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UNC

North Carolina 43 at Notre Dame 50

ND
2014 · Week 7 · Oct 11, 2014 · Notre Dame Stadium
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Win probability · ND
modelND aheadUNC aheadconfidence bandkey playND scoreUNC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 13:38 · Tommy Hibbard punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Cody Riggs at the NDame 38
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+37.0+18.50−18.5−37.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 114Pregame prior+19.7Home team on offense+1.5Garbage-time factor+0.1Score differential+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.2Blowout margin+0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:20: Marquise Williams pass complete to Quinshad Davis for 20 yds for a TD, (Tommy Hibbard failed ) — UNC win probability +8.3 pts (now 27%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 3:37: Nick Weiler 19 yd FG GOOD — UNC win probability +8.7 pts (now 25%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:11: Quinshad Davis pass complete to Marquise Williams for 23 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK) — UNC win probability +25.2 pts (now 45%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 10:39: Everett Golson pass complete to Tarean Folston for 9 yds for a TD, (Two pt pass, Everett Golson pass to Ben Koyack GOOD) — ND win probability +25.5 pts (now 89%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:47: Marquise Williams pass complete to Mack Hollins for 18 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK) — UNC win probability +11.9 pts (now 15%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ND made the numbers' call on 5 of 6UNC made the numbers' call on 3 of 7
  1. Q1 12:35ND 4th & 5 at ND 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.3%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:55UNC 4th & 5 at ND 20, up 7
    Close callWent for it · 17.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.1%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    17.1%
    75% to make
    Punt
    16.5%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:10UNC 4th & 23 at UNC 16, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.6%−0.8
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:31ND 4th & 1 at UNC 14, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 77.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    77.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    76.3%−1.0
    84% to make
    Punt
    73.3%−4.0
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:08UNC 4th & 1 at UNC 34, tied
    Close callPunted · 20.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.3%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:36ND 4th & 1 at ND 34, up 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 77.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.8%−1.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:00ND 4th & 10 at ND 33, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.6%−2.0
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.6%
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:38UNC 4th & 17 at UNC 18, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.2%−2.8
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.0%
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:34UNC 4th & 7 at ND 33, down 9
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 15.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.7%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    15.5%−0.2
    49% to make
    PuntTheir call
    14.7%−1.0
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:33ND 4th & 11 at ND 46, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.2%−1.4
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:09UNC 4th & 5 at UNC 18, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.6%−0.6
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.2%
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:11ND 4th & 14 at ND 45, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.7%−2.2
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.9%
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:37UNC 4th & 2 at ND 2, down 9
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 14.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    12.8%−2.3
    94% to make
    Punt
    2.8%−12.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ND made the numbers' call on 5 of 7UNC made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 13:28UNC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:48UNC Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 7:09ND Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 14:57ND Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 9:56ND Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 2:25ND Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 11:52ND Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 3:11UNC Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 10:39ND Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    77.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    77.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 2:19ND Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.2%−0.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.6%
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 0:47UNC Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NDDrive 1FUMBLE
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:3887% → 87%
Q1 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
86.7%
