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UCLA

UCLA 28 at Virginia 20

UVA
2014 · Week 1 · Aug 30, 2014 · Scott Stadium
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Win probability · UVA
modelUVA aheadUCLA aheadconfidence bandkey playUVA scoreUCLA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 11:05 · Matt Mengel punt for 45 yds , Khalek Shepherd returns for no gain to the Virg 29
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+38.5+19.30−19.3−38.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 61Pregame prior−31.5Home team on offense−4.2Score differential−1.4Garbage-time factor−1.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:55: Randall Goforth 75 Yd Fumble Return (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick) — UCLA win probability +8.3 pts (now 84%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:20: Eric Kendricks 37 Yd Interception Return (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick) — UCLA win probability +4.7 pts (now 90%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:52: Andre Levrone 29 Yd pass from Matt Johns (Ian Frye Kick) — UVA win probability +6.8 pts (now 18%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 7:33: Darius Jennings 23 Yd pass from Matt Johns (Ian Frye Kick) — UVA win probability +12.0 pts (now 30%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  5. TD · Q3 1:02: Brett Hundley 6 Yd Run (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick) — UCLA win probability +8.2 pts (now 87%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UVA made the numbers' call on 7 of 12UCLA made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 13:56UCLA 4th & 10 at UVA 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 86.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.0%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.0%
    62% to make
    Punt
    85.7%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:11UVA 4th & 8 at UCLA 40, tied
    Close callPunted · 15.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.8%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    15.7%−<0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    15.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:52UCLA 4th & 20 at UCLA 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.2%−0.4
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:45UVA 4th & 6 at UVA 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.9%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.9%
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:38UCLA 4th & 7 at UCLA 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.2%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.4%
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:28UVA 4th & 1 at UVA 33, tied
    Close callPunted · 20.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.7%−0.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:42UCLA 4th & 12 at UVA 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.0%−0.4
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    77.8%−0.5
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    78.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 12:11UVA 4th & 7 at UVA 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.6%−0.4
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.1%
    average punt
  9. Q2 11:05UCLA 4th & 12 at UCLA 26, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.2%−0.9
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.1%
    average punt
  10. Q2 8:35UVA 4th & 5 at UCLA 18, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 19.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.5%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    19.8%
    79% to make
    Punt
    15.7%−4.1
    average punt
  11. Q2 6:37UCLA 4th & 4 at UCLA 25, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.4%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.4%
    average punt
  12. Q3 13:20UVA 4th & 8 at UVA 14, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.1%−0.7
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.8%
    average punt
  13. Q3 11:49UCLA 4th & 5 at UVA 35, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 83.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    83.7%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    83.3%−0.4
    45% to make
    Punt
    82.8%−0.9
    average punt
  14. Q3 8:38UVA 4th & 2 at UCLA 36, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    15.3%−1.5
    42% to make
    Punt
    15.0%−1.9
    average punt
