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GT

Georgia Tech 27 at Virginia Tech 24

VT
2014 · Week 4 · Sep 20, 2014 · Lane Stadium
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Win probability · VT
modelVT aheadGT aheadconfidence bandkey playVT scoreGT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGTDTDFGTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 4:39 · Ryan Rodwell punt for 42 yds , Greg Stroman returns for a loss of 2 yards to the VTech 30
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+35.5+17.80−17.8−35.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 32Pregame prior+15.6Home team on offense−0.1Garbage-time factor+0.1Score differential−0.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.4Blowout margin+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:57: Justin Thomas 2 Yd Run (Harrison Butker Kick) — GT win probability +9.4 pts (now 34%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  2. TD · Q4 11:22: Paul Davis 41 Yd Interception Return (Harrison Butker Kick) — GT win probability +31.7 pts (now 48%) (top driver: One-score game).
  3. TD · Q4 8:03: Michael Brewer 21 Yd Run (Michael Brewer Pass to Bucky Hodges for Two-Point Conversion) — VT win probability +29.5 pts (now 89%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 2:03: DeAndre Smelter 31 Yd pass from Justin Thomas (Harrison Butker Kick) — GT win probability +41.0 pts (now 57%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:00: Harrison Butker 24 yd FG GOOD — GT win probability +28.6 pts (now 95%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
VT made the numbers' call on 2 of 4GT made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 10:56GT 4th & 3 at VT 26, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 33.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.6%−0.1
    64% to make
    Punt
    33.2%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:42VT 4th & 5 at GT 25, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 65.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.5%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.5%−<0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    64.5%−1.0
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:39GT 4th & 20 at GT 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.2%−0.8
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.0%
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:36GT 4th & 2 at VT 37, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    33.4%−1.0
    40% to make
    Punt
    33.3%−1.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 4:55GT 4th & 10 at GT 36, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.7%−0.8
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.6%
    average punt
  6. Q3 12:53VT 4th & 7 at VT 46, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.1%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.5%
    average punt
  7. Q3 4:46GT 4th & 9 at VT 13, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 30.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.8%−1.7
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.5%
    85% to make
    Punt
    17.4%−12.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 0:08VT 4th & 2 at GT 38, up 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.9 ptsPunted · 78.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    75.6%−3.7
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    75.4%−3.9
    average punt
  9. Q4 13:14GT 4th & 4 at GT 20, down 6
    Close callPunted · 24.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.3%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.8%−0.4
    average punt
  10. Q4 6:34GT 4th & 20 at GT 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.6%−3.0
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.6%
    average punt
  11. Q4 5:21VT 4th & 8 at VT 33, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.0%−1.4
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.4%
    average punt
  12. Q4 2:15GT 4th & 15 at midfield, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.6%
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.0%−0.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
VT made the numbers' call on 1 of 2GT made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q2 7:04VT Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:57GT Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 11:22GT Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.2%−1.3
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 8:03VT Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    76.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    76.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 2:03GT Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.6%−2.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
GTDrive 1FG
9 plays · 52 yds · 3:3131% → 32%
Q1 14:27
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+14
68.8%
Justin Thomas run for 14 yds to the GTech 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
68.7%
Zach Laskey run for 2 yds to the GTech 38Similar
Q1 13:45
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+29
68.6%
Justin Thomas run for 29 yds to the VTech 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:47
