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Georgia Tech 43 at North Carolina 48

UNC
2014 · Week 8 · Oct 18, 2014 · Kenan Stadium
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Win probability · UNC
modelUNC aheadGT aheadconfidence bandkey playUNC scoreGT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 8:13 · Ryan Rodwell punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Ryan Switzer at the NCaro 34
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+23.5+11.80−11.8−23.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 120Home team on offense+3.9Pregame prior+3.2Garbage-time factor+0.9Score differential+0.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.0Blowout margin+0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 8:13: Marquise Williams run for 13 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK) — UNC win probability +15.6 pts (now 72%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 14:50: Justin Thomas pass complete to DeAndre Smelter for 46 yds for a TD, (Harrison Butker KICK) — GT win probability +18.8 pts (now 38%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 8:00: Zach Laskey 14 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) — GT win probability +20.8 pts (now 38%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 3:07: DeAndre Smelter run for 75 yds for a TD, (Justin Thomas failed ) — GT win probability +33.5 pts (now 63%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:11: T.J. Logan 2 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) — UNC win probability +41.4 pts (now 93%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNC made the numbers' call on 3 of 5GT made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 15:00UNC 4th & 7 at UNC 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.6%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:42UNC 4th & 1 at GT 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    54.2%−0.8
    47% to make
    Punt
    53.9%−1.0
    average punt
  3. Q2 10:47GT 4th & 6 at UNC 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 43.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.1%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.2%
    88% to make
    Punt
    39.6%−3.6
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:13GT 4th & 10 at GT 46, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.0%−0.7
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:29UNC 4th & 1 at UNC 46, up 4
    Close callPunted · 63.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.9%−0.5
    average punt
  6. Q3 8:13GT 4th & 10 at GT 25, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.2%−1.8
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.0%
    average punt
  7. Q4 12:34UNC 4th & 6 at GT 36, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    70.4%−1.5
    42% to make
    Punt
    69.5%−2.4
    average punt
  8. Q4 7:53UNC 4th & 5 at GT 46, up 5
    Close callPunted · 81.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.1%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    78.1%−4.0
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    81.2%−0.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNC made the numbers' call on 7 of 7GT made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 5:47GT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:14UNC Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:13UNC Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:51UNC Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:26GT Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 12:00GT Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 8:13UNC Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 2:41UNC Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 14:50GT Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 12:34UNC Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 8:00GT Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    23.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    22.8%−0.9
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 0:11UNC Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    82.0%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    82.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNCDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
58.4%
Marquise Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
58.4%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 8 yds to the NCaro 33Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-5
58.4%
Marquise Williams run for 5 yds to the NCaro 38 NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive holding (Ryan Switzer) to the NCaro 28Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
58.4%
Marquise Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 28
-5
58.4%
Tommy Hibbard punt for 46 yds , Jamal Golden returns for a loss of 5 yards to the GTech 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 2FUMBLE
2 plays · 38 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
Q1 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+47
58.4%
Justin Thomas pass complete to Deon Hill for 47 yds to the NCaro 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:55
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-9
58.3%
Justin Thomas run for a loss of 9 yards to the NCaro 41 Justin Thomas fumbled, recovered by NCaro Norkeithus OtisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 3INT
4 plays · 19 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q1 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
