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VT

Virginia Tech 34 at North Carolina 17

UNC
2014 · Week 6 · Oct 4, 2014 · Kenan Stadium
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Win probability · UNC
modelUNC aheadVT aheadconfidence bandkey playUNC scoreVT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGTDTDFGTDTDEnd of GameFG+0.5UNC 44.8%Nick Weiler 20 yd FG GOODAWAY 7 - HOME 3 · Q1 11:38
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 11:38 · Nick Weiler 20 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+47.5+23.80−23.8−47.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 14Home team on offense−0.1Score differential−0.1Garbage-time factor−0.1Pregame prior−5.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 1:44: Joey Slye 27 yd FG GOOD — VT win probability +8.1 pts (now 74%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:01: Mitch Trubisky pass intercepted for a TD Kendall Fuller return for 47 yds for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK) — VT win probability +8.3 pts (now 81%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 13:19: Elijah Hood run for 1 yd for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK) — UNC win probability +13.8 pts (now 17%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 6:28: Joey Slye 22 yd FG GOOD — VT win probability +4.6 pts (now 96%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:15: Marquise Williams pass complete to Quinshad Davis for 9 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK) — UNC win probability +10.1 pts (now 16%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNC made the numbers' call on 6 of 11VT made the numbers' call on 11 of 12
  1. Q1 11:38UNC 4th & 3 at VT 3, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 47.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.3%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.1%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    46.4%−0.9
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:32VT 4th & 1 at VT 40, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 52.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    52.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    51.9%−0.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:59UNC 4th & 12 at UNC 23, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.2%−0.5
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:32VT 4th & 7 at UNC 37, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.3%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    56.1%−0.2
    40% to make
    Punt
    56.0%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:14UNC 4th & 2 at UNC 45, down 11
    Close callPunted · 42.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.0%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00VT 4th & 21 at VT 2, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.8%−2.8
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:36UNC 4th & 1 at VT 30, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    40.4%−1.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    39.7%−1.8
    average punt
  8. Q2 12:33VT 4th & 5 at VT 35, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.0%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.4%
    average punt
  9. Q2 11:03UNC 4th & 26 at UNC 14, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.3%−2.0
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.3%
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:44VT 4th & 10 at UNC 10, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 66.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.4%−0.7
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.1%
    88% to make
    Punt
    61.5%−4.6
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:28UNC 4th & 7 at VT 37, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 19.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.8%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    20.0%
    40% to make
    Punt
    19.2%−0.8
    average punt
  12. Q3 14:56VT 4th & 20 at VT 36, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.8%−1.9
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.8%
    average punt
  13. Q3 12:18UNC 4th & 12 at UNC 17, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.5%−1.6
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.1%
    average punt
  14. Q3 10:41VT 4th & 1 at UNC 38, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 90.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    90.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    87.7%−2.3
    38% to make
    Punt
    87.7%−2.3
    average punt
  15. Q3 10:41VT 4th & 25 at VT 49, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.5%−2.1
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.7%
    average punt
  16. Q3 7:15UNC 4th & 7 at VT 29, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 11.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.3%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    11.5%
    58% to make
    Punt
    6.6%−5.0
    average punt
  17. Q3 5:08VT 4th & 14 at VT 21, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.4%−2.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.6%
    average punt
  18. Q3 3:19UNC 4th & 9 at VT 46, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.8%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    5.9%−1.4
