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UNC

North Carolina 35 at Clemson 50

CLEM
2014 · Week 5 · Sep 27, 2014 · Memorial Stadium (Clemson, SC)
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Win probability · CLEM
modelCLEM aheadUNC aheadconfidence bandkey playCLEM scoreUNC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGTDSAFETYTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 13:09 · Tommy Hibbard punt for 58 yds , Adam Humphries returns for no gain to the Clem 26 Adam Humphries fumbled, recovered by Clem
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+33.5+16.80−16.8−33.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 5Home team on offense+0.0Pregame prior+26.0Score differential−0.1Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:53: Deshaun Watson pass complete to Germone Hopper for 50 yds for a TD, (Ammon Lakip KICK) — CLEM win probability +6.9 pts (now 85%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 6:45: Marquise Williams pass complete to Mack Hollins for 17 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK) — UNC win probability +9.7 pts (now 20%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 12:17: Marquise Williams pass complete to T.J. Thorpe for 41 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK) — UNC win probability +7.6 pts (now 22%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 9:30: Deshaun Watson pass complete to Mike Williams for 24 yds for a TD, (Ammon Lakip KICK) — CLEM win probability +5.8 pts (now 90%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 3:51: Marquise Williams pass complete to Quinshad Davis for 2 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK) — UNC win probability +7.6 pts (now 11%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CLEM made the numbers' call on 5 of 7UNC made the numbers' call on 10 of 10
  1. Q1 13:09UNC 4th & 14 at UNC 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.5%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:11UNC 4th & 8 at UNC 42, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.1%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:09CLEM 4th & 19 at CLEM 43, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.5%−0.5
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:33UNC 4th & 1 at UNC 15, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    23.4%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:34UNC 4th & 9 at UNC 37, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.4%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.6%
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:42CLEM 4th & 10 at UNC 10, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 76.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.7%−0.4
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    76.1%
    88% to make
    Punt
    73.7%−2.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:49UNC 4th & 9 at UNC 19, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.8%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 11:13UNC 4th & 28 at UNC 7, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.9%−2.9
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.8%
    average punt
  9. Q2 9:47CLEM 4th & 10 at UNC 28, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 86.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.7%−0.6
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.2%
    60% to make
    Punt
    82.5%−3.8
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:52CLEM 4th & 1 at CLEM 47, up 13
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsPunted · 84.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.2%−1.7
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:35CLEM 4th & 5 at CLEM 39, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.5%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.6%
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:08UNC 4th & 2 at UNC 45, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.5%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.5%
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:39UNC 4th & 20 at UNC 24, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.4%−2.4
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.8%
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:51UNC 4th & 2 at CLEM 2, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    2.2%−0.9
    94% to make
    Punt
    -1.9%−5.0
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:57CLEM 4th & 2 at CLEM 31, up 15
    Close callPunted · 94.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.0%−0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:54UNC 4th & 15 at UNC 36, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.5%−0.9
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.5%
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:01CLEM 4th & 7 at CLEM 23, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.9%−0.4
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.3%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CLEM made the numbers' call on 6 of 6UNC made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 12:34CLEM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:53CLEM Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:45UNC Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 12:17UNC Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:30CLEM Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 6:21CLEM Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 3:51UNC Touchdown, down 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 14:44CLEM Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 14:30UNC Touchdown, down 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 5:56CLEM Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 5:08UNC Touchdown, down 16 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.0%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNCDrive 1FUMBLE