58.5%
Romar Morris run for 3 yds to the NCaro 44Similar
Q1 13:55
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+10
58.6%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Jack Tabb for 10 yds to the GTech 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:55
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
58.6%
Marquise Williams run for 6 yds to the GTech 40Similar
Q1 13:55
2ND & 4
OPP 40
+2
58.6%
Marquise Williams pass intercepted Jamal Golden return for 2 yds to the GTech 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 4TD
13 plays · 70 yds · 6:1342% → 46%
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+13
58.5%
Charles Perkins run for 13 yds to the GTech 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
58.2%
Justin Thomas run for 9 yds to the NCaro 48Similar
Q1 12:00
2ND & 1
OPP 48
+1
58.1%
Zach Laskey run for 1 yd to the NCaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
58.2%
Zach Laskey run for 2 yds to the NCaro 45Similar
Q1 12:00
2ND & 8
OPP 45
-5
58.2%
Thomas, J. sideline pass complete to Waller, D. for 16 yards to the NC29 (Walker, B), PENALTY GT ineligible downfield on pass (Chamberlain, B.) 5 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:00
2ND & 13
50
0
58.3%
Justin Thomas pass incomplete to Zach LaskeySimilar
Q1 12:00
3RD & 13
50
+25
58.5%
Justin Thomas pass complete to Tony Zenon for 25 yds to the NCaro 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
58.1%
Zach Laskey run for 1 yd to the NCaro 24Similar
Q1 12:00
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+7
58.1%
Broderick Snoddy run for 7 yds to the NCaro 17Similar
Q1 12:00
3RD & 2
OPP 17
+2
58.2%
Justin Thomas run for 2 yds to the NCaro 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-2
58.1%
Justin Thomas sacked by Junior Gnonkonde for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 17Similar
Q1 12:00
2ND & 12
OPP 17
+14
58.1%
Charles Perkins run for 14 yds to the NCaro 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
53.8%
Zach Laskey run for 3 yds for a TD, (Harrison Butker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 5TD
15 plays · 76 yds · 4:2855% → 61%
Q1 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
55.0%
T.J. Logan run for 5 yds to the NCaro 29Similar
Q1 5:42
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+14
55.2%
T.J. Logan run for 14 yds to the NCaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
55.7%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Bug Howard for 8 yds to the GTech 49Similar
Q1 5:42
2ND & 2
OPP 49
+6
56.1%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 6 yds to the GTech 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:42
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-5
56.1%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the GTech 48Similar
Q1 5:42
1ST & 15
OPP 48
+13
55.6%
T.J. Logan run for 13 yds to the GTech 35Similar
Q1 5:42
2ND & 2
OPP 35
+1
56.5%
Romar Morris run for 1 yd to the GTech 34Similar
Q1 5:42
3RD & 1
OPP 34
0
56.1%
Marquise Williams run for no gain to the GTech 34Similar
Q1 5:42
4TH & 1
OPP 34
+3
55.7%
T.J. Logan run for 3 yds to the GTech 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:42
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
56.5%
Marquise Williams run for 5 yds to the GTech 26Similar
Q1 5:42
2ND & 5
OPP 26
+7
56.5%
T.J. Logan run for 7 yds to the GTech 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:42
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-2
56.5%
T.J. Logan run for a loss of 2 yards to the GTech 21Similar
Q1 5:42
2ND & 12
OPP 21
+13
56.5%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Bug Howard for 13 yds to the GTech 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
60.6%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Bug Howard for 8 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 6FG
13 plays · 63 yds · 5:2142% → 45%
Q1 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+12
57.7%
Deon Hill run for 12 yds to the GTech 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+12
57.0%
Justin Thomas pass complete to DeAndre Smelter for 12 yds to the NCaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
56.2%
Zach Laskey run for 9 yds to the NCaro 40Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 40
+15
56.0%
Charles Perkins run for 15 yds to the NCaro 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
55.7%
Zach Laskey run for 7 yds to the NCaro 18Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 18
+4
55.7%
Justin Thomas run for 4 yds to the NCaro 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
55.7%
Zach Laskey run for 1 yd to the NCaro 13Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 13
+7
55.7%
Zach Laskey run for 7 yds to the NCaro 6Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 6
+1
56.2%
Justin Thomas run for 1 yd to the NCaro 5Similar
Q2 10:52
4TH & 1
OPP 5
-5
57.2%
GEORGIA TECH Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NCaro 10Similar
Q2 10:47
4TH & 6
OPP 10
+27
55.5%
Harrison Butker 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 7TD
5 plays · 79 yds · 1:3057% → 63%
Q2 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
56.5%
T.J. Logan run for 5 yds to the NCaro 26Similar
Q2 10:43
2ND & 5
OWN 26
0
56.9%
Austin Proehl run for no gain to the NCaro 26Similar
Q2 10:43
3RD & 5
OWN 26
+6
56.1%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 6 yds to the NCaro 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+68
