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PITT

Pittsburgh 19 at Virginia 24

UVA
2014 · Week 6 · Oct 4, 2014 · Scott Stadium
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Win probability · UVA
modelUVA aheadPITT aheadconfidence bandkey playUVA scorePITT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:13 · Ryan Winslow punt for 46 yds , Khalek Shepherd returns for 1 yd to the Virg 15
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+26.0+13.00−13.0−26.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 85Home team on offense+16.6Pregame prior+7.0Score differential+11.9Garbage-time factor+3.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.1Time remaining+1.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:51: Kevin Parks run for 48 yds for a TD, (Ian Frye KICK) — UVA win probability +7.8 pts (now 70%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:58: Matt Johns pass complete to Khalek Shepherd for 3 yds for a TD, (Ian Frye KICK) — UVA win probability +4.8 pts (now 78%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 2:40: Max Valles 35 Yd Interception Return (Ian Frye Kick) — UVA win probability +12.0 pts (now 89%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 11:02: Chad Voytik pass complete to Manasseh Garner for 17 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK) — PITT win probability +11.3 pts (now 19%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:27: J.P. Holtz 6 Yd pass from Chad Voytik (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — PITT win probability +15.9 pts (now 20%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UVA made the numbers' call on 3 of 6PITT made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 12:29PITT 4th & 2 at PITT 39, tied
    Close callPunted · 38.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.0%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:10UVA 4th & 8 at PITT 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.1%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.2%
    83% to make
    Punt
    61.4%−0.9
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:51PITT 4th & 17 at PITT 43, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.4%−0.7
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:44UVA 4th & 7 at PITT 41, up 3
    Close callPunted · 62.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.0%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    62.6%−0.4
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    62.8%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:12PITT 4th & 11 at UVA 18, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.5%−0.7
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.3%
    79% to make
    Punt
    34.3%−3.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:32UVA 4th & 1 at UVA 23, tied
    Close callPunted · 60.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.2%−0.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:56PITT 4th & 23 at PITT 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.0%−1.8
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:31PITT 4th & 2 at PITT 43, down 7
    Close callPunted · 31.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.7%−0.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:13PITT 4th & 5 at PITT 40, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.6%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.7%
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:50UVA 4th & 7 at UVA 22, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.3%−0.6
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.9%
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:52PITT 4th & 5 at UVA 5, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 13.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.2%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.3%
    92% to make
    Punt
    6.3%−7.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:36UVA 4th & 25 at UVA 41, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.3%−3.5
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.8%
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:13PITT 4th & 23 at UVA 44, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.4%−1.5
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    12.1%−0.8
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    12.9%
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:04UVA 4th & 4 at midfield, up 11
    Close callPunted · 91.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.7%−0.6
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:13PITT 4th & 20 at PITT 34, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.8%−0.7
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UVA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3PITT made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 10:51UVA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 3:58UVA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:40UVA Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 11:02PITT Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 1:27PITT Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    8.2%−0.8
