Try the model
MIA

Miami 30 at Virginia Tech 6

VT
2014 · Week 9 · Oct 23, 2014 · Lane Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · VT
modelVT aheadMIA aheadconfidence bandkey playVT scoreMIA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 6:52 · Justin Vogel punt for 37 yds, downed at the VTech 1
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingPregame prior
+56.5+28.30−28.3−56.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 57Home team on offense−7.4Score differential−4.1Garbage-time factor−1.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.8Pregame prior+2.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:11: Gus Edwards run for 3 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK) — MIA win probability +4.8 pts (now 53%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q2 6:12: Marshawn Williams run for a loss of 4 yards to the VTech 21 — MIA win probability +8.5 pts (now 65%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q2 1:54: Gus Edwards run for 2 yds to the VTech 32 — MIA win probability +6.8 pts (now 76%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:03: Brad Kaaya pass complete to Duke Johnson for 22 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK) — MIA win probability +10.5 pts (now 87%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:14: Gus Edwards run for 38 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley BLOCKED) — MIA win probability +0.7 pts (now 100%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
VT made the numbers' call on 7 of 8MIA made the numbers' call on 3 of 8
  1. Q1 12:39MIA 4th & 2 at MIA 36, tied
    Close callPunted · 42.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:32VT 4th & 2 at VT 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.8%−<0.1
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:30MIA 4th & 10 at VT 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 43.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.9%−0.2
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.1%
    87% to make
    Punt
    41.7%−1.4
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:28VT 4th & 17 at VT 33, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.7%−0.8
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:18VT 4th & 11 at VT 39, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.4%−0.7
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:52MIA 4th & 6 at VT 38, up 10
    Close callPunted · 57.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    56.4%−0.5
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    56.4%−0.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:26VT 4th & 10 at VT 1, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.6%−1.6
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:18VT 4th & 21 at VT 14, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.4%−2.9
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.3%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:21MIA 4th & 1 at VT 25, up 17
    Close callWent for it · 74.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.8%−0.5
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    74.3%
    66% to make
    Punt
    68.9%−5.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:51MIA 4th & 9 at MIA 3, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.5%−1.6
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:27MIA 4th & 2 at MIA 47, up 24
    Close callPunted · 91.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.3%−0.6
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:51MIA 4th & 2 at VT 2, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    95.7%−0.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    94.0%−2.0
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:44VT 4th & 2 at VT 18, down 24
    Close callPunted · 3.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.3%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:02MIA 4th & 5 at VT 34, up 24
    Close callPunted · 97.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.5%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    97.3%−0.1
    47% to make
    PuntTheir call
    97.2%−0.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:06VT 4th & 7 at VT 23, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.7%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.8%
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:30VT 4th & 10 at MIA 14, down 30
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−<0.1
    84% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MIA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q2 14:11MIA Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 6:21MIA Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:03MIA Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MIADrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:5446% → 45%
Q1 14:33
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
54.5%
