2014 · Week 5 · Sep 27, 2014 · Acrisure Stadium
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Win probability · PITT
modelPITT aheadAKR aheadconfidence bandkey playPITT scoreAKR score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 3:17 · Ryan Winslow punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Imani Davis at the Akron 30
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 3:40: Kyle Pohl pass complete to Mykel Traylor-Bennett for 52 yds for a TD, (Robert Stein KICK) — AKR win probability +10.5 pts (now 26%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
- TD · Q3 12:13: Cody Grice run for 1 yd for a TD, (Robert Stein KICK) — AKR win probability +14.0 pts (now 44%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
- TD · Q4 12:20: Cody Grice run for 2 yds for a TD, (Robert Stein KICK) — AKR win probability +19.4 pts (now 78%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 9:30: Conor Hundley run for 2 yds to the Akron 11 — AKR win probability +13.7 pts (now 83%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 6:05: Timeout AKRON, clock 06:05 — AKR win probability +7.7 pts (now 92%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
PITT made the numbers' call on 6 of 10AKR made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
- Q1 15:00PITT 4th & 2 at AKR 48, tiedClose callPunted · 87.4% before the snapGo for it87.4%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call87.4%−0.1average punt
- Q1 13:28AKR 4th & 4 at AKR 9, tiedClose callPunted · 13.0% before the snapGo for it13.0%46% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call13.0%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 12:04PITT 4th & 7 at AKR 37, tiedClose callPunted · 86.6% before the snapGo for it86.6%37% to convertField goal86.6%−<0.140% to makePuntTheir call86.6%−0.1average punt
- Q1 7:32AKR 4th & 4 at AKR 37, tiedClose callPunted · 14.9% before the snapGo for it14.9%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call14.9%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 4:20PITT 4th & 20 at PITT 43, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 83.7% before the snapGo for it83.3%−0.510% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call83.8%average punt
- Q1 1:18AKR 4th & 7 at AKR 31, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 17.1% before the snapGo for it17.0%−0.336% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call17.3%average punt
- Q2 15:00PITT 4th & 4 at PITT 21, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 81.9% before the snapGo for it81.8%−0.247% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call82.0%average punt
- Q2 14:09AKR 4th & 5 at PITT 45, tiedClose callPunted · 18.7% before the snapGo for it18.8%41% to convertField goal18.3%−0.525% to makePuntTheir call18.7%−0.1average punt
- Q2 12:35PITT 4th & 13 at PITT 22, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 80.7% before the snapGo for it80.3%−0.819% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call81.1%average punt
- Q2 10:24AKR 4th & 10 at AKR 35, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 19.3% before the snapGo for it19.0%−0.529% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call19.5%average punt
- Q2 3:40PITT 4th & 14 at PITT 31, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 76.5% before the snapGo for it75.1%−1.918% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call77.0%average punt
- Q3 3:26AKR 4th & 10 at AKR 49, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.4% before the snapGo for it44.9%−1.729% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call46.6%average punt
- Q3 3:17PITT 4th & 1 at PITT 29, down 4Numbers favored go for it by 3.6 ptsPunted · 54.0% before the snapGo for it56.7%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call53.1%−3.6average punt
- Q4 5:52AKR 4th & 10 at AKR 36, up 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.0% before the snapGo for it87.0%−1.329% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call88.4%average punt
- Q4 4:37PITT 4th & 11 at PITT 3, down 11Close callWent for it · 9.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call9.2%−0.922% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt10.0%average punt
- Q4 4:37PITT 4th & 1 at AKR 40, down 11Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call13.3%70% to convertField goal10.2%−3.034% to makePunt10.6%−2.7average punt
- Q4 4:37PITT 4th & 5 at AKR 32, down 11Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call13.5%42% to convertField goal11.6%−1.951% to makePunt11.1%−2.4average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PITT made the numbers' call on 1 of 1AKR made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q2 4:28PITT Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call83.4%97% to makeGo for two83.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:40AKR Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call21.0%97% to makeGo for two20.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 12:13AKR Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call38.6%97% to makeGo for two38.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 12:20AKR Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call74.0%97% to makeGo for two73.7%−0.445% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartPITTDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 2PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q1 13:28
