Try the model
MIA

Miami 13 at Virginia 30

UVA
2014 · Week 13 · Nov 22, 2014 · Scott Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · UVA
modelUVA aheadMIA aheadconfidence bandkey playUVA scoreMIA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 8:30 · Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Clive Walford, broken up by Anthony Harris
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.0+17.00−17.0−34.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 151Home team on offense+30.5Pregame prior−2.6Score differential+22.3Garbage-time factor+8.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+9.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 3:03: Brad Kaaya pass complete to Phillip Dorsett for 47 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK) — MIA win probability +4.8 pts (now 68%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 11:16: Ian Frye 20 yd FG GOOD — UVA win probability +3.3 pts (now 38%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 3:21: Greyson Lambert pass complete to Canaan Severin for 23 yds for a TD, (Ian Frye KICK) — UVA win probability +10.9 pts (now 49%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  4. FG · Q2 0:00: Ian Frye 17 yd FG GOOD — UVA win probability +4.5 pts (now 56%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 1:37: Darius Jennings run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ian Frye KICK) — UVA win probability +20.4 pts (now 88%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UVA made the numbers' call on 3 of 8MIA made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 15:00UVA 4th & 9 at MIA 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.5%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:57UVA 4th & 6 at MIA 32, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 37.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.0%−<0.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    36.8%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:57MIA 4th & 12 at MIA 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.6%−0.4
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:30UVA 4th & 3 at UVA 34, tied
    Close callPunted · 36.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00UVA 4th & 2 at MIA 8, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.7%
    54% to convert
    Field goal
    33.9%−0.7
    90% to make
    Punt
    29.7%−4.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:16UVA 4th & 3 at MIA 3, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 34.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.2%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.1%−1.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    28.1%−7.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:16MIA 4th & 5 at MIA 38, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.8%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:29MIA 4th & 3 at UVA 17, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 53.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.5%−0.6
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.1%
    80% to make
    Punt
    46.8%−6.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:00UVA 4th & 1 at MIA 1, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 4.0 ptsKicked a field goal · 51.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.8%
    59% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.8%−4.0
    94% to make
    Punt
    41.9%−11.9
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:00MIA 4th & 4 at MIA 29, down 6
    Close callPunted · 42.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.2%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.8%−0.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:30MIA 4th & 1 at UVA 39, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    40.9%−4.6
    36% to make
    Punt
    41.2%−4.4
    average punt
  12. Q4 15:00MIA 4th & 23 at MIA 2, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.3%−3.7
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.0%
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:35UVA 4th & 5 at MIA 5, up 13
    Close callKicked a field goal · 91.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.3%
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.3%−<0.1
    92% to make
    Punt
    82.4%−7.9
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:30MIA 4th & 7 at UVA 7, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.7%
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    1.4%−0.3
    91% to make
    Punt
    0.8%−1.0
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:24UVA 4th & 4 at UVA 25, up 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UVA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3MIA made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 3:03MIA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 3:21UVA Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 1:37UVA Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 8:30UVA Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 1:24MIA Touchdown, down 17 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    1.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    1.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UVADrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 21 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
32.1%
Greyson Lambert run for 2 yds to the Virg 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+4
32.1%
Kevin Parks run for 4 yds to the Virg 36Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+14
32.1%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Canaan Severin for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
50
0
32.1%
Kevin Parks run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
50
+5
32.1%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Keeon Johnson for 5 yds to the MiaFl 45Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+1
32.1%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Khalek Shepherd for 1 yd to the MiaFl 44Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 4
OPP 44
-5
32.1%
VIRGINIA Penalty, substitution infraction (-5 Yards) to the MiaFl 49Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 9
OPP 49
0
32.1%
Alec Vozenilek punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MiaFl 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 2FUMBLE
4 plays · 50 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
Q1 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
33.8%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Phillip DorsettSimilar
Q1 10:50
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+12
