Try the model
CLEM

Clemson 17 at Florida State 23

FSU
2014 · Week 4 · Sep 20, 2014 · Doak Campbell Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · FSU
modelFSU aheadCLEM aheadconfidence bandkey playFSU scoreCLEM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTFGFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 4:11 · Bradley Pinion punt for 56 yds, downed at the FlaSt 12
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+41.5+20.80−20.8−41.5Q1Q2Q3Q4OTPlay 166Pregame prior+3.9Home team on offense−1.2Score differential−4.4Garbage-time factor+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.5Time remaining−2.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 11:05: Mario Pender run for 1 yd for a TD, (Roberto Aguayo KICK) — FSU win probability +13.8 pts (now 81%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 11:44: Deshaun Watson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Bradley Pinion KICK) — CLEM win probability +28.4 pts (now 68%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 6:04: Sean Maguire pass complete to Rashad Greene for 74 yds for a TD, (Roberto Aguayo KICK) — FSU win probability +31.4 pts (now 64%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · OT 0:00: Karlos Williams run for 13 yds to the Clem 12 for a 1ST down — FSU win probability +16.8 pts (now 65%) (top driver: defense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  5. TD · OT 0:00: Karlos Williams run for 12 yds for a TD — FSU win probability +21.2 pts (now 86%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FSU made the numbers' call on 9 of 9CLEM made the numbers' call on 4 of 9
  1. Q1 13:49CLEM 4th & 2 at CLEM 33, tied
    Close callPunted · 9.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:56FSU 4th & 14 at FSU 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.8%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:02CLEM 4th & 3 at FSU 6, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 10.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.7%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    10.6%−0.1
    91% to make
    Punt
    10.2%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:40FSU 4th & 7 at CLEM 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 88.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.4%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.4%
    51% to make
    Punt
    88.4%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:33CLEM 4th & 1 at CLEM 25, down 3
    Close callPunted · 11.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.5%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q1 4:35FSU 4th & 15 at CLEM 43, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.5%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    87.6%−0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    87.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:52CLEM 4th & 5 at FSU 13, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 14.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.8%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.9%
    85% to make
    Punt
    12.4%−1.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 12:38FSU 4th & 18 at FSU 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.6%−0.8
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.4%
    average punt
  9. Q2 9:48CLEM 4th & 9 at FSU 35, tied
    Close callPunted · 17.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.2%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    17.2%−<0.1
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    17.0%−0.2
    average punt
  10. Q2 8:50FSU 4th & 13 at FSU 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.3%−0.9
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.3%
    average punt
  11. Q2 4:05FSU 4th & 17 at FSU 41, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.1%−2.1
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.2%
    average punt
  12. Q2 2:06CLEM 4th & 1 at CLEM 25, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 31.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.8%−1.2
    average punt
  13. Q2 0:45FSU 4th & 17 at CLEM 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.2%−0.7
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    66.8%−0.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    66.9%
    average punt
  14. Q3 8:45CLEM 4th & 4 at CLEM 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.1%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.2%
    average punt
  15. Q3 6:20FSU 4th & 16 at FSU 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.3%−4.5
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.7%
    average punt
  16. Q4 8:55FSU 4th & 12 at FSU 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.7%−2.6
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.3%
