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UNC

North Carolina 20 at Miami 47

MIA
2014 · Week 10 · Nov 1, 2014 · Hard Rock Stadium
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Win probability · MIA
modelMIA aheadUNC aheadconfidence bandkey playMIA scoreUNC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDSAFETYTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 9:20 · Justin Vogel punt for 52 yds , Ryan Switzer returns for a loss of 7 yards to the NCaro 7
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 154Home team on offense+35.5Pregame prior+4.8Score differential+27.1Blowout margin+11.2Garbage-time factor+11.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+12.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 5:43: Duke Johnson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK) — MIA win probability +1.7 pts (now 79%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 5:17: Brad Kaaya pass complete to Clive Walford for 14 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK) — MIA win probability +5.2 pts (now 81%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 2:55: Duke Johnson run for 90 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK) — MIA win probability +7.9 pts (now 89%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:26: Brad Kaaya pass complete to Clive Walford for 14 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK) — MIA win probability +4.0 pts (now 95%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 12:37: Brad Kaaya pass complete to Duke Johnson for 37 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK) — MIA win probability +3.9 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MIA made the numbers' call on 5 of 7UNC made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00UNC 4th & 13 at UNC 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.4%−0.2
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:43MIA 4th & 1 at UNC 1, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 75.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    75.3%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    74.9%−0.5
    94% to make
    Punt
    73.6%−1.7
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:43UNC 4th & 5 at UNC 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.2%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.3%
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00MIA 4th & 7 at MIA 40, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.3%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:37MIA 4th & 3 at MIA 32, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.9%−0.2
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:41UNC 4th & 2 at UNC 24, down 3
    Close callPunted · 24.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.0%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:17UNC 4th & 10 at UNC 41, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.7%−0.7
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.3%
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:37UNC 4th & 22 at MIA 49, down 31
    Close callWent for it · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.9%−0.2
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.0%
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:11MIA 4th & 1 at MIA 34, up 31
    Close callPunted · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.5%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 1:27UNC 4th & 2 at midfield, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.2%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 13:19MIA 4th & 10 at UNC 20, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.8%
    75% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.4
    average punt
  12. Q4 9:20MIA 4th & 1 at MIA 34, up 27
    Close callPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 7:05UNC 4th & 7 at UNC 25, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:54MIA 4th & 13 at UNC 46, up 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    99.9%−0.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:06UNC 4th & 5 at MIA 30, down 27
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    0.3%
    56% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MIA made the numbers' call on 6 of 6UNC made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 5:43MIA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 5:17MIA Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:55MIA Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:26MIA Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 12:37MIA Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 7:12MIA Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 5:11UNC Touchdown, down 32 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 9:20UNC Touchdown, down 28 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.2%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.2%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNCDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
78.8%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 6 yds to the NCaro 33Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 33
+1
78.8%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 1 yd to the NCaro 34Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 34
+11
78.8%
Romar Morris run for 11 yds to the NCaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
78.8%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Mack Hollins for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
50
-8
78.8%
