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MIA

Miami 13 at Louisville 31

LOU
2014 · Week 1 · Sep 1, 2014 · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
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Win probability · LOU
modelLOU aheadMIA aheadconfidence bandkey playLOU scoreMIA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 12:38 · Dominique Brown run for 6 yds to the Lvile 28 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+31.5+15.80−15.8−31.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 47Home team on offense+0.5Pregame prior+7.5Garbage-time factor−0.3Score differential−0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 6:39: Will Gardner pass complete to Charles Standberry for 2 yds for a TD, (John Wallace KICK) — LOU win probability +2.7 pts (now 64%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 14:21: Brad Kaaya pass complete to Clive Walford for 2 yds for a TD, (Matt Goudis KICK) — MIA win probability +6.9 pts (now 42%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 4:37: Corvin Lamb 97 Yd Kickoff Return (John Wallace Kick) — LOU win probability +14.3 pts (now 69%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 3:34: Dominique Brown run for 15 yds for a TD, (John Wallace KICK) — LOU win probability +16.1 pts (now 84%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:43: Will Gardner pass complete to Gerald Christian for 10 yds for a TD, (John Wallace KICK) — LOU win probability +2.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LOU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8MIA made the numbers' call on 10 of 10
  1. Q1 14:05LOU 4th & 10 at LOU 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.5%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:34MIA 4th & 6 at MIA 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.5%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:53MIA 4th & 7 at MIA 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.4%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:23LOU 4th & 13 at LOU 7, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.1%−0.9
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:38LOU 4th & 1 at LOU 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    63.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    62.6%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:06LOU 4th & 4 at LOU 45, tied
    Close callPunted · 64.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.8%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:51MIA 4th & 5 at LOU 7, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.1%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.1%
    91% to make
    Punt
    34.6%−5.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:02MIA 4th & 7 at MIA 28, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.4%−0.5
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.0%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:07LOU 4th & 7 at LOU 43, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.6%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.9%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:19MIA 4th & 5 at MIA 27, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.4%−1.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.5%
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:54MIA 4th & 6 at MIA 29, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.4%−0.4
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:54MIA 4th & 7 at LOU 7, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.9%−0.5
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.4%
    91% to make
    Punt
    25.5%−6.9
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:10LOU 4th & 4 at LOU 49, up 1
    Close callPunted · 66.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.0%−0.9
    average punt
  14. Q3 6:06MIA 4th & 15 at MIA 15, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.3%−4.9
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 13:11LOU 4th & 10 at MIA 11, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 85.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.6%−1.7
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.3%
    87% to make
    Punt
    74.5%−10.8
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:30MIA 4th & 4 at LOU 33, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    10.3%−0.7
    49% to make
    Punt
    9.5%−1.5
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:53LOU 4th & 1 at MIA 20, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    94.8%−0.5
    75% to make
    Punt
    93.2%−2.0
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:24MIA 4th & 2 at LOU 14, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.7%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    1.6%−0.1
    84% to make
    Punt
    0.9%−0.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LOU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4MIA made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 6:39LOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:21MIA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:37LOU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 3:34LOU Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 1:43LOU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LOUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:4561% → 61%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
