 yds to the Virg 36Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 36
+2
91.8%
Seth Fisher run for 2 yds to the Virg 34Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+5
91.8%
Michael Rocco run for 5 yds to the Virg 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-3
91.8%
Michael Strauss sacked by Max Valles and Henry Coley for a loss of 3 yards to the Virg 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 13
OPP 32
+18
91.8%
Michael Strauss pass complete to Stephen Barnette for 18 yds to the Virg 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
91.8%
Michael Strauss pass incomplete to Stephen Barnette, broken up by Maurice CanadySimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+2
91.8%
Michael Strauss pass complete to Stephen Barnette for 2 yds to the Virg 12Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 12
0
91.8%
Michael Strauss pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 10:03
4TH & 8
OPP 12
+28
90.3%
Peter Yoder 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q1 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
90.4%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Kevin Parks for 4 yds to the Virg 48Similar
Q1 9:54
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+4
90.4%
Kevin Parks run for 4 yds to the Richm 48Similar
Q1 9:54
3RD & 2
OPP 48
0
90.4%
Greyson Lambert pass incomplete to Kevin ParksSimilar
Q1 9:54
4TH & 2
OPP 48
0
90.3%
Alec Vozenilek punt for 48 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICHDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 1:4710% → 11%
Q1 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
89.8%
Seth Fisher run for a loss of 1 yard to the Richm 19Similar
Q1 8:38
2ND & 11
OWN 19
-7
89.8%
Michael Strauss sacked by Mike Moore for a loss of 7 yards to the Richm 12Similar
Q1 8:38
3RD & 18
OWN 12
-5
89.9%
RICHMOND Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Richm 7Similar
Q1 6:51
3RD & 23
OWN 7
+15
89.4%
Michael Strauss pass complete to Rashad Ponder for 15 yds to the Richm 22Similar
Q1 6:51
4TH & 8
OWN 22
+54
89.4%
D.J. Helkowski punt for 44 yds, downed at the VIRGINIA 34 VIRGINIA Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the Virg 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 4TD
14 plays · 76 yds · 5:4689% → 89%
Q1 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
89.0%
Khalek Shepherd run for 4 yds to the Virg 28Similar
Q1 6:18
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+3
89.0%
Khalek Shepherd run for 3 yds to the Virg 31Similar
Q1 6:18
3RD & 3
OWN 31
+7
89.0%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 7 yds to the Virg 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
89.2%
Taquan Mizzell run for 3 yds to the Virg 41Similar
Q1 6:18
2ND & 7
OWN 41
0
89.3%
Greyson Lambert pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 6:18
3RD & 7
OWN 41
+19
89.0%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Darius Jennings for 19 yds to the Richm 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
89.4%
Taquan Mizzell run for 3 yds to the Richm 37Similar
Q1 6:18
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+10
89.4%
Greyson Lambert run for 10 yds to the Richm 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
89.6%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Rob Burns for 3 yds to the Richm 24Similar
Q1 6:18
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+1
89.6%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Darius Jennings for 1 yd to the Richm 23Similar
Q1 6:18
3RD & 6
OPP 23
+8
89.4%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 8 yds to the Richm 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+6
89.6%
Khalek Shepherd run for 6 yds to the Richm 9Similar
Q1 6:18
2ND & 4
OPP 9
+6
89.6%
Kevin Parks run for 6 yds to the Richm 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
89.1%
Kevin Parks run for 3 yds for a TD, (Ian Frye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICHDrive 5INT
6 plays · 44 yds · 0:3212% → 13%
Q1 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
88.5%
Michael Strauss pass complete to Stephen Barnette for a loss of 1 yard to the Richm 24Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+1
88.4%
Rashad Ponder run for 1 yd to the Richm 25Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+14
88.6%
