2014 · Week 7 · Oct 11, 2014 · Bobby Dodd Stadium
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Win probability · GT
modelGT aheadDUKE aheadconfidence bandkey playGT scoreDUKE score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 3:19 · Will Monday punt for 35 yds, fair catch by DeAndre Smelter at the GTech 10
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 4:36: Thomas Sirk 3 Yd Run (Ross Martin Kick) — DUKE win probability +13.2 pts (now 58%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:40: Zach Laskey 4 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) — GT win probability +9.8 pts (now 57%) (top driver: One-score game).
- TD · Q3 10:28: Josh Snead 4 Yd Run (Ross Martin Kick) — DUKE win probability +12.2 pts (now 63%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
- TD · Q4 5:04: Tim Byerly 11 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — GT win probability +10.9 pts (now 14%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
- TD · Q4 1:27: Tim Byerly 1 Yd Run (Harrison Butker Kick) — GT win probability +21.1 pts (now 24%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
GT made the numbers' call on 2 of 4DUKE made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
- Q1 13:54DUKE 4th & 10 at DUKE 39, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 33.1% before the snapGo for it33.1%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call33.1%average punt
- Q1 7:15GT 4th & 8 at DUKE 10, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 66.3% before the snapGo for it66.1%−0.128% to convertField goalTheir call66.3%88% to makePunt65.2%−1.1average punt
- Q2 14:13GT 4th & 3 at DUKE 8, down 4Close callKicked a field goal · 62.9% before the snapGo for it63.0%47% to convertField goalTheir call62.5%−0.490% to makePunt58.8%−4.2average punt
- Q2 11:59DUKE 4th & 2 at DUKE 33, up 1Close callPunted · 37.0% before the snapGo for it37.3%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call37.2%−0.1average punt
- Q2 9:13GT 4th & 8 at GT 49, down 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.6% before the snapGo for it62.2%−0.234% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call62.4%average punt
- Q3 9:02GT 4th & 7 at DUKE 35, down 9Close callKicked a field goal · 40.3% before the snapGo for it41.3%37% to convertField goalTheir call40.7%−0.645% to makePunt39.4%−1.9average punt
- Q3 6:09DUKE 4th & 5 at GT 15, up 9Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 64.2% before the snapGo for it62.8%−0.739% to convertField goalTheir call63.6%83% to makePunt54.2%−9.3average punt
- Q4 10:34DUKE 4th & 1 at GT 25, up 12Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call87.3%71% to convertField goal83.4%−3.966% to makePunt73.5%−13.8average punt
- Q4 3:19DUKE 4th & 13 at GT 45, up 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.1% before the snapGo for it95.7%−0.421% to convertField goal95.6%−0.425% to makePuntTheir call96.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GT made the numbers' call on 1 of 3DUKE made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
- Q1 2:35DUKE Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call36.8%97% to makeGo for two36.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:36DUKE Touchdown, up 7 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call49.9%97% to makeGo for two49.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:40GT Touchdown, down 2 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick60.1%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call59.9%−0.245% to convert
- Q3 10:28DUKE Touchdown, up 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call60.9%97% to makeGo for two60.7%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 8:18DUKE Touchdown, up 18 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call95.4%−0.497% to makeGo for two95.8%45% to convert
- Q4 5:04GT Touchdown, down 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersWent for two · failedKick7.5%−0.297% to makeGo for twoTheir call7.7%45% to convert
- Q4 1:27GT Touchdown, down 7 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call9.9%−0.897% to makeGo for two10.8%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartDUKEDrive 1PUNT6 plays · 14 yds · 0:5637% → 37%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
62.8%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Josh Snead for 6 yds to the Duke 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 2FG15 plays · 70 yds · 6:3063% → 63%
DUKEDrive 3TD15 plays · 75 yds · 4:3537% → 42%
Q1 6:20
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+8
63.4%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Shaun Wilson for 8 yds to the Duke 31Similar
Q1 5:46
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+5
63.7%
GEORGIA TECH Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Duke 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:12
2ND & 7
OWN 39
-15
62.6%
Boone, Anthony pass complete to Barnes, Johnell for 1 yard to the DUKE40, PENALTY DUKE illegal block (Wilson, Shaun) 15 yards to the DUKE24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 22
OPP 24
+44
62.2%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Shaun Wilson for 29 yds to the GATECH 47 for a 1ST down GEORGIA TECH Penalty, Personal Foul (Corey Griffin) to the GTech 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 4FG8 plays · 20 yds · 2:4862% → 61%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 5PUNT6 plays · 8 yds · 2:0141% → 41%
