Try the model
LOU

Louisville 21 at Virginia 23

UVA
2014 · Week 3 · Sep 13, 2014 · Scott Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · UVA
modelUVA aheadLOU aheadconfidence bandkey playUVA scoreLOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 15:00 · Ryan Johnson punt for 40 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+22.0+11.00−11.0−22.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 45Pregame prior−17.3Home team on offense−0.7Garbage-time factor+0.1Score differential−1.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.7Blowout margin+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 10:35: Greyson Lambert run for 10 yds for a TD, (Ian Frye KICK) — UVA win probability +19.3 pts (now 68%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 2:56: Ian Frye 47 yd FG GOOD — UVA win probability +11.9 pts (now 84%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 11:10: Dominique Brown run for 6 yds for a TD, (John Wallace KICK) — LOU win probability +21.5 pts (now 40%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 6:59: Will Gardner pass complete to James Quick for 4 yds for a TD, (John Wallace KICK) — LOU win probability +31.7 pts (now 71%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 3:42: Ian Frye 42 yd FG GOOD — UVA win probability +23.7 pts (now 75%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UVA made the numbers' call on 6 of 10LOU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 9:48LOU 4th & 1 at UVA 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    70.8%−0.2
    89% to make
    Punt
    70.2%−0.8
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:22LOU 4th & 5 at midfield, up 7
    Close callPunted · 72.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.6%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:49UVA 4th & 3 at UVA 48, down 7
    Close callPunted · 28.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.6%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00LOU 4th & 13 at LOU 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.0%−1.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:17UVA 4th & 4 at LOU 45, tied
    Close callPunted · 35.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    35.0%−0.7
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    35.4%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:31LOU 4th & 9 at LOU 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.9%−0.8
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:15LOU 4th & 20 at LOU 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.6%−2.0
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:21UVA 4th & 13 at LOU 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.9%−0.7
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    35.9%−0.7
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    36.6%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:46UVA 4th & 3 at LOU 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 42.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.2%−0.1
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.3%
    79% to make
    Punt
    37.2%−5.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:35LOU 4th & 12 at LOU 23, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.5%−3.6
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:39UVA 4th & 4 at LOU 42, up 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 67.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    65.7%−2.5
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    66.8%−1.4
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:53LOU 4th & 8 at LOU 3, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.7%−3.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.0%
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:56UVA 4th & 3 at LOU 30, up 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsKicked a field goal · 74.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.6%−1.6
    56% to make
    Punt
    71.4%−3.7
    average punt
  14. Q3 2:56LOU 4th & 11 at LOU 24, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.5%−2.4
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.9%
    average punt
  15. Q4 15:00UVA 4th & 17 at UVA 30, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.8%−3.3
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.1%
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:10UVA 4th & 17 at UVA 18, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.3%−5.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.6%
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:59UVA 4th & 8 at UVA 39, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.1%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.3%
    average punt
  18. Q4 3:42UVA 4th & 10 at LOU 25, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 47.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.0%−11.0