Cam McDaniel run for 3 yds to the NDame 28Similar
Q1 14:28
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
86.7%
Everett Golson pass incomplete to Chris BrownSimilar
Q1 14:11
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+9
86.6%
Everett Golson run for 9 yds to the NDame 37 Everett Golson fumbled, forced by Jessie Rogers, recovered by NCaro Sam SmileySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 2TD
3 plays · 37 yds · 0:3714% → 14%
Q1 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+24
86.5%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 24 yds to the NDame 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+7
86.3%
Elijah Hood run for 7 yds to the NDame 6Similar
Q1 13:28
2ND & 3
OPP 6
+6
86.0%
Elijah Hood 6 Yd Run (Nick Weiler Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:4686% → 86%
Q1 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
86.1%
Everett Golson pass incomplete to Ben KoyackSimilar
Q1 12:51
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
85.8%
Tarean Folston run for 5 yds to the NDame 30Similar
Q1 12:47
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
85.8%
Everett Golson pass incomplete to Tarean FolstonSimilar
Q1 12:35
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
85.6%
Kyle Brindza punt for 36 yds, downed at the NCaro 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 4MISSED FG
11 plays · 51 yds · 3:0614% → 16%
Q1 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
85.6%
Elijah Hood run for 4 yds to the NCaro 38Similar
Q1 12:04
2ND & 6
OWN 38
0
85.3%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Romar MorrisSimilar
Q1 11:55
3RD & 6
OWN 38
+7
85.3%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Bug Howard for 7 yds to the NCaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-1
85.0%
Marquise Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 44Similar
Q1 11:05
2ND & 11
OWN 44
+21
84.8%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Romar Morris for 21 yds to the NDame 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:39
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+9
84.4%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Bug Howard for 9 yds to the NDame 26Similar
Q1 10:30
2ND & 1
OPP 26
+4
84.3%
Elijah Hood run for 4 yds to the NDame 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:14
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
84.2%
Elijah Hood run for 2 yds to the NDame 20Similar
Q1 10:10
2ND & 8
OPP 20
0
84.1%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Ryan SwitzerSimilar
Q1 9:55
4TH & 5
OPP 20
+5
84.2%
Marquise Williams run for 5 yds to the NDame 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+32
83.7%
Nick Weiler 32 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 5INT TD
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:2284% → 82%
Q1 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
83.9%
Tarean Folston run for 3 yds to the NDame 23Similar
Q1 8:48
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+29
82.3%
Everett Golson pass intercepted for a TD Jeff Schoettmer return for 29 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 6TD
6 plays · 88 yds · 1:2182% → 83%
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
82.0%
Everett Golson pass incomplete to C.J. ProsiseSimilar
Q1 8:15
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+37
81.9%
Everett Golson pass complete to Tarean Folston for 37 yds to the NDame 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+15
82.1%
Everett Golson run for 15 yds to the NCaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:47
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+23
82.1%
Everett Golson pass complete to William Fuller for 23 yds to the NCaro 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:09
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
83.4%
Everett Golson pass complete to William Fuller for 13 yds for a TD, (Kyle Brindza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 7PUNT
9 plays · 1 yds · 2:2918% → 19%
Q1 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
82.3%
T.J. Logan run for 4 yds to the NCaro 19Similar
Q1 6:29
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+3
82.2%
T.J. Logan run for 3 yds to the NCaro 22Similar
Q1 6:15
3RD & 3
OWN 22
+7
82.1%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Bug Howard for 7 yds to the NCaro 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
81.4%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Quinshad DavisSimilar
Q1 5:26
2ND & 10
OWN 29
-5
81.5%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (Landon Turner) to the NCaro 24Similar
Q1 5:03
2ND & 15
OWN 24
-4
81.4%
Marquise Williams run for a loss of 4 yards to the NCaro 20Similar
Q1 4:17
3RD & 19
OWN 20
-4
81.0%
Elijah Hood run for a loss of 4 yards to the NCaro 16Similar
Q1 4:10
4TH & 23
OWN 16
0
81.2%
Tommy Hibbard punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Cody Riggs at the NDame 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 8TD
12 plays · 58 yds · 4:0581% → 83%
Q1 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
81.3%
Everett Golson pass incomplete to Amir CarlisleSimilar
Q1 3:58
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
81.0%
Everett Golson pass incomplete to Corey RobinsonSimilar
Q1 3:29
3RD & 10
OWN 42
+21
80.5%
Everett Golson pass complete to Amir Carlisle for 21 yds to the NCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:13
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
81.2%
Everett Golson run for no gain to the NCaro 37Similar
Q1 2:39
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+3
80.9%