4TH & 4
OWN 9
-6
87.7%
Zach Paul punt for 56 yds , Tyler Boyd returns for a loss of 6 yards to the Pitt 3 PITTSBURGH Penalty, illegal block (Bam Bradley) to the Pitt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 3PUNT10 plays · 44 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q1 12:04
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+24
87.3%
Chad Voytik pass complete to Jaymar Parrish for 9 yds to the Pitt 28 for a 1ST down AKRON Penalty, personal foul (N/A) to the Pitt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:04
2ND & 3
50
-10
87.5%
James Conner rush for no gain to the 50 yardline (BROWN, Jatavis;MIZELL, C.J.), PENALTY UP holding (T.J. Clemmings) 10 yards to the UP40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:04
3RD & 6
OWN 47
+13
87.4%
Chad Voytik pass complete to Rachid Ibrahim for 13 yds to the Akron 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 4PUNT6 plays · 17 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q1 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
85.7%
Kyle Pohl pass complete to Zach D'Orazio for 11 yds to the Akron 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:32
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+5
85.7%
Kyle Pohl pass complete to Zach D'Orazio for 5 yds to the Akron 37Similar
Q1 7:32
4TH & 4
OWN 37
0
85.8%
Zach Paul punt for 38 yds , TEAM returns for no gain to the Pitt 22 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Akron Bryce CheekSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 5INT4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0016% → 15%
Q1 5:50
3RD & 8
OPP 20
0
84.7%
Kyle Pohl pass intercepted, touchback. Ray Vinopal return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 6PUNT7 plays · 23 yds · 0:0085% → 84%
Q1 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+12
85.1%
Chad Voytik pass complete to Tyler Boyd for 12 yds to the Akron 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:20
3RD & 14
OWN 49
-6
84.6%
Chad Voytik sacked by Se'Von Pittman for a loss of 6 yards to the Pitt 43Similar
Q1 4:20
4TH & 20
OWN 43
+2
84.4%
Ryan Winslow punt for 42 yds , Imani Davis returns for 2 yds to the Akron 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 7PUNT5 plays · 14 yds · 0:0017% → 16%
PITTDrive 8PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 0:1583% → 83%
Q2 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 21
0
82.6%
Ryan Winslow punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Imani Davis at the Akron 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 9PUNT6 plays · 25 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q2 14:09
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+20
82.3%
Conor Hundley run for 20 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:09
1ST & 10
50
+9
81.3%
Tommy Woodson pass complete to Mykel Traylor-Bennett for 9 yds to the Pitt 41Similar
Q2 14:09
2ND & 1
OPP 41
-4
81.1%
Tommy Woodson sacked by Rori Blair for a loss of 4 yards to the Pitt 45Similar
Q2 14:09
3RD & 5
OPP 45
0
81.4%
Tommy Woodson pass incomplete to Tyler Williams, broken up by Ray VinopalSimilar
Q2 14:09
4TH & 5
OPP 45
0
82.0%
Zach Paul punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Tyler Boyd at the Pitt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 10PUNT7 plays · 10 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
AKRDrive 11PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0020% → 19%
Q2 10:24
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
81.0%
Kyle Pohl pass incomplete to N/A AKRON Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 12TD15 plays · 80 yds · 5:3481% → 86%
Q2 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
81.3%
Chad Voytik pass complete to Adonis Jennings for 11 yds to the Pitt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:36
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-5
82.1%
James Conner rush for 4 yards to the AKRON41 (BROWN, Jatavis), PENALTY UP illegal formation 5 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:36
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+19
82.4%
Chad Voytik pass complete to Tyler Boyd for 19 yds to the Akron 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:28
3RD & 7
OPP 8
+8
85.6%
Chad Voytik pass complete to Manasseh Garner for 8 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 13TD4 plays · 75 yds · 0:4815% → 26%
PITTDrive 14PUNT5 plays · -4 yds · 0:0078% → 77%
Q2 3:40
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
78.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the Pitt 31 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Pitt Chad Voytik , return for no gain to the Pitt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 15END OF HALF13 plays · 36 yds · 2:3326% → 28%
Q2 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
73.0%
Kyle Pohl pass incomplete to Zach D'Orazio, broken up by Reggie MitchellSimilar
Q2 2:48
3RD & 9
OWN 45
+5
74.0%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, offside defense (Darryl Render) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 2:48
3RD & 4
50
+9
72.9%
Kyle Pohl pass complete to Fransohn Bickley for 9 yds to the Pitt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-10
69.0%
Kyle Pohl sacked by David Durham for a loss of 10 yards to the Pitt 40Similar
Q2 0:15
2ND & 20
OPP 40
+9
72.0%