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.1%
    66% to make
    Punt
    32.0%−22.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 3:42LOU 4th & 20 at LOU 3, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.5%−4.9
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.4%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UVA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2LOU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 9:48LOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:23UVA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 10:35UVA Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 11:10LOU Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.9%−0.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.3%
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 6:59LOU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.3%−2.7
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LOUDrive 1TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 5:1272% → 72%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
28.0%
Dominique Brown run for 7 yds to the Lvile 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+11
28.0%
Will Gardner pass complete to James Quick for 11 yds to the Lvile 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
28.0%
Dominique Brown run for 8 yds to the Virg 49Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 49
+20
28.0%
Will Gardner pass complete to Eli Rogers for 20 yds to the Virg 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+11
28.0%
L.J. Scott run for 11 yds to the Virg 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
28.0%
Dominique Brown run for 3 yds to the Virg 15Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 15
-3
28.0%
Will Gardner sacked by Henry Coley for a loss of 3 yards to the Virg 18Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 18
+9
28.0%
Will Gardner pass complete to Kai Dela Cruz for 9 yds to the Virg 9Similar
Q1 9:48
4TH & 1
OPP 9
+9
28.5%
Will Gardner pass complete to Charles Standberry for 9 yds for a TD, (John Wallace KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 2FUMBLE
5 plays · 40 yds · 0:0029% → 30%
Q1 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+50
28.9%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Miles Gooch for 50 yds to the Lvile 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:48
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
29.5%
Kevin Parks run for 4 yds to the Lvile 20Similar
Q1 9:48
2ND & 6
OPP 20
-5
29.5%
VIRGINIA Penalty, false start (N/A) to the Lvile 25Similar
Q1 9:48
2ND & 11
OPP 25
+1
29.5%
Greyson Lambert run for a loss of 9 yards to the Lvile 35 Greyson Lambert fumbled, recovered by Lvile Sheldon Rankins , return for 1 yd to the Lvile 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
Q1 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
28.6%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, false start (N/A) to the Lvile 30Similar
Q1 8:22
1ST & 15
OWN 30
+15
28.8%
Will Gardner pass complete to James Quick for 15 yds to the Lvile 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-1
28.3%
Dominique Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 44Similar
Q1 8:22
2ND & 11
OWN 44
0
28.4%
Will Gardner pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 8:22
3RD & 11
OWN 44
+6
28.6%
Will Gardner run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 8:22
4TH & 5
50
0
28.6%
Ryan Johnson punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 4PUNT
10 plays · 32 yds · 1:3929% → 29%
Q1 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+1
29.1%
Taquan Mizzell run for 1 yd to the Virg 17Similar
Q1 6:28
2ND & 9
OWN 17
+2
29.1%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 2 yds to the Virg 19Similar
Q1 6:28
3RD & 7
OWN 19
+9
28.8%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Canaan Severin for 9 yds to the Virg 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
29.0%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Kevin Parks for 5 yds to the Virg 33Similar
Q1 4:49
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+8
29.3%
Kevin Parks run for 8 yds to the Virg 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
29.6%
Kevin Parks run for 5 yds to the Virg 46Similar
Q1 4:49
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+2
29.8%
Kevin Parks run for 2 yds to the Virg 48Similar
Q1 4:49
3RD & 3
OWN 48
0
29.7%
Greyson Lambert pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 4:49
4TH & 3
OWN 48
0
29.2%
Alec Vozenilek punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 5INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
Q1 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
28.9%
Dominique Brown run for no gain to the Lvile 20Similar
Q1 2:21
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+7
29.0%
Will Gardner pass intercepted Anthony Harris return for 7 yds to the Lvile 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 6TD
