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DUKE

Duke 34 at Troy 17

TROY
2014 · Week 2 · Sep 6, 2014 · Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
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Win probability · TROY
modelTROY aheadDUKE aheadconfidence bandkey playTROY scoreDUKE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 15:00 · Ryan Kay punt for 35 yds , Jamison Crowder returns for 19 yds to the Duke 42
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+49.5+24.80−24.8−49.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 108Pregame prior−28.2Home team on offense−9.4Score differential−4.4Garbage-time factor−2.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:54: Jordan Chunn run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ryan Kay KICK) — TROY win probability +6.0 pts (now 21%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 6:06: Thomas Sirk pass complete to David Reeves for 2 yds for a TD, (Ross Martin KICK) — DUKE win probability +2.7 pts (now 84%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 3:24: Anthony Boone pass complete to Issac Blakeney for 49 yds for a TD, (Ross Martin KICK) — DUKE win probability +5.1 pts (now 87%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 4:32: Ryan Kay 29 yd FG GOOD — TROY win probability +4.8 pts (now 21%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 1:48: Anthony Boone run for 5 yds for a TD, (Ross Martin KICK) — DUKE win probability +8.4 pts (now 93%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TROY made the numbers' call on 7 of 9DUKE made the numbers' call on 5 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00DUKE 4th & 5 at DUKE 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.6%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:24DUKE 4th & 10 at TROY 35, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 82.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    82.6%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    82.7%
    45% to make
    Punt
    82.6%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:03DUKE 4th & 7 at TROY 7, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 78.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.5%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.6%
    91% to make
    Punt
    77.4%−1.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:42TROY 4th & 1 at TROY 41, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    25.1%−0.9
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:06TROY 4th & 3 at TROY 38, down 3
    Close callPunted · 23.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.8%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:07TROY 4th & 1 at DUKE 22, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    17.4%−0.5
    72% to make
    Punt
    14.5%−3.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:53DUKE 4th & 10 at DUKE 43, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.5%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.9%
    average punt
  8. Q3 15:00TROY 4th & 25 at TROY 42, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.2%−1.7
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.8%
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:42DUKE 4th & 2 at TROY 40, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 82.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    82.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    81.4%−1.4
    34% to make
    Punt
    81.6%−1.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:42DUKE 4th & 17 at TROY 45, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.7%−1.4
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    82.0%−1.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    83.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:32TROY 4th & 8 at DUKE 12, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 17.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.2%−0.7
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    16.9%
    86% to make
    Punt
    10.0%−6.9
    average punt
  12. Q4 15:00TROY 4th & 5 at TROY 45, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.3%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.5%
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:53DUKE 4th & 6 at TROY 30, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 93.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.8%−0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    91.8%−1.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:53TROY 4th & 3 at TROY 16, down 17
    Close callPunted · 4.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.4%−0.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:11DUKE 4th & 9 at TROY 38, up 17
    Close callPunted · 95.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.2%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    95.1%−0.2
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    95.1%−0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:51TROY 4th & 6 at TROY 30, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.1%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.1%