60.7%
Will Gardner pass incomplete to Gerald ChristianSimilar
Q1 14:42
2ND & 10
OWN 16
0
60.7%
Dominique Brown run for no gain to the Lvile 16Similar
Q1 14:13
3RD & 10
OWN 16
0
60.6%
Will Gardner pass incomplete to Gerald ChristianSimilar
Q1 14:05
4TH & 10
OWN 16
0
60.6%
Ryan Johnson punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Stacy Coley at the MiaFl 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:1739% → 39%
Q1 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
60.6%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Stacy Coley for no gain to the MiaFl 41Similar
Q1 13:21
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+4
60.6%
Duke Johnson run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 45Similar
Q1 12:41
3RD & 6
OWN 45
0
60.5%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Stacy ColeySimilar
Q1 12:34
4TH & 6
OWN 45
0
60.7%
Justin Vogel punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Kai De La Cruz at the Lvile 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 3TD
12 plays · 93 yds · 5:4761% → 64%
Q1 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+3
60.7%
Dominique Brown run for 3 yds to the Lvile 10Similar
Q1 11:48
2ND & 7
OWN 10
+6
60.6%
Dominique Brown run for 6 yds to the Lvile 16Similar
Q1 11:28
3RD & 1
OWN 16
+2
60.5%
Dominique Brown run for 2 yds to the Lvile 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+8
60.6%
Will Gardner pass complete to Eli Rogers for 8 yds to the Lvile 26Similar
Q1 10:34
2ND & 2
OWN 26
+21
60.8%
Will Gardner pass complete to Eli Rogers for 21 yds to the Lvile 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
61.1%
Dominique Brown run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 48Similar
Q1 9:28
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+10
61.3%
Will Gardner pass complete to Gerald Christian for 10 yds to the MiaFl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:54
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
61.3%
Will Gardner pass complete to Eli Rogers for 9 yds to the MiaFl 29Similar
Q1 8:37
2ND & 1
OPP 29
+19
61.3%
Dominique Brown run for 19 yds to the MiaFl 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
61.5%
Dominique Brown run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 6Similar
Q1 7:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
61.5%
Dominique Brown run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 2Similar
Q1 6:39
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
64.2%
Will Gardner pass complete to Charles Standberry for 2 yds for a TD, (John Wallace KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:2837% → 36%
Q1 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-1
63.4%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Braxton Berrios for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 30Similar
Q1 5:45
2ND & 11
OWN 30
+4
63.8%
Duke Johnson run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 34Similar
Q1 5:05
3RD & 7
OWN 34
0
64.1%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Phillip DorsettSimilar
Q1 4:53
4TH & 7
OWN 34
0
64.5%
Justin Vogel punt for 56 yds, downed at the Lvile 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:1764% → 64%
Q1 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-1
64.3%
L.J. Scott run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 9Similar
Q1 4:09
2ND & 11
OWN 9
+4
64.3%
Dominique Brown run for 4 yds to the Lvile 13Similar
Q1 3:36
3RD & 7
OWN 13
0
64.2%
Will Gardner pass incomplete to Gerald ChristianSimilar
Q1 3:36
4TH & 7
OWN 13
-6
63.8%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, Personal Foul (Kai De La Cruz) to the Lvile 7Similar
Q1 3:23
4TH & 13
OWN 7
+19
63.8%
Ryan Johnson punt for 40 yds , Stacy Coley returns for 19 yds to the Lvile 26 MIAMI FL Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the Lvile 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 6TD
9 plays · 38 yds · 3:4937% → 42%
Q1 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
63.4%
Duke Johnson run for 1 yd to the Lvile 37Similar
Q1 2:36
2ND & 9
OPP 37
0
63.2%
Duke Johnson run for no gain to the Lvile 37Similar
Q1 1:50
3RD & 9
OPP 37
+4
63.6%
Duke Johnson run for 4 yds to the Lvile 33Similar
Q1 1:00
4TH & 5
OPP 33
+5
65.1%
Kaaya, Brad pass complete to Berrios, Braxton for 5 yards to the LOUISVILLE28, PENALTY LOUISVILLE pass interference (Floyd, Terell) 5 yards to the LOUISVILLE28, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MIAMIFL. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-5
63.6%
MIAMI FL Penalty, False Start (Malcolm Lewis) to the Lvile 33Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 15
OPP 33
0
64.3%
Duke Johnson run for no gain to the Lvile 33Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 15
OPP 33
+31
64.6%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Clive Walford for 31 yds to the Lvile 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
57.7%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Clive Walford for 2 yds for a TD, (Matt Goudis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 7FUMBLE
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:0061% → 61%
Q2 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-5
61.1%
Will Gardner sacked by Anthony Chickillo for a loss of 5 yards to the Lvile 7 Will Gardner fumbled, recovered by MiaFl Thurston Armbrister , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 8FUMBLE
