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MUR

Murray State 21 at Louisville 66

LOU
2014 · Week 2 · Sep 6, 2014 · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
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Win probability · LOU
modelLOU aheadMUR aheadconfidence bandkey playLOU scoreMUR score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 9:26 · Zach Bogard punt for 31 yds , Michaelee Harris returns for a loss of 8 yards to the Lvile 46
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+49.0+24.50−24.5−49.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 116Pregame prior+31.8Home team on offense+31.9Score differential+26.2Blowout margin+14.4Garbage-time factor+5.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 6:17: CJ Bennett pass complete to Janawski Davis for 57 yds for a TD, (Carson Greifenkamp KICK) — MUR win probability +0.3 pts (now 2%) (top driver: MUR has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 4:18: L.J. Scott run for 1 yd for a TD, (John Wallace KICK) — LOU win probability +0.3 pts (now 98%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 14:01: Will Gardner pass complete to Gerald Christian for 1 yd for a TD, (John Wallace KICK) — LOU win probability +0.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 10:58: Reggie Bonnafon run for 8 yds for a TD, (John Wallace KICK) — LOU win probability +0.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 5:17: Reggie Bonnafon pass complete to Michaelee Harris for 27 yds for a TD, (John Wallace KICK) — LOU win probability +0.2 pts (now 100%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LOU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8MUR made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00MUR 4th & 8 at MUR 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.7%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:31LOU 4th & 1 at LOU 18, tied
    Close callPunted · 98.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.1%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:50MUR 4th & 11 at MUR 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.0%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:39LOU 4th & 1 at MUR 6, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.5%
    69% to convert
    Field goal
    97.3%−0.2
    91% to make
    Punt
    96.8%−0.6
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:18MUR 4th & 9 at MUR 31, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.2%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:01MUR 4th & 12 at MUR 25, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.6%−0.1
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:58MUR 4th & 10 at MUR 30, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.8%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:20MUR 4th & 9 at LOU 40, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    0.3%−<0.1
    34% to make
    Punt
    0.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:12LOU 4th & 3 at MUR 42, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    99.4%−0.1
    30% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:22LOU 4th & 16 at MUR 28, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.5%−0.1
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.6%
    60% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.3
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:26MUR 4th & 14 at MUR 15, down 45
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:19LOU 4th & 4 at MUR 17, up 45
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.8%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−<0.1
    80% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.4
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:13LOU 4th & 4 at LOU 31, up 45
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:24MUR 4th & 6 at LOU 44, down 45
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%−<0.1
    27% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:22LOU 4th & 5 at MUR 37, up 45
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    99.9%−0.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    99.9%−0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:22LOU 4th & 9 at MUR 26, up 45
    Close callWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    99.9%
    64% to make
    Punt