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:36DUKE 4th & 9 at TROY 31, up 17
    Close callWent for it · 98.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.9%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    98.0%
    54% to make
    Punt
    97.7%−0.3
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:09TROY 4th & 13 at DUKE 38, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.0%
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    2.0%−<0.1
    38% to make
    Punt
    1.9%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TROY made the numbers' call on 2 of 2DUKE made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 9:24TROY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:54TROY Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:42DUKE Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:06DUKE Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 3:24DUKE Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 1:48DUKE Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
DUKEDrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 17 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
8.3%
DUKE Penalty, delay of game (N/A) to the Duke 20Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+10
8.3%
Shaquille Powell run for 10 yds to the Duke 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-5
8.3%
DUKE Penalty, false start (N/A) to the Duke 25Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+12
8.3%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Shaquille Powell for 12 yds to the Duke 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
8.3%
Anthony Boone run for 5 yds to the Duke 42Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 42
0
8.3%
Shaquille Powell run for no gain to the Duke 42Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 42
0
8.3%
Anthony Boone pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 42
0
8.3%
Will Monday punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 2TD
11 plays · 83 yds · 3:159% → 12%
Q1 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+8
9.2%
Chandler Worthy run for 8 yds to the Troy 25Similar
Q1 12:39
2ND & 2
OWN 25
+13
9.3%
Brandon Burks run for 13 yds to the Troy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
9.3%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Brandon Burks for 8 yds to the Troy 46Similar
Q1 12:39
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+1
9.3%
Brandon Burks run for 1 yd to the Troy 47Similar
Q1 12:39
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+4
9.3%
Jordan Chunn run for 4 yds to the Duke 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:39
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
9.3%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Chandler Worthy for 9 yds to the Duke 40Similar
Q1 12:39
2ND & 1
OPP 40
+4
9.4%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Chandler Worthy for 4 yds to the Duke 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:39
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
9.3%
Brandon Burks run for 1 yd to the Duke 35Similar
Q1 12:39
2ND & 9
OPP 35
+2
9.4%
Brandon Burks run for 2 yds to the Duke 33Similar
Q1 12:39
3RD & 7
OPP 33
+31
9.3%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to B.J. Chitty for 31 yds to the Duke 2 for a 1ST down DUKE Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
11.7%
Brandon Silvers run for 2 yds for a TD, (Ryan Kay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 3FG
16 plays · 68 yds · 5:2189% → 86%
Q1 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
11.4%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Jamison Crowder for 12 yds to the Duke 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
11.3%
Josh Snead run for 2 yds to the Duke 39Similar
Q1 9:24
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+15
11.3%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Max McCaffrey for 15 yds to the Troy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:24
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-5
11.2%
DUKE Penalty, false start (N/A) to the Duke 49Similar
Q1 9:24
1ST & 15
OWN 49
+11
11.3%
Josh Snead run for 11 yds to the Troy 40Similar
Q1 9:24
2ND & 4
OPP 40
+3
11.2%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Johnell Barnes for 3 yds to the Troy 37Similar
Q1 9:24
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+2
11.2%
Josh Snead run for 2 yds to the Troy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:24
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
11.1%
Anthony Boone pass incomplete to Johnell BarnesSimilar
Q1 9:24
2ND & 10
OPP 35
-1
11.1%
Josh Snead run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 36Similar
Q1 9:24
3RD & 11
OPP 36
+1
11.3%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Josh Snead for 1 yd to the Troy 35Similar
Q1 9:24
4TH & 10
OPP 35
+26
11.4%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Jamison Crowder for 26 yds to the Troy 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
11.1%
Anthony Boone run for 3 yds to the Troy 6Similar
Q1 9:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