1 play · -5 yds · 0:0043% → 43%
Q2 13:57
1ST & 0
OPP 7
-5
57.2%
Stacy Coley run for a loss of 5 yards to the Lvile 13 Stacy Coley fumbled, recovered by Lvile Keith KelseySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 9PUNT
11 plays · 32 yds · 3:4561% → 62%
Q2 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
61.1%
Will Gardner pass incomplete to Eli RogersSimilar
Q2 13:44
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+9
61.0%
Will Gardner pass complete to Dominique Brown for 9 yds to the Lvile 22Similar
Q2 13:11
3RD & 1
OWN 22
0
60.9%
Dominique Brown run for no gain to the Lvile 22Similar
Q2 12:38
4TH & 1
OWN 22
+6
60.0%
Dominique Brown run for 6 yds to the Lvile 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
61.5%
Will Gardner pass complete to Kai De La Cruz for 6 yds to the Lvile 34Similar
Q2 11:46
2ND & 4
OWN 34
+3
62.3%
Dominique Brown run for 3 yds to the Lvile 37Similar
Q2 11:17
3RD & 1
OWN 37
+2
62.1%
Will Gardner run for 2 yds to the Lvile 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
62.2%
Will Gardner pass incomplete to Eli RogersSimilar
Q2 10:48
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+6
62.0%
Will Gardner pass complete to James Quick for 6 yds to the Lvile 45Similar
Q2 10:18
3RD & 4
OWN 45
0
62.5%
Will Gardner pass incomplete to Michaelee HarrisSimilar
Q2 10:06
4TH & 4
OWN 45
+3
61.6%
Ryan Johnson punt for 53 yds , Stacy Coley returns for 3 yds to the MiaFl 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 10FG
11 plays · 88 yds · 5:0340% → 46%
Q2 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+6
60.1%
Duke Johnson run for 6 yds to the MiaFl 11Similar
Q2 9:15
2ND & 4
OWN 11
+20
59.6%
Duke Johnson run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 16 for a 1ST down LOUISVILLE Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle (15 Yards) to the MiaFl 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+24
59.0%
Duke Johnson run for 24 yds to the Lvile 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-10
56.9%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Offensive Holding (Clive Walford) to the MiaFl 45Similar
Q2 7:47
1ST & 20
OWN 45
+4
57.2%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Stacy Coley for 4 yds to the MiaFl 49Similar
Q2 7:18
2ND & 16
OWN 49
+39
57.7%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Phillip Dorsett for 39 yds to the Lvile 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:42
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
55.0%
Duke Johnson run for no gain to the Lvile 12Similar
Q2 6:10
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+7
54.9%
Duke Johnson run for 7 yds to the Lvile 5Similar
Q2 5:10
3RD & 3
OPP 5
-2
55.5%
Gus Edwards run for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 7Similar
Q2 4:51
4TH & 5
OPP 7
+24
54.2%
Matt Goudis 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:1732% → 31%
Q2 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
67.7%
Duke Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaFl 23Similar
Q2 3:53
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+5
68.0%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Stacy Coley for 5 yds to the MiaFl 28Similar
Q2 3:12
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
68.6%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Stacy ColeySimilar
Q2 3:02
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+5
69.5%
Justin Vogel punt for 50 yds , Kai De La Cruz returns for 5 yds to the Lvile 33 LOUISVILLE Penalty, Illegal Block (Chucky Williams) to the Lvile 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 26 yds · 1:4666% → 65%
Q2 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+23
66.0%
Will Gardner pass complete to Eli Rogers for 23 yds to the Lvile 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-2
67.6%
Dominique Brown run for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 38Similar
Q2 1:54
2ND & 12
OWN 38
+5
65.8%
Will Gardner run for 5 yds to the Lvile 43Similar
Q2 1:15
3RD & 7
OWN 43
0
66.0%
Will Gardner pass incomplete to Kai De La CruzSimilar
Q2 1:07
4TH & 7
OWN 43
0
65.2%
Ryan Johnson punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Stacy Coley at the MiaFl 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:2631% → 30%
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
68.7%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Joseph Yearby for 4 yds to the MiaFl 26Similar
Q2 0:31
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+1
68.5%
Duke Johnson run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 27Similar
Q2 0:26
3RD & 5
OWN 27
0
68.9%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Stacy ColeySimilar
Q2 0:19
4TH & 5
OWN 27
0
70.0%
Justin Vogel punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Kai De La Cruz at the Lvile 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 14END OF HALF
5 plays · 14 yds · 0:1267% → 66%
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+25
66.9%
Will Gardner pass complete to James Quick for 25 yds to the MiaFl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-8
68.7%
Will Gardner sacked by Ufomba Kamalu for a loss of 8 yards to the Lvile 43Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 18
OWN 43
-3
66.3%
Will Gardner sacked by Denzel Perryman for a loss of 3 yards to the Lvile 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:5836% → 34%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