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    7.3%
    average punt
  19. Q3 2:03VT 4th & 14 at VT 13, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.0%−1.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.2%
    average punt
  20. Q4 15:00UNC 4th & 17 at UNC 43, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.9%−1.6
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.4%
    average punt
  21. Q4 6:28VT 4th & 5 at UNC 5, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.8%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.9%
    92% to make
    Punt
    89.3%−4.6
    average punt
  22. Q4 3:21VT 4th & 4 at UNC 42, up 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 91.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    90.3%−1.5
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    90.4%−1.4
    average punt
  23. Q4 2:24UNC 4th & 3 at UNC 32, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 2.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.6%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.6%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNC made the numbers' call on 2 of 2VT made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 14:16VT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:59VT Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:01VT Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 13:19UNC Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 4:15UNC Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.1%−0.5
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 2:30VT Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNCDrive 1FUMBLE
2 plays · -9 yds · 0:0044% → 44%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-9
44.2%
Marquise Williams sacked by Ken Ekanem for a loss of 9 yards to the NCaro 16 Marquise Williams fumbled, recovered by VTech Dadi Nicolas , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 2TD
2 plays · 16 yds · 0:3456% → 56%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+8
44.2%
Marshawn Williams run for 8 yds to the NCaro 8Similar
Q1 14:16
2ND & 2
OPP 8
+8
44.1%
Marshawn Williams run for 8 yds for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 3FG
10 plays · 64 yds · 2:3244% → 45%
Q1 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+15
44.2%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Romar Morris for 15 yds to the NCaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+23
44.2%
Marquise Williams run for 23 yds to the VTech 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
44.3%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Mack Hollins for 2 yds to the VTech 27Similar
Q1 14:10
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+9
44.3%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 9 yds to the VTech 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+11
44.3%
Marquise Williams run for 11 yds to the VTech 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
44.3%
Romar Morris run for 4 yds to the VTech 3Similar
Q1 14:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
44.3%
Romar Morris run for no gain to the VTech 3Similar
Q1 14:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
44.3%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 11:38
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
44.8%
Nick Weiler 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 4TD
13 plays · 82 yds · 5:3355% → 59%
Q1 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+7
44.7%
Marshawn Williams run for 7 yds to the VTech 25Similar
Q1 11:32
2ND & 3
OWN 25
+2
44.6%
Marshawn Williams run for 2 yds to the VTech 27Similar
Q1 11:32
3RD & 1
OWN 27
+4
44.7%
Marshawn Williams run for 4 yds to the VTech 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
44.6%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Willie Byrn for 7 yds to the VTech 38Similar
Q1 11:32
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+2
44.4%
Marshawn Williams run for 2 yds to the VTech 40Similar
Q1 11:32
3RD & 1
OWN 40
0
44.5%
Marshawn Williams run for no gain to the VTech 40Similar
Q1 11:32
4TH & 1
OWN 40
+1
44.7%
Michael Brewer run for 1 yd to the VTech 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+18
44.4%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Cam Phillips for 18 yds to the NCaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:32
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
44.3%
Trey Edmunds run for 5 yds to the NCaro 36Similar
Q1 11:32
2ND & 5
OPP 36
+2
44.3%
Trey Edmunds run for 2 yds to the NCaro 34Similar
Q1 11:32
3RD & 3
OPP 34
+8
44.3%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 8 yds to the NCaro 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:59
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
41.0%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Bucky Hodges for 26 yds for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · -2 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
Q1 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
42.4%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Jack TabbSimilar
Q1 5:59
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
42.4%
Elijah Hood run for 3 yds to the NCaro 28Similar
Q1 5:59
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-5
42.1%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, false start (N/A) to the NCaro 23Similar
Q1 5:59
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
