Try the model
LOU

Louisville 31 at Notre Dame 28

ND
2014 · Week 13 · Nov 22, 2014 · Notre Dame Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ND
modelND aheadLOU aheadconfidence bandkey playND scoreLOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 15:00 · Ryan Johnson punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Greg Bryant at the NDame 49
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+27.5+13.80−13.8−27.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 88Pregame prior+13.7Home team on offense−10.6Score differential−6.1Garbage-time factor−3.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 12:47: Tarean Folston run for 6 yds for a TD, (Kyle Brindza KICK) — ND win probability +14.8 pts (now 65%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  2. TD · Q3 9:20: Everett Golson pass complete to Corey Robinson for 7 yds for a TD, (Kyle Brindza KICK) — ND win probability +10.4 pts (now 74%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:46: Reggie Bonnafon pass complete to DeVante Parker for 21 yds for a TD, (John Wallace KICK) — LOU win probability +19.3 pts (now 53%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:55: Brandon Radcliff run for 15 yds for a TD, (John Wallace KICK) — LOU win probability +18.4 pts (now 77%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 11:17: Everett Golson pass complete to William Fuller for 28 yds for a TD, (E. Golson Run For Two-point Conversion) — ND win probability +17.2 pts (now 50%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ND made the numbers' call on 5 of 6LOU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 11:54ND 4th & 5 at LOU 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 73.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.2%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.2%
    88% to make
    Punt
    72.7%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:01ND 4th & 2 at ND 39, down 4
    Close callPunted · 70.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.5%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:51ND 4th & 5 at LOU 19, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.6%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.7%
    77% to make
    Punt
    60.3%−2.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:06LOU 4th & 13 at LOU 49, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.8%−1.0
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:01LOU 4th & 8 at ND 9, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 42.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.3%−0.5
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.8%
    89% to make
    Punt
    36.4%−5.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:01ND 4th & 9 at ND 33, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.8%−1.0
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:38LOU 4th & 5 at LOU 38, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.0%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:06ND 4th & 20 at ND 30, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.6%−1.8
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.5%
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00LOU 4th & 22 at LOU 13, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.8%−3.6
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.3%
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:47LOU 4th & 11 at LOU 24, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.8%−2.9
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.7%
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:46ND 4th & 8 at LOU 45, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.7%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    50.9%−2.3
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    53.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ND made the numbers' call on 2 of 3LOU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 7:01LOU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:54LOU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 12:47ND Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:20ND Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 5:46LOU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 14:55LOU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 11:17ND Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    38.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    38.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NDDrive 1FG
7 plays · 43 yds · 3:0677% → 76%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+27
76.5%
Everett Golson pass complete to William Fuller for 27 yds to the Lvile 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+11
76.5%
Tarean Folston run for 11 yds to the Lvile 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
76.5%
Tarean Folston run for 1 yd to the Lvile 14Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 14
+5
76.5%
