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UVA

Virginia 13 at Duke 20

DUKE
2014 · Week 8 · Oct 18, 2014 · Wallace Wade Stadium
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Win probability · DUKE
modelDUKE aheadUVA aheadconfidence bandkey playDUKE scoreUVA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 5:48 · Alec Vozenilek punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jamison Crowder at the Duke 20
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+26.0+13.00−13.0−26.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 30Pregame prior+9.9Home team on offense+1.4Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.4Score differential+0.3Blowout margin+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:11: Matt Johns pass complete to Khalek Shepherd for 5 yds for a TD, (Andre Levrone KICK), (Ian Frye KICK) — UVA win probability +5.7 pts (now 40%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  2. FG · Q2 0:00: Ian Frye 21 yd FG GOOD — UVA win probability +10.2 pts (now 49%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 7:11: Ian Frye 30 yd FG GOOD — UVA win probability +4.0 pts (now 44%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 7:23: Thomas Sirk pass complete to David Reeves for 3 yds for a TD, (Ross Martin KICK) — DUKE win probability +23.5 pts (now 91%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 2:14: Shaquille Powell run for 6 yds to the Duke 46 — DUKE win probability +6.0 pts (now 95%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
DUKE made the numbers' call on 5 of 9UVA made the numbers' call on 4 of 8
  1. Q1 9:32UVA 4th & 25 at UVA 16, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.3%−0.4
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:27DUKE 4th & 13 at DUKE 27, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.9%−0.5
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:48UVA 4th & 6 at UVA 42, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.9%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.0%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:24DUKE 4th & 1 at UVA 1, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsKicked a field goal · 69.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.9%
    59% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.5%−1.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    64.0%−4.9
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:06DUKE 4th & 9 at UVA 41, up 3
    Close callPunted · 64.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.7%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    63.3%−0.5
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    63.6%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:10UVA 4th & 6 at DUKE 34, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 36.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.4%−0.3
    47% to make
    Punt
    34.1%−1.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:10DUKE 4th & 4 at DUKE 41, up 3
    Close callPunted · 64.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.8%−0.5
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:35DUKE 4th & 6 at UVA 7, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.5%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.8%
    91% to make
    Punt
    52.5%−9.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:11UVA 4th & 12 at DUKE 13, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.0%−2.3
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.3%
    85% to make
    Punt
    24.5%−9.8
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:11DUKE 4th & 12 at DUKE 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.0%−2.3
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:30UVA 4th & 2 at UVA 46, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 44.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.6%−1.6
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:28DUKE 4th & 5 at DUKE 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.8%−1.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.0%
    average punt
  13. Q4 15:00UVA 4th & 13 at DUKE 38, tied
    Close callPunted · 43.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.5%−1.4
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    43.9%
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    43.7%−0.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:18DUKE 4th & 9 at DUKE 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.3%−4.9
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.2%
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:44UVA 4th & 10 at UVA 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.9%−5.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.2%
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:58UVA 4th & 12 at DUKE 40, down 7
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.0 ptsWent for it · 13.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.1%−1.0
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    13.1%
    34% to make
    Punt
    11.3%−1.8
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:33DUKE 4th & 2 at DUKE 48, up 7
    Close callPunted · 95.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.0%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
DUKE made the numbers' call on 2 of 2UVA made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 9:37DUKE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:11UVA Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 7:23DUKE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.2%−1.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UVADrive 1FUMBLE
3 plays · 37 yds · 0:0038% → 38%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
61.7%