62.5%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 68 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 8PUNT
9 plays · 21 yds · 0:0038% → 37%
Q2 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
62.5%
Justin Thomas pass complete to Zach Laskey for 5 yds to the GTech 30Similar
Q2 9:13
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
62.0%
Zach Laskey run for 6 yds to the GTech 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
61.9%
Zach Laskey run for 5 yds to the GTech 41Similar
Q2 9:13
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+5
60.9%
Justin Thomas run for 5 yds to the GTech 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
60.8%
Justin Thomas pass incomplete to DeAndre SmelterSimilar
Q2 9:13
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
61.2%
Justin Thomas run for no gain to the GTech 46Similar
Q2 9:13
3RD & 10
OWN 46
0
61.9%
Justin Thomas pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:13
4TH & 10
OWN 46
0
63.3%
Ryan Rodwell punt for 19 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCaro 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 9TD
9 plays · 65 yds · 3:1864% → 77%
Q2 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
63.9%
Marquise Williams run for 7 yds to the NCaro 42Similar
Q2 6:09
2ND & 3
OWN 42
0
65.3%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Jack TabbSimilar
Q2 6:09
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+5
64.5%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Mack Hollins for 5 yds to the NCaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
65.4%
Khris Francis run for no gain to the NCaro 47Similar
Q2 6:09
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+11
65.1%
Marquise Williams run for 11 yds to the GTech 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:09
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+21
65.8%
Marquise Williams pass complete to T.J. Thorpe for 21 yds to the GTech 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:09
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+6
66.5%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Austin Proehl for 6 yds to the GTech 15Similar
Q2 6:09
2ND & 4
OPP 15
0
66.5%
T.J. Logan run for no gain to the GTech 15Similar
Q2 2:51
3RD & 4
OPP 15
+15
76.8%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 15 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 10TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:2524% → 40%
Q2 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
75.8%
Justin Thomas pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:51
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
75.9%
Charles Perkins run for 11 yds to the GTech 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+33
75.3%
Justin Thomas pass complete to Broderick Snoddy for 33 yds to the NCaro 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:51
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+19
73.2%
Justin Thomas run for 19 yds to the NCaro 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:26
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
59.8%
Justin Thomas pass complete to Tony Zenon for 12 yds for a TD, (Harrison Butker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 11PUNT
11 plays · 21 yds · 0:5765% → 65%
Q2 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
64.5%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Romar Morris for 8 yds to the NCaro 33Similar
Q2 1:26
2ND & 2
OWN 0
0
64.4%
PENALTY NC unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, PENALTY GT unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:26
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
65.8%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Ryan Switzer, broken up by Isaiah JohnsonSimilar
Q2 1:26
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+4
64.7%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Romar Morris for 4 yds to the NCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
65.3%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, false start (Quinshad Davis) to the NCaro 32Similar
Q2 1:26
1ST & 15
OWN 32
+3
64.4%
Marquise Williams run for 3 yds to the NCaro 35Similar
Q2 1:26
2ND & 12
OWN 35
0
64.3%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to T.J. ThorpeSimilar
Q2 1:26
3RD & 12
OWN 35
+11
63.4%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 11 yds to the NCaro 46Similar
Q2 0:29
4TH & 1
OWN 46
0
64.6%
Tommy Hibbard punt for 54 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:0036% → 35%
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
64.5%
Justin Thomas pass incomplete to DeAndre Smelter, broken up by Brian WalkerSimilar
Q2 0:21
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+2
64.8%
Zach Laskey run for 2 yds to the GTech 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 13TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:0037% → 51%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
63.2%
Charles Perkins run for 7 yds to the GTech 32Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
61.2%
Zach Laskey run for 2 yds to the GTech 34Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
62.2%
Justin Thomas run for 3 yds to the GTech 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
62.2%
Justin Thomas pass incomplete to DeAndre SmelterSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+10
62.5%
Justin Thomas run for 10 yds to the GTech 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-2
60.3%