42.0%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Jack TabbSimilar
Q1 5:59
4TH & 12
OWN 0
0
41.5%
Hibbard, T punt 48 yards to the VT29, Stroman, G return to the VT29 (Washington, D), PENALTY NC holding off-setting, PENALTY VT illegal block off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:59
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
41.8%
Tommy Hibbard punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 6DOWNS
8 plays · 20 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q1 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-5
40.6%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the VTech 38Similar
Q1 4:32
1ST & 15
OWN 38
+9
41.0%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Deon Newsome for 9 yds to the VTech 47Similar
Q1 4:32
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+13
40.6%
Marshawn Williams run for 13 yds to the NCaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:32
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-11
40.6%
Williams, M rush up middle for 17 yards to the NC23 (Scott, T), PENALTY VT holding (Teller, W) 11 yards to the VT49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:32
1ST & 21
OWN 49
+1
40.9%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Deon Newsome for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 4:32
2ND & 20
50
+4
40.9%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Willie Byrn for 4 yds to the NCaro 46Similar
Q1 4:32
3RD & 16
OPP 46
+9
41.1%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Sam Rogers for 9 yds to the NCaro 37Similar
Q1 4:32
4TH & 7
OPP 37
0
41.0%
Michael Brewer pass incomplete to Bucky HodgesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0040% → 40%
Q1 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
40.0%
Marquise Williams run for 5 yds to the NCaro 42Similar
Q1 1:14
2ND & 5
OWN 42
0
40.5%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 1:14
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+3
40.0%
Marquise Williams run for 3 yds to the NCaro 45Similar
Q1 1:14
4TH & 2
OWN 45
0
39.7%
Tommy Hibbard punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · -11 yds · 0:0661% → 60%
Q1 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-5
39.4%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, false start (N/A) to the VTech 8Similar
Q1 0:06
1ST & 15
OWN 8
0
39.6%
Trey Edmunds run for no gain to the VTech 8Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 8
-4
39.6%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, false start (Isaiah Ford) to the VTech 4Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 19
OWN 4
+4
39.6%
Trey Edmunds run for 4 yds to the VTech 8Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 15
OWN 8
-6
39.9%
Michael Brewer sacked by Nazair Jones for a loss of 6 yards to the VTech 2Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 21
OWN 2
+8
40.2%
A.J. Hughes punt for 35 yds , Ryan Switzer returns for 8 yds to the VTech 10 NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, illegal block (Norkeithus Otis) to the VTech 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 9DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0040% → 39%
Q2 13:36
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
39.9%
Marquise Williams run for 6 yds to the VTech 33Similar
Q2 13:36
2ND & 4
OPP 33
-1
40.6%
Elijah Hood run for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 34Similar
Q2 13:36
3RD & 5
OPP 34
+4
39.8%
Marquise Williams run for 4 yds to the VTech 30Similar
Q2 13:36
4TH & 1
OPP 30
0
39.1%
Marquise Williams run for no gain to the VTech 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0063% → 62%
Q2 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
37.1%
Marshawn Williams run for 1 yd to the VTech 31Similar
Q2 12:33
2ND & 9
OWN 31
0
37.1%
Michael Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:33
3RD & 9
OWN 31
+4
37.6%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Bucky Hodges for 4 yds to the VTech 35Similar
Q2 12:33
4TH & 5
OWN 35
0
37.6%
A.J. Hughes punt for 51 yds, downed at the NCaro 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 0 yds · 0:0037% → 36%
Q2 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
37.2%
N/A pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:03
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+16
37.2%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Mack Hollins for 16 yds to the NCaro 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-5
37.6%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, false start (Mack Hollins) to the NCaro 25Similar
Q2 11:03
1ST & 15
OWN 25
+1
37.2%
T.J. Logan run for 1 yd to the NCaro 26Similar
Q2 11:03
2ND & 14
OWN 26
0
37.2%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Jack TabbSimilar
Q2 11:03
3RD & 14
OWN 26
-12
36.5%
N/A run for a loss of 12 yards to the NCaro 14Similar
Q2 11:03
4TH & 26
OWN 14
-10
36.2%
Tommy Hibbard punt for 56 yds , Greg Stroman returns for a loss of 10 yards to the VTech 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 12FG
17 plays · 70 yds · 7:1564% → 74%
Q2 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
36.1%
Marshawn Williams run for no gain to the VTech 20Similar
Q2 8:59
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+7
36.2%
Deon Newsome run for 7 yds to the VTech 27Similar
Q2 8:59
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+2
36.2%