11.1%
Anthony Boone pass incomplete to Max McCaffreySimilar
Q1 9:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
-1
11.2%
Anthony Boone sacked by Lonnie Gosha for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 7Similar
Q1 4:03
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+24
13.7%
Ross Martin 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 4TD
14 plays · 83 yds · 4:0914% → 21%
Q1 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+7
13.9%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to K.D. Edenfield for 7 yds to the Troy 24Similar
Q1 4:03
2ND & 3
OWN 24
+2
13.9%
Khary Franklin run for 2 yds to the Troy 26Similar
Q1 4:03
3RD & 1
OWN 26
+11
13.7%
Jordan Chunn run for 11 yds to the Troy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
14.1%
Brandon Silvers run for 7 yds to the Troy 44Similar
Q1 4:03
2ND & 3
OWN 44
0
14.4%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Chandler WorthySimilar
Q1 4:03
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+3
14.1%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Brandon Burks for 3 yds to the Troy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+17
14.3%
Brandon Burks run for 17 yds to the Duke 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:03
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+7
14.5%
Brandon Silvers run for 7 yds to the Duke 29Similar
Q1 4:03
2ND & 3
OPP 29
+14
14.6%
Khary Franklin run for 14 yds to the Duke 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:03
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+9
14.6%
Khary Franklin run for 9 yds to the Duke 6Similar
Q1 4:03
2ND & 1
OPP 6
+3
14.6%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to B.J. Chitty for 3 yds to the Duke 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
14.6%
Brandon Burks run for 2 yds to the Duke 1Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
20.6%
Jordan Chunn run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ryan Kay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 5TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:1280% → 82%
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
19.8%
Shaquille Powell run for 3 yds to the Duke 28Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
19.7%
Shaquille Powell run for 2 yds to the Duke 30Similar
Q2 14:54
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+9
19.9%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Shaquille Powell for 9 yds to the Duke 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+10
19.3%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Issac Blakeney for 10 yds to the Duke 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-1
19.0%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Jamison Crowder for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 48Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 11
OWN 48
+2
19.3%
Shaquille Powell run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 14:54
3RD & 9
50
+10
19.4%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Issac Blakeney for 10 yds to the Troy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
18.9%
Shaquille Powell run for 2 yds to the Troy 38Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 8
OPP 38
0
18.9%
Anthony Boone pass incomplete to Jamison Crowder, broken up by Tray HallSimilar
Q2 14:54
3RD & 8
OPP 38
+8
19.1%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Issac Blakeney for 8 yds to the Troy 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
17.9%
Anthony Boone run for 30 yds for a TD, (Ross Martin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 6DOWNS
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q2 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
19.8%
Brandon Silvers run for 3 yds to the Troy 35Similar
Q2 10:42
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+4
19.8%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to K.D. Edenfield for 4 yds to the Troy 39Similar
Q2 10:42
3RD & 3
OWN 39
+2
20.0%
Brandon Silvers run for 2 yds to the Troy 41Similar
Q2 10:42
4TH & 1
OWN 41
-1
19.5%
Jordan Chunn run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 7TD
7 plays · 40 yds · 2:4381% → 84%
Q2 8:49
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
19.4%
Josh Snead run for 2 yds to the Troy 38Similar
Q2 8:49
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+6
19.5%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Jamison Crowder for 6 yds to the Troy 32Similar
Q2 8:49
3RD & 2
OPP 32
+15
19.4%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Jamison Crowder for 15 yds to the Troy 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:49
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
18.8%
Anthony Boone run for 3 yds to the Troy 14Similar
Q2 8:49
2ND & 7
OPP 14
+7
18.8%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Johnell Barnes for 7 yds to the Troy 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
18.8%
Thomas Sirk run for 5 yds to the Troy 2Similar
Q2 6:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