Michael Strauss pass complete to Rashad Ponder for 14 yds to the Richm 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+30
88.0%
Michael Strauss pass complete to Reggie Diggs for 30 yds to the Virg 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
87.5%
Michael Strauss pass intercepted Quin Blanding return for no gain to the Virg 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 25 yds · 0:0088% → 87%
Q2 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+4
87.6%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 4 yds to the Virg 14Similar
Q2 13:08
2ND & 6
OWN 14
-2
87.6%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Keeon Johnson for a loss of 2 yards to the Virg 12Similar
Q2 13:08
3RD & 8
OWN 12
+15
87.3%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Doni Dowling for 15 yds to the Virg 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
87.7%
Kevin Parks run for 3 yds to the Virg 30Similar
Q2 13:08
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+1
87.7%
Kevin Parks run for 1 yd to the Virg 31Similar
Q2 13:08
3RD & 6
OWN 31
+4
87.5%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Andre Levrone for 4 yds to the Virg 35Similar
Q2 13:08
4TH & 2
OWN 35
+5
87.3%
Alec Vozenilek punt for 56 yds , Dominique Miller returns for 5 yds to the Richm 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICHDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q2 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-5
86.9%
Seth Fisher run for a loss of 5 yards to the Richm 9Similar
Q2 9:49
2ND & 15
OWN 9
+9
87.2%
Seth Fisher run for 9 yds to the Richm 18Similar
Q2 9:49
3RD & 6
OWN 18
0
87.2%
Michael Strauss pass incomplete to Reggie Diggs, broken up by DreQuan HoskeySimilar
Q2 9:49
4TH & 6
OWN 18
+30
87.5%
D.J. Helkowski punt for 47 yds , Khalek Shepherd returns for 30 yds to the Richm 35 Khalek Shepherd fumbled, forced by David Jones, recovered by Richm Graham Latham VIRGINIA Penalty, illegal block ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICHDrive 8FUMBLE
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q2 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
86.3%
Michael Strauss sacked by Eli Harold for 0 yards to the Richm 35 Michael Strauss fumbled, recovered by Virg Max Valles , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 9TD
6 plays · 35 yds · 2:3888% → 91%
Q2 7:59
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
87.8%
Kevin Parks run for 3 yds to the Richm 32Similar
Q2 7:59
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+11
87.8%
Kevin Parks run for 11 yds to the Richm 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:59
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+12
87.8%
Matt Johns run for 12 yds to the Richm 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
87.8%
Kevin Parks run for 3 yds to the Richm 6Similar
Q2 7:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
87.8%
Kevin Parks run for 2 yds to the Richm 4Similar
Q2 5:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
90.8%
Matt Johns pass complete to Canaan Severin for 4 yds for a TD, (Ian Frye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICHDrive 10FUMBLE
16 plays · 70 yds · 4:1410% → 11%
Q2 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
90.1%
Michael Strauss pass complete to Jacobi Green for 9 yds to the Richm 34Similar
Q2 5:21
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
89.6%
Jacobi Green run for no gain to the Richm 34Similar
Q2 5:21
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
89.8%
T.J. Moon run for no gain to the Richm 34Similar
Q2 5:21
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+5
90.2%
Michael Rocco pass complete to Seth Fisher for 5 yds to the Richm 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+29
89.7%
Michael Strauss pass complete to Rashad Ponder for 29 yds to the Virg 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
88.9%
Michael Strauss pass incomplete to Stephen Barnette, broken up by Quin BlandingSimilar
Q2 5:21
2ND & 10
OPP 32
0
88.9%
Michael Strauss pass incomplete to Stephen BarnetteSimilar
Q2 5:21
3RD & 10
OPP 32
+16
89.4%
Michael Strauss pass complete to Stephen Barnette for 16 yds to the Virg 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
88.7%
Michael Strauss pass incomplete to Rashad Ponder, broken up by Maurice CanadySimilar
Q2 5:21