Brewer, M pass incomplete to Byrn, W (Lawrence, D), PENALTY NC pass interference (Lawrence, D) 2 yards to the VT29, 1ST DOWN VT, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+29
35.9%
Cam Phillips run for 29 yds to the NCaro 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:59
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
34.9%
Sam Rogers run for 1 yd to the NCaro 41Similar
Q2 8:59
2ND & 9
OPP 41
+1
34.9%
Bucky Hodges run for 1 yd to the NCaro 40Similar
Q2 8:59
3RD & 8
OPP 40
+16
35.1%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 16 yds to the NCaro 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:59
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
34.7%
Marshawn Williams run for no gain to the NCaro 24Similar
Q2 8:59
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+4
34.9%
Marshawn Williams run for 4 yds to the NCaro 20Similar
Q2 4:36
3RD & 6
OPP 20
+5
33.6%
Brewer, M sacked for loss of 8 yards to the NC28 (Otis, N), fumble by Brewer, M recovered by NC Schoettmer, J at NC22, PENALTY NC offside (Otis, N) 5 yards to the NC15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:36
3RD & 1
OPP 15
0
33.8%
Marshawn Williams run for no gain to the NCaro 15Similar
Q2 4:36
4TH & 1
OPP 15
+5
34.6%
Brewer, M rush quarterback sneak for no gain to the NC15 (Otis, N), PENALTY NC offside 5 yards to the NC10, 1ST DOWN VT, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
33.4%
Marshawn Williams run for no gain to the NCaro 10Similar
Q2 4:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
33.4%
Trey Edmunds run for no gain to the NCaro 10Similar
Q2 4:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
0
33.8%
Michael Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:44
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+27
25.7%
Joey Slye 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 13INT TD
4 plays · 27 yds · 0:3727% → 19%
Q2 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+11
27.1%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Jack Tabb for 11 yds to the NCaro 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+16
27.5%
Mitch Trubisky run for 16 yds to the NCaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+47
19.2%
Mitch Trubisky pass intercepted for a TD Kendall Fuller return for 47 yds for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 14DOWNS
9 plays · 31 yds · 0:3318% → 19%
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
17.9%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 3 yds to the NCaro 28Similar
Q2 1:01
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+12
17.9%
Marquise Williams run for 12 yds to the NCaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+20
18.8%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Quinshad Davis for 20 yds to the VTech 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
19.8%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Jack Tabb, broken up by Chuck ClarkSimilar
Q2 1:01
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+3
19.6%
Marquise Williams pass complete to T.J. Thorpe for 3 yds to the VTech 37Similar
Q2 0:28
3RD & 7
OPP 37
0
19.2%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to T.J. ThorpeSimilar
Q2 0:28
4TH & 7
OPP 37
-7
18.9%
Marquise Williams sacked by Ken Ekanem for a loss of 7 yards to the VTech 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 15MISSED FG
6 plays · 30 yds · 0:1887% → 88%
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-5
13.3%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the VTech 39Similar
Q2 0:18
1ST & 15
OWN 39
+16
13.6%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Cam Phillips for 16 yds to the NCaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:07
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+19
13.2%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 19 yds to the NCaro 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+43
12.1%
Joey Slye 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 16PUNT
9 plays · 19 yds · 0:0086% → 85%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
14.1%
Marshawn Williams run for no gain to the VTech 17Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+3
14.2%
Deon Newsome run for 3 yds to the VTech 20Similar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 7
OWN 20
+26
14.7%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 26 yds to the VTech 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
13.4%
Marshawn Williams run for 1 yd to the VTech 47Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 9
OWN 47
0
13.4%
Michael Brewer pass incomplete to Bucky HodgesSimilar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 9
OWN 47
-5
13.8%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, false start (David Wang) to the VTech 42Similar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 14
OWN 42
-6
14.1%
Michael Brewer sacked by Norkeithus Otis for a loss of 6 yards to the VTech 36Similar
Q3 14:56
4TH & 20
OWN 36
+1
14.8%
A.J. Hughes punt for 46 yds , Ryan Switzer returns for 1 yd to the NCaro 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q3 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-5
15.0%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, false start (Kiaro Holts) to the NCaro 14Similar
Q3 12:18
1ST & 15
OWN 14
-5
14.9%
Williams, M middle pass complete to Switzer, R for 23 yards to the NC37 (Jarrett, K), PENALTY NC ineligible downfield on pass (Ferranto, J) 5 yards to the NC9, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:18
