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LIB

Liberty 29 at North Carolina 56

UNC
2014 · Week 1 · Aug 30, 2014 · Kenan Stadium
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Win probability · UNC
modelUNC aheadLIB aheadconfidence bandkey playUNC scoreLIB score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDSAFETYTDTDFUMBLETDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 15:00 · Tommy Hibbard punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Zac Parker at the Liber 34
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+46.5+23.30−23.3−46.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 164Pregame prior+17.5Home team on offense+33.6Score differential+28.1Garbage-time factor+12.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+9.3Blowout margin+11.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:37: D.J. Abnar run for 1 yd for a TD, (Josh Woodrum failed ), (Josh Woodrum failed ) — LIB win probability +7.5 pts (now 19%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:28: Marquise Williams run for 3 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK) — UNC win probability +4.1 pts (now 92%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  3. FUMBLE · Q3 9:25: Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Quinshad Davis for 6 yds for a TD Quinshad Davis fumbled, forced by Nick Sigmon, recovered by Liber Jacob Hagen , return for 27 yds, (Avery Echols KICK) — LIB win probability +9.5 pts (now 21%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  4. TD · Q3 5:55: Marquise Williams pass complete to Mack Hollins for 33 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK) — UNC win probability +9.3 pts (now 89%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 5:42: Josh Woodrum pass intercepted for a TD Jeff Schoettmer return for 19 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK) — UNC win probability +5.7 pts (now 94%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNC made the numbers' call on 6 of 7LIB made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00LIB 4th & 5 at LIB 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.5%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:22LIB 4th & 9 at LIB 38, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.1%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.2%
    average punt
  3. Q2 15:00UNC 4th & 6 at UNC 45, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.0%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.0%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:48LIB 4th & 9 at LIB 37, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.8%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:00UNC 4th & 3 at LIB 26, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 91.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.9%−0.2
    64% to make
    Punt
    89.6%−1.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:00LIB 4th & 6 at LIB 49, down 7
    Close callPunted · 9.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  7. Q3 14:54UNC 4th & 7 at UNC 41, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.0%−0.5
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.5%
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:19LIB 4th & 1 at LIB 17, down 6
    Close callPunted · 12.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.8%−0.9
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:40LIB 4th & 2 at LIB 28, down 6
    Close callPunted · 12.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.1%−0.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:17UNC 4th & 7 at UNC 46, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.1%−0.6
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.7%
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:43LIB 4th & 8 at LIB 13, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.1%−1.7
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:56LIB 4th & 5 at LIB 30, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  13. Q4 15:00UNC 4th & 9 at UNC 31, up 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    100.0%
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:10LIB 4th & 11 at LIB 33, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:14UNC 4th & 13 at UNC 43, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.6%−0.4
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.0%
    average punt
  16. Q4 8:27UNC 4th & 13 at UNC 46, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.8%−0.4
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNC made the numbers' call on 8 of 8LIB made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 11:25UNC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:44LIB Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 3:22UNC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:28UNC Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 5:55UNC Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 5:42UNC Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 3:47UNC Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 2:06UNC Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 10:16LIB Touchdown, down 21 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.1%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.1%
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 1:16UNC Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LIBDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
96.3%
Josh Woodrum pass complete to Darrin Peterson for 6 yds to the Liber 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-1