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+11
88.7%
Michael Strauss pass complete to Stephen Barnette for 11 yds to the Virg 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:21
1ST & 0
OPP 5
+3
88.3%
Seth Fisher rush for loss of 1 yard to the VA6 (Moore, M;Harold, E), PENALTY VA offside 3 yards to the VA2, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:21
1ST & 0
OPP 2
+1
88.3%
VIRGINIA Penalty, illegal formation (1 Yards) to the Virg 1Similar
Q2 1:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
89.2%
T.J. Moon run for no gain to the Virg 1Similar
Q2 1:07
2ND & 0
OPP 1
-4
88.8%
T.J. Moon run for a loss of 4 yards to the Virg 5 T.J. Moon fumbled, forced by Henry Coley, recovered by Virg Brandon PhelpsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 11END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-1
90.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 12TD
6 plays · 61 yds · 1:4091% → 95%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
90.5%
Kevin Parks run for 4 yds to the Virg 43Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+8
90.6%
Kevin Parks run for 8 yds to the Richm 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
90.6%
Kevin Parks run for 1 yd to the Richm 48Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+45
90.6%
Matt Johns pass complete to Darius Jennings for 45 yds to the Richm 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
95.4%
Taquan Mizzell run for 3 yds for a TD, (Ian Frye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICHDrive 13PUNT
11 plays · 47 yds · 0:006% → 7%
Q3 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+7
93.9%
Michael Strauss pass complete to Rashad Ponder for 7 yds to the Richm 19Similar
Q3 13:20
2ND & 3
OWN 19
+8
93.8%
Michael Strauss pass complete to Stephen Barnette for 8 yds to the Richm 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+9
93.8%
Michael Strauss pass complete to Hunter Westfall for 9 yds to the Richm 36Similar
Q3 13:20
2ND & 1
OWN 36
+2
93.2%
Seth Fisher run for 2 yds to the Richm 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
93.5%
Michael Strauss pass complete to Reggie Diggs for 8 yds to the Richm 46Similar
Q3 13:20
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+7
93.1%
Michael Strauss pass complete to Rashad Ponder for 7 yds to the Virg 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
93.1%
Michael Strauss pass incomplete to Ayo Ogunniyi, broken up by Quin BlandingSimilar
Q3 13:20
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
93.4%
Michael Strauss pass incomplete to Brian BrownSimilar
Q3 13:20
3RD & 10
OPP 47
+6
93.6%
Michael Strauss pass complete to Seth Fisher for 6 yds to the Virg 41Similar
Q3 13:20
4TH & 4
OPP 41
0
93.3%
D.J. Helkowski punt for 39 yds, downed at the Virg 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 14INT
3 plays · 17 yds · 0:0095% → 96%
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+3
95.4%
Kevin Parks run for 3 yds to the Virg 5Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 7
OWN 5
+14
95.4%
Matt Johns pass complete to Darius Jennings for 14 yds to the Virg 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
96.0%
Matt Johns pass intercepted Ayo Ogunniyi return for no gain to the Richm 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICHDrive 15FG
8 plays · 47 yds · 2:085% → 8%
Q3 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+15
94.8%
Michael Strauss pass incomplete to Reggie Diggs, PENALTY VA pass interference (Harris, T) 15 yards to the VA47, 1ST DOWN RICHMOND, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:57
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
94.5%
Michael Strauss pass incomplete to Stephen BarnetteSimilar
Q3 8:57
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+14
94.6%
Michael Strauss pass complete to Stephen Barnette for 14 yds to the Virg 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:57
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+13
94.1%
Michael Strauss pass complete to Seth Fisher for 13 yds to the Virg 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:57
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
93.9%
Michael Strauss run for 1 yd to the Virg 19Similar
Q3 8:57
2ND & 9
OPP 19
0
93.9%
Michael Strauss pass incomplete to Sean FitzpatrickSimilar
Q3 8:57
3RD & 9
OPP 19
+4
94.6%
