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DUKE

Duke 51 at Pittsburgh 48

PITT
2014 · Week 10 · Nov 1, 2014 · Acrisure Stadium
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Win probability · PITT
modelPITT aheadDUKE aheadconfidence bandkey playPITT scoreDUKE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTOT2TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of GameFG+8.3PITT 57.0%Chris Blewitt 38 yd FG GOODAWAY 31 - HOME 31 · Q4 13:22
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 13:22 · Chris Blewitt 38 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorTime remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+27.5+13.80−13.8−27.5Q1Q2Q3Q4OTOT2Play 129Home team on offense+2.1Pregame prior+1.3Score differential−1.1Garbage-time factor−1.3Time remaining−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q4 13:07: Chris Blewitt kickoff for 64 yds , DeVon Edwards return for 99 yds for a TD, (Ross Martin KICK) — DUKE win probability +30.4 pts (now 73%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 5:18: James Conner run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK) — PITT win probability +32.8 pts (now 62%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  3. TD · OT 0:00: Anthony Boone run for 12 yds for a TD, (Ross Martin KICK) — DUKE win probability +18.5 pts (now 78%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  4. TD · OT 0:00: James Conner run for 14 yds for a TD James Conner run for 14 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK) — PITT win probability +36.6 pts (now 65%) (top driver: defense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  5. TD · OT2 0:00: Thomas Sirk 5 Yd Run — DUKE win probability +58.7 pts (now 88%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PITT made the numbers' call on 3 of 3DUKE made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 10:39PITT 4th & 3 at DUKE 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 58.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    58.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    58.6%−0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    58.4%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q2 13:29DUKE 4th & 3 at DUKE 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.1%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.2%
    average punt
  3. Q3 13:01DUKE 4th & 8 at PITT 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.7%−0.7
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.4%
    average punt
  4. Q3 8:46PITT 4th & 18 at PITT 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.2%−4.2
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.4%
    average punt
  5. Q3 4:24DUKE 4th & 5 at PITT 5, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 47.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.2%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.4%
    92% to make
    Punt
    32.8%−13.6
    average punt
  6. Q4 13:22PITT 4th & 11 at DUKE 20, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 48.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.3%−3.2
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.5%
    75% to make
    Punt
    36.2%−12.3
    average punt
  7. Q4 2:56DUKE 4th & 3 at DUKE 43, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 4.0 ptsPunted · 50.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.2%−4.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PITT made the numbers' call on 4 of 4DUKE made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 8:19DUKE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:27DUKE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:51PITT Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:04PITT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 7:56DUKE Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 1:17PITT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 0:00DUKE Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 13:07DUKE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.7%−0.3
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 5:18PITT Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.3%−1.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PITTDrive 1DOWNS
10 plays · 38 yds · 4:0756% → 57%
Q1 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+12
56.2%
James Conner run for 12 yds to the Pitt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-3
56.2%
Chad Voytik sacked by TEAM for a loss of 3 yards to the Pitt 31Similar
Q1 13:31
2ND & 13
OWN 31
+7
56.3%
James Conner run for 7 yds to the Pitt 38Similar
Q1 13:11
3RD & 6
OWN 38
+7
56.3%
Chad Voytik pass complete to Tyler Boyd for 7 yds to the Pitt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+18
56.6%
James Conner run for 18 yds to the Duke 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+7
56.8%
Chris James run for 7 yds to the Duke 30Similar
Q1 11:02
2ND & 3
OPP 30
0
57.1%
Chris James run for no gain to the Duke 30Similar
Q1 10:43
3RD & 3
OPP 30
0
57.0%
Chad Voytik pass incomplete to James ConnerSimilar