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    9.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PITTDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 1:5636% → 37%
Q1 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+9
63.6%
James Conner run for 9 yds to the Pitt 28Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 1
OWN 28
+3
63.5%
James Conner run for 3 yds to the Pitt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
63.5%
James Conner run for 8 yds to the Pitt 39Similar
Q1 13:12
2ND & 2
OWN 39
0
63.4%
Chad Voytik pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:50
3RD & 2
OWN 39
0
63.3%
James Conner run for no gain to the Pitt 39Similar
Q1 12:29
4TH & 2
OWN 39
0
63.5%
Ryan Winslow punt for 33 yds , Khalek Shepherd returns for no gain to the Virg 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 2FG
9 plays · 57 yds · 3:0564% → 64%
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+12
63.5%
Kevin Parks run for 12 yds to the Virg 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
63.7%
Kevin Parks run for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 39Similar
Q1 11:20
2ND & 11
OWN 39
+9
63.5%
Kevin Parks run for 9 yds to the Virg 48Similar
Q1 10:45
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+5
63.7%
Kevin Parks run for 5 yds to the Pitt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:08
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+30
63.9%
Matt Johns pass complete to Canaan Severin for 30 yds to the Pitt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
64.1%
Kevin Parks run for 2 yds to the Pitt 15Similar
Q1 9:19
2ND & 8
OPP 15
0
64.2%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Kyle DockinsSimilar
Q1 9:13
3RD & 8
OPP 15
0
64.0%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Taquan Mizzell, broken up by Ray VinopalSimilar
Q1 9:10
4TH & 8
OPP 15
+32
64.2%
Ian Frye 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 3PUNT
12 plays · 32 yds · 2:0936% → 36%
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
64.0%
Chad Voytik pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:45
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+14
64.1%
James Conner run for 14 yds to the Pitt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
64.1%
James Conner run for 10 yds to the Pitt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
63.9%
Chris James run for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:51
1ST & 10
50
-5
63.2%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, False Start (Matt Rotheram) to the Pitt 45Similar
Q1 7:30
1ST & 15
OWN 45
+3
63.6%
James Conner run for 3 yds to the Pitt 48Similar
Q1 7:08
2ND & 12
OWN 48
-5
63.5%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the Pitt 43Similar
Q1 7:05
2ND & 17
OWN 43
0
63.8%
Chad Voytik pass incomplete to Tyler BoydSimilar
Q1 6:58
3RD & 17
OWN 43
0
64.0%
Chad Voytik pass incomplete to Manasseh Garner, broken up by Brandon PhelpsSimilar
Q1 6:51
4TH & 17
OWN 43
0
64.4%
Ryan Winslow punt for 27 yds , Khalek Shepherd returns for no gain to the Virg 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 29 yds · 3:0264% → 64%
Q1 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
63.8%
Matt Johns pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:40
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+15
63.6%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Lafayette Pitts) to the Virg 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
64.5%
Khalek Shepherd run for 11 yds to the Pitt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-5
64.7%
VIRGINIA Penalty, False Start (Zachary Swanson) to the Pitt 49Similar
Q1 5:10
1ST & 15
OPP 49
-2
64.3%
Kevin Parks run for a loss of 2 yards to the Virg 49Similar
Q1 4:44
2ND & 17
OWN 49
+6
64.0%
Kevin Parks run for 6 yds to the Pitt 45Similar
Q1 4:05
3RD & 11
OPP 45
+4
64.0%
Matt Johns pass complete to Doni Dowling for 4 yds to the Pitt 41Similar
Q1 3:44
4TH & 7
OPP 41
0
63.9%
Alec Vozenilek punt for 41 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 5FG
11 plays · 62 yds · 3:2636% → 39%
Q1 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
64.0%
Chad Voytik pass incomplete to Jester Weah, broken up by Quin BlandingSimilar
Q1 3:33
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
64.2%
Chad Voytik pass incomplete to Tyler Boyd, broken up by Maurice CanadySimilar
Q1 3:15
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+34
64.6%
Chad Voytik pass complete to Tyler Boyd for 34 yds to the Virg 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
62.6%
James Conner run for 3 yds to the Virg 43Similar
Q1 2:10
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+3
62.3%
Chad Voytik run for 3 yds to the Virg 40Similar
Q1 1:40