    average punt
  17. Q4 7:25CLEM 4th & 5 at CLEM 19, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.0%−1.0
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.1%
    average punt
  18. Q4 4:11CLEM 4th & 7 at CLEM 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.8%−5.6
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.4%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2CLEM made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 5:56CLEM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 11:05FSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 11:44CLEM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.8%−0.4
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 6:04FSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.4%−1.0
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CLEMDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:079% → 9%
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
91.5%
Cole Stoudt pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:50
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
91.5%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Charone Peake for 5 yds to the Clem 30Similar
Q1 14:20
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+3
91.4%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to C.J. Davidson for 3 yds to the Clem 33Similar
Q1 13:49
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
91.2%
Bradley Pinion punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Rashad Greene at the FlaSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:4991% → 91%
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-4
91.2%
Karlos Williams run for a loss of 4 yards to the FlaSt 22Similar
Q1 13:08
2ND & 14
OWN 22
0
91.1%
Sean Maguire pass incomplete to Nick O'LearySimilar
Q1 13:02
3RD & 14
OWN 22
0
91.0%
Sean Maguire pass incomplete to Rashad GreeneSimilar
Q1 12:56
4TH & 14
OWN 22
0
90.9%
Cason Beatty punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Adam Humphries at the Clem 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 3MISSED FG
6 plays · 53 yds · 1:469% → 10%
Q1 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+14
90.9%
Cole Stoudt run for 14 yds to the FlaSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:28
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+32
90.8%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Artavis Scott for 32 yds to the FlaSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
90.6%
Cole Stoudt run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 8Similar
Q1 11:35
2ND & 5
OPP 8
+2
90.5%
C.J. Davidson run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 6Similar
Q1 11:06
3RD & 3
OPP 6
0
90.3%
Cole Stoudt pass incomplete to Jordan LeggettSimilar
Q1 11:02
4TH & 3
OPP 6
+23
90.4%
Ammon Lakip 23 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 4FG
9 plays · 48 yds · 3:1591% → 90%
Q1 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
90.5%
Rashad Greene run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaSt 18Similar
Q1 10:20
2ND & 12
OWN 18
+6
90.3%
Sean Maguire pass complete to Nick O'Leary for 6 yds to the FlaSt 24Similar
Q1 9:46
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+14
90.0%
Sean Maguire pass complete to Jesus Wilson for 14 yds to the FlaSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
90.0%
Sean Maguire pass incomplete to Kermit WhitfieldSimilar
Q1 8:55
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+27
89.9%
Sean Maguire pass complete to Karlos Williams for 27 yds to the Clem 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
90.0%
Mario Pender run for 3 yds to the Clem 32Similar
Q1 7:50
2ND & 7
OPP 32
0
89.9%
Sean Maguire pass incomplete to Nick O'LearySimilar
Q1 7:46
3RD & 7
OPP 32
0
89.7%
Sean Maguire pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:40
4TH & 7
OPP 32
+50
89.8%
Roberto Aguayo 50 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:5710% → 10%
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
89.8%
Cole Stoudt run for 4 yds to the Clem 20Similar
Q1 6:50
2ND & 6
OWN 20
+4
89.6%
Wayne Gallman run for 4 yds to the Clem 24Similar
Q1 6:10
3RD & 2
OWN 24
+1
89.6%
Cole Stoudt run for 1 yd to the Clem 25Similar
Q1 5:33
4TH & 1
OWN 25
0
89.6%
Bradley Pinion punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Rashad Greene at the FlaSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 31 yds · 0:5089% → 89%
Q1 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+36
89.3%
Sean Maguire pass complete to Jesus Wilson for 36 yds to the Clem 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:11
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-5
89.6%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (Josue Matias) to the Clem 43Similar
Q1 4:50
1ST & 15
OPP 43
0
89.3%
Sean Maguire pass incomplete to Jesus WilsonSimilar
Q1 4:46
2ND & 15