    99.6%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LOU made the numbers' call on 9 of 9MUR made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 9:04LOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:24LOU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 6:17MUR Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 4:18LOU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 14:01LOU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 10:58LOU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 5:17LOU Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 9:26LOU Touchdown, up 44 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 3:59LOU Touchdown, up 51 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 2:13MUR Touchdown, down 46 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 13:23MUR Touchdown, down 39 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 7:23LOU Touchdown, up 44 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MURDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
98.8%
Pokey Harris run for no gain to the MurrS 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+2
98.8%
Pokey Harris run for 2 yds to the MurrS 32Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 32
0
98.8%
CJ Bennett pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 32
0
98.8%
Zach Bogard punt for 59 yds, downed at the Lvile 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q1 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
98.6%
Will Gardner pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 13:31
2ND & 10
OWN 9
-4
98.6%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, false start (N/A) to the Lvile 5Similar
Q1 13:31
2ND & 14
OWN 5
+5
98.6%
Will Gardner pass complete to James Quick for 5 yds to the Lvile 10Similar
Q1 13:31
3RD & 9
OWN 10
+8
98.6%
Will Gardner pass complete to Eli Rogers for 8 yds to the Lvile 18Similar
Q1 13:31
4TH & 1
OWN 18
+12
98.6%
Ryan Johnson punt for 38 yds , Janawski Davis returns for 12 yds to the MurrS 30 MURRAY ST Penalty, illegal block (Jonathan Jackson) to the MurrS 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q1 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-1
98.5%
CJ Bennett pass complete to Janawski Davis for a loss of 1 yard to the MurrS 45Similar
Q1 11:50
2ND & 11
OWN 45
+3
98.5%
Marcus Holliday run for 3 yds to the MurrS 48Similar
Q1 11:50
3RD & 8
OWN 48
-3
98.5%
CJ Bennett pass complete to Jeremy Harness for a loss of 3 yards to the MurrS 45Similar
Q1 11:50
4TH & 11
OWN 45
+5
98.5%
Zach Bogard punt for 3 yds , Matt Milton returns for 5 yds to the MurrS 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 4TD
3 plays · 43 yds · 1:1198% → 98%
Q1 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-2
98.4%
DeAngelo Brown run for a loss of 2 yards to the MurrS 45Similar
Q1 10:15
2ND & 12
OPP 45
+33
98.3%
DeAngelo Brown run for 33 yds to the MurrS 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:04
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
98.4%
Will Gardner pass complete to Kai De La Cruz for 12 yds for a TD, (John Wallace KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 5INT
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q1 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
98.3%
Roman Clay run for 1 yd to the MurrS 26Similar
Q1 9:04
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
98.3%
CJ Bennett pass intercepted Charles Gaines return for no gain to the MurrS 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 6TD
4 plays · 28 yds · 1:0798% → 99%
Q1 8:31
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+15
98.3%
Gardner, W. deep pass incomplete to Quick, J., PENALTY MUR pass interference (WADE, D'Montre) 15 yards to the MUR13, 1ST DOWN LOU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:31
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+8
98.3%
Will Gardner pass complete to Eli Rogers for 8 yds to the MurrS 5Similar
Q1 8:31
2ND & 2
OPP 5
+3
98.3%
DeAngelo Brown run for 3 yds to the MurrS 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
98.5%
Dominique Brown 2 Yd Run (John Wallace Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 7TD
5 plays · 70 yds · 1:072% → 2%
Q1 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
98.4%
CJ Bennett pass complete to Jesse Blackburn for 11 yds to the MurrS 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
98.4%
CJ Bennett pass incomplete to Janawski DavisSimilar
Q1 7:24
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+2
98.4%
Pokey Harris run for 2 yds to the MurrS 43Similar
Q1 6:17
3RD & 8
OWN 43
+57
98.1%