Justin Thomas run for a loss of 2 yards to the GTech 45Similar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 12
OWN 45
+55
48.8%
Justin Thomas pass complete to Darren Waller for 55 yds for a TD, (Harrison Butker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 14TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:4751% → 72%
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
50.6%
Marquise Williams run for 1 yd to the NCaro 26Similar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+12
50.5%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Quinshad Davis for 12 yds to the NCaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
52.1%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Austin Proehl for 5 yds to the NCaro 43Similar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+11
54.0%
Romar Morris run for 11 yds to the GTech 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
54.7%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Quinshad Davis for 2 yds to the GTech 44Similar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+2
54.7%
Marquise Williams pass complete to T.J. Logan for 2 yds to the GTech 42Similar
Q3 12:00
3RD & 6
OPP 42
+8
54.1%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 8 yds to the GTech 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
55.9%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Romar Morris for 6 yds to the GTech 28Similar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 4
OPP 28
+6
56.0%
T.J. Logan run for 6 yds to the GTech 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+9
56.0%
Marquise Williams pass complete to T.J. Logan for 9 yds to the GTech 13Similar
Q3 8:13
2ND & 1
OPP 13
+13
71.6%
Marquise Williams run for 13 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0034% → 32%
Q3 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
65.9%
Tony Zenon run for 3 yds to the GTech 28Similar
Q3 8:13
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-3
65.5%
Broderick Snoddy run for a loss of 3 yards to the GTech 25Similar
Q3 8:13
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
67.4%
Justin Thomas pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:13
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
68.4%
Ryan Rodwell punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Ryan Switzer at the NCaro 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 16TD
11 plays · 66 yds · 4:0568% → 85%
Q3 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+8
68.4%
T.J. Logan run for 8 yds to the NCaro 42Similar
Q3 6:46
2ND & 2
OWN 42
+8
70.5%
T.J. Logan run for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:46
1ST & 10
50
+3
70.9%
Marquise Williams pass complete to T.J. Logan for 3 yds to the GTech 47Similar
Q3 6:46
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+2
71.1%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Khris Francis for 2 yds to the GTech 45Similar
Q3 6:46
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+6
70.6%
Marquise Williams run for 6 yds to the GTech 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:46
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+10
71.2%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Jack Tabb for 10 yds to the GTech 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:46
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
72.1%
Romar Morris run for 4 yds to the GTech 25Similar
Q3 6:46
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+6
72.1%
Romar Morris run for 6 yds to the GTech 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:46
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
72.1%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Khris Francis for 3 yds to the GTech 16Similar
Q3 6:46
2ND & 7
OPP 16
+13
72.1%
Romar Morris run for 13 yds to the GTech 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
85.4%
Romar Morris run for 3 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 17TD
7 plays · 83 yds · 2:4616% → 38%
Q3 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+6
83.6%
Synjyn Days run for 6 yds to the GTech 23Similar
Q3 2:36
2ND & 4
OWN 23
+11
82.6%
Broderick Snoddy run for 11 yds to the GTech 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+8
82.6%
Broderick Snoddy run for 8 yds to the GTech 42Similar
Q3 2:36
2ND & 2
OWN 42
+7
81.3%
Tony Zenon run for 7 yds to the GTech 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
80.8%
Tony Zenon run for 5 yds to the NCaro 46Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+46
62.0%
Justin Thomas pass complete to DeAndre Smelter for 46 yds for a TD, (Harrison Butker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 18TD
8 plays · 52 yds · 2:1473% → 87%
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
73.0%
Romar Morris run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 14:48
2ND & 8
50
+6
73.2%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Bug Howard for 6 yds to the GTech 44Similar
Q4 14:48
3RD & 2
OPP 44
+4
73.1%
Marquise Williams run for 4 yds to the GTech 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
73.8%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 5 yds to the GTech 35Similar
Q4 14:48
2ND & 5
OPP 35
0
74.7%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to T.J. ThorpeSimilar
Q4 14:48
3RD & 5
OPP 35
-1
73.3%
Marquise Williams sacked by Paul Davis and Quayshawn Nealy for a loss of 1 yard to the GTech 36Similar
Q4 12:34
4TH & 6
OPP 36
+36
86.6%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Mack Hollins for 36 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 19TD
