2014 · Week 11 · Nov 6, 2014 · Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium
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Win probability · WAKE
modelWAKE aheadCLEM aheadconfidence bandkey playWAKE scoreCLEM score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 5:18 · Alexander Kinal punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WFrst 43
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 4:31: John Wolford pass complete to Cam Serigne for 14 yds for a TD CLEMSON Penalty, Defensive Holding (Stephone Anthony) declined, (Mike Weaver KICK) — WAKE win probability +6.6 pts (now 28%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:27: Cole Stoudt pass complete to Artavis Scott for 4 yds for a TD, (Ammon Lakip KICK) — CLEM win probability +10.7 pts (now 82%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- FG · Q4 11:08: Mike Weaver 31 yd FG GOOD — WAKE win probability +8.9 pts (now 45%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
- TD · Q4 10:53: Cole Stoudt pass complete to Artavis Scott for 68 yds for a TD, (Ammon Lakip KICK) — CLEM win probability +25.2 pts (now 83%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q4 6:36: Wayne Gallman run for 30 yds for a TD, (Ammon Lakip KICK) — CLEM win probability +8.9 pts (now 96%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WAKE made the numbers' call on 8 of 11CLEM made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
- Q1 9:54WAKE 4th & 12 at WAKE 49, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 13.3% before the snapGo for it13.3%−0.123% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call13.4%average punt
- Q1 6:56CLEM 4th & 14 at CLEM 27, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 84.9% before the snapGo for it84.8%−0.317% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call85.1%average punt
- Q1 3:58WAKE 4th & 10 at WAKE 42, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 16.1% before the snapGo for it16.0%−0.229% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call16.3%average punt
- Q2 14:34CLEM 4th & 1 at CLEM 37, down 7Close callPunted · 77.3% before the snapGo for it77.6%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call76.9%−0.6average punt
- Q2 12:29WAKE 4th & 15 at WAKE 20, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.0% before the snapGo for it23.3%−1.016% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call24.2%average punt
- Q2 8:49CLEM 4th & 5 at WAKE 11, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 72.2% before the snapGo for it71.9%−0.137% to convertField goalTheir call71.9%87% to makePunt67.3%−4.6average punt
- Q2 7:56WAKE 4th & 10 at WAKE 37, up 4Close callWent for it · 25.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call24.9%−0.729% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt25.6%average punt
- Q2 5:01WAKE 4th & 12 at WAKE 30, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.8% before the snapGo for it19.6%−1.122% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call20.7%average punt
- Q3 11:33CLEM 4th & 2 at WAKE 37, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call71.4%57% to convertField goal69.2%−2.240% to makePunt69.0%−2.4average punt
- Q3 10:11CLEM 4th & 4 at WAKE 21, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 70.0% before the snapGo for it69.6%47% to convertField goalTheir call69.3%−0.474% to makePunt62.1%−7.5average punt
- Q3 6:46WAKE 4th & 9 at CLEM 36, down 3Close callKicked a field goal · 29.0% before the snapGo for it29.0%32% to convertField goalTheir call28.8%−0.242% to makePunt28.2%−0.8average punt
- Q3 2:27CLEM 4th & 1 at WAKE 9, up 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call72.2%71% to convertField goal68.3%−4.089% to makePunt57.4%−14.9average punt
- Q3 0:54WAKE 4th & 1 at WAKE 26, down 3Numbers favored go for it by 3.0 ptsPunted · 30.8% before the snapGo for it32.9%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call30.0%−3.0average punt
- Q4 14:44CLEM 4th & 10 at CLEM 1, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.6% before the snapGo for it60.2%−6.424% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call66.6%average punt
- Q4 11:08WAKE 4th & 12 at CLEM 13, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.9% before the snapGo for it29.8%−4.620% to convertField goalTheir call34.3%85% to makePunt19.8%−14.5average punt
- Q4 10:31WAKE 4th & 10 at WAKE 25, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.4% before the snapGo for it17.2%−2.028% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call19.1%average punt
- Q4 5:18WAKE 4th & 30 at WAKE 5, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.6% before the snapGo for it3.5%−0.76% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.3%average punt
- Q4 3:34CLEM 4th & 1 at WAKE 34, up 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call96.6%71% to convertField goal95.3%−1.347% to makePunt94.8%−1.8average punt