Duke Johnson run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 31Similar
Q1 13:56
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+2
54.5%
Duke Johnson run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 33Similar
Q1 13:24
3RD & 5
OWN 33
+3
54.6%
Duke Johnson run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 36Similar
Q1 12:39
4TH & 2
OWN 36
+2
54.7%
Justin Vogel punt for 43 yds , Greg Stroman returns for 2 yds to the VTech 38 VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Illegal Block (Bucky Hodges) to the VTech 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:4155% → 55%
Q1 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
54.7%
Marshawn Williams run for 3 yds to the VTech 16Similar
Q1 11:35
2ND & 7
OWN 16
+6
54.8%
Marshawn Williams run for 6 yds to the VTech 22Similar
Q1 11:17
3RD & 1
OWN 22
-1
54.7%
Marshawn Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 21Similar
Q1 10:32
4TH & 2
OWN 21
0
54.5%
A.J. Hughes punt for 41 yds , Stacy Coley returns for no gain to the MiaFl 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 3FG
9 plays · 51 yds · 3:3045% → 46%
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+15
54.6%
Duke Johnson run for 15 yds to the VTech 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:47
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
54.3%
Duke Johnson run for 6 yds to the VTech 41Similar
Q1 9:05
2ND & 4
OPP 41
+3
54.2%
Duke Johnson run for 3 yds to the VTech 38Similar
Q1 8:28
3RD & 1
OPP 38
+2
54.2%
Duke Johnson run for 2 yds to the VTech 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:53
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+25
54.2%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Gus Edwards for 25 yds to the VTech 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
53.8%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Braxton BerriosSimilar
Q1 7:16
2ND & 10
OPP 11
0
53.7%
Duke Johnson run for no gain to the VTech 11Similar
Q1 6:34
3RD & 10
OPP 11
0
54.2%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Malcolm LewisSimilar
Q1 6:30
4TH & 10
OPP 11
+28
54.1%
Michael Badgley 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 1:4354% → 53%
Q1 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+9
54.2%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 9 yds to the VTech 38Similar
Q1 6:06
2ND & 1
OWN 38
+2
54.8%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Ryan Malleck for 2 yds to the VTech 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
54.6%
Marshawn Williams run for 2 yds to the VTech 42Similar
Q1 5:08
2ND & 8
OWN 42
0
54.7%
Michael Brewer pass incomplete to Bucky HodgesSimilar
Q1 4:35
3RD & 8
OWN 42
-9
53.9%
Michael Brewer sacked by Jermaine Grace for a loss of 9 yards to the VTech 33Similar
Q1 4:28
4TH & 17
OWN 33
0
53.0%
A.J. Hughes punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Stacy Coley at the MiaFl 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 5TD
15 plays · 79 yds · 4:5446% → 53%
Q1 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
54.1%
Stacy Coley run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 23Similar
Q1 3:30
2ND & 8
OWN 23
0
54.1%
Brad Kaaya run for no gain to the MiaFl 23Similar
Q1 3:00
3RD & 8
OWN 23
+15
54.7%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Duke Johnson for 15 yds to the MiaFl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
53.3%
Duke Johnson run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 41Similar
Q1 2:06
2ND & 7
OWN 41
0
53.0%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Duke JohnsonSimilar
Q1 2:06
3RD & 7
OWN 41
+15
53.5%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Personal Foul (Dadi Nicolas) to the VTech 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+29
52.8%
Duke Johnson run for 29 yds to the VTech 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
52.3%
Gus Edwards run for 5 yds to the VTech 10Similar
Q1 0:46
2ND & 5
OPP 10
+2
52.2%
Gus Edwards run for 2 yds to the VTech 8Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 3
OPP 8
+4
52.2%
Duke Johnson run for 4 yds to the VTech 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
51.8%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Phillip DorsettSimilar
Q2 14:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
51.8%
Duke Johnson run for 1 yd to the VTech 3Similar
Q2 14:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
47.0%
Gus Edwards run for 3 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 25 yds · 3:3047% → 45%
Q2 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+3
47.1%
Jerome Wright run for 3 yds to the VTech 17Similar
Q2 13:09
2ND & 7
OWN 17
0
46.9%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Deon Newsome for no gain to the VTech 17Similar
Q2 12:33
3RD & 7
OWN 17
+23
45.8%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Sam Rogers for 23 yds to the VTech 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-10
47.0%