3RD & 4
OPP 40
+23
62.3%
Chad Voytik pass complete to Kevin Weatherspoon for 23 yds to the Virg 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
61.4%
James Conner run for 4 yds to the Virg 13Similar
Q1 0:42
2ND & 6
OPP 13
-5
61.3%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, False Start (T.J. Clemmings) to the Virg 18Similar
Q1 0:21
2ND & 11
OPP 18
0
61.5%
Chad Voytik pass incomplete to Tyler BoydSimilar
Q1 0:16
3RD & 11
OPP 18
0
62.2%
Chad Voytik pass incomplete to Tyler BoydSimilar
Q1 0:12
4TH & 11
OPP 18
+36
61.1%
Chris Blewitt 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:2862% → 61%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+8
62.3%
Kevin Parks run for 8 yds to the Virg 22Similar
Q2 14:35
2ND & 2
OWN 22
+1
62.5%
Khalek Shepherd run for 1 yd to the Virg 23Similar
Q2 13:55
3RD & 1
OWN 23
0
61.8%
Kevin Parks run for no gain to the Virg 23Similar
Q2 13:32
4TH & 1
OWN 23
0
61.1%
Alec Vozenilek punt for 39 yds , Tyler Boyd returns for no gain to the Pitt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · -13 yds · 1:0940% → 38%
Q2 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-8
60.1%
Chad Voytik sacked by Mike Moore for a loss of 8 yards to the Pitt 30Similar
Q2 12:30
2ND & 18
OWN 30
-5
61.2%
Chad Voytik pass complete to Rachid Ibrahim for a loss of 5 yards to the Pitt 25Similar
Q2 12:03
3RD & 23
OWN 25
0
61.8%
Chad Voytik pass incomplete to Manasseh GarnerSimilar
Q2 11:56
4TH & 23
OWN 25
0
62.3%
Ryan Winslow punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Khalek Shepherd at the Virg 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 8TD
3 plays · 68 yds · 0:3462% → 70%
Q2 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
62.4%
Matt Johns pass complete to Kevin Parks for 1 yd to the Virg 33Similar
Q2 11:00
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+19
62.2%
Matt Johns pass complete to Miles Gooch for 19 yds to the Pitt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:51
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+48
70.0%
Kevin Parks run for 48 yds for a TD, (Ian Frye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:4933% → 32%
Q2 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-4
67.3%
James Conner run for a loss of 4 yards to the Pitt 31Similar
Q2 10:00
2ND & 14
OWN 31
-5
68.2%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, False Start (T.J. Clemmings) to the Pitt 26Similar
Q2 9:35
2ND & 19
OWN 26
+11
68.6%
Chad Voytik pass complete to Kevin Weatherspoon for 11 yds to the Pitt 37Similar
Q2 9:00
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+6
68.3%
Chad Voytik pass complete to J.P. Holtz for 6 yds to the Pitt 43Similar
Q2 8:31
4TH & 2
OWN 43
0
68.3%
Ryan Winslow punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Khalek Shepherd at the Virg 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 10TD
9 plays · 78 yds · 4:0770% → 78%
Q2 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
69.7%
Taquan Mizzell run for 1 yd to the Virg 23Similar
Q2 7:33
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+8
69.6%
Matt Johns pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 8 yds to the Virg 31Similar
Q2 7:20
3RD & 1
OWN 31
+24
70.0%
Kevin Parks run for 9 yds to the Pitt 40 for a 1ST down PITTSBURGH Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Terrish Webb) to the Pitt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+10
72.1%
Matt Johns run for 10 yds to the Pitt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
72.4%
Matt Johns run for 3 yds to the Pitt 32Similar
Q2 5:55
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+28
72.5%
Miles Gooch pass complete to Zachary Swanson for 28 yds to the Pitt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
72.8%
Kevin Parks run for no gain to the Pitt 4Similar
Q2 4:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
73.0%
Kevin Parks run for 1 yd to the Pitt 3Similar
Q2 3:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
77.8%
Matt Johns pass complete to Khalek Shepherd for 3 yds for a TD, (Ian Frye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 11INT TD
4 plays · 14 yds · 1:0523% → 11%
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+12
76.9%
Chad Voytik pass complete to Tyler Boyd for 12 yds to the Pitt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
76.6%
James Conner run for 2 yds to the Pitt 41Similar
Q2 2:40
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+35
88.6%
Max Valles 35 Yd Interception Return (Ian Frye Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 5 yds · 0:5711% → 10%
Q2 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-3
88.9%
James Conner run for a loss of 3 yards to the Pitt 32Similar
Q2 1:45
2ND & 13
OWN 32
+8
89.7%
Chad Voytik pass complete to Manasseh Garner for 8 yds to the Pitt 40Similar
Q2 1:22
3RD & 5
OWN 40
0
90.0%
Chad Voytik run for no gain to the Pitt 40Similar
Q2 1:13
4TH & 5
OWN 40
+1
89.7%
