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UNC

North Carolina 45 at Duke 20

DUKE
2014 · Week 13 · Nov 20, 2014 · Wallace Wade Stadium
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Win probability · DUKE
modelDUKE aheadUNC aheadconfidence bandkey playDUKE scoreUNC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 5:12 · Anthony Boone pass incomplete
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+54.5+27.30−27.3−54.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 185Home team on offense−50.0Score differential−46.8Pregame prior+1.4Garbage-time factor−18.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−4.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−6.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:26: Marquise Williams pass complete to Mack Hollins for 1 yd for a TD, (Thomas Moore KICK) — UNC win probability +4.9 pts (now 47%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 13:02: Marquise Williams run for 1 yd for a TD, (Thomas Moore KICK) — UNC win probability +11.1 pts (now 62%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 9:10: T.J. Logan run for 1 yd for a TD, (Thomas Moore KICK) — UNC win probability +4.4 pts (now 93%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 2:26: Anthony Boone pass complete to Jamison Crowder for 18 yds for a TD, (Ross Martin KICK) — DUKE win probability +4.9 pts (now 8%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:21: Thomas Sirk run for 1 yd for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — DUKE win probability +3.4 pts (now 7%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
DUKE made the numbers' call on 4 of 8UNC made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 14:13UNC 4th & 8 at UNC 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.1%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:25DUKE 4th & 3 at UNC 47, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    59.8%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:26UNC 4th & 1 at DUKE 1, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.5%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    39.3%−1.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    36.1%−4.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:00DUKE 4th & 14 at DUKE 35, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.8%−1.6
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:43DUKE 4th & 5 at DUKE 39, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.0%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:42DUKE 4th & 2 at DUKE 15, down 21
    Close callPunted · 36.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.1%−0.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:42DUKE 4th & 16 at DUKE 49, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.6%−0.9
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.4%
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:10UNC 4th & 1 at DUKE 1, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.7%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    85.0%−2.8
    94% to make
    Punt
    77.4%−10.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:21DUKE 4th & 3 at DUKE 19, down 28
    Close callPunted · 4.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.0%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:23UNC 4th & 2 at DUKE 13, up 28
    Close callKicked a field goal · 96.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.3%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.2%−0.1
    85% to make
    Punt
    95.8%−0.5
    average punt
  11. Q4 13:03UNC 4th & 6 at DUKE 48, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.7%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.7%
    average punt
  12. Q4 5:12DUKE 4th & 3 at UNC 14, down 25
    Close callWent for it · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.4%−0.4
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    0.7%
    84% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−0.7
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:46UNC 4th & 3 at UNC 33, up 25
    Close callPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:20DUKE 4th & 5 at DUKE 25, down 25
    Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
DUKE made the numbers' call on 2 of 3UNC made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 8:34UNC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:49UNC Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 4:22DUKE Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 1:26UNC Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 13:02UNC Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 9:10UNC Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 2:26DUKE Touchdown, down 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 8:21DUKE Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    5.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    5.0%−0.4