GTDrive 6PUNT6 plays · 18 yds · 2:3260% → 59%
Q2 9:13
4TH & 8
OWN 49
+10
59.4%
Ryan Rodwell punt for 43 yds , Jamison Crowder returns for 10 yds to the Duke 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 7TD13 plays · 82 yds · 4:2742% → 58%
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
57.1%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Max McCaffrey for 2 yds to the Duke 35Similar
Q2 7:46
3RD & 8
OWN 35
+4
56.9%
Boone, Anthony pass incomplete to Crowder, Jamison, PENALTY GATECH pass interference (Milton, Chris) 4 yards to the DUKE39, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN DUKE. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:03
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+13
54.1%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Jamison Crowder for 13 yds to the GTech 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:15
2ND & 5
OPP 12
-21
52.2%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Anthony Boone for a loss of 16 yards to the GTech 28 DUKE Penalty, Illegal Forward Pass (Anthony Boone) to the GTech 33Similar
Q2 5:00
3RD & 26
OPP 33
+30
55.0%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Max McCaffrey for 30 yds to the GTech 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 8TD15 plays · 75 yds · 3:3545% → 57%
DUKEDrive 9END OF HALF2 plays · 3 yds · 0:0046% → 46%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 10FUMBLE4 plays · 21 yds · 1:1256% → 59%
Q3 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-1
59.3%
Zach Laskey run for a loss of 1 yard to the GTech 46 Zach Laskey fumbled, forced by Jamal Bruce, recovered by Duke Jeremy CashSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 11TD10 plays · 46 yds · 2:4550% → 63%
GTDrive 12MISSED FG6 plays · 14 yds · 1:0843% → 40%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 13FG8 plays · 50 yds · 2:5163% → 72%
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
37.2%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Johnell Barnes for 8 yds to the Duke 43Similar
Q3 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+34
34.7%
Josh Snead run for 19 yds to the GATECH 35 for a 1ST down GEORGIA TECH Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) to the GTech 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:21
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
33.8%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Johnell Barnes for 3 yds to the GTech 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 14INT10 plays · 61 yds · 4:1131% → 30%
Q3 5:21
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+5
29.9%
Justin Thomas pass complete to Micheal Summers for 5 yds to the GTech 38Similar
Q3 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+26
29.1%
Justin Thomas pass complete to Darren Waller for 26 yds to the Duke 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:49
2ND & 9
OPP 10
0
29.9%
Justin Thomas pass intercepted Zavier Carmichael at the Duke 4, return for 1 yard to the Duke 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 15DOWNS13 plays · 70 yds · 6:0678% → 88%
GTDrive 16INT4 plays · 12 yds · 1:1016% → 16%
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+23
16.3%
Justin Thomas pass intercepted Jeremy Cash return for 23 yds to the GTech 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 17TD3 plays · 23 yds · 0:5291% → 98%
GTDrive 18TD10 plays · 73 yds · 2:435% → 14%
Q4 7:31
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+13
4.8%
Tim Byerly pass complete to B.J. Bostic for 13 yds to the GTech 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:10
2ND & 3
OPP 34
+16
4.8%
Tim Byerly pass complete to Darren Waller for 16 yds to the Duke 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-8
3.6%
Tony Zenon run for 2 yds to the Duke 16 GEORGIA TECH Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Duke 26Similar
Q4 5:30
1ST & 18
OPP 26
+15
3.3%
B.J. Bostic pass complete to Tim Byerly for 15 yds to the Duke 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 19PUNT10 plays · 9 yds · 1:1195% → 97%
Q4 3:19
4TH & 13
OPP 45
0
3.3%
Will Monday punt for 35 yds, fair catch by DeAndre Smelter at the GTech 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 20TD9 plays · 89 yds · 1:332% → 24%
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-8
2.4%
Tim Byerly sacked by Jordan DeWalt-Ondijo for a loss of 8 yards to the GTech 3Similar
Q4 2:29
3RD & 18
OWN 3
+30
2.1%
Tim Byerly pass complete to Darren Waller for 30 yds to the GTech 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:14
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+13
2.2%
Tim Byerly pass complete to Darren Waller for 13 yds to the GTech 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+11
2.0%
Tim Byerly pass complete to Darren Waller for 11 yds to the Duke 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+29
2.2%
Tim Byerly pass complete to Deon Hill for 29 yds to the Duke 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+13
2.9%
Tim Byerly pass complete to Deon Hill for 13 yds to the Duke 1 for a 1ST down DUKE Penalty, Roughing Passer ( Yards) to the Duke 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 21END OF GAME4 plays · -3 yds · 1:0595% → 95%
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:27
Tim Byerly 1 Yd Run (Harrison Butker Kick)
+21.1
TD · Q2 4:36
Thomas Sirk 3 Yd Run (Ross Martin Kick)
-13.2
TD · Q3 10:28
Josh Snead 4 Yd Run (Ross Martin Kick)
-12.2