  15. Q3 5:22UCLA 4th & 3 at UVA 45, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 72.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    70.4%−3.6
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    72.4%−1.6
    average punt
  16. Q3 3:57UVA 4th & 7 at UVA 23, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.5%−1.7
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.2%
    average punt
  17. Q4 14:14UVA 4th & 1 at UVA 34, down 11
    Close callPunted · 13.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.8%−0.8
    average punt
  18. Q4 10:45UCLA 4th & 1 at UVA 27, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    86.3%−2.1
    62% to make
    Punt
    81.7%−6.7
    average punt
  19. Q4 8:25UVA 4th & 8 at UCLA 31, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.6%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    11.3%−0.3
    54% to make
    Punt
    10.1%−1.4
    average punt
  20. Q4 6:47UVA 4th & 3 at UCLA 10, down 11
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsKicked a field goal · 12.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.2%
    49% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    10.6%−1.6
    88% to make
    Punt
    6.6%−5.6
    average punt
  21. Q4 5:55UCLA 4th & 13 at UCLA 9, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.2%−4.1
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.3%
    average punt
  22. Q4 3:20UVA 4th & 8 at UCLA 17, down 8
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.7 ptsWent for it · 14.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.1%−1.7
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    12.8%
    80% to make
    Punt
    5.4%−7.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UVA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2UCLA made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q2 13:35UCLA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 2:55UCLA Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:20UCLA Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:52UVA Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 7:33UVA Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 1:02UCLA Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UCLADrive 1MISSED FG
6 plays · 48 yds · 0:5689% → 88%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+48
11.5%
Brett Hundley pass complete to Eldridge Massington for 48 yds to the Virg 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:25
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
11.7%
Jordon James run for no gain to the Virg 27Similar
Q1 14:04
2ND & 10
OPP 27
0
11.8%
Brett Hundley pass incomplete to Logan SweetSimilar
Q1 14:00
3RD & 10
OPP 27
0
11.9%
Brett Hundley pass incomplete to Devin Fuller, broken up by David DeanSimilar
Q1 13:56
4TH & 10
OPP 27
+44
11.9%
Ka'imi Fairbairn 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 2PUNT
10 plays · 33 yds · 3:3912% → 14%
Q1 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+17
12.0%
Kevin Parks run for 17 yds to the Virg 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
12.1%
Kevin Parks run for 1 yd to the Virg 45Similar
Q1 13:06
2ND & 9
OWN 45
0
12.4%
Kevin Parks run for no gain to the Virg 45Similar
Q1 12:23
3RD & 9
OWN 45
+13
12.6%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Kevin Parks for 13 yds to the UCLA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
12.9%
Kevin Parks run for no gain to the UCLA 42Similar
Q1 11:44
2ND & 10
OPP 42
-5
13.1%
VIRGINIA Penalty, False Start (Ryan Doull) to the UCLA 47Similar
Q1 11:22
2ND & 15
OPP 47
+3
13.2%
Kevin Parks run for 3 yds to the UCLA 44Similar
Q1 10:45
3RD & 12
OPP 44
+4
13.4%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Doni Dowling for 4 yds to the UCLA 40Similar
Q1 10:11
4TH & 8
OPP 40
0
13.6%
Alec Vozenilek punt for 40 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 3PUNT
10 plays · 23 yds · 3:1186% → 85%
Q1 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
13.6%
Brett Hundley pass complete to Thomas Duarte for 7 yds to the UCLA 27Similar
Q1 9:52
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+8
13.6%
Brett Hundley pass complete to Devin Lucien for 8 yds to the UCLA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-3
13.8%
Brett Hundley sacked by Henry Coley for a loss of 3 yards to the UCLA 32Similar
Q1 9:00
2ND & 13
OWN 32
+5
14.2%
Brett Hundley run for 5 yds to the UCLA 37Similar
Q1 8:27
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+16
14.3%
Brett Hundley pass complete to Jordan Payton for 16 yds to the Virg 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:07