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 6:13UNC Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNCDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:3834% → 34%
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
66.2%
Marquise Williams run for 2 yds to the NCaro 27Similar
Q1 14:32
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
66.1%
Marquise Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:27
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
66.2%
Marquise Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:13
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+30
66.2%
Tommy Hibbard punt for 49 yds , Jamison Crowder returns for 30 yds to the NCaro 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 2FUMBLE
5 plays · 24 yds · 1:4666% → 66%
Q1 14:04
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
66.2%
Shaquille Powell run for 8 yds to the NCaro 38Similar
Q1 13:31
2ND & 2
OPP 38
-2
66.2%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Jamison Crowder for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 40Similar
Q1 13:00
3RD & 4
OPP 40
+16
66.2%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Max McCaffrey for 16 yds to the NCaro 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
66.3%
Shaquille Powell run for 3 yds to the NCaro 21Similar
Q1 12:18
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+1
66.4%
Thomas Sirk run for 1 yd to the NCaro 20 Thomas Sirk fumbled, forced by Justin Thomason, recovered by NCaro Jeff Schoettmer at the NCaro 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 3TD
13 plays · 78 yds · 3:3734% → 38%
Q1 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
65.9%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Quinshad Davis for 7 yds to the NCaro 29Similar
Q1 12:01
2ND & 3
OWN 29
0
65.8%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Mack HollinsSimilar
Q1 12:01
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+5
65.9%
DUKE Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the NCaro 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
65.8%
Marquise Williams run for 1 yd to the NCaro 35Similar
Q1 11:31
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+4
65.8%
T.J. Logan run for 4 yds to the NCaro 39Similar
Q1 10:52
3RD & 5
OWN 39
+22
65.5%
Marquise Williams pass complete to T.J. Logan for 22 yds to the Duke 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+9
65.3%
T.J. Logan run for 9 yds to the Duke 30Similar
Q1 10:23
2ND & 1
OPP 30
+4
65.1%
T.J. Logan run for 4 yds to the Duke 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:47
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
65.0%
Romar Morris run for 6 yds to the Duke 20Similar
Q1 9:33
2ND & 4
OPP 20
+4
64.9%
Marquise Williams run for 4 yds to the Duke 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:12
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+12
64.8%
Marquise Williams run for 12 yds to the Duke 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
64.5%
Romar Morris run for 1 yd to the Duke 3Similar
Q1 8:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
62.3%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Quinshad Davis for 3 yds for a TD, (Thomas Moore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 4FUMBLE RETURN TD
3 plays · -11 yds · 0:2363% → 60%
Q1 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-10
63.0%
DUKE Penalty, Face Mask (10 yards) (-10 Yards) to the Duke 11Similar
Q1 7:49
1ST & 20
OWN 11
-10
60.3%
Anthony Boone sacked for a loss of 1 yd by D. Lawrence and N. Jones, fumbled, Tim Scott 10 Yd Fumble Return for TD (Thomas Moore Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 5TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 2:5260% → 62%
Q1 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
60.1%
Josh Snead run for 1 yd to the Duke 26Similar
Q1 7:01
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+8
59.9%
Anthony Boone run for 8 yds to the Duke 34Similar
Q1 6:34
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+12
59.9%
Thomas Sirk run for 12 yds to the Duke 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
59.9%
Anthony Boone pass incomplete to Max McCaffreySimilar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+7
59.6%
Anthony Boone run for 7 yds to the NCaro 47Similar
Q1 5:31
3RD & 3
OPP 47
0
59.3%
Anthony Boone pass incomplete to Jamison CrowderSimilar
Q1 5:25
4TH & 3
OPP 47
+31
59.1%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Jamison Crowder for 31 yds to the NCaro 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:01
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+6
59.3%
Anthony Boone run for 6 yds to the NCaro 10Similar
Q1 4:28
2ND & 4
OPP 10
0
59.1%
Anthony Boone pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:22
3RD & 4
OPP 10
+10
62.3%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Issac Blakeney for 10 yds for a TD, (Ross Martin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 6TD
11 plays · 79 yds · 2:3739% → 47%
Q1 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
60.7%