Kevin Parks run for 5 yds to the Virg 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+19
61.7%
Matt Johns pass complete to Miles Gooch for 19 yds Miles Gooch fumbled, forced by Jeremy Cash, recovered by Duke Jonathan JonesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 2TD
8 plays · 62 yds · 3:2662% → 64%
Q1 13:03
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+9
62.0%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Issac Blakeney for 9 yds to the Virg 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:03
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+8
62.0%
Josh Snead run for 8 yds to the Virg 16Similar
Q1 13:03
2ND & 2
OPP 16
+2
62.0%
Josh Snead run for 2 yds to the Virg 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:03
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+12
62.0%
Boone, A pass incomplete to Crowder, J, PENALTY VA pass interference 12 yards to the VA2, 1ST DOWN DU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
62.0%
Thomas Sirk run for 1 yd to the Virg 1Similar
Q1 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+27
61.8%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Jamison Crowder for 27 yds to the Virg 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:03
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
62.0%
Josh Snead run for 2 yds to the Virg 33Similar
Q1 9:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
64.2%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Erich Schneider for 1 yd for a TD, (Ross Martin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 3PUNT
9 plays · -2 yds · 0:0037% → 36%
Q1 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
63.5%
Kevin Parks run for 5 yds to the Virg 23Similar
Q1 9:32
2ND & 5
OWN 23
0
63.4%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Darius JenningsSimilar
Q1 9:32
3RD & 5
OWN 23
+8
63.7%
Matt Johns pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 8 yds to the Virg 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-15
63.4%
Johns, M pass complete to Parks, K for 5 yards to the VA36 (Cash, J;Helton, D), PENALTY VA pass interference 15 yards to the VA16, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:32
1ST & 25
OWN 16
0
63.5%
Matt Johns pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:32
2ND & 25
OWN 16
0
63.6%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Kevin ParksSimilar
Q1 9:32
3RD & 25
OWN 16
0
63.8%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Miles Gooch, broken up by Breon BordersSimilar
Q1 9:32
4TH & 25
OWN 16
0
63.9%
Alec Vozenilek punt for 54 yds , Jamison Crowder returns for no gain to the Duke 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:0064% → 64%
Q1 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-7
64.3%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Johnell Barnes for a loss of 7 yards Johnell Barnes fumbled, recovered by Duke Jamison CrowderSimilar
Q1 7:27
2ND & 22
OWN 18
+9
64.1%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Johnell Barnes for 9 yds to the Duke 27Similar
Q1 7:27
3RD & 13
OWN 27
0
63.9%
Anthony Boone pass incomplete to Jamison CrowderSimilar
Q1 7:27
4TH & 13
OWN 27
0
63.6%
Will Monday punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Virg 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q1 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
64.6%
Khalek Shepherd run for 5 yds to the Virg 31Similar
Q1 5:48
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+7
64.3%
Khalek Shepherd run for 7 yds to the Virg 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
64.2%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Miles GoochSimilar
Q1 5:48
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+4
64.3%
Khalek Shepherd run for 4 yds to the Virg 42Similar
Q1 5:48
3RD & 6
OWN 42
0
64.3%
Matt Johns pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:48
4TH & 6
OWN 42
0
64.7%
Alec Vozenilek punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jamison Crowder at the Duke 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 6FG
15 plays · 79 yds · 6:2165% → 68%
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
65.4%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Issac Blakeney for 5 yds to the Duke 25Similar
Q1 3:45
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+4
65.5%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Issac Blakeney for 4 yds to the Duke 29Similar
Q1 3:45
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+3
65.3%
Shaun Wilson run for 3 yds to the Duke 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
65.6%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Jamison Crowder for 1 yd to the Duke 33Similar
Q1 3:45
2ND & 9
OWN 33
-2
65.5%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Jamison Crowder for 8 yds to the Duke 41 DUKE Penalty, Offensive holding (NA) to the Duke 31Similar
Q1 3:45
2ND & 11
OWN 31
0
65.4%
Anthony Boone pass incomplete to Erich SchneiderSimilar
Q1 3:45
3RD & 11
OWN 31
+14
65.0%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Issac Blakeney for 14 yds to the Duke 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+13
66.3%
Shaun Wilson run for 13 yds to the Virg 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
66.4%
Anthony Boone run for 6 yds to the Virg 36Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 36
+6
67.5%
Anthony Boone run for 6 yds to the Virg 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+26
67.6%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Jamison Crowder for 26 yds to the Virg 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
67.6%
Shaun Wilson run for 1 yd to the Virg 3Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
67.6%
Shaun Wilson run for 2 yds to the Virg 1Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