Marquise Williams sacked by Artie Burns for a loss of 8 yards to the NCaro 42Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 42
0
78.8%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Mack HollinsSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 13
OWN 42
0
78.8%
Tommy Hibbard punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Stacy Coley at the MiaFl 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 2TD
15 plays · 84 yds · 7:1078% → 79%
Q1 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
78.3%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Clive Walford for 4 yds to the MiaFl 20Similar
Q1 12:53
2ND & 6
OWN 20
+4
78.3%
Gus Edwards run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 24Similar
Q1 12:53
3RD & 2
OWN 24
+4
78.2%
Duke Johnson run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
78.3%
Duke Johnson run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 31Similar
Q1 12:53
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+5
78.3%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Braxton Berrios, PENALTY NC OFF (Otis, N) 5 yards to the MIAMI36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:53
2ND & 2
OWN 36
+16
78.4%
Gus Edwards run for 16 yds to the NCaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+12
78.5%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Duke Johnson for 12 yds to the NCaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+10
78.5%
Duke Johnson run for 10 yds to the NCaro 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
78.5%
Duke Johnson run for 5 yds to the NCaro 21Similar
Q1 12:53
2ND & 5
OPP 21
+11
78.5%
Joseph Yearby run for 11 yds to the NCaro 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
78.5%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Stacy Coley, broken up by Jeff SchoettmerSimilar
Q1 7:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+7
77.4%
Duke Johnson run for 7 yds to the NCaro 3Similar
Q1 7:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
77.1%
Gus Edwards run for 2 yds to the NCaro 1Similar
Q1 5:43
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
78.8%
Duke Johnson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q1 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
78.6%
T.J. Logan run for 4 yds to the NCaro 29Similar
Q1 5:43
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-5
78.4%
Marquise Williams sacked by Corn Elder for a loss of 5 yards to the NCaro 24Similar
Q1 5:43
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+15
78.9%
MIAMI FL Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the NCaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
78.2%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 4 yds to the NCaro 43Similar
Q1 5:43
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+1
78.0%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 1 yd to the NCaro 44Similar
Q1 5:43
3RD & 5
OWN 44
0
78.1%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Quinshad DavisSimilar
Q1 5:43
4TH & 5
OWN 44
0
78.6%
Tommy Hibbard punt for 54 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MiaFl 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 4PUNT
10 plays · 38 yds · 3:5778% → 78%
Q1 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+9
78.4%
Duke Johnson run for 9 yds to the MiaFl 11Similar
Q1 3:57
2ND & 1
OWN 11
+4
78.5%
Duke Johnson run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
78.6%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Clive WalfordSimilar
Q1 3:57
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+3
78.5%
Duke Johnson run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 18Similar
Q1 3:57
3RD & 7
OWN 18
+8
78.2%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Clive Walford for 8 yds to the MiaFl 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+11
78.7%
Duke Johnson run for 11 yds to the MiaFl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
78.9%
Joseph Yearby run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 40Similar
Q1 3:57
2ND & 7
OWN 40
0
79.2%
Joseph Yearby run for no gain to the MiaFl 40Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 40
0
78.5%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Herb Waters, broken up by Malik Simmons MIAMI FL Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 40
0
77.9%
Justin Vogel punt for 50 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCaro 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 5SF
4 plays · -10 yds · 0:4922% → 20%
Q2 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
78.1%
T.J. Logan run for 3 yds to the NCaro 13Similar
Q2 14:46
2ND & 7
OWN 13
+3
78.3%
T.J. Logan run for 3 yds to the NCaro 16Similar
Q2 14:46
3RD & 4
OWN 16
0
78.5%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Tim Scott, broken up by Antonio CrawfordSimilar
Q2 13:57
4TH & 4
OWN 16
0
80.2%
On a punt, ball is snapped through the endzone by NCaro for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 6FUMBLE TD
3 plays · -14 yds · 0:2079% → 76%
Q2 13:57
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-5
79.4%
MIAMI FL Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the MiaFl 48Similar
Q2 13:37
1ST & 15
OWN 48
+39
75.5%
Brad Kaaya sacked by Mikey Bart for a loss of 9 yards Brad Kaaya fumbled, recovered by NCaro Cayson Collins , return for 0 yards , return for 39 yds, (Nick Weiler PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0075% → 74%
Q2 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
75.0%
Duke Johnson run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 26Similar
Q2 13:37
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+7
