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PITT

Pittsburgh 35 at North Carolina 40

UNC
2014 · Week 12 · Nov 15, 2014 · Kenan Stadium
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Win probability · UNC
modelUNC aheadPITT aheadconfidence bandkey playUNC scorePITT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 9:30 · Ryan Winslow punt for 29 yds, downed at the NCaro 13
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+26.0+13.00−13.0−26.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 154Home team on offense+7.7Score differential+0.6Pregame prior+0.7Garbage-time factor+2.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 13:48: Ryan Switzer 63 Yd pass from Marquise Williams (PAT blocked) — UNC win probability +15.0 pts (now 53%) (top driver: One-score game).
  2. TD · Q3 4:44: Charles Brunson 17 Yd Run (Thomas Moore Kick) — UNC win probability +21.4 pts (now 57%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:03: Marquise Williams run for 45 yds for a TD, (Marquise Williams pass to Jack Tabb for Two-Point Conversion) — UNC win probability +24.1 pts (now 79%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 3:33: James Conner 22 Yd Run (Chris Blewitt Kick) — PITT win probability +42.5 pts (now 68%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:50: T.J. Logan 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — UNC win probability +41.8 pts (now 96%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNC made the numbers' call on 6 of 7PITT made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 11:55UNC 4th & 4 at UNC 41, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.7%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:59PITT 4th & 7 at PITT 34, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.7%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:49UNC 4th & 10 at PITT 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.2%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    53.0%−0.3
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    53.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:31UNC 4th & 13 at UNC 22, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.4%−1.6
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:17PITT 4th & 9 at UNC 27, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 56.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.1%−0.7
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.8%
    62% to make
    Punt
    51.7%−5.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:28PITT 4th & 2 at UNC 40, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 53.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    52.1%−1.6
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    52.4%−1.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:46UNC 4th & 10 at UNC 10, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.4%−1.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.5%
    average punt
  8. Q3 3:05PITT 4th & 6 at PITT 28, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.7%−1.8
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.5%
    average punt
  9. Q4 14:34UNC 4th & 1 at PITT 46, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 52.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    52.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    42.8%−10.0
    23% to make
    Punt
    46.5%−6.2
    average punt
  10. Q4 9:30PITT 4th & 12 at UNC 42, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.3%−0.4
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    21.3%−0.4
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    21.7%
    average punt
  11. Q4 8:05UNC 4th & 6 at UNC 17, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.1%−1.5
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.6%
    average punt
  12. Q4 4:04PITT 4th & 1 at UNC 24, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    18.5%−6.0
    68% to make
    Punt
    8.9%−15.7
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:26UNC 4th & 2 at PITT 29, down 1
    Numbers favored field goal by 8.1 ptsWent for it · 51.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.5%−8.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    53.6%
    58% to make
    Punt
    26.4%−27.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNC made the numbers' call on 4 of 6PITT made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 12:27PITT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:33PITT Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:03UNC Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:57PITT Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:17UNC Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    38.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    38.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 13:48UNC Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    53.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 6:17PITT Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 4:44UNC Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 14:03UNC Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    69.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    69.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 3:33PITT Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.7%−2.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 0:50UNC Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    82.4%−1.7
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    84.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PITTDrive 1TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 2:2145% → 46%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
