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DUKE

Duke 10 at Miami 22

MIA
2014 · Week 5 · Sep 27, 2014 · Hard Rock Stadium
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Win probability · MIA
modelMIA aheadDUKE aheadconfidence bandkey playMIA scoreDUKE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:35 · TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 46
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+30.0+15.00−15.0−30.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 10:18: Brad Kaaya pass complete to Herb Waters for 28 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK) — MIA win probability +11.0 pts (now 77%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 3:57: Ross Martin 33 yd FG GOOD — DUKE win probability +10.0 pts (now 33%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 12:55: Brad Kaaya pass complete to Joseph Yearby for 7 yds to the MiaFl 27 — MIA win probability +9.6 pts (now 80%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 9:45: Duke Johnson run for 6 yds to the MiaFl 40 — MIA win probability +9.5 pts (now 83%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:27: Joseph Yearby 47 Yd pass from Brad Kaaya (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — MIA win probability +8.6 pts (now 94%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MIA made the numbers' call on 4 of 11DUKE made the numbers' call on 6 of 14
  1. Q1 11:01MIA 4th & 2 at DUKE 12, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 65.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.6%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.6%−0.1
    86% to make
    Punt
    65.0%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:46DUKE 4th & 7 at DUKE 34, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.8%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:51DUKE 4th & 5 at DUKE 25, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.5%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:31MIA 4th & 5 at MIA 49, up 9
    Close callPunted · 68.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:31DUKE 4th & 6 at DUKE 35, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.8%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.1%
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:25MIA 4th & 3 at MIA 17, up 9
    Close callPunted · 68.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.1%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:15DUKE 4th & 25 at DUKE 32, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.7%−1.7
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 12:55MIA 4th & 4 at MIA 30, up 9
    Close callPunted · 69.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.3%−0.2
    average punt
  9. Q2 10:12MIA 4th & 5 at MIA 33, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.0%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.5%
    average punt
  10. Q2 7:38DUKE 4th & 4 at DUKE 30, down 2
    Close callPunted · 33.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.7%−0.2
    average punt
  11. Q2 3:39MIA 4th & 6 at DUKE 35, up 2
    Close callKicked a field goal · 66.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.0%−0.5
    45% to make
    Punt
    65.1%−1.4
    average punt
  12. Q2 1:57DUKE 4th & 3 at DUKE 42, down 2
    Close callPunted · 35.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.0%−0.8
    average punt
  13. Q2 1:28MIA 4th & 1 at MIA 18, up 2
    Close callPunted · 63.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.8%−0.9
    average punt
  14. Q2 0:08DUKE 4th & 5 at midfield, down 2
    Close callPunted · 36.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.1%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.0%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q2 0:00DUKE 4th & 5 at midfield, down 2
    Close callPunted · 36.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.8%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.7%−0.1
    average punt
  16. Q3 10:18MIA 4th & 19 at DUKE 28, up 2
    Numbers favored field goal by 3.4 ptsWent for it · 63.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.2%−3.4
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    63.6%
    60% to make
    Punt
    56.1%−7.6
    average punt
  17. Q3 9:18DUKE 4th & 10 at DUKE 25, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.2%−2.0
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.2%
    average punt
  18. Q3 3:57DUKE 4th & 4 at MIA 15, down 9
    Close callKicked a field goal · 19.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.7%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    18.6%−0.1
    83% to make
    Punt
    7.4%−11.3
    average punt
  19. Q3 0:25MIA 4th & 6 at MIA 40, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.9%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.2%
    average punt
  20. Q4 13:01DUKE 4th & 7 at MIA 45, down 6
    Close callPunted · 28.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.3%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    25.9%−2.4
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    27.8%−0.5
    average punt
  21. Q4 10:04MIA 4th & 18 at MIA 35, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.2%−4.6
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.8%
    average punt
  22. Q4 4:42DUKE 4th & 12 at MIA 22, down 12