96.3%
D.J. Abnar run for a loss of 1 yard to the Liber 30Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
96.3%
Josh Woodrum pass incomplete to Darrin PetersonSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+16
96.3%
Trey Turner punt for 47 yds , Ryan Switzer returns for 16 yds to the NCaro 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 2TD
8 plays · 61 yds · 2:1196% → 96%
Q1 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
96.1%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Jack Tabb for 8 yds to the NCaro 47Similar
Q1 13:36
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+4
96.1%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 4 yds to the Liber 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:36
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+10
96.1%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 10 yds to the Liber 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:36
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+14
96.1%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Quinshad Davis for 14 yds to the Liber 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:36
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+11
96.1%
T.J. Logan run for 11 yds to the Liber 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:36
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
96.1%
Ryan Switzer run for 4 yds to the Liber 10Similar
Q1 13:36
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+3
96.1%
T.J. Logan run for 3 yds to the Liber 7Similar
Q1 11:25
3RD & 3
OPP 7
+7
95.9%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Bug Howard for 7 yds for a TD, (Thomas Moore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 3FUMBLE
7 plays · 68 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q1 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
95.9%
D.J. Abnar run for 4 yds to the Liber 29Similar
Q1 11:25
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
95.8%
Josh Woodrum pass incomplete to Darrin Peterson, broken up by Tim ScottSimilar
Q1 11:25
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+9
95.9%
Josh Woodrum pass complete to Gabe Henderson for 9 yds to the Liber 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
95.8%
Josh Woodrum pass complete to Dante Shells for 6 yds to the Liber 44Similar
Q1 11:25
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+5
95.8%
D.J. Abnar run for 5 yds to the Liber 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+39
95.8%
Josh Woodrum pass complete to Darrin Peterson for 39 yds Darrin Peterson fumbled, forced by Tim Scott, recovered by NCaro Dominique GreenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 4INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q1 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
95.6%
Marquise Williams pass intercepted Kenny Scott return for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 5TD
10 plays · 50 yds · 4:115% → 6%
Q1 8:55
1ST & 10
50
+8
95.4%
Josh Woodrum pass complete to Kendall Couamin for 8 yds to the NCaro 42Similar
Q1 8:55
2ND & 2
OPP 42
+2
95.4%
D.J. Abnar run for 2 yds to the NCaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
95.4%
Todd Macon run for 5 yds to the NCaro 35Similar
Q1 7:18
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+2
95.1%
Todd Macon run for 2 yds to the NCaro 33Similar
Q1 7:18
3RD & 3
OPP 33
+4
95.2%
Josh Woodrum pass complete to Gabe Henderson for 4 yds to the NCaro 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:18
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+19
95.1%
Josh Woodrum pass complete to Dexter Herman for 19 yds to the NCaro 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:18
1ST & 0
OPP 10
+5
95.1%
ABNAR, D.J. rush up middle for no gain to the NC10 (Jones, N), PENALTY NC offside (Otis, N) 5 yards to the NC5, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
95.1%
D.J. Abnar run for 4 yds to the NCaro 1Similar
Q1 4:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
93.8%
Todd Macon run for 1 yd for a TD NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined, (Avery Echols KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 6TD
7 plays · 57 yds · 1:2294% → 95%
Q1 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
94.4%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Damien Washington for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 4:44
2ND & 3
50
+29
94.4%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Kendrick Singleton for 14 yds to the UNC 36 for a 1ST down LIBERTY Penalty, personal foul (N/A) to the Liber 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:44
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
94.5%
Romar Morris run for 5 yds to the Liber 16Similar
Q1 4:44
2ND & 5
OPP 16
+12
94.5%
Mitch Trubisky run for 12 yds to the Liber 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
94.5%
Romar Morris run for 3 yds to the Liber 1Similar
Q1 3:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
95.1%
Romar Morris run for 1 yd for a TD, (Thomas Moore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q1 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
94.7%
D.J. Abnar run for 12 yds to the Liber 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
94.6%
Zac Parker run for 1 yd to the Liber 38Similar
Q1 3:22
2ND & 9
OWN 38
0
94.6%
Josh Woodrum pass incomplete to Dexter HermanSimilar
Q1 3:22
3RD & 9
OWN 38
0
94.7%
Josh Woodrum pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 3:22