Marquise Williams run for 2 yds to the NCaro 23Similar
Q1 3:45
2ND & 8
OWN 23
0
60.6%
Marquise Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:45
3RD & 8
OWN 23
+5
60.9%
DUKE Penalty, Defensive Offside (Dezmond Johnson) to the NCaro 28Similar
Q1 3:33
3RD & 3
OWN 28
+4
60.3%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Austin Proehl for 4 yds to the NCaro 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+14
59.9%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Bug Howard for 14 yds to the NCaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
59.2%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Bug Howard for 6 yds to the Duke 48Similar
Q1 2:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
58.7%
T.J. Logan run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 2Similar
Q1 2:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
58.1%
T.J. Logan run for 1 yd to the Duke 1Similar
Q1 1:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
58.1%
T.J. Logan run for no gain to the Duke 1Similar
Q1 1:26
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
53.3%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Mack Hollins for 1 yd for a TD, (Thomas Moore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 10 yds · 2:0054% → 52%
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
53.8%
Shaun Wilson run for no gain to the Duke 25Similar
Q1 0:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
53.6%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Max McCaffrey for 9 yds to the Duke 34Similar
Q1 0:20
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+5
53.8%
Anthony Boone run for 5 yds to the Duke 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
53.8%
Anthony Boone pass incomplete to Johnell BarnesSimilar
Q2 14:45
2ND & 10
OWN 39
-4
53.4%
Anthony Boone sacked by Norkeithus Otis and Ethan Farmer for a loss of 4 yards to the Duke 35Similar
Q2 14:13
3RD & 14
OWN 35
0
52.1%
Anthony Boone pass incomplete to Jamison CrowderSimilar
Q2 14:00
4TH & 14
OWN 35
+16
51.9%
Will Monday punt for 41 yds , Ryan Switzer returns for 16 yds to the NCaro 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 8TD
5 plays · 60 yds · 0:4850% → 62%
Q2 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+45
49.6%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 45 yds to the Duke 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:42
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+7
49.3%
Marquise Williams pass complete to T.J. Thorpe for 7 yds to the Duke 8Similar
Q2 13:28
2ND & 3
OPP 8
+4
49.0%
Romar Morris run for 4 yds to the Duke 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
48.9%
Romar Morris run for 3 yds to the Duke 1Similar
Q2 13:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
37.8%
Marquise Williams run for 1 yd for a TD, (Thomas Moore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 1:0641% → 39%
Q2 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+10
40.6%
Shaquille Powell run for 10 yds to the Duke 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
40.4%
Anthony Boone run for 5 yds to the Duke 39Similar
Q2 11:59
2ND & 5
OWN 39
0
40.3%
Anthony Boone pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:52
3RD & 5
OWN 39
0
40.0%
Anthony Boone pass incomplete to Johnell BarnesSimilar
Q2 11:43
4TH & 5
OWN 39
0
39.3%
Will Monday punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCaro 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 10FUMBLE
4 plays · 64 yds · 1:0763% → 67%
Q2 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+12
36.6%
Marquise Williams run for 12 yds to the NCaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-10
35.9%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Lucas Crowley) to the NCaro 25Similar
Q2 10:46
1ST & 20
OWN 25
+62
35.0%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 62 yds to the Duke 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+6
33.3%
Marquise Williams run for 6 yds to the Duke 7 Marquise Williams fumbled, recovered by Duke Bryon FieldsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:3336% → 36%
Q2 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+8
36.3%
Josh Snead run for 8 yds to the Duke 15Similar
Q2 9:55
2ND & 2
OWN 15
0
36.3%
Anthony Boone pass incomplete to Issac BlakeneySimilar
Q2 9:51
3RD & 2
OWN 15
0
36.1%
Anthony Boone pass incomplete to Max McCaffreySimilar
Q2 9:42
4TH & 2
OWN 15
-3
35.8%
Will Monday punt for 51 yds , Ryan Switzer returns for a loss of 3 yards to the NCaro 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 12FUMBLE
6 plays · 38 yds · 1:1467% → 69%
Q2 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
33.0%
T.J. Logan run for 2 yds to the NCaro 33Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+10
32.0%
Marquise Williams run for 10 yds to the NCaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
31.0%
T.J. Logan run for 9 yds to the Duke 48Similar
Q2 8:32
2ND & 1
OPP 48
+9
30.1%
T.J. Logan run for 9 yds to the Duke 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:22
