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Win probability · NEB
modelNEB aheadMIA aheadconfidence bandkey playNEB scoreMIA score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:29 · Brad Kaaya pass complete to Clive Walford for 9 yds to the Neb 31 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 13:52: Brad Kaaya pass complete to Clive Walford for 6 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK) — MIA win probability +5.8 pts (now 41%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
- TD · Q2 7:10: Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Ameer Abdullah for 3 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK) — NEB win probability +9.5 pts (now 68%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
- TD · Q3 10:06: Ameer Abdullah run for 6 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK) — NEB win probability +11.5 pts (now 82%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
- TD · Q3 5:09: Brad Kaaya pass complete to Malcolm Lewis for 9 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK) — MIA win probability +17.8 pts (now 39%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
- FUMBLE · Q3 2:23: Duke Johnson run for 4 yds Duke Johnson fumbled, forced by Trevor Roach, recovered by Neb Josh Mitchell , return for 57 yds, (Drew Brown KICK) — NEB win probability +15.3 pts (now 80%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
NEB made the numbers' call on 0 of 3MIA made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
- Q1 4:10NEB 4th & 1 at NEB 14, tiedClose callPunted · 68.6% before the snapGo for it68.9%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call68.5%−0.4average punt
- Q1 2:44MIA 4th & 3 at MIA 44, tiedClose callPunted · 31.2% before the snapGo for it31.3%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call31.2%−0.1average punt
- Q2 6:01MIA 4th & 11 at MIA 22, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 33.8% before the snapGo for it32.6%−1.725% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call34.4%average punt
- Q2 0:00NEB 4th & 2 at MIA 2, tiedNumbers favored go for it by 2.5 ptsKicked a field goal · 66.5% before the snapGo for it68.6%48% to convertField goalTheir call66.1%−2.594% to makePunt59.5%−9.1average punt
- Q4 9:21NEB 4th & 3 at MIA 21, up 7Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsKicked a field goal · 87.2% before the snapGo for it87.4%51% to convertField goalTheir call86.4%−1.074% to makePunt77.6%−9.8average punt
- Q4 7:24MIA 4th & 4 at NEB 35, down 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call10.6%48% to convertField goal9.5%−1.145% to makePunt8.9%−1.7average punt
- Q4 7:18MIA 4th & 4 at NEB 35, down 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call10.5%48% to convertField goal9.4%−1.045% to makePunt8.8%−1.7average punt
- Q4 1:29MIA 4th & 3 at NEB 40, down 17Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.8%52% to convertField goal1.6%−0.234% to makePunt1.5%−0.3average punt
- Q4 0:18MIA 4th & 4 at NEB 4, down 17Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.8%40% to convertField goal1.8%−0.993% to makePunt1.2%−1.5average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NEB made the numbers' call on 4 of 4MIA made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q1 10:26MIA Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call30.2%97% to makeGo for two30.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 8:12NEB Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call70.4%97% to makeGo for two70.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 13:52MIA Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call36.8%97% to makeGo for two36.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:10NEB Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call64.2%97% to makeGo for two64.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:06NEB Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call80.9%97% to makeGo for two80.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:09MIA Touchdown, down 4 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call29.8%97% to makeGo for two29.6%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 4:13NEB Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.8%97% to makeGo for two97.5%−0.345% to convert
- Q4 0:18MIA Touchdown, down 11 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call4.8%97% to makeGo for two4.2%−0.545% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartMIADrive 1TD11 plays · 75 yds · 4:2830% → 33%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
69.9%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Malcolm Lewis for 15 yds to the MiaFl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:57
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+17
69.7%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Stacy Coley for 17 yds to the Neb 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:09
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+9
69.4%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Malcolm Lewis for 9 yds to the Neb 17Similar
Q1 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
69.0%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Clive Walford for 5 yds to the Neb 10Similar
Q1 11:03
2ND & 5
OPP 10
+8