1ST & 20
OWN 9
+12
14.7%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Austin Proehl for 12 yds to the NCaro 21Similar
Q3 12:18
2ND & 8
OWN 21
-4
14.9%
Marquise Williams sacked by Ken Ekanem for a loss of 4 yards to the NCaro 17Similar
Q3 12:18
3RD & 12
OWN 17
0
14.7%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Mack HollinsSimilar
Q3 12:18
4TH & 12
OWN 17
+5
14.7%
Tommy Hibbard punt for 35 yds , Kendall Fuller returns for 5 yds to the NCaro 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 18PUNT
9 plays · -4 yds · 0:0091% → 90%
Q3 10:41
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
9.3%
Trey Edmunds run for 5 yds to the NCaro 42Similar
Q3 10:41
2ND & 5
OPP 42
0
9.1%
Michael Brewer pass incomplete to Bucky HodgesSimilar
Q3 10:41
3RD & 5
OPP 42
+4
9.4%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Willie Byrn for 4 yds to the NCaro 38Similar
Q3 10:41
4TH & 1
OPP 38
+2
10.1%
Trey Edmunds run for 2 yds to the NCaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:41
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
9.3%
Michael Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:41
2ND & 10
OPP 36
0
9.3%
Trey Edmunds run for no gain to the NCaro 36Similar
Q3 10:41
3RD & 10
OPP 36
-5
9.4%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, false start (David Wang) to the NCaro 41Similar
Q3 10:41
3RD & 15
OPP 41
-10
9.5%
Michael Brewer sacked by Jessie Rogers for a loss of 10 yards to the VTech 49Similar
Q3 10:41
4TH & 25
OWN 49
+1
10.2%
A.J. Hughes punt for 42 yds , Ryan Switzer returns for 1 yd to the NCaro 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 19DOWNS
9 plays · 65 yds · 0:0010% → 11%
Q3 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+1
9.8%
T.J. Logan run for 1 yd to the NCaro 11Similar
Q3 7:15
2ND & 9
OWN 11
+6
9.8%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Mack Hollins for 6 yds to the NCaro 17Similar
Q3 7:15
3RD & 3
OWN 17
+25
9.9%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Quinshad Davis for 25 yds to the NCaro 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
10.9%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q3 7:15
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+26
10.7%
Marquise Williams run for 26 yds to the VTech 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
12.2%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Jack TabbSimilar
Q3 7:15
2ND & 10
OPP 32
0
12.0%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q3 7:15
3RD & 10
OPP 32
+3
11.3%
Marquise Williams run for 3 yds to the VTech 29Similar
Q3 7:15
4TH & 7
OPP 29
+4
11.1%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Mack Hollins for 4 yds to the VTech 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q3 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
4.7%
Marshawn Williams run for 1 yd to the VTech 26Similar
Q3 5:08
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-3
4.7%
Marshawn Williams run for a loss of 3 yards to the VTech 23Similar
Q3 5:08
3RD & 12
OWN 23
-5
4.9%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, false start (N/A) to the VTech 18Similar
Q3 5:08
3RD & 17
OWN 18
+3
4.9%
Michael Brewer run for 3 yds to the VTech 21Similar
Q3 5:08
4TH & 14
OWN 21
+39
5.1%
A.J. Hughes punt for 39 yds , Ryan Switzer returns for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q3 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
6.2%
T.J. Logan run for 5 yds to the NCaro 44Similar
Q3 3:19
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+9
6.4%
Marquise Williams run for 9 yds to the VTech 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:19
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
6.5%
T.J. Logan run for 1 yd to the VTech 46Similar
Q3 3:19
2ND & 9
OPP 46
0
6.5%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q3 3:19
3RD & 9
OPP 46
0
6.5%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Jack TabbSimilar
Q3 3:19
4TH & 9
OPP 46
0
6.3%
Tommy Hibbard punt for 29 yds, downed at the VTech 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:0097% → 96%
Q3 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-2
3.5%
Marshawn Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the VTech 15Similar
Q3 2:03
2ND & 12
OWN 15
+1
3.5%
Marshawn Williams run for 1 yd to the VTech 16Similar
Q3 2:03
3RD & 11
OWN 16
-3
3.6%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Trey Edmunds for a loss of 3 yards to the VTech 13Similar
Q3 2:03
4TH & 14
OWN 13
+1
3.8%
A.J. Hughes punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard line , Ryan Switzer returns for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 0:125% → 5%
Q3 0:12
1ST & 10
50
+1
5.0%
Marquise Williams pass complete to T.J. Thorpe for 1 yd to the VTech 49Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 49
-8
4.8%
Marquise Williams sacked by Donovan Riley for a loss of 8 yards to the NCaro 43Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 17
OWN 43
0
4.5%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to T.J. Thorpe, broken up by Kendall FullerSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 17
OWN 43
0
4.5%
Tommy Hibbard punt for 55 yds, downed at the VTech 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 24INT
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+1
2.9%
Trey Edmunds run for 1 yd to the VTech 3Similar
Q4 14:17
2ND & 9
OWN 3