Michael Strauss pass complete to Sean Fitzpatrick for 4 yds to the Virg 15Similar
Q3 6:49
4TH & 5
OPP 15
+32
92.3%
Peter Yoder 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 16FG
5 plays · 8 yds · 2:1094% → 96%
Q3 6:49
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
94.2%
Khalek Shepherd run for 4 yds to the Richm 9Similar
Q3 6:49
2ND & 6
OPP 9
+2
94.2%
Khalek Shepherd run for 2 yds to the Richm 7Similar
Q3 6:49
3RD & 4
OPP 7
+2
93.9%
Matt Johns pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 2 yds to the Richm 5Similar
Q3 4:39
4TH & 2
OPP 5
+22
96.4%
Ian Frye 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICHDrive 17FUMBLE RETURN TD
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:444% → 1%
Q3 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+12
95.8%
Michael Strauss pass complete to Stephen Barnette for 12 yds to the Richm 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-22
98.8%
Eli Harold 22 Yd Fumble Return (Ian Frye Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICHDrive 18INT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
98.9%
RICHMOND Penalty, substitution infraction (-5 Yards) to the Richm 20Similar
Q3 3:55
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+6
98.5%
Michael Strauss pass complete to Reggie Diggs for 6 yds to the Richm 26Similar
Q3 3:55
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
98.9%
Michael Strauss pass intercepted Daquan Romero return for no gain to the Richm 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 19MISSED FG
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:5299% → 99%
Q3 3:17
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
99.4%
Taquan Mizzell run for 1 yd to the Richm 29Similar
Q3 3:17
2ND & 9
OPP 29
0
99.4%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Doni DowlingSimilar
Q3 3:17
3RD & 9
OPP 29
0
99.4%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Doni Dowling, broken up by Justin WilliamsonSimilar
Q3 2:25
4TH & 9
OPP 29
+46
99.3%
Ian Frye 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICHDrive 20TD
10 plays · 71 yds · 1:481% → 4%
Q3 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
98.9%
Jeremiah Hamlin run for 2 yds to the Richm 31Similar
Q3 2:25
2ND & 8
OWN 31
-7
98.9%
Jacobi Green run for a loss of 7 yards to the Richm 24 RICHMOND Penalty, face mask (0 yards) ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 2:25
3RD & 15
OWN 24
+36
98.5%
Michael Rocco pass complete to Reggie Diggs for 36 yds to the Virg 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:25
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
98.9%
Michael Rocco pass incomplete to Stephen BarnetteSimilar
Q3 2:25
2ND & 10
OPP 40
-5
98.9%
RICHMOND Penalty, false start (Austin Gund) to the Virg 45Similar
Q3 2:25
2ND & 15
OPP 45
0
98.7%
Michael Rocco pass incomplete to Brian Brown, broken up by Henry ColeySimilar
Q3 2:25
3RD & 15
OPP 45
+39
98.8%
Michael Rocco pass complete to Stephen Barnette for 39 yds to the Virg 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
98.7%
Michael Rocco pass incomplete to Stephen Barnette, broken up by Tim HarrisSimilar
Q3 2:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
98.7%
Michael Rocco pass incomplete to Reggie DiggsSimilar
Q3 0:37
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
95.9%
Michael Rocco run for 6 yds for a TD, (Mac McCall KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 21TD
8 plays · 60 yds · 2:5997% → 100%
Q3 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
97.1%
Khalek Shepherd run for 3 yds to the Virg 43Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+13
97.4%
Khalek Shepherd run for 13 yds to the Richm 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
97.5%
Taquan Mizzell run for 1 yd to the Richm 43Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+5
97.4%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Doni Dowling for 5 yds to the Richm 38Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 38
+5
97.4%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 5 yds to the Richm 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
97.5%
Taquan Mizzell run for 4 yds to the Richm 29Similar
Q4 12:38
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+29
99.6%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Canaan Severin for 29 yds for a TD, (Ian Frye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICHDrive 22INT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