68.9%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Clive Walford for 8 yds to the Neb 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 2TD8 plays · 81 yds · 2:0268% → 70%
Q1 9:27
1ST & 15
OWN 31
+6
67.4%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Kenny Bell for 6 yds to the Neb 37Similar
Q1 8:40
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+17
67.3%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 17 yds to the MiaFl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
69.8%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Kenny Bell for 40 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 3INT7 plays · 47 yds · 2:0331% → 33%
Q1 8:03
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+26
69.0%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Duke Johnson for 26 yds to the MiaFl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:42
3RD & 7
OWN 49
+23
68.1%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Braxton Berrios for 23 yds to the Neb 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:09
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
67.4%
Brad Kaaya pass intercepted David Santos return for no gain to the Neb 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 4PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 1:5469% → 68%
Q1 4:10
4TH & 1
OWN 14
0
67.7%
Sam Foltz punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Stacy Coley at the MiaFl 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 5PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 1:2032% → 32%
NEBDrive 6FUMBLE6 plays · 35 yds · 2:0968% → 70%
Q1 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-9
68.3%
Armstrong Jr., Tommy rush for 1 yard to the NEBRASKA20, PENALTY NEBRASKA holding (Lewis, Alex) 9 yards to the NEBRASKA10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:47
2ND & 13
OWN 16
+14
68.3%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Alonzo Moore for 14 yds to the Neb 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+14
69.1%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Jordan Westerkamp for 14 yds to the MiaFl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
69.7%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 44 Tommy Armstrong Jr. fumbled, forced by Deon Bush, recovered by MiaFl Anthony ChickilloSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 7TD4 plays · 56 yds · 1:3134% → 41%
Q1 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+17
66.0%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Clive Walford for 17 yds to the Neb 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:09
2ND & 9
OPP 38
+32
65.3%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Duke Johnson for 32 yds to the Neb 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
59.5%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Clive Walford for 6 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 8TD17 plays · 79 yds · 6:2661% → 68%
Q2 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
61.9%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Kenny Bell for 7 yds to the MiaFl 46Similar
Q2 10:02
2ND & 6
OPP 35
-10
62.7%
Cross, Imani rush for 1 yard to the MIAMIFL34, PENALTY NEBRASKA holding (Reeves, Ryne) 10 yards to the MIAMIFL45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:05
3RD & 11
OPP 40
+17
58.1%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Kenny Bell for 17 yds to the MiaFl 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
58.6%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Lane Hovey, broken up by Artie BurnsSimilar
Q2 7:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
68.1%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Ameer Abdullah for 3 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 9PUNT7 plays · -1 yds · 1:0137% → 34%
NEBDrive 10END OF HALF14 plays · 50 yds · 5:5569% → 69%
Q2 1:41
3RD & 5
OPP 10
+5
67.5%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Encroachment (Calvin Heurtelou) to the MiaFl 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 11TD13 plays · 75 yds · 4:4868% → 82%
Q3 14:23
2ND & 2
OWN 33
-1
70.3%
Ameer Abdullah run for a loss of 1 yard to the Neb 32 Ameer Abdullah fumbled, recovered by Neb Ameer AbdullahSimilar
Q3 13:50
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+4
68.6%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Alonzo Moore for 4 yds to the Neb 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:10
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+7
71.3%
Armstrong Jr., Tommy pass incomplete, PENALTY MIAMIFL pass interference (Armbrister, Thurston) 7 yards to the MIAMIFL32, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NEBRASKA. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:03
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+15
72.0%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 15 yds to the MiaFl 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:03
2ND & 9
OPP 16
+8
72.1%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Alonzo Moore for 8 yds to the MiaFl 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 12TD12 plays · 76 yds · 4:4420% → 39%
Q3 9:14
3RD & 3
OWN 31
+4
80.5%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Stacy Coley for 4 yds to the MiaFl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