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:5123% → 24%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
76.7%
Romar Morris run for 4 yds to the NCaro 24Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 6
OWN 24
-8
76.5%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Romar Morris for a loss of 8 yards to the NCaro 16Similar
Q1 13:44
3RD & 14
OWN 16
0
76.5%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Romar Morris for no gain to the NCaro 16Similar
Q1 13:09
4TH & 14
OWN 16
0
76.4%
Tommy Hibbard punt for 58 yds , Adam Humphries returns for no gain to the Clem 26 Adam Humphries fumbled, recovered by ClemSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 2TD
2 plays · 74 yds · 0:1176% → 77%
Q1 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
76.2%
Germone Hopper run for no gain to the Clem 26Similar
Q1 12:34
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+74
76.8%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Germone Hopper for 74 yds for a TD, (Ammon Lakip KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 1:1523% → 23%
Q1 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
76.8%
Marquise Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:21
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
76.8%
Marquise Williams run for 15 yds to the NCaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
76.7%
Romar Morris run for 1 yd to the NCaro 41Similar
Q1 11:40
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+1
76.7%
Elijah Hood run for 1 yd to the NCaro 42Similar
Q1 11:19
3RD & 8
OWN 42
0
76.7%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Mack HollinsSimilar
Q1 11:11
4TH & 8
OWN 42
0
76.9%
Tommy Hibbard punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Adam Humphries at the Clem 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 26 yds · 2:4177% → 77%
Q1 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+11
76.9%
Deshaun Watson run for 11 yds to the Clem 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+9
77.0%
D.J. Howard run for 9 yds to the Clem 37Similar
Q1 10:12
2ND & 1
OWN 37
+15
77.2%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Mike Williams for 15 yds to the NCaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:57
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
77.4%
D.J. Howard run for 3 yds to the NCaro 45Similar
Q1 9:23
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+4
77.4%
D.J. Howard run for 4 yds to the NCaro 41Similar
Q1 9:07
3RD & 3
OPP 41
-5
77.4%
CLEMSON Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NCaro 46Similar
Q1 8:28
3RD & 8
OPP 46
-11
77.3%
Deshaun Watson sacked by Nazair Jones for a loss of 11 yards to the Clem 43Similar
Q1 8:09
4TH & 19
OWN 43
+3
76.8%
Bradley Pinion punt for 52 yds , Ryan Switzer returns for 3 yds to the NCaro 46 NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Illegal Block (4 Yards) to the NCaro 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 5PUNT
12 plays · 33 yds · 3:1423% → 23%
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+2
77.0%
Mitch Trubisky run for 2 yds to the NCaro 6Similar
Q1 7:20
2ND & 8
OWN 6
+7
77.1%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Quinshad Davis for 7 yds to the NCaro 13Similar
Q1 6:56
3RD & 3
OWN 13
+2
77.2%
Elijah Hood run for 2 yds to the NCaro 15Similar
Q1 6:33
4TH & 1
OWN 15
+11
77.4%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Kendrick Singleton for 11 yds to the NCaro 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
77.0%
Elijah Hood run for 4 yds to the NCaro 30Similar
Q1 5:37
2ND & 6
OWN 30
-1
76.8%
Elijah Hood run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 29Similar
Q1 5:05
3RD & 7
OWN 29
+7
77.2%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Bug Howard for 7 yds to the NCaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
76.5%
Ryan Switzer run for 1 yd to the NCaro 37Similar
Q1 4:45
2ND & 9
OWN 37
0
76.6%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Ryan SwitzerSimilar
Q1 4:34
3RD & 9
OWN 37
0
76.9%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to T.J. Logan for no gain to the NCaro 37Similar
Q1 4:34
4TH & 9
OWN 37
+23
77.3%
Tommy Hibbard punt for 45 yds , Adam Humphries returns for 23 yds to the CLEMSON 40 NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the NCaro 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 6FG
8 plays · 34 yds · 2:3978% → 77%
Q1 3:21
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
77.9%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Artavis Scott for 1 yd to the NCaro 43Similar
Q1 3:02
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+27
77.8%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Stanton Seckinger for 27 yds to the NCaro 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:49
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
77.9%
Adam Choice run for no gain to the NCaro 16Similar
Q1 2:49
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+7
77.9%
Deshaun Watson sacked by Dajaun Drennon for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 18 for a 1ST down NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Personal Foul (Dajaun Drennon) to the NCaro 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-4
77.8%
Adam Humphries run for a loss of 4 yards to the NCaro 13Similar