33.8%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Stacy Coley for 12 yds to the MiaFl 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+12
33.8%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Malcolm Lewis for 12 yds to the MiaFl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+26
33.7%
Duke Johnson run for 26 yds to the Virg 38 Duke Johnson fumbled, forced by Maurice Canady, recovered by Virg Tim HarrisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 3MISSED FG
8 plays · 30 yds · 2:3235% → 36%
Q1 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
34.7%
Kevin Parks run for 2 yds to the Virg 40Similar
Q1 9:29
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+7
34.8%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Zachary Swanson for 7 yds to the Virg 47Similar
Q1 9:29
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+2
34.9%
Khalek Shepherd run for 2 yds to the Virg 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+15
35.0%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Canaan Severin for 15 yds to the MiaFl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:29
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
35.1%
Khalek Shepherd run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 32Similar
Q1 9:29
2ND & 6
OPP 32
0
35.3%
Greyson Lambert pass incomplete to Darius JenningsSimilar
Q1 9:29
3RD & 6
OPP 32
0
35.1%
Greyson Lambert pass incomplete to Taquan MizzellSimilar
Q1 6:57
4TH & 6
OPP 32
+50
35.7%
Ian Frye 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 4PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:0065% → 64%
Q1 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-18
35.0%
Brad Kaaya sacked by Kwontie Moore for a loss of 18 yards to the MiaFl 14 Brad Kaaya fumbled, recovered by MiaFl , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 6:57
2ND & 28
OWN 14
+8
35.3%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Clive Walford for 8 yds to the MiaFl 22Similar
Q1 6:57
3RD & 20
OWN 22
+8
35.6%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Duke Johnson for 8 yds to the MiaFl 30Similar
Q1 6:57
4TH & 12
OWN 30
0
35.8%
Justin Vogel punt for 43 yds, downed at the Virg 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0036% → 36%
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
36.1%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Khalek Shepherd for 5 yds to the Virg 32Similar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+2
36.4%
Khalek Shepherd run for 2 yds to the Virg 34Similar
Q1 5:30
3RD & 3
OWN 34
0
36.1%
Greyson Lambert pass incomplete to Canaan SeverinSimilar
Q1 5:30
4TH & 3
OWN 34
0
35.6%
Alec Vozenilek punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MiaFl 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 6TD
3 plays · 66 yds · 1:0564% → 68%
Q1 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-1
36.1%
Duke Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 33Similar
Q1 4:08
2ND & 11
OWN 33
+20
36.4%
Duke Johnson run for 20 yds to the Virg 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:03
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+47
31.6%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Phillip Dorsett for 47 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 7FG
14 plays · 64 yds · 6:4733% → 38%
Q1 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+19
33.1%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Andre Levrone for 19 yds to the MiaFl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:03
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+9
34.2%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Darius Jennings for 9 yds to the MiaFl 39Similar
Q1 3:03
2ND & 1
OPP 39
+4
34.2%
Khalek Shepherd run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:03
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+8
34.7%
Taquan Mizzell run for 8 yds to the MiaFl 27Similar
Q1 3:03
2ND & 2
OPP 27
+11
34.7%
Taquan Mizzell run for 11 yds to the MiaFl 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
34.9%
Greyson Lambert pass incomplete to Taquan MizzellSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+5
34.9%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 5 yds to the MiaFl 11Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 11
+3
34.2%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Canaan Severin for 3 yds to the MiaFl 8Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 8
+3
33.5%
Khalek Shepherd run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
34.9%
Khalek Shepherd run for no gain to the MiaFl 5Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
34.9%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Khalek Shepherd for 2 yds to the MiaFl 3Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
34.2%
Greyson Lambert pass incomplete to Zachary Swanson, broken up by Ladarius GunterSimilar
Q2 11:16
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
37.5%
Ian Frye 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 0:0064% → 63%
Q2 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+9
36.2%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Phillip Dorsett for 9 yds to the MiaFl 30Similar
Q2 11:16
2ND & 1
OWN 30
+3
35.5%
Duke Johnson run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
35.8%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Duke Johnson for 4 yds to the MiaFl 37Similar
Q2 11:16
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+4
35.4%
Joseph Yearby run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 41Similar
Q2 11:16
3RD & 2
OWN 41
+1
35.3%
Duke Johnson run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 42Similar
Q2 11:16
4TH & 1
OWN 42
-4
36.2%
MIAMI FL Penalty, false start (Ereck Flowers) to the MiaFl 38Similar
Q2 11:16
4TH & 5
OWN 38
0
36.7%
Justin Vogel punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Khalek Shepherd at the Virg 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 9TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 4:4736% → 49%
Q2 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+23
36.2%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Darius Jennings for 23 yds to the Virg 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
38.3%
Taquan Mizzell run for 6 yds to the MiaFl 46 Taquan Mizzell fumbled, forced by Denzel Perryman, recovered by VirgSimilar
Q2 8:08
2ND & 4
OPP 46
+2
38.8%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Khalek Shepherd for 2 yds to the MiaFl 44Similar
Q2 8:08
3RD & 2
OPP 44
+5
38.4%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Andre Levrone for 5 yds to the MiaFl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:08