10 plays · 72 yds · 4:2815% → 38%
Q4 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-2
84.9%
Justin Thomas sacked by Dajaun Drennon for a loss of 2 yards to the GTech 26Similar
Q4 12:28
2ND & 12
OWN 26
+16
85.9%
Broderick Snoddy run for 16 yds to the GTech 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-6
83.6%
Justin Thomas run for a loss of 6 yards to the GTech 36Similar
Q4 12:28
2ND & 16
OWN 36
+15
85.8%
Synjyn Days run for 15 yds to the NCaro 49Similar
Q4 12:28
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+10
82.8%
Charles Perkins run for 10 yds to the NCaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:28
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
82.3%
Justin Thomas pass incomplete to Darren WallerSimilar
Q4 12:28
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+4
82.5%
Justin Thomas run for 4 yds to the NCaro 35Similar
Q4 12:28
3RD & 6
OPP 35
+21
82.8%
Tony Zenon run for 21 yds to the NCaro 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
62.0%
Zach Laskey 14 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 20PUNT
9 plays · 35 yds · 0:0080% → 81%
Q4 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
80.1%
T.J. Logan run for 3 yds to the NCaro 22Similar
Q4 7:53
2ND & 7
OWN 22
+9
80.0%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Austin Proehl for 9 yds to the NCaro 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
80.5%
T.J. Logan run for 3 yds to the NCaro 34Similar
Q4 7:53
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+15
80.7%
Marquise Williams pass complete to T.J. Logan for 15 yds to the NCaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-1
82.9%
Marquise Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 48Similar
Q4 7:53
2ND & 11
OWN 48
0
82.0%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Romar MorrisSimilar
Q4 7:53
3RD & 11
OWN 48
+6
80.3%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Romar Morris for 6 yds to the GTech 46Similar
Q4 7:53
4TH & 5
OPP 46
0
80.5%
Tommy Hibbard punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Jamal Golden at the GTech 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 21TD
6 plays · 87 yds · 2:1726% → 63%
Q4 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+9
74.1%
Charles Perkins run for 9 yds to the GTech 22Similar
Q4 5:24
2ND & 1
OWN 22
+3
72.5%
Zach Laskey run for 3 yds to the GTech 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
73.8%
Synjyn Days run for 4 yds to the GTech 29Similar
Q4 5:24
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+11
72.5%
Zach Laskey run for 11 yds to the GTech 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-15
70.9%
Snoddy, B. rush left for 6 yards to the GT46 (Miles, D), PENALTY GT clipping (Perkins, C.) 15 yards to the GT25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:07
1ST & 25
OWN 25
+75
37.5%
DeAndre Smelter run for 75 yds for a TD, (Justin Thomas failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 22TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 2:5647% → 93%
Q4 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
47.0%
Marquise Williams run for 8 yds to the NCaro 33Similar
Q4 3:07
2ND & 2
OWN 33
-2
51.3%
Romar Morris run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 31Similar
Q4 3:07
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+14
45.9%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Jack Tabb for 14 yds to the NCaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
52.3%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Khris Francis for 9 yds to the GTech 46Similar
Q4 3:07
2ND & 1
OPP 46
0
54.2%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Mack HollinsSimilar
Q4 3:07
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+5
52.9%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Mack Hollins for 5 yds to the GTech 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:07
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
54.1%
Marquise Williams pass complete to T.J. Logan for 2 yds to the GTech 39Similar
Q4 3:07
2ND & 8
OPP 39
+9
54.0%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 9 yds to the GTech 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:07
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
56.2%
Marquise Williams run for 5 yds to the GTech 25Similar
Q4 0:48
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+1
51.9%
Marquise Williams run for 1 yd to the GTech 24Similar
Q4 0:48
3RD & 4
OPP 24
+20
48.3%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Romar Morris for 15 yds to the GTech 9 for a 1ST down GEORGIA TECH Penalty, roughing passer (Paul Davis) to the GTech 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
51.9%
Williams, M pass incomplete to Hollins, M, PENALTY GT pass interference (Milton, C.) 2 yards to the GT2, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
93.3%
T.J. Logan 2 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 23END OF GAME
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q4 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
74.6%
Justin Thomas pass incomplete to Darren Waller, broken up by Tim ScottSimilar
Q4 0:09
2ND & 10
OWN 34
0
75.5%
Justin Thomas pass incomplete to Micheal SummersSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:11
T.J. Logan 2 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)
+41.4
TD · Q4 3:07
DeAndre Smelter run for 75 yds for a TD, (Justin Thomas failed )
-33.5
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+24.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com