Everett Golson run for 3 yds to the NCaro 34Similar
Q1 1:51
3RD & 7
OPP 34
+11
80.0%
Everett Golson pass complete to Chris Brown for 11 yds to the NCaro 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
80.4%
Greg Bryant run for 5 yds to the NCaro 18Similar
Q1 0:59
2ND & 5
OPP 18
+4
80.0%
Everett Golson pass complete to Greg Bryant for 4 yds to the NCaro 14Similar
Q1 0:41
3RD & 1
OPP 14
0
79.4%
Everett Golson run for no gain to the NCaro 14Similar
Q1 0:31
4TH & 1
OPP 14
+2
78.8%
Everett Golson run for 2 yds to the NCaro 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:14
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+11
79.6%
Everett Golson pass complete to William Fuller for 11 yds to the NCaro 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
83.1%
Cam McDaniel run for 1 yd for a TD, (Kyle Brindza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:2319% → 19%
Q2 14:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
81.1%
T.J. Logan run for 3 yds to the NCaro 28Similar
Q2 14:16
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
80.9%
Ryan Switzer run for 3 yds to the NCaro 31Similar
Q2 13:20
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+3
80.6%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Mack Hollins for 3 yds to the NCaro 34Similar
Q2 13:08
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
80.8%
Tommy Hibbard punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Cody Riggs at the NDame 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 10TD
7 plays · 77 yds · 3:0581% → 85%
Q2 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+19
81.2%
Everett Golson pass complete to Chris Brown for 19 yds to the NDame 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+17
81.8%
Everett Golson run for 17 yds to the NCaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+9
82.0%
Everett Golson pass complete to Ben Koyack for 9 yds to the NCaro 32Similar
Q2 11:20
2ND & 1
OPP 32
+12
82.1%
Amir Carlisle run for 12 yds to the NCaro 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:01
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
82.0%
Greg Bryant run for 5 yds to the NCaro 15Similar
Q2 10:35
2ND & 5
OPP 15
+8
81.9%
Everett Golson pass complete to Greg Bryant for 8 yds to the NCaro 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
85.4%
Greg Bryant run for 7 yds for a TD, (Kyle Brindza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 11TD
21 plays · 75 yds · 5:4016% → 24%
Q2 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
84.1%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (Lucas Crowley) to the NCaro 20Similar
Q2 9:28
1ST & 15
OWN 20
-1
84.1%
Elijah Hood run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 19Similar
Q2 9:10
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+15
84.2%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Jack Tabb for 15 yds to the NCaro 34Similar
Q2 8:46
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
83.6%
Elijah Hood run for 2 yds to the NCaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
83.4%
Marquise Williams run for 5 yds to the NCaro 41Similar
Q2 8:01
2ND & 5
OWN 41
-1
83.1%
Elijah Hood run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 40Similar
Q2 7:34
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+9
83.6%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Jack Tabb for 9 yds to the NCaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+25
82.8%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Mack Hollins for 25 yds to the NDame 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:21
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
81.8%
Marquise Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:13
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+3
82.0%
Marquise Williams run for 3 yds to the NDame 23Similar
Q2 6:47
3RD & 7
OPP 23
+14
82.6%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Quinshad Davis for 14 yds to the NDame 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-1
81.6%
Marquise Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 10Similar
Q2 6:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+8
81.5%
Williams, Marquise pass incomplete to Hollins, Mack, PENALTY NOTREDAME pass interference 8 yards to the NOTREDAME2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UNC. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
81.4%
Elijah Hood run for no gain to the NDame 2Similar
Q2 5:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
81.3%
Marquise Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 3 Marquise Williams fumbled, recovered by NCaro Marquise WilliamsSimilar
Q2 5:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
82.1%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Nick Watkins) to the NDame 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
81.2%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Carson WootenSimilar
Q2 4:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
81.0%
Elijah Hood run for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 3Similar
Q2 4:16
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
76.1%
Marquise Williams run for 3 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:2179% → 78%
Q2 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-12
79.2%
Golson, Everett pass complete to Fuller, William for 14 yards to the NOTREDAME39, PENALTY NOTREDAME personal foul (Elmer, Steve) 12 yards to the NOTREDAME13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:44
1ST & 22
OWN 13
+14
79.0%
Everett Golson pass complete to Tarean Folston for 14 yds to the NDame 27Similar
Q2 3:19