4TH & 9
OWN 38
0
94.8%
Trey Turner punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Ryan Switzer at the NCaro 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 1:5195% → 94%
Q1 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
94.6%
Khris Francis run for 5 yds to the NCaro 35Similar
Q1 1:51
2ND & 5
OWN 35
0
94.7%
Khris Francis run for no gain to the NCaro 35Similar
Q1 1:51
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+6
94.5%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 6 yds to the NCaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
94.7%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Quinshad DavisSimilar
Q1 1:51
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+4
94.7%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Bug Howard for 4 yds to the NCaro 45Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 45
0
94.4%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Kendrick SingletonSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 45
0
94.2%
Tommy Hibbard punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Zac Parker at the Liber 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
94.1%
Todd Macon run for no gain to the Liber 17Similar
Q2 14:48
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+7
94.2%
Josh Woodrum pass complete to Gabe Henderson for 7 yds to the Liber 24Similar
Q2 14:48
3RD & 3
OWN 24
+12
94.2%
Josh Woodrum run for 12 yds to the Liber 36 for a 1ST down NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
94.0%
Todd Macon run for 1 yd to the Liber 37Similar
Q2 14:48
2ND & 9
OWN 37
0
94.0%
Josh Woodrum pass incomplete to Kendall CouaminSimilar
Q2 14:48
3RD & 9
OWN 37
0
94.2%
Josh Woodrum pass complete to Todd Macon for no gain to the Liber 37Similar
Q2 14:48
4TH & 9
OWN 37
0
94.3%
Trey Turner punt for 38 yds , Ryan Switzer returns for no gain to the NCaro 25 Ryan Switzer fumbled, recovered by NCaro N/ASimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 10MISSED FG
11 plays · 49 yds · 6:4894% → 93%
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
94.2%
Marquise Williams run for 3 yds to the NCaro 28Similar
Q2 14:48
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+8
94.2%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 8 yds to the NCaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
94.3%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 1 yd to the NCaro 37Similar
Q2 14:48
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+20
94.3%
Marquise Williams run for 20 yds to the Liber 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
94.5%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Jack TabbSimilar
Q2 14:48
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+7
94.5%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Jack Tabb for 7 yds to the Liber 36Similar
Q2 14:48
3RD & 3
OPP 36
+3
94.4%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Bug Howard for 3 yds to the Liber 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
94.6%
Elijah Hood run for no gain to the Liber 33Similar
Q2 14:48
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
94.5%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Jack TabbSimilar
Q2 14:48
3RD & 10
OPP 33
+7
94.4%
Marquise Williams run for 7 yds to the Liber 26Similar
Q2 8:00
4TH & 3
OPP 26
+44
93.3%
Thomas Moore 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
93.0%
Josh Woodrum pass incomplete to Gabe HendersonSimilar
Q2 8:00
2ND & 10
OWN 27
0
93.0%
Josh Woodrum pass incomplete to Darrin Peterson LIBERTY Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 8:00
3RD & 10
OWN 27
+18
93.2%
Josh Woodrum pass complete to Gabe Henderson for 18 yds to the Liber 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
92.6%
Josh Woodrum pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 8:00
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+4
92.7%
D.J. Abnar run for 4 yds to the Liber 49Similar
Q2 8:00
3RD & 6
OWN 49
0
92.5%
Josh Woodrum pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 8:00
4TH & 6
OWN 49
+4
93.0%
Trey Turner punt for 40 yds , Ryan Switzer returns for 4 yds to the NCaro 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 12SF
6 plays · -15 yds · 1:2593% → 91%
Q2 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+9
92.9%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 9 yds to the NCaro 24Similar
Q2 6:34
2ND & 1
OWN 24
+6
93.0%
T.J. Logan run for 6 yds to the NCaro 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
93.0%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Ryan Switzer for no gain to the NCaro 30Similar
Q2 6:34
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+3
92.9%
Mitch Trubisky run for 3 yds to the NCaro 33Similar
Q2 6:34
3RD & 7
OWN 33
0
92.8%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Bug HowardSimilar
Q2 5:09
4TH & 7
OWN 33
0
91.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 33 yards for a SAFETY TEAM fumbled, recovered by NCaro for a SAFETY NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, illegal kicking (Tommy Hibbard) to the NCaro 0Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 13TD
11 plays · 73 yds · 3:269% → 19%
Q2 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
91.5%
D.J. Abnar run for 7 yds to the Liber 34Similar
Q2 5:03
2ND & 3
OWN 34
+5
91.0%
D.J. Abnar run for 5 yds to the Liber 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+31
91.1%
Josh Woodrum pass complete to Darrin Peterson for 31 yds to the NCaro 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:03