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-1
14.1%
Brett Hundley pass complete to Devin Lucien for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 48Similar
Q1 7:41
2ND & 11
OPP 48
0
14.3%
Brett Hundley pass incomplete to Devin Fuller, broken up by Anthony HarrisSimilar
Q1 7:35
3RD & 11
OPP 48
-9
14.5%
UCLA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Alex Redmond) to the UCLA 43Similar
Q1 7:10
3RD & 20
OWN 43
0
14.9%
Brett Hundley sacked by Max Valles for 0 yards to the UCLA 43Similar
Q1 6:52
4TH & 20
OWN 43
0
15.3%
Matt Mengel punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Khalek Shepherd at the Virg 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 3:0215% → 17%
Q1 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
15.2%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Canaan Severin for 5 yds to the Virg 28Similar
Q1 6:22
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+4
15.4%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 4 yds to the Virg 32Similar
Q1 5:42
3RD & 1
OWN 32
+4
15.8%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Canaan Severin for 4 yds to the Virg 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
16.1%
Taquan Mizzell run for 3 yds to the Virg 39Similar
Q1 5:05
2ND & 7
OWN 39
0
16.5%
Taquan Mizzell run for no gain to the Virg 39Similar
Q1 4:29
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+1
16.4%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 1 yd to the Virg 40Similar
Q1 3:45
4TH & 6
OWN 40
+32
16.6%
Alec Vozenilek punt for 45 yds , Ishmael Adams returns for 32 yds to the VIRGINIA 28 UCLA Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the UCLA 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:0284% → 83%
Q1 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-2
16.5%
Steven Manfro run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCLA 30Similar
Q1 3:15
2ND & 12
OWN 30
0
17.0%
Brett Hundley pass incomplete to Thomas DuarteSimilar
Q1 3:15
3RD & 12
OWN 30
-5
17.2%
UCLA Penalty, False Start (Alex Redmond) to the UCLA 25Similar
Q1 3:09
3RD & 17
OWN 25
+10
17.3%
Brett Hundley pass complete to Devin Lucien for 10 yds to the UCLA 35Similar
Q1 2:38
4TH & 7
OWN 35
0
17.4%
Matt Mengel punt for 41 yds , Khalek Shepherd returns for no gain to the Virg 24 Khalek Shepherd fumbled, recovered by Virg Khalek ShepherdSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:0018% → 18%
Q1 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-5
17.6%
VIRGINIA Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the Virg 19Similar
Q1 2:04
1ST & 15
OWN 19
+3
17.8%
Taquan Mizzell run for 3 yds to the Virg 22Similar
Q1 1:29
2ND & 12
OWN 22
+6
18.1%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Doni Dowling for 6 yds to the Virg 28Similar
Q1 1:03
3RD & 6
OWN 28
+5
18.2%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Miles Gooch for 5 yds to the Virg 33Similar
Q1 0:28
4TH & 1
OWN 33
+8
18.4%
Alec Vozenilek punt for 41 yds , Ishmael Adams returns for 8 yds to the UCLA 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 1:4182% → 81%
Q1 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
17.9%
Paul Perkins run for 4 yds to the UCLA 38Similar
Q1 0:07
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+18
17.7%
Paul Perkins run for 18 yds to the Virg 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-3
17.5%
Steven Manfro run for a loss of 3 yards to the Virg 47 Steven Manfro fumbled, recovered by UCLA Steven ManfroSimilar
Q2 14:36
2ND & 13
OPP 47
-4
18.0%
Brett Hundley sacked by Max Valles for a loss of 4 yards to the UCLA 49Similar
Q2 14:11
3RD & 17
OWN 49
+5
18.8%
VIRGINIA Penalty, Defensive Offside (David Dean) to the Virg 46Similar
Q2 13:50
3RD & 12
OPP 46
0
18.7%
Brett Hundley pass incomplete to Eldridge MassingtonSimilar
Q2 13:42
4TH & 12
OPP 46
0
19.5%
Matt Mengel punt for 46 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 8INT TD
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q2 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+20
15.6%
Ishmael Adams 20 Yd Interception Return (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:1916% → 15%
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
15.6%
Khalek Shepherd run for 3 yds to the Virg 28Similar
Q2 12:55
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
15.9%
Kevin Parks run for no gain to the Virg 28Similar
Q2 12:23
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
15.6%
Greyson Lambert pass incomplete to Taquan MizzellSimilar
Q2 12:11
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+6