CJ Bennett pass complete to Janawski Davis for 57 yds for a TD, (Carson Greifenkamp KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 8TD
8 plays · 83 yds · 1:5998% → 98%
Q1 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+68
98.1%
L.J. Scott run for 68 yds to the MurrS 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
98.1%
Will Gardner pass incomplete to Eli RogersSimilar
Q1 5:39
2ND & 10
OPP 15
0
98.1%
Will Gardner pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 5:39
3RD & 10
OPP 15
+9
98.1%
Will Gardner pass complete to James Quick for 9 yds to the MurrS 6Similar
Q1 5:39
4TH & 1
OPP 6
+5
98.1%
L.J. Scott run for 5 yds to the MurrS 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.4%
L.J. Scott run for 1 yd for a TD, (John Wallace KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q1 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
98.2%
CJ Bennett pass incomplete to Janawski DavisSimilar
Q1 4:18
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+1
98.3%
Marcus Holliday run for 1 yd to the MurrS 31Similar
Q1 4:18
3RD & 9
OWN 31
0
98.3%
CJ Bennett pass incomplete to Janawski DavisSimilar
Q1 4:18
4TH & 9
OWN 31
+1
98.3%
Zach Bogard punt for 43 yds , Kai De La Cruz returns for 1 yd to the Lvile 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 10TD
9 plays · 73 yds · 4:2998% → 99%
Q1 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
98.3%
Will Gardner pass complete to DeAngelo Brown for 5 yds to the Lvile 32Similar
Q1 3:30
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+2
98.3%
L.J. Scott run for 2 yds to the Lvile 34Similar
Q1 3:30
3RD & 3
OWN 34
+9
98.3%
Will Gardner pass complete to Kai De La Cruz for 9 yds to the Lvile 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+34
98.3%
Will Gardner pass complete to Matt Milton for 34 yds to the MurrS 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
98.4%
L.J. Scott run for 3 yds to the MurrS 20Similar
Q1 3:30
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+4
98.4%
Will Gardner pass complete to Keith Towbridge for 4 yds to the MurrS 16Similar
Q1 3:30
3RD & 3
OPP 16
+11
98.3%
L.J. Scott run for 11 yds to the MurrS 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
98.2%
DeAngelo Brown run for 4 yds to the MurrS 1Similar
Q2 14:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.8%
Will Gardner pass complete to Gerald Christian for 1 yd for a TD, (John Wallace KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
98.7%
Roman Clay run for 5 yds to the MurrS 32Similar
Q2 14:01
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+3
98.7%
CJ Bennett run for 3 yds to the MurrS 35Similar
Q2 14:01
3RD & 2
OWN 35
-5
98.7%
MURRAY ST Penalty, false start (N/A) to the MurrS 30Similar
Q2 14:01
3RD & 7
OWN 30
-5
98.7%
KD Humphries run for a loss of 5 yards to the MurrS 25Similar
Q2 14:01
4TH & 12
OWN 25
0
98.7%
Zach Bogard punt for 23 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MurrS 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 12TD
3 plays · 48 yds · 1:0799% → 99%
Q2 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+33
98.8%
Reggie Bonnafon pass complete to Kai De La Cruz for 18 yds to the MurrS 30 for a 1ST down MURRAY ST Penalty, personal foul (Anthony Hayes) to the MurrS 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+7
98.8%
L.J. Scott run for 7 yds to the MurrS 8Similar
Q2 10:58
2ND & 3
OPP 8
+8
99.4%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 8 yds for a TD, (John Wallace KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
99.3%
CJ Bennett pass incomplete to Janawski Davis, broken up by Andrew JohnsonSimilar
Q2 10:58
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
99.4%
CJ Bennett pass complete to Jesse Blackburn for no gain to the MurrS 30Similar
Q2 10:58
3RD & 10
OWN 30
0
99.4%
CJ Bennett pass incomplete to Jesse BlackburnSimilar
Q2 10:58
4TH & 10
OWN 30
0
99.4%
Zach Bogard punt for 37 yds, downed at the Lvile 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 14TD
9 plays · 67 yds · 4:3099% → 100%
Q2 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
99.4%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 2 yds to the Lvile 35Similar
Q2 9:47
2ND & 8
OWN 35
0
99.4%
Reggie Bonnafon pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 9:47
3RD & 8
OWN 35
+8
99.4%
L.J. Scott run for 8 yds to the Lvile 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+23
99.4%
L.J. Scott run for 23 yds to the MurrS 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:47
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
99.4%
