2014 · Week 1 · Aug 30, 2014 · Bobby Dodd Stadium
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Win probability · GT
modelGT aheadWOF aheadconfidence bandkey playGT scoreWOF score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 14:46 · David Marvin punt for 40 yds, downed at the GTech 21
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 0:51: Ray Smith run for 92 yds for a TD, (David Marvin BLOCKED), (David Marvin BLOCKED), (David Marvin BLOCKED) — WOF win probability +5.4 pts (now 15%) (top driver: WOF has the ball).
- FG · Q3 4:27: David Marvin 51 yd FG GOOD — WOF win probability +5.9 pts (now 15%) (top driver: WOF has the ball).
- TD · Q3 4:02: Justin Thomas pass complete to DeAndre Smelter for 71 yds for a TD, (Harrison Butker KICK) — GT win probability +10.6 pts (now 94%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
- TD · Q4 9:49: Octavius Harden run for 4 yds for a TD, (David Marvin KICK) — WOF win probability +19.9 pts (now 29%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
- TD · Q4 8:34: Zach Laskey run for 11 yds for a TD, (Harrison Butker KICK) — GT win probability +12.1 pts (now 96%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
GT made the numbers' call on 3 of 5WOF made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
- Q1 14:46WOF 4th & 5 at WOF 39, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 4.5% before the snapGo for it4.5%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.5%average punt
- Q1 2:16WOF 4th & 6 at GT 22, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 6.6% before the snapGo for it6.5%−<0.139% to convertField goalTheir call6.6%72% to makePunt5.9%−0.7average punt
- Q1 2:09GT 4th & 3 at GT 30, up 4Close callPunted · 92.6% before the snapGo for it92.7%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call92.6%−0.1average punt
- Q2 15:00WOF 4th & 3 at WOF 37, down 4Close callPunted · 7.7% before the snapGo for it7.8%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.7%−0.1average punt
- Q2 7:40GT 4th & 4 at WOF 14, up 4Close callKicked a field goal · 90.3% before the snapGo for it90.3%46% to convertField goalTheir call90.2%−0.184% to makePunt88.8%−1.5average punt
- Q2 7:40WOF 4th & 8 at WOF 45, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.9% before the snapGo for it9.8%−0.234% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call10.0%average punt
- Q2 2:38GT 4th & 10 at GT 46, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.8% before the snapGo for it87.6%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call87.7%average punt
- Q3 14:51GT 4th & 1 at GT 37, up 1Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call86.5%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt85.4%−1.1average punt
- Q3 14:51GT 4th & 5 at WOF 41, up 1Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call86.8%42% to convertField goal86.1%−0.732% to makePunt86.5%−0.4average punt
- Q3 4:27WOF 4th & 13 at GT 34, down 8Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 9.7% before the snapGo for it8.9%−0.921% to convertField goalTheir call9.8%47% to makePunt9.1%−0.7average punt
- Q4 15:00WOF 4th & 2 at GT 44, down 12Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call8.6%57% to convertField goal6.9%−1.727% to makePunt7.6%−0.9average punt
- Q4 8:34WOF 4th & 14 at WOF 21, down 12Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.4% before the snapGo for it4.5%−0.917% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.4%average punt
- Q4 1:34WOF 4th & 4 at GT 45, down 19Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.2%48% to convertField goal1.0%−0.225% to makePunt0.9%−0.3average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GT made the numbers' call on 4 of 5WOF made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 8:16GT Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.5%97% to makeGo for two94.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 9:10GT Touchdown, up 7 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call89.1%97% to makeGo for two89.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 4:02GT Touchdown, up 11 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.9%97% to makeGo for two92.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 9:49WOF Touchdown, down 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call14.3%97% to makeGo for two13.8%−0.545% to convert
- Q4 8:34GT Touchdown, up 11 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.2%97% to makeGo for two94.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 1:34GT Touchdown, up 18 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call98.5%−0.497% to makeGo for two98.9%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWOFDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 0:003% → 3%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 2TD9 plays · 78 yds · 4:2596% → 96%