OPP 43
0
89.3%
Sean Maguire pass incomplete to Karlos WilliamsSimilar
Q1 4:42
3RD & 15
OPP 43
0
89.1%
Sean Maguire pass incomplete to Rashad GreeneSimilar
Q1 4:35
4TH & 15
OPP 43
0
89.4%
Cason Beatty punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Adam Humphries at the Clem 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 7FG
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:3810% → 14%
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-1
89.6%
Wayne Gallman run for a loss of 1 yard to the Clem 11Similar
Q1 3:47
2ND & 11
OWN 11
+7
89.5%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to C.J. Davidson for 7 yds to the Clem 18Similar
Q1 2:49
3RD & 4
OWN 18
-9
89.3%
CLEMSON Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jay Guillermo) to the Clem 9Similar
Q1 2:20
3RD & 13
OWN 9
+14
89.2%
C.J. Davidson run for 14 yds to the Clem 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+33
88.7%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Mike Williams for 33 yds to the FlaSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
87.9%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Adam Humphries for 2 yds to the FlaSt 42Similar
Q1 0:45
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+24
87.8%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Germone Hopper for 24 yds to the FlaSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:12
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
87.3%
Deshaun Watson pass incomplete to Charone PeakeSimilar
Q1 0:05
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+5
87.3%
Deshaun Watson run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 13Similar
Q2 14:56
3RD & 5
OPP 13
0
87.5%
Deshaun Watson pass incomplete to Jordan LeggettSimilar
Q2 14:52
4TH & 5
OPP 13
+30
86.3%
Ammon Lakip 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 2:0287% → 86%
Q2 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
87.3%
Karlos Williams run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 31Similar
Q2 14:05
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+1
87.1%
Karlos Williams run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 32Similar
Q2 13:25
3RD & 7
OWN 32
-11
86.7%
Sean Maguire sacked by Vic Beasley for a loss of 11 yards to the FlaSt 21Similar
Q2 12:38
4TH & 18
OWN 21
0
85.9%
Cason Beatty punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Adam Humphries at the Clem 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 9PUNT
9 plays · 36 yds · 2:4214% → 16%
Q2 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
85.7%
Adam Choice run for 3 yds to the Clem 32Similar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 7
OWN 32
-1
85.3%
Adam Choice run for a loss of 1 yard to the Clem 31Similar
Q2 11:28
3RD & 8
OWN 31
+18
85.5%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Adam Humphries for 18 yds to the Clem 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
84.2%
C.J. Davidson run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 46Similar
Q2 10:45
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+10
83.8%
C.J. Davidson run for 10 yds to the FlaSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
83.5%
C.J. Davidson run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 35Similar
Q2 10:00
2ND & 9
OPP 35
0
83.0%
Deshaun Watson pass incomplete to Jay Jay McCulloughSimilar
Q2 9:54
3RD & 9
OPP 35
0
83.2%
Deshaun Watson pass incomplete to Adam HumphriesSimilar
Q2 9:48
4TH & 9
OPP 35
0
84.2%
Bradley Pinion punt for 26 yds, fair catch by Rashad Greene at the FlaSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:5085% → 84%
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-1
85.4%
Mario Pender run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 8Similar
Q2 9:05
2ND & 11
OWN 8
0
85.1%
Sean Maguire pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:55
3RD & 11
OWN 8
-2
84.6%
Sean Maguire run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 11 FLORIDA ST Penalty, Illegal Forward Pass (Sean Maguire) to the FlaSt 6Similar
Q2 8:50
4TH & 13
OWN 6
0
84.3%
Cason Beatty punt for 41 yds , Adam Humphries returns for no gain to the FlaSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 11TD
6 plays · 47 yds · 2:4918% → 28%
Q2 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
82.3%
Deshaun Watson run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 45Similar
Q2 8:08
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+28
81.5%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Germone Hopper for 28 yds to the FlaSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
80.3%
C.J. Davidson run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 14Similar
Q2 7:05
2ND & 7
OPP 14
+1
79.9%
Deshaun Watson run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 13Similar
Q2 6:27
3RD & 6
OPP 13
+12