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-2
68.3%
B.J. Bostic run for a loss of 2 yards to the VTech 35Similar
Q1 12:18
2ND & 12
OPP 35
+11
68.2%
Justin Thomas run for 11 yds to the VTech 24Similar
Q1 11:16
3RD & 1
OPP 24
-2
67.9%
Tony Zenon run for a loss of 2 yards to the VTech 26Similar
Q1 10:56
4TH & 3
OPP 26
+43
68.0%
Harrison Butker 43 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 2FG
11 plays · 46 yds · 3:5668% → 68%
Q1 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
68.1%
Marshawn Williams run for 4 yds to the VTech 33Similar
Q1 10:13
2ND & 6
OWN 33
0
68.0%
Marshawn Williams run for no gain to the VTech 33Similar
Q1 9:25
3RD & 6
OWN 33
+17
67.6%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Sam Rogers for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:25
1ST & 10
50
-6
68.3%
Deon Newsome run for a loss of 6 yards to the VTech 44Similar
Q1 8:55
2ND & 16
OWN 44
+4
67.6%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Bucky Hodges for 4 yds to the VTech 48Similar
Q1 8:15
3RD & 12
OWN 48
+22
67.5%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Cam Phillips for 22 yds to the GTech 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
68.5%
Trey Edmunds run for 6 yds to the GTech 24Similar
Q1 7:19
2ND & 4
OPP 24
-1
68.4%
Marshawn Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the GTech 25Similar
Q1 6:47
3RD & 5
OPP 25
0
68.0%
Michael Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:42
4TH & 5
OPP 25
+42
68.4%
Joey Slye 42 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 3PUNT
12 plays · 1 yds · 2:0332% → 32%
Q1 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
67.7%
GEORGIA TECH Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the GTech 20Similar
Q1 6:36
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
67.8%
Justin Thomas pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:30
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+5
67.7%
Justin Thomas run for 5 yds to the GTech 25Similar
Q1 5:56
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+11
67.8%
Justin Thomas run for 11 yds to the GTech 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-10
67.2%
GEORGIA TECH Penalty, Offensive Holding (Chris Griffin) to the GTech 26Similar
Q1 5:01
1ST & 20
OWN 26
0
67.5%
Justin Thomas pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:54
2ND & 20
OWN 26
0
67.5%
Justin Thomas pass incomplete to DeAndre SmelterSimilar
Q1 4:49
3RD & 20
OWN 26
0
67.8%
Justin Thomas pass incomplete to Darren WallerSimilar
Q1 4:49
4TH & 20
OWN 26
-5
68.0%
GEORGIA TECH Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the GTech 21Similar
Q1 4:49
4TH & 25
OWN 21
+5
68.1%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the GTech 26Similar
Q1 4:39
4TH & 20
OWN 26
-2
68.0%
Ryan Rodwell punt for 42 yds , Greg Stroman returns for a loss of 2 yards to the VTech 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 4FG
13 plays · 54 yds · 4:3968% → 69%
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+10
67.8%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Willie Byrn for 10 yds to the VTech 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
68.2%
Trey Edmunds run for 4 yds to the VTech 44Similar
Q1 3:12
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
68.6%
Michael Brewer pass incomplete to Bucky HodgesSimilar
Q1 3:03
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
68.5%
Shai McKenzie run for no gain to the GTech 49Similar
Q1 2:28
3RD & 10
OPP 49
+5
67.9%
GEORGIA TECH Penalty, Defensive Offside (Antonio Simmons) to the GTech 44Similar
Q1 2:19
3RD & 5
OPP 44
+13
68.7%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Cam Phillips for 13 yds to the GTech 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:52
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
69.2%
Deon Newsome run for 1 yd to the GTech 30Similar
Q1 1:28
2ND & 9
OPP 30
-5
69.2%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-5 Yards) to the GTech 35Similar
Q1 1:02
2ND & 14
OPP 35
+25
68.5%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 25 yds to the GTech 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
69.3%
Shai McKenzie run for 2 yds to the GTech 8Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-8
69.3%
Michael Brewer sacked by Quayshawn Nealy and KeShun Freeman for a loss of 8 yards to the GTech 16Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 0
OPP 16
0
68.4%
Michael Brewer pass incomplete to Cam PhillipsSimilar
Q2 14:51
4TH & 0
OPP 16
+33
68.9%
Joey Slye 33 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 5DOWNS
8 plays · 38 yds · 2:5932% → 31%
Q2 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
68.4%
Zach Laskey run for 4 yds to the GTech 29Similar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+26
68.1%
Zach Laskey run for 26 yds to the VTech 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
66.7%
Zach Laskey run for 2 yds to the VTech 43Similar
Q2 12:49
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+2
66.7%
Zach Laskey run for 2 yds to the VTech 41Similar
Q2 12:00
3RD & 6
OPP 41
+4
66.8%
Zach Laskey run for 4 yds to the VTech 37Similar
Q2 11:36
4TH & 2
OPP 37
0
68.9%
Justin Thomas pass incomplete to Darren WallerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 6TD