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+16
30.2%
Marquise Williams run for 16 yds to the Duke 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-5
31.0%
Marquise Williams sacked by Jordan DeWalt-Ondijo and Jamal Bruce for a loss of 5 yards to the Duke 31 Marquise Williams fumbled, recovered by Duke David Helton , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 3:1335% → 31%
Q2 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
34.7%
Shaun Wilson run for 3 yds to the Duke 34Similar
Q2 7:30
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+1
34.3%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Shaun Wilson for 1 yd to the Duke 35Similar
Q2 7:00
3RD & 6
OWN 35
+20
33.1%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Max McCaffrey for 20 yds to the NCaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
34.6%
Shaun Wilson run for 4 yds to the NCaro 41Similar
Q2 6:04
2ND & 6
OPP 41
-1
34.1%
Anthony Boone run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 42Similar
Q2 5:20
3RD & 7
OPP 42
-9
32.7%
Anthony Boone sacked by Jessie Rogers and Norkeithus Otis for a loss of 9 yards to the Duke 49Similar
Q2 4:42
4TH & 16
OWN 49
0
30.8%
Will Monday punt for 15 yds, downed at the NCaro 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 14FUMBLE
12 plays · 49 yds · 3:1274% → 78%
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
26.3%
Romar Morris run for 9 yds to the NCaro 45Similar
Q2 4:16
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+20
25.3%
Romar Morris run for 20 yds to the Duke 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:03
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
24.9%
Romar Morris run for 6 yds to the Duke 29Similar
Q2 3:44
2ND & 4
OPP 29
+4
24.2%
Romar Morris run for 4 yds to the Duke 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
23.3%
T.J. Logan run for 7 yds to the Duke 18Similar
Q2 2:44
2ND & 3
OPP 18
-5
23.5%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (Jack Tabb) to the Duke 23Similar
Q2 2:27
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+17
26.5%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Quinshad Davis for 17 yds to the Duke 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-10
26.3%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Caleb Peterson) to the Duke 16Similar
Q2 2:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 16
0
26.5%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Bug HowardSimilar
Q2 2:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 16
+8
25.9%
Marquise Williams run for 8 yds to the Duke 8Similar
Q2 1:18
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
-7
21.7%
Marquise Williams sacked by DeVon Edwards and C.J. France for a loss of 7 yards to the Duke 15 Marquise Williams fumbled, forced by DeVon Edwards, recovered by Duke Jordan DeWalt-Ondijo , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 15END OF HALF
4 plays · 12 yds · 0:5526% → 24%
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
25.5%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Johnell Barnes for 4 yds to the Duke 19Similar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 6
OWN 19
-4
25.4%
Anthony Boone run for a loss of 4 yards to the Duke 15 Anthony Boone fumbled, recovered by Duke Anthony BooneSimilar
Q2 0:25
3RD & 10
OWN 15
+5
24.3%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Duke 20Similar
Q2 0:05
3RD & 5
OWN 20
+7
24.2%
Shaquille Powell run for 7 yds to the Duke 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 16INT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:0224% → 23%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
24.0%
Josh Snead run for 5 yds to the Duke 30Similar
Q3 14:26
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
24.3%
Anthony Boone run for no gain to the Duke 30Similar
Q3 13:48
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
23.0%
Anthony Boone pass intercepted M.J. Stewart return for no gain to the NCaro 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 17TD
16 plays · 68 yds · 4:2281% → 93%
Q3 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
19.0%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 2 yds to the NCaro 34Similar
Q3 13:20
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+9
18.7%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Quinshad Davis for 9 yds to the NCaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
18.0%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Quinshad Davis for 3 yds to the NCaro 46Similar
Q3 12:35
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+1
16.0%
T.J. Logan run for 1 yd to the NCaro 47Similar
Q3 12:05
3RD & 6
OWN 47
+19
15.2%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Jack Tabb for 19 yds to the Duke 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:52
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
14.1%
T.J. Logan run for 4 yds to the Duke 30Similar
Q3 11:18
2ND & 6
OPP 30
0
13.3%