- Q4 2:38WAKE 4th & 4 at WAKE 41, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call3.3%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt3.1%−0.1average punt
- Q4 0:57CLEM 4th & 3 at WAKE 25, up 14Close callWent for it · 97.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call97.4%−<0.152% to convertField goal97.4%66% to makePunt95.9%−1.5average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WAKE made the numbers' call on 2 of 2CLEM made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q1 1:09WAKE Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call20.9%97% to makeGo for two20.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:00CLEM Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call78.7%97% to makeGo for two78.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:31WAKE Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call30.1%97% to makeGo for two30.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:27CLEM Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call76.1%97% to makeGo for two76.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 10:53CLEM Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call77.1%97% to makeGo for two77.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 6:36CLEM Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.1%97% to makeGo for two93.3%−0.845% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWAKEDrive 1PUNT11 plays · 24 yds · 4:518% → 10%
Q1 13:28
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+12
8.8%
John Wolford pass complete to Matt James for 12 yds to the WFrst 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+6
9.2%
John Wolford pass complete to E.J. Scott for 6 yds to the WFrst 46Similar
Q1 12:01
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+5
9.4%
John Wolford pass complete to E.J. Scott for 5 yds to the Clem 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:28
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
9.7%
John Wolford pass incomplete to Cam Serigne, broken up by Jayron KearseSimilar
Q1 10:20
3RD & 7
OPP 46
-5
10.2%
John Wolford sacked by Grady Jarrett and Shaq Lawson for a loss of 5 yards to the WFrst 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 2PUNT7 plays · 6 yds · 2:3490% → 88%
Q1 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
10.8%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Artavis Scott for 5 yds to the Clem 36Similar
Q1 7:16
3RD & 4
OWN 37
-10
11.2%
Cole Stoudt sacked by Brandon Chubb for a loss of 10 yards to the Clem 27Similar
Q1 6:56
4TH & 14
OWN 27
0
11.7%
Bradley Pinion punt for 51 yds , Jared Crump returns for no gain to the WFrst 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 3PUNT7 plays · 20 yds · 2:3212% → 13%
Q1 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
12.6%
John Wolford pass complete to Dezmond Wortham for 6 yds to the WFrst 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 4INT4 plays · 20 yds · 0:5487% → 87%
Q1 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+17
13.0%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Artavis Scott for 17 yds to the Clem 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
13.1%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Germone Hopper for 3 yds to the Clem 35Similar
Q1 2:56
3RD & 7
OWN 35
+2
13.4%
Cole Stoudt pass intercepted Kevin Johnson return for 2 yds to the Clem 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 5TD5 plays · 43 yds · 1:3114% → 18%
Q1 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+24
14.4%
Jared Crump pass complete to John Wolford for 24 yds to the Clem 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:32
3RD & 10
OPP 19
+15
15.1%
Dezmond Wortham run for 15 yds to the Clem 4 for a 1ST down CLEMSON Penalty, Offside Defense (Korrin Wiggins) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
18.2%
John Wolford pass complete to Cam Serigne for 4 yds for a TD, (Mike Weaver KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 6PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 1:2083% → 81%
WAKEDrive 7PUNT4 plays · -5 yds · 1:5519% → 20%
Q2 12:29
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
19.8%
Alexander Kinal punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Adam Humphries at the Clem 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 8FG9 plays · 60 yds · 3:2680% → 80%
Q2 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+45
20.5%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Stanton Seckinger for 45 yds to the WFrst 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:24
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+3
19.6%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Adam Humphries for 3 yds to the WFrst 23Similar
Q2 10:35
3RD & 7
OPP 23
-7
21.1%
Cole Stoudt sacked by Josh Banks for a loss of 7 yards to the WFrst 30Similar
Q2 10:15
4TH & 14
OPP 30
+14
23.4%
Stoudt, Cole pass incomplete to Williams, Mike, PENALTY WAKEFOREST pass interference (Johnson, Kevin) 14 yards to the WAKEFOREST16, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CLEMSON. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:21