Brewer, Michael pass complete to Hodges, Bucky for 8 yards to the VATECH48, PENALTY VATECH holding (Stanford, Joshua) 10 yards to the VATECH30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:49
1ST & 20
OWN 30
+6
46.0%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Bucky Hodges for 6 yds to the VTech 36Similar
Q2 11:01
2ND & 14
OWN 36
+3
45.7%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Willie Byrn for 3 yds to the VTech 39Similar
Q2 10:29
3RD & 11
OWN 39
0
45.2%
Michael Brewer pass incomplete, broken up by Anthony ChickilloSimilar
Q2 10:18
4TH & 11
OWN 39
0
44.7%
A.J. Hughes punt for 42 yds, downed at the MiaFl 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 43 yds · 3:1354% → 58%
Q2 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
46.2%
Duke Johnson run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 20Similar
Q2 9:39
2ND & 9
OWN 20
0
46.2%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Duke JohnsonSimilar
Q2 9:32
3RD & 9
OWN 20
+13
46.7%
Duke Johnson run for 13 yds to the MiaFl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+25
45.3%
Duke Johnson run for 25 yds to the VTech 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:18
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
43.5%
Gus Edwards run for 2 yds to the VTech 40Similar
Q2 7:46
2ND & 8
OPP 40
0
41.4%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Phillip DorsettSimilar
Q2 7:22
3RD & 8
OPP 40
+2
41.2%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Malcolm Lewis for 2 yds to the VTech 38Similar
Q2 6:52
4TH & 6
OPP 38
0
41.8%
Justin Vogel punt for 37 yds, downed at the VTech 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2143% → 41%
Q2 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
42.5%
Michael Brewer pass incomplete to Sam RogersSimilar
Q2 6:40
2ND & 10
OWN 1
0
42.5%
Michael Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:35
3RD & 10
OWN 1
0
41.8%
Michael Brewer pass incomplete to Isaiah FordSimilar
Q2 6:26
4TH & 10
OWN 1
0
41.3%
A.J. Hughes punt for 23 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the VTech 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 9TD
1 play · 24 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q2 6:21
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
41.3%
Duke Johnson run for 24 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · -11 yds · 1:5435% → 32%
Q2 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
34.7%
Marshawn Williams run for a loss of 4 yards to the VTech 21Similar
Q2 5:16
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+6
33.6%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Ryan Malleck for 6 yds to the VTech 27Similar
Q2 4:36
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-13
32.6%
Michael Brewer sacked by Anthony Chickillo for a loss of 13 yards to the VTech 14Similar
Q2 4:18
4TH & 21
OWN 14
-2
32.3%
A.J. Hughes punt for 49 yds , Stacy Coley returns for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaFl 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 11TD
9 plays · 65 yds · 4:0465% → 87%
Q2 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
35.5%
Duke Johnson run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 38Similar
Q2 3:25
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+6
34.2%
Duke Johnson run for 6 yds to the MiaFl 44Similar
Q2 2:53
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+5
32.8%
Duke Johnson run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+17
31.0%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Phillip Dorsett for 17 yds to the VTech 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
24.2%
Gus Edwards run for 2 yds to the VTech 32Similar
Q2 1:19
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+7
22.1%
Gus Edwards run for 7 yds to the VTech 25Similar
Q2 0:21
4TH & 1
OPP 25
+3
23.8%
Gus Edwards run for 3 yds to the VTech 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
13.3%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Duke Johnson for 22 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 13FUMBLE
10 plays · 40 yds · 2:4220% → 15%
Q3 14:38
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
20.1%
Marshawn Williams run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 38Similar
Q3 14:11
2ND & 6
OPP 38
+11
20.0%
Marshawn Williams run for 11 yds to the MiaFl 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:09
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
20.9%
Marshawn Williams run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 22Similar
Q3 14:00
2ND & 5
OPP 22
+4
20.7%
Marshawn Williams run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 18Similar
Q3 13:45
3RD & 1
OPP 18
+5
20.1%
Marshawn Williams run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
20.6%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Cam Phillips for 5 yds to the MiaFl 8Similar
Q3 13:20
2ND & 5
OPP 8
+5
20.4%
Sam Rogers run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
