Try the model
UNC

North Carolina 28 at Virginia 27

UVA
2014 · Week 9 · Oct 25, 2014 · Scott Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · UVA
modelUVA aheadUNC aheadconfidence bandkey playUVA scoreUNC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 13:00 · Alec Vozenilek punt for 41 yds , Ryan Switzer returns for 27 yds to the Virg 29
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+22.0+11.00−11.0−22.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 61Pregame prior+15.6Home team on offense−0.2Score differential−0.3Garbage-time factor−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:21: Marquise Williams run for 52 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK) — UNC win probability +4.6 pts (now 29%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 0:55: Marquise Williams pass complete to Mack Hollins for 57 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK) — UNC win probability +5.5 pts (now 33%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 6:02: Greyson Lambert pass complete to Kevin Parks for 5 yds for a TD, (Ian Frye KICK) — UVA win probability +6.5 pts (now 77%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 4:48: Marquise Williams pass complete to Mack Hollins for 63 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK) — UNC win probability +13.5 pts (now 37%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:05: Mitch Trubisky pass complete to T.J. Thorpe for 16 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK) — UNC win probability +32.0 pts (now 62%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UVA made the numbers' call on 7 of 8UNC made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00UNC 4th & 13 at UNC 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.5%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:08UNC 4th & 14 at UNC 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.4%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:21UVA 4th & 6 at UVA 29, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.5%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.7%
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00UVA 4th & 12 at UVA 5, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.1%−0.9
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:00UNC 4th & 8 at UVA 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.5%−0.3
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.8%
    72% to make
    Punt
    31.3%−2.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:00UVA 4th & 17 at UVA 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.5%−1.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:05UNC 4th & 2 at UVA 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    34.1%−0.5
    74% to make
    Punt
    31.3%−3.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:48UVA 4th & 1 at UVA 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    64.8%−1.0
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:28UVA 4th & 10 at UNC 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.3%−1.4
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.7%
    85% to make
    Punt
    60.6%−5.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:58UNC 4th & 17 at UNC 17, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.1%−3.5
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.7%
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:39UVA 4th & 8 at UNC 20, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 69.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.4%−1.2
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.6%
    75% to make
    Punt
    61.7%−8.0
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:39UNC 4th & 7 at UVA 38, down 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 28.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.9%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    27.7%−1.2
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    27.7%−1.2
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:40UVA 4th & 7 at UVA 4, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.9%−3.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.3%
    average punt
  14. Q4 15:00UNC 4th & 9 at UVA 38, down 6
    Close callPunted · 27.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.5%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    27.0%−0.5
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    26.9%−0.6
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:53UVA 4th & 2 at UVA 10, up 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.2 ptsPunted · 76.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.3%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.1%−2.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:18UNC 4th & 12 at UVA 26, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 24.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.2%−2.9
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.1%
    64% to make
    Punt
    14.7%−9.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UVA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3UNC made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 9:08UVA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:06UVA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:21UNC Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 0:55UNC Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 6:02UVA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 4:48UNC Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 4:05UNC Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.5%−2.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNCDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
71.6%
Marquise Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-4
71.6%
Marquise Williams run for a loss of 4 yards to the NCaro 21Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+1