80.0%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Jordan Leggett for 12 yds to the FlaSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
72.2%
D.J. Howard run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ammon Lakip KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 1:3776% → 73%
Q2 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+19
75.8%
Sean Maguire pass complete to Nick O'Leary for 19 yds to the FlaSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
76.7%
Karlos Williams run for no gain to the FlaSt 48Similar
Q2 4:40
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
76.0%
Sean Maguire pass incomplete to Karlos WilliamsSimilar
Q2 4:35
3RD & 10
OWN 48
-7
74.9%
Sean Maguire sacked by Martin Jenkins for a loss of 7 yards to the FlaSt 41Similar
Q2 4:05
4TH & 17
OWN 41
0
73.2%
Cason Beatty punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Adam Humphries at the Clem 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:5426% → 29%
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+8
73.7%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Wayne Gallman for 8 yds to the Clem 24Similar
Q2 3:30
2ND & 2
OWN 24
+1
72.2%
Wayne Gallman run for 1 yd to the Clem 25Similar
Q2 2:55
3RD & 1
OWN 25
0
70.9%
Deshaun Watson run for no gain to the Clem 25Similar
Q2 2:06
4TH & 1
OWN 25
+28
70.8%
Bradley Pinion punt for 41 yds , Rashad Greene returns for 28 yds to the Clem 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 1:1574% → 69%
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-6
73.7%
Sean Maguire sacked by Vic Beasley for a loss of 6 yards to the Clem 44Similar
Q2 1:35
2ND & 16
OPP 44
+4
72.1%
Sean Maguire pass complete to Rashad Greene for 4 yds to the Clem 40Similar
Q2 1:12
3RD & 12
OPP 40
-5
71.3%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (Josue Matias) to the Clem 45Similar
Q2 0:54
3RD & 17
OPP 45
0
70.5%
Sean Maguire pass incomplete to Karlos WilliamsSimilar
Q2 0:45
4TH & 17
OPP 45
0
69.2%
Cason Beatty punt for 41 yds, downed at the Clem 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 15END OF HALF
1 play · 3 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+3
69.4%
C.J. Davidson run for 3 yds to the Clem 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 16TD
12 plays · 68 yds · 3:4568% → 81%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+10
68.4%
Sean Maguire pass complete to Nick O'Leary for 10 yds to the FlaSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+8
69.4%
Sean Maguire pass complete to Rashad Greene for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 13:54
2ND & 2
50
-5
69.9%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (Bobby Hart) to the FlaSt 45Similar
Q3 13:28
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+22
69.6%
Sean Maguire pass complete to Nick O'Leary for 7 yds to the FLORIDAST 48 for a 1ST down CLEMSON Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (DeShawn Williams) to the Clem 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-1
70.2%
Mario Pender run for a loss of 1 yard to the Clem 34Similar
Q3 12:24
2ND & 11
OPP 34
+12
69.1%
Sean Maguire pass complete to Rashad Greene for 12 yds to the Clem 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
68.9%
Sean Maguire pass complete to Jesus Wilson for 1 yd to the Clem 21Similar
Q3 11:29
2ND & 9
OPP 21
0
68.4%
Sean Maguire pass incomplete to Rashad GreeneSimilar
Q3 11:29
3RD & 9
OPP 21
+5
66.7%
CLEMSON Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the Clem 16Similar
Q3 11:23
3RD & 4
OPP 16
+15
66.7%
Sean Maguire pass complete to Nick O'Leary for 15 yds to the Clem 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
80.5%
Mario Pender run for 1 yd for a TD, (Roberto Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 2:1525% → 27%
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
74.8%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Artavis Scott for 2 yds to the Clem 27Similar
Q3 10:15
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+10
74.1%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Jay Jay McCullough for 10 yds to the Clem 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-2
73.3%
Deshaun Watson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Clem 35Similar
Q3 9:26
2ND & 12
OWN 35
+8
74.0%
Deshaun Watson run for 8 yds to the Clem 43Similar
Q3 8:52
3RD & 4
OWN 43
0
71.2%
Deshaun Watson pass incomplete to Jay Jay McCulloughSimilar
Q3 8:45
4TH & 4
OWN 43
0
73.5%
Bradley Pinion punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Rashad Greene at the FlaSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 2:2076% → 72%
Q3 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
75.8%
Sean Maguire pass complete to Rashad Greene for 6 yds to the FlaSt 31Similar
Q3 8:12
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+7
76.8%
Mario Pender run for 7 yds to the FlaSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-11