Ryan Winslow punt for 46 yds , Khalek Shepherd returns for 1 yd to the Virg 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 13END OF HALF
3 plays · 18 yds · 1:0093% → 93%
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
93.0%
Kevin Parks run for 5 yds to the Virg 20Similar
Q2 0:36
2ND & 5
OWN 20
+10
93.0%
Kevin Parks run for 10 yds to the Virg 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
93.1%
Kevin Parks run for 3 yds to the Virg 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:5593% → 93%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-10
92.7%
VIRGINIA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Virg 9Similar
Q3 14:20
1ST & 20
OWN 9
+4
92.7%
Kevin Parks run for 4 yds to the Virg 13Similar
Q3 13:50
2ND & 16
OWN 13
+4
93.0%
Taquan Mizzell run for 4 yds to the Virg 17Similar
Q3 13:15
3RD & 12
OWN 17
+5
93.2%
Matt Johns pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 5 yds to the Virg 22Similar
Q3 12:50
4TH & 7
OWN 22
0
93.0%
Alec Vozenilek punt for 9 yds, downed at the Virg 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 15TD
6 plays · 31 yds · 0:589% → 19%
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
91.5%
James Conner run for 5 yds to the Virg 26Similar
Q3 11:45
2ND & 5
OPP 26
+6
91.4%
Chad Voytik run for 6 yds to the Virg 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+8
91.8%
James Conner run for 8 yds to the Virg 12Similar
Q3 11:15
2ND & 2
OPP 12
0
92.0%
Chad Voytik pass incomplete to Tyler BoydSimilar
Q3 11:07
3RD & 2
OPP 12
-5
92.7%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Virg 17Similar
Q3 11:02
3RD & 7
OPP 17
+17
81.3%
Chad Voytik pass complete to Manasseh Garner for 17 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 16INT
6 plays · 23 yds · 1:5785% → 87%
Q3 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
84.8%
Kevin Parks run for 4 yds to the Virg 31Similar
Q3 10:15
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+12
85.0%
Kevin Parks run for 12 yds to the Virg 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
86.4%
Khalek Shepherd run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 9:00
2ND & 3
50
0
86.8%
Khalek Shepherd run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 8:38
3RD & 3
50
0
86.5%
Matt Johns pass intercepted Pat Amara return for no gain to the Pitt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 17FG
11 plays · 62 yds · 4:2316% → 18%
Q3 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
84.1%
Tyler Boyd run for 2 yds to the Pitt 35Similar
Q3 7:55
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+21
84.3%
Chad Voytik pass complete to Scott Orndoff for 6 yds to the Virg 41 for a 1ST down VIRGINIA Penalty, Personal Foul (Mike Moore) to the Virg 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:28
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
83.1%
Tyler Boyd run for 6 yds to the Virg 38Similar
Q3 6:55
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+23
82.9%
Isaac Bennett run for 23 yds to the Virg 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+9
82.2%
Chad Voytik run for 9 yds to the Virg 6Similar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 1
OPP 6
+2
82.4%
James Conner run for 2 yds to the Virg 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
82.6%
James Conner run for 2 yds to the Virg 2Similar
Q3 4:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
83.5%
James Conner run for 1 yd to the Virg 1Similar
Q3 4:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-4
85.5%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, False Start (Alex Officer) to the Virg 5Similar
Q3 3:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
85.6%
Chad Voytik pass incomplete to Rachid IbrahimSimilar
Q3 3:52
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+24
82.4%
Chris Blewitt 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 24 yds · 0:5985% → 84%
Q3 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+24
84.5%
Darius Jennings run for 24 yds to the Virg 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+15
85.6%
Matt Johns pass complete to Miles Gooch for 15 yds to the Pitt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
85.7%
Matt Johns pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:49
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
86.1%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Canaan SeverinSimilar
Q3 2:49
3RD & 10
OWN 44
-15
84.9%
Matt Johns sacked by TEAM for a loss of 15 yards to the VIRGINIA 41 VIRGINIA Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Matt Johns) to the Virg 41Similar
Q3 2:36
4TH & 25
OWN 41
0
83.9%
Alec Vozenilek punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Tyler Boyd at the Pitt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 19PUNT
11 plays · 40 yds · 4:4715% → 13%
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+3
84.7%
James Conner run for 3 yds to the Pitt 19Similar
Q3 1:30
2ND & 7
OWN 19
+17
85.0%