Q1 10:39
4TH & 3
OPP 30
-10
56.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 10 yards to the Duke 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 2TD
7 plays · 60 yds · 1:4944% → 47%
Q1 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
56.1%
Shaquille Powell run for 6 yds to the Duke 46Similar
Q1 9:55
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+5
56.0%
Boone, Anthony pass complete to Crowder, Jamison for 3 yards to the DUKE49, PENALTY PITTSBURGH offside defense (Soto, Shakir) 5 yards to the PITTSBURGH49, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN DUKE. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:37
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
55.9%
Anthony Boone pass complete to David Reeves for 5 yds to the Pitt 44Similar
Q1 9:34
2ND & 5
OPP 44
-5
55.8%
DUKE Penalty, False Start (Matt Skura) to the Pitt 49Similar
Q1 9:00
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+9
55.8%
Shaun Wilson run for 9 yds to the Pitt 40Similar
Q1 8:40
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+1
55.7%
Shaun Wilson run for 1 yd to the Pitt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
53.2%
Jamison Crowder 39 Yd pass from Anthony Boone (Ross Martin Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 3TD
11 plays · 82 yds · 4:3654% → 58%
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+14
53.8%
James Conner run for 14 yds to the Pitt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
53.8%
James Conner run for 4 yds to the Pitt 36Similar
Q1 6:53
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+7
53.9%
Chris James run for 7 yds to the Pitt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+16
54.0%
Chad Voytik pass complete to Tyler Boyd for 16 yds to the Duke 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+9
54.2%
James Conner run for 9 yds to the Duke 32Similar
Q1 5:16
2ND & 1
OPP 32
+2
54.5%
James Conner run for 2 yds to the Duke 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:27
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+8
54.4%
James Conner run for 8 yds to the Duke 22Similar
Q1 3:20
2ND & 2
OPP 22
+7
54.2%
Chad Voytik run for 7 yds to the Duke 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:14
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+14
54.2%
James Conner run for 14 yds to the Duke 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
58.4%
James Conner run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 4TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:2844% → 51%
Q1 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
56.5%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Jamison Crowder for 5 yds to the Duke 30Similar
Q1 2:35
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+20
55.7%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Jamison Crowder for 5 yds to the Duke 35 for a 1ST down PITTSBURGH Penalty, Personal Foul (Lafayette Pitts) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:20
1ST & 10
50
+16
54.8%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Shaun Wilson for 16 yds to the Pitt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
54.4%
Shaun Wilson run for 4 yds to the Pitt 30Similar
Q1 1:30
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+7
54.2%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Shaun Wilson for 7 yds to the Pitt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+9
54.1%
Shaun Wilson run for 9 yds to the Pitt 14Similar
Q1 0:45
2ND & 1
OPP 14
+4
54.1%
Josh Snead run for 4 yds to the Pitt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
54.0%
Anthony Boone pass incomplete to Johnell BarnesSimilar
Q1 0:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
48.9%
Shaun Wilson 10 Yd pass from Anthony Boone (Ross Martin Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 5TD
4 plays · 32 yds · 0:0953% → 59%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+19
53.1%
Chad Voytik pass complete to Manasseh Garner for 19 yds to the Duke 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 6
OPP 13
0
53.1%
Chad Voytik pass incomplete, broken up by Dezmond JohnsonSimilar
Q2 14:51
3RD & 6
OPP 13
+13
58.6%
Chad Voytik 13 Yd Run (Chris Blewitt Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:0144% → 43%
Q2 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
56.0%
Shaun Wilson run for 2 yds to the Duke 28Similar
Q2 14:22
2ND & 8
OWN 28
-5
55.9%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Issac Blakeney for 5 yds to the Duke 33 DUKE Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Duke 23Similar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 13
OWN 23
+10
56.2%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Shaun Wilson for 10 yds to the Duke 33Similar
Q2 13:45
3RD & 3
OWN 33
0
55.8%
Anthony Boone pass incomplete to Shaun WilsonSimilar
Q2 13:29
4TH & 3
OWN 33
0
56.7%
Will Monday punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Tyler Boyd at the Pitt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 7TD
7 plays · 68 yds · 3:1557% → 66%