3RD & 4
OPP 10
-1
22.2%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to D.J. Howard for a loss of 1 yard to the WFrst 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 9DOWNS5 plays · -14 yds · 0:4022% → 22%
CLEMDrive 10TD3 plays · 23 yds · 0:5080% → 84%
WAKEDrive 11FUMBLE6 plays · 3 yds · 1:4618% → 18%
Q2 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
17.8%
Wolford, John pass incomplete to Crump, Jared, PENALTY CLEMSON pass interference (Alexander, MacKensie) 5 yards to the WAKEFOREST32, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WAKEFOREST. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:56
2ND & 12
OWN 30
+8
18.1%
John Wolford pass complete to Matt James for 8 yds to the WFrst 38Similar
Q2 5:28
3RD & 4
OWN 38
-8
19.2%
John Wolford sacked by Grady Jarrett for a loss of 8 yards to the WFrst 30Similar
Q2 5:01
4TH & 12
OWN 30
-3
17.6%
Alexander Kinal punt for 54 yds , Adam Humphries returns for a loss of 3 yards to the Clem 13 Adam Humphries fumbled, recovered by WFrst Kevin JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 12TD2 plays · 13 yds · 0:1422% → 28%
CLEMDrive 13TD16 plays · 75 yds · 3:5375% → 82%
Q2 3:31
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+19
28.6%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Artavis Scott for 19 yds to the Clem 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:30
2ND & 12
OWN 42
+5
28.5%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Germone Hopper for 5 yds to the Clem 47Similar
Q2 2:05
3RD & 7
OWN 47
+11
28.4%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Wayne Gallman for 11 yds to the WFrst 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
26.3%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Artavis Scott for no gain to the WFrst 22Similar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+3
26.9%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Wayne Gallman for 3 yds to the WFrst 19Similar
Q2 0:35
3RD & 7
OPP 19
+15
30.1%
Stoudt, Cole pass incomplete to Leggett, Jordan, PENALTY WAKEFOREST pass interference (Janvion, Ryan) 15 yards to the WAKEFOREST4, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CLEMSON. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
18.1%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Artavis Scott for 4 yds for a TD, (Ammon Lakip KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 14END OF HALF9 plays · 30 yds · 0:1523% → 31%
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+15
22.9%
Wolford, John pass incomplete to Armstrong, John, PENALTY CLEMSON pass interference (Kearse, Jayron) 15 yards to the CLEMSON47, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WAKEFOREST. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:01
3RD & 10
OPP 47
+15
21.6%
Wolford, John pass incomplete to Crump, Jared, PENALTY CLEMSON personal foul (Barnes, Tavaris) 15 yards to the CLEMSON32, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WAKEFOREST. for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 15FG14 plays · 54 yds · 4:4976% → 77%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 15
OWN 20
-1
24.0%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Artavis Scott for a loss of 1 yard to the Clem 19Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+11
24.6%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Wayne Gallman for 11 yds to the Clem 30Similar
Q3 13:55
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+10
24.7%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Mike Williams for 10 yds to the Clem 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:33
4TH & 2
OPP 37
+10
25.6%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Artavis Scott for 10 yds to the WFrst 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:35
3RD & 8
OPP 25
+4
25.0%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Germone Hopper for 4 yds to the WFrst 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 16MISSED FG11 plays · 43 yds · 3:1224% → 26%
Q3 9:30
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+16
24.4%
John Wolford pass complete to Cam Serigne for 16 yds to the WFrst 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:28
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+9
28.4%
John Wolford pass complete to Jared Crump for 9 yds to the Clem 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:53
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
29.3%
John Wolford pass incomplete to Matt James, broken up by Garry PetersSimilar
Q3 7:49
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+8
29.2%
Wolford, John pass incomplete to James, Matt, PENALTY CLEMSON pass interference (Peters, Garry) 8 yards to the CLEMSON37, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WAKEFOREST. for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 17DOWNS12 plays · 47 yds · 4:1176% → 74%