L.J. Scott run for 4 yds to the MurrS 30Similar
Q2 9:47
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+8
99.4%
Reggie Bonnafon pass complete to L.J. Scott for 8 yds to the MurrS 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:47
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
99.4%
Brandon Radcliff run for 2 yds to the MurrS 20Similar
Q2 9:47
2ND & 8
OPP 20
-7
99.4%
Reggie Bonnafon sacked by Travis Taylor for a loss of 7 yards to the MurrS 27Similar
Q2 5:17
3RD & 15
OPP 27
+27
99.6%
Reggie Bonnafon pass complete to Michaelee Harris for 27 yds for a TD, (John Wallace KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 15DOWNS
11 plays · 35 yds · 2:570% → 0%
Q2 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.7%
CJ Bennett pass incomplete to Jeremy HarnessSimilar
Q2 5:17
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
99.7%
CJ Bennett pass complete to Jesse Blackburn for 7 yds to the MurrS 32Similar
Q2 5:17
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+15
99.7%
CJ Bennett pass complete to Jesse Blackburn for 15 yds to the MurrS 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
99.7%
Marcus Holliday run for 5 yds to the Lvile 48Similar
Q2 5:17
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+7
99.6%
CJ Bennett pass complete to Jesse Blackburn for 7 yds to the Lvile 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:17
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
99.7%
CJ Bennett pass incomplete to Marcus HollidaySimilar
Q2 5:17
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+1
99.7%
CJ Bennett run for 1 yd to the Lvile 40Similar
Q2 5:17
3RD & 9
OPP 40
0
99.7%
CJ Bennett pass incomplete to Jesse Blackburn, broken up by James BurgessSimilar
Q2 2:20
4TH & 9
OPP 40
0
99.8%
CJ Bennett pass incomplete to Jalen HarringtonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 16FG
12 plays · 32 yds · 1:50100% → 100%
Q2 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
99.7%
Will Gardner pass incomplete to L.J. ScottSimilar
Q2 2:12
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
99.7%
Will Gardner pass incomplete to Kai De La CruzSimilar
Q2 2:12
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+11
99.7%
Will Gardner pass complete to Gerald Christian for 11 yds to the MurrS 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:12
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
99.7%
Will Gardner pass incomplete to James QuickSimilar
Q2 2:12
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
99.7%
Will Gardner pass incomplete to L.J. ScottSimilar
Q2 2:12
3RD & 10
OPP 49
+7
99.7%
Will Gardner pass complete to Eli Rogers for 7 yds to the MurrS 42Similar
Q2 2:12
4TH & 3
OPP 42
+20
99.6%
Will Gardner pass complete to Gerald Christian for 20 yds to the MurrS 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:12
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
99.7%
Will Gardner pass incomplete to Gerald Christian, broken up by Dylan BooneSimilar
Q2 2:12
2ND & 10
OPP 22
-6
99.7%
L.J. Scott run for a loss of 6 yards to the MurrS 28Similar
Q2 0:32
3RD & 16
OPP 28
0
99.7%
Will Gardner pass incomplete to Keith TowbridgeSimilar
Q2 0:22
4TH & 16
OPP 28
+45
99.8%
John Wallace 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 17END OF HALF
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.8%
Roman Clay run for no gain to the MurrS 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 18TD
12 plays · 89 yds · 5:34100% → 100%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
99.8%
Reggie Bonnafon pass incomplete to Keith TowbridgeSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+7
99.8%
Corvin Lamb run for 7 yds to the Lvile 18Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 18
+15
99.8%
Reggie Bonnafon pass complete to Eli Rogers for 15 yds to the Lvile 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
99.8%
Corvin Lamb run for 1 yd to the Lvile 34Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+13
99.8%
Reggie Bonnafon pass complete to Michaelee Harris for 13 yds to the Lvile 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
99.8%
Brandon Radcliff run for no gain to the Lvile 47Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 47
-5
99.8%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, false start (N/A) to the Lvile 42Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 42
+14
99.8%
Reggie Bonnafon pass complete to Kai De La Cruz for 14 yds to the MurrS 44Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+25
99.8%