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
79.0%
Everett Golson pass complete to Tarean Folston for 7 yds to the NDame 34Similar
Q2 2:49
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
78.9%
Everett Golson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:36
4TH & 1
OWN 34
-12
77.7%
Kyle Brindza punt for 40 yds , Ryan Switzer returns for a loss of 12 yards to the NCaro 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 13FUMBLE
1 play · -8 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q2 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-8
77.7%
Elijah Hood run for a loss of 8 yards to the NCaro 6 Elijah Hood fumbled, forced by Joe Schmidt, recovered by NDame Elijah ShumateSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 14TD
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q2 2:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
86.3%
Tarean Folston run for 6 yds for a TD, (Kyle Brindza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 15TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 1:0016% → 27%
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
84.4%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Ryan SwitzerSimilar
Q2 2:14
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+13
84.6%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Mack Hollins for 13 yds to the NCaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
83.6%
Marquise Williams run for 11 yds to the NCaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
82.9%
Marquise Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:40
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+26
83.4%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Romar Morris for 26 yds to the NDame 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
81.0%
Romar Morris run for 5 yds to the NDame 20Similar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 5
OPP 20
+20
72.7%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Quinshad Davis for 20 yds for a TD, (Tommy Hibbard failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 12 yds · 0:5478% → 76%
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
78.1%
Everett Golson pass incomplete to Chris BrownSimilar
Q2 0:38
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
77.8%
Everett Golson pass complete to Cam McDaniel for no gain to the NDame 33Similar
Q2 0:09
3RD & 10
OWN 33
0
76.4%
Everett Golson pass incomplete to Cam McDanielSimilar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 10
OWN 33
0
76.0%
Kyle Brindza punt for 38 yds , Ryan Switzer returns for no gain to the NCaro 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · -7 yds · 1:0923% → 21%
Q3 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
77.2%
Elijah Hood run for no gain to the NCaro 25Similar
Q3 14:29
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
77.2%
Elijah Hood run for 3 yds to the NCaro 28Similar
Q3 13:55
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-10
77.5%
Williams, Marquise rush for 9 yards to the UNC37, PENALTY UNC holding (Ferranto, John) 10 yards to the UNC18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:45
3RD & 17
OWN 18
0
77.9%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Ryan SwitzerSimilar
Q3 13:38
4TH & 17
OWN 18
0
78.6%
Tommy Hibbard punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Cody Riggs at the NDame 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 18TD
5 plays · 62 yds · 1:3679% → 87%
Q3 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
78.5%
Tarean Folston run for 9 yds to the NDame 47Similar
Q3 13:09
2ND & 1
OWN 47
+5
79.4%
Tarean Folston run for 5 yds to the NCaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:47
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
79.4%
Tarean Folston run for 1 yd to the NCaro 47Similar
Q3 12:19
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+12
79.1%
C.J. Prosise run for 12 yds to the NCaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:52
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
87.2%
Everett Golson pass complete to William Fuller for 35 yds for a TD, (Kyle Brindza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 42 yds · 1:1015% → 16%
Q3 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
84.9%
Marquise Williams run for 11 yds to the NCaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+28
84.3%
Marquise Williams run for 28 yds to the NDame 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
83.2%
T.J. Logan run for 3 yds to the NDame 33Similar
Q3 11:05
2ND & 7
OPP 33
0
82.1%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Damien WashingtonSimilar
Q3 10:45
3RD & 7
OPP 33
0
83.4%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Mack HollinsSimilar
Q3 10:34
4TH & 7
OPP 33
0
84.5%
Tommy Hibbard punt for 33 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 26 yds · 1:4686% → 85%
Q3 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
85.6%
Tarean Folston run for 6 yds to the NDame 26Similar
Q3 9:46
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+21
86.2%
Everett Golson pass complete to William Fuller for 21 yds to the NDame 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-1
87.2%
Tarean Folston run for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 46Similar
Q3 8:45
2ND & 11
OWN 46
0
86.8%
Everett Golson pass incomplete to C.J. ProsiseSimilar
Q3 8:39
3RD & 11
OWN 46
0
86.0%
Everett Golson pass incomplete to William FullerSimilar
Q3 8:33
4TH & 11
OWN 46
+40
85.0%
Kyle Brindza punt for 40 yds , Ryan Switzer returns for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:1314% → 13%
Q3 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+6