11 plays · 63 yds · 4:1869% → 78%
Q2 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
69.1%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Demitri Knowles for 9 yds to the VTech 46Similar
Q2 10:49
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+4
70.0%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Willie Byrn for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:39
1ST & 10
50
+7
70.0%
Demitri Knowles run for 7 yds to the GTech 43Similar
Q2 10:09
2ND & 3
OPP 43
-1
70.3%
J.C. Coleman run for a loss of 1 yard to the GTech 44Similar
Q2 9:34
3RD & 4
OPP 44
-5
70.2%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, False Start (Augie Conte) to the GTech 49Similar
Q2 9:15
3RD & 9
OPP 49
+9
69.2%
Michael Brewer run for 9 yds to the GTech 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
70.5%
Marshawn Williams run for no gain to the GTech 40Similar
Q2 8:05
2ND & 10
OPP 40
-1
71.1%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Cam Phillips for a loss of 1 yard to the GTech 41Similar
Q2 7:30
3RD & 11
OPP 41
+18
70.0%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 18 yds to the GTech 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+17
72.0%
Marshawn Williams run for 17 yds to the GTech 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
78.0%
Marshawn Williams 6 Yd Run (Joey Slye Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 1:3323% → 21%
Q2 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
77.0%
Justin Thomas pass incomplete to DeAndre SmelterSimilar
Q2 6:13
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
77.4%
Justin Thomas run for no gain to the GTech 36Similar
Q2 5:52
3RD & 10
OWN 36
-5
77.9%
GEORGIA TECH Penalty, False Start (Trey Braun) to the GTech 31Similar
Q2 5:18
3RD & 15
OWN 31
+5
78.5%
Justin Thomas pass complete to Zach Laskey for 5 yds to the GTech 36Similar
Q2 4:55
4TH & 10
OWN 36
+3
78.6%
Ryan Rodwell punt for 47 yds , Greg Stroman returns for 3 yds to the VTech 39 VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the VTech 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 8INT
5 plays · 25 yds · 1:0677% → 78%
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
77.1%
Shai McKenzie run for no gain to the VTech 10Similar
Q2 4:20
2ND & 10
OWN 10
-5
77.0%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-5 Yards) to the VTech 5Similar
Q2 4:05
2ND & 15
OWN 5
0
77.0%
Michael Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:55
3RD & 15
OWN 5
+30
76.6%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Cam Phillips for 30 yds to the VTech 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
78.3%
Michael Brewer pass intercepted Corey Griffin return for no gain to the GTech 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 9TD
8 plays · 70 yds · 2:0321% → 34%
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+18
78.7%
Justin Thomas pass complete to DeAndre Smelter for 18 yds to the GTech 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
78.0%
Justin Thomas run for 7 yds to the VTech 45Similar
Q2 2:15
2ND & 3
OPP 45
+5
77.1%
Zach Laskey run for 5 yds to the VTech 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
76.4%
Zach Laskey run for 5 yds to the VTech 35Similar
Q2 1:11
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+19
75.5%
Justin Thomas pass complete to Deon Hill for 19 yds to the VTech 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+14
75.4%
Justin Thomas run for 11 yds to the VTech 5 for a 1ST down VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Personal Foul (3 Yards) to the VTech 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
66.0%
Justin Thomas 2 Yd Run (Harrison Butker Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 10DOWNS
11 plays · 56 yds · 0:5067% → 77%
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
67.4%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 12 yds to the VTech 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
68.2%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 5 yds to the VTech 42Similar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+6
69.2%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Willie Byrn for 6 yds to the VTech 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
69.5%
Michael Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:22
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+7
69.0%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Willie Byrn for 7 yds to the GTech 45Similar
Q2 0:13
3RD & 3
OPP 45
+7
69.6%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Joel Caleb for 7 yds to the GTech 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+19
71.0%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 19 yds to the GTech 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:02
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+36
77.3%
Joey Slye 36 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 1:5774% → 73%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
73.7%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 18 yds to the VTech 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
75.4%
Marshawn Williams run for no gain to the VTech 43Similar
Q3 13:25
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+3