Brandon Radcliff run for 25 yds to the MurrS 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
99.8%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 3 yds to the MurrS 16Similar
Q3 9:26
2ND & 7
OPP 16
+16
99.8%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 16 yds for a TD, (John Wallace KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
99.9%
Roman Clay run for 2 yds to the MurrS 21Similar
Q3 9:26
2ND & 8
OWN 21
0
99.9%
KD Humphries pass incomplete to Jesse BlackburnSimilar
Q3 9:26
3RD & 8
OWN 21
-6
99.9%
KD Humphries sacked by B.J. Dubose for a loss of 6 yards to the MurrS 15Similar
Q3 9:26
4TH & 14
OWN 15
-8
99.9%
Zach Bogard punt for 31 yds , Michaelee Harris returns for a loss of 8 yards to the Lvile 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 20TD
10 plays · 54 yds · 5:27100% → 100%
Q3 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
99.8%
Brandon Radcliff run for 6 yds to the MurrS 48Similar
Q3 9:26
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+1
99.8%
Brandon Radcliff run for 1 yd to the MurrS 47Similar
Q3 9:26
3RD & 3
OPP 47
+9
99.8%
Brandon Radcliff run for 9 yds to the MurrS 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:26
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+15
99.8%
Bonnafon, R. deep pass incomplete to Bagley, J., PENALTY MUR pass interference (WADE, D'Montre) 15 yards to the MUR23, 1ST DOWN LOU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:26
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-1
99.8%
Brandon Radcliff run for a loss of 1 yard to the MurrS 24Similar
Q3 5:19
2ND & 11
OPP 24
0
99.9%
Reggie Bonnafon pass incomplete to Michaelee HarrisSimilar
Q3 5:19
3RD & 11
OPP 24
+7
99.9%
Reggie Bonnafon pass complete to Eli Rogers for 7 yds to the MurrS 17Similar
Q3 5:19
4TH & 4
OPP 17
+10
99.9%
Reggie Bonnafon pass complete to Keith Towbridge for 10 yds to the MurrS 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
99.9%
Brandon Radcliff run for 7 yds for a TD, (John Wallace KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 21TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 1:460% → 0%
Q3 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.9%
KD Humphries pass complete to Jeremy Harness for 4 yds to the MurrS 29Similar
Q3 3:59
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+10
99.9%
KD Humphries pass complete to Jeremy Harness for 10 yds to the MurrS 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
99.9%
KD Humphries pass complete to Janawski Davis for 8 yds to the MurrS 47Similar
Q3 3:59
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+13
99.9%
KD Humphries pass complete to Jeremy Harness for 13 yds to the Lvile 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:59
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
99.9%
KD Humphries run for 5 yds to the Lvile 35Similar
Q3 3:59
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+6
99.9%
KD Humphries pass complete to Jeremy Harness for 6 yds to the Lvile 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:59
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+20
99.9%
KD Humphries pass complete to Nevar Griffin for 20 yds to the Lvile 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
99.9%
KD Humphries pass complete to Janawski Davis for 9 yds for a TD, (Carson Greifenkamp KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.9%
Corvin Lamb run for 3 yds to the Lvile 28Similar
Q3 2:13
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
99.9%
Brett Nelson pass incomplete to Keith Towbridge, broken up by St. Pierre AnilusSimilar
Q3 2:13
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+3
99.9%
Corvin Lamb run for 3 yds to the Lvile 31Similar
Q3 2:13
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
99.9%
Joshua Appleby punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Janawski Davis at the MurrS 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 23TD
9 plays · 74 yds · 2:330% → 0%
Q3 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
99.9%
KD Humphries pass incomplete to Janawski Davis, broken up by Nick Dawson-BrentsSimilar
Q3 0:56
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+7
99.9%
KD Humphries run for 7 yds to the MurrS 33Similar
Q3 0:56
3RD & 3
OWN 33
+4
99.9%
KD Humphries pass complete to Jeremy Harness for 4 yds to the MurrS 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+12
99.9%
KD Humphries pass complete to Nevar Griffin for 12 yds to the MurrS 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+17