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+16
38.7%
Taquan Mizzell run for 16 yds to the MiaFl 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:08
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
39.5%
Darius Jennings run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 19Similar
Q2 8:08
2ND & 6
OPP 19
-10
39.5%
VIRGINIA Penalty, Offensive holding (Ross Burbank) to the MiaFl 29Similar
Q2 8:08
2ND & 16
OPP 29
+6
38.2%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Khalek Shepherd for 6 yds to the MiaFl 23Similar
Q2 3:21
3RD & 10
OPP 23
+23
49.2%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Canaan Severin for 23 yds for a TD, (Ian Frye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 10MISSED FG
12 plays · 58 yds · 2:5254% → 54%
Q2 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
46.5%
Duke Johnson run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 29Similar
Q2 3:21
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+9
45.9%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Clive Walford for 9 yds to the MiaFl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+20
45.2%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Herb Waters for 20 yds to the Virg 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:21
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
43.7%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Malcolm Lewis for 3 yds to the Virg 39Similar
Q2 1:59
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+15
44.3%
VIRGINIA Penalty, roughing passer (Eli Harold) to the Virg 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:59
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-5
43.3%
Brad Kaaya sacked by Max Valles for a loss of 5 yards to the Virg 29 Brad Kaaya fumbled, recovered by MiaFl Jon Feliciano , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 1:59
2ND & 15
OPP 29
+12
44.8%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Clive Walford for 12 yds to the Virg 17Similar
Q2 1:59
3RD & 3
OPP 17
0
44.4%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Herb WatersSimilar
Q2 0:29
4TH & 3
OPP 17
+65
45.8%
Michael Badgley 34 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Daquan Romero return for 15 yds to the MiaFl 3 Maurice Canady return for 65 yds to the MiaFl 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 11FG
7 plays · 82 yds · 0:2953% → 56%
Q2 0:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
52.5%
Khalek Shepherd run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 1Similar
Q2 0:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
53.2%
MIAMI FL Penalty, substitution infraction ( Yards) to the MiaFl 1Similar
Q2 0:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
53.2%
Khalek Shepherd run for no gain to the MiaFl 1Similar
Q2 0:06
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
51.8%
Greyson Lambert pass incomplete to Canaan Severin, broken up by Artie BurnsSimilar
Q2 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+17
56.3%
Ian Frye 17 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 12PUNT
10 plays · 19 yds · 2:0047% → 40%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
53.5%
Duke Johnson run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 13Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 13
+4
53.8%
Joseph Yearby run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 17Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 17
+6
54.5%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Braxton Berrios for 6 yds to the MiaFl 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
53.3%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Duke Johnson, broken up by Anthony HarrisSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 23
0
53.5%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Duke JohnsonSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 23
-11
54.6%
MIAMI FL Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Jon Feliciano) to the MiaFl 12Similar
Q3 13:00
3RD & 21
OWN 12
+17
60.0%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Clive Walford for 17 yds to the MiaFl 29Similar
Q3 13:00
4TH & 4
OWN 29
0
60.1%
Justin Vogel punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Khalek Shepherd at the Virg 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 13INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
Q3 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+13
60.0%
Greyson Lambert pass intercepted Jamal Carter return for no gain to the MiaFl 29 MIAMI FL Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Jamal Carter) to the MiaFl 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 14DOWNS
11 plays · 48 yds · 0:0041% → 43%
Q3 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
59.3%
Duke Johnson run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 16Similar
Q3 12:30
2ND & 7
OWN 16
0
59.2%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Stacy ColeySimilar
Q3 12:30
3RD & 7
OWN 16
+25
60.5%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Duke Johnson for 25 yds to the MiaFl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
57.0%
Duke Johnson run for no gain to the MiaFl 41Similar
Q3 12:30
2ND & 10
OWN 41
-10
57.7%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Offensive holding (Shane McDermott) to the MiaFl 31Similar
Q3 12:30
2ND & 20
OWN 31
+18
59.2%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Clive Walford for 18 yds to the MiaFl 49Similar
Q3 12:30
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+3
55.9%
Duke Johnson run for 3 yds to the Virg 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
55.3%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Phillip Dorsett, broken up by Anthony HarrisSimilar
Q3 12:30
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+4
56.0%
Duke Johnson run for 4 yds to the Virg 44Similar
Q3 12:30
3RD & 6
OPP 44
+5
55.8%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Phillip Dorsett for 5 yds to the Virg 39Similar
Q3 12:30
4TH & 1
OPP 39
0
57.1%
Duke Johnson run for no gain to the Virg 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 15TD
12 plays · 61 yds · 5:4266% → 88%
Q3 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
66.0%
Khalek Shepherd run for 8 yds to the Virg 47Similar
Q3 7:19
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+28
67.3%
Khalek Shepherd run for 28 yds to the MiaFl 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:19
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
68.1%
Khalek Shepherd run for no gain to the MiaFl 25Similar
Q3 5:26
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+13
67.9%
Darius Jennings run for 13 yds to the MiaFl 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:26