16.1%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to David Reeves for 2 yds for a TD, (Ross Martin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 24 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q2 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+3
18.1%
Brandon Burks run for 3 yds to the Troy 17Similar
Q2 6:06
2ND & 7
OWN 17
+14
18.1%
Teddy Ruben run for 14 yds to the Troy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
18.4%
Dontreal Pruitt pass incomplete to K.D. EdenfieldSimilar
Q2 6:06
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+8
18.3%
Dontreal Pruitt run for 8 yds to the Troy 39Similar
Q2 6:06
3RD & 2
OWN 39
+2
19.2%
Brandon Burks run for 2 yds to the Troy 38 Brandon Burks fumbled, forced by DeVon Edwards, recovered by TroySimilar
Q2 6:06
4TH & 3
OWN 38
0
17.9%
Ryan Kay punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Duke 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 9TD
3 plays · 66 yds · 0:5082% → 87%
Q2 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
18.5%
Shaquille Powell run for 3 yds to the Duke 37Similar
Q2 4:14
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+14
18.1%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Max McCaffrey for 14 yds to the Troy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:24
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+49
13.0%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Issac Blakeney for 49 yds for a TD, (Ross Martin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 10DOWNS
8 plays · 52 yds · 2:1714% → 14%
Q2 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+48
13.5%
Dontreal Pruitt pass complete to Bryan Holmes for 48 yds to the Duke 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:24
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-1
15.4%
Khary Franklin run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 32Similar
Q2 3:24
2ND & 11
OPP 32
+2
15.3%
Khary Franklin run for 12 yds to the Duke 20 TROY Penalty, illegal block (N/A) to the Duke 30Similar
Q2 3:24
2ND & 9
OPP 30
+5
15.3%
Jordan Chunn run for 5 yds to the Duke 25Similar
Q2 3:24
3RD & 4
OPP 25
+3
14.7%
Dontreal Pruitt run for 3 yds to the Duke 22Similar
Q2 1:07
4TH & 1
OPP 22
-3
13.9%
Jordan Chunn run for a loss of 3 yards to the Duke 27 Jordan Chunn fumbled, forced by DeVon Edwards, recovered by Troy Dontreal PruittSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 0:0887% → 86%
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
13.3%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Josh Snead for 7 yds to the Duke 34Similar
Q2 0:53
2ND & 3
OWN 34
+9
13.5%
Josh Snead run for 9 yds to the Duke 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
13.1%
Anthony Boone pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:53
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
13.2%
Anthony Boone pass incomplete to Max McCaffrey, broken up by JaQuadrian LewisSimilar
Q2 0:53
3RD & 10
OWN 43
0
13.5%
Anthony Boone pass incomplete to Jamison Crowder, broken up by Tray HallSimilar
Q2 0:53
4TH & 10
OWN 43
0
14.3%
Will Monday punt for 31 yds, downed at the Troy 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 12END OF HALF
3 plays · -14 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-5
13.3%
TROY Penalty, false start (N/A) to the Troy 21Similar
Q2 0:15
1ST & 15
OWN 21
-5
13.0%
TROY Penalty, false start (N/A) to the Troy 16Similar
Q2 0:15
1ST & 20
OWN 16
-4
13.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the Troy 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:0014% → 13%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+15
14.3%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Brandon Burks for 15 yds to the Duke 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
14.9%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Khary Franklin for 4 yds to the Duke 39Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 39
-8
14.9%
Brandon Silvers sacked by Jordan DeWalt-Ondijo for a loss of 8 yards to the Duke 47Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 14
OPP 47
-11
13.7%
Brandon Silvers sacked by Jordan DeWalt-Ondijo for a loss of 11 yards to the Troy 42Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 25
OWN 42
+19
12.8%
Ryan Kay punt for 35 yds , Jamison Crowder returns for 19 yds to the Duke 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 14PUNT
9 plays · 13 yds · 0:0087% → 86%
Q3 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+10
13.2%
Anthony Boone run for 10 yds to the Troy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:42
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
13.1%
Josh Snead run for 3 yds to the Troy 45Similar
Q3 12:42
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+1
13.1%
Josh Snead run for 1 yd to the Troy 44Similar
Q3 12:42
3RD & 6
OPP 44
+4
13.4%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Max McCaffrey for 4 yds to the Troy 40Similar
Q3 12:42
4TH & 2
OPP 40
+2
14.0%
Josh Snead run for 2 yds to the Troy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:42
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
13.1%
Anthony Boone pass incomplete to Jamison CrowderSimilar
Q3 12:42
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+1