64.3%
Duke Johnson run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 29Similar
Q3 14:21
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
63.6%
Duke Johnson run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 34Similar
Q3 14:15
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
63.3%
Gus Edwards run for no gain to the MiaFl 34Similar
Q3 13:04
4TH & 1
OWN 34
-5
64.8%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the MiaFl 29Similar
Q3 12:54
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+1
66.2%
Justin Vogel punt for 44 yds , Kai De La Cruz returns for 1 yd to the Lvile 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 16FUMBLE
1 play · -20 yds · 0:0065% → 65%
Q3 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-18
65.1%
Will Gardner sacked by Thurston Armbrister for a loss of 18 yards to the Lvile 8 Will Gardner fumbled, forced by Thurston Armbrister, recovered by MiaFl Raphael Kirby , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 17FG
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:2141% → 39%
Q3 12:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-2
59.3%
Duke Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 10Similar
Q3 12:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
59.3%
Duke Johnson run for 2 yds to the Lvile 8Similar
Q3 11:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
60.6%
Phillip Dorsett run for 1 yd to the Lvile 7Similar
Q3 10:54
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+24
61.2%
Matt Goudis 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 24 yds · 3:3263% → 64%
Q3 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
63.0%
Dominique Brown run for 2 yds to the Lvile 27Similar
Q3 10:10
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
63.1%
Will Gardner pass complete to Gerald Christian for 4 yds to the Lvile 31Similar
Q3 9:28
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+12
62.6%
Will Gardner pass complete to Michaelee Harris for 12 yds to the Lvile 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
65.8%
Dominique Brown run for 8 yds to the MiaFl 49Similar
Q3 8:29
2ND & 2
OPP 49
+1
66.9%
Dominique Brown run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 48Similar
Q3 7:52
3RD & 1
OPP 48
-3
66.3%
Dominique Brown run for a loss of 3 yards to the Lvile 49Similar
Q3 7:10
4TH & 4
OWN 49
0
64.0%
Ryan Johnson punt for 51 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 19PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:5738% → 34%
Q3 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
62.4%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Phillip DorsettSimilar
Q3 6:51
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-5
62.7%
Duke Johnson run for a loss of 5 yards to the MiaFl 15Similar
Q3 6:14
3RD & 15
OWN 15
0
64.4%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Stacy ColeySimilar
Q3 6:06
4TH & 15
OWN 15
0
65.6%
Justin Vogel punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Kai De La Cruz at the Lvile 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 20TD
6 plays · 51 yds · 2:2167% → 84%
Q3 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
66.8%
Dominique Brown run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 5:32
2ND & 9
50
+10
66.9%
Will Gardner pass complete to Gerald Christian for 10 yds to the MiaFl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:58
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+9
67.2%
Will Gardner pass complete to James Quick for 9 yds to the MiaFl 31Similar
Q3 4:23
2ND & 1
OPP 31
+3
68.3%
Dominique Brown run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+13
68.3%
Will Gardner pass complete to Gerald Christian for 13 yds to the MiaFl 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:34
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
84.4%
Dominique Brown run for 15 yds for a TD, (John Wallace KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 21INT
5 plays · 10 yds · 1:0420% → 20%
Q3 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
80.4%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Duke Johnson for 5 yds to the MiaFl 30Similar
Q3 2:55
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
80.3%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Clive WalfordSimilar
Q3 2:49
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+5
81.1%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Clive Walford for 5 yds to the MiaFl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
80.5%
Brad Kaaya pass intercepted James Sample return for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 22FG
10 plays · 39 yds · 3:5885% → 86%
Q3 2:09
1ST & 10
50
+12
84.9%
James Quick run for 12 yds to the MiaFl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:46
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
85.5%
Dominique Brown run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 36Similar
Q3 1:00
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+4
85.7%
Will Gardner pass complete to Kai De La Cruz for 4 yds to the MiaFl 32Similar
Q3 0:36
3RD & 4
OPP 32
+7
85.3%
Dominique Brown run for 7 yds to the MiaFl 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+14
86.4%
Dominique Brown run for 14 yds to the MiaFl 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
86.5%