15.4%
Alec Vozenilek punt for 50 yds , Randall Goforth returns for 6 yds to the UCLA 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 10PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:0184% → 83%
Q2 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-4
15.6%
Jordon James run for 6 yds to the UCLA 34 UCLA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Devin Lucien) to the UCLA 24Similar
Q2 12:01
1ST & 14
OWN 24
+2
16.1%
Jordon James run for 2 yds to the UCLA 26Similar
Q2 11:19
2ND & 12
OWN 26
0
16.3%
Brett Hundley pass incomplete to Steven ManfroSimilar
Q2 11:13
3RD & 12
OWN 26
0
16.6%
Brett Hundley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:05
4TH & 12
OWN 26
0
17.0%
Matt Mengel punt for 45 yds , Khalek Shepherd returns for no gain to the Virg 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 11FG
9 plays · 53 yds · 2:2617% → 21%
Q2 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
16.5%
Greyson Lambert pass incomplete to Canaan SeverinSimilar
Q2 10:53
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+4
16.3%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 4 yds to the Virg 33Similar
Q2 10:13
3RD & 6
OWN 33
+27
16.4%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Andre Levrone for 27 yds to the UCLA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:59
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
17.9%
Taquan Mizzell run for 5 yds to the UCLA 35Similar
Q2 9:37
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+12
18.5%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Miles Gooch for 12 yds to the UCLA 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:33
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
18.6%
Taquan Mizzell run for 4 yds to the UCLA 19Similar
Q2 9:12
2ND & 6
OPP 19
+1
18.7%
Taquan Mizzell run for 1 yd to the UCLA 18Similar
Q2 8:39
3RD & 5
OPP 18
0
18.3%
Greyson Lambert pass incomplete to Taquan Mizzell, broken up by Myles JackSimilar
Q2 8:35
4TH & 5
OPP 18
+35
20.9%
Ian Frye 35 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 1:4780% → 79%
Q2 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
19.7%
Brett Hundley run for no gain to the UCLA 19Similar
Q2 7:58
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+1
19.4%
Paul Perkins run for 1 yd to the UCLA 20Similar
Q2 7:28
3RD & 9
OWN 20
-5
20.1%
UCLA Penalty, False Start (Caleb Benenoch) to the UCLA 15Similar
Q2 7:04
3RD & 14
OWN 15
+10
20.4%
Brett Hundley pass complete to Paul Perkins for 10 yds to the UCLA 25Similar
Q2 6:37
4TH & 4
OWN 25
0
20.9%
Matt Mengel punt for 35 yds , Khalek Shepherd returns for no gain to the Virg 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 13FUMBLE RETURN TD
10 plays · 35 yds · 3:3522% → 16%
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
21.9%
Kevin Parks run for 5 yds to the Virg 45Similar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 5
OWN 45
0
22.4%
Greyson Lambert pass incomplete to Zachary SwansonSimilar
Q2 5:55
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+7
21.7%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Canaan Severin for 7 yds to the UCLA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:32
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
23.0%
Kevin Parks run for no gain to the UCLA 48Similar
Q2 4:53
2ND & 10
OPP 48
-2
23.2%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Kevin Parks for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 4:41
3RD & 12
50
+5
21.5%
UCLA Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the UCLA 45Similar
Q2 4:18
3RD & 7
OPP 45
+3
23.2%
Lambert, Greyson pass incomplete to Gooch, Miles, PENALTY UCLA pass interference (Kendricks, Eric) 3 yards to the UCLA42, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN VIRGINIA. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:12
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
23.9%
Taquan Mizzell run for 2 yds to the UCLA 40Similar
Q2 3:39
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+4
24.1%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 4 yds to the UCLA 36Similar
Q2 2:55
3RD & 4
OPP 36
-75
15.8%
Randall Goforth 75 Yd Fumble Return (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 14INT TD
8 plays · 13 yds · 1:2714% → 10%
Q2 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
14.4%
Greyson Lambert run for 4 yds to the Virg 29Similar
Q2 2:29
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
14.6%
Khalek Shepherd run for 5 yds to the Virg 34Similar
Q2 2:13
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
14.7%
