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PITT

Pittsburgh 35 at Miami 23

MIA
2014 · Week 14 · Nov 29, 2014 · Hard Rock Stadium
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Win probability · MIA
modelMIA aheadPITT aheadconfidence bandkey playMIA scorePITT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDFGTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 5:34 · Brad Kaaya pass complete to Phillip Dorsett for 20 yds to the Pitt 19 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+43.0+21.50−21.5−43.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 108Pregame prior+9.4Home team on offense−9.1Score differential−5.0Garbage-time factor−3.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:14: James Conner 2 Yd Run (Chris Blewitt Kick) — PITT win probability +7.7 pts (now 44%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 12:32: Duke Johnson 17 Yd pass from Brad Kaaya (Michael Badgley Kick) — MIA win probability +14.1 pts (now 68%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 9:53: Chris James 15 Yd Run (Chris Blewitt Kick) — PITT win probability +16.0 pts (now 59%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 4:17: Michael Badgley 36 Yd Field Goal — MIA win probability +8.0 pts (now 49%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 13:13: Chad Voytik 1 Yd Run (Chris Blewitt Kick) — PITT win probability +14.9 pts (now 80%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MIA made the numbers' call on 6 of 10PITT made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q1 7:50MIA 4th & 5 at PITT 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 71.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.0%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.0%
    70% to make
    Punt
    69.9%−1.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 1:18MIA 4th & 4 at MIA 20, down 11
    Close callPunted · 63.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.6%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:53PITT 4th & 3 at PITT 37, up 11
    Close callPunted · 36.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.5%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 2:15MIA 4th & 7 at PITT 31, down 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 49.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.5%
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.5%−<0.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    47.2%−1.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 1:05PITT 4th & 12 at PITT 20, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.3%−2.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:23MIA 4th & 10 at PITT 45, down 8
    Close callPunted · 49.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.3%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    49.6%
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    49.1%−0.4
    average punt
  7. Q3 5:34MIA 4th & 4 at PITT 39, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 42.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    40.3%−2.7
    36% to make
    Punt
    40.6%−2.5
    average punt
  8. Q3 4:17MIA 4th & 10 at PITT 19, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.3%−2.2
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.5%
    77% to make
    Punt
    25.8%−11.7
    average punt
  9. Q3 2:37PITT 4th & 9 at PITT 48, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.5%−1.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.1%
    average punt
  10. Q3 1:43MIA 4th & 4 at MIA 18, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.3%−0.2
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.5%
    average punt
  11. Q4 13:13PITT 4th & 1 at MIA 1, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 63.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.1%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    55.5%−6.5
    94% to make
    Punt
    39.1%−23.0
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:08MIA 4th & 7 at MIA 14, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.6%−0.7
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.3%
    average punt
  13. Q4 7:19PITT 4th & 2 at MIA 43, up 12
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.1 ptsPunted · 90.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    87.6%−2.8
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    88.4%−2.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:48MIA 4th & 1 at MIA 22, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    8.5%−1.0
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:27MIA 4th & 5 at PITT 5, down 12
    Close callWent for it · 8.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.2%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    9.3%
    92% to make
    Punt
    3.8%−5.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MIA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2PITT made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 12:49PITT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:50PITT Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:01MIA Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:14PITT Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 12:32MIA Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 9:53PITT Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 13:13PITT Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PITTDrive 1TD