86.1%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Jack Tabb for 6 yds to the NCaro 19Similar
Q3 7:44
2ND & 4
OWN 19
+3
86.0%
Marquise Williams run for 3 yds to the NCaro 22Similar
Q3 7:38
3RD & 1
OWN 22
-4
86.3%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (Caleb Peterson) to the NCaro 18Similar
Q3 7:17
3RD & 5
OWN 18
0
86.7%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Quinshad DavisSimilar
Q3 7:09
4TH & 5
OWN 18
0
87.3%
Tommy Hibbard punt for 33 yds, downed at the NDame 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:4387% → 85%
Q3 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-4
87.4%
Greg Bryant run for a loss of 4 yards to the NDame 45Similar
Q3 6:26
2ND & 14
OWN 45
0
86.9%
Everett Golson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:19
3RD & 14
OWN 45
0
86.1%
Everett Golson pass incomplete to William FullerSimilar
Q3 6:11
4TH & 14
OWN 45
0
85.2%
Kyle Brindza punt for 55 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 23FG
9 plays · 78 yds · 2:1714% → 25%
Q3 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+41
85.9%
Marquise Williams run for 41 yds to the NDame 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
84.2%
Elijah Hood run for 4 yds to the NDame 35Similar
Q3 5:18
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+8
83.2%
Elijah Hood run for 8 yds to the NDame 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:58
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+17
83.5%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Mack Hollins for 17 yds to the NDame 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
83.5%
Ryan Switzer run for 4 yds to the NDame 6Similar
Q3 4:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
83.4%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Mack HollinsSimilar
Q3 4:04
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
84.5%
Marquise Williams run for 4 yds to the NDame 2Similar
Q3 3:37
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+19
74.9%
Nick Weiler 19 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 24FUMBLE
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q3 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+10
80.0%
Everett Golson run for 10 yds to the NDame 23 Everett Golson fumbled, forced by Brian Walker, recovered by NCaroSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 25TD
1 play · 23 yds · 0:0045% → 45%
Q3 3:11
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
54.9%
Quinshad Davis pass complete to Marquise Williams for 23 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 26TD
24 plays · 81 yds · 7:0663% → 89%
Q3 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
62.8%
Everett Golson run for no gain to the NDame 19Similar
Q3 2:18
2ND & 10
OWN 19
-5
62.1%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (Nick Martin) to the NDame 14Similar
Q3 2:02
2ND & 15
OWN 14
-6
60.4%
Everett Golson sacked by Nathan Staub for a loss of 6 yards to the NDame 8Similar
Q3 1:19
3RD & 21
OWN 8
+32
56.9%
Everett Golson pass complete to William Fuller for 32 yds to the NDame 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
64.3%
Everett Golson pass incomplete to Amir CarlisleSimilar
Q3 0:58
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+2
61.9%
Amir Carlisle run for 2 yds to the NDame 42Similar
Q3 0:33
3RD & 8
OWN 42
0
59.8%
Everett Golson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:26
4TH & 8
OWN 42
-5
58.0%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NDame 37Similar
Q3 0:24
4TH & 13
OWN 37
-5
56.6%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (Greer Martini) to the NDame 32Similar
Q3 0:13
4TH & 18
OWN 32
+15
56.1%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the NDame 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
64.0%
Tarean Folston run for 8 yds to the NCaro 45Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 2
OPP 45
+15
64.7%
Golson, Everett pass incomplete to Fuller, William, PENALTY UNC pass interference (Davis, Kedrick) 15 yards to the UNC30, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NOTREDAME. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:43
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+8
66.1%
Tarean Folston run for 8 yds to the NCaro 22Similar
Q4 14:05
2ND & 2
OPP 22
+5
65.7%
Tarean Folston run for 5 yds to the NCaro 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:39
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-10
65.5%
Golson, Everett pass incomplete, PENALTY NOTREDAME holding (Stanley, Ronnie) 10 yards to the UNC27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:33
1ST & 20
OPP 27
+5
64.6%
Amir Carlisle run for 5 yds to the NCaro 22Similar
Q4 12:56
2ND & 15
OPP 22
+4
64.0%
Everett Golson pass complete to Tarean Folston for 4 yds to the NCaro 18Similar
Q4 12:34
3RD & 11
OPP 18
+15
62.0%
Everett Golson pass complete to Corey Robinson for 15 yds to the NCaro 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
64.5%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, Illegal Shift (-5 Yards) to the NCaro 8Similar
Q4 11:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-10
64.2%
Folston, Tarean rush for 7 yards to the UNC1, PENALTY NOTREDAME holding (Stanley, Ronnie) 10 yards to the UNC18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 18
+9
63.7%
Everett Golson pass complete to Corey Robinson for 9 yds to the NCaro 9Similar
Q4 10:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
63.6%
Everett Golson pass incomplete to Amir CarlisleSimilar
Q4 10:39
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
89.1%