71.6%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Romar Morris for 1 yd to the NCaro 22Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
71.6%
Tommy Hibbard punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 2TD
9 plays · 66 yds · 4:3771% → 73%
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+9
71.4%
Kevin Parks run for 9 yds to the Virg 43Similar
Q1 13:45
2ND & 1
OWN 43
+9
71.5%
Kevin Parks run for 9 yds to the NCaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
71.5%
Kevin Parks run for 2 yds to the NCaro 46Similar
Q1 13:45
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+4
71.5%
Kevin Parks run for 4 yds to the NCaro 42Similar
Q1 13:45
3RD & 4
OPP 42
+6
71.5%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 6 yds to the NCaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
71.5%
Greyson Lambert run for 6 yds to the NCaro 30Similar
Q1 13:45
2ND & 4
OPP 30
+5
71.6%
Taquan Mizzell run for 5 yds to the NCaro 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-6
71.6%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Kevin Parks for a loss of 6 yards to the NCaro 31Similar
Q1 9:08
2ND & 16
OPP 31
+31
72.8%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Canaan Severin for 31 yds for a TD, (Ian Frye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 23 yds · 0:0028% → 27%
Q1 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
72.4%
Romar Morris run for 2 yds to the NCaro 27Similar
Q1 9:08
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+10
72.3%
Romar Morris run for 10 yds to the NCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
72.2%
VIRGINIA Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Maurice Canady) to the Virg 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:08
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
71.9%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Romar MorrisSimilar
Q1 9:08
2ND & 10
OPP 48
-4
72.0%
Marquise Williams run for a loss of 4 yards to the NCaro 48 Marquise Williams fumbled, recovered by NCaro Marquise WilliamsSimilar
Q1 9:08
3RD & 14
OWN 48
0
72.4%
Marquise Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:08
4TH & 14
OWN 48
0
72.6%
Tommy Hibbard punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 4TD
11 plays · 90 yds · 4:1473% → 77%
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+10
72.6%
Kevin Parks run for 10 yds to the Virg 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
72.7%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive pass interference (15 Yards) to the Virg 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
72.7%
Kevin Parks run for 11 yds to the Virg 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
73.2%
Kevin Parks run for 2 yds to the Virg 48Similar
Q1 7:20
2ND & 8
OWN 48
0
73.2%
Greyson Lambert pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:20
3RD & 8
OWN 48
+22
72.9%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Miles Gooch for 22 yds to the NCaro 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
73.3%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Keeon Johnson for 1 yd to the NCaro 29Similar
Q1 7:20
2ND & 9
OPP 29
+23
73.3%
Miles Gooch pass complete to Greyson Lambert for 23 yds to the NCaro 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
73.9%
Kevin Parks run for 4 yds to the NCaro 2Similar
Q1 3:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
77.4%
Kevin Parks run for 2 yds for a TD, (Ian Frye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 5TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 0:4524% → 29%
Q1 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
76.3%
Marquise Williams pass complete to T.J. Thorpe for 7 yds to the NCaro 32Similar
Q1 3:06
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
75.9%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to T.J. ThorpeSimilar
Q1 3:06
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+16
76.1%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Austin Proehl for 16 yds to the NCaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+52
71.5%
Marquise Williams run for 52 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0073% → 72%
Q1 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
72.8%
Greyson Lambert pass incomplete to Miles GoochSimilar
Q1 2:21
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
72.7%
Kevin Parks run for 4 yds to the Virg 29Similar
Q1 2:21
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
72.5%
Greyson Lambert pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:21
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
72.0%
Alec Vozenilek punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 7TD
2 plays · 70 yds · 0:3128% → 33%
Q1 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+13
72.3%
Ryan Switzer run for 13 yds to the NCaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+57
66.8%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Mack Hollins for 57 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 8PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 0:5569% → 67%
Q1 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+3
68.5%
Kevin Parks run for 3 yds to the Virg 10Similar
Q1 0:55
2ND & 7
OWN 10
0
68.6%
Greyson Lambert pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:55
3RD & 7
OWN 10
0
68.1%
Greyson Lambert pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 10
-5
67.5%
VIRGINIA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Virg 5Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 12
OWN 5
+10
67.2%
Alec Vozenilek punt for 48 yds , Ryan Switzer returns for 10 yds to the Virg 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 9MISSED FG
6 plays · 21 yds · 1:4834% → 34%
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+19
66.1%
Marquise Williams run for 4 yds to the Virg 39 for a 1ST down VIRGINIA Penalty, personal foul (NA) to the Virg 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-10