54.9%
James Conner run for 7 yds to the Pitt 27Similar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 3
OWN 27
0
54.9%
Chris James run for no gain to the Pitt 27Similar
Q1 13:36
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+10
55.0%
Isaac Bennett run for 10 yds to the Pitt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
55.0%
James Conner run for 7 yds to the Pitt 44Similar
Q1 12:27
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+56
54.0%
James Conner 56 Yd Run (Chris Blewitt Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:2854% → 54%
Q1 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
54.2%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Ryan SwitzerSimilar
Q1 12:20
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+6
54.1%
T.J. Logan run for 6 yds to the NCaro 41Similar
Q1 12:07
3RD & 4
OWN 41
0
54.2%
Marquise Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:55
4TH & 4
OWN 41
0
53.9%
Tommy Hibbard punt for 39 yds, downed at the Pitt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 1:4646% → 46%
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
53.9%
James Conner run for 5 yds to the Pitt 26Similar
Q1 11:03
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+5
53.6%
James Conner run for 5 yds to the Pitt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
53.5%
Chris James run for 3 yds to the Pitt 34Similar
Q1 10:12
2ND & 7
OWN 34
0
53.2%
Chad Voytik pass incomplete to Scott OrndoffSimilar
Q1 10:06
3RD & 7
OWN 34
0
53.4%
Chad Voytik pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:59
4TH & 7
OWN 34
0
53.6%
Ryan Winslow punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Ryan Switzer at the NCaro 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 4FUMBLE
9 plays · 33 yds · 1:5453% → 53%
Q1 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+10
53.4%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Mack Hollins for 10 yds to the NCaro 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
53.4%
Marquise Williams run for 7 yds to the NCaro 40Similar
Q1 9:04
2ND & 3
OWN 40
+4
53.7%
T.J. Logan run for 4 yds to the NCaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
53.4%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 8 yds to the Pitt 48Similar
Q1 8:28
2ND & 2
OPP 48
+4
53.7%
T.J. Logan run for 4 yds to the Pitt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:07
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
53.6%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Mack HollinsSimilar
Q1 8:03
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
53.5%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Jack TabbSimilar
Q1 7:58
3RD & 10
OPP 44
0
53.1%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Bug HowardSimilar
Q1 7:49
4TH & 10
OPP 44
+1
52.6%
Tommy Hibbard punt for 29 yds , Tyler Boyd returns for 1 yd to the Pitt 16 Tyler Boyd fumbled, recovered by Pitt Tyler BoydSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 5TD
10 plays · 84 yds · 5:0848% → 56%
Q1 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+16
52.4%
Chris James run for 16 yds to the Pitt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
51.9%
Chad Voytik run for 5 yds to the Pitt 37Similar
Q1 6:31
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+5
51.5%
James Conner run for 5 yds to the Pitt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
51.1%
Chad Voytik run for 3 yds to the Pitt 45Similar
Q1 5:08
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+3
50.8%
Rachid Ibrahim run for 3 yds to the Pitt 48Similar
Q1 4:35
3RD & 4
OWN 48
+4
50.7%
Chad Voytik pass complete to J.P. Holtz for 4 yds to the NCaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:13
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
50.1%
Chad Voytik pass complete to J.P. Holtz for 7 yds to the NCaro 41Similar
Q1 3:40
2ND & 3
OPP 41
-9
49.8%
James Conner run for 1 yd to the NCaro 40 PITTSBURGH Penalty, Offensive Holding (Tyler Boyd) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 2:48
2ND & 12
50
+34
49.7%
Chad Voytik pass complete to Tyler Boyd for 34 yds to the NCaro 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:33
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
44.4%
James Conner 16 Yd Run (Chris Blewitt Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:2946% → 45%
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
45.5%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Ryan Switzer for a loss of 3 yards to the NCaro 22Similar
Q1 1:55
2ND & 13
OWN 22
0
45.3%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Mack HollinsSimilar
Q1 1:41
3RD & 13
OWN 22
0
44.9%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Mack HollinsSimilar
Q1 1:31
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
44.7%
Tommy Hibbard punt for 42 yds, downed at the Pitt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 7MISSED FG
5 plays · 36 yds · 1:4856% → 58%
Q1 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+35
43.6%
Chad Voytik pass complete to Tyler Boyd for 35 yds to the NCaro 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:41
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
42.8%
James Conner run for 2 yds to the NCaro 26Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 26
-1
42.2%
James Conner run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 27Similar
Q2 14:45
3RD & 9
OPP 27
0
42.3%
Chad Voytik run for no gain to the NCaro 27Similar
Q2 14:17
4TH & 9
OPP 27
+45
42.4%
Chris Blewitt 45 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Kedrick DavisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 8TD