20.8%
Sam Rogers run for no gain to the MiaFl 3Similar
Q3 11:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
15.0%
Marshawn Williams run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 2 Marshawn Williams fumbled, forced by Deon Bush, recovered by MiaFl Deon BushSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:0089% → 89%
Q3 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
11.0%
Brad Kaaya pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:45
2ND & 10
OWN 2
+1
11.0%
Duke Johnson run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 3Similar
Q3 11:03
3RD & 9
OWN 3
0
10.8%
Brad Kaaya pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:51
4TH & 9
OWN 3
+3
10.7%
Justin Vogel punt for 45 yds , Greg Stroman returns for 3 yds to the MiaFl 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 15FUMBLE
1 play · 13 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q3 10:37
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
12.2%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Joel Caleb for 13 yds Joel Caleb fumbled, forced by Tracy Howard, recovered by MiaFl Jermaine Grace , return for 7 yds to the MiaFl 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:0590% → 92%
Q3 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
9.6%
Duke Johnson run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 42Similar
Q3 10:25
2ND & 7
OWN 42
0
9.6%
Brad Kaaya pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:15
3RD & 7
OWN 42
+5
9.5%
Duke Johnson run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 47Similar
Q3 9:27
4TH & 2
OWN 47
0
8.3%
Justin Vogel punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the VTech 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 17FUMBLE
9 plays · 72 yds · 3:069% → 8%
Q3 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+41
9.0%
Marshawn Williams run for 41 yds to the MiaFl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
9.8%
Marshawn Williams run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 45Similar
Q3 9:10
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+8
9.8%
Michael Brewer run for 8 yds to the MiaFl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:35
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+7
9.6%
Marshawn Williams run for 7 yds to the MiaFl 30Similar
Q3 8:30
2ND & 3
OPP 30
+2
10.2%
Marshawn Williams run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 28Similar
Q3 8:25
3RD & 1
OPP 28
+2
9.9%
Marshawn Williams run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
10.1%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Bucky Hodges for 3 yds to the MiaFl 23Similar
Q3 8:15
2ND & 7
OPP 23
+5
10.0%
Jerome Wright run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 18Similar
Q3 6:14
3RD & 2
OPP 18
+1
8.1%
Jerome Wright run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 17 Jerome Wright fumbled, forced by Denzel Perryman, recovered by MiaFl Jermaine GraceSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 18DOWNS
10 plays · 80 yds · 5:1995% → 96%
Q3 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+11
5.4%
Duke Johnson run for 11 yds to the MiaFl 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+13
5.4%
Duke Johnson run for 13 yds to the MiaFl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
5.2%
Gus Edwards run for 8 yds to the MiaFl 49Similar
Q3 5:55
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+11
4.9%
Gus Edwards run for 11 yds to the VTech 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
5.0%
Gus Edwards run for 3 yds to the VTech 37Similar
Q3 5:30
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+29
4.8%
Duke Johnson run for 29 yds to the VTech 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
4.6%
Gus Edwards run for 4 yds to the VTech 4Similar
Q3 5:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
4.6%
Gus Edwards run for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 5Similar
Q3 5:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
4.6%
Gus Edwards run for 3 yds to the VTech 2Similar
Q3 0:51
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
3.6%
Gus Edwards run for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 2:014% → 3%
Q3 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+1
4.3%
Marshawn Williams run for 1 yd to the VTech 4Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 9
OWN 4
+3
3.8%
Marshawn Williams run for 3 yds to the VTech 7Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 6
OWN 7
+3
3.8%
Brewer, Michael pass incomplete, PENALTY MIAMIFL pass interference 3 yards to the VATECH10, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN VATECH. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
3.9%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Bucky Hodges for 5 yds to the VTech 15Similar
Q4 14:45
2ND & 5
OWN 15
+3
3.9%
Marshawn Williams run for 3 yds to the VTech 18Similar
Q4 13:56
3RD & 2
OWN 18
0
3.3%