3 plays · 15 yds · 1:1531% → 36%
Q1 1:38
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+6
30.8%
Kevin Parks run for 6 yds to the Lvile 9Similar
Q1 1:38
2ND & 4
OPP 9
-6
30.8%
Kevin Parks run for a loss of 6 yards to the Lvile 15Similar
Q1 0:23
3RD & 10
OPP 15
+15
36.1%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Miles Gooch for 15 yds for a TD, (Ian Frye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 7PUNT
9 plays · 9 yds · 0:2366% → 65%
Q1 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
34.0%
Will Gardner pass incomplete to Dominique BrownSimilar
Q1 0:23
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+9
34.1%
Dominique Brown run for 9 yds to the Lvile 22Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 22
+3
34.2%
Dominique Brown run for 3 yds to the Lvile 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
34.0%
Will Gardner pass complete to James Quick for 3 yds to the Lvile 28 LOUISVILLE Penalty, Offensive holding (Eli Rogers) to the Lvile 18Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 17
OWN 18
+4
34.1%
Dominique Brown run for 4 yds to the Lvile 22Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 22
0
34.2%
Will Gardner pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 22
0
34.7%
Will Gardner pass incomplete to James Quick, broken up by Max VallesSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
35.2%
Ryan Johnson punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 17 yds · 0:0037% → 36%
Q2 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
36.7%
Khalek Shepherd run for 11 yds to the Virg 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
37.4%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Miles Gooch for 3 yds to the Lvile 48Similar
Q2 13:17
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+3
37.6%
Khalek Shepherd run for 3 yds to the Lvile 45Similar
Q2 13:17
3RD & 4
OPP 45
0
37.3%
Greyson Lambert pass incomplete to Canaan Severin, broken up by James SampleSimilar
Q2 13:17
4TH & 4
OPP 45
0
36.3%
Alec Vozenilek punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Kai Dela Cruz at the Lvile 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0064% → 63%
Q2 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
35.6%
Dominique Brown run for 1 yd to the Lvile 15Similar
Q2 11:31
2ND & 9
OWN 15
0
35.8%
Will Gardner pass incomplete to Dominique BrownSimilar
Q2 11:31
3RD & 9
OWN 15
0
36.4%
Will Gardner pass incomplete to Eli RogersSimilar
Q2 11:31
4TH & 9
OWN 15
0
36.9%
Ryan Johnson punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Khalek Shepherd at the Virg 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 10INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:0039% → 37%
Q2 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
38.9%
Greyson Lambert pass incomplete to Canaan Severin, broken up by James SampleSimilar
Q2 10:31
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
38.3%
Greyson Lambert pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 10:31
3RD & 10
OWN 43
0
37.3%
Greyson Lambert pass intercepted Gerod Holliman return for no gain to the Lvile 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 0:0066% → 63%
Q2 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
34.4%
Will Gardner pass incomplete to James QuickSimilar
Q2 10:15
2ND & 10
OWN 43
-10
34.9%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, Offensive holding (N/A) to the Lvile 33Similar
Q2 10:15
2ND & 20
OWN 33
0
36.2%
Will Gardner pass incomplete to Eli Rogers, broken up by Anthony HarrisSimilar
Q2 10:15
3RD & 20
OWN 33
0
36.9%
Will Gardner pass incomplete to Dominique Brown, broken up by Daquan RomeroSimilar
Q2 10:15
4TH & 20
OWN 33
+11
37.3%
Ryan Johnson punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Virg 48 , Khalek Shepherd returns for 11 yds to the Virg 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 0:0040% → 37%
Q2 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
39.9%
Kevin Parks run for 3 yds to the Lvile 49Similar
Q2 9:21
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+8
40.2%
Taquan Mizzell run for 8 yds to the Lvile 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:21
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
40.3%
Kevin Parks run for 2 yds to the Lvile 39Similar
Q2 9:21
2ND & 8
OPP 39
0
40.2%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Miles Gooch, broken up by James SampleSimilar
Q2 9:21
3RD & 8
OPP 39
-5
39.7%
Matt Johns pass complete to Canaan Severin for a loss of 5 yards Canaan Severin fumbled, forced by Gerod Holliman, recovered by Virg Miles GoochSimilar
Q2 9:21
4TH & 13
OPP 44
0
37.0%
Alec Vozenilek punt for 41 yds, downed at the Lvile 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 13FUMBLE
4 plays · 14 yds · 0:0064% → 64%
Q2 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+4
36.5%