Tarean Folston run for 5 yds to the Lvile 9Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 9
-1
76.5%
Everett Golson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 10Similar
Q1 11:54
4TH & 5
OPP 10
+28
76.2%
Kyle Brindza 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 2TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:5324% → 27%
Q1 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
76.1%
Reggie Bonnafon sacked by Jarron Jones and Romeo Okwara for a loss of 3 yards to the Lvile 22Similar
Q1 11:54
2ND & 13
OWN 22
-1
76.1%
Michael Dyer run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 21Similar
Q1 11:54
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+21
76.2%
Michael Dyer run for 21 yds to the Lvile 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
75.9%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 3 yds to the Lvile 45Similar
Q1 11:54
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+14
75.9%
Reggie Bonnafon pass complete to DeVante Parker for 14 yds to the NDame 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:54
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+10
75.8%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 10 yds to the NDame 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:54
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
75.8%
Michael Dyer run for 5 yds to the NDame 26Similar
Q1 11:54
2ND & 5
OPP 26
+14
75.7%
Michael Dyer run for 14 yds to the NDame 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:54
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
75.7%
Reggie Bonnafon pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:01
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+12
72.6%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 12 yds for a TD, (John Wallace KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 0:0073% → 73%
Q1 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+13
73.3%
Everett Golson pass complete to Chris Brown for 13 yds to the NDame 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
73.4%
Tarean Folston run for 1 yd to the NDame 32Similar
Q1 7:01
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+2
73.4%
Tarean Folston run for 2 yds to the NDame 34Similar
Q1 7:01
3RD & 7
OWN 34
+5
73.2%
Everett Golson run for 5 yds to the NDame 39Similar
Q1 7:01
4TH & 2
OWN 39
0
73.3%
Kyle Brindza punt for 54 yds, downed at the Lvile 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 4TD
11 plays · 93 yds · 3:4327% → 35%
Q1 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 7
-3
72.6%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, false start (-3 Yards) to the Lvile 4Similar
Q1 4:37
1ST & 13
OWN 4
+4
72.6%
Dominique Brown run for 4 yds to the Lvile 8Similar
Q1 4:37
2ND & 9
OWN 8
+15
72.7%
Michael Dyer run for no gain to the Lvile 8 for a 1ST down NOTRE DAME Penalty, personal foul (Nyles Morgan) to the Lvile 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+18
72.4%
Reggie Bonnafon pass complete to Kai De La Cruz for 18 yds to the Lvile 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-5
71.9%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Lvile 36Similar
Q1 4:37
1ST & 15
OWN 36
+4
72.4%
Brandon Radcliff run for 4 yds to the Lvile 40Similar
Q1 4:37
2ND & 11
OWN 40
0
72.1%
Reggie Bonnafon pass incomplete to DeVante Parker, broken up by Cole LukeSimilar
Q1 4:37
3RD & 11
OWN 40
-5
72.5%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Lvile 35Similar
Q1 4:37
3RD & 16
OWN 35
+52
72.8%
Reggie Bonnafon pass complete to Kai De La Cruz for 52 yds to the NDame 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:37
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
71.4%
Brandon Radcliff run for 5 yds to the NDame 8Similar
Q1 0:54
2ND & 5
OPP 8
+8
65.1%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 8 yds for a TD, (John Wallace KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 5FG
6 plays · 53 yds · 1:0366% → 67%
Q1 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+48
66.0%
Everett Golson pass complete to William Fuller for 48 yds to the Lvile 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:54
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+7
67.5%
Everett Golson pass complete to Torii Hunter Jr. for 7 yds to the Lvile 17Similar
Q1 0:54
2ND & 3
OPP 17
-2
67.5%
C.J. Prosise run for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 19Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 19
0
66.2%
Everett Golson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:51
4TH & 5
OPP 19
+37
66.6%
Kyle Brindza 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 6PUNT
11 plays · 24 yds · 2:4534% → 35%
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
66.2%
Reggie Bonnafon pass incomplete to Michael DyerSimilar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
66.4%
Reggie Bonnafon run for no gain to the Lvile 25Similar
Q2 14:51
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+10