75.1%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Kalvin Cline for 3 yds to the VTech 46Similar
Q3 13:05
3RD & 7
OWN 46
0
74.7%
Michael Brewer pass incomplete to Isaiah FordSimilar
Q3 12:53
4TH & 7
OWN 46
0
72.8%
A.J. Hughes punt for 42 yds, downed at the GTech 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 13FUMBLE
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:2828% → 28%
Q3 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-2
71.6%
Justin Thomas run for a loss of 2 yards to the GTech 10Similar
Q3 12:08
2ND & 12
OWN 10
0
71.9%
Justin Thomas run for no gain to the GTech 10 Justin Thomas fumbled, recovered by VTech Deon ClarkeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 14MISSED FG
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:0876% → 74%
Q3 11:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
76.3%
J.C. Coleman run for no gain to the GTech 10Similar
Q3 11:30
2ND & 0
OPP 10
-5
77.3%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-5 Yards) to the GTech 15Similar
Q3 11:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 15
0
76.1%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Sam Rogers for no gain to the GTech 15Similar
Q3 10:46
3RD & GOAL
OPP 15
0
74.4%
Michael Brewer pass incomplete to Bucky HodgesSimilar
Q3 10:42
4TH & 0
OPP 15
+32
74.4%
Joey Slye 32 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Chris MiltonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 15MISSED FG
12 plays · 67 yds · 5:5628% → 30%
Q3 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
71.6%
Justin Thomas run for 26 yds to the GTech 46 for a 1ST down GEORGIA TECH Penalty, Illegal Block (Deon Hill) to the GTech 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
71.2%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the GTech 36Similar
Q3 9:50
1ST & 5
OWN 36
+6
69.3%
Synjyn Days run for 6 yds to the GTech 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
70.1%
Justin Thomas run for 3 yds to the GTech 45Similar
Q3 8:21
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+6
68.9%
Zach Laskey run for 6 yds to the VTech 49Similar
Q3 8:00
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+1
68.7%
Zach Laskey run for 1 yd to the VTech 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
68.3%
Zach Laskey run for 2 yds to the VTech 46Similar
Q3 6:53
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+32
68.4%
Justin Thomas run for 32 yds to the VTech 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-1
66.3%
Zach Laskey run for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 15Similar
Q3 5:31
2ND & 11
OPP 15
+2
66.9%
Zach Laskey run for 2 yds to the VTech 13Similar
Q3 4:51
3RD & 9
OPP 13
0
68.2%
Justin Thomas pass incomplete to Micheal SummersSimilar
Q3 4:46
4TH & 9
OPP 13
+30
70.3%
Harrison Butker 30 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 16PUNT
11 plays · 42 yds · 4:2275% → 79%
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
75.0%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Willie Byrn for 9 yds to the VTech 29Similar
Q3 4:00
2ND & 1
OWN 29
-5
76.5%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-5 Yards) to the VTech 24Similar
Q3 3:50
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+8
75.2%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Demitri Knowles for 8 yds to the VTech 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
77.3%
Shai McKenzie run for 3 yds to the VTech 35Similar
Q3 3:00
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+8
77.5%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 8 yds to the VTech 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
79.1%
Shai McKenzie run for 8 yds to the GTech 49Similar
Q3 2:03
2ND & 2
OPP 49
+3
79.8%
Shai McKenzie run for 3 yds to the GTech 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:37
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
81.1%
Shai McKenzie run for 8 yds to the GTech 38Similar
Q3 1:23
2ND & 2
OPP 38
+1
81.2%
Shai McKenzie run for 1 yd to the GTech 37Similar
Q3 0:30
3RD & 1
OPP 37
-1
80.5%
Marshawn Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the GTech 38Similar
Q3 0:08
4TH & 2
OPP 38
0
79.0%
A.J. Hughes punt for 24 yds, fair catch by Jamal Golden at the GTech 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:4628% → 25%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+4
72.3%
Zach Laskey run for 4 yds to the GTech 18Similar
Q4 14:45
2ND & 6
OWN 18
+5
72.3%
Tony Zenon run for 5 yds to the GTech 23Similar
Q4 14:00
3RD & 1
OWN 23
-3
72.6%
Justin Thomas run for a loss of 3 yards to the GTech 20Similar
Q4 13:14
4TH & 4
OWN 20
+7
75.1%
Ryan Rodwell punt for 55 yds , Greg Stroman returns for 7 yds to the VTech 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 18INT TD
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:4680% → 52%
Q4 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+15
79.7%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Willie Byrn for 15 yds to the VTech 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
83.2%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 9 yds to the GTech 44Similar
Q4 12:00
2ND & 1
OPP 44
-14
85.2%
Marshawn Williams run for 1 yd to the VTech 43 VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Illegal Block (David Wang) to the VTech 42Similar
Q4 11:50
2ND & 15
OWN 42
-6