Dominique Brown run for 4 yds to the Lvile 7Similar
Q2 6:54
2ND & 6
OWN 7
+12
36.8%
Dominique Brown run for 12 yds to the Lvile 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
36.1%
Will Gardner pass incomplete to James Quick, broken up by Brandon PhelpsSimilar
Q2 6:54
2ND & 10
OWN 19
-2
36.4%
Will Gardner run for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 17 Will Gardner fumbled, recovered by Virg Mike MooreSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 14INT
3 plays · 7 yds · 0:0043% → 42%
Q2 5:42
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
43.0%
Kevin Parks run for 3 yds to the Lvile 14Similar
Q2 5:42
2ND & 7
OPP 14
+4
43.0%
Matt Johns pass complete to Canaan Severin for 4 yds to the Lvile 10Similar
Q2 5:42
3RD & 3
OPP 10
0
42.0%
Matt Johns pass intercepted Gerod Holliman return for no gain to the Lvile 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 15INT
5 plays · 28 yds · 0:0063% → 63%
Q2 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
37.5%
Dominique Brown run for 1 yd to the Lvile 2Similar
Q2 4:28
2ND & 9
OWN 2
+23
37.8%
Will Gardner pass complete to Kai Dela Cruz for 23 yds to the Lvile 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
37.0%
L.J. Scott run for 4 yds to the Lvile 29Similar
Q2 4:28
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
36.3%
Will Gardner pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 4:28
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
37.3%
Will Gardner pass intercepted Maurice Canady return for no gain to the Lvile 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 16FG
7 plays · 20 yds · 1:4144% → 47%
Q2 2:27
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
44.3%
Kevin Parks run for 3 yds to the Lvile 35Similar
Q2 2:27
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+10
44.9%
Matt Johns pass complete to Miles Gooch for 10 yds to the Lvile 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:27
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
44.9%
Kevin Parks run for 2 yds to the Lvile 23Similar
Q2 2:27
2ND & 8
OPP 23
0
44.9%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Khalek Shepherd, broken up by Sheldon RankinsSimilar
Q2 2:27
3RD & 8
OPP 23
+5
43.7%
Khalek Shepherd run for 5 yds to the Lvile 18Similar
Q2 0:46
4TH & 3
OPP 18
+35
46.6%
Ian Frye 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 17END OF HALF
6 plays · 34 yds · 0:4254% → 56%
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
45.6%
Reggie Bonnafon pass complete to Kai Dela Cruz for 9 yds to the Lvile 34Similar
Q2 0:46
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+10
43.7%
Reggie Bonnafon pass complete to Gerald Christian for 10 yds to the Lvile 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+15
43.0%
Reggie Bonnafon pass complete to Dominique Brown for 15 yds to the Virg 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:04
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
44.4%
Reggie Bonnafon pass incomplete to James Quick, broken up by Brandon PhelpsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 18TD
10 plays · 69 yds · 4:2547% → 68%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
46.7%
Kevin Parks run for 1 yd to the Virg 32Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+2
46.4%
Kevin Parks run for 2 yds to the Virg 34Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 34
+11
45.5%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Canaan Severin for 11 yds to the Virg 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-1
48.8%
Greyson Lambert sacked by Keith Kelsey for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 44Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 44
+31
47.5%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Darius Jennings for 31 yds to the Lvile 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
50.2%
Kevin Parks run for 1 yd to the Lvile 24Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+6
50.2%
Taquan Mizzell run for 6 yds to the Lvile 18Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 18
+8
49.0%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 8 yds to the Lvile 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
68.3%
Greyson Lambert run for 10 yds for a TD, (Ian Frye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0035% → 33%
Q3 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
64.7%
Dominique Brown run for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 23Similar
Q3 10:35
2ND & 12
OWN 23
-1
65.0%
Reggie Bonnafon sacked by Eli Harold for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 22Similar
Q3 10:35
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+1
66.4%
Reggie Bonnafon pass complete to James Quick for 1 yd to the Lvile 23Similar
Q3 10:35
4TH & 12
OWN 23
+5
67.0%
Ryan Johnson punt for 30 yds , Khalek Shepherd returns for 5 yds to the Lvile 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0070% → 67%