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.6 ptsWent for it · 6.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.5%−1.6
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    7.1%
    72% to make
    Punt
    4.0%−3.0
    average punt
  23. Q4 3:31MIA 4th & 7 at MIA 25, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.0%−0.8
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.8%
    average punt
  24. Q4 1:55DUKE 4th & 13 at MIA 39, down 12
    Close callWent for it · 4.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.5%−0.2
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    3.7%
    36% to make
    Punt
    3.2%−0.5
    average punt
  25. Q4 1:00DUKE 4th & 13 at MIA 47, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.2%
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.0%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MIA made the numbers' call on 1 of 2DUKE made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 11:22DUKE Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 10:18MIA Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 8:27MIA Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    93.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    93.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MIADrive 1FG
10 plays · 63 yds · 3:4766% → 67%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+25
66.3%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Herb Waters for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
50
+16
66.3%
Duke Johnson run for 16 yds to the Duke 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
66.4%
Duke Johnson run for 4 yds to the Duke 30Similar
Q1 13:13
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+5
66.4%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Joseph Yearby for 5 yds to the Duke 25Similar
Q1 12:45
3RD & 1
OPP 25
+5
66.4%
Duke Johnson run for 5 yds to the Duke 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:18
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+8
66.5%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Walter Tucker for 8 yds to the Duke 12Similar
Q1 11:30
2ND & 2
OPP 12
0
66.5%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Stacy Coley for no gain to the Duke 12Similar
Q1 11:06
3RD & 2
OPP 12
0
66.3%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Phillip DorsettSimilar
Q1 11:01
4TH & 2
OPP 12
+29
66.5%
Michael Badgley 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:5434% → 33%
Q1 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
66.2%
Shaquille Powell run for 3 yds to the Duke 34Similar
Q1 10:15
2ND & 7
OWN 34
0
66.2%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Jamison Crowder for no gain to the Duke 34Similar
Q1 9:56
3RD & 7
OWN 34
0
66.4%
Anthony Boone pass incomplete to Issac BlakeneySimilar
Q1 9:46
4TH & 7
OWN 34
+7
66.6%
Will Monday punt for 49 yds , Stacy Coley returns for 7 yds to the MiaFl 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 3TD
8 plays · 76 yds · 2:4266% → 69%
Q1 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
66.3%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Stacy ColeySimilar
Q1 9:30
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+11
66.3%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Clive Walford for 11 yds to the MiaFl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
66.4%
Duke Johnson run for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:42
1ST & 10
50
+10
66.7%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Herb Waters for 10 yds to the Duke 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:11
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+15
66.9%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Malcolm Lewis for 15 yds to the Duke 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
67.0%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Duke Johnson for 6 yds to the Duke 19Similar
Q1 7:15
2ND & 4
OPP 19
+12
67.1%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Clive Walford for 12 yds to the Duke 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
68.9%
Duke Johnson run for 7 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:0632% → 31%
Q1 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
68.3%
Anthony Boone pass incomplete to Jamison CrowderSimilar
Q1 6:30
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+5
68.4%
Anthony Boone run for 5 yds to the Duke 25Similar
Q1 6:00
3RD & 5
OWN 25
0
68.7%
Anthony Boone pass incomplete to Issac BlakeneySimilar
Q1 5:51
4TH & 5
OWN 25
+2
69.0%
Will Monday punt for 45 yds , Stacy Coley returns for 2 yds to the MiaFl 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 2:2069% → 69%
Q1 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+12
68.6%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Herb Waters for 12 yds to the MiaFl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-4
69.3%
Duke Johnson run for no gain to the MiaFl 44 MIAMI FL Penalty, Offensive Holding (Clive Walford) to the MiaFl 40Similar
Q1 5:00
1ST & 14
OWN 40
0
69.0%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Duke JohnsonSimilar
Q1 4:30
2ND & 14
OWN 40
+5
69.0%
Duke Johnson run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 45Similar
Q1 4:02
3RD & 9
OWN 45
+4
69.0%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Duke Johnson for 4 yds to the MiaFl 49Similar