Kyle Pohl pass complete to Fransohn Bickley for 9 yds to the Pitt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 16TD10 plays · 75 yds · 2:4726% → 44%
PITTDrive 17FG15 plays · 47 yds · 5:5861% → 63%
Q3 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
61.1%
Chad Voytik pass complete to Tyler Boyd for 9 yds to the Pitt 46Similar
Q3 12:13
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+12
63.6%
Chad Voytik pass complete to Manasseh Garner for 12 yds to the Akron 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:13
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+12
64.0%
Chad Voytik pass complete to Manasseh Garner for 12 yds to the Akron 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:13
2ND & 10
OPP 24
0
65.2%
Chad Voytik pass incomplete to Tyler Boyd, broken up by C.J. MizellSimilar
Q3 6:26
3RD & 0
OPP 6
-10
59.3%
Chad Voytik pass complete to Tyler Boyd for 6 yards to the AKRON0, clock 06:26, PENALTY UP holding (Dorian Johnson) 10 yards to the AKRON16, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 18PUNT11 plays · 24 yds · 2:4941% → 47%
PITTDrive 19PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0055% → 53%
Q3 3:17
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
52.9%
Ryan Winslow punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Imani Davis at the Akron 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 20TD11 plays · 70 yds · 3:5553% → 78%
Q4 14:12
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+11
42.3%
Kyle Pohl pass complete to Anthony Ritossa for 11 yds to the Pitt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:12
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+15
41.4%
Kyle Pohl pass complete to L.T. Smith for 15 yds to the Pitt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:12
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+11
41.1%
Kyle Pohl pass complete to Zach D'Orazio for 11 yds to the Pitt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 21INT8 plays · 61 yds · 0:0024% → 31%
Q4 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+9
23.8%
Chad Voytik pass complete to Tyler Boyd for 9 yds to the Pitt 23Similar
Q4 12:20
2ND & 1
OWN 23
+11
24.8%
Chad Voytik pass complete to Tyler Boyd for 11 yds to the Pitt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:20
2ND & 2
OWN 42
+4
27.0%
Chad Voytik pass complete to Jaymar Parrish for 4 yds to the Pitt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+17
26.7%
Chad Voytik pass complete to J.P. Holtz for 17 yds to the Akron 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+12
28.3%
Chad Voytik pass complete to Tyler Boyd for 12 yds to the Akron 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+17
30.6%
Chad Voytik pass intercepted DeAndre Scott return for 8 yds to the Akron 17 AKRON Penalty, personal foul (N/A) to the Akron 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 22PUNT13 plays · 27 yds · 3:3883% → 92%
Q4 9:30
2ND & 8
OWN 11
+14
16.9%
Kyle Pohl pass complete to Zach D'Orazio for 14 yds to the Akron 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 0
0
14.2%
PENALTY AKRON unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, PENALTY UP unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
15.8%
Jawon Chisholm run for 9 yds to the Akron 43 Jawon Chisholm fumbled, forced by Nicholas Grigsby, recovered by Akron N/ASimilar
Q4 5:52
4TH & 10
OWN 36
+59
8.2%
Zach Paul punt for 59 yds , Tyler Boyd returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 23DOWNS17 plays · 65 yds · 1:0411% → 9%
Q4 5:13
2ND & 7
OWN 7
+5
9.9%
Chad Voytik pass intercepted by SCOTT, DeAndre at the UP10, SCOTT, DeAndre return to the UP0, clock 05:13, PENALTY AKRON offside defense (OKAFOR, Nmesoma) 5 yards to the UP12, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:13
2ND & 2
OWN 12
+1
10.3%
Chad Voytik pass complete to Kevin Weatherspoon for 1 yd to the Pitt 13Similar
Q4 5:13
3RD & 1
OWN 13
-10
10.0%
Chad Voytik sacked by Nmesoma Okafor for a loss of 10 yards to the Pitt 3Similar
Q4 4:37
4TH & 11
OWN 3
+22
6.7%
Chad Voytik pass complete to Isaac Bennett for 22 yds to the Pitt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:37
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+26
7.5%
Chad Voytik pass complete to Rachid Ibrahim for 26 yds to the Akron 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:37
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+5
9.2%
Chad Voytik pass incomplete to Ronald Jones (SCOTT, DeAndre), PENALTY AKRON offside defense (LAWRENCE, Hakeem) 5 yards to the AKRON44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:37
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+4
10.1%
Chad Voytik pass complete to Isaac Bennett for 4 yds to the Akron 40Similar
Q4 4:37
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-8
9.7%
Chad Voytik sacked by Jatavis Brown for a loss of 8 yards to the Akron 45Similar
Q4 4:37
2ND & 18
OPP 45
+8
8.7%
Chad Voytik pass complete to Isaac Bennett for 8 yds to the Akron 37Similar
Q4 4:37
4TH & 5
OPP 32
+1
9.2%
Chad Voytik pass complete to Rachid Ibrahim for 1 yd to the Akron 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 24END OF GAME3 plays · -4 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 12:20
Cody Grice run for 2 yds for a TD, (Robert Stein KICK)
-19.4
TD · Q3 12:13
Cody Grice run for 1 yd for a TD, (Robert Stein KICK)
-14
KEY PLAY · Q4 9:30
Conor Hundley run for 2 yds to the Akron 11
-13.7