Q1 1:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
+3
77.8%
Adam Choice run for 3 yds to the NCaro 10Similar
Q1 0:42
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
0
77.5%
Deshaun Watson pass incomplete to Adam ChoiceSimilar
Q1 0:42
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+27
77.4%
Ammon Lakip 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:1723% → 22%
Q1 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
77.5%
Marquise Williams pass complete to T.J. Logan for 1 yd to the NCaro 19Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 9
OWN 19
0
77.7%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Ryan SwitzerSimilar
Q2 14:56
3RD & 9
OWN 19
0
78.1%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to T.J. ThorpeSimilar
Q2 14:49
4TH & 9
OWN 19
0
78.4%
Tommy Hibbard punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Adam Humphries at the Clem 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 8TD
6 plays · 62 yds · 1:3078% → 85%
Q2 14:23
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
77.9%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Artavis Scott for 5 yds to the Clem 43Similar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 5
OWN 43
-3
78.2%
D.J. Howard run for a loss of 3 yards to the Clem 40Similar
Q2 13:38
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+9
77.4%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Mike Williams for 9 yds to the Clem 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
78.3%
Deshaun Watson pass incomplete to Mike WilliamsSimilar
Q2 13:04
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+1
78.2%
D.J. Howard run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 12:53
3RD & 9
50
+50
85.1%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Germone Hopper for 50 yds for a TD, (Ammon Lakip KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · -18 yds · 1:4016% → 15%
Q2 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
84.0%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (Jack Tabb) to the NCaro 20Similar
Q2 12:42
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
84.1%
Romar Morris run for no gain to the NCaro 20Similar
Q2 12:03
2ND & 15
OWN 20
-1
84.5%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Romar Morris for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 19Similar
Q2 11:41
3RD & 16
OWN 19
-12
84.7%
Marquise Williams sacked by Vic Beasley for a loss of 12 yards to the NCaro 7Similar
Q2 11:13
4TH & 28
OWN 7
0
85.2%
Tommy Hibbard punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Adam Humphries at the NCaro 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 10FG
5 plays · 15 yds · 1:2686% → 90%
Q2 11:13
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+15
86.4%
Stoudt, Cole pass incomplete to Williams, Mike, PENALTY UNC pass interference 15 yards to the UNC28, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CLEMSON. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-1
86.7%
Cole Stoudt run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 29Similar
Q2 10:33
2ND & 11
OPP 29
0
86.7%
Cole Stoudt pass incomplete to C.J. DavidsonSimilar
Q2 10:33
3RD & 11
OPP 29
+1
86.4%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Adam Humphries for 1 yd to the NCaro 28Similar
Q2 9:47
4TH & 10
OPP 28
+45
89.5%
Ammon Lakip 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 11TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 2:4010% → 20%
Q2 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
89.9%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Bug Howard for 5 yds to the NCaro 30Similar
Q2 9:20
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+8
89.7%
Elijah Hood run for 8 yds to the NCaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
90.0%
Elijah Hood run for 11 yds to the NCaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
89.7%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Ryan SwitzerSimilar
Q2 8:30
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+8
90.1%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Jack Tabb for 8 yds to the Clem 43Similar
Q2 8:12
3RD & 2
OPP 43
+13
89.2%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Mack Hollins for 13 yds to the Clem 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:56
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
88.9%
Elijah Hood run for 3 yds to the Clem 27Similar
Q2 7:56
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+3
88.8%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 3 yds to the Clem 24Similar
Q2 6:50
3RD & 4
OPP 24
+7
89.5%
Marquise Williams run for 7 yds to the Clem 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
79.8%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Mack Hollins for 17 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 2:5382% → 83%
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
82.1%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Wayne Gallman for 4 yds to the Clem 29Similar
Q2 5:56
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+9
82.3%
Deshaun Watson run for 9 yds to the Clem 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
83.1%
Deshaun Watson pass incomplete to Wayne GallmanSimilar
Q2 5:00
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+2
83.0%
C.J. Davidson run for 2 yds to the Clem 40Similar
Q2 4:18
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+7
82.7%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to C.J. Davidson for 7 yds to the Clem 47Similar
Q2 3:52
4TH & 1
OWN 47
0
82.5%
Bradley Pinion punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Ryan Switzer at the NCaro 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 13SF