Q1 3:31
4TH & 5
OWN 49
0
69.0%
Justin Vogel punt for 37 yds, downed at the Duke 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 21 yds · 1:4930% → 30%
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+17
69.6%
Shaun Wilson run for no gain to the Duke 14 for a 1ST down MIAMI FL Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Jamal Carter) to the Duke 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-2
69.5%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Jamison Crowder for a loss of 2 yards to the Duke 29Similar
Q1 2:45
2ND & 12
OWN 29
+6
69.7%
Shaun Wilson run for 6 yds to the Duke 35Similar
Q1 1:43
3RD & 6
OWN 35
0
70.0%
Anthony Boone pass incomplete to David ReevesSimilar
Q1 1:31
4TH & 6
OWN 35
+1
70.5%
Will Monday punt for 50 yds , Stacy Coley returns for 1 yd to the MiaFl 36 MIAMI FL Penalty, Illegal Block (Garrett Kidd) to the MiaFl 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:5569% → 68%
Q1 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
69.2%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Duke JohnsonSimilar
Q1 1:00
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+7
69.2%
Duke Johnson run for 7 yds to the MiaFl 17Similar
Q1 0:36
3RD & 3
OWN 17
0
68.8%
Brad Kaaya pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:25
4TH & 3
OWN 17
+7
68.4%
Justin Vogel punt for 43 yds , Jamison Crowder returns for 7 yds to the Duke 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -15 yds · 1:0031% → 29%
Q1 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
69.4%
Anthony Boone pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:01
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+3
69.7%
Joseph Ajeigbe run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
50
-5
69.7%
DUKE Penalty, False Start (TEAM) to the Duke 45Similar
Q2 14:45
3RD & 12
OWN 45
0
70.6%
TEAM run for no gain to the Duke 32 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Duke Anthony BooneSimilar
Q2 14:15
4TH & 25
OWN 32
0
71.5%
Will Monday punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Stacy Coley at the MiaFl 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:0570% → 69%
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
70.0%
Joseph Yearby run for 7 yds to the MiaFl 31Similar
Q2 13:45
2ND & 3
OWN 31
0
70.6%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Malcolm LewisSimilar
Q2 13:15
3RD & 3
OWN 31
-1
69.9%
Gus Edwards run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 30Similar
Q2 12:55
4TH & 4
OWN 30
0
69.3%
Justin Vogel punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Jamison Crowder at the Duke 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 10TD
6 plays · 73 yds · 1:2229% → 37%
Q2 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+11
71.3%
Shaquille Powell run for 11 yds to the Duke 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
70.7%
Anthony Boone pass incomplete to Issac BlakeneySimilar
Q2 12:15
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+17
70.9%
Shaquille Powell run for 17 yds to the MiaFl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+29
70.1%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Johnell Barnes for 29 yds to the MiaFl 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+9
69.3%
Shaquille Powell run for 9 yds to the MiaFl 7Similar
Q2 11:22
2ND & 1
OPP 7
+7
62.7%
Shaquille Powell run for 7 yds for a TD, (Ross Martin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:5766% → 65%
Q2 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
65.7%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Phillip DorsettSimilar
Q2 10:56
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+5
65.4%
Gus Edwards run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 33Similar
Q2 10:26
3RD & 5
OWN 33
0
65.1%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Herb WatersSimilar
Q2 10:12
4TH & 5
OWN 33
+1
64.5%
Justin Vogel punt for 56 yds , Jamison Crowder returns for 1 yd to the Duke 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 12PUNT
9 plays · 18 yds · 2:3235% → 34%
Q2 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
65.4%
Anthony Boone pass incomplete to Issac BlakeneySimilar
Q2 9:52
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+1
65.3%
Josh Snead run for 1 yd to the Duke 13Similar
Q2 9:00
3RD & 9
OWN 13
+8
66.0%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Shaun Wilson for 18 yds to the Duke 31 DUKE Penalty, Illegal Block (Max McCaffrey) to the Duke 21Similar
Q2 8:55
3RD & 1
OWN 21
+3
65.5%
Anthony Boone run for 3 yds to the Duke 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
65.0%
Anthony Boone pass incomplete to Jamison CrowderSimilar
Q2 7:51
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+6
65.5%
Josh Snead run for 6 yds to the Duke 30Similar
Q2 7:46
3RD & 4
OWN 30
0
64.7%
Anthony Boone pass incomplete to Jamison CrowderSimilar
Q2 7:38
4TH & 4
OWN 30
0
66.1%
Will Monday punt for 54 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MiaFl 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 13MISSED FG
9 plays · 49 yds · 3:4466% → 66%
Q2 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
65.8%
Duke Johnson run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 20Similar
Q2 6:45
2ND & 6
OWN 20
+14
65.7%
Duke Johnson run for 14 yds to the MiaFl 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+13
66.2%