14 plays · 72 yds · 2:1444% → 52%
Q2 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-5
43.9%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NCaro 23Similar
Q2 14:00
1ST & 15
OWN 23
-1
43.4%
Khris Francis run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 22Similar
Q2 13:50
2ND & 16
OWN 22
0
42.9%
Marquise Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:45
3RD & 16
OWN 22
+7
42.5%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Reggie Mitchell) to the NCaro 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
43.0%
Marquise Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:30
2ND & 10
OWN 29
0
42.8%
Marquise Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:23
3RD & 10
OWN 29
+16
42.4%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Bug Howard for 16 yds to the NCaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
44.0%
T.J. Logan run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 12:59
2ND & 5
50
+12
43.9%
T.J. Logan run for 12 yds to the Pitt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:54
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+10
43.9%
T.J. Logan run for 10 yds to the Pitt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
44.8%
Marquise Williams run for no gain to the Pitt 28Similar
Q2 12:15
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+5
44.2%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Pitt 23Similar
Q2 12:03
2ND & 5
OPP 23
+23
52.4%
Marquise Williams 23 Yd Run (Thomas Moore Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 35 yds · 3:3051% → 53%
Q2 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
48.9%
Chad Voytik run for 3 yds to the Pitt 28Similar
Q2 11:29
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+11
48.6%
James Conner run for 11 yds to the Pitt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+13
47.3%
Chad Voytik pass complete to J.P. Holtz for 13 yds to the NCaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
46.6%
James Conner run for 3 yds to the NCaro 45Similar
Q2 9:40
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+5
46.0%
James Conner run for 5 yds to the NCaro 40Similar
Q2 9:10
3RD & 2
OPP 40
0
45.9%
James Conner run for no gain to the NCaro 40Similar
Q2 8:28
4TH & 2
OPP 40
0
46.7%
Ryan Winslow punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Ryan Switzer at the NCaro 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:3848% → 45%
Q2 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
47.5%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Khris FrancisSimilar
Q2 8:18
2ND & 10
OWN 10
0
47.5%
Khris Francis run for no gain to the NCaro 10Similar
Q2 7:53
3RD & 10
OWN 10
0
45.6%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Kendrick SingletonSimilar
Q2 7:46
4TH & 10
OWN 10
0
45.2%
Tommy Hibbard punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Tyler Boyd at the Pitt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 11TD
2 plays · 51 yds · 0:3956% → 65%
Q2 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
44.0%
Chris James run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 6:57
2ND & 9
50
+50
35.1%
Tyler Boyd 50 Yd pass from Chad Voytik (Chris Blewitt Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 12TD
21 plays · 80 yds · 6:2436% → 43%
Q2 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-3
36.4%
Marquise Williams run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCaro 17Similar
Q2 6:12
2ND & 13
OWN 17
+8
35.9%
Marquise Williams run for 8 yds to the NCaro 25Similar
Q2 5:51
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+7
35.8%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Quinshad Davis for 7 yds to the NCaro 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+12
36.0%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Jack Tabb for 12 yds to the NCaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
37.1%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Quinshad Davis for no gain to the NCaro 44Similar
Q2 4:42
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+2
36.6%
Marquise Williams run for 2 yds to the NCaro 46Similar
Q2 4:34
3RD & 8
OWN 46
+10
36.4%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Quinshad Davis for 10 yds to the Pitt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:13
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
36.8%
T.J. Logan run for 2 yds to the Pitt 42Similar
Q2 3:58
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+10
36.6%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Bug Howard for 10 yds to the Pitt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-1
37.2%
Marquise Williams sacked by Rori Blair for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 33Similar
Q2 3:12
2ND & 11
OPP 33
-5
38.3%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (Lucas Crowley) to the Pitt 38Similar
Q2 2:50
2ND & 16
OPP 38
+15
36.2%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Kendrick Singleton for 15 yds to the Pitt 23Similar
Q2 2:34
3RD & 1
OPP 23
+2
36.8%
Marquise Williams run for 2 yds to the Pitt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-2
37.6%
Marquise Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the Pitt 23Similar
Q2 1:52
2ND & 12
OPP 23
+10
36.3%
Marquise Williams run for 10 yds to the Pitt 13Similar
Q2 1:30
3RD & 2
OPP 13
+5
35.0%
T.J. Logan run for 5 yds to the Pitt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
35.9%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Quinshad Davis for 6 yds to the Pitt 2Similar
Q2 0:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
35.7%
T.J. Logan run for no gain to the Pitt 2Similar
Q2 0:17