Michael Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:44
4TH & 2
OWN 18
0
3.2%
A.J. Hughes punt for 50 yds, downed at the MiaFl 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 34 yds · 2:3397% → 98%
Q4 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+29
2.8%
Duke Johnson run for 29 yds to the VTech 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
2.6%
Gus Edwards run for 5 yds to the VTech 34Similar
Q4 13:25
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+2
2.5%
Gus Edwards run for 2 yds to the VTech 32Similar
Q4 13:20
3RD & 3
OPP 32
-2
2.6%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Phillip Dorsett for a loss of 2 yards to the VTech 34Similar
Q4 11:02
4TH & 5
OPP 34
0
2.2%
Justin Vogel punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the VTech 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 2:543% → 2%
Q4 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+6
2.5%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Cam Phillips for 6 yds to the VTech 12Similar
Q4 10:30
2ND & 4
OWN 12
-2
2.4%
Marshawn Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the VTech 10Similar
Q4 10:00
3RD & 6
OWN 10
+10
2.3%
Brewer, Michael pass incomplete to Malleck, Ryan, PENALTY MIAMIFL holding 10 yards to the VATECH20, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN VATECH. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
2.3%
Michael Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:35
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+4
2.2%
Marshawn Williams run for 4 yds to the VTech 24Similar
Q4 8:35
3RD & 6
OWN 24
-1
2.1%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Marshawn Williams for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 23Similar
Q4 8:06
4TH & 7
OWN 23
+10
1.9%
A.J. Hughes punt for 57 yds , Stacy Coley returns for 10 yds to the MiaFl 33 MIAMI FL Penalty, Illegal Block (NA) to the MiaFl 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 22TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 3:4199% → 100%
Q4 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
1.4%
Duke Johnson run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 22Similar
Q4 7:45
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+13
1.4%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Stacy Coley for 13 yds to the MiaFl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
1.1%
Duke Johnson run for 6 yds to the MiaFl 41Similar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+2
1.0%
Duke Johnson run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 43Similar
Q4 5:43
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+11
1.0%
Gus Edwards run for 11 yds to the VTech 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:02
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
0.9%
Gus Edwards run for 8 yds to the VTech 38Similar
Q4 4:14
2ND & 2
OPP 38
+38
0.2%
Gus Edwards run for 38 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 23TD
14 plays · 77 yds · 2:310% → 1%
Q4 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+13
0.2%
Sam Rogers run for 13 yds to the VTech 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
0.2%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, False Start (NA) to the VTech 31Similar
Q4 3:13
1ST & 15
OWN 31
+11
0.1%
Mark Leal pass complete to Cam Phillips for 11 yds to the VTech 42Similar
Q4 3:00
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+10
0.1%
Mark Leal pass complete to Sam Rogers for 10 yds to the MiaFl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+13
0.1%
Mark Leal pass complete to Bucky Hodges for 13 yds to the MiaFl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:24
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
0.1%
Mark Leal run for 7 yds to the MiaFl 28Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 3
OPP 28
+14
0.1%
Mark Leal pass complete to Sam Rogers for 14 yds to the MiaFl 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
0.1%
Mark Leal pass incomplete to Ryan MalleckSimilar
Q4 1:41
2ND & 10
OPP 14
0
0.1%
Mark Leal pass incomplete to Isaiah FordSimilar
Q4 1:35
3RD & 10
OPP 14
0
0.1%
Mark Leal pass incomplete to Bucky HodgesSimilar
Q4 1:30
4TH & 10
OPP 14
+14
0.7%
Mark Leal pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 14 yds for a TD, (Mark Leal failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 24END OF GAME
3 plays · -2 yds · 1:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-1
0.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 47Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 11
OWN 47
-1
0.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:03
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Duke Johnson for 22 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)
-10.5
KEY PLAY · Q2 6:12
Marshawn Williams run for a loss of 4 yards to the VTech 21
-8.5
KEY PLAY · Q2 1:54
Gus Edwards run for 2 yds to the VTech 32
-6.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com