2014 · Week 14 · Nov 29, 2014 · Sanford Stadium
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Win probability · UGA
modelUGA aheadGT aheadconfidence bandkey playUGA scoreGT score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 13:00 · Marshall Morgan run for 28 yds to the GTech 3 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q3 2:13: Zach Laskey 4 Yd Run (Harrison Butker Kick) — GT win probability +18.2 pts (now 42%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
- TD · Q4 4:22: Zach Laskey 8 Yd Run (Harrison Butker Kick) — GT win probability +42.4 pts (now 79%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
- TD · Q4 0:18: Malcolm Mitchell 3 Yd pass from Hutson Mason (Marshall Morgan Kick) — UGA win probability +65.8 pts (now 94%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- FG · Q4 0:00: Harrison Butker 53 Yd Field Goal — GT win probability +34.4 pts (now 61%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
- TD · OT 0:00: Zach Laskey run for 2 yds for a TD, (Harrison Butker PAT BLOCKED) — GT win probability +30.6 pts (now 90%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UGA made the numbers' call on 4 of 7GT made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
- Q1 10:57UGA 4th & 1 at GT 1, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 82.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call82.4%59% to convertField goal82.2%−0.294% to makePunt81.7%−0.7average punt
- Q1 7:48GT 4th & 8 at UGA 48, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.1% before the snapGo for it17.1%−0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call17.1%average punt
- Q1 4:41UGA 4th & 7 at UGA 35, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.4% before the snapGo for it82.4%−0.237% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call82.6%average punt
- Q1 2:26GT 4th & 13 at GT 33, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.3% before the snapGo for it17.0%−0.620% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call17.6%average punt
- Q2 7:54GT 4th & 4 at UGA 20, down 7Close callKicked a field goal · 18.8% before the snapGo for it18.7%47% to convertField goalTheir call18.6%−0.275% to makePunt15.1%−3.6average punt
- Q2 4:25UGA 4th & 1 at GT 27, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 82.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call82.4%71% to convertField goal81.4%−1.162% to makePunt78.8%−3.7average punt
- Q2 0:55GT 4th & 2 at UGA 37, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call20.3%57% to convertField goal19.8%−0.540% to makePunt18.7%−1.6average punt
- Q2 0:27GT 4th & 1 at UGA 25, down 7Close callWent for it · 20.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call20.6%−0.171% to convertField goal20.7%66% to makePunt17.0%−3.7average punt
- Q3 7:32GT 4th & 16 at GT 6, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.5% before the snapGo for it15.5%−2.713% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call18.2%average punt
- Q3 6:05UGA 4th & 6 at GT 32, up 7Close callKicked a field goal · 83.6% before the snapGo for it83.5%40% to convertField goalTheir call83.2%−0.251% to makePunt82.2%−1.2average punt
- Q4 13:00UGA 4th & 12 at GT 31, tiedNumbers favored field goal by 2.6 ptsWent for it · 63.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call60.6%−2.623% to convertField goal63.2%54% to makePunt60.4%−2.8average punt
- Q4 11:19UGA 4th & 2 at GT 2, tiedNumbers favored go for it by 4.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 65.5% before the snapGo for it65.7%48% to convertField goalTheir call61.4%−4.294% to makePunt44.2%−21.5average punt
- Q4 0:18UGA 4th & 3 at GT 3, down 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call42.7%44% to convertField goal12.3%−30.493% to makePunt10.7%−32.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UGA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3GT made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 10:57UGA Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call82.9%97% to makeGo for two82.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:08GT Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call25.5%97% to makeGo for two25.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 8:42UGA Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call79.7%97% to makeGo for two79.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 2:13GT Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call31.9%97% to makeGo for two31.7%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 4:22GT Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call64.9%97% to makeGo for two64.4%−0.545% to convert
- Q4 0:18UGA Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call82.3%97% to makeGo for two79.7%−2.645% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUGADrive 1TD11 plays · 75 yds · 3:3886% → 86%
Q1 14:10
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+24
86.2%
Hutson Mason pass complete to Nick Chubb for 24 yds to the GTech 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+13
86.1%
Hutson Mason pass complete to Malcolm Mitchell for 13 yds to the GTech 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-1
86.0%
Hutson Mason pass complete to Malcolm Mitchell for a loss of 1 yard to the GTech 21Similar
Q1 11:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
85.5%
Hutson Mason pass complete to Malcolm Mitchell for 3 yds to the GTech 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 2PUNT9 plays · 27 yds · 2:3714% → 14%
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+14
85.6%
Justin Thomas pass complete to DeAndre Smelter for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 3PUNT7 plays · 15 yds · 2:3486% → 85%
Q1 4:41
4TH & 7
OWN 35
0
85.0%