3 plays · -8 yds · 0:2717% → 15%
Q2 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+4
82.9%
Elijah Hood run for 4 yds to the NCaro 12Similar
Q2 3:22
2ND & 6
OWN 12
0
83.0%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Quinshad DavisSimilar
Q2 3:13
3RD & 6
OWN 12
-12
85.1%
Marquise Williams sacked by Shaq Lawson for a loss of 12 yards for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:3387% → 87%
Q2 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
86.5%
D.J. Howard run for 3 yds to the Clem 37Similar
Q2 2:07
2ND & 7
OWN 37
-3
87.0%
D.J. Howard run for a loss of 3 yards to the Clem 34Similar
Q2 2:07
3RD & 10
OWN 34
+5
86.5%
Deshaun Watson run for 5 yds to the Clem 39 CLEMSON Penalty, False Start ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 1:35
4TH & 5
OWN 39
0
86.8%
Bradley Pinion punt for 46 yds , Ryan Switzer returns for no gain to the NCaro 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 15PUNT
12 plays · 30 yds · 1:2215% → 14%
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
85.3%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Bug HowardSimilar
Q2 1:07
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+9
85.7%
Mitch Trubisky run for 9 yds to the NCaro 24Similar
Q2 0:46
3RD & 1
OWN 24
+2
85.0%
Mitch Trubisky run for 2 yds to the NCaro 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
85.4%
Romar Morris run for no gain to the NCaro 26Similar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 10
OWN 26
-5
86.1%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (Kiaro Holts) to the NCaro 21Similar
Q2 0:32
2ND & 15
OWN 21
+16
86.2%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Jack Tabb for 16 yds to the NCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
85.1%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Mack HollinsSimilar
Q2 0:22
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
85.3%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Ryan SwitzerSimilar
Q2 0:16
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+8
85.9%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Bug Howard for 8 yds to the NCaro 45Similar
Q2 0:08
4TH & 2
OWN 45
0
85.9%
Tommy Hibbard punt for 37 yds, downed at the Clem 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 16END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-1
88.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Clem 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 17INT
5 plays · 13 yds · 0:5588% → 87%
Q3 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
87.5%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Germone Hopper for 15 yds to the Clem 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
88.0%
D.J. Howard run for 4 yds to the Clem 44Similar
Q3 14:07
2ND & 6
OWN 44
-6
88.2%
Deshaun Watson sacked by Justin Thomason for a loss of 6 yards to the Clem 38Similar
Q3 13:51
3RD & 12
OWN 38
+7
87.3%
Deshaun Watson pass intercepted Sam Smiley return for 7 yds to the NCaro 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 18TD
5 plays · 56 yds · 1:0514% → 22%
Q3 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
85.8%
Elijah Hood run for 4 yds to the NCaro 48Similar
Q3 13:22
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+4
85.4%
Elijah Hood run for 4 yds to the Clem 48Similar
Q3 13:20
3RD & 2
OPP 48
+7
85.4%
Marquise Williams run for 7 yds to the Clem 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
85.4%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Bug HowardSimilar
Q3 12:17
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+41
77.8%
Marquise Williams pass complete to T.J. Thorpe for 41 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 19TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:2581% → 90%
Q3 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
81.2%
Deshaun Watson run for 9 yds to the Clem 34Similar
Q3 11:35
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+4
82.0%
C.J. Davidson run for 4 yds to the Clem 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
82.5%
C.J. Davidson run for 5 yds to the Clem 43Similar
Q3 10:53
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+1
82.9%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Artavis Scott for 1 yd to the Clem 44Similar
Q3 10:27
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+31
82.1%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Mike Williams for 31 yds to the NCaro 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
83.6%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Adam Humphries for 1 yd to the NCaro 24Similar
Q3 9:36
2ND & 9
OPP 24
0
83.7%
C.J. Davidson run for no gain to the NCaro 24Similar
Q3 9:30
3RD & 9
OPP 24
+24
89.5%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Mike Williams for 24 yds for a TD, (Ammon Lakip KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 20PUNT
9 plays · 2 yds · 1:3912% → 11%
Q3 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
87.9%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Quinshad DavisSimilar
Q3 9:00
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+7
88.3%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Jack Tabb for 7 yds to the NCaro 29Similar
Q3 8:50
3RD & 3
OWN 29
+5
87.8%
CLEMSON Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the NCaro 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
87.5%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Mack HollinsSimilar
Q3 8:44
2ND & 10
OWN 34
-7
87.8%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Romar Morris for 8 yds to the NCaro 42 NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Clipping (-15 Yards) to the NCaro 27Similar