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
90.2%
Josh Woodrum pass incomplete to Darrin PetersonSimilar
Q2 5:03
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+8
90.2%
Todd Macon run for 8 yds to the NCaro 22Similar
Q2 2:46
3RD & 2
OPP 22
+5
89.4%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, substitution infraction (5 Yards) to the NCaro 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:46
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+14
88.7%
Todd Macon run for 14 yds to the NCaro 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
88.7%
D.J. Abnar run for 2 yds to the NCaro 1Similar
Q2 1:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
81.2%
D.J. Abnar run for 1 yd for a TD, (Josh Woodrum failed ), (Josh Woodrum failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 14TD
10 plays · 66 yds · 1:0485% → 92%
Q2 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+9
85.1%
Romar Morris run for 9 yds to the NCaro 43Similar
Q2 1:32
2ND & 1
OWN 43
0
86.3%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Quinshad DavisSimilar
Q2 1:32
3RD & 1
OWN 43
+10
86.0%
Elijah Hood run for 10 yds to the Liber 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+13
86.7%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Bug Howard for 13 yds to the Liber 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
87.4%
Marquise Williams run for 4 yds to the Liber 30Similar
Q2 0:51
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+23
86.9%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Quinshad Davis for 23 yds to the Liber 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:51
1ST & 0
OPP 7
+4
87.5%
Williams, M sideline pass incomplete to Davis, Q, PENALTY LIBERTY holding (GUILLORY, J.) 4 yards to the LIBERTY3, 1ST DOWN NC, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
91.6%
Marquise Williams run for 3 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
90.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Liber 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 0:0091% → 90%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
90.6%
T.J. Logan run for 3 yds to the NCaro 30Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+8
90.6%
T.J. Logan run for 8 yds to the NCaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-5
91.0%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, false start (Jon Heck) to the NCaro 33Similar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 15
OWN 33
+8
90.5%
T.J. Logan run for 8 yds to the NCaro 41Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 7
OWN 41
0
91.3%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Quinshad DavisSimilar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 7
OWN 41
0
90.7%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Jack TabbSimilar
Q3 14:54
4TH & 7
OWN 41
0
90.0%
Tommy Hibbard punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Zac Parker at the Liber 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0011% → 10%
Q3 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
89.1%
Josh Woodrum pass incomplete to Gabe HendersonSimilar
Q3 13:19
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+9
89.3%
D.J. Abnar run for 9 yds to the Liber 17Similar
Q3 13:19
3RD & 1
OWN 17
0
89.3%
Josh Woodrum run for no gain to the Liber 17Similar
Q3 13:19
4TH & 1
OWN 17
+30
89.7%
Trey Turner punt for 38 yds , Ryan Switzer returns for 30 yds to the Liber 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 18INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q3 11:47
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
90.6%
Marquise Williams pass intercepted, touchback. Gary Sampson return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0012% → 11%
Q3 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
88.3%
D.J. Abnar run for 1 yd to the Liber 21Similar
Q3 11:40
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+7
88.4%
Josh Woodrum pass complete to Dexter Herman for 7 yds to the Liber 28Similar
Q3 11:40
3RD & 2
OWN 28
0
88.3%
Josh Woodrum pass incomplete to Dante ShellsSimilar
Q3 11:40
4TH & 2
OWN 28
0
88.9%
Trey Turner punt for 53 yds, downed at the NCaro 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 20FUMBLE TD
2 plays · 8 yds · 0:3389% → 79%
Q3 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
88.8%
Romar Morris run for 2 yds to the NCaro 21Similar
Q3 9:25
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+27
79.3%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Quinshad Davis for 6 yds for a TD Quinshad Davis fumbled, forced by Nick Sigmon, recovered by Liber Jacob Hagen , return for 27 yds, (Avery Echols KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 0:0080% → 79%
Q3 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+13
79.5%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to T.J. Logan for 13 yds to the NCaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-7
81.3%
Mitch Trubisky sacked by JaRon Greene for a loss of 7 yards to the NCaro 36Similar
Q3 9:17
2ND & 17
OWN 36
0
79.4%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Bug HowardSimilar
Q3 9:17
3RD & 17
OWN 36
+10
78.3%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Bug Howard for 10 yds to the NCaro 46Similar
Q3 9:17
4TH & 7
OWN 46
0
78.8%
Tommy Hibbard punt for 43 yds, downed at the Liber 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0023% → 21%
Q3 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+1
76.9%
D.J. Abnar run for 1 yd to the Liber 12Similar
Q3 7:43
2ND & 9
OWN 12
+1
77.1%