65.4%
Marquise Williams sacked by Mike Moore and Eli Harold for a loss of 10 yards to the Virg 34Similar
Q2 14:48
2ND & 20
OPP 34
+7
66.3%
Marquise Williams pass complete to T.J. Logan for 7 yds to the Virg 27Similar
Q2 14:48
3RD & 13
OPP 27
+5
66.9%
VIRGINIA Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the Virg 22Similar
Q2 14:48
3RD & 8
OPP 22
0
66.3%
Marquise Williams pass complete to T.J. Logan for no gain to the Virg 22Similar
Q2 13:00
4TH & 8
OPP 22
+39
66.4%
Nick Weiler 39 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 10PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 0:0068% → 67%
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
68.2%
Taquan Mizzell run for no gain to the Virg 22Similar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+1
68.1%
Taquan Mizzell run for 1 yd to the Virg 23Similar
Q2 13:00
3RD & 9
OWN 23
-8
67.4%
Greyson Lambert sacked by Jessie Rogers for a loss of 8 yards to the Virg 15Similar
Q2 13:00
4TH & 17
OWN 15
+27
66.9%
Alec Vozenilek punt for 41 yds , Ryan Switzer returns for 27 yds to the Virg 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 11DOWNS
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0036% → 35%
Q2 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
63.8%
Marquise Williams run for 3 yds to the Virg 26Similar
Q2 11:05
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+3
63.8%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Bug Howard for 3 yds to the Virg 23Similar
Q2 11:05
3RD & 4
OPP 23
+2
64.5%
Marquise Williams pass complete to T.J. Logan for 2 yds to the Virg 21Similar
Q2 11:05
4TH & 2
OPP 21
-7
65.4%
Marquise Williams sacked by David Dean for a loss of 7 yards to the Virg 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 12TD
7 plays · 72 yds · 3:2268% → 77%
Q2 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
67.8%
Greyson Lambert pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:24
2ND & 10
OWN 28
0
67.5%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Khalek Shepherd for no gain to the Virg 28Similar
Q2 9:24
3RD & 10
OWN 28
+24
66.6%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Canaan Severin for 24 yds to the NCaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:24
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-2
69.7%
Khalek Shepherd run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 9:24
2ND & 12
50
+42
68.6%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Darius Jennings for 42 yds to the NCaro 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
70.1%
Kevin Parks run for 3 yds to the NCaro 5Similar
Q2 6:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
76.6%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Kevin Parks for 5 yds for a TD, (Ian Frye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 13TD
6 plays · 87 yds · 1:1426% → 37%
Q2 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
74.2%
T.J. Logan run for 2 yds to the NCaro 15Similar
Q2 5:37
2ND & 8
OWN 15
0
75.4%
Romar Morris run for no gain to the NCaro 15Similar
Q2 5:37
3RD & 8
OWN 15
+22
76.2%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Jack Tabb for 22 yds to the NCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+63
62.7%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Mack Hollins for 63 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 14FG
16 plays · 62 yds · 4:2067% → 69%
Q2 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
66.8%
Kevin Parks run for 2 yds to the Virg 27Similar
Q2 4:48
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+6
66.9%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 6 yds to the Virg 33Similar
Q2 4:48
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
66.8%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Zachary Swanson for 1 yd to the Virg 34Similar
Q2 4:48
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+2
65.8%
Greyson Lambert run for 2 yds to the Virg 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
67.6%
Greyson Lambert pass incomplete to Miles Gooch, broken up by Sam SmileySimilar
Q2 4:48
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
67.2%
Greyson Lambert pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:48
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+10
66.1%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Zachary Swanson for 10 yds to the Virg 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
68.8%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Kevin Parks for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 4:48
2ND & 6
50
0
69.1%
Greyson Lambert pass incomplete to Kevin ParksSimilar
Q2 4:48
3RD & 6
50
+22
68.4%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Darius Jennings for 22 yds to the NCaro 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:48
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+15
69.8%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Doni Dowling for 15 yds to the NCaro 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:48
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
69.8%
Greyson Lambert pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:48
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
69.8%
Greyson Lambert pass incomplete to Canaan Severin, broken up by Jeff SchoettmerSimilar
Q2 4:48
3RD & 10
OPP 13
0
68.9%
Greyson Lambert pass incomplete to Kevin ParksSimilar
Q2 0:28
4TH & 10
OPP 13
+31
69.0%
Ian Frye 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 15INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
66.9%
Marquise Williams pass intercepted Quin Blanding return for no gain to the Virg 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 16MISSED FG
5 plays · 43 yds · 0:1769% → 72%
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+16
68.5%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Kevin Parks for 16 yds to the Virg 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
