2014 · Week 6 · Oct 4, 2014 · Bobby Dodd Stadium
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Win probability · GT
modelGT aheadMIA aheadconfidence bandkey playGT scoreMIA score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 3:25 · Michael Badgley 27 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 10:05: Tony Zenon run for 6 yds for a TD, (Harrison Butker KICK) — GT win probability +8.2 pts (now 56%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 5:30: GEORGIA TECH Penalty, Illegal Block (Trey Braun) to the GTech 15 — GT win probability +7.2 pts (now 54%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
- TD · Q3 8:10: B.J. Bostic run for 2 yds for a TD, (Harrison Butker KICK) — GT win probability +14.6 pts (now 74%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
- FG · Q3 3:25: Michael Badgley 27 yd FG GOOD — MIA win probability +6.1 pts (now 41%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
- TD · Q4 11:31: Deon Hill run for 8 yds for a TD, (Harrison Butker KICK) — GT win probability +13.4 pts (now 86%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
GT made the numbers' call on 3 of 5MIA made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q1 6:41MIA 4th & 8 at MIA 43, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 44.9% before the snapGo for it44.9%−0.234% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call45.1%average punt
- Q1 1:25GT 4th & 7 at GT 38, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 55.0% before the snapGo for it55.0%−0.237% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call55.2%average punt
- Q2 8:10MIA 4th & 1 at MIA 34, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call46.5%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt45.4%−1.0average punt
- Q2 3:40GT 4th & 5 at GT 34, tiedClose callWent for it · 55.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call55.1%−0.841% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt55.9%average punt
- Q2 0:29GT 4th & 16 at MIA 48, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 55.2% before the snapGo for it54.4%−0.616% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call55.0%average punt
- Q3 3:25MIA 4th & 5 at GT 10, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.3% before the snapGo for it28.2%−0.337% to convertField goalTheir call28.5%88% to makePunt17.0%−11.5average punt
- Q4 11:31GT 4th & 2 at MIA 8, up 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call71.3%54% to convertField goal68.3%−3.090% to makePunt53.4%−17.9average punt
- Q4 9:17MIA 4th & 12 at MIA 34, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.1% before the snapGo for it8.6%−0.723% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.3%average punt
- Q4 3:37GT 4th & 8 at MIA 45, up 11Close callPunted · 94.1% before the snapGo for it94.0%34% to convertField goal93.6%−0.425% to makePuntTheir call94.0%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GT made the numbers' call on 4 of 4MIA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 12:19MIA Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call46.1%97% to makeGo for two46.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 7:48GT Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call54.9%97% to makeGo for two54.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 0:00MIA Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call49.7%97% to makeGo for two49.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:05GT Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call54.0%97% to makeGo for two53.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 8:10GT Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call69.4%97% to makeGo for two69.3%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 11:31GT Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call86.8%97% to makeGo for two86.6%−0.245% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartMIADrive 1TD8 plays · 75 yds · 2:3152% → 53%
Q1 14:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+19
47.8%
Duke Johnson run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 29 for a 1ST down GEORGIA TECH Penalty, Personal Foul (Kyle Travis) to the MiaFl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+16
47.8%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Clive Walford for 16 yds to the GTech 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:19
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
47.1%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Braxton Berrios for 21 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 2TD10 plays · 62 yds · 3:5747% → 50%
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
47.7%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Defensive Offside (Tyriq McCord) to the MiaFl 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 3PUNT6 plays · 2 yds · 0:5851% → 50%
Q1 6:41
4TH & 8
OWN 43
0
49.6%