79.3%
Kaaya, Brad pass complete to Johnson, Duke for no gain to the MIAMIFL45, PENALTY NEBRASKA face mask (Banderas, Josh) 15 yards to the NEBRASKA40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MIAMIFL. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
77.4%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Malcolm Lewis for 5 yds to the Neb 15Similar
Q3 5:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
61.0%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Malcolm Lewis for 9 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 13INT5 plays · 22 yds · 1:2269% → 72%
Q3 3:32
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
71.8%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass intercepted Tracy Howard return for no gain to the MiaFl 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 14FUMBLE TD4 plays · 29 yds · 1:0433% → 20%
Q3 3:20
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+18
67.5%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Braxton Berrios for 18 yds to the MiaFl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:23
2ND & 3
OPP 47
+57
79.9%
Duke Johnson run for 4 yds Duke Johnson fumbled, forced by Trevor Roach, recovered by Neb Josh Mitchell , return for 57 yds, (Drew Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 15FG10 plays · 47 yds · 3:4118% → 20%
Q3 1:38
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+15
82.2%
Kaaya, Brad pass pass intended for Berrios, Braxton intercepted by Gerry, Nate at the MIAMIFL47, Gerry, Nate return 12 yards to the MIAMIFL35, PENALTY NEBRASKA roughing passer 15 yards to the NEBRASKA48, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MIAMIFL. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+15
80.8%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Clive Walford for 15 yds to the Neb 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:29
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+20
80.8%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Standish Dobard for 20 yds to the Neb 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-10
80.9%
Brad Kaaya sacked by Randy Gregory for a loss of 10 yards to the Neb 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 16FG10 plays · 54 yds · 4:0385% → 87%
Q4 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-10
88.1%
Armstrong Jr., Tommy rush for 6 yards to the MIAMIFL22, PENALTY NEBRASKA holding (Lewis, Alex) 10 yards to the MIAMIFL38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:26
3RD & 3
OPP 21
0
87.9%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Kenny Bell NEBRASKA Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 17INT9 plays · 40 yds · 1:5711% → 12%
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
89.3%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Malcolm Lewis for 2 yds to the MiaFl 27Similar
Q4 8:55
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+32
89.0%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Phillip Dorsett for 32 yds to the Neb 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:16
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-2
86.7%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Braxton Berrios for a loss of 2 yards to the Neb 43Similar
Q4 7:24
4TH & 4
OPP 35
+4
88.5%
Brad Kaaya pass intercepted Jamal Turner return for 4 yds to the Neb 30Similar
Q4 7:18
4TH & 4
OPP 35
+5
88.5%
Brad Kaaya pass intercepted Joshua Kalu return for 5 yds to the Neb 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 18TD8 plays · 70 yds · 3:0591% → 98%
MIADrive 19TD17 plays · 79 yds · 3:442% → 4%
Q4 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
97.6%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Herb Waters, broken up by Greg McMullenSimilar
Q4 3:21
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+16
97.6%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Phillip Dorsett for 16 yds to the Neb 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-15
97.7%
Brad Kaaya sacked by Randy Gregory for a loss of 15 yards to the MiaFl 38 Brad Kaaya fumbled, forced by Randy Gregory, recovered by MiaFl Stacy Coley , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 2:05
2ND & 25
OWN 38
+22
97.9%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Joseph Yearby for 22 yds to the Neb 40Similar
Q4 1:29
4TH & 3
OPP 40
+9
97.7%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Clive Walford for 9 yds to the Neb 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+20
97.4%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Clive Walford for 20 yds to the Neb 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:18
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
95.6%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Braxton Berrios for 4 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 20END OF GAME2 plays · -3 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:09
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Malcolm Lewis for 9 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)
-17.8
FUMBLE · Q3 2:23
Duke Johnson run for 4 yds Duke Johnson fumbled, forced by Trevor Roach, recovered by Neb Josh Mitchell , return for 57 yds, (Drew Brown KICK)
+15.3
TD · Q3 10:06
Ameer Abdullah run for 6 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK)
+11.5