67.2%
Joseph Ajeigbe run for no gain to the Virg 1Similar
Q2 12:24
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+19
68.1%
Ross Martin 19 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 7TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:1332% → 40%
Q2 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
68.4%
Matt Johns pass complete to Miles Gooch for 11 yds to the Virg 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
67.9%
Matt Johns pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:24
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+2
68.1%
Matt Johns run for 2 yds to the Virg 38Similar
Q2 12:24
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+33
68.1%
Matt Johns pass complete to Darius Jennings for 33 yds to the Duke 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:24
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
66.1%
Kevin Parks run for 3 yds to the Duke 26Similar
Q2 12:24
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+21
66.1%
Matt Johns pass complete to Zachary Swanson for 21 yds to the Duke 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
66.1%
Kevin Parks run for no gain to the Duke 5Similar
Q2 12:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
66.1%
Matt Johns pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
60.4%
Matt Johns pass complete to Khalek Shepherd for 5 yds for a TD, (Andre Levrone KICK), (Ian Frye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 8PUNT
9 plays · 32 yds · 0:0063% → 62%
Q2 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
62.7%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Johnell Barnes for 5 yds to the Duke 32Similar
Q2 9:06
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+8
63.3%
Anthony Boone pass complete to David Reeves for 8 yds to the Duke 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
63.8%
Joseph Ajeigbe run for 4 yds to the Duke 44Similar
Q2 9:06
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+14
64.3%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Max McCaffrey for 14 yds to the Virg 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:06
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
64.7%
Joseph Ajeigbe run for 1 yd to the Virg 41Similar
Q2 9:06
2ND & 9
OPP 41
0
64.6%
Anthony Boone pass incomplete to Max McCaffreySimilar
Q2 9:06
3RD & 9
OPP 41
0
63.9%
Anthony Boone pass incomplete to David ReevesSimilar
Q2 9:06
4TH & 9
OPP 41
0
62.1%
Will Monday punt for 41 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 9MISSED FG
12 plays · 46 yds · 4:2337% → 37%
Q2 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
63.1%
Kevin Parks run for 5 yds to the Virg 25Similar
Q2 6:33
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+4
62.6%
Kevin Parks run for 4 yds to the Virg 29Similar
Q2 6:33
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+10
63.0%
Matt Johns pass complete to Connor Wingo-Reeves for 10 yds to the Virg 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
61.8%
Kevin Parks run for 5 yds to the Virg 44Similar
Q2 6:33
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+7
61.1%
Matt Johns pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 7 yds to the Duke 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
60.7%
Matt Johns pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:33
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+11
60.9%
Taquan Mizzell run for 11 yds to the Duke 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
60.7%
Taquan Mizzell run for 2 yds to the Duke 36Similar
Q2 6:33
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+2
60.7%
Matt Johns run for 2 yds to the Duke 34Similar
Q2 6:33
3RD & 6
OPP 34
0
60.9%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Andre LevroneSimilar
Q2 2:10
4TH & 6
OPP 34
+52
63.1%
Ian Frye 52 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0065% → 64%
Q2 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
64.9%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Issac Blakeney for 3 yds to the Duke 38Similar
Q2 2:10
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+3
66.1%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Max McCaffrey for 3 yds to the Duke 41Similar
Q2 2:10
3RD & 4
OWN 41
0
65.7%
Anthony Boone pass incomplete to Johnell BarnesSimilar
Q2 2:10
4TH & 4
OWN 41
+5
64.2%
Will Monday punt for 53 yds , Khalek Shepherd returns for 5 yds to the Virg 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 11FG
10 plays · 85 yds · 1:0536% → 49%
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+21
64.5%
Matt Johns pass complete to Andre Levrone for 21 yds to the Virg 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
63.7%
Matt Johns pass complete to Andre Levrone for 5 yds to the Virg 37Similar
Q2 1:05
2ND & 5
OWN 37
0
62.7%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Andre LevroneSimilar
Q2 1:05
3RD & 5
OWN 37
+6
63.7%
Matt Johns pass complete to Kyle Dockins for 6 yds to the Virg 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
64.1%
Matt Johns pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:24
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+15
64.5%
Matt Johns pass complete to Miles Gooch for 15 yds to the Duke 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+38
62.3%
Matt Johns pass complete to Miles Gooch for 38 yds to the Duke 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
51.4%
Ian Frye 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 12FG
13 plays · 68 yds · 4:2560% → 66%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
60.4%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Issac Blakeney for 7 yds to the Duke 32Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+8
62.1%
Anthony Boone run for 8 yds to the Duke 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