Justin Vogel punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Jamal Golden at the GTech 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 4PUNT10 plays · 26 yds · 5:0550% → 51%
Q1 1:25
4TH & 7
OWN 38
+4
50.9%
Ryan Rodwell punt for 50 yds , Stacy Coley returns for 4 yds to the MiaFl 42 MIAMI FL Penalty, Illegal Block (Walter Tucker) to the MiaFl 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 5TD4 plays · 92 yds · 1:1850% → 57%
GTDrive 6TD11 plays · 69 yds · 4:4045% → 56%
Q2 13:45
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+1
45.0%
Justin Thomas pass complete to Micheal Summers for 1 yd to the GTech 35Similar
Q2 13:30
3RD & 6
OWN 35
+15
44.5%
Thomas, Justin pass incomplete to Smelter, DeAndre (TEAM), PENALTY MIAMIFL pass interference (Fentress, Nantambu-Akil) 15 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN GATECH, QB hurry by TEAM, QB hit by TEAM. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
50
-2
46.3%
Tony Zenon run for 8 yards to the MiaFl 42 yard line GEORGIA TECH Penalty, Offensive Holding (Darren Waller) to the GTech 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 7INT9 plays · 48 yds · 4:0249% → 53%
Q2 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+21
48.7%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Clive Walford for 21 yds to the GTech 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:09
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+15
47.5%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Herb Waters for 15 yds to the GTech 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:57
2ND & 11
OPP 27
+19
46.8%
Brad Kaaya pass intercepted Isaiah Johnson return for 19 yds to the GTech 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 8PUNT12 plays · 23 yds · 5:0154% → 54%
Q2 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-14
54.1%
GEORGIA TECH Penalty, Illegal Block (Trey Braun) to the GTech 15Similar
Q2 4:21
2ND & 18
OWN 21
+13
53.6%
Justin Thomas pass complete to Micheal Summers for 13 yds to the GTech 34Similar
Q2 0:52
2ND & 8
OPP 40
-8
57.6%
Justin Thomas sacked by Thurston Armbrister for a loss of 8 yards to the MiaFl 48Similar
Q2 0:29
4TH & 16
OPP 48
0
53.5%
Ryan Rodwell punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Stacy Coley at the MiaFl 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 9END OF HALF1 play · 1 yds · 0:0049% → 49%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 10TD15 plays · 75 yds · 6:3554% → 74%
Q3 13:00
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+9
54.2%
Justin Thomas pass complete to Tony Zenon for 9 yds to the GTech 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 11FG11 plays · 71 yds · 4:0833% → 41%
GTDrive 12TD15 plays · 75 yds · 6:4466% → 86%
MIADrive 13PUNT7 plays · 9 yds · 1:5814% → 10%
Q4 10:38
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
86.1%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Malcolm Lewis for 6 yds to the MiaFl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:44
3RD & 6
OWN 40
-6
86.0%
Brad Kaaya sacked by Paul Davis for a loss of 6 yards to the MiaFl 34Similar
Q4 9:17
4TH & 12
OWN 34
0
89.8%
Justin Vogel punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jamal Golden at the GTech 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 14PUNT13 plays · 27 yds · 5:3390% → 95%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 15INT11 plays · 74 yds · 2:185% → 5%
Q4 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+8
95.0%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Braxton Berrios for 8 yds to the MiaFl 24Similar
Q4 2:50
3RD & 2
OWN 24
+20
94.8%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Phillip Dorsett for 20 yds to the MiaFl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
94.2%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Duke Johnson for 8 yds to the GTech 48Similar
Q4 2:20
2ND & 2
OPP 48
-5
93.4%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Malcolm Lewis) to the MiaFl 47Similar
Q4 2:10
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+28
94.2%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Duke Johnson for 28 yds to the GTech 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:41
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-3
93.0%
Brad Kaaya sacked by KeShun Freeman for a loss of 3 yards to the GTech 28Similar
Q4 1:34
2ND & 13
OPP 28
+18
95.5%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Phillip Dorsett for 18 yds to the GTech 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
95.0%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Joseph Yearby for no gain to the GTech 10Similar
Q4 1:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
95.0%
Brad Kaaya pass intercepted, touchback. Jamal Golden return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:10
B.J. Bostic run for 2 yds for a TD, (Harrison Butker KICK)
+14.6
TD · Q4 11:31
Deon Hill run for 8 yds for a TD, (Harrison Butker KICK)
+13.4
TD · Q2 10:05
Tony Zenon run for 6 yds for a TD, (Harrison Butker KICK)
+8.2