Q2 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
57.4%
DUKE Penalty, Offside Defense (Jamal Bruce) to the Pitt 37Similar
Q2 12:47
1ST & 5
OWN 37
+4
58.5%
James Conner run for 4 yds to the Pitt 41Similar
Q2 12:15
2ND & 1
OWN 41
+48
58.8%
Chad Voytik pass complete to Tyler Boyd for 48 yds to the Duke 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:38
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+6
59.7%
James Conner run for 6 yds to the Duke 5Similar
Q2 10:42
2ND & 4
OPP 5
0
59.9%
Chad Voytik run for no gain to the Duke 5 Chad Voytik fumbled, recovered by Pitt Chad VoytikSimilar
Q2 10:31
3RD & 4
OPP 5
-6
59.2%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, False Start (Adam Bisnowaty) to the Duke 11Similar
Q2 10:04
3RD & 10
OPP 11
+11
65.5%
Chad Voytik pass complete to J.P. Holtz for 11 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 8TD
6 plays · 77 yds · 1:3936% → 48%
Q2 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+8
64.1%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Max McCaffrey for 8 yds to the Duke 31Similar
Q2 9:23
2ND & 2
OWN 31
+4
63.0%
Joseph Ajeigbe run for 4 yds to the Duke 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+17
64.0%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Jamison Crowder for 17 yds to the Pitt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
62.5%
Joseph Ajeigbe run for 3 yds to the Pitt 45Similar
Q2 7:56
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+45
52.3%
Jamison Crowder 45 Yd pass from Anthony Boone (Ross Martin Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 9TD
14 plays · 85 yds · 6:1857% → 71%
Q2 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+7
57.3%
Chad Voytik pass complete to Scott Orndoff for 7 yds to the Pitt 22Similar
Q2 7:00
2ND & 3
OWN 22
+5
57.8%
James Conner run for 5 yds to the Pitt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
57.7%
Chad Voytik pass complete to Adonis Jennings for 7 yds to the Pitt 34Similar
Q2 5:52
2ND & 3
OWN 34
+2
59.0%
James Conner run for 2 yds to the Pitt 36Similar
Q2 5:22
3RD & 1
OWN 36
+3
58.4%
James Conner run for 3 yds to the Pitt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
58.8%
Chris James run for 4 yds to the Pitt 43Similar
Q2 4:03
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+2
60.0%
Isaac Bennett run for 2 yds to the Pitt 45Similar
Q2 3:30
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+10
59.3%
Chad Voytik run for 10 yds to the Duke 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:56
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+29
60.7%
Chad Voytik pass complete to Tyler Boyd for 29 yds to the Duke 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:26
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
61.1%
Chad Voytik pass incomplete to Tyler BoydSimilar
Q2 2:15
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+13
61.2%
Chad Voytik pass complete to Tyler Boyd for 13 yds to the Duke 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
61.5%
James Conner run for no gain to the Duke 3Similar
Q2 1:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
71.2%
Chad Voytik pass complete to J.P. Holtz for 3 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 10END OF HALF
14 plays · 75 yds · 1:0032% → 51%
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
67.7%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Jamison Crowder for 11 yds to the Duke 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
66.9%
Anthony Boone pass incomplete to Jamison CrowderSimilar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+14
67.4%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Shaquille Powell for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
50
+6
65.0%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Erich Schneider for 6 yds to the Pitt 44Similar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 4
OPP 44
0
64.1%
Anthony Boone pass incomplete to Erich SchneiderSimilar
Q2 0:25
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+4
64.9%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Erich Schneider for 4 yds to the Pitt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
65.8%
Anthony Boone pass incomplete to Issac BlakeneySimilar
Q2 0:12
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+12
66.1%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Shaquille Powell for 12 yds to the Pitt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+27
65.8%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Jamison Crowder for 27 yds to the Pitt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
48.9%
Thomas Sirk run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ross Martin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 1:3547% → 46%
Q3 14:36
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+19
53.5%
Josh Snead run for 19 yds to the Duke 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
50.9%
Anthony Boone pass incomplete to Max McCaffreySimilar
Q3 14:10
2ND & 10
OWN 49
-1
51.5%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Shaquille Powell for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 48Similar