Joseph Yearby run for 13 yds to the MiaFl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+14
68.0%
Joseph Yearby run for 14 yds to the Duke 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
68.4%
Joseph Yearby run for 2 yds to the Duke 37Similar
Q2 5:15
2ND & 8
OPP 37
-5
68.3%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Substitution Infraction (TEAM) to the Duke 42Similar
Q2 4:30
2ND & 13
OPP 42
+7
67.2%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Stacy Coley for 7 yds to the Duke 35Similar
Q2 3:45
3RD & 6
OPP 35
0
68.0%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Phillip DorsettSimilar
Q2 3:39
4TH & 6
OPP 35
+52
66.4%
Michael Badgley 52 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:2836% → 36%
Q2 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
63.7%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Jamison Crowder for 5 yds to the Duke 40Similar
Q2 3:00
2ND & 5
OWN 40
0
62.3%
TEAM run for no gain to the Duke 29 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Duke Anthony BooneSimilar
Q2 2:15
3RD & 16
OWN 29
+13
65.6%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Shaun Wilson for 13 yds to the Duke 42Similar
Q2 1:57
4TH & 3
OWN 42
0
63.6%
Will Monday punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Stacy Coley at the MiaFl 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:2465% → 64%
Q2 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
64.6%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Clive WalfordSimilar
Q2 1:46
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+5
64.3%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Malcolm Lewis for 5 yds to the MiaFl 14Similar
Q2 1:35
3RD & 5
OWN 14
+4
63.8%
Duke Johnson run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 18Similar
Q2 1:28
4TH & 1
OWN 18
0
63.8%
Justin Vogel punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jamison Crowder at the Duke 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 1:0938% → 35%
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
62.1%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Shaquille Powell for 2 yds to the Duke 47Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 8
OWN 47
0
61.8%
Anthony Boone pass incomplete to Max McCaffreySimilar
Q2 0:36
3RD & 8
OWN 47
+3
62.8%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Issac Blakeney for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 0:08
4TH & 5
50
0
65.0%
Will Monday punt for 50 yds, downed at the MiaFl 0Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 5
50
0
65.0%
Will Monday punt for 50 yds, downed at the MiaFl 0Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 17FUMBLE
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:0835% → 35%
Q3 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
64.9%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Josh Snead for 1 yd to the Duke 27Similar
Q3 14:03
2ND & 9
OWN 27
+4
65.0%
Anthony Boone run for 4 yds to the Duke 31Similar
Q3 13:22
3RD & 5
OWN 31
+1
64.9%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Issac Blakeney for 1 yd Issac Blakeney fumbled, forced by Denzel Perryman, recovered by MiaFl Antonio CrawfordSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 18TD
9 plays · 32 yds · 2:4270% → 77%
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
69.6%
Duke Johnson run for 2 yds to the Duke 30Similar
Q3 12:30
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+4
69.4%
Duke Johnson run for 4 yds to the Duke 26Similar
Q3 12:12
3RD & 4
OPP 26
+7
68.3%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Braxton Berrios for 7 yds to the Duke 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
69.5%
Gus Edwards run for 1 yd to the Duke 18Similar
Q3 11:06
2ND & 9
OPP 18
0
69.6%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Malcolm LewisSimilar
Q3 10:31
3RD & 9
OPP 18
-10
68.3%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Joseph Yearby for no gain to the Duke 18 MIAMI FL Penalty, Illegal Block (Ereck Flowers) to the Duke 28Similar
Q3 10:26
3RD & 19
OPP 28
0
65.9%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Clive WalfordSimilar
Q3 10:18
4TH & 19
OPP 28
+28
76.9%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Herb Waters for 28 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:5424% → 21%
Q3 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
76.4%
Anthony Boone pass incomplete to Shaquille PowellSimilar
Q3 9:49
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
76.8%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Jamison Crowder for no gain to the Duke 25Similar
Q3 9:30
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
77.8%
Anthony Boone pass incomplete to Jamison CrowderSimilar
Q3 9:18
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+4
78.6%
Will Monday punt for 59 yds , Stacy Coley returns for 4 yds to the MiaFl 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 20FUMBLE
6 plays · 24 yds · 2:1178% → 80%
Q3 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
78.0%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Malcolm Lewis for 9 yds to the MiaFl 29Similar
Q3 8:45
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+5
78.8%
Duke Johnson run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
79.0%
Duke Johnson run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 39Similar
Q3 7:30