Chad Voytik pass complete to Tyler Boyd for 17 yds to the Pitt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
83.6%
Chad Voytik pass complete to Adonis Jennings for 6 yds to the Pitt 42Similar
Q3 0:35
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+10
82.7%
James Conner run for 10 yds to the Virg 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
82.1%
James Conner run for no gain to the Virg 48Similar
Q4 14:30
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
82.6%
Chad Voytik run for no gain to the Virg 48Similar
Q4 14:00
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+17
84.0%
Chad Voytik pass complete to Isaac Bennett for 17 yds to the Virg 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-11
81.6%
Chad Voytik sacked by Anthony Harris for a loss of 11 yards to the Virg 42Similar
Q4 12:45
2ND & 21
OPP 42
-2
84.4%
Chad Voytik sacked by Mike Moore and Max Valles for a loss of 2 yards to the Virg 44Similar
Q4 12:21
3RD & 23
OPP 44
0
86.4%
Chad Voytik pass incomplete to Isaac BennettSimilar
Q4 12:13
4TH & 23
OPP 44
0
87.2%
Ryan Winslow punt for 44 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 20PUNT
9 plays · 30 yds · 3:5188% → 90%
Q4 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
87.7%
Kevin Parks run for 9 yds to the Virg 29Similar
Q4 11:35
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+3
87.9%
Kevin Parks run for 3 yds to the Virg 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
88.2%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Miles Gooch, broken up by Jevonte PittsSimilar
Q4 10:55
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+4
89.7%
Taquan Mizzell run for 4 yds to the Virg 36Similar
Q4 10:20
3RD & 6
OWN 36
+8
89.7%
Matt Johns run for 8 yds to the Virg 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
91.2%
Kevin Parks run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 9:10
2ND & 4
50
+2
91.4%
Kevin Parks run for 2 yds to the Pitt 48Similar
Q4 8:30
3RD & 2
OPP 48
-2
91.1%
Kevin Parks run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 8:04
4TH & 4
50
0
90.3%
Alec Vozenilek punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Tyler Boyd at the Pitt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 2:429% → 7%
Q4 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+10
91.0%
VIRGINIA Penalty, Defensive Holding (Brandon Phelps) to the Pitt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
91.0%
James Conner run for 3 yds to the Pitt 27Similar
Q4 7:09
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+17
91.0%
Chad Voytik pass complete to J.P. Holtz for 17 yds to the Pitt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
90.1%
Chris James run for 3 yds to the Pitt 47Similar
Q4 5:55
2ND & 7
OWN 47
-13
90.6%
Chad Voytik sacked by Henry Coley for a loss of 13 yards to the Pitt 34Similar
Q4 5:25
3RD & 20
OWN 34
0
93.2%
Chad Voytik pass incomplete to Ronald Jones, broken up by DreQuan HoskeySimilar
Q4 5:13
4TH & 20
OWN 34
0
93.4%
Ryan Winslow punt for 50 yds, downed at the Virg 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 22PUNT
10 plays · 9 yds · 2:5493% → 96%
Q4 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
93.0%
Kevin Parks run for 4 yds to the Virg 20Similar
Q4 4:20
2ND & 6
OWN 20
+3
93.1%
Kevin Parks run for 3 yds to the Virg 23Similar
Q4 3:33
3RD & 3
OWN 23
+8
95.1%
Matt Johns pass complete to Miles Gooch for 8 yds to the Virg 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
96.0%
Kevin Parks run for no gain to the Virg 31Similar
Q4 2:24
2ND & 10
OWN 31
-11
96.1%
Kevin Parks run for 4 yds to the Virg 35 VIRGINIA Penalty, Personal Foul (Eric Smith) to the Virg 20Similar
Q4 2:18
2ND & 21
OWN 20
+5
96.2%
Kevin Parks run for 5 yds to the Virg 25Similar
Q4 2:04
3RD & 16
OWN 25
+45
96.3%
Alec Vozenilek punt for 46 yds , Tyler Boyd returns for 45 yds to the Virg 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 23TD
3 plays · 26 yds · 0:234% → 20%
Q4 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+11
95.9%
Chad Voytik pass complete to J.P. Holtz for 11 yds to the Virg 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+9
95.9%
Chad Voytik pass complete to Isaac Bennett for 9 yds to the Virg 6Similar
Q4 1:27
2ND & 1
OPP 6
+6
80.0%
J.P. Holtz 6 Yd pass from Chad Voytik (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 24END OF GAME
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:3096% → 94%
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-1
95.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 38Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 11
OPP 38
-1
94.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:27
J.P. Holtz 6 Yd pass from Chad Voytik (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
-15.9
TD · Q2 2:40
Max Valles 35 Yd Interception Return (Ian Frye Kick)
+12
TD · Q3 11:02
Chad Voytik pass complete to Manasseh Garner for 17 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK)
-11.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com