Khalek Shepherd run for 2 yds to the Virg 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
14.9%
VIRGINIA Penalty, False Start (Michael Mooney) to the Virg 31Similar
Q2 1:53
1ST & 15
OWN 31
0
14.4%
Greyson Lambert pass incomplete to Khalek ShepherdSimilar
Q2 1:44
2ND & 15
OWN 31
+7
14.4%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Canaan Severin for 7 yds to the Virg 38Similar
Q2 1:20
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+37
9.6%
Eric Kendricks 37 Yd Interception Return (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 15TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 0:2410% → 18%
Q2 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
9.5%
Kevin Parks run for 3 yds to the Virg 28Similar
Q2 1:10
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
9.5%
Kevin Parks run for 2 yds to the Virg 30Similar
Q2 1:04
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+32
10.1%
Matt Johns pass complete to Canaan Severin for 32 yds to the UCLA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
11.4%
Matt Johns run for 9 yds to the UCLA 29Similar
Q2 0:52
2ND & 1
OPP 29
+29
18.3%
Andre Levrone 29 Yd pass from Matt Johns (Ian Frye Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 16END OF HALF
6 plays · 14 yds · 0:4085% → 86%
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+9
14.7%
Brett Hundley pass complete to Jordan Payton for 9 yds to the UCLA 30Similar
Q2 0:22
2ND & 1
OWN 30
0
14.3%
Brett Hundley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:10
3RD & 1
OWN 30
+6
14.2%
Brett Hundley pass complete to Jordan Payton for 6 yds to the UCLA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
14.1%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:02
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-1
14.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCLA 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:3015% → 14%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
15.0%
Kevin Parks run for no gain to the Virg 12Similar
Q3 14:07
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+2
15.0%
Kevin Parks run for 2 yds to the Virg 14Similar
Q3 13:32
3RD & 8
OWN 14
0
14.5%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Khalek ShepherdSimilar
Q3 13:20
4TH & 8
OWN 14
+9
14.3%
Alec Vozenilek punt for 50 yds , Ishmael Adams returns for 9 yds to the UCLA 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 18FUMBLE
6 plays · 14 yds · 1:2686% → 85%
Q3 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-3
14.5%
Jordon James run for a loss of 3 yards to the UCLA 42Similar
Q3 12:53
2ND & 13
OWN 42
+18
14.9%
Brett Hundley pass complete to Jordan Payton for 18 yds to the Virg 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:44
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+7
14.4%
Brett Hundley pass complete to Thomas Duarte for 7 yds to the Virg 33Similar
Q3 12:25
2ND & 3
OPP 33
0
14.3%
Brett Hundley pass incomplete to Devin FullerSimilar
Q3 12:17
3RD & 3
OPP 33
-2
14.6%
Jordon James run for a loss of 2 yards to the Virg 35Similar
Q3 11:49
4TH & 5
OPP 35
-6
15.2%
Brett Hundley sacked by Daquan Romero for a loss of 6 yards to the Virg 41 Brett Hundley fumbled, forced by Daquan Romero, recovered by Virg Mike Moore , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 19TD
10 plays · 59 yds · 4:1116% → 30%
Q3 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
16.3%
Kevin Parks run for 4 yds to the Virg 45Similar
Q3 11:09
2ND & 6
OWN 45
0
16.6%
Kevin Parks run for no gain to the Virg 45Similar
Q3 10:31
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+11
15.1%
Matt Johns pass complete to Doni Dowling for 11 yds to the UCLA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:18
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-1
16.4%
Khalek Shepherd run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCLA 45Similar
Q3 9:42
2ND & 11
OPP 45
+5
16.1%
Matt Johns run for 5 yds to the UCLA 40Similar
Q3 9:11
3RD & 6
OPP 40
+4
16.2%
Matt Johns pass complete to Doni Dowling for 4 yds to the UCLA 36Similar
Q3 8:38
4TH & 2
OPP 36
+13
15.4%
Kevin Parks run for 13 yds to the UCLA 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:05
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
17.6%
Matt Johns run for no gain to the UCLA 23Similar
Q3 7:38
2ND & 10
OPP 23
0
17.7%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Zachary SwansonSimilar
Q3 7:33
3RD & 10
OPP 23
+23
29.7%
Darius Jennings 23 Yd pass from Matt Johns (Ian Frye Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 20PUNT
9 plays · 41 yds · 2:0375% → 74%