99.9%
KD Humphries pass complete to Jesse Blackburn for 17 yds to the Lvile 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
99.9%
KD Humphries pass incomplete to Paul RiceSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+6
99.9%
KD Humphries run for 6 yds to the Lvile 28Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 28
+12
99.9%
KD Humphries pass complete to Nevar Griffin for 12 yds to the Lvile 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:23
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
99.9%
KD Humphries pass complete to Jeremy Harness for 16 yds for a TD, (Carson Greifenkamp KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 24TD
11 plays · 71 yds · 6:00100% → 100%
Q4 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+9
99.9%
Brett Nelson pass complete to Chris Miele for 9 yds to the Lvile 38Similar
Q4 13:23
2ND & 1
OWN 38
+3
99.9%
Brandon Radcliff run for 3 yds to the Lvile 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+15
99.9%
Brandon Radcliff run for 15 yds to the MurrS 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:23
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-1
99.9%
Brandon Radcliff run for a loss of 1 yard to the MurrS 45Similar
Q4 13:23
2ND & 11
OPP 45
+8
99.9%
Brett Nelson pass complete to Javonte Bagley for 8 yds to the MurrS 37Similar
Q4 13:23
3RD & 3
OPP 37
+6
99.9%
Brett Nelson pass complete to Charles Standberry for 6 yds to the MurrS 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:23
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
99.9%
Brandon Radcliff run for 6 yds to the MurrS 25Similar
Q4 13:23
2ND & 4
OPP 25
+3
99.9%
Brandon Radcliff run for 3 yds to the MurrS 22 Brandon Radcliff fumbled, forced by Troy Marshall, recovered by Lvile Brandon RadcliffSimilar
Q4 13:23
3RD & 1
OPP 22
+17
99.9%
Brandon Radcliff run for 17 yds to the MurrS 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.9%
Brandon Radcliff run for 5 yds for a TD, (John Wallace KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 25DOWNS
7 plays · 31 yds · 0:590% → 0%
Q4 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+27
100.0%
KD Humphries pass complete to Janawski Davis for 27 yds to the Lvile 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:23
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
100.0%
Roman Clay run for 4 yds to the Lvile 44Similar
Q4 7:23
2ND & 6
OPP 44
0
99.9%
KD Humphries pass incomplete to Janawski DavisSimilar
Q4 7:23
3RD & 6
OPP 44
0
100.0%
KD Humphries pass incomplete to Nevar Griffin, broken up by Richard BenjaminSimilar
Q4 6:24
4TH & 6
OPP 44
0
100.0%
KD Humphries pass incomplete to Jeremy HarnessSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 26DOWNS
11 plays · 36 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
100.0%
D Skinner run for 1 yd to the Lvile 46Similar
Q4 6:22
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+2
100.0%
D Skinner run for 2 yds to the Lvile 48Similar
Q4 6:22
3RD & 7
OWN 48
+10
100.0%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to Javonte Bagley for 10 yds to the MurrS 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:22
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
100.0%
D Skinner run for 3 yds to the MurrS 39Similar
Q4 6:22
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+2
100.0%
D Skinner run for 2 yds to the MurrS 37Similar
Q4 6:22
3RD & 5
OPP 37
0
100.0%
Kyle Bolin pass incomplete to Charles StandberrySimilar
Q4 6:22
4TH & 5
OPP 37
+10
100.0%
D Skinner run for 10 yds to the MurrS 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:22
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
100.0%
D Skinner run for 2 yds to the MurrS 25Similar
Q4 6:22
2ND & 8
OPP 25
0
100.0%
D Skinner run for no gain to the MurrS 25Similar
Q4 6:22
3RD & 8
OPP 25
-1
100.0%
Kyle Bolin run for a loss of 1 yard to the MurrS 26Similar
Q4 6:22
4TH & 9
OPP 26
+7
100.0%
D Skinner run for 7 yds to the MurrS 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 27END OF GAME
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
100.0%
Nick Taylor run for 5 yds to the MurrS 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 14:01
Will Gardner pass complete to Gerald Christian for 1 yd for a TD, (John Wallace KICK)
+0.6
TD · Q2 10:58
Reggie Bonnafon run for 8 yds for a TD, (John Wallace KICK)
+0.5
TD · Q1 6:17
CJ Bennett pass complete to Janawski Davis for 57 yds for a TD, (Carson Greifenkamp KICK)
-0.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com