62.3%
Shaquille Powell run for 8 yds to the Duke 48Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+6
63.2%
Shaquille Powell run for 6 yds to the Virg 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
63.6%
Shaquille Powell run for 4 yds to the Virg 42Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+7
63.7%
Shaquille Powell run for 7 yds to the Virg 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+9
64.2%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Jamison Crowder for 9 yds to the Virg 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 26
+15
64.3%
Boone, A pass incomplete to Blakeney, I, PENALTY VA pass interference 15 yards to the VA11, 1ST DOWN DU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
64.3%
Shaquille Powell run for 4 yds to the Virg 7Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 7
0
64.3%
Anthony Boone pass incomplete to Issac BlakeneySimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 7
0
63.2%
Anthony Boone pass incomplete to Jamison CrowderSimilar
Q3 10:35
4TH & 6
OPP 7
+25
65.9%
Ross Martin 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 13FG
9 plays · 62 yds · 3:2436% → 44%
Q3 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
63.7%
Darius Jennings run for 9 yds to the Virg 34Similar
Q3 10:35
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+9
61.7%
Kevin Parks run for 9 yds to the Virg 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+20
61.0%
Matt Johns pass complete to Darius Jennings for 20 yds to the DUKE 37 for a 1ST down DUKE Penalty, Defensive holding (NA) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+26
60.1%
Kevin Parks run for 26 yds to the Duke 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
58.6%
Kevin Parks run for 2 yds to the Duke 9Similar
Q3 10:35
2ND & 8
OPP 9
-4
58.6%
Darius Jennings run for a loss of 4 yards to the Duke 13Similar
Q3 10:35
3RD & 12
OPP 13
0
60.5%
Matt Johns pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:11
4TH & 12
OPP 13
+30
56.5%
Ian Frye 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 14PUNT
9 plays · 23 yds · 0:0060% → 58%
Q3 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
59.5%
Anthony Boone run for 4 yds to the Duke 29Similar
Q3 7:11
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
60.0%
Anthony Boone pass incomplete to Josh SneadSimilar
Q3 7:11
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+21
58.5%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Jamison Crowder for 21 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:11
1ST & 10
50
+1
63.3%
Josh Snead run for 1 yd to the Virg 49Similar
Q3 7:11
2ND & 9
OPP 49
-5
63.3%
Boone, A pass complete to Barnes, J for 5 yards to the VA44 (Hoskey, D;Blanding, Q), PENALTY DU illegal formation 5 yards to the DU46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:11
2ND & 14
OWN 46
+2
60.5%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Jamison Crowder for 2 yds to the Duke 48Similar
Q3 7:11
3RD & 12
OWN 48
0
59.7%
Anthony Boone pass incomplete, broken up by Eli HaroldSimilar
Q3 7:11
4TH & 12
OWN 48
0
58.0%
Will Monday punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Miles Gooch at the Virg 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 29 yds · 0:0045% → 46%
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
55.2%
Kevin Parks run for no gain to the Virg 17Similar
Q3 4:30
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+7
55.9%
Matt Johns pass complete to Kevin Parks for 7 yds to the Virg 24Similar
Q3 4:30
3RD & 3
OWN 24
+14
56.0%
Matt Johns pass complete to Miles Gooch for 14 yds to the Virg 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
53.3%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Darius JenningsSimilar
Q3 4:30
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+8
53.5%
Khalek Shepherd run for 8 yds to the Virg 46Similar
Q3 4:30
3RD & 2
OWN 46
0
52.1%
Khalek Shepherd run for no gain to the Virg 46Similar
Q3 4:30
4TH & 2
OWN 46
0
54.5%
Alec Vozenilek punt for 54 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0059% → 56%
Q3 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
58.6%
Anthony Boone pass incomplete to Jamison CrowderSimilar
Q3 1:28
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+5
58.4%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Jamison Crowder for 5 yds to the Duke 25Similar
Q3 1:28
3RD & 5
OWN 25
0
57.4%
Anthony Boone pass incomplete to Jamison Crowder, broken up by Maurice CanadySimilar
Q3 1:28
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
55.6%
Will Monday punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Khalek Shepherd at the Virg 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 17PUNT
11 plays · 26 yds · 0:4147% → 44%
Q3 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
53.1%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Darius JenningsSimilar
Q3 0:41
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+9
53.9%
Khalek Shepherd run for 9 yds to the Virg 45Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+1
50.9%
Kevin Parks run for 1 yd to the Virg 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
50.5%
Matt Johns pass complete to Canaan Severin for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
50
0
49.8%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Kyle Dockins, broken up by Deondre SingletonSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
50
+15
50.4%
Johns, M pass incomplete to Levrone, A, PENALTY DU pass interference 15 yards to the DU35, 1ST DOWN VA, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
48.3%
Darius Jennings run for 2 yds to the Duke 33Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 33
-5
48.3%