Dominique Brown run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 10Similar
Q4 14:17
2ND & 9
OPP 10
-5
87.0%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, False Start (Jake Smith) to the MiaFl 15Similar
Q4 13:53
2ND & 14
OPP 15
0
86.9%
Will Gardner pass incomplete to Eli RogersSimilar
Q4 13:41
3RD & 14
OPP 15
+4
85.8%
Will Gardner pass complete to Eli Rogers for 4 yds to the MiaFl 11Similar
Q4 13:11
4TH & 10
OPP 11
+28
86.4%
John Wallace 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 23DOWNS
9 plays · 38 yds · 3:2715% → 12%
Q4 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+11
84.9%
Duke Johnson run for 11 yds to the MiaFl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
83.8%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Phillip DorsettSimilar
Q4 12:26
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+21
84.9%
Duke Johnson run for 21 yds to the Lvile 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:47
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-5
84.2%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Danny Isidora) to the Lvile 44Similar
Q4 11:09
1ST & 15
OPP 44
+3
85.2%
Gus Edwards run for 3 yds to the Lvile 41Similar
Q4 10:40
2ND & 12
OPP 41
-11
85.0%
Brad Kaaya sacked by Deiontrez Mount for a loss of 11 yards to the MiaFl 48Similar
Q4 10:04
3RD & 23
OWN 48
+19
89.6%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Gus Edwards for 19 yds to the Lvile 33Similar
Q4 9:30
4TH & 4
OPP 33
0
88.1%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Stacy ColeySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 24TD
17 plays · 67 yds · 7:3991% → 99%
Q4 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
90.6%
Dominique Brown run for 2 yds to the Lvile 35Similar
Q4 8:39
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+9
90.7%
Will Gardner pass complete to Lamar Atkins for 9 yds to the Lvile 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
91.7%
Dominique Brown run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 7:15
2ND & 4
50
-5
92.2%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Lvile 45Similar
Q4 6:55
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+11
92.1%
Dominique Brown run for 11 yds to the MiaFl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-3
92.8%
Dominique Brown run for a loss of 3 yards to the MiaFl 47Similar
Q4 5:34
2ND & 13
OPP 47
+6
93.3%
Dominique Brown run for 6 yds to the MiaFl 41Similar
Q4 4:56
3RD & 7
OPP 41
+12
93.4%
Will Gardner pass complete to Gerald Christian for 12 yds to the MiaFl 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:22
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
93.9%
L.J. Scott run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 27Similar
Q4 3:45
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+1
94.5%
L.J. Scott run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 26Similar
Q4 3:30
3RD & 7
OPP 26
+6
95.9%
Dominique Brown run for 6 yds to the MiaFl 20Similar
Q4 2:53
4TH & 1
OPP 20
+2
96.1%
Dominique Brown run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:26
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+6
96.5%
Dominique Brown run for 6 yds to the MiaFl 12Similar
Q4 1:49
2ND & 4
OPP 12
+2
97.1%
Dominique Brown run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 10Similar
Q4 1:43
3RD & 2
OPP 10
+10
99.2%
Will Gardner pass complete to Gerald Christian for 10 yds for a TD, (John Wallace KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 25INT
13 plays · 46 yds · 1:352% → 1%
Q4 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+26
98.5%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Herb Waters for 26 yds to the Lvile 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+17
98.3%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Herb Waters for 17 yds to the Lvile 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:04
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+6
98.0%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Herb Waters for 6 yds to the Lvile 16Similar
Q4 0:49
2ND & 4
OPP 16
+2
98.0%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Herb Waters for 2 yds to the Lvile 14Similar
Q4 0:29
3RD & 2
OPP 14
0
98.3%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Stacy ColeySimilar
Q4 0:24
4TH & 2
OPP 14
+5
98.3%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Herb Waters for 5 yds to the Lvile 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-5
98.0%
Brad Kaaya sacked by Sheldon Rankins for a loss of 5 yards to the Lvile 14Similar
Q4 0:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 14
+5
99.3%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Herb Waters for 5 yds to the Lvile 9Similar
Q4 0:13
3RD & 0
OPP 9
-5
98.9%
MIAMI FL Penalty, False Start (Danny Isidora) to the Lvile 14Similar
Q4 0:13
3RD & 0
OPP 14
-5
99.0%
MIAMI FL Penalty, False Start (Ereck Flowers) to the Lvile 19Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 0
OPP 19
+61
99.0%
Brad Kaaya pass intercepted Gerod Holliman return for 61 yds to the MiaFl 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:34
Dominique Brown run for 15 yds for a TD, (John Wallace KICK)
+16.1
TD · Q2 4:37
Corvin Lamb 97 Yd Kickoff Return (John Wallace Kick)
+14.3
TD · Q2 14:21
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Clive Walford for 2 yds for a TD, (Matt Goudis KICK)
-6.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com