66.8%
Reggie Bonnafon pass complete to DeVante Parker for 10 yds to the Lvile 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
65.9%
Reggie Bonnafon sacked by Jacob Matuska for a loss of 5 yards to the Lvile 30Similar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 15
OWN 30
+22
66.5%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 22 yds to the NDame 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:06
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-3
62.8%
James Quick run for a loss of 3 yards to the Lvile 49Similar
Q2 12:06
2ND & 13
OWN 49
0
63.4%
Reggie Bonnafon pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:06
3RD & 13
OWN 49
0
63.9%
Reggie Bonnafon pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:06
4TH & 13
OWN 49
0
64.7%
Ryan Johnson punt for 37 yds, downed at the NDame 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 7INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0063% → 63%
Q2 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+12
63.4%
Everett Golson pass intercepted Charles Gaines return for 12 yds to the NDame 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 8FG
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:5439% → 41%
Q2 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
61.4%
Michael Dyer run for 1 yd to the NDame 10Similar
Q2 10:55
2ND & 9
OPP 10
+5
61.4%
Michael Dyer run for 5 yds to the NDame 5Similar
Q2 10:55
3RD & 4
OPP 5
-4
61.7%
Michael Dyer run for a loss of 4 yards to the NDame 9Similar
Q2 9:01
4TH & 8
OPP 9
+26
59.5%
John Wallace 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0060% → 59%
Q2 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
60.0%
Everett Golson pass incomplete to Chris BrownSimilar
Q2 9:01
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+6
60.0%
Tarean Folston run for 6 yds to the NDame 38Similar
Q2 9:01
3RD & 4
OWN 38
-5
60.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the NDame 33Similar
Q2 9:01
4TH & 9
OWN 33
0
58.8%
Kyle Brindza punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:4943% → 44%
Q2 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
57.3%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 1 yd to the Lvile 34Similar
Q2 6:38
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+2
56.1%
Michael Dyer run for 2 yds to the Lvile 36Similar
Q2 6:38
3RD & 7
OWN 36
-5
56.0%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Lvile 31Similar
Q2 6:38
3RD & 12
OWN 31
+7
56.7%
Reggie Bonnafon pass complete to Eli Rogers for 7 yds to the Lvile 38Similar
Q2 6:38
4TH & 5
OWN 38
+57
56.3%
Ryan Johnson punt for 51 yds, downed at the NOTREDAME 11 NOTRE DAME Penalty, Offensive holding (6 Yards) to the NDame 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 25 yds · 0:0055% → 54%
Q2 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+4
54.6%
Cam McDaniel run for 4 yds to the NDame 9Similar
Q2 5:06
2ND & 6
OWN 9
+9
54.6%
Tarean Folston run for 9 yds to the NDame 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+22
55.0%
Everett Golson pass complete to Corey Robinson for 22 yds to the NDame 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
56.1%
Everett Golson pass complete to C.J. Prosise for 4 yds to the NDame 44Similar
Q2 5:06
2ND & 6
OWN 44
-13
56.5%
Everett Golson run for a loss of 13 yards to the NDame 12 Everett Golson fumbled, forced by Sheldon Rankins, recovered by NDameSimilar
Q2 5:06
3RD & 38
OWN 12
+18
54.1%
Cam McDaniel run for 18 yds to the NDame 30Similar
Q2 5:06
4TH & 20
OWN 30
+14
53.7%
Kyle Brindza punt for 54 yds , Eli Rogers returns for 14 yds to the Lvile 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 12INT
7 plays · 13 yds · 1:2250% → 57%
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
49.6%
Reggie Bonnafon pass incomplete to DeVante Parker, broken up by Devin ButlerSimilar
Q2 1:40
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+6
49.6%
Michael Dyer run for 6 yds to the Lvile 36Similar
Q2 1:40
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+7
49.3%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 7 yds to the Lvile 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
48.4%
Reggie Bonnafon pass incomplete to Kai De La CruzSimilar
Q2 1:40
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
48.4%
Reggie Bonnafon pass incomplete to DeVante Parker, broken up by Cole LukeSimilar
Q2 0:18
3RD & 10
OWN 43
-2
43.3%
Reggie Bonnafon pass intercepted Drue Tranquill return for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0048% → 48%
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-2
47.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · -12 yds · 0:0053% → 51%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
47.3%
Reggie Bonnafon pass incomplete to Gerald ChristianSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-2
47.4%
Michael Dyer run for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 23Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 23