Collin Barber punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jamal Golden at the GTech 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 4PUNT7 plays · 9 yds · 1:4915% → 15%
Q1 2:26
4TH & 13
OWN 33
+1
85.1%
Ryan Rodwell punt for 46 yds , Isaiah McKenzie returns for 1 yd to the Geo 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 5FUMBLE5 plays · 76 yds · 1:1485% → 86%
Q1 1:30
2ND & 12
OWN 20
+14
84.7%
Hutson Mason pass complete to Malcolm Mitchell for 14 yds to the Geo 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
85.5%
Nick Chubb run for a loss of 1 yard to the GTech 3 Nick Chubb fumbled, forced by Isaiah Johnson, recovered by GTech Tyler MarcordesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 6MISSED FG16 plays · 77 yds · 7:3815% → 16%
Q1 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+15
84.6%
Thomas, Justin pass incomplete to Summers, Micheal, PENALTY GEORGIA roughing passer (Johnson, Toby) 15 yards to the GATECH18, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN GATECH. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+13
84.0%
Justin Thomas pass complete to DeAndre Smelter for 13 yds to the GTech 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:00
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+17
83.8%
Justin Thomas pass complete to DeAndre Smelter for 17 yds to the Geo 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:54
4TH & 4
OPP 20
+6
84.0%
Harrison Butker 37 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Ray Drew Damian Swann return for 6 yds to the Geo 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 7FUMBLE12 plays · 58 yds · 4:4686% → 86%
Q2 7:20
1ST & 15
OWN 46
+12
85.3%
Hutson Mason pass complete to Jonathon Rumph for 12 yds to the GTech 42Similar
Q2 6:20
3RD & 2
OPP 41
+5
85.5%
Hutson Mason pass complete to Jay Rome for 5 yds to the GTech 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-7
85.9%
Hutson Mason sacked by KeShun Freeman for a loss of 7 yards to the GTech 32Similar
Q2 3:15
2ND & 17
OPP 32
+18
85.2%
Hutson Mason pass complete to Jay Rome for 18 yds to the GTech 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:04
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+13
85.9%
Sony Michel run for 13 yds Sony Michel fumbled, forced by Quayshawn Nealy, recovered by GTech Isaiah JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 8TD16 plays · 80 yds · 2:4916% → 32%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 9END OF HALF2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 10FUMBLE RETURN TD14 plays · 91 yds · 5:3828% → 21%
Q3 11:50
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+6
68.3%
Synjyn Days run for 6 yds to the Geo 49 Synjyn Days fumbled, recovered by GTech Synjyn Days for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 11PUNT6 plays · -6 yds · 1:0318% → 17%
Q3 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-5
82.0%
GEORGIA TECH Penalty, False Start (Micheal Summers) to the GTech 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 12MISSED FG4 plays · 4 yds · 0:5586% → 85%
Q3 6:11
3RD & 6
OPP 32
0
85.8%
Hutson Mason pass incomplete to Michael Bennett GEORGIA Penalty, Illegal Formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 13TD8 plays · 63 yds · 3:2720% → 42%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 14FG17 plays · 73 yds · 5:3668% → 76%
Q3 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
67.8%
Hutson Mason pass complete to Nick Chubb for 11 yds to the Geo 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:10
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+16
66.2%
Hutson Mason pass complete to Jonathon Rumph for 16 yds to the GTech 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+17
71.1%
Hutson Mason pass complete to Malcolm Mitchell for 17 yds to the GTech 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:00
2ND & 11
OPP 30
+1
71.6%
Hutson Mason pass complete to Nick Chubb for 1 yd to the GTech 29Similar
Q4 13:20
3RD & 10
OPP 29
-2
69.6%
Hutson Mason sacked by Tremayne McNair for a loss of 2 yards to the GTech 31Similar
Q4 12:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
71.2%
Mason, Hutson pass incomplete to Blazevich, Jeb, PENALTY GATECH holding (Marcordes, Tyler) 2 yards to the GATECH1, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN GEORGIA. for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 15TD15 plays · 80 yds · 6:1827% → 79%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 16FUMBLE8 plays · -4 yds · 1:0480% → 86%
Q4 2:41
3RD & 12
OPP 17
-14
14.1%
Justin Thomas run for a loss of 14 yards to the Geo 31 Justin Thomas fumbled, recovered by Geo Amarlo HerreraSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 17TD13 plays · 69 yds · 2:1829% → 94%
Q4 2:28
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+19
27.8%
Hutson Mason pass complete to Chris Conley for 19 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+7
32.8%
Hutson Mason pass complete to Malcolm Mitchell for 7 yds to the GTech 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
30.8%
Hutson Mason pass complete to Jeb Blazevich for 6 yds to the GTech 31Similar
Q4 0:50
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+16
30.6%
Hutson Mason pass complete to Chris Conley for 16 yds to the GTech 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:18
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
94.3%
Malcolm Mitchell 3 Yd pass from Hutson Mason (Marshall Morgan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 18END OF GAME4 plays · 21 yds · 0:0420% → 61%
GTDrive 19TD5 plays · 25 yds · 0:0060% → 90%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 20Uncategorized5 plays · 16 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:18
Malcolm Mitchell 3 Yd pass from Hutson Mason (Marshall Morgan Kick)
+65.8
TD · Q4 4:22
Zach Laskey 8 Yd Run (Harrison Butker Kick)
-42.4
FG · Q4 0:00
Harrison Butker 53 Yd Field Goal
-34.4