74.8%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Phillip Dorsett for 7 yds to the MiaFl 33Similar
Q2 13:37
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-1
75.0%
Duke Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 32Similar
Q2 13:37
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+64
74.3%
Justin Vogel punt for 61 yds, downed at the MIAMIFL 7 NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, illegal block (Mack Hollins) to the NCaro 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 0:0025% → 24%
Q2 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+5
75.0%
Romar Morris run for 5 yds to the NCaro 9Similar
Q2 11:41
2ND & 5
OWN 9
+7
75.1%
Romar Morris run for 7 yds to the NCaro 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
74.7%
Romar Morris run for no gain to the NCaro 16Similar
Q2 11:41
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+4
75.0%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Romar Morris for 4 yds to the NCaro 20Similar
Q2 11:41
3RD & 6
OWN 20
+4
75.3%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 4 yds to the NCaro 24Similar
Q2 11:41
4TH & 2
OWN 24
0
75.7%
Tommy Hibbard punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MiaFl 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 9TD
7 plays · 61 yds · 3:5775% → 81%
Q2 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
74.8%
Duke Johnson run for no gain to the MiaFl 39Similar
Q2 9:14
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+18
74.5%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Standish Dobard for 18 yds to the NCaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:14
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
75.8%
Duke Johnson run for 1 yd to the NCaro 42Similar
Q2 9:14
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+8
75.7%
Duke Johnson run for 8 yds to the NCaro 34Similar
Q2 9:14
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+16
75.5%
Duke Johnson run for 16 yds to the NCaro 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:14
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
76.1%
Joseph Yearby run for 4 yds to the NCaro 14Similar
Q2 5:17
2ND & 6
OPP 14
+14
81.3%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Clive Walford for 14 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 0:0020% → 19%
Q2 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
79.6%
Marquise Williams run for 11 yds to the NCaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
79.0%
Marquise Williams run for no gain to the NCaro 41Similar
Q2 5:17
2ND & 10
OWN 41
-6
79.3%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Marquise Williams for a loss of 6 yards to the NCaro 35Similar
Q2 5:17
3RD & 16
OWN 35
+6
80.8%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Mack Hollins for 6 yds to the NCaro 41Similar
Q2 5:17
4TH & 10
OWN 41
-2
80.8%
Tommy Hibbard punt for 47 yds , Stacy Coley returns for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaFl 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 11TD
1 play · 90 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q2 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+90
88.7%
Duke Johnson run for 90 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 12INT
3 plays · 6 yds · 0:0013% → 14%
Q2 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
86.7%
Marquise Williams run for 6 yds to the NCaro 46Similar
Q2 2:55
2ND & 4
OWN 46
0
86.0%
Marquise Williams pass intercepted Deon Bush return for no gain to the MiaFl 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 13TD
8 plays · 56 yds · 1:5189% → 95%
Q2 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
89.4%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Phillip DorsettSimilar
Q2 2:17
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+3
89.3%
Joseph Yearby run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 47Similar
Q2 2:17
3RD & 7
OWN 47
+10
88.8%
Joseph Yearby run for 10 yds to the NCaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:17
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+26
89.4%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Joseph Yearby for 26 yds to the NCaro 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:17
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
89.4%
Brad Kaaya run for 3 yds to the NCaro 14Similar
Q2 0:36
2ND & 7
OPP 14
0
91.1%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Phillip Dorsett, broken up by Tim ScottSimilar
Q2 0:26
3RD & 7
OPP 14
+14
95.1%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Clive Walford for 14 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 14END OF HALF
4 plays · 11 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
93.1%
Marquise Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:26
2ND & 10
OWN 29
0
93.3%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Ryan Switzer, broken up by Ladarius GunterSimilar
Q2 0:26
3RD & 10
OWN 29
+11
93.4%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 11 yds to the NCaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 15TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:2395% → 99%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
94.9%
Duke Johnson run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+42
94.9%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Clive Walford for 42 yds to the NCaro 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-9
95.2%
Brad Kaaya sacked by Norkeithus Otis for a loss of 9 yards to the NCaro 39Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 19
OPP 39
+2
95.1%