5 plays · 60 yds · 1:5124% → 25%
Q1 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
76.2%
Chad Voytik pass complete to Tyler Boyd for 4 yds to the Pitt 44Similar
Q1 14:06
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+3
76.0%
James Conner run for 3 yds to the Pitt 47Similar
Q1 13:19
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+40
75.8%
Chad Voytik pass complete to James Conner for 40 yds to the MiaFl 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:49
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
75.0%
James Conner 13 Yd Run (Chris Blewitt Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 2FG
12 plays · 52 yds · 4:4875% → 74%
Q1 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
75.1%
Duke Johnson run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 28Similar
Q1 12:10
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
74.9%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Phillip DorsettSimilar
Q1 12:05
3RD & 8
OWN 28
+19
74.7%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Malcolm Lewis for 19 yds to the MiaFl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
74.7%
Duke Johnson run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 10:54
2ND & 7
50
+3
74.6%
Duke Johnson run for 3 yds to the Pitt 47Similar
Q1 10:20
3RD & 4
OPP 47
+7
74.2%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Stacy Coley for 7 yds to the Pitt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:54
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+12
74.2%
Gus Edwards run for 12 yds to the Pitt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:26
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
74.1%
Gus Edwards run for 1 yd to the Pitt 27Similar
Q1 8:50
2ND & 9
OPP 27
+6
73.7%
Duke Johnson run for 6 yds to the Pitt 21Similar
Q1 8:09
3RD & 3
OPP 21
-2
73.2%
Duke Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Pitt 23Similar
Q1 7:50
4TH & 5
OPP 23
+40
74.0%
Michael Badgley 40 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 3TD
12 plays · 82 yds · 4:4627% → 32%
Q1 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+19
73.4%
James Conner run for 19 yds to the Pitt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
73.1%
Chad Voytik run for 11 yds to the Pitt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
72.7%
Isaac Bennett run for 6 yds to the MiaFl 46Similar
Q1 5:50
2ND & 4
OPP 46
+6
72.2%
James Conner run for 6 yds to the MiaFl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+14
72.0%
Voytik, Chad pass sacked for loss of 6 yards to the MIAMIFL46 (Carter, Jamal), PENALTY MIAMIFL personal foul (Carter, Jamal) 14 yards to the MIAMIFL26, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN PITTSBURGH. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
71.7%
Chris James run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 23Similar
Q1 4:31
2ND & 7
OPP 23
+12
71.5%
Chad Voytik run for 12 yds to the MiaFl 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
71.2%
James Conner run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 7Similar
Q1 3:15
2ND & 6
OPP 7
-5
70.9%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MiaFl 12Similar
Q1 2:50
2ND & 11
OPP 12
+12
67.6%
Tyler Boyd 12 Yd pass from Chad Voytik (Chris Blewitt Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:2067% → 66%
Q1 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
67.4%
Brad Kaaya pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:30
2ND & 10
OWN 14
0
67.2%
Duke Johnson run for no gain to the MiaFl 14Similar
Q1 1:41
3RD & 10
OWN 14
+6
66.2%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Clive Walford for 6 yds to the MiaFl 20Similar
Q1 1:18
4TH & 4
OWN 20
0
65.8%
Justin Vogel punt for 50 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Pitt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:1733% → 34%
Q1 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-3
66.7%
James Conner run for a loss of 3 yards to the Pitt 27Similar
Q1 0:33
3RD & 13
OWN 27
-5
66.6%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, False Start (Adam Bisnowaty) to the Pitt 22Similar
Q1 0:33
2ND & 13
OWN 27
0
66.4%
Chad Voytik pass incomplete to Kevin WeatherspoonSimilar
Q1 0:11
3RD & 18
OWN 22
+15
66.1%
Chad Voytik pass complete to Isaac Bennett for 15 yds to the Pitt 37Similar
Q2 14:53
4TH & 3
OWN 37
0
65.6%
Ryan Winslow punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Stacy Coley at the MiaFl 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 6TD
5 plays · 79 yds · 1:5265% → 71%
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-5
65.3%
MIAMI FL Penalty, False Start (Ereck Flowers) to the MiaFl 16Similar
Q2 14:25
1ST & 15
OWN 16
+31
64.9%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Clive Walford for 31 yds to the MiaFl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-6
65.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 6 yards to the MiaFl 41 TEAM fumbled, recovered by MiaFl Brad KaayaSimilar
Q2 13:34
2ND & 16
OWN 41
+8
64.2%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Stacy Coley for 8 yds to the MiaFl 49Similar
Q2 13:01
3RD & 8
OWN 49
+51
70.6%