-10
48.3%
Reggie Bonnafon sacked by Isaac Rochell for a loss of 10 yards to the Lvile 13Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 22
OWN 13
0
49.0%
Ryan Johnson punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Greg Bryant at the NDame 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 15TD
3 plays · 51 yds · 0:4548% → 65%
Q3 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+20
48.0%
Tarean Folston run for 20 yds to the Lvile 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:32
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+25
49.9%
Everett Golson pass complete to Chris Brown for 25 yds to the Lvile 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
64.7%
Tarean Folston run for 6 yds for a TD, (Kyle Brindza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 0:0042% → 39%
Q3 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
58.2%
Reggie Bonnafon run for no gain to the Lvile 25Similar
Q3 12:47
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
58.4%
Brandon Radcliff run for 4 yds to the Lvile 29Similar
Q3 12:47
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-5
58.9%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, false start (Aaron Epps) to the Lvile 24Similar
Q3 12:47
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
59.7%
Reggie Bonnafon pass incomplete to DeVante ParkerSimilar
Q3 12:47
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+61
60.8%
Ryan Johnson punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Lvile 3 , Greg Bryant returns for 61 yds to the Lvile 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 17TD
3 plays · 3 yds · 1:2664% → 74%
Q3 10:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
63.8%
Tarean Folston run for 1 yd to the Lvile 2Similar
Q3 10:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
63.8%
Everett Golson pass complete to William Fuller for a loss of 5 yards to the Lvile 7Similar
Q3 9:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
74.3%
Everett Golson pass complete to Corey Robinson for 7 yds for a TD, (Kyle Brindza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 18TD
10 plays · 81 yds · 3:3430% → 53%
Q3 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+10
70.1%
Brandon Radcliff run for 10 yds to the Lvile 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+11
69.8%
Brandon Radcliff run for 11 yds to the Lvile 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+20
68.1%
Reggie Bonnafon pass complete to DeVante Parker for 20 yds to the NDame 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
66.7%
Reggie Bonnafon pass incomplete to DeVante ParkerSimilar
Q3 9:20
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+9
66.8%
Brandon Radcliff run for 9 yds to the NDame 31Similar
Q3 9:20
3RD & 1
OPP 31
+8
66.5%
Brandon Radcliff run for 8 yds to the NDame 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-5
65.3%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NDame 28Similar
Q3 9:20
1ST & 15
OPP 28
+7
66.1%
Brandon Radcliff run for 7 yds to the NDame 21Similar
Q3 5:46
2ND & 8
OPP 21
+21
46.7%
Reggie Bonnafon pass complete to DeVante Parker for 21 yds for a TD, (John Wallace KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 0:0055% → 54%
Q3 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
55.2%
Tarean Folston run for 2 yds to the NDame 41Similar
Q3 5:46
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+12
56.8%
Tarean Folston run for 12 yds to the Lvile 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:46
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-10
58.3%
Everett Golson sacked by James Burgess for a loss of 10 yards to the NDame 43Similar
Q3 5:46
2ND & 20
OWN 43
0
54.2%
Everett Golson pass incomplete to Corey RobinsonSimilar
Q3 5:46
3RD & 20
OWN 43
+12
52.8%
Everett Golson pass complete to Corey Robinson for 12 yds to the Lvile 45Similar
Q3 5:46
4TH & 8
OPP 45
0
53.5%
Kyle Brindza punt for 45 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 20TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 3:1153% → 77%
Q3 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
46.7%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 4 yds to the Lvile 24Similar
Q3 3:06
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+41
46.3%
Brandon Radcliff run for 41 yds to the NDame 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:06
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
41.7%
Brandon Radcliff run for 6 yds to the NDame 29Similar
Q3 3:06
2ND & 4
OPP 29
+11
41.3%
Michael Dyer run for 11 yds to the NDame 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:06
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
41.3%
Michael Dyer run for 3 yds to the NDame 15Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+15
22.8%
Brandon Radcliff run for 15 yds for a TD, (John Wallace KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 21TD
8 plays · 73 yds · 3:3827% → 50%