Josh Woodrum pass complete to D.J. Abnar for 1 yd to the Liber 13Similar
Q3 7:43
3RD & 8
OWN 13
0
78.0%
Josh Woodrum pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:43
4TH & 8
OWN 13
+9
78.8%
Trey Turner punt for 36 yds , Ryan Switzer returns for 9 yds to the Liber 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 23TD
2 plays · 40 yds · 0:2380% → 89%
Q3 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+7
79.8%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Mack Hollins for 7 yds to the Liber 33Similar
Q3 5:55
2ND & 3
OPP 33
+33
89.1%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Mack Hollins for 33 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 24INT TD
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q3 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+19
93.8%
Josh Woodrum pass intercepted for a TD Jeff Schoettmer return for 19 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 25FUMBLE
2 plays · 11 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q3 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
93.7%
Todd Macon run for 7 yds to the Liber 36 Todd Macon fumbled, forced by Junior Gnonkonde, recovered by NCaro Kedrick DavisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 26TD
6 plays · 36 yds · 1:4995% → 99%
Q3 5:36
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
95.2%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Ryan SwitzerSimilar
Q3 5:36
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+4
95.1%
T.J. Logan run for 4 yds to the Liber 32Similar
Q3 5:36
3RD & 6
OPP 32
+13
95.0%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Kendrick Singleton for 13 yds to the Liber 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:36
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
95.2%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 5 yds to the Liber 14Similar
Q3 5:36
2ND & 5
OPP 14
-1
95.2%
T.J. Logan run for a loss of 1 yard to the Liber 15Similar
Q3 3:47
3RD & 6
OPP 15
+15
98.5%
Marquise Williams run for 15 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 27FUMBLE
3 plays · 18 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
98.2%
D.J. Abnar run for 3 yds to the Liber 28Similar
Q3 3:47
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+20
98.2%
Josh Woodrum pass complete to Darrin Peterson for 11 yds Darrin Peterson fumbled, forced by Alex Dixon, recovered by NCaro Dominique Green , return for 20 yds to the Liber 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 28TD
4 plays · 23 yds · 0:5299% → 100%
Q3 2:58
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
98.5%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Jack Tabb, broken up by Jimmy O'GradySimilar
Q3 2:58
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+18
98.5%
Elijah Hood run for 18 yds to the Liber 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
98.5%
Elijah Hood run for 1 yd to the Liber 4Similar
Q3 2:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.9%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Jack Tabb for 4 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 29PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 1:100% → 0%
Q3 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.9%
D.J. Abnar run for 1 yd to the Liber 26Similar
Q3 2:06
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+4
99.9%
D.J. Abnar run for 4 yds to the Liber 30Similar
Q3 0:56
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
99.9%
Josh Woodrum pass incomplete to Gabe HendersonSimilar
Q3 0:56
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+12
99.9%
Trey Turner punt for 42 yds , Ryan Switzer returns for 12 yds to the NCaro 42 NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, illegal block (Khris Francis) to the NCaro 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 30PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:36100% → 100%
Q3 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-5
99.9%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NCaro 25Similar
Q3 0:36
1ST & 15
OWN 25
+5
99.9%
Marquise Williams pass complete to T.J. Logan for 5 yds to the NCaro 30Similar
Q3 0:36
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+3
99.9%
T.J. Logan run for 3 yds to the NCaro 33Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 33
-2
99.9%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Austin Proehl for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 31Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 31
0
99.9%
Tommy Hibbard punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Zac Parker at the Liber 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 31PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
99.9%
Josh Woodrum pass complete to Dante Shells for 6 yds to the Liber 40Similar
Q4 14:10
2ND & 4
OWN 40
-4
99.9%
D.J. Abnar run for a loss of 4 yards to the Liber 36Similar
Q4 14:10
3RD & 8
OWN 36
-3
99.9%
Josh Woodrum sacked by Jessie Rogers for a loss of 3 yards to the Liber 33Similar
Q4 14:10
4TH & 11
OWN 33
+45
99.9%
Trey Turner punt for 45 yds , Ryan Switzer returns for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 32INT
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
99.9%
Elijah Hood run for 6 yds to the NCaro 27Similar
Q4 14:10
2ND & 4
OWN 27
-5
99.9%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, false start (Lucas Crowley) to the NCaro 22Similar
Q4 14:10
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+4
99.9%