Phillip Dorsett 51 Yd pass from Brad Kaaya (Michael Badgley Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 7TD
13 plays · 70 yds · 5:1831% → 44%
Q2 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
68.9%
Chris James run for 6 yds to the Pitt 36Similar
Q2 12:04
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+4
68.1%
Chris James run for 4 yds to the Pitt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
67.4%
Chris James run for 6 yds to the Pitt 46Similar
Q2 10:50
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+2
67.1%
Chris James run for 2 yds to the Pitt 48Similar
Q2 10:04
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+14
66.9%
Isaac Bennett run for 14 yds to the MiaFl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-1
65.8%
Isaac Bennett run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 39Similar
Q2 8:35
2ND & 11
OPP 39
+13
65.3%
Rachid Ibrahim run for 13 yds to the MiaFl 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:23
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+14
64.8%
James Conner run for 14 yds to the MiaFl 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
63.6%
Chris James run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 9Similar
Q2 7:24
2ND & 7
OPP 9
0
63.2%
Chad Voytik pass incomplete to Tyler BoydSimilar
Q2 7:19
3RD & 7
OPP 9
+7
63.6%
Voytik, Chad pass incomplete to Boyd, Tyler, PENALTY MIAMIFL pass interference (Carter, Jamal) 7 yards to the MIAMIFL2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN PITTSBURGH. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
55.9%
James Conner 2 Yd Run (Chris Blewitt Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 8FG
13 plays · 49 yds · 4:4156% → 55%
Q2 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+23
56.0%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Standish Dobard for 23 yds to the MiaFl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
56.9%
Duke Johnson run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 48Similar
Q2 5:53
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+1
56.8%
Duke Johnson run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 49Similar
Q2 5:07
3RD & 4
OWN 49
+5
55.7%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Clive Walford for 5 yds to the Pitt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:48
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
55.9%
Gus Edwards run for 5 yds to the Pitt 41Similar
Q2 4:12
2ND & 5
OPP 41
0
55.5%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Phillip DorsettSimilar
Q2 4:06
3RD & 5
OPP 41
+7
55.0%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Clive Walford for 7 yds to the Pitt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
56.1%
Duke Johnson run for 4 yds to the Pitt 30Similar
Q2 3:00
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+4
55.7%
Duke Johnson run for 4 yds to the Pitt 26Similar
Q2 2:42
3RD & 2
OPP 26
-5
53.8%
MIAMI FL Penalty, False Start (Ereck Flowers) to the Pitt 31Similar
Q2 2:20
3RD & 7
OPP 31
0
53.2%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Duke JohnsonSimilar
Q2 2:15
4TH & 7
OPP 31
+48
55.3%
Michael Badgley 48 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 0:5547% → 47%
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-2
53.3%
Isaac Bennett run for a loss of 2 yards to the Pitt 20Similar
Q2 1:21
2ND & 12
OWN 20
+2
53.1%
Chad Voytik run for 2 yds to the Pitt 22Similar
Q2 1:13
3RD & 10
OWN 22
-2
53.3%
Rachid Ibrahim run for a loss of 2 yards to the Pitt 20Similar
Q2 1:05
4TH & 12
OWN 20
0
53.2%
Ryan Winslow punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MiaFl 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 0:3452% → 50%
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
51.8%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Duke Johnson for 3 yds to the MiaFl 41Similar
Q2 0:53
2ND & 7
OWN 41
0
52.7%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Braxton BerriosSimilar
Q2 0:45
3RD & 7
OWN 41
+14
50.8%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Malcolm Lewis for 14 yds to the Pitt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
54.0%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Malcolm LewisSimilar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
53.6%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Stacy ColeySimilar
Q2 0:30
3RD & 10
OPP 45
0
51.8%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Duke JohnsonSimilar
Q2 0:23
4TH & 10
OPP 45
0
49.9%
Justin Vogel punt for 22 yds, downed at the Pitt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 11END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0051% → 51%
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-2
49.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Pitt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 12TD
8 plays · 81 yds · 2:1651% → 68%
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+20
50.6%
Duke Johnson run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 24 for a 1ST down PITTSBURGH Penalty, Personal Foul (Khaynin Mosley-Smith) to the MiaFl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:33
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
51.7%
Duke Johnson run for 9 yds to the MiaFl 48Similar
Q3 13:57
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+23
53.2%