70.8%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive offside (Jessie Rogers) to the Virg 45Similar
Q2 0:08
1ST & 5
OWN 45
+22
71.4%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Keeon Johnson for 22 yds to the NCaro 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+50
72.3%
Ian Frye 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 17INT
13 plays · 69 yds · 0:0069% → 71%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+9
68.7%
Kevin Parks run for 9 yds to the Virg 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 30
+5
70.1%
Kevin Parks run for 5 yds to the Virg 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
69.1%
Kevin Parks run for 2 yds to the Virg 37Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 37
0
69.5%
Greyson Lambert pass incomplete to Andre LevroneSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+15
68.5%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, roughing passer (Jessie Rogers) to the NCaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+17
71.4%
Darius Jennings run for 17 yds to the NCaro 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+7
72.0%
Greyson Lambert run for 7 yds to the NCaro 24Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 24
+2
72.0%
Khalek Shepherd run for 2 yds to the NCaro 22Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 22
+10
71.0%
Kevin Parks run for 10 yds to the NCaro 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
72.0%
Kevin Parks run for 2 yds to the NCaro 10Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 10
0
72.0%
Greyson Lambert pass incomplete to Zachary Swanson, broken up by Des LawrenceSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 10
+8
71.1%
Greyson Lambert pass intercepted Des Lawrence return for 8 yds to the NCaro 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0032% → 29%
Q3 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+14
68.2%
Marquise Williams run for 14 yds to the NCaro 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
68.0%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Bug Howard, broken up by Maurice CanadySimilar
Q3 9:58
2ND & 10
OWN 24
0
68.2%
Marquise Williams run for a loss of 7 yards to the NCaro 17 Marquise Williams fumbled, recovered by NCaro Marquise Williams , return for no gain to the NCaro 17Similar
Q3 9:58
3RD & 17
OWN 17
0
69.6%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Romar Morris, broken up by Quin BlandingSimilar
Q3 9:58
4TH & 17
OWN 17
+6
70.6%
Tommy Hibbard punt for 35 yds , Khalek Shepherd returns for 6 yds to the NCaro 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 19FG
8 plays · 26 yds · 3:1273% → 76%
Q3 8:51
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+13
72.6%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 13 yds to the NCaro 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:51
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
73.4%
Kevin Parks run for 5 yds to the NCaro 28Similar
Q3 8:51
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+4
73.4%
Darius Jennings run for 4 yds to the NCaro 24Similar
Q3 8:51
3RD & 1
OPP 24
+2
72.2%
Kevin Parks run for 2 yds to the NCaro 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:51
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
73.4%
Greyson Lambert pass incomplete to Taquan MizzellSimilar
Q3 8:51
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+2
73.3%
Khalek Shepherd run for 2 yds to the NCaro 20Similar
Q3 8:51
3RD & 8
OPP 20
0
72.2%
Greyson Lambert pass incomplete to Canaan SeverinSimilar
Q3 5:39
4TH & 8
OPP 20
+37
75.7%
Ian Frye 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 20PUNT
11 plays · 37 yds · 0:0027% → 28%
Q3 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
72.9%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Mack Hollins, broken up by Quin BlandingSimilar
Q3 5:39
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-1
73.1%
Marquise Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 24Similar
Q3 5:39
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+20
74.5%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Quinshad Davis for 20 yds to the NCaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
70.5%
T.J. Logan run for no gain to the NCaro 44Similar
Q3 5:39
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+15
71.4%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Damien Washington for 15 yds to the Virg 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-5
69.3%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Virg 46Similar
Q3 5:39
1ST & 15
OPP 46
+1
71.0%
T.J. Logan run for 1 yd to the Virg 45Similar
Q3 5:39
2ND & 14
OPP 45
+7
71.5%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Kendrick Singleton for 7 yds to the Virg 38Similar
Q3 5:39
3RD & 7
OPP 38
0
69.8%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Kendrick Singleton, broken up by Max VallesSimilar
Q3 5:39
4TH & 7
OPP 38
0
72.0%
Tommy Hibbard punt for 37 yds, downed at the Virg 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0077% → 75%
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
77.2%
Greyson Lambert run for 2 yds to the Virg 3Similar
Q3 2:40
2ND & 8
OWN 3
0
76.9%
Greyson Lambert pass incomplete to Andre LevroneSimilar
Q3 2:40
3RD & 8
OWN 3
+1
75.9%
Kevin Parks run for 1 yd to the Virg 4Similar
Q3 2:40
4TH & 7
OWN 4
+6
74.8%
Alec Vozenilek punt for 56 yds , Ryan Switzer returns for 6 yds to the NCaro 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 1:1731% → 27%
Q3 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
69.4%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Jack TabbSimilar
Q3 1:17
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+15
70.7%
VIRGINIA Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Brandon Phelps) to the Virg 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