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-1
68.0%
Khalek Shepherd run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 13Similar
Q3 5:26
2ND & 11
OPP 13
+7
68.0%
Khalek Shepherd run for 7 yds to the MiaFl 6Similar
Q3 5:26
3RD & 4
OPP 6
+2
66.7%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 2 yds to the MiaFl 4Similar
Q3 5:26
4TH & 2
OPP 4
+2
64.8%
MIAMI FL Penalty, roughing the kicker (Artie Burns) to the MiaFl 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
68.0%
Khalek Shepherd run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 3Similar
Q3 5:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
68.0%
Khalek Shepherd run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 1Similar
Q3 1:37
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
88.3%
Darius Jennings run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ian Frye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 16PUNT
6 plays · -13 yds · 1:3715% → 11%
Q3 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-5
85.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the MiaFl 10Similar
Q3 1:37
2ND & 15
OWN 10
-3
85.5%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Duke Johnson for a loss of 3 yards to the MiaFl 7Similar
Q3 0:07
3RD & 18
OWN 7
-5
89.2%
Brad Kaaya sacked by Max Valles for a loss of 5 yards to the MiaFl 2Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 23
OWN 2
+17
89.4%
Justin Vogel punt for 39 yds , Khalek Shepherd returns for 17 yds to the MiaFl 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 17FG
7 plays · 19 yds · 3:1493% → 95%
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
92.8%
Taquan Mizzell run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 21Similar
Q4 14:49
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+5
92.8%
Darius Jennings run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 16Similar
Q4 14:49
3RD & 2
OPP 16
+6
92.6%
Taquan Mizzell run for 6 yds to the MiaFl 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
92.8%
Taquan Mizzell run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 8Similar
Q4 14:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
92.8%
Taquan Mizzell run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 5Similar
Q4 14:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
92.6%
Greyson Lambert pass incomplete to Andre LevroneSimilar
Q4 11:35
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
95.3%
Ian Frye 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 18INT
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q4 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
93.0%
Duke Johnson run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 23Similar
Q4 11:35
2ND & 6
OWN 23
+6
92.8%
Brad Kaaya pass intercepted Quin Blanding return for 6 yds to the MiaFl 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 19TD
5 plays · 34 yds · 2:2296% → 99%
Q4 10:52
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
96.1%
Khalek Shepherd run for no gain to the MiaFl 34Similar
Q4 10:52
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+9
96.0%
Khalek Shepherd run for 9 yds to the MiaFl 25Similar
Q4 10:52
3RD & 1
OPP 25
+4
96.0%
Khalek Shepherd run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:52
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+17
96.1%
Darius Jennings run for 17 yds to the MiaFl 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.4%
Khalek Shepherd run for 4 yds for a TD, (Ian Frye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 20DOWNS
14 plays · 70 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+10
99.0%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Duke Johnson for 10 yds to the MiaFl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
98.9%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Stacy ColeySimilar
Q4 8:30
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+11
98.9%
Duke Johnson run for 11 yds to the MiaFl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
98.9%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Malcolm LewisSimilar
Q4 8:30
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
98.9%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete, broken up by Eli HaroldSimilar
Q4 8:30
3RD & 10
OWN 44
+32
99.0%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Clive Walford for 32 yds to the Virg 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+7
98.6%
Duke Johnson run for 7 yds to the Virg 17Similar
Q4 8:30
2ND & 3
OPP 17
0
98.6%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Phillip DorsettSimilar
Q4 8:30
3RD & 3
OPP 17
+9
98.7%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Clive Walford for 9 yds to the Virg 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
98.6%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Clive WalfordSimilar
Q4 8:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
98.6%
Joseph Yearby run for 6 yds to the Virg 2Similar
Q4 8:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
98.7%
Brad Kaaya sacked by Max Valles for a loss of 5 yards to the Virg 7Similar
Q4 8:30
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
0
98.8%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Clive Walford, broken up by Anthony HarrisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 21PUNT TD
6 plays · 18 yds · 3:00100% → 99%
Q4 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+12
99.6%
Khalek Shepherd run for 12 yds to the Virg 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
99.6%
Khalek Shepherd run for 1 yd to the Virg 20Similar
Q4 4:24
2ND & 9
OWN 20
+5
99.6%
Khalek Shepherd run for 5 yds to the Virg 25Similar
Q4 4:24
3RD & 4
OWN 25
0
99.6%
Darius Jennings run for no gain to the Virg 25Similar
Q4 1:24
4TH & 4
OWN 25
+13
99.4%
Hugo Delapenha 13 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 22END OF GAME
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:24
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-1
99.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 47Similar
Q4 1:24
2ND & 11
OPP 47
-1
99.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 48Similar
Q4 1:24
3RD & 12
OPP 48
-1
99.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:37
Darius Jennings run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ian Frye KICK)
+20.4
TD · Q2 3:21
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Canaan Severin for 23 yds for a TD, (Ian Frye KICK)
+10.9
TD · Q1 3:03
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Phillip Dorsett for 47 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)
-4.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com