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
43.4%
Marquise Williams 2 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0062% → 62%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
37.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 14TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:0339% → 53%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
38.8%
Marquise Williams run for no gain to the NCaro 25Similar
Q3 14:29
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
38.5%
T.J. Logan run for 7 yds to the NCaro 32Similar
Q3 14:03
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+5
38.3%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Bug Howard for 5 yds to the NCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+63
53.3%
Ryan Switzer 63 Yd pass from Marquise Williams (PAT blocked)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 15TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 7:1950% → 71%
Q3 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
49.8%
James Conner run for 6 yds to the Pitt 31Similar
Q3 13:11
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+4
48.3%
James Conner run for 4 yds to the Pitt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+21
48.9%
Chad Voytik pass complete to Tyler Boyd for 21 yds to the NCaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:13
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
46.9%
Chad Voytik run for 9 yds to the NCaro 35Similar
Q3 11:39
2ND & 1
OPP 35
-10
45.4%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, Offensive Holding (Matt Rotheram) to the NCaro 45Similar
Q3 11:14
2ND & 11
OPP 45
-9
47.0%
Chad Voytik sacked by Ethan Farmer for a loss of 9 yards to the Pitt 46Similar
Q3 10:28
3RD & 20
OWN 46
+20
50.0%
Chad Voytik pass complete to Tyler Boyd for 20 yds to the NCaro 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:08
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+9
45.3%
James Conner run for 9 yds to the NCaro 25Similar
Q3 9:25
2ND & 1
OPP 25
+6
44.9%
James Conner run for 6 yds to the NCaro 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:47
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
44.7%
James Conner run for 1 yd to the NCaro 18Similar
Q3 8:12
2ND & 9
OPP 18
+7
44.5%
James Conner run for 7 yds to the NCaro 11Similar
Q3 7:32
3RD & 2
OPP 11
+3
45.9%
James Conner run for 3 yds to the NCaro 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
44.2%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Substitution Infraction (4 Yards) to the NCaro 4Similar
Q3 6:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
43.9%
James Conner run for 2 yds to the NCaro 2Similar
Q3 6:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
29.5%
James Conner 2 Yd Run (Chris Blewitt Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 16TD
8 plays · 92 yds · 1:1632% → 57%
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+17
32.1%
Marquise Williams pass complete to T.J. Logan for 17 yds to the NCaro 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
32.5%
T.J. Logan run for 8 yds to the NCaro 33Similar
Q3 5:30
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+10
34.0%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Mack Hollins for 10 yds to the NCaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
34.1%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Austin Proehl for 5 yds to the NCaro 48Similar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+15
34.8%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, Roughing Passer (Darryl Render) to the Pitt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:51
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+20
35.3%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Quinshad Davis for 20 yds to the Pitt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:44
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
56.8%
Charles Brunson 17 Yd Run (Thomas Moore Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:2753% → 50%
Q3 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
47.1%
Chad Voytik run for 2 yds to the Pitt 26Similar
Q3 3:48
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+2
46.9%
Rachid Ibrahim run for 2 yds to the Pitt 28Similar
Q3 3:16
3RD & 6
OWN 28
0
47.7%
Chad Voytik pass incomplete to J.P. HoltzSimilar
Q3 3:05
4TH & 6
OWN 28
-2
49.6%
Ryan Winslow punt for 51 yds , Ryan Switzer returns for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 18TD
12 plays · 81 yds · 4:0250% → 79%
Q3 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-5
49.9%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (Jack Tabb) to the NCaro 14Similar
Q3 2:59
1ST & 15
OWN 14
+8
49.6%
Marquise Williams pass complete to T.J. Thorpe for 8 yds to the NCaro 22Similar
Q3 2:30
2ND & 7
OWN 22
+9
49.8%
Marquise Williams pass complete to T.J. Logan for 9 yds to the NCaro 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
50.5%
Marquise Williams run for 7 yds to the NCaro 38Similar
Q3 1:38
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+2
54.2%
T.J. Logan run for 2 yds to the NCaro 40Similar
Q3 1:14
3RD & 1
OWN 40
+5
52.8%
Marquise Williams run for 5 yds to the NCaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
53.9%
Charles Brunson run for no gain to the NCaro 45Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+6
51.8%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Jack Tabb for 6 yds to the Pitt 49Similar
Q4 14:51
3RD & 4
OPP 49
+3
54.1%
Marquise Williams run for 3 yds to the Pitt 46Similar
Q4 14:34
4TH & 1
OPP 46
+1
51.9%
T.J. Logan run for 1 yd to the Pitt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:12