Mitch Trubisky pass intercepted Alpha Jalloh return for 4 yds to the NCaro 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 33TD
3 plays · 15 yds · 1:130% → 1%
Q4 11:29
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
99.9%
Josh Woodrum run for no gain to the NCaro 15Similar
Q4 11:29
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+14
99.9%
Todd Macon run for 14 yds to the NCaro 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.0%
Todd Macon run for 1 yd for a TD, (Avery Echols KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 34PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
99.3%
Khris Francis run for 5 yds to the NCaro 40Similar
Q4 10:14
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+6
99.3%
Khris Francis run for 6 yds to the NCaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-3
99.3%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Austin Proehl for a loss of 3 yards to the NCaro 43Similar
Q4 10:14
2ND & 13
OWN 43
0
99.3%
Khris Francis run for no gain to the NCaro 43Similar
Q4 10:14
3RD & 13
OWN 43
0
99.3%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q4 10:14
4TH & 13
OWN 43
+12
99.2%
Tommy Hibbard punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Liber 20 , Zac Parker returns for 12 yds to the Liber 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 35INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
99.2%
Josh Woodrum pass intercepted Kedrick Davis return for no gain to the NCaro 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 36PUNT
8 plays · 8 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
99.3%
Elijah Hood run for 5 yds to the NCaro 43Similar
Q4 8:27
2ND & 5
OWN 43
0
99.3%
Elijah Hood run for no gain to the NCaro 43Similar
Q4 8:27
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+6
99.3%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Jordan Fieulleteau for 6 yds to the NCaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-5
99.3%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, false start (Jon Heck) to the NCaro 44Similar
Q4 8:27
1ST & 15
OWN 44
+3
99.3%
Elijah Hood run for 3 yds to the NCaro 47Similar
Q4 8:27
2ND & 12
OWN 47
+6
99.3%
Mitch Trubisky sacked by Chima Uzowihe for a loss of 7 yards to the NCaro 46 Mitch Trubisky fumbled, recovered by NCaro Mitch Trubisky , return for 0 yards , return for 6 yds to the NCaro 46Similar
Q4 8:27
3RD & 13
OWN 46
0
99.3%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 8:27
4TH & 13
OWN 46
0
99.3%
Tommy Hibbard punt for 23 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Liber 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 37FUMBLE
5 plays · 18 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
99.4%
Todd Macon run for 2 yds to the Liber 33Similar
Q4 5:48
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+1
99.4%
Todd Macon run for 1 yd to the Liber 34Similar
Q4 5:48
3RD & 7
OWN 34
+8
99.5%
Josh Woodrum pass complete to Dante Shells for 8 yds to the Liber 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
99.4%
Josh Woodrum pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:48
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+4
99.4%
Todd Macon run for 4 yds to the Liber 49 Todd Macon fumbled, forced by Cayson Collins, recovered by NCaro Dominique GreenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 38TD
11 plays · 49 yds · 2:37100% → 100%
Q4 3:53
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-5
99.5%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, false start (N/A) to the NCaro 46Similar
Q4 3:53
1ST & 15
OWN 46
+4
99.5%
Charles Brunson run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 3:53
2ND & 11
50
+17
99.5%
Charles Brunson run for 17 yds to the Liber 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:53
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+11
99.5%
Charles Brunson run for 11 yds to the Liber 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:53
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+6
99.5%
Charles Brunson run for 6 yds to the Liber 16Similar
Q4 2:46
2ND & 4
OPP 16
+3
99.6%
Charles Brunson run for 3 yds to the Liber 13Similar
Q4 2:46
3RD & 1
OPP 13
+2
99.6%
Charles Brunson run for 2 yds to the Liber 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:46
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
99.6%
Charles Brunson run for 3 yds to the Liber 8Similar
Q4 2:46
2ND & 7
OPP 8
+6
99.6%
Charles Brunson run for 6 yds to the Liber 2Similar
Q4 1:16
3RD & 1
OPP 2
+2
100.0%
Charles Brunson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 39END OF HALF
5 plays · 21 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
100.0%
Joshua Smith run for 3 yds to the Liber 28Similar
Q4 1:16
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+16
100.0%
Stephon Masha run for 16 yds to the Liber 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
100.0%
Joshua Smith run for 1 yd to the Liber 45Similar
Q4 1:16
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+1
100.0%
Joshua Smith run for 1 yd to the Liber 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FUMBLE · Q3 9:25
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Quinshad Davis for 6 yds for a TD Quinshad Davis fumbled, forced by Nick Sigmon, recovered by Liber Jacob Hagen , return for 27 yds, (Avery Echols KICK)
-9.5
TD · Q3 5:55
Marquise Williams pass complete to Mack Hollins for 33 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)
+9.3
TD · Q2 1:37
D.J. Abnar run for 1 yd for a TD, (Josh Woodrum failed ), (Josh Woodrum failed )
-7.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com