VIRGINIA Penalty, false start (NA) to the Duke 38Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 13
OPP 38
0
51.2%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Miles Gooch, broken up by Breon BordersSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 13
OPP 38
0
52.9%
Matt Johns pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 13
OPP 38
0
55.9%
Alec Vozenilek punt for 38 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0058% → 55%
Q4 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
58.3%
Joseph Ajeigbe run for 1 yd to the Duke 21Similar
Q4 12:18
2ND & 9
OWN 21
0
58.1%
Anthony Boone pass incomplete to Jamison Crowder, broken up by Anthony HarrisSimilar
Q4 12:18
3RD & 9
OWN 21
0
56.1%
Anthony Boone pass incomplete to Johnell BarnesSimilar
Q4 12:18
4TH & 9
OWN 21
0
54.8%
Will Monday punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Khalek Shepherd at the Virg 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:4048% → 43%
Q4 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
52.5%
Kevin Parks run for no gain to the Virg 33Similar
Q4 10:44
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
54.2%
Matt Johns pass incomplete, broken up by Jeremy CashSimilar
Q4 10:44
3RD & 10
OWN 33
0
55.9%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Andre Levrone, broken up by Deondre SingletonSimilar
Q4 10:44
4TH & 10
OWN 33
0
57.3%
Alec Vozenilek punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Duke 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 20TD
9 plays · 65 yds · 3:0361% → 91%
Q4 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
60.9%
Shaquille Powell run for 6 yds to the Duke 41Similar
Q4 10:26
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+13
64.2%
Shaquille Powell run for 13 yds to the Virg 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
65.5%
Anthony Boone pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:26
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+7
65.2%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Johnell Barnes for 7 yds to the Virg 39Similar
Q4 10:26
3RD & 3
OPP 39
+9
65.0%
Shaquille Powell run for 9 yds to the Virg 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
67.4%
Anthony Boone pass incomplete to David ReevesSimilar
Q4 10:26
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+23
67.2%
Anthony Boone run for 23 yds to the Virg 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
67.4%
Shaquille Powell run for 4 yds to the Virg 3Similar
Q4 7:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
90.9%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to David Reeves for 3 yds for a TD, (Ross Martin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 21DOWNS
15 plays · 35 yds · 1:2514% → 11%
Q4 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
85.8%
Kevin Parks run for 4 yds to the Virg 29Similar
Q4 7:23
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
84.6%
Taquan Mizzell run for 5 yds to the Virg 34Similar
Q4 5:58
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
87.7%
Kevin Parks run for 2 yds to the Virg 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
88.1%
Matt Johns pass complete to Canaan Severin for 7 yds to the Virg 43Similar
Q4 5:58
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+4
86.7%
Kevin Parks run for 4 yds to the Virg 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-8
86.8%
Johns, M pass complete to Shepherd, K for 2 yards to the VA49 (Jones, J), PENALTY VA holding 8 yards to the VA39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:58
1ST & 18
OWN 39
+4
89.0%
Matt Johns pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 4 yds to the Virg 43Similar
Q4 5:58
2ND & 14
OWN 43
+19
89.2%
Matt Johns pass complete to Miles Gooch for 19 yds to the Duke 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:58
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
85.7%
Taquan Mizzell run for 3 yds to the Duke 35Similar
Q4 5:58
2ND & 7
OPP 35
0
84.1%
Darius Jennings pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:58
3RD & 7
OPP 35
0
85.9%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Miles GoochSimilar
Q4 5:58
4TH & 7
OPP 35
-5
87.6%
VIRGINIA Penalty, delay of game (NA) to the Duke 40Similar
Q4 5:58
4TH & 12
OPP 40
0
89.4%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Canaan Severin, broken up by Evrett EdwardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 1:4195% → 97%
Q4 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
95.3%
Shaquille Powell run for 6 yds to the Duke 46Similar
Q4 2:07
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+1
95.4%
Shaquille Powell run for 1 yd to the Duke 47Similar
Q4 1:19
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+1
96.6%
Anthony Boone run for 1 yd to the Duke 48Similar
Q4 0:33
4TH & 2
OWN 48
+3
96.5%
Will Monday punt for 40 yds , Khalek Shepherd returns for 3 yds to the Virg 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 23END OF GAME
4 plays · 38 yds · 0:006% → 7%
Q4 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
93.6%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Miles GoochSimilar
Q4 0:23
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+26
93.8%
Matt Johns pass complete to Darius Jennings for 26 yds to the Virg 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
92.4%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:23
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+12
92.7%
Matt Johns pass complete to Doni Dowling for 12 yds to the Duke 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 7:23
Thomas Sirk pass complete to David Reeves for 3 yds for a TD, (Ross Martin KICK)
+23.5
FG · Q2 0:00
Ian Frye 21 yd FG GOOD
-10.2
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+7.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com