2014 · Week 12 · Nov 15, 2014 · Bobby Dodd Stadium
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Win probability · GT
modelGT aheadCLEM aheadconfidence bandkey playGT scoreCLEM score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:01 · TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the GTech 24
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 0:22: Jamal Golden 85 Yd Interception Return (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) — GT win probability +3.8 pts (now 44%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
- FG · Q2 9:07: Harrison Butker 25 yd FG GOOD — GT win probability +4.1 pts (now 55%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
- TD · Q3 12:45: Justin Thomas pass complete to DeAndre Smelter for 5 yds for a TD, (Harrison Butker KICK) — GT win probability +12.2 pts (now 77%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
- FG · Q3 9:14: Harrison Butker 32 yd FG GOOD — GT win probability +3.0 pts (now 82%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
- TD · Q3 1:23: Chris Milton 62 Yd Interception Return (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) — GT win probability +9.7 pts (now 92%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
GT made the numbers' call on 4 of 6CLEM made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
- Q1 13:42CLEM 4th & 10 at CLEM 25, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 54.6% before the snapGo for it54.6%−0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call54.7%average punt
- Q1 6:30CLEM 4th & 10 at GT 10, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 53.4% before the snapGo for it53.1%−0.224% to convertField goalTheir call53.3%88% to makePunt51.9%−1.4average punt
- Q1 4:12GT 4th & 15 at GT 11, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.2% before the snapGo for it44.7%−0.815% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call45.5%average punt
- Q2 13:13CLEM 4th & 11 at CLEM 40, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.4% before the snapGo for it48.0%−0.726% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call48.7%average punt
- Q2 9:07GT 4th & 2 at CLEM 8, up 3Close callKicked a field goal · 52.5% before the snapGo for it52.5%54% to convertField goalTheir call51.6%−1.090% to makePunt47.0%−5.6average punt
- Q2 7:45CLEM 4th & 4 at CLEM 31, down 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.7% before the snapGo for it42.9%−0.648% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call43.5%average punt
- Q2 2:28GT 4th & 7 at CLEM 31, up 6Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.5% before the snapGo for it60.9%−<0.137% to convertField goalTheir call60.9%54% to makePunt59.2%−1.7average punt
- Q2 0:01GT 4th & 14 at GT 27, up 6Numbers favored punt by 2.9 ptsWent for it · 60.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call54.9%−2.917% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt57.8%average punt
- Q3 9:14GT 4th & 7 at CLEM 15, up 13Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 80.5% before the snapGo for it79.2%−0.834% to convertField goalTheir call80.1%83% to makePunt72.7%−7.4average punt
- Q3 5:47CLEM 4th & 5 at GT 13, down 16Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 17.3% before the snapGo for it16.7%−0.339% to convertField goalTheir call16.9%85% to makePunt10.5%−6.4average punt
- Q4 12:49CLEM 4th & 18 at CLEM 30, down 19Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.5% before the snapGo for it3.2%−1.512% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.7%average punt
- Q4 8:25GT 4th & 17 at CLEM 24, up 19Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.7% before the snapGo for it96.9%−0.814% to convertField goalTheir call97.7%68% to makePunt95.5%−2.2average punt
- Q4 6:34CLEM 4th & 15 at CLEM 20, down 22Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snapGo for it0.6%−0.316% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.8%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GT made the numbers' call on 1 of 3
- Q1 0:22GT Touchdown, up 3 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick50.8%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call50.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 12:45GT Touchdown, up 12 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call75.1%97% to makeGo for two74.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 1:23GT Touchdown, up 19 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick94.1%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call94.0%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartCLEMDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 1:1860% → 60%
GTDrive 2FUMBLE6 plays · 15 yds · 2:3940% → 42%
CLEMDrive 3FG11 plays · 41 yds · 4:3359% → 59%
Q1 9:50
2ND & 9
OPP 38
+6
40.9%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Wayne Gallman for 6 yds to the GTech 32Similar
Q1 9:20
3RD & 3
OPP 32
+6
41.0%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Adam Humphries for 6 yds to the GTech 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
40.8%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Wayne Gallman for 4 yds to the GTech 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 4PUNT5 plays · -5 yds · 2:0342% → 41%
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-1
41.5%
Justin Thomas sacked by Tony Steward for a loss of 1 yard to the GTech 15Similar
Q1 5:00
3RD & 10
OWN 16
-5
41.0%
Justin Thomas pass complete to Darren Waller for a loss of 5 yards to the GTech 11Similar
Q1 4:12
4TH & 15
OWN 11
+6
40.9%
Ryan Rodwell punt for 45 yds , Adam Humphries returns for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 5INT TD8 plays · 42 yds · 3:5059% → 56%
CLEMDrive 6PUNT8 plays · 15 yds · 2:0954% → 52%
Q2 13:13
4TH & 11
OWN 40
0
48.2%
Bradley Pinion punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jamal Golden at the GTech 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 7FG8 plays · 70 yds · 4:0647% → 55%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 8PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 1:2246% → 44%
GTDrive 9MISSED FG12 plays · 44 yds · 5:1757% → 60%
CLEMDrive 10PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 0:4341% → 40%
GTDrive 11DOWNS5 plays · -7 yds · 0:3960% → 58%
GTDrive 12TD5 plays · 75 yds · 2:1561% → 77%
Q3 12:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
76.5%
Justin Thomas pass complete to DeAndre Smelter for 5 yds for a TD, (Harrison Butker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 13INT2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
Q3 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
73.3%
Cole Stoudt pass intercepted D.J. White return for no gain to the Clem 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 14FG7 plays · 29 yds · 3:2477% → 82%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 15FG10 plays · 57 yds · 3:1820% → 21%
GTDrive 16FUMBLE6 plays · 32 yds · 2:4684% → 87%
CLEMDrive 17INT TD5 plays · 12 yds · 1:3819% → 8%
Q3 1:23
3RD & 9
OPP 49
+62
91.8%
Chris Milton 62 Yd Interception Return (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 18PUNT9 plays · 5 yds · 3:348% → 5%
Q3 0:25
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+8
92.9%
Nick Schuessler pass complete to Jordan Leggett for 8 yds to the Clem 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:25
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+4
93.0%
Nick Schuessler pass complete to Wayne Gallman for 4 yds to the Clem 44Similar
Q4 13:10
3RD & 9
OWN 39
-9
94.6%
Nick Schuessler sacked by Paul Davis and Quayshawn Nealy for a loss of 9 yards to the Clem 30Similar
Q4 12:49
4TH & 18
OWN 30
0
95.3%
Bradley Pinion punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jamal Golden at the GTech 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 19FG9 plays · 45 yds · 4:2497% → 99%
CLEMDrive 20PUNT5 plays · -5 yds · 1:511% → 1%
Q4 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
98.7%
Nick Schuessler pass complete to Stanton Seckinger for 5 yds to the Clem 30Similar
Q4 7:50
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
98.7%
Nick Schuessler pass complete to Stanton Seckinger for 2 yds to the Clem 32Similar
Q4 7:15
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-12
98.8%
Nick Schuessler sacked by Tyler Marcordes for a loss of 12 yards to the Clem 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 21END OF GAME13 plays · 55 yds · 6:04100% → 100%
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 12:45
Justin Thomas pass complete to DeAndre Smelter for 5 yds for a TD, (Harrison Butker KICK)
+12.2
TD · Q3 1:23
Chris Milton 62 Yd Interception Return (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)
+9.7
FG · Q2 9:07
Harrison Butker 25 yd FG GOOD
+4.1