0
2.9%
Michael Brewer pass intercepted M.J. Stewart return for no gain to the VTech 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 25TD
1 play · 16 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q4 13:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
16.7%
Elijah Hood run for 1 yd for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 26FG
17 plays · 76 yds · 6:4790% → 96%
Q4 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+9
10.2%
Trey Edmunds run for 9 yds to the VTech 28Similar
Q4 13:15
2ND & 1
OWN 28
0
9.9%
Trey Edmunds run for no gain to the VTech 28Similar
Q4 13:15
3RD & 1
OWN 28
+26
10.4%
Trey Edmunds run for 26 yds to the NCaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
9.3%
Michael Brewer pass incomplete to Willie ByrnSimilar
Q4 13:15
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+5
9.3%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Willie Byrn for 5 yds to the NCaro 41Similar
Q4 13:15
3RD & 5
OPP 41
+13
9.4%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Cam Phillips for 13 yds to the NCaro 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
8.9%
Joel Caleb run for 5 yds to the NCaro 23Similar
Q4 13:15
2ND & 5
OPP 23
+1
8.9%
Joel Caleb run for 1 yd to the NCaro 22Similar
Q4 13:15
3RD & 4
OPP 22
+4
9.0%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Willie Byrn for 4 yds to the NCaro 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+8
8.9%
J.C. Coleman run for 8 yds to the NCaro 10Similar
Q4 13:15
2ND & 2
OPP 10
+1
8.9%
J.C. Coleman run for 1 yd to the NCaro 9Similar
Q4 13:15
3RD & 1
OPP 9
+3
9.1%
Joel Caleb run for 3 yds to the NCaro 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-2
8.9%
Joel Caleb run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 8Similar
Q4 13:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
8.9%
Sam Rogers run for 3 yds to the NCaro 5Similar
Q4 13:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
9.0%
Michael Brewer pass incomplete to Ryan MalleckSimilar
Q4 6:28
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
4.4%
Joey Slye 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 27TD
8 plays · 76 yds · 2:085% → 16%
Q4 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-5
4.6%
Marquise Williams sacked by Derek Di Nardo for a loss of 5 yards to the NCaro 19Similar
Q4 6:23
2ND & 15
OWN 19
+13
4.5%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 13 yds to the NCaro 32Similar
Q4 6:23
3RD & 2
OWN 32
+22
4.9%
Marquise Williams run for 22 yds to the VTech 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:23
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+31
5.3%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 31 yds to the VTech 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:23
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-5
6.1%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, false start (Kiaro Holts) to the VTech 20Similar
Q4 6:23
1ST & 15
OPP 20
+11
5.7%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 11 yds to the VTech 9Similar
Q4 4:15
2ND & 4
OPP 9
+9
15.8%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Quinshad Davis for 9 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 28PUNT
7 plays · 6 yds · 0:5290% → 93%
Q4 4:13
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
9.6%
J.C. Coleman run for 5 yds to the NCaro 43Similar
Q4 4:13
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+1
9.5%
J.C. Coleman run for 1 yd to the NCaro 42Similar
Q4 3:26
3RD & 4
OPP 42
0
7.5%
J.C. Coleman run for no gain to the NCaro 42Similar
Q4 3:21
4TH & 4
OPP 42
0
7.2%
A.J. Hughes punt for 29 yds , Ryan Switzer returns for no gain to the NCaro 10 Ryan Switzer fumbled, recovered by VTech Deon NewsomeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 29TD
2 plays · 10 yds · 0:4294% → 98%
Q4 3:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+9
6.4%
J.C. Coleman run for 9 yds to the NCaro 1Similar
Q4 2:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
2.0%
J.C. Coleman run for 1 yd for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 30DOWNS
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
2.2%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Damien Washington for 7 yds to the NCaro 32Similar
Q4 2:24
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
2.3%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Jordan FieulleteauSimilar
Q4 2:24
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
2.3%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Elijah HoodSimilar
Q4 2:24
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
2.3%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 31END OF GAME
3 plays · 12 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
1.5%
Joel Caleb run for 3 yds to the NCaro 29Similar
Q4 1:50
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+10
1.5%
Joel Caleb run for 10 yds to the NCaro 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-1
1.5%
Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 13:19
Elijah Hood run for 1 yd for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)
+13.8
TD · Q4 4:15
Marquise Williams pass complete to Quinshad Davis for 9 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)
+10.1
TD · Q2 1:01
Mitch Trubisky pass intercepted for a TD Kendall Fuller return for 47 yds for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK)
-8.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com