Q3 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
70.0%
Kevin Parks run for 3 yds to the Lvile 45Similar
Q3 8:39
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+2
69.9%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Doni Dowling for 2 yds to the Lvile 43Similar
Q3 8:39
3RD & 5
OPP 43
+1
69.0%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 1 yd to the Lvile 42Similar
Q3 8:39
4TH & 4
OPP 42
0
67.4%
Alec Vozenilek punt for 41 yds, downed at the Lvile 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0030% → 28%
Q3 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
69.8%
Dominique Brown run for no gain to the Lvile 1Similar
Q3 6:53
2ND & 10
OWN 1
0
70.1%
Reggie Bonnafon pass incomplete to James Quick, broken up by Quin BlandingSimilar
Q3 6:53
3RD & 10
OWN 1
0
71.3%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, false start (Ryan Mack) to the Lvile 1Similar
Q3 6:53
3RD & 10
OWN 1
+2
71.3%
Dominique Brown run for 2 yds to the Lvile 3Similar
Q3 6:53
4TH & 8
OWN 3
+1
72.1%
Ryan Johnson punt for 35 yds , Khalek Shepherd returns for 1 yd to the Lvile 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 22FG
6 plays · 7 yds · 2:2174% → 84%
Q3 5:17
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
74.3%
Taquan Mizzell run for 11 yds to the Lvile 26 VIRGINIA Penalty, Offensive holding (Miles Gooch) to the Lvile 36Similar
Q3 5:17
1ST & 9
OPP 36
0
74.3%
Greyson Lambert pass incomplete, broken up by Dominique BrownSimilar
Q3 5:17
2ND & 9
OPP 36
-10
74.2%
VIRGINIA Penalty, Offensive holding (Sadiq Olanrewaju) to the Lvile 46Similar
Q3 5:17
2ND & 19
OPP 46
+2
73.3%
Kevin Parks run for 2 yds to the Lvile 44Similar
Q3 5:17
3RD & 17
OPP 44
+14
72.0%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Doni Dowling for 14 yds to the Lvile 30Similar
Q3 2:56
4TH & 3
OPP 30
+47
83.9%
Ian Frye 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 0:0019% → 18%
Q3 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
80.8%
Reggie Bonnafon pass complete to L.J. Scott for no gain to the Lvile 25Similar
Q3 2:56
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
81.0%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, false start (Ryan Mack) to the Lvile 20Similar
Q3 2:56
2ND & 15
OWN 20
0
81.2%
Reggie Bonnafon pass incomplete to James QuickSimilar
Q3 2:56
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+4
81.5%
Reggie Bonnafon pass complete to L.J. Scott for 4 yds to the Lvile 24Similar
Q3 2:56
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+6
81.8%
Ryan Johnson punt for 45 yds , Khalek Shepherd returns for 6 yds to the Virg 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 24POSSESSION (FOR OT DRIVES)
1 play · 1 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q3 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
86.5%
Kevin Parks run for 1 yd to the Virg 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 25PUNT
3 plays · -8 yds · 0:0089% → 87%
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 38
-8
89.3%
Greyson Lambert sacked by Lorenzo Mauldin for a loss of 8 yards to the Virg 30Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 17
OWN 30
0
87.8%
Greyson Lambert pass incomplete to Kevin Parks, broken up by Lorenzo MauldinSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 17
OWN 30
+15
87.2%
Alec Vozenilek punt for 41 yds , James Quick returns for 15 yds to the Lvile 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 26TD
10 plays · 56 yds · 2:4917% → 40%
Q4 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
83.5%
Will Gardner pass complete to Michaelee Harris for 9 yds to the Virg 47Similar
Q4 13:59
2ND & 1
OPP 47
0
82.7%
Will Gardner pass incomplete to Michaelee Harris, broken up by Daquan RomeroSimilar
Q4 13:59
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+28
83.1%
Will Gardner pass complete to Keith Towbridge for 28 yds to the Virg 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:02
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
81.8%
Will Gardner pass complete to Dominique Brown for 2 yds to the Virg 17Similar
Q4 13:02
2ND & 8
OPP 17
0
81.8%
Dominique Brown run for no gain to the Virg 17Similar
Q4 13:02
3RD & 8
OPP 17
+6
83.3%
VIRGINIA Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Henry Coley) to the Virg 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:02
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
81.8%
Will Gardner pass incomplete, broken up by Max VallesSimilar
Q4 13:02
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+5
81.8%
Will Gardner pass complete to Eli Rogers for 5 yds to the Virg 6Similar
Q4 11:10
3RD & 5
OPP 6
+6
60.3%
Dominique Brown run for 6 yds for a TD, (John Wallace KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 27PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 0:0078% → 75%
Q4 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
78.0%
Greyson Lambert run for 2 yds to the Virg 27Similar