Joseph Yearby run for 23 yds to the Pitt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
54.6%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Stacy ColeySimilar
Q3 13:19
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+15
54.3%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the Pitt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:02
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-3
54.1%
Joseph Yearby run for a loss of 3 yards to the Pitt 17Similar
Q3 12:32
2ND & 13
OPP 17
+17
68.1%
Duke Johnson 17 Yd pass from Brad Kaaya (Michael Badgley Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 13TD
6 plays · 43 yds · 2:1541% → 59%
Q3 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
58.9%
James Conner run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 40Similar
Q3 11:36
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+5
58.6%
James Conner run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 35Similar
Q3 10:59
3RD & 2
OPP 35
+3
58.2%
James Conner run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:23
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+17
56.7%
Chad Voytik pass complete to Tyler Boyd for 17 yds to the MiaFl 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:53
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
40.7%
Chris James 15 Yd Run (Chris Blewitt Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 14FG
14 plays · 56 yds · 5:2545% → 49%
Q3 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
45.4%
Duke Johnson run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 29Similar
Q3 9:15
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+12
45.5%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Phillip Dorsett for 12 yds to the MiaFl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
47.0%
Gus Edwards run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 43Similar
Q3 8:11
2ND & 8
OWN 43
0
46.0%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Malcolm LewisSimilar
Q3 8:03
3RD & 8
OWN 43
+12
43.8%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Standish Dobard for 12 yds to the Pitt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
47.4%
Duke Johnson run for 4 yds to the Pitt 41Similar
Q3 6:46
2ND & 6
OPP 41
-4
46.7%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Duke Johnson for a loss of 4 yards to the Pitt 45Similar
Q3 6:09
3RD & 10
OPP 45
+6
43.4%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Stacy Coley for 6 yds to the Pitt 39Similar
Q3 5:34
4TH & 4
OPP 39
+20
42.9%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Phillip Dorsett for 20 yds to the Pitt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
44.0%
Gus Edwards run for no gain to the Pitt 19Similar
Q3 4:26
2ND & 10
OPP 19
0
43.5%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Malcolm LewisSimilar
Q3 4:22
3RD & 10
OPP 19
0
41.2%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Phillip DorsettSimilar
Q3 4:17
4TH & 10
OPP 19
+36
49.2%
Michael Badgley 36 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:1458% → 54%
Q3 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
42.4%
James Conner run for 1 yd to the Pitt 48Similar
Q3 3:24
2ND & 9
OWN 48
0
42.1%
James Conner run for no gain to the Pitt 48Similar
Q3 2:46
3RD & 9
OWN 48
0
43.0%
Chad Voytik pass incomplete to Tyler BoydSimilar
Q3 2:37
4TH & 9
OWN 48
0
45.9%
Ryan Winslow punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Stacy Coley at the MiaFl 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:4947% → 43%
Q3 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
46.5%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Stacy ColeySimilar
Q3 2:12
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+6
46.1%
Duke Johnson run for 6 yds to the MiaFl 18Similar
Q3 1:46
3RD & 4
OWN 18
0
44.3%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Malcolm LewisSimilar
Q3 1:43
4TH & 4
OWN 18
0
43.3%
Justin Vogel punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Tyler Boyd at the Pitt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 17TD
9 plays · 51 yds · 3:1961% → 80%
Q3 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+28
38.6%
Chad Voytik pass complete to Tyler Boyd for 28 yds to the MiaFl 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
36.2%
Chris James run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 20Similar
Q3 0:43
2ND & 7
OPP 20
0
35.8%
Chad Voytik pass incomplete to Tyler BoydSimilar
Q3 0:37
3RD & 7
OPP 20
+14
37.5%
Voytik, Chad pass incomplete, PENALTY MIAMIFL pass interference (Burns, Artie) 14 yards to the MIAMIFL6, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN PITTSBURGH. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
35.4%
James Conner run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 5Similar
Q4 14:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
34.8%
James Conner run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 1Similar
Q4 14:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
36.0%
Conner, James rush for no gain to the MIAMIFL1, PENALTY MIAMIFL offside (Wyche, Michael) 0 yards to the MIAMIFL1, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:41
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
34.8%
James Conner run for no gain to the MiaFl 1Similar
Q4 13:13