Q3 7:49
2ND & 17
OWN 27
-3
89.0%
Romar Morris run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCaro 24Similar
Q3 7:46
3RD & 20
OWN 24
0
89.2%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Jack TabbSimilar
Q3 7:39
4TH & 20
OWN 24
0
89.3%
Tommy Hibbard punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Adam Humphries at the Clem 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 21TD
5 plays · 14 yds · 1:0991% → 97%
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
90.5%
Deshaun Watson pass incomplete to Artavis ScottSimilar
Q3 7:11
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+14
90.5%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Adam Humphries for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:11
1ST & 10
50
-35
91.0%
Watson, Deshaun pass incomplete, PENALTY CLEMSON pass interference 35 yards to the UNC35, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CLEMSON. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:11
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
91.1%
Adam Choice run for 2 yds to the NCaro 33Similar
Q3 6:21
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+33
96.9%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Mike Williams for 33 yds for a TD, (Ammon Lakip KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 22TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 2:093% → 11%
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
96.7%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 9 yds to the NCaro 29Similar
Q3 5:53
2ND & 1
OWN 29
0
96.5%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Bug HowardSimilar
Q3 5:20
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+67
96.7%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Eric Albright for 67 yds to the Clem 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
96.2%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Quinshad DavisSimilar
Q3 4:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
96.3%
Elijah Hood run for 3 yds to the Clem 1Similar
Q3 4:28
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
96.7%
Marquise Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the Clem 2Similar
Q3 3:51
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
89.1%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Quinshad Davis for 2 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 23TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:4493% → 99%
Q3 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
93.3%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Artavis Scott for 7 yds to the Clem 32Similar
Q3 3:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+1
93.6%
D.J. Howard run for 1 yd to the Clem 33Similar
Q3 2:19
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+9
93.6%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Artavis Scott for 9 yds to the Clem 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+8
94.1%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to D.J. Howard for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 1:44
2ND & 2
50
0
94.1%
Deshaun Watson pass incomplete to Mike WilliamsSimilar
Q3 1:31
3RD & 2
50
+3
93.9%
Deshaun Watson run for 3 yds to the NCaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
94.4%
C.J. Davidson run for 2 yds to the NCaro 45Similar
Q3 0:33
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+10
94.6%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Adam Humphries for 10 yds to the NCaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
94.7%
C.J. Davidson run for 2 yds to the NCaro 33Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 8
OPP 33
0
94.7%
Deshaun Watson pass incomplete to Artavis ScottSimilar
Q4 14:44
3RD & 8
OPP 33
+33
98.5%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Artavis Scott for 33 yds for a TD, (Ammon Lakip KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 24TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q4 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
92.7%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 75 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:2994% → 94%
Q4 14:26
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
94.1%
Wayne Gallman run for 4 yds to the Clem 27Similar
Q4 14:26
2ND & 6
OWN 27
0
94.2%
Deshaun Watson pass incomplete to Mike WilliamsSimilar
Q4 14:26
3RD & 6
OWN 27
+4
94.0%
Deshaun Watson run for 4 yds to the Clem 31Similar
Q4 12:57
4TH & 2
OWN 31
+23
94.4%
Bradley Pinion punt for 41 yds , Ryan Switzer returns for 23 yds to the CLEMSON 46 NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the NCaro 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 2:037% → 6%
Q4 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-7
92.6%
Marquise Williams sacked by Vic Beasley for a loss of 7 yards to the NCaro 34Similar
Q4 11:35
2ND & 17
OWN 34
-3
93.8%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Elijah Hood for a loss of 3 yards to the NCaro 31Similar
Q4 11:03
3RD & 20
OWN 31
+5
94.1%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Mack Hollins for 5 yds to the NCaro 36Similar
Q4 10:54
4TH & 15
OWN 36
+47
94.2%
Tommy Hibbard punt for 47 yds , Adam Humphries returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Clem 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 27TD
15 plays · 84 yds · 4:3496% → 100%
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
95.6%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to C.J. Davidson for 5 yds to the Clem 21Similar
Q4 9:56
2ND & 5
OWN 21
+6
95.7%