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
55.2%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Mack HollinsSimilar
Q4 14:03
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+45
79.3%
Marquise Williams run for 45 yds for a TD, (Marquise Williams pass to Jack Tabb for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 19PUNT
11 plays · 33 yds · 4:2831% → 25%
Q4 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
69.2%
Tyler Boyd run for 5 yds to the Pitt 30Similar
Q4 13:22
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
68.6%
James Conner run for 3 yds to the Pitt 33Similar
Q4 12:51
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
69.1%
Isaac Bennett run for 3 yds to the Pitt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
68.7%
Chad Voytik pass incomplete to Adonis JenningsSimilar
Q4 12:12
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+4
71.2%
James Conner run for 4 yds to the Pitt 40Similar
Q4 11:20
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+20
70.7%
Chad Voytik pass complete to Adonis Jennings for 20 yds to the NCaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:36
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
67.3%
Isaac Bennett run for no gain to the NCaro 40Similar
Q4 10:13
2ND & 10
OPP 40
-2
69.5%
Chad Voytik run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 42Similar
Q4 9:40
3RD & 12
OPP 42
0
72.3%
Chad Voytik pass incomplete to Tyler BoydSimilar
Q4 9:30
4TH & 12
OPP 42
0
75.3%
Ryan Winslow punt for 29 yds, downed at the NCaro 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:1583% → 81%
Q4 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-3
82.7%
Ryan Switzer run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCaro 10Similar
Q4 8:52
2ND & 13
OWN 10
0
82.7%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Mack HollinsSimilar
Q4 8:39
3RD & 13
OWN 10
+7
81.7%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Mack Hollins for 7 yds to the NCaro 17Similar
Q4 8:05
4TH & 6
OWN 17
0
81.4%
Tommy Hibbard punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Tyler Boyd at the Pitt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 21TD
9 plays · 62 yds · 4:2227% → 68%
Q4 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
73.5%
James Conner run for 8 yds to the Pitt 46Similar
Q4 7:23
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+3
71.4%
James Conner run for 3 yds to the Pitt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
71.3%
Chad Voytik pass complete to J.P. Holtz for 7 yds to the NCaro 44Similar
Q4 6:17
2ND & 3
OPP 44
+11
70.4%
James Conner run for 11 yds to the NCaro 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:47
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+7
69.6%
James Conner run for 7 yds to the NCaro 26Similar
Q4 5:10
2ND & 3
OPP 26
0
69.8%
Isaac Bennett run for no gain to the NCaro 26Similar
Q4 4:32
3RD & 3
OPP 26
+2
72.2%
Isaac Bennett run for 2 yds to the NCaro 24Similar
Q4 4:04
4TH & 1
OPP 24
+2
74.5%
Chad Voytik run for 2 yds to the NCaro 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
32.0%
James Conner 22 Yd Run (Chris Blewitt Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 22TD
17 plays · 75 yds · 2:3548% → 96%
Q4 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
47.9%
T.J. Logan run for 6 yds to the NCaro 31Similar
Q4 3:11
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+6
50.4%
T.J. Logan run for 6 yds to the NCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
48.7%
Marquise Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:52
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
48.1%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Charles BrunsonSimilar
Q4 2:46
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+12
44.7%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Mack Hollins for 12 yds to the NCaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+14
52.8%
T.J. Logan run for 14 yds to the Pitt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:26
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
56.1%
Marquise Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:18
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+2
55.8%
Marquise Williams run for 2 yds to the Pitt 35Similar
Q4 1:37
3RD & 8
OPP 35
+6
55.4%
Marquise Williams run for 6 yds to the Pitt 29Similar
Q4 1:26
4TH & 2
OPP 29
+6
49.3%
Marquise Williams run for 6 yds to the Pitt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-1
55.6%
T.J. Logan run for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 24Similar
Q4 0:56
2ND & 11
OPP 24
+23
54.5%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Quinshad Davis for 23 yds to the Pitt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
96.3%
T.J. Logan 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 23FUMBLE
3 plays · 7 yds · 0:2012% → 23%
Q4 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
88.0%
Chad Voytik pass complete to Adonis Jennings for 7 yds to the Pitt 27Similar
Q4 0:15
2ND & 3
OPP 27
+36
77.0%
Chad Voytik run for 21 yds to the NCaro 30 Chad Voytik fumbled, recovered by NCaro Shakeel Rashad NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the NCaro 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 24END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
96.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:33
James Conner 22 Yd Run (Chris Blewitt Kick)
-42.5
TD · Q4 0:50
T.J. Logan 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
+41.8
TD · Q4 14:03
Marquise Williams run for 45 yds for a TD, (Marquise Williams pass to Jack Tabb for Two-Point Conversion)
+24.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com