Q3 13:33
3RD & 11
OWN 48
+3
53.2%
Anthony Boone run for 3 yds to the Pitt 49Similar
Q3 13:01
4TH & 8
OPP 49
0
53.9%
Will Monday punt for 47 yds, downed at the Pitt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 12PUNT
9 plays · 28 yds · 4:0757% → 55%
Q3 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+10
57.1%
James Conner run for 10 yds to the Pitt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+7
57.2%
James Conner run for 7 yds to the Pitt 19Similar
Q3 11:30
2ND & 3
OWN 19
+8
57.4%
James Conner run for 8 yds to the Pitt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
57.5%
Chad Voytik pass complete to Jaymar Parrish for 8 yds to the Pitt 35Similar
Q3 10:43
2ND & 2
OWN 35
+3
59.3%
Chris James run for 3 yds to the Pitt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
58.9%
Chad Voytik pass incomplete to Jaymar ParrishSimilar
Q3 9:45
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+5
58.6%
Rachid Ibrahim run for 5 yds to the Pitt 43Similar
Q3 8:59
3RD & 5
OWN 43
-13
59.2%
Chad Voytik sacked by Dwayne Norman for a loss of 13 yards to the Pitt 30Similar
Q3 8:46
4TH & 18
OWN 30
+3
54.7%
Ryan Winslow punt for 35 yds , Jamison Crowder returns for 3 yds to the Duke 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 13FG
10 plays · 57 yds · 4:1648% → 56%
Q3 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
52.3%
Shaquille Powell run for 9 yds to the Duke 47Similar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 1
OWN 47
+16
50.2%
Anthony Boone run for 16 yds to the Pitt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+13
50.1%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Jamison Crowder for 13 yds to the Pitt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+6
48.4%
Josh Snead run for 6 yds to the Pitt 18Similar
Q3 6:30
2ND & 4
OPP 18
+2
48.3%
Anthony Boone run for 2 yds to the Pitt 16Similar
Q3 6:07
3RD & 2
OPP 16
+6
49.8%
Anthony Boone run for 6 yds to the Pitt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
48.1%
Anthony Boone pass incomplete to Johnell BarnesSimilar
Q3 5:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
-1
48.1%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Shaquille Powell for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 11Similar
Q3 4:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
+6
49.7%
Anthony Boone pass complete to David Reeves for 6 yds to the Pitt 5Similar
Q3 4:24
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
43.9%
Ross Martin 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 14FG
15 plays · 62 yds · 5:4747% → 57%
Q3 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+19
47.3%
James Conner run for 19 yds to the Pitt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
48.7%
Chad Voytik run for 8 yds to the Pitt 45Similar
Q3 2:58
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+2
51.3%
James Conner run for 2 yds to the Pitt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+12
51.4%
James Conner run for 12 yds to the Duke 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:01
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
52.2%
James Conner run for 3 yds to the Duke 38Similar
Q3 1:32
2ND & 7
OPP 38
-5
52.0%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, False Start (Jaryd Jones-Smith) to the Duke 43Similar
Q3 1:03
2ND & 12
OPP 43
-5
49.4%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, False Start (J.P. Holtz) to the Duke 48Similar
Q3 0:35
2ND & 17
OPP 48
+18
48.8%
Chad Voytik run for 18 yds to the Duke 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+11
54.2%
James Conner run for 11 yds to the Duke 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+9
54.2%
James Conner run for 9 yds to the Duke 10Similar
Q4 14:00
2ND & 1
OPP 10
-10
54.2%
Chad Voytik run for a loss of 10 yards to the Duke 20Similar
Q4 13:28
3RD & 11
OPP 20
0
48.8%
Chad Voytik pass incomplete to Tyler BoydSimilar
Q4 13:22
4TH & 11
OPP 20
+38
57.0%
Chris Blewitt 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 16TD
16 plays · 81 yds · 7:1228% → 62%
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
28.3%
James Conner run for 5 yds to the Pitt 24Similar
Q4 12:10
2ND & 5
OWN 24
+9
28.8%
Chad Voytik pass complete to Tyler Boyd for 9 yds to the Pitt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
28.9%
James Conner run for 7 yds to the Pitt 40Similar
Q4 10:38
2ND & 3
OWN 40
-8
31.6%
James Conner run for 2 yds to the Pitt 42 PITTSBURGH Penalty, Offensive Holding (J.P. Holtz) to the Pitt 32Similar
Q4 10:15
2ND & 11
OWN 32
+5
25.5%
Rachid Ibrahim run for 5 yds to the Pitt 37Similar
Q4 9:45
3RD & 6
OWN 37
+8
26.0%
Chad Voytik pass complete to Kevin Weatherspoon for 8 yds to the Pitt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
29.2%
Chad Voytik pass incomplete to Adonis JenningsSimilar
Q4 8:35
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+2
27.4%
James Conner run for 2 yds to the Pitt 47Similar
Q4 8:20
3RD & 8
OWN 47
+18
26.5%