76.4%
Sean Maguire sacked by Stephone Anthony for a loss of 11 yards to the FlaSt 27Similar
Q3 7:05
2ND & 21
OWN 27
+5
74.4%
Mario Pender run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 32Similar
Q3 6:28
3RD & 16
OWN 32
0
72.8%
Sean Maguire pass incomplete to Nick O'LearySimilar
Q3 6:20
4TH & 16
OWN 32
0
72.2%
Cason Beatty punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Clem 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 19MISSED FG
15 plays · 50 yds · 6:1929% → 34%
Q3 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
71.2%
Adam Choice run for 2 yds to the Clem 29Similar
Q3 5:45
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+6
70.7%
Deshaun Watson run for 6 yds to the Clem 35Similar
Q3 5:06
3RD & 2
OWN 35
+13
69.5%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Adam Choice for 13 yds to the Clem 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
66.3%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Adam Choice for 6 yds to the FlaSt 46Similar
Q3 4:02
2ND & 4
OPP 46
+14
65.0%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Adam Choice for 14 yds to the FlaSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:46
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
63.9%
Deshaun Watson run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 31Similar
Q3 3:10
2ND & 9
OPP 31
+8
63.4%
C.J. Davidson run for 8 yds to the FlaSt 23Similar
Q3 2:42
3RD & 1
OPP 23
+3
64.0%
C.J. Davidson run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:08
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+19
61.8%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Stanton Seckinger for 19 yds to the FlaSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
61.6%
C.J. Davidson run for no gain to the FlaSt 1Similar
Q3 1:22
2ND & 0
OPP 1
0
60.0%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (Eddie Goldman) to the FlaSt 1Similar
Q3 0:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-23
60.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 23 yards to the FlaSt 24Similar
Q3 0:15
3RD & 0
OPP 24
+1
62.8%
C.J. Davidson run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 23Similar
Q4 14:56
4TH & 0
OPP 23
+40
66.3%
Ammon Lakip 40 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 20INT
7 plays · 30 yds · 1:3472% → 75%
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
72.0%
Mario Pender run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 27Similar
Q4 14:15
2ND & 6
OWN 27
0
72.1%
Sean Maguire pass incomplete to Rashad GreeneSimilar
Q4 14:10
3RD & 6
OWN 27
+21
70.6%
Sean Maguire pass complete to Nick O'Leary for 21 yds to the FlaSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
74.5%
Sean Maguire pass complete to Jesus Wilson for 5 yds to the Clem 47Similar
Q4 13:47
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+4
75.3%
Sean Maguire pass intercepted Jayron Kearse return for 4 yds to the Clem 36Similar
Q4 13:16
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+4
75.1%
Sean Maguire pass intercepted Jayron Kearse return for 4 yds to the Clem 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 21TD
4 plays · 64 yds · 1:2635% → 68%
Q4 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+21
64.8%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Charone Peake for 6 yds to the FlaSt 42 for a 1ST down FLORIDA ST Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle (15 Yards) to the FlaSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
60.6%
Wayne Gallman run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 41Similar
Q4 12:22
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+39
60.1%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Mike Williams for 39 yds to the FlaSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
31.8%
Deshaun Watson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Bradley Pinion KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 22PUNT
12 plays · 22 yds · 2:3542% → 35%
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
41.8%
Sean Maguire pass complete to Rashad Greene for 3 yds to the FlaSt 28Similar
Q4 10:57
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+8
41.9%
Sean Maguire pass complete to Rashad Greene for 8 yds to the FlaSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
39.6%
Sean Maguire pass complete to Christian Green for 9 yds to the FlaSt 45Similar
Q4 10:22
2ND & 1
OWN 45
0
42.7%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, Illegal Touching ( Yards) to the FlaSt 45Similar
Q4 10:15
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+4
41.7%
Karlos Williams run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
41.9%
Sean Maguire pass incomplete to Nick O'LearySimilar
Q4 9:35
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+4
41.1%
Sean Maguire pass complete to Rashad Greene for 4 yds to the Clem 47Similar