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
19.9%
Chad Voytik 1 Yd Run (Chris Blewitt Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:5022% → 20%
Q4 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
22.4%
Duke Johnson run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 14Similar
Q4 12:26
2ND & 7
OWN 14
0
21.2%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Phillip Dorsett MIAMI FL Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 12:21
3RD & 7
OWN 14
0
20.1%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Duke JohnsonSimilar
Q4 12:08
4TH & 7
OWN 14
0
19.9%
Justin Vogel punt for 58 yds, downed at the Pitt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 19PUNT
10 plays · 29 yds · 4:4983% → 90%
Q4 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-5
16.8%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Pitt 23Similar
Q4 11:59
1ST & 15
OWN 23
+4
17.0%
Isaac Bennett run for 4 yds to the Pitt 27Similar
Q4 11:23
2ND & 11
OWN 27
+11
15.5%
Chad Voytik pass complete to Tyler Boyd for 11 yds to the Pitt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
13.1%
Chris James run for 5 yds to the Pitt 43Similar
Q4 10:14
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+6
12.8%
Chris James run for 6 yds to the Pitt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
11.0%
Chris James run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 46 Chris James fumbled, recovered by PittSimilar
Q4 8:38
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+1
10.4%
Isaac Bennett run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 45Similar
Q4 8:11
3RD & 4
OPP 45
-5
10.6%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 7:47
3RD & 9
50
+7
10.5%
Chad Voytik pass complete to Kevin Weatherspoon for 7 yds to the MiaFl 43Similar
Q4 7:19
4TH & 2
OPP 43
0
10.5%
Ryan Winslow punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Stacy Coley at the MiaFl 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 20DOWNS
18 plays · 80 yds · 3:4612% → 8%
Q4 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
11.6%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Phillip DorsettSimilar
Q4 7:04
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+9
11.4%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Phillip Dorsett for 9 yds to the MiaFl 24Similar
Q4 6:23
3RD & 1
OWN 24
+1
10.5%
Gus Edwards run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-12
10.3%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Walter Tucker) to the MiaFl 13Similar
Q4 6:10
1ST & 22
OWN 13
0
10.0%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Stacy ColeySimilar
Q4 6:05
2ND & 22
OWN 13
0
9.8%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Standish DobardSimilar
Q4 5:57
3RD & 10
OWN 13
+9
9.2%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Standish Dobard for 9 yds to the MiaFl 22Similar
Q4 5:48
4TH & 1
OWN 22
+1
9.3%
Brad Kaaya run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+9
9.3%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Braxton Berrios for 9 yds to the MiaFl 32Similar
Q4 5:03
2ND & 1
OWN 32
+28
10.4%
Duke Johnson run for 28 yds to the Pitt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:41
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+21
11.5%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Stacy Coley for 21 yds to the Pitt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:34
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
13.9%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Stacy ColeySimilar
Q4 4:28
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+11
13.6%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Phillip Dorsett for 11 yds to the Pitt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
12.4%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Duke JohnsonSimilar
Q4 4:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
12.3%
Duke Johnson run for 3 yds to the Pitt 5Similar
Q4 3:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
8.4%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Stacy ColeySimilar
Q4 3:27
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
0
7.8%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Phillip DorsettSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 21END OF GAME
9 plays · 36 yds · 2:4195% → 98%
Q4 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+8
4.7%
Isaac Bennett run for 8 yds to the Pitt 13Similar
Q4 2:30
2ND & 2
OWN 13
+1
4.2%
Isaac Bennett run for 1 yd to the Pitt 14Similar
Q4 1:51
3RD & 1
OWN 14
+4
3.3%
Isaac Bennett run for 4 yds to the Pitt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
3.0%
Isaac Bennett run for 2 yds to the Pitt 20Similar
Q4 0:58
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+5
2.8%
Isaac Bennett run for 5 yds to the Pitt 25Similar
Q4 0:50
3RD & 3
OWN 25
+18
2.6%
Isaac Bennett run for 18 yds to the Pitt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-2
2.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Pitt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 9:53
Chris James 15 Yd Run (Chris Blewitt Kick)
-16
TD · Q4 13:13
Chad Voytik 1 Yd Run (Chris Blewitt Kick)
-14.9
TD · Q3 12:32
Duke Johnson 17 Yd pass from Brad Kaaya (Michael Badgley Kick)
+14.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com