Q3 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+17
25.5%
Brett Hundley pass complete to Nate Iese for 17 yds to the UCLA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
24.9%
Brett Hundley pass complete to Jordan Payton for 5 yds to the UCLA 36Similar
Q3 7:06
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+3
24.1%
Paul Perkins run for 3 yds to the UCLA 39Similar
Q3 6:34
3RD & 2
OWN 39
+9
24.0%
Brett Hundley run for 9 yds to the UCLA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
23.7%
Paul Perkins run for 5 yds to the Virg 47Similar
Q3 5:44
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+2
23.5%
Brett Hundley pass complete to Nate Iese for 2 yds to the Virg 45Similar
Q3 5:30
3RD & 3
OPP 45
0
24.1%
Brett Hundley pass incomplete to Devin LucienSimilar
Q3 5:22
4TH & 3
OPP 45
0
25.7%
Matt Mengel punt for 45 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:1728% → 24%
Q3 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
27.8%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Darius JenningsSimilar
Q3 5:06
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
27.5%
Matt Johns pass complete to Doni Dowling for no gain to the Virg 20Similar
Q3 4:34
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+3
25.5%
Kevin Parks run for 3 yds to the Virg 23Similar
Q3 3:57
4TH & 7
OWN 23
0
24.2%
Alec Vozenilek punt for 43 yds, downed at the UCLA 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 22TD
10 plays · 66 yds · 2:4976% → 87%
Q3 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
24.2%
Paul Perkins run for 4 yds to the UCLA 38Similar
Q3 3:27
2ND & 6
OWN 38
-2
22.7%
Paul Perkins run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCLA 36Similar
Q3 2:52
3RD & 8
OWN 36
+15
25.1%
Brett Hundley pass complete to Eldridge Massington for 15 yds to the Virg 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+16
21.8%
Paul Perkins run for 16 yds to the Virg 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:28
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-5
20.9%
UCLA Penalty, False Start (Caleb Benenoch) to the Virg 38Similar
Q3 2:07
1ST & 15
OPP 38
+5
22.5%
Brett Hundley run for 5 yds to the Virg 33Similar
Q3 1:46
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+25
21.2%
Brett Hundley pass complete to Thomas Duarte for 25 yds to the Virg 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
20.9%
Brett Hundley pass incomplete to Eldridge MassingtonSimilar
Q3 1:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
20.9%
Paul Perkins run for 2 yds to the Virg 6Similar
Q3 1:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
12.7%
Brett Hundley 6 Yd Run (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:4114% → 13%
Q3 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
14.3%
Matt Johns pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 1 yd to the Virg 26Similar
Q3 0:24
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+7
14.2%
Taquan Mizzell run for 7 yds to the Virg 33Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
14.1%
Matt Johns pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 1 yd to the Virg 34Similar
Q4 14:14
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
13.0%
Alec Vozenilek punt for 53 yds, downed at the UCLA 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 24FUMBLE
12 plays · 52 yds · 3:2286% → 90%
Q4 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+12
13.7%
Brett Hundley run for 12 yds to the UCLA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
13.5%
Paul Perkins run for 2 yds to the UCLA 27Similar
Q4 13:24
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
12.6%
Paul Perkins run for 7 yds to the UCLA 34Similar
Q4 12:48
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
12.8%
Brett Hundley run for 1 yd to the UCLA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+17
12.6%
Brett Hundley run for 17 yds to the Virg 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+12
11.4%
Paul Perkins run for 12 yds to the Virg 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:12
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
10.9%
Brett Hundley run for 5 yds to the Virg 31Similar
Q4 11:49
2ND & 5
OPP 31
-4
10.0%
Brett Hundley pass complete to Steven Manfro for a loss of 4 yards to the Virg 35Similar
Q4 11:10
3RD & 9
OPP 35
+8
9.4%
Brett Hundley pass complete to Jordan Payton for 8 yds to the Virg 27Similar
Q4 10:45
4TH & 1
OPP 27
-8
9.9%
Brett Hundley sacked by Henry Coley for a loss of 8 yards to the Virg 35 Brett Hundley fumbled, forced by Henry Coley, recovered by Virg Daquan Romero , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 25FG