WOFDrive 3FG14 plays · 53 yds · 6:004% → 6%
GTDrive 4PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WOFDrive 5PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 0:386% → 6%
GTDrive 6MISSED FG14 plays · 66 yds · 6:3194% → 92%
Q2 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
93.5%
Justin Thomas pass complete to DeAndre Smelter for 7 yds to the GTech 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WOFDrive 7PUNT9 plays · 25 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q2 7:40
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+5
91.6%
Lorenzo Long run for 5 yds to the Woffd 31 Lorenzo Long fumbled, forced by Patrick Gamble, recovered by Woffd Anton Wahrby for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:40
4TH & 8
OWN 45
-4
91.9%
David Marvin punt for 40 yds , Jamal Golden returns for a loss of 4 yards to the GTech 26 Jamal Golden fumbled, recovered by GTech N/A WOFFORD Penalty, illegal participation (N/A) to the GTech 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 8PUNT6 plays · 20 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q2 2:38
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+15
90.3%
Justin Thomas pass complete to Tony Zenon for 15 yds to the GTech 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:38
4TH & 10
OWN 46
+3
89.7%
Ryan Rodwell punt for 45 yds , Will Gay returns for 3 yds to the Woffd 49 WOFFORD Penalty, illegal block (6 Yards) to the Woffd 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WOFDrive 9TD5 plays · 94 yds · 0:2410% → 15%
Q2 0:51
3RD & 8
OWN 8
+92
84.8%
Ray Smith run for 92 yds for a TD, (David Marvin BLOCKED), (David Marvin BLOCKED), (David Marvin BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 10FG6 plays · 37 yds · 0:4184% → 90%
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-10
84.1%
Thomas, J. pass complete to Smelter, D. for 29 yards to the WOF7 (D. Michaelson), PENALTY GT holding (Mason, S.) 10 yards to the WOF46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:41
1ST & 20
OPP 46
+33
83.1%
Justin Thomas pass complete to Tony Zenon for 33 yds to the Woffd 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 11TD12 plays · 72 yds · 5:4188% → 93%
Q3 14:51
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+14
88.5%
Justin Thomas pass complete to DeAndre Smelter for 14 yds to the Woffd 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:51
4TH & 5
OPP 41
+22
88.3%
Justin Thomas pass complete to Tony Zenon for 22 yds to the Woffd 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
92.5%
Justin Thomas pass complete to DeAndre Smelter for 19 yds for a TD, (Harrison Butker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WOFDrive 12FG12 plays · 41 yds · 4:439% → 15%
Q3 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-8
88.7%
Ray Smith run for 7 yds to the GTech 24 WOFFORD Penalty, personal foul (Will Gay) to the GTech 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 13TD2 plays · 71 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q3 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+71
94.1%
Justin Thomas pass complete to DeAndre Smelter for 71 yds for a TD, (Harrison Butker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WOFDrive 14TD19 plays · 75 yds · 9:137% → 29%
Q3 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
93.3%
Evan Jacks pass complete to Zach Muller for 3 yds to the Woffd 28Similar
Q3 4:02
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+6
92.6%
Evan Jacks pass complete to Will Irwin for 6 yds to the Woffd 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 49
+5
91.9%
Michael Weimer pass complete to Wade Francis for 5 yds to the GTech 44Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
91.5%
Evan Jacks pass complete to Will Irwin for 6 yds to the GTech 36Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 15
OPP 36
+15
92.1%
Evan Jacks pass incomplete to Nick Colvin, PENALTY GT pass interference (Austin, Law.) 15 yards to the GT21, 1ST DOWN WOF, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 15TD4 plays · 80 yds · 1:0884% → 96%
Q4 9:42
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+65
83.6%
Justin Thomas pass complete to Broderick Snoddy for 65 yds to the Woffd 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WOFDrive 16PUNT5 plays · -4 yds · 0:006% → 5%
Q4 8:34
4TH & 14
OWN 21
+28
94.7%
David Marvin punt for 51 yds , Jamal Golden returns for 28 yds to the GTech 49 GEORGIA TECH Penalty, illegal block (Terrell Lewis) to the GTech 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 17TD12 plays · 54 yds · 5:1996% → 100%
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 9:49
Octavius Harden run for 4 yds for a TD, (David Marvin KICK)
-19.9
TD · Q4 8:34
Zach Laskey run for 11 yds for a TD, (Harrison Butker KICK)
+12.1
TD · Q3 4:02
Justin Thomas pass complete to DeAndre Smelter for 71 yds for a TD, (Harrison Butker KICK)
+10.6