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+5
80.4%
Joseph Yearby run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
80.7%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Braxton BerriosSimilar
Q3 6:59
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
80.4%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Malcolm Lewis for no gain Malcolm Lewis fumbled, forced by Jeremy Cash, recovered by Duke Breon BordersSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 21FG
8 plays · 29 yds · 2:4824% → 33%
Q3 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+12
76.5%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Shaun Wilson for 12 yds to the MiaFl 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
75.4%
Shaun Wilson run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 27Similar
Q3 5:45
2ND & 5
OPP 27
-5
74.9%
DUKE Penalty, False Start (Issac Blakeney) to the MiaFl 32Similar
Q3 5:26
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+11
75.7%
Shaun Wilson run for 11 yds to the MiaFl 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:54
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
75.9%
Anthony Boone pass incomplete to Shaun WilsonSimilar
Q3 4:41
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+8
76.5%
Shaun Wilson run for 8 yds to the MiaFl 13Similar
Q3 4:20
3RD & 2
OPP 13
-2
77.5%
Shaun Wilson run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaFl 15Similar
Q3 3:57
4TH & 4
OPP 15
+33
67.5%
Ross Martin 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 22PUNT
9 plays · 29 yds · 3:2073% → 76%
Q3 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+4
73.4%
Duke Johnson run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 15Similar
Q3 3:15
2ND & 6
OWN 15
+8
75.3%
Duke Johnson run for 8 yds to the MiaFl 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+9
75.8%
Joseph Yearby run for 9 yds to the MiaFl 32Similar
Q3 2:15
2ND & 1
OWN 32
+4
77.0%
Joseph Yearby run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
78.3%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Phillip DorsettSimilar
Q3 1:15
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+4
77.8%
Duke Johnson run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 40Similar
Q3 0:45
3RD & 6
OWN 40
0
78.0%
Brad Kaaya run for no gain to the MiaFl 40Similar
Q3 0:25
4TH & 6
OWN 40
0
76.4%
Justin Vogel punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Jamison Crowder at the Duke 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 41 yds · 2:0029% → 30%
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+8
71.0%
Shaquille Powell run for 8 yds to the Duke 22Similar
Q4 14:48
2ND & 2
OWN 22
+15
69.5%
Boone, Anthony pass incomplete to Crowder, Jamison, PENALTY MIAMIFL pass interference (Crawford, Antonio) 15 yards to the DUKE37, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN DUKE. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
69.0%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Jamison Crowder for 15 yds to the MiaFl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
65.9%
Shaquille Powell run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 47Similar
Q4 13:45
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+2
66.1%
Shaquille Powell run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 45Similar
Q4 13:15
3RD & 7
OPP 45
0
66.5%
Anthony Boone pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:01
4TH & 7
OPP 45
0
69.9%
Will Monday punt for 45 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 24PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 2:5180% → 81%
Q4 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
79.6%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Joseph Yearby for 7 yds to the MiaFl 27Similar
Q4 12:15
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+16
80.3%
Duke Johnson run for 16 yds to the MiaFl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
84.1%
Duke Johnson run for no gain to the MiaFl 43Similar
Q4 11:30
2ND & 10
OWN 43
-14
83.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 14 yards to the MiaFl 29Similar
Q4 10:55
3RD & 24
OWN 29
+6
81.2%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Herb Waters for 6 yds to the MiaFl 35Similar
Q4 10:04
4TH & 18
OWN 35
0
80.9%
Justin Vogel punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jamison Crowder at the Duke 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 25INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q4 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
73.8%
Anthony Boone pass intercepted Ladarius Gunter return for no gain to the MiaFl 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 26TD
3 plays · 66 yds · 1:1883% → 94%
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
83.3%
Duke Johnson run for 6 yds to the MiaFl 40Similar
Q4 9:13
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+11
85.7%
Duke Johnson run for 11 yds to the Duke 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:27
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+47
94.3%
Joseph Yearby 47 Yd pass from Brad Kaaya (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 27DOWNS
13 plays · 53 yds · 3:188% → 7%
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
92.1%
Shaquille Powell run for 3 yds to the Duke 28Similar
Q4 7:33
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