13 plays · 55 yds · 3:4811% → 16%
Q4 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
10.8%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Kyle DockinsSimilar
Q4 10:32
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+15
10.5%
Matt Johns pass complete to Zachary Swanson for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:24
1ST & 10
50
+4
12.0%
Taquan Mizzell run for 4 yds to the UCLA 46Similar
Q4 10:01
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+3
12.4%
Matt Johns pass complete to Miles Gooch for 3 yds to the UCLA 43Similar
Q4 9:13
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+10
12.8%
Johns, Matt pass incomplete to Severin, Canaan, PENALTY UCLA holding (Goforth, Randall) 10 yards to the UCLA33, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN VIRGINIA. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:59
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
13.9%
Matt Johns pass complete to Darius Jennings for 2 yds to the UCLA 31Similar
Q4 8:34
2ND & 8
OPP 31
0
13.9%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Canaan Severin, broken up by Myles JackSimilar
Q4 8:30
3RD & 8
OPP 31
0
12.9%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Andre LevroneSimilar
Q4 8:25
4TH & 8
OPP 31
+14
11.1%
Matt Johns pass complete to Darius Jennings for 14 yds to the UCLA 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:08
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
14.2%
Khalek Shepherd run for no gain to the UCLA 17Similar
Q4 7:25
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+7
13.6%
Khalek Shepherd run for 7 yds to the UCLA 10Similar
Q4 6:50
3RD & 3
OPP 10
0
12.1%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Canaan SeverinSimilar
Q4 6:47
4TH & 3
OPP 10
+27
15.6%
Ian Frye 27 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 26PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:4790% → 89%
Q4 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-3
10.0%
Paul Perkins run for a loss of 3 yards to the UCLA 9 Paul Perkins fumbled, recovered by UCLA Paul PerkinsSimilar
Q4 6:05
2ND & 13
OWN 9
0
9.5%
Brett Hundley pass incomplete to Thomas DuarteSimilar
Q4 6:00
3RD & 13
OWN 9
0
10.2%
Brett Hundley pass incomplete, broken up by Maurice CanadySimilar
Q4 5:55
4TH & 13
OWN 9
0
10.6%
Matt Mengel punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Khalek Shepherd at the UCLA 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 27DOWNS
7 plays · 23 yds · 2:2916% → 13%
Q4 5:49
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
15.8%
Kevin Parks run for 2 yds to the UCLA 38Similar
Q4 5:26
2ND & 8
OPP 38
0
15.4%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Miles GoochSimilar
Q4 5:20
3RD & 8
OPP 38
+19
14.6%
Matt Johns pass complete to Andre Levrone for 19 yds to the UCLA 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:03
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
17.6%
Khalek Shepherd run for 1 yd to the UCLA 18Similar
Q4 4:28
2ND & 9
OPP 18
-1
17.7%
Matt Johns run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCLA 19Similar
Q4 3:53
3RD & 10
OPP 19
+2
15.8%
Taquan Mizzell run for 2 yds to the UCLA 17Similar
Q4 3:20
4TH & 8
OPP 17
0
13.1%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Doni Dowling, broken up by Myles JackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 28END OF GAME
10 plays · 37 yds · 2:1093% → 96%
Q4 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
6.6%
Brett Hundley pass complete to Jordan Payton for 1 yd to the UCLA 18Similar
Q4 3:07
2ND & 9
OWN 18
0
6.1%
Brett Hundley run for no gain to the UCLA 18Similar
Q4 2:55
3RD & 9
OWN 18
+35
6.7%
Brett Hundley pass complete to Jordan Payton for 35 yds to the Virg 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
4.6%
Paul Perkins run for 3 yds to the Virg 44Similar
Q4 1:53
2ND & 7
OPP 44
-5
3.2%
UCLA Penalty, False Start (Caleb Benenoch) to the Virg 49Similar
Q4 1:53
2ND & 12
OPP 49
-5
3.3%
UCLA Penalty, False Start (Scott Quessenberry) to the UCLA 46Similar
Q4 1:46
2ND & 17
OWN 46
+2
3.7%
Paul Perkins run for 2 yds to the UCLA 48Similar
Q4 1:03
3RD & 15
OWN 48
+6
3.6%
Paul Perkins run for 6 yds to the Virg 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:33
Darius Jennings 23 Yd pass from Matt Johns (Ian Frye Kick)
+12
TD · Q2 2:55
Randall Goforth 75 Yd Fumble Return (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)
-8.3
TD · Q3 1:02
Brett Hundley 6 Yd Run (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)
-8.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com