Everett Golson pass complete to Tarean Folston for 9 yds for a TD, (Two pt pass, Everett Golson pass to Ben Koyack GOOD)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 27INT
11 plays · 54 yds · 3:0816% → 19%
Q4 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
83.9%
Marquise Williams run for 6 yds to the NCaro 26Similar
Q4 9:56
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+2
82.6%
Elijah Hood run for 2 yds to the NCaro 28Similar
Q4 9:26
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+5
83.2%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Damien Washington for 5 yds to the NCaro 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
82.3%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Mack Hollins for 8 yds to the NCaro 41Similar
Q4 8:49
2ND & 2
OWN 41
+15
80.6%
Williams, Marquise pass incomplete to Hollins, Mack, PENALTY NOTREDAME pass interference (Riggs, Cody) 15 yards to the NOTREDAME44, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UNC. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:44
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
79.5%
Marquise Williams pass complete to T.J. Logan for 5 yds to the NDame 39Similar
Q4 8:39
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+7
78.8%
Marquise Williams run for 7 yds to the NDame 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
77.6%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Ryan SwitzerSimilar
Q4 7:27
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+6
79.7%
Marquise Williams pass complete to T.J. Logan for 6 yds to the NDame 26Similar
Q4 7:14
3RD & 4
OPP 26
0
81.0%
Marquise Williams pass intercepted Cole Luke return for no gain to the NDame 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 28TD
14 plays · 81 yds · 4:3689% → 99%
Q4 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
88.9%
Tarean Folston run for 4 yds to the NDame 23Similar
Q4 6:35
2ND & 6
OWN 23
+20
88.9%
Tarean Folston run for 20 yds to the NDame 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-2
91.3%
Everett Golson pass complete to William Fuller for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 41Similar
Q4 5:32
2ND & 12
OWN 41
+6
91.0%
Cam McDaniel run for 6 yds to the NDame 47Similar
Q4 4:53
3RD & 6
OWN 47
+10
90.8%
Golson, Everett pass incomplete to Fuller, William, PENALTY UNC pass interference (Walker, Brian) 10 yards to the UNC43, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NOTREDAME. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+15
91.8%
Golson, Everett pass incomplete to Fuller, William, PENALTY UNC pass interference (Walker, Brian) 15 yards to the UNC28, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NOTREDAME. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:36
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-1
91.9%
Tarean Folston run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 29Similar
Q4 3:34
2ND & 11
OPP 29
+5
93.7%
Tarean Folston run for 5 yds to the NCaro 24Similar
Q4 3:08
3RD & 6
OPP 24
+9
93.9%
Everett Golson run for 9 yds to the NCaro 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:32
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
94.5%
Tarean Folston run for 4 yds to the NCaro 11Similar
Q4 2:23
2ND & 6
OPP 11
+5
95.1%
Tarean Folston run for 5 yds to the NCaro 6Similar
Q4 2:19
3RD & 1
OPP 6
+6
98.6%
Tarean Folston run for 6 yds for a TD, (Kyle Brindza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 29TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 1:222% → 15%
Q4 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
97.7%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Austin Proehl for 11 yds to the NCaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
97.6%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Ryan SwitzerSimilar
Q4 1:52
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+4
97.5%
Marquise Williams run for 4 yds to the NCaro 40Similar
Q4 1:43
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+8
97.6%
Marquise Williams run for 8 yds to the NCaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+12
97.6%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Romar Morris for 12 yds to the NDame 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
97.0%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Ryan SwitzerSimilar
Q4 1:09
2ND & 10
OPP 40
-1
97.1%
Marquise Williams pass complete to T.J. Logan for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 41Similar
Q4 0:59
3RD & 11
OPP 41
+23
97.5%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Quinshad Davis for 23 yds to the NDame 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:52
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
96.7%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Quinshad DavisSimilar
Q4 0:47
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+18
84.8%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Mack Hollins for 18 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 30END OF GAME
3 plays · -4 yds · 0:2797% → 97%
Q4 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-2
96.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 47Similar
Q4 0:13
2ND & 12
OWN 47
-2
96.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:39
Everett Golson pass complete to Tarean Folston for 9 yds for a TD, (Two pt pass, Everett Golson pass to Ben Koyack GOOD)
+25.5
TD · Q3 3:11
Quinshad Davis pass complete to Marquise Williams for 23 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)
-25.2
TD · Q4 0:47
Marquise Williams pass complete to Mack Hollins for 18 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)
-11.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com