Duke Johnson run for 2 yds to the NCaro 37Similar
Q3 12:37
3RD & 17
OPP 37
+37
99.1%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Duke Johnson for 37 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 16FUMBLE
13 plays · -23 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
99.0%
Ryan Switzer run for 6 yds to the NCaro 41Similar
Q3 12:37
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+8
99.0%
Marquise Williams pass complete to T.J. Thorpe for 8 yds to the NCaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-5
99.0%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, false start (Landon Turner) to the NCaro 44Similar
Q3 12:37
1ST & 15
OWN 44
-7
99.1%
Marquise Williams sacked by Denzel Perryman for a loss of 7 yards to the NCaro 37Similar
Q3 12:37
2ND & 22
OWN 37
+18
99.1%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Bug Howard for 18 yds to the MiaFl 45Similar
Q3 12:37
3RD & 4
OPP 45
+3
99.0%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 3 yds to the MiaFl 42Similar
Q3 12:37
4TH & 1
OPP 42
+5
98.9%
MIAMI FL Penalty, (5 Yards) to the MiaFl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
99.0%
Marquise Williams run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 36Similar
Q3 12:37
2ND & 9
OPP 36
-5
99.0%
Williams, M pass complete to Tabb, J for 4 yards to the MIAMI32 (N. Fentress;Raphael Kirby), PENALTY NC illegal formation 5 yards to the MIAMI41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:37
2ND & 14
OPP 41
0
99.0%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Mack HollinsSimilar
Q3 12:37
3RD & 14
OPP 41
-8
99.1%
Marquise Williams sacked by Tyriq McCord for a loss of 8 yards to the MiaFl 49Similar
Q3 12:37
4TH & 22
OPP 49
0
99.1%
TEAM run for no gain to the NCaro 12 TEAM fumbled, recovered by MiaFl Tyriq McCordSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 17TD
3 plays · 12 yds · 1:19100% → 100%
Q3 8:31
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+7
99.5%
Joseph Yearby run for 7 yds to the NCaro 5Similar
Q3 8:31
2ND & 3
OPP 5
+4
99.4%
Joseph Yearby run for 4 yds to the NCaro 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.6%
Joseph Yearby run for 1 yd for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 18TD
7 plays · 65 yds · 2:011% → 1%
Q3 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
99.5%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Austin Proehl for 7 yds to the NCaro 42Similar
Q3 7:12
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+21
99.5%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Bug Howard for 21 yds to the MiaFl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:12
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
99.5%
Romar Morris run for no gain to the MiaFl 37Similar
Q3 7:12
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+19
99.5%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Bug Howard for 19 yds to the MiaFl 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:12
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+8
99.5%
T.J. Logan run for 8 yds to the MiaFl 10Similar
Q3 5:11
2ND & 2
OPP 10
+10
99.1%
Marquise Williams run for 10 yds for a TD, (Thomas Moore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
99.6%
Joseph Yearby run for 7 yds to the MiaFl 32Similar
Q3 5:11
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
99.6%
Joseph Yearby run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 34Similar
Q3 5:11
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
99.6%
Joseph Yearby run for no gain to the MiaFl 34Similar
Q3 5:11
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+31
99.6%
Justin Vogel punt for 45 yds , Ryan Switzer returns for 31 yds to the MIAMIFL 35 NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive holding (Donnie Miles) to the NCaro 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 20DOWNS
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:340% → 0%
Q3 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-3
99.7%
Marquise Williams sacked by Deon Bush for a loss of 3 yards to the NCaro 36 Marquise Williams fumbled, recovered by NCaro T.J. Logan , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 3:01
2ND & 16
OWN 36
+8
99.7%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 8 yds to the NCaro 44Similar
Q3 3:01
3RD & 8
OWN 44
+6
99.7%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 1:27
4TH & 2
50
0
99.7%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Romar Morris, broken up by Denzel PerrymanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 21FG
8 plays · 30 yds · 3:01100% → 100%
Q3 1:20
1ST & 10
50
+7
99.7%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Clive Walford for 7 yds to the NCaro 43Similar
Q3 1:20
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+13
99.7%
Joseph Yearby run for 13 yds to the NCaro 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+10
99.7%
Stacy Coley run for 10 yds to the NCaro 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
99.7%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Phillip DorsettSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+1
99.7%
Joseph Yearby run for 1 yd to the NCaro 19Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 19
+4
99.7%
Joseph Yearby run for 4 yds to the NCaro 15Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 5
OPP 15
-5
99.7%
MIAMI FL Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NCaro 20Similar
Q4 13:19
4TH & 10
OPP 20
+37
99.8%
Michael Badgley 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 22TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 3:590% → 0%