Marquise Williams run for no gain to the Duke 30Similar
Q3 10:39
3RD & 6
OPP 30
0
13.1%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Ryan SwitzerSimilar
Q3 10:34
4TH & 6
OPP 30
+10
14.3%
DUKE Penalty, Defensive Holding (Bryon Fields) to the Duke 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
12.6%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to T.J. ThorpeSimilar
Q3 10:26
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
12.8%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Ryan SwitzerSimilar
Q3 10:17
3RD & 10
OPP 20
+15
12.9%
Marquise Williams pass complete to T.J. Logan for 15 yds to the Duke 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
12.0%
Romar Morris run for 4 yds to the Duke 1Similar
Q3 9:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
11.3%
Marquise Williams run for no gain to the Duke 1Similar
Q3 9:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
11.3%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Quinshad DavisSimilar
Q3 9:10
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
6.9%
T.J. Logan run for 1 yd for a TD, (Thomas Moore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 0:389% → 8%
Q3 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
9.0%
Anthony Boone pass incomplete to Jamison CrowderSimilar
Q3 8:52
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+7
8.6%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Issac Blakeney for 7 yds to the Duke 19Similar
Q3 8:28
3RD & 3
OWN 19
0
8.6%
Anthony Boone pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:21
4TH & 3
OWN 19
0
8.0%
Will Monday punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Ryan Switzer at the NCaro 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 19FG
5 plays · 43 yds · 1:5096% → 96%
Q3 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+35
3.8%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Bug Howard for 35 yds to the Duke 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
3.8%
Romar Morris run for 1 yd to the Duke 20Similar
Q3 7:33
2ND & 9
OPP 20
+1
3.6%
Marquise Williams run for 1 yd to the Duke 19Similar
Q3 6:50
3RD & 8
OPP 19
+6
3.4%
Marquise Williams run for 6 yds to the Duke 13Similar
Q3 6:23
4TH & 2
OPP 13
+30
4.4%
Thomas Moore 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 20TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 3:424% → 8%
Q3 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
4.1%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Jamison Crowder for 13 yds Jamison Crowder fumbled, forced by Cayson Collins, recovered by Duke Max McCaffrey for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
4.1%
Anthony Boone pass incomplete to David ReevesSimilar
Q3 5:51
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+9
3.9%
Anthony Boone run for 9 yds to the Duke 47Similar
Q3 5:30
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+4
4.1%
Shaun Wilson run for 4 yds to the NCaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+10
4.0%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Jamison Crowder for 10 yds to the NCaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
3.6%
Shaun Wilson run for 4 yds to the NCaro 35Similar
Q3 4:14
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+3
3.6%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Jamison Crowder for 3 yds to the NCaro 32Similar
Q3 3:50
3RD & 3
OPP 32
+3
3.5%
Thomas Sirk run for 3 yds to the NCaro 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:32
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
3.5%
Anthony Boone pass incomplete to Issac BlakeneySimilar
Q3 3:20
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+4
3.4%
Josh Snead run for 4 yds to the NCaro 25Similar
Q3 2:46
3RD & 6
OPP 25
+7
3.1%
Anthony Boone run for 7 yds to the NCaro 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:26
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
8.0%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Jamison Crowder for 18 yds for a TD, (Ross Martin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 21PUNT
11 plays · 25 yds · 3:5997% → 98%
Q3 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
3.3%
Marquise Williams run for 6 yds to the NCaro 33Similar
Q3 1:28
2ND & 4
OWN 33
+5
3.1%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Quinshad Davis for 5 yds to the NCaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
2.8%
T.J. Logan run for 4 yds to the NCaro 42Similar
Q3 0:57
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+6
2.8%
T.J. Logan run for 6 yds to the NCaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
2.7%
Marquise Williams run for 6 yds to the Duke 46Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 4
OPP 46
-8
2.5%
T.J. Logan run for 2 yds to the NCaro 44 NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the NCaro 46Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 12
OWN 46
-5
2.5%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NCaro 41Similar
Q4 14:02
2ND & 17
OWN 41