99.3%
Jeremiah Hamlin run for no gain to the Richm 19Similar
Q4 12:38
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+4
99.3%
Jeremiah Hamlin run for 4 yds to the Richm 23Similar
Q4 12:38
3RD & 6
OWN 23
+1
99.3%
Michael Rocco pass intercepted Tim Harris return for 1 yd to the Richm 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 23PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
99.6%
Taquan Mizzell run for 1 yd to the Richm 28Similar
Q4 10:56
2ND & 9
OPP 28
+2
99.6%
David Watford run for 2 yds to the Richm 26Similar
Q4 10:56
3RD & 7
OPP 26
-8
99.6%
David Watford sacked by Omar Howard for a loss of 8 yards to the Richm 34Similar
Q4 10:56
4TH & 15
OPP 34
-5
99.6%
VIRGINIA Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Richm 39Similar
Q4 10:56
4TH & 20
OPP 39
0
99.6%
Alec Vozenilek punt for 38 yds, downed at the Richm 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICHDrive 24FUMBLE
10 plays · 44 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+5
99.6%
VIRGINIA Penalty, Defensive offside (Andrew Brown) to the Richm 6Similar
Q4 8:47
1ST & 5
OWN 6
0
99.6%
Michael Rocco pass incomplete to James PavikSimilar
Q4 8:47
2ND & 5
OWN 6
+32
99.6%
Jeremiah Hamlin run for 32 yds to the Richm 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
99.6%
Jeremiah Hamlin run for 6 yds to the Richm 44Similar
Q4 8:47
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+2
99.6%
Jeremiah Hamlin run for 2 yds to the Richm 46Similar
Q4 8:47
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+13
99.6%
Michael Rocco pass complete to Jeremiah Hamlin for 13 yds to the Virg 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:47
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-10
99.6%
Jeremiah Hamlin rush for 2 yards to the VA39 (Bradshaw, Z;Kiser, M), PENALTY RICHMOND holding (Chad Kolumber) 10 yards to the RICHMOND49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:47
1ST & 20
OWN 49
+3
99.5%
Michael Rocco run for 3 yds to the Virg 48Similar
Q4 8:47
2ND & 17
OPP 48
+4
99.5%
Michael Rocco pass complete to Rashad Ponder for 4 yds to the Virg 44Similar
Q4 8:47
3RD & 13
OPP 44
-11
99.6%
Michael Rocco run for a loss of 11 yards to the Richm 45 Michael Rocco fumbled, recovered by Virg Trent CorneySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 25TD
9 plays · 45 yds · 3:07100% → 100%
Q4 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
99.8%
Daniel Hamm run for 5 yds to the Richm 40Similar
Q4 4:56
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+2
99.8%
Daniel Hamm run for 2 yds to the Richm 38Similar
Q4 4:56
3RD & 3
OPP 38
+3
99.8%
Daniel Hamm run for 3 yds to the Richm 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
99.8%
David Watford pass complete to Jamil Kamara for 6 yds to the Richm 29Similar
Q4 4:56
2ND & 4
OPP 29
+7
99.8%
Daniel Hamm run for 7 yds to the Richm 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
99.8%
Daniel Hamm run for 4 yds to the Richm 18Similar
Q4 4:56
2ND & 6
OPP 18
+8
99.8%
Daniel Hamm run for 8 yds to the Richm 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+9
99.8%
Daniel Hamm run for 9 yds to the Richm 1Similar
Q4 1:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
Daniel Hamm run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ian Frye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICHDrive 26END OF GAME
6 plays · 41 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
100.0%
T.J. Moon run for 5 yds to the Richm 30Similar
Q4 1:49
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
99.9%
T.J. Moon run for 2 yds to the Richm 32Similar
Q4 1:49
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+27
99.9%
T.J. Moon run for 27 yds to the Virg 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
99.9%
T.J. Moon run for 3 yds to the Virg 38Similar
Q4 1:49
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+4
99.9%
T.J. Moon run for 4 yds to the Virg 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 13:20
Taquan Mizzell run for 3 yds for a TD, (Ian Frye KICK)
+4.8
TD · Q2 5:21
Matt Johns pass complete to Canaan Severin for 4 yds for a TD, (Ian Frye KICK)
+3.1
TD · Q3 3:55
Eli Harold 22 Yd Fumble Return (Ian Frye Kick)
+3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com