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
26.9%
Everett Golson pass complete to Ben Koyack for 5 yds to the NDame 32Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+22
27.6%
Tarean Folston run for 22 yds to the Lvile 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
30.9%
Everett Golson pass incomplete to Cody Riggs, broken up by Lorenzo MauldinSimilar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+21
30.1%
Everett Golson pass complete to C.J. Prosise for 21 yds to the Lvile 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
32.9%
Tarean Folston run for 1 yd to the Lvile 24Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 9
OPP 24
-4
32.9%
Everett Golson sacked by Keith Kelsey for a loss of 4 yards to the Lvile 28Similar
Q4 11:17
3RD & 13
OPP 28
+28
50.1%
Everett Golson pass complete to William Fuller for 28 yds for a TD, (E. Golson Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 22MISSED FG
14 plays · 55 yds · 6:1456% → 69%
Q4 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
44.1%
Brandon Radcliff run for 2 yds to the Lvile 27Similar
Q4 11:17
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+38
43.8%
Reggie Bonnafon pass complete to Gerald Christian for 38 yds to the NDame 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:17
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
38.4%
Brandon Radcliff run for no gain to the NDame 35Similar
Q4 11:17
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
38.5%
Reggie Bonnafon pass incomplete to Gerald Christian, broken up by Jake SmithSimilar
Q4 9:15
3RD & 10
OPP 35
+15
36.4%
Bonnafon, R. pass incomplete to Parker, D., PENALTY ND roughing passer (MORGAN) 15 yards to the ND20, 1ST DOWN LOU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
33.8%
Brandon Radcliff run for 6 yds to the NDame 14Similar
Q4 9:15
2ND & 4
OPP 14
+2
33.8%
Brandon Radcliff run for 2 yds to the NDame 12Similar
Q4 9:15
3RD & 2
OPP 12
+5
35.8%
Brandon Radcliff run for 5 yds to the NDame 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
33.8%
Brandon Radcliff run for 1 yd to the NDame 6Similar
Q4 9:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
33.8%
Reggie Bonnafon run for no gain to the NDame 6Similar
Q4 9:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
-14
35.8%
Reggie Bonnafon sacked by Greer Martini for a loss of 14 yards to the NDame 20Similar
Q4 5:03
4TH & 0
OPP 20
+37
31.0%
John Wallace 37 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 23MISSED FG
15 plays · 65 yds · 4:1240% → 29%
Q4 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
40.1%
Tarean Folston run for no gain to the NDame 20Similar
Q4 5:03
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
39.6%
Everett Golson pass incomplete to Chris BrownSimilar
Q4 5:03
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+10
37.4%
Everett Golson pass complete to Chris Brown for 10 yds to the NDame 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
41.1%
Tarean Folston run for 8 yds to the NDame 38Similar
Q4 5:03
2ND & 2
OWN 38
0
44.9%
Everett Golson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:03
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+26
43.0%
Tarean Folston run for 26 yds to the Lvile 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:03
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
47.0%
Everett Golson pass complete to Chris Brown for 1 yd to the Lvile 35Similar
Q4 5:03
2ND & 9
OPP 35
+11
50.0%
Everett Golson pass complete to William Fuller for 11 yds to the Lvile 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:03
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+14
50.2%
GOLSON pass incomplete to BROWN, C., PENALTY LOU pass interference (Floyd, T.) 14 yards to the LOU10, 1ST DOWN ND, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
41.6%
Tarean Folston run for 1 yd to the Lvile 9Similar
Q4 1:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
-6
41.6%
Everett Golson sacked by Dominique Brown for a loss of 6 yards to the Lvile 15Similar
Q4 1:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 15
0
26.3%
Everett Golson pass incomplete to C.J. ProsiseSimilar
Q4 0:51
4TH & 0
OPP 15
+32
29.1%
Kyle Brindza 32 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 24END OF GAME
3 plays · -4 yds · 0:0090% → 89%
Q4 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
9.9%
Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 18Similar
Q4 0:51
2ND & 12
OWN 18
-1
10.3%
Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 17Similar
Q4 0:51
3RD & 13
OWN 17
-1
11.3%
Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:46
Reggie Bonnafon pass complete to DeVante Parker for 21 yds for a TD, (John Wallace KICK)
-19.3
TD · Q4 14:55
Brandon Radcliff run for 15 yds for a TD, (John Wallace KICK)
-18.4
TD · Q4 11:17
Everett Golson pass complete to William Fuller for 28 yds for a TD, (E. Golson Run For Two-point Conversion)
+17.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com