13.1%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Max McCaffrey for 1 yd to the Troy 37Similar
Q3 12:42
3RD & 9
OPP 37
-8
13.4%
Anthony Boone sacked by Mark Wilson for a loss of 8 yards to the Troy 45Similar
Q3 12:42
4TH & 17
OPP 45
0
14.5%
Will Monday punt for 45 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 15FG
12 plays · 68 yds · 3:5314% → 21%
Q3 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
14.4%
Brandon Silvers run for 6 yds to the Troy 26Similar
Q3 8:25
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+6
14.7%
Brandon Burks run for 6 yds to the Troy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
14.8%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Chandler Worthy for 4 yds to the Troy 36Similar
Q3 8:25
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+3
15.1%
Brandon Burks run for 3 yds to the Troy 39Similar
Q3 8:25
3RD & 3
OWN 39
+14
15.0%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Brandon Brooks for 14 yds to the Duke 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
16.2%
Jordan Chunn run for 2 yds to the Duke 45Similar
Q3 8:25
2ND & 8
OPP 45
0
16.2%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Chandler WorthySimilar
Q3 8:25
3RD & 8
OPP 45
+31
15.7%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Josh Anderson for 18 yds to the Duke 27 for a 1ST down DUKE Penalty, roughing passer (13 Yards) to the Duke 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-3
17.1%
Brandon Silvers run for a loss of 3 yards to the Duke 17Similar
Q3 8:25
2ND & 13
OPP 17
+5
17.0%
Brandon Burks run for 5 yds to the Duke 12Similar
Q3 8:25
3RD & 8
OPP 12
0
16.1%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to B.J. ChittySimilar
Q3 4:32
4TH & 8
OPP 12
+29
20.9%
Ryan Kay 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 16TD
8 plays · 35 yds · 2:4485% → 93%
Q3 4:32
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
15.4%
Shaun Wilson run for 5 yds to the Troy 30Similar
Q3 4:32
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+8
15.3%
Shaun Wilson run for 8 yds to the Troy 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:32
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
15.3%
Anthony Boone pass incomplete to Max McCaffreySimilar
Q3 4:32
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+5
15.5%
Shaun Wilson run for 5 yds to the Troy 17Similar
Q3 4:32
3RD & 5
OPP 17
+8
15.8%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Shaun Wilson for 8 yds to the Troy 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
15.3%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Johnell Barnes for 4 yds to the Troy 5Similar
Q3 1:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
6.9%
Anthony Boone run for 5 yds for a TD, (Ross Martin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 1:489% → 10%
Q3 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
9.0%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Chandler Worthy for 6 yds to the Troy 31Similar
Q3 1:48
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
9.4%
Jordan Chunn run for 3 yds to the Troy 34Similar
Q3 1:48
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+6
9.5%
Jordan Chunn run for 6 yds to the Troy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
9.8%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to K.D. Edenfield for 3 yds to the Troy 43Similar
Q3 1:48
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+4
10.1%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to B.J. Chitty for 4 yds to the Troy 47Similar
Q3 1:48
3RD & 3
OWN 47
-2
10.2%
Brandon Silvers sacked by Jeremy Cash for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 45Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 45
0
9.7%
Ryan Kay punt for 45 yds , Jamison Crowder returns for no gain to the Duke 45 TROY Penalty, illegal block (N/A) to the Duke 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 18FG
13 plays · 45 yds · 3:5392% → 95%
Q4 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
7.7%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Jamison Crowder for no gain to the Duke 25Similar
Q4 14:46
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
7.7%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Terrence Alls for 5 yds to the Duke 30Similar
Q4 14:46
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+12
7.8%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Jamison Crowder for 12 yds to the Duke 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-9
7.1%
Shaquille Powell run for 1 yd to the Duke 43 DUKE Penalty, Offensive holding (N/A) to the Duke 33Similar
Q4 14:46
1ST & 19
OWN 33
+5
7.7%
TROY Penalty, offside defense (Lonnie Gosha) to the Duke 38Similar
Q4 14:46
1ST & 14
OWN 38
+9
7.3%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Joseph Ajeigbe for 9 yds to the Duke 47Similar
Q4 14:46
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+6
7.0%
Joseph Ajeigbe run for 6 yds to the Troy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:46
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+9
6.9%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Terrence Alls for 9 yds to the Troy 38Similar