Deshaun Watson run for 6 yds to the Clem 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+15
95.7%
Watson, Deshaun pass incomplete to Humphries, Adam, PENALTY UNC pass interference 15 yards to the CLEMSON42, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CLEMSON. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
96.1%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Artavis Scott for 3 yds to the Clem 45Similar
Q4 8:56
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+10
96.1%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Mike Williams for 10 yds to the NCaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:35
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
96.3%
C.J. Davidson run for 3 yds to the NCaro 42Similar
Q4 7:59
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+7
96.3%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Artavis Scott for 7 yds to the NCaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:59
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
96.4%
D.J. Howard run for 2 yds to the NCaro 33Similar
Q4 7:48
2ND & 8
OPP 33
0
96.4%
Deshaun Watson pass incomplete to Mike WilliamsSimilar
Q4 7:31
3RD & 8
OPP 33
+27
96.3%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Demarre Kitt for 27 yds to the NCaro 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
96.6%
D.J. Howard run for 5 yds to the NCaro 1Similar
Q4 6:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
96.9%
Deshaun Watson run for no gain to the NCaro 1Similar
Q4 6:01
3RD & 0
OPP 1
-4
97.0%
CLEMSON Penalty, False Start (-4 Yards) to the NCaro 5Similar
Q4 5:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.5%
Jordan Leggett 5 Yd pass from Deshaun Watson (Ammon Lakip Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 28TD
6 plays · 58 yds · 0:431% → 6%
Q4 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+20
99.2%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Austin Proehl for 20 yds to the Clem 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:51
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+10
99.2%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Bug Howard for 10 yds to the Clem 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:51
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+19
99.1%
Elijah Hood run for 19 yds to the Clem 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
94.1%
Elijah Hood run for 9 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 29PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:2298% → 98%
Q4 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
98.2%
D.J. Howard run for 3 yds to the Clem 23Similar
Q4 4:14
2ND & 7
OWN 23
0
98.3%
Cole Stoudt run for no gain to the Clem 23Similar
Q4 4:10
3RD & 7
OWN 23
0
98.5%
Cole Stoudt pass incomplete to Adam HumphriesSimilar
Q4 4:01
4TH & 7
OWN 23
-4
98.4%
Bradley Pinion punt for 49 yds , Ryan Switzer returns for a loss of 4 yards to the NCaro 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 30INT
13 plays · 51 yds · 1:363% → 3%
Q4 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
97.3%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Khris Francis for 7 yds to the NCaro 31Similar
Q4 4:01
2ND & 3
OWN 31
-5
97.1%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NCaro 26Similar
Q4 4:01
2ND & 8
OWN 26
0
97.3%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Kendrick SingletonSimilar
Q4 3:40
3RD & 8
OWN 26
+20
97.5%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Bug Howard for 20 yds to the NCaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-5
97.2%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NCaro 41Similar
Q4 3:09
1ST & 15
OWN 41
+5
97.5%
CLEMSON Penalty, False Start (5 Yards) to the NCaro 46Similar
Q4 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+26
97.3%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Quinshad Davis for 26 yds to the Clem 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
96.6%
Marquise Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:00
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+13
96.8%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Quinshad Davis for 13 yds to the Clem 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
96.6%
Khris Francis run for no gain to the Clem 15Similar
Q4 2:32
2ND & 10
OPP 15
-10
96.9%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jared Cohen) to the Clem 25Similar
Q4 2:25
1ST & 20
OPP 25
0
97.2%
Marquise Williams pass intercepted, touchback. Robert Smith return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 31END OF GAME
6 plays · 14 yds · 2:2099% → 99%
Q4 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
98.9%
D.J. Howard run for 2 yds to the Clem 22Similar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+2
99.2%
C.J. Davidson run for 2 yds to the Clem 24Similar
Q4 1:22
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+12
99.3%
C.J. Davidson run for 12 yds to the Clem 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
99.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Clem 35Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 11
OWN 35
-1
99.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Clem 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 6:45
Marquise Williams pass complete to Mack Hollins for 17 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)
-9.7
TD · Q3 12:17
Marquise Williams pass complete to T.J. Thorpe for 41 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)
-7.6
TD · Q3 3:51
Marquise Williams pass complete to Quinshad Davis for 2 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)
-7.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com