83.7%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, False Start (Caleb Farris) to the VTech 36Similar
Q4 11:22
2ND & 21
OWN 36
+41
52.0%
Paul Davis 41 Yd Interception Return (Harrison Butker Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 19TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:0952% → 89%
Q4 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
51.8%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Willie Byrn for 5 yds to the VTech 30Similar
Q4 10:37
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
52.6%
Michael Brewer run for 4 yds to the VTech 34Similar
Q4 10:16
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
53.1%
Michael Brewer run for 3 yds to the VTech 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+19
53.4%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Cam Phillips for 19 yds to the GTech 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
57.7%
Shai McKenzie run for 9 yds to the GTech 35Similar
Q4 8:35
2ND & 1
OPP 35
+4
59.6%
Shai McKenzie run for 4 yds to the GTech 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:03
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+21
89.1%
Michael Brewer 21 Yd Run (Michael Brewer Pass to Bucky Hodges for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · -10 yds · 1:1718% → 13%
Q4 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-10
81.7%
GEORGIA TECH Penalty, Offensive Holding (Shaquille Mason) to the GTech 25Similar
Q4 7:41
1ST & 20
OWN 25
+4
82.9%
Justin Thomas run for 4 yds to the GTech 29Similar
Q4 7:03
2ND & 16
OWN 29
0
85.7%
Justin Thomas pass incomplete to DeAndre SmelterSimilar
Q4 6:44
3RD & 16
OWN 29
-4
86.6%
Justin Thomas sacked by Dadi Nicolas for a loss of 4 yards to the GTech 25Similar
Q4 6:34
4TH & 20
OWN 25
+9
87.3%
Ryan Rodwell punt for 43 yds , Greg Stroman returns for 9 yds to the VTech 34 VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Illegal Block (Bucky Hodges) to the VTech 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:5989% → 89%
Q4 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
88.9%
Shai McKenzie run for 6 yds to the VTech 37Similar
Q4 5:41
2ND & 4
OWN 37
-4
90.7%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Cam Phillips for a loss of 4 yards to the VTech 33Similar
Q4 5:28
3RD & 8
OWN 33
0
89.6%
Michael Brewer pass incomplete to Bucky HodgesSimilar
Q4 5:21
4TH & 8
OWN 33
0
88.7%
A.J. Hughes punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Jamal Golden at the GTech 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 22TD
10 plays · 67 yds · 3:0316% → 57%
Q4 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
84.5%
Justin Thomas run for 4 yds to the GTech 37Similar
Q4 4:20
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+4
84.3%
Zach Laskey run for 4 yds to the GTech 41Similar
Q4 3:39
3RD & 2
OWN 41
+14
85.0%
Justin Thomas pass complete to DeAndre Smelter for 14 yds to the VTech 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:08
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-5
83.8%
Justin Thomas run for a loss of 5 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 2:42
2ND & 15
50
0
86.6%
Justin Thomas pass incomplete to DeAndre SmelterSimilar
Q4 2:37
3RD & 15
50
0
87.4%
Justin Thomas pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:15
4TH & 15
50
+19
90.1%
Justin Thomas pass complete to DeAndre Smelter for 19 yds to the VTech 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
84.2%
Justin Thomas pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:03
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+31
43.2%
DeAndre Smelter 31 Yd pass from Justin Thomas (Harrison Butker Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 23INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q4 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
58.8%
Michael Brewer pass intercepted D.J. White return for no gain to the VTech 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 24END OF GAME
13 plays · 33 yds · 1:5556% → 95%
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-5
43.7%
GEORGIA TECH Penalty, False Start (Errin Joe) to the VTech 45Similar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 15
OPP 45
+7
46.7%
Justin Thomas run for 7 yds to the VTech 38Similar
Q4 1:47
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+1
41.6%
Zach Laskey run for 1 yd to the VTech 37Similar
Q4 1:40
3RD & 7
OPP 37
+19
40.7%
Justin Thomas pass complete to DeAndre Smelter for 19 yds to the VTech 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:03
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+9
36.8%
Justin Thomas run for 9 yds to the VTech 9Similar
Q4 0:20
2ND & 1
OPP 9
+4
36.5%
Justin Thomas run for 4 yds to the VTech 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-2
36.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the VTech 7Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+24
4.6%
Harrison Butker 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:03
DeAndre Smelter 31 Yd pass from Justin Thomas (Harrison Butker Kick)
-41
TD · Q4 11:22
Paul Davis 41 Yd Interception Return (Harrison Butker Kick)
-31.7
TD · Q4 8:03
Michael Brewer 21 Yd Run (Michael Brewer Pass to Bucky Hodges for Two-Point Conversion)
+29.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com