Q4 14:46
2ND & 1
OPP 38
+4
6.7%
Joseph Ajeigbe run for 4 yds to the Troy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:46
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
6.8%
Anthony Boone pass incomplete to Jamison CrowderSimilar
Q4 14:46
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+4
6.8%
Joseph Ajeigbe run for 4 yds to the Troy 30Similar
Q4 14:46
3RD & 6
OPP 30
0
6.9%
Anthony Boone pass incomplete to Johnell BarnesSimilar
Q4 10:53
4TH & 6
OPP 30
+48
4.6%
Ross Martin 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q4 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
4.1%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to K.D. EdenfieldSimilar
Q4 10:53
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+1
4.0%
Khary Franklin run for 1 yd to the Troy 10Similar
Q4 10:53
3RD & 9
OWN 10
+6
4.1%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to B.J. Chitty for 6 yds to the Troy 16Similar
Q4 10:53
4TH & 3
OWN 16
0
4.1%
Ryan Kay punt for 36 yds, downed at the Duke 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 14 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+13
3.8%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Issac Blakeney for 13 yds to the Troy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:11
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
3.7%
Josh Snead run for 1 yd to the Troy 38Similar
Q4 9:11
2ND & 9
OPP 38
0
3.7%
Anthony Boone pass incomplete, broken up by Montres KitchensSimilar
Q4 9:11
3RD & 9
OPP 38
0
3.8%
Anthony Boone pass incomplete to Johnell BarnesSimilar
Q4 9:11
4TH & 9
OPP 38
0
4.1%
Will Monday punt for 25 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Troy 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 21PUNT
9 plays · 17 yds · 1:034% → 4%
Q4 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
4.0%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Teddy RubenSimilar
Q4 7:54
2ND & 10
OWN 13
0
4.0%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Brandon BurksSimilar
Q4 7:54
3RD & 10
OWN 13
+13
3.9%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Bryan Holmes for 13 yds to the Troy 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
4.1%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Bryan HolmesSimilar
Q4 7:20
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+4
3.9%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to B.J. Chitty for 4 yds to the Troy 30Similar
Q4 6:51
3RD & 6
OWN 30
0
4.0%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q4 6:51
4TH & 6
OWN 30
0
3.9%
Ryan Kay punt for 34 yds, downed at the Duke 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 22DOWNS
11 plays · 38 yds · 5:0197% → 99%
Q4 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
2.6%
Shaquille Powell run for 6 yds to the Duke 42Similar
Q4 6:37
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+11
2.6%
Shaquille Powell run for 11 yds to the Troy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:37
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
2.5%
Shaquille Powell run for 6 yds to the Troy 41Similar
Q4 6:37
2ND & 4
OPP 41
0
2.4%
Anthony Boone run for no gain to the Troy 41Similar
Q4 6:37
3RD & 4
OPP 41
+9
2.5%
Joseph Ajeigbe run for 9 yds to the Troy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:37
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
2.4%
Joseph Ajeigbe run for 2 yds to the Troy 30Similar
Q4 6:37
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+4
2.4%
Joseph Ajeigbe run for 4 yds to the Troy 26Similar
Q4 6:37
3RD & 4
OPP 26
0
2.5%
Anthony Boone pass incomplete to Jamison CrowderSimilar
Q4 6:37
4TH & 4
OPP 26
-5
2.8%
DUKE Penalty, false start (N/A) to the Troy 31Similar
Q4 1:36
4TH & 9
OPP 31
+5
0.9%
Joseph Ajeigbe run for 5 yds to the Troy 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 23DOWNS
9 plays · 36 yds · 1:202% → 2%
Q4 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-5
2.0%
TROY Penalty, substitution infraction (-5 Yards) to the Troy 21Similar
Q4 1:29
1ST & 15
OWN 21
+14
2.1%
Tim Longmire run for 14 yds to the Troy 35Similar
Q4 1:29
2ND & 1
OWN 35
+15
2.1%
Dontreal Pruitt pass complete to Kinderick Dent for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:29
1ST & 10
50
+15
2.1%
Dontreal Pruitt pass complete to Kinderick Dent for 15 yds to the Duke 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:29
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
2.5%
Dontreal Pruitt pass incomplete to John JohnsonSimilar
Q4 1:29
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
2.5%
Dontreal Pruitt pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q4 1:29
3RD & 10
OPP 35
-3
2.3%
Marquell Beckwith run for a loss of 3 yards to the Duke 38Similar
Q4 0:09
4TH & 13
OPP 38
0
1.8%
Dontreal Pruitt pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:48
Anthony Boone run for 5 yds for a TD, (Ross Martin KICK)
-8.4
TD · Q2 14:54
Jordan Chunn run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ryan Kay KICK)
+6
TD · Q2 3:24
Anthony Boone pass complete to Issac Blakeney for 49 yds for a TD, (Ross Martin KICK)
-5.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com