68.6%
Khris Francis run for 4 yds to the Virg 35Similar
Q3 1:17
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+4
66.3%
Khris Francis run for 4 yds to the Virg 31Similar
Q3 1:17
3RD & 2
OPP 31
-2
68.3%
Marquise Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the Virg 33Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 4
OPP 33
-5
71.1%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, false start (Landon Turner) to the Virg 38Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 9
OPP 38
0
72.8%
Tommy Hibbard punt for 36 yds, downed at the Virg 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0079% → 77%
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+3
78.8%
Kevin Parks run for 3 yds to the Virg 5Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 7
OWN 5
+6
78.6%
Kevin Parks run for 6 yds to the Virg 11Similar
Q4 14:53
3RD & 1
OWN 11
-1
77.9%
Kevin Parks run for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 10Similar
Q4 14:53
4TH & 2
OWN 10
+41
76.7%
Alec Vozenilek punt for 41 yds , Ryan Switzer returns for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 24MISSED FG
7 plays · 26 yds · 1:3331% → 25%
Q4 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
69.5%
T.J. Logan run for 6 yds to the Virg 46Similar
Q4 12:51
2ND & 4
OPP 46
+7
67.7%
T.J. Logan run for 7 yds to the Virg 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:51
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+15
68.4%
VIRGINIA Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Brandon Phelps) to the Virg 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:51
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-2
65.9%
T.J. Logan run for a loss of 2 yards to the Virg 26Similar
Q4 12:51
2ND & 12
OPP 26
0
66.7%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Quinshad DavisSimilar
Q4 12:51
3RD & 12
OPP 26
0
70.3%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to T.J. ThorpeSimilar
Q4 11:18
4TH & 12
OPP 26
+43
75.1%
Nick Weiler 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 25INT
10 plays · 39 yds · 0:0083% → 85%
Q4 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
83.3%
Kevin Parks run for 2 yds to the Virg 28Similar
Q4 11:18
2ND & 8
OWN 28
0
83.2%
Greyson Lambert pass incomplete to Keeon Johnson, broken up by M.J. StewartSimilar
Q4 11:18
3RD & 8
OWN 28
+9
82.1%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Kyle Dockins for 9 yds to the Virg 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
84.0%
Taquan Mizzell run for 8 yds to the Virg 45Similar
Q4 11:18
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+3
85.3%
Taquan Mizzell run for 3 yds to the Virg 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
85.3%
Greyson Lambert run for 4 yds to the NCaro 48Similar
Q4 11:18
2ND & 6
OPP 48
-2
85.4%
Khalek Shepherd run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 11:18
3RD & 8
50
+18
84.0%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Darius Jennings for 18 yds to the NCaro 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:18
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-3
85.8%
Darius Jennings run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCaro 35Similar
Q4 11:18
2ND & 13
OPP 35
+20
85.1%
Greyson Lambert pass intercepted Nazair Jones return for 20 yds to the Virg 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 26TD
6 plays · 38 yds · 2:0427% → 62%
Q4 6:09
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
72.7%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Bug Howard, broken up by DreQuan HoskeySimilar
Q4 6:09
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
72.7%
Marquise Williams run for no gain to the Virg 38Similar
Q4 6:09
3RD & 10
OPP 38
+27
74.8%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 27 yds to the Virg 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:09
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
69.9%
Marquise Williams run for 5 yds to the Virg 6Similar
Q4 6:09
2ND & 5
OPP 6
-10
69.9%
Marquise Williams sacked by Eli Harold for a loss of 10 yards to the Virg 16Similar
Q4 4:05
3RD & 15
OPP 16
+16
37.9%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to T.J. Thorpe for 16 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 27END OF GAME
15 plays · 36 yds · 2:4864% → 81%
Q4 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
36.3%
T.J. Logan run for 2 yds to the NCaro 48Similar
Q4 4:05
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+12
36.2%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Quinshad Davis for 12 yds to the Virg 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
35.5%
Marquise Williams run for 4 yds to the Virg 36Similar
Q4 2:48
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+7
29.1%
Marquise Williams run for 7 yds to the Virg 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:41
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-6
26.1%
T.J. Logan run for a loss of 6 yards to the Virg 35Similar
Q4 2:34
2ND & 16
OPP 35
+9
27.3%
T.J. Logan run for 9 yds to the Virg 26Similar
Q4 2:34
3RD & 7
OPP 26
+5
28.5%
Marquise Williams run for 5 yds to the Virg 21 NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive holding (NA) declinedSimilar
Q4 1:17
4TH & 2
OPP 21
+5
23.6%
VIRGINIA Penalty, substitution infraction (NA) to the Virg 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-1
18.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 17Similar
Q4 1:17
2ND & 11
OPP 17
-1
19.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 4:05
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to T.J. Thorpe for 16 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)
-32
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-19.3
TD · Q2 4:48
Marquise Williams pass complete to Mack Hollins for 63 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)
-13.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com