Q4 9:09
3RD & 6
OPP 47
-6
41.9%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (Bobby Hart) to the FlaSt 47Similar
Q4 9:02
3RD & 11
OWN 48
0
37.7%
Sean Maguire pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:02
3RD & 12
OWN 47
0
37.4%
Sean Maguire pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:55
4TH & 12
OWN 47
0
35.4%
Cason Beatty punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Adam Humphries at the Clem 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2571% → 71%
Q4 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+4
29.0%
Adam Choice run for 4 yds to the Clem 18Similar
Q4 8:20
2ND & 6
OWN 18
+1
28.1%
Adam Choice run for 1 yd to the Clem 19Similar
Q4 7:37
3RD & 5
OWN 19
0
28.2%
Deshaun Watson pass incomplete to Stanton SeckingerSimilar
Q4 7:25
4TH & 5
OWN 19
0
29.5%
Bradley Pinion punt for 57 yds, downed at the FlaSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 24TD
3 plays · 76 yds · 1:1533% → 64%
Q4 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+16
32.6%
Sean Maguire pass complete to Rashad Greene for 16 yds to the FlaSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-14
32.9%
Sean Maguire sacked by Corey Crawford for a loss of 14 yards to the FlaSt 26Similar
Q4 6:04
2ND & 24
OWN 26
+74
64.4%
Sean Maguire pass complete to Rashad Greene for 74 yds for a TD, (Roberto Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 25PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 1:4441% → 40%
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-5
58.8%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Wayne Gallman for a loss of 5 yards to the Clem 12Similar
Q4 5:15
2ND & 15
OWN 12
+17
59.0%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Charone Peake for 17 yds to the Clem 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
57.0%
Deshaun Watson run for 3 yds to the Clem 32Similar
Q4 4:27
2ND & 7
OWN 32
0
55.9%
Deshaun Watson pass incomplete to Mike WilliamsSimilar
Q4 4:24
3RD & 7
OWN 32
0
57.9%
Deshaun Watson pass incomplete to Wayne GallmanSimilar
Q4 4:11
4TH & 7
OWN 32
0
59.7%
Bradley Pinion punt for 56 yds, downed at the FlaSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 26INT
4 plays · 13 yds · 1:5163% → 59%
Q4 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+13
63.1%
Karlos Williams run for 13 yds to the FlaSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
63.2%
Mario Pender run for a loss of 3 yards to the FlaSt 22Similar
Q4 3:05
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+3
61.7%
Dalvin Cook run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 25Similar
Q4 2:14
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+24
59.2%
Sean Maguire pass intercepted Jadar Johnson return for 24 yds to the FlaSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 27FUMBLE
2 plays · 12 yds · 0:3354% → 57%
Q4 2:09
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+8
45.7%
Deshaun Watson run for 8 yds to the FlaSt 18Similar
Q4 1:36
2ND & 2
OPP 18
+4
42.8%
C.J. Davidson run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 14 C.J. Davidson fumbled, forced by Eddie Goldman, recovered by FlaSt Nate AndrewsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 28END OF GAME
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:2059% → 56%
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+4
59.2%
Karlos Williams run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 18Similar
Q4 0:50
2ND & 6
OWN 18
0
58.5%
Karlos Williams run for no gain to the FlaSt 18Similar
Q4 0:10
3RD & 6
OWN 18
-2
55.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 29DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0060% → 52%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
40.5%
Deshaun Watson pass incompleteSimilar
OT 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
-4
41.1%
Deshaun Watson sacked by Eddie Goldman for a loss of 4 yards to the FlaSt 29Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 14
OPP 29
+13
47.4%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Adam Choice for 13 yds to the FlaSt 16Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & 1
OPP 16
0
47.8%
Adam Choice run for no gain to the FlaSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 30TD
2 plays · 25 yds · 0:0065% → 86%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+13
64.7%
Karlos Williams run for 13 yds to the Clem 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
85.9%
Karlos Williams run for 12 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 6:04
Sean Maguire pass complete to Rashad Greene for 74 yds for a TD, (Roberto Aguayo KICK)
+31.4
TD · Q4 11:44
Deshaun Watson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Bradley Pinion KICK)
-28.4
TD · OT 0:00
Karlos Williams run for 12 yds for a TD
+21.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com