Q4 11:10
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
78.0%
Greyson Lambert pass incomplete to Doni DowlingSimilar
Q4 11:10
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-9
76.4%
Greyson Lambert sacked by Trumaine Washington for a loss of 9 yards to the Virg 18Similar
Q4 11:10
4TH & 17
OWN 18
+22
75.0%
Alec Vozenilek punt for 46 yds , James Quick returns for 22 yds to the Lvile 40 LOUISVILLE Penalty, illegal block (Matt Milton) to the Lvile 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 28TD
10 plays · 52 yds · 2:4235% → 71%
Q4 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
64.7%
Will Gardner pass incomplete to Gerald Christian, broken up by Henry ColeySimilar
Q4 9:41
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+19
66.1%
Will Gardner pass complete to Gerald Christian for 19 yds to the Virg 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:41
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+12
61.2%
Dominique Brown run for 12 yds to the Virg 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:41
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
60.3%
Dominique Brown run for 2 yds to the Virg 19Similar
Q4 9:41
2ND & 8
OPP 19
+7
60.3%
Will Gardner pass complete to Gerald Christian for 7 yds to the Virg 12Similar
Q4 9:41
3RD & 1
OPP 12
+3
62.7%
Dominique Brown run for 3 yds to the Virg 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
60.3%
Will Gardner pass incomplete to Dominique BrownSimilar
Q4 9:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
60.3%
Will Gardner pass incomplete to James Quick, broken up by Max VallesSimilar
Q4 9:41
3RD & 0
OPP 9
+5
60.8%
VIRGINIA Penalty, roughing passer (Henry Coley) to the Virg 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
29.1%
Will Gardner pass complete to James Quick for 4 yds for a TD, (John Wallace KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 29PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 0:0044% → 42%
Q4 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
44.2%
Darius Jennings run for 5 yds to the Virg 26Similar
Q4 6:59
2ND & 5
OWN 26
0
44.8%
Greyson Lambert pass incomplete to Darius Jennings, broken up by B.J. DuboseSimilar
Q4 6:59
3RD & 5
OWN 26
+11
42.5%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Kyle Dockins for 11 yds to the Virg 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
46.3%
Darius Jennings run for 2 yds to the Virg 39Similar
Q4 6:59
2ND & 8
OWN 39
0
49.1%
Greyson Lambert pass incomplete to Kevin ParksSimilar
Q4 6:59
3RD & 8
OWN 39
0
44.6%
Greyson Lambert pass incomplete to Andre LevroneSimilar
Q4 6:59
4TH & 8
OWN 39
0
41.7%
Alec Vozenilek punt for 36 yds , James Quick returns for no gain to the Lvile 25 James Quick fumbled, recovered by Virg Kelvin RaineySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 30FG
8 plays · 0 yds · 1:2454% → 75%
Q4 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-5
54.0%
VIRGINIA Penalty, false start (Conner Davis) to the Lvile 30Similar
Q4 5:06
1ST & 15
OPP 30
+7
52.9%
Kevin Parks run for 7 yds to the Lvile 23Similar
Q4 5:06
2ND & 8
OPP 23
-5
54.0%
VIRGINIA Penalty, false start (Sadiq Olanrewaju) to the Lvile 28Similar
Q4 5:06
2ND & 13
OPP 28
-2
52.6%
Greyson Lambert run for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 30Similar
Q4 3:57
3RD & 15
OPP 30
+5
47.8%
Kevin Parks run for 5 yds to the Lvile 25Similar
Q4 3:42
4TH & 10
OPP 25
+42
75.4%
Ian Frye 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 31PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 0:0031% → 27%
Q4 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
68.7%
Will Gardner pass incomplete to Gerald Christian, broken up by Max VallesSimilar
Q4 3:42
2ND & 10
OWN 13
-10
69.1%
Will Gardner sacked by Eli Harold for a loss of 10 yards to the Lvile 3Similar
Q4 3:42
3RD & 20
OWN 3
0
72.1%
Will Gardner pass incomplete to Eli RogersSimilar
Q4 3:42
4TH & 20
OWN 3
+9
73.1%
Ryan Johnson punt for 53 yds , Khalek Shepherd returns for 9 yds to the Lvile 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 32END OF GAME
6 plays · 25 yds · 1:3281% → 91%
Q4 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+14
81.2%
Taquan Mizzell run for 14 yds to the Lvile 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
82.9%
Kevin Parks run for 4 yds to the Lvile 29Similar
Q4 2:38
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+4
82.9%
Kevin Parks run for 4 yds to the Lvile 25Similar
Q4 1:06
3RD & 2
OPP 25
+4
89.1%
Kevin Parks run for 4 yds to the Lvile 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-1
90.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 6:59
Will Gardner pass complete to James Quick for 4 yds for a TD, (John Wallace KICK)
-31.7
FG · Q4 3:42
Ian Frye 42 yd FG GOOD
+23.7
TD · Q4 11:10
Dominique Brown run for 6 yds for a TD, (John Wallace KICK)
-21.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com