+7
2.3%
T.J. Logan run for 7 yds to the NCaro 48Similar
Q4 13:30
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+4
2.2%
Marquise Williams run for 4 yds to the Duke 48Similar
Q4 13:03
4TH & 6
OPP 48
0
2.4%
Tommy Hibbard punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Jamison Crowder at the Duke 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 22TD
14 plays · 83 yds · 4:274% → 7%
Q4 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+8
3.5%
Anthony Boone run for 8 yds to the Duke 25Similar
Q4 12:34
2ND & 2
OWN 25
+10
3.5%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Max McCaffrey for 10 yds to the Duke 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
3.3%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Johnell Barnes for 10 yds to the Duke 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
3.4%
Anthony Boone pass incomplete to Jamison CrowderSimilar
Q4 11:38
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+18
3.3%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Max McCaffrey for 18 yds to the NCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-5
3.5%
DUKE Penalty, False Start (Max McCaffrey) to the NCaro 42Similar
Q4 10:57
1ST & 15
OPP 42
+4
3.3%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Josh Snead for 4 yds to the NCaro 38Similar
Q4 10:27
2ND & 11
OPP 38
+9
3.2%
Anthony Boone pass complete to David Reeves for 9 yds to the NCaro 29Similar
Q4 10:05
3RD & 2
OPP 29
+15
3.4%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Junior Gnonkonde) to the NCaro 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-7
3.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 7 yards to the NCaro 21Similar
Q4 9:10
2ND & 17
OPP 21
+13
3.0%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Johnell Barnes for 13 yds to the NCaro 8Similar
Q4 8:45
3RD & 4
OPP 8
+6
3.0%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Johnell Barnes for 6 yds to the NCaro 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
3.2%
Thomas Sirk run for 1 yd to the NCaro 1Similar
Q4 8:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
6.6%
Thomas Sirk run for 1 yd for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 23TD
6 plays · 31 yds · 1:4797% → 100%
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
3.2%
Romar Morris run for 4 yds to the Duke 27Similar
Q4 7:20
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+10
2.9%
Romar Morris run for 10 yds to the Duke 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
2.6%
Romar Morris run for 1 yd to the Duke 16Similar
Q4 6:13
2ND & 9
OPP 16
+16
0.2%
Marquise Williams run for 16 yds for a TD, (Thomas Moore KICK)Similar
Q4 6:13
2ND & 9
OWN 35
-15
0.2%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Marquise Williams) to the NCaro 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 24DOWNS
6 plays · 52 yds · 0:470% → 0%
Q4 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+45
0.3%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Johnell Barnes for 45 yds to the NCaro 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+7
0.4%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Johnell Barnes for 7 yds to the NCaro 14Similar
Q4 5:25
2ND & 3
OPP 14
0
0.4%
Anthony Boone pass incomplete to Jamison CrowderSimilar
Q4 5:20
3RD & 3
OPP 14
0
0.4%
Anthony Boone pass incomplete to Jamison CrowderSimilar
Q4 5:12
4TH & 3
OPP 14
0
0.4%
Anthony Boone pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 25PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 3:08100% → 100%
Q4 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+12
0.2%
Romar Morris run for 12 yds to the NCaro 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
0.2%
Romar Morris run for no gain to the NCaro 26Similar
Q4 3:20
2ND & 10
OWN 26
-9
0.1%
Romar Morris run for 1 yd to the NCaro 27 NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the NCaro 17Similar
Q4 2:55
2ND & 19
OWN 17
+10
0.1%
Romar Morris run for 10 yds to the NCaro 27Similar
Q4 2:30
3RD & 9
OWN 27
+6
0.1%
Charles Brunson run for 6 yds to the NCaro 33Similar
Q4 1:46
4TH & 3
OWN 33
0
0.1%
Tommy Hibbard punt for 47 yds, downed at the Duke 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 26END OF GAME
4 plays · 10 yds · 1:100% → 0%
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
0.2%
Thomas Sirk run for 1 yd to the Duke 21Similar
Q4 1:10
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+4
0.2%
Thomas Sirk run for 4 yds to the Duke 25Similar
Q4 0:40
3RD & 5
OWN 25
0
0.1%
Thomas Sirk run for no gain to the Duke 25Similar
Q4 0:20
4TH & 5
OWN 25
+5
0.1%
Thomas Sirk run for 5 yds to the Duke 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 13:02
Marquise Williams run for 1 yd for a TD, (Thomas Moore KICK)
-11.1
TD · Q1 1:26
Marquise Williams pass complete to Mack Hollins for 1 yd for a TD, (Thomas Moore KICK)
-4.9
TD · Q3 2:26
Anthony Boone pass complete to Jamison Crowder for 18 yds for a TD, (Ross Martin KICK)
+4.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com