91.2%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Shaun Wilson for 2 yds to the Duke 30Similar
Q4 7:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+8
91.5%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Shaun Wilson for 8 yds to the Duke 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
91.1%
Anthony Boone pass incomplete to Shaun WilsonSimilar
Q4 6:30
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+10
91.8%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Issac Blakeney for 10 yds to the Duke 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
91.4%
Anthony Boone pass incomplete to Jamison CrowderSimilar
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+11
91.7%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Jamison Crowder for 11 yds to the MiaFl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+21
91.5%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Shaun Wilson for 21 yds to the MiaFl 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-2
90.5%
Shaun Wilson run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaFl 22Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 12
OPP 22
0
91.8%
Anthony Boone pass incomplete to David ReevesSimilar
Q4 4:50
3RD & 12
OPP 22
0
92.2%
Anthony Boone pass incomplete to Johnell BarnesSimilar
Q4 4:42
4TH & 12
OPP 22
0
92.9%
Anthony Boone pass incomplete to David ReevesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 28PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:5995% → 97%
Q4 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
95.2%
Duke Johnson run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 23Similar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 9
OWN 23
-3
95.7%
Duke Johnson run for a loss of 3 yards to the MiaFl 20Similar
Q4 3:42
3RD & 12
OWN 20
+5
96.1%
Joseph Yearby run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 25Similar
Q4 3:31
4TH & 7
OWN 25
0
96.9%
Justin Vogel punt for 47 yds , Jamison Crowder returns for no gain to the Duke 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 29INT
11 plays · 33 yds · 1:153% → 3%
Q4 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
97.2%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Shaquille Powell for 8 yds to the Duke 36Similar
Q4 2:50
2ND & 2
OWN 36
+18
97.1%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Jamison Crowder for 18 yds to the MiaFl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
97.0%
Anthony Boone pass incomplete to Shaquille PowellSimilar
Q4 2:45
2ND & 10
OPP 46
-3
97.1%
DUKE Penalty, False Start (TEAM) to the MiaFl 49Similar
Q4 2:41
2ND & 13
OPP 49
0
97.1%
Anthony Boone pass incomplete to Johnell BarnesSimilar
Q4 2:41
3RD & 13
OPP 49
+13
97.4%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Denzel Perryman) to the MiaFl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:36
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
96.9%
Anthony Boone pass incomplete to Jamison CrowderSimilar
Q4 2:20
2ND & 10
OPP 36
-5
96.9%
DUKE Penalty, Illegal Procedure (Matt Skura) to the MiaFl 41Similar
Q4 2:15
2ND & 15
OPP 41
+2
97.2%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Erich Schneider for 2 yds to the MiaFl 39Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 13
OPP 39
0
97.1%
Anthony Boone pass incomplete to Johnell BarnesSimilar
Q4 1:55
4TH & 13
OPP 39
+20
97.4%
Anthony Boone pass intercepted Denzel Perryman return for 20 yds to the Duke 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 30FUMBLE
1 play · 1 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
98.2%
Gus Edwards run for 1 yd to the Duke 45 Gus Edwards fumbled, forced by Jeremy Cash, recovered by Duke Deondre SingletonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 31DOWNS
9 plays · 8 yds · 0:403% → 2%
Q4 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
97.5%
Anthony Boone pass incomplete to Issac BlakeneySimilar
Q4 1:30
2ND & 10
OWN 45
-2
97.5%
Anthony Boone sacked by Antonio Crawford for a loss of 2 yards to the Duke 43 DUKE Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Anthony Boone) to the Duke 43Similar
Q4 1:20
2ND & 12
OWN 43
+13
97.7%
Boone, Anthony pass incomplete to Crowder, Jamison, PENALTY MIAMIFL pass interference (Crawford, Antonio) 13 yards to the MIAMIFL44, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN DUKE. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
97.2%
Anthony Boone pass incomplete to Max McCaffreySimilar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
97.4%
Anthony Boone pass incomplete to Jamison CrowderSimilar
Q4 1:00
3RD & 10
OPP 44
-5
97.4%
DUKE Penalty, Illegal Procedure (Matt Skura) to the MiaFl 49Similar
Q4 1:00
3RD & 15
OPP 49
+2
97.8%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Shaquille Powell for 2 yds to the MiaFl 47Similar
Q4 1:00
4TH & 13
OPP 47
0
97.8%
Anthony Boone pass incomplete to David ReevesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 32END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-1
98.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:18
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Herb Waters for 28 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)
+11
FG · Q3 3:57
Ross Martin 33 yd FG GOOD
-10
KEY PLAY · Q4 12:55
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Joseph Yearby for 7 yds to the MiaFl 27
+9.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com