Q4 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.8%
Marquise Williams run for no gain to the NCaro 25Similar
Q4 13:19
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.8%
Marquise Williams pass complete to T.J. Thorpe for 5 yds to the NCaro 30Similar
Q4 13:19
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+43
99.8%
Marquise Williams pass complete to T.J. Thorpe for 43 yds to the MiaFl 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:19
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+10
99.8%
Marquise Williams pass complete to T.J. Thorpe for 10 yds to the MiaFl 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:19
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
99.8%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Austin ProehlSimilar
Q4 13:19
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+3
99.8%
Khris Francis run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 14Similar
Q4 13:19
3RD & 7
OPP 14
+13
99.8%
Marquise Williams run for 13 yds to the MiaFl 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
99.6%
T.J. Logan run for no gain to the MiaFl 1Similar
Q4 13:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
99.7%
T.J. Logan run for no gain to the MiaFl 1Similar
Q4 9:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
99.9%
Williams, M sacked for loss of 7 yards to the MIAMI8 (C. Heurtelou), PENALTY MIAMI face mask (C. Heurtelou) 0 yards to the MIAMI1, 1ST DOWN NC, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
99.8%
T.J. Logan run for no gain to the MiaFl 1Similar
Q4 9:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.8%
Marquise Williams run for 1 yd for a TD, (Thomas Moore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.9%
Joseph Yearby run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 30Similar
Q4 9:20
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
99.9%
Joseph Yearby run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 33Similar
Q4 9:20
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
99.9%
Joseph Yearby run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 34Similar
Q4 9:20
4TH & 1
OWN 34
-7
99.9%
Justin Vogel punt for 52 yds , Ryan Switzer returns for a loss of 7 yards to the NCaro 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 18 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+15
99.9%
MIAMI FL Penalty, personal foul (Deon Bush) to the NCaro 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-4
99.9%
Marquise Williams sacked by Michael Wyche and Ufomba Kamalu for a loss of 4 yards to the NCaro 18Similar
Q4 7:05
2ND & 14
OWN 18
0
99.9%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Mack HollinsSimilar
Q4 7:05
3RD & 14
OWN 18
+7
99.9%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Khris Francis for 7 yds to the NCaro 25Similar
Q4 7:05
4TH & 7
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Tommy Hibbard punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Stacy Coley at the MiaFl 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 25PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+13
99.9%
Joseph Yearby run for 13 yds to the MiaFl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+10
99.9%
Jake Heaps pass complete to Jake O'Donnell for 10 yds to the NCaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:54
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-3
99.9%
Walter Tucker run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCaro 46Similar
Q4 5:54
2ND & 13
OPP 46
0
99.9%
Joseph Yearby run for no gain to the NCaro 46Similar
Q4 5:54
3RD & 13
OPP 46
0
99.9%
Jake Heaps pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:54
4TH & 13
OPP 46
0
99.9%
Justin Vogel punt for 44 yds, downed at the NCaro 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 26DOWNS
8 plays · 68 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+2
100.0%
T.J. Logan run for 2 yds to the NCaro 4Similar
Q4 3:06
2ND & 8
OWN 4
0
100.0%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Austin ProehlSimilar
Q4 3:06
3RD & 8
OWN 4
+27
100.0%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Damien Washington for 27 yds to the NCaro 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+34
100.0%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Kendrick Singleton for 34 yds to the MiaFl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:06
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
99.9%
Mitch Trubisky run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 30Similar
Q4 3:06
2ND & 5
OPP 30
0
99.9%
Mitch Trubisky pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:06
3RD & 5
OPP 30
0
99.9%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Ryan Switzer, broken up by Antonio CrawfordSimilar
Q4 3:06
4TH & 5
OPP 30
0
99.9%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Khris Francis, broken up by Jermaine GraceSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 27END OF GAME
2 plays · 12 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
100.0%
Joseph Yearby run for 7 yds to the MiaFl 37Similar
Q4 1:27
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+5
100.0%
Joseph Yearby run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 2:55
Duke Johnson run for 90 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)
+7.9
TD · Q2 5:17
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Clive Walford for 14 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)
+5.2
TD · Q2 0:26
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Clive Walford for 14 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)
+4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com