Q3 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
23.9%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Jordan Leggett for 9 yds to the Clem 45Similar
Q3 5:07
2ND & 7
OPP 40
0
23.0%
Cole Stoudt pass incomplete to Artavis Scott, broken up by Merrill NoelSimilar
Q3 4:50
3RD & 7
OPP 40
+9
23.2%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Mike Williams for 9 yds to the WFrst 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:01
2ND & 7
OPP 28
+10
21.9%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Mike Williams for 10 yds to the WFrst 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:13
2ND & 1
OPP 9
0
22.3%
Cole Stoudt pass incomplete to Mike Williams, broken up by Brad WatsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 18PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 1:1629% → 28%
Q3 0:54
4TH & 1
OWN 26
+73
28.3%
Alexander Kinal punt for 73 yds, downed at the WAKEFOREST 1 CLEMSON Penalty, Personal Foul (DeShawn Williams) to the Clem 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 19PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:5671% → 68%
Q4 14:44
4TH & 10
OWN 1
+6
32.2%
Bradley Pinion punt for 58 yds , Jared Crump returns for 6 yds to the WFrst 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 20FG9 plays · 40 yds · 3:2935% → 45%
Q4 14:37
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+15
35.1%
Wolford, John pass incomplete to Serigne, Cam (Smith, Robert), PENALTY CLEMSON personal foul (Smith, Robert) 15 yards to the CLEMSON38, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WAKEFOREST. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:45
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+12
38.4%
Wolford, John pass incomplete to James, Matt, PENALTY CLEMSON pass interference (Peters, Garry) 12 yards to the CLEMSON11, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WAKEFOREST. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:11
3RD & 12
OPP 13
0
35.6%
John Wolford pass incomplete to Matt James, broken up by Garry PetersSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 21TD2 plays · 68 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q4 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+68
16.7%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Artavis Scott for 68 yds for a TD, (Ammon Lakip KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 22PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:1821% → 18%
Q4 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
20.5%
John Wolford pass incomplete to Matt James, broken up by Garry PetersSimilar
Q4 10:46
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
20.4%
John Wolford pass incomplete to Devin Pike, broken up by Josh WatsonSimilar
Q4 10:31
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
18.1%
Alexander Kinal punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Adam Humphries at the Clem 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 23TD9 plays · 72 yds · 3:4984% → 96%
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
13.9%
Cole Stoudt pass incomplete to Mike Williams, broken up by Ryan JanvionSimilar
Q4 8:37
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
13.3%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Germone Hopper for 2 yds to the WFrst 45Similar
Q4 7:16
3RD & 2
OPP 39
+9
13.0%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Germone Hopper for 9 yds to the WFrst 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 24PUNT5 plays · -20 yds · 1:085% → 4%
Q4 6:15
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-17
4.7%
John Wolford sacked by Corey Crawford for a loss of 17 yards to the WFrst 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 25DOWNS5 plays · 8 yds · 1:3296% → 97%
Q4 3:40
3RD & 2
OPP 35
+1
3.1%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Germone Hopper for 1 yd to the WFrst 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 26DOWNS4 plays · -3 yds · 0:473% → 3%
Q4 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
3.0%
John Wolford pass complete to Matt James for 8 yds to the WFrst 43Similar
Q4 3:15
2ND & 2
OWN 43
-2
3.0%
John Wolford sacked by Deshaun Watson and D.J. Reader for a loss of 2 yards to the WFrst 41Similar
Q4 2:38
4TH & 4
OWN 41
-9
2.9%
John Wolford sacked by Shaq Lawson for a loss of 9 yards to the WFrst 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 27DOWNS4 plays · 9 yds · 1:3398% → 98%
Q4 0:57
4TH & 3
OPP 25
+2
2.0%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Germone Hopper for 2 yds to the WFrst 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 28END OF GAME4 plays · 6 yds · 0:502% → 2%
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:53
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Artavis Scott for 68 yds for a TD, (Ammon Lakip KICK)
-25.2
TD · Q2 0:27
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Artavis Scott for 4 yds for a TD, (Ammon Lakip KICK)
-10.7
FG · Q4 11:08
Mike Weaver 31 yd FG GOOD
+8.9