Chad Voytik pass complete to Tyler Boyd for 18 yds to the Duke 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
32.3%
Isaac Bennett run for 5 yds to the Duke 30Similar
Q4 7:40
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+8
32.1%
James Conner run for 8 yds to the Duke 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+14
30.9%
James Conner run for 14 yds to the Duke 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
30.3%
James Conner run for 5 yds to the Duke 3Similar
Q4 5:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
29.0%
James Conner run for 2 yds to the Duke 1Similar
Q4 5:18
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
61.8%
James Conner run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 2:0451% → 53%
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
49.1%
Shaun Wilson run for 3 yds to the Duke 25Similar
Q4 4:30
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+11
48.5%
Shaun Wilson run for 11 yds to the Duke 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
46.6%
Anthony Boone pass incomplete to Max McCaffrey, broken up by Reggie MitchellSimilar
Q4 4:04
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+4
47.7%
Shaun Wilson run for 4 yds to the Duke 40Similar
Q4 3:20
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+3
45.8%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Jamison Crowder for 3 yds to the Duke 43Similar
Q4 2:56
4TH & 3
OWN 43
0
47.0%
Will Monday punt for 57 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 18DOWNS
14 plays · 72 yds · 2:4356% → 66%
Q4 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
55.8%
Chris James run for 5 yds to the Pitt 25Similar
Q4 2:16
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+4
56.5%
Chris James run for 4 yds to the Pitt 29Similar
Q4 1:44
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+2
54.5%
James Conner run for 2 yds to the Pitt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
56.4%
Chad Voytik run for 6 yds to the Pitt 37Similar
Q4 1:14
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+8
59.3%
Chad Voytik run for 8 yds to the Pitt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
61.0%
Chad Voytik pass complete to Isaac Bennett for 7 yds to the Duke 48Similar
Q4 0:37
2ND & 3
OPP 48
0
63.1%
Chad Voytik pass incomplete to Isaac BennettSimilar
Q4 0:28
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+26
61.5%
Chad Voytik pass complete to Dontez Ford for 26 yds to the Duke 22 for a 1ST down DUKE Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Bryon Fields) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:21
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+11
65.9%
Chad Voytik run for 11 yds to the Duke 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:02
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
65.9%
Chad Voytik run for 3 yds to the Duke 8Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 8
+26
65.9%
Chris Blewitt 26 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 19TD
3 plays · 25 yds · 0:0060% → 78%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
40.5%
Shaquille Powell run for 6 yds to the Pitt 19Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 4
OPP 19
+7
40.5%
Anthony Boone run for 7 yds to the Pitt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
22.0%
Anthony Boone run for 12 yds for a TD, (Ross Martin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 20TD
3 plays · 25 yds · 0:0028% → 65%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
28.1%
James Conner run for 9 yds to the Duke 16Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 1
OPP 16
+2
28.1%
James Conner run for 2 yds to the Duke 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
64.7%
James Conner run for 14 yds for a TD James Conner run for 14 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 21FG
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0065% → 79%
OT2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
64.7%
Chris James run for no gain to the Duke 25Similar
OT2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
64.5%
Chad Voytik run for no gain to the Duke 25Similar
OT2 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 25
0
61.8%
Chad Voytik pass incomplete to Tyler BoydSimilar
OT2 0:00
4TH & 10
OPP 25
+43
78.6%
Chris Blewitt 43 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 22TD
4 plays · 25 yds · 0:0029% → 88%
OT2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+12
70.9%
Shaquille Powell run for 12 yds to the Pitt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+7
70.9%
Shaquille Powell run for 7 yds to the Pitt 6Similar
OT2 0:00
2ND & 3
OPP 6
+1
70.9%
Anthony Boone run for 1 yd to the Pitt 5Similar
OT2 0:00
3RD & 2
OPP 5
+5
12.2%
Thomas Sirk 5 Yd Run Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · OT2 0:00
Thomas Sirk 5 Yd Run
-58.7
TD · OT 0:00
James Conner run for 14 yds for a TD James Conner run for 14 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK)
+36.6
TD · Q4 5:18
James Conner run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK)
+32.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com