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LOU

Louisville 38 at Boston College 19

BC
2014 · Week 11 · Nov 8, 2014 · Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)
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Win probability · BC
modelBC aheadLOU aheadconfidence bandkey playBC scoreLOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameTD-4.1BC 1.2%Reggie Bonnafon 36 Yd Run (JohnWallace Kick)AWAY 38 - HOME 19 · Q4 4:47
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 4:47 · Reggie Bonnafon 36 Yd Run (John Wallace Kick)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+51.0+25.50−25.5−51.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 151Home team on offense−48.3Pregame prior−0.7Score differential−25.2Garbage-time factor−10.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−9.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−9.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:06: Brandon Radcliff 5 Yd Run (John Wallace Kick) — LOU win probability +11.5 pts (now 54%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:15: DeVante Parker 29 Yd pass from Reggie Bonnafon (John Wallace Kick) — LOU win probability +12.8 pts (now 64%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 7:14: Eli Rogers 12 Yd pass from Reggie Bonnafon (John Wallace Kick) — LOU win probability +12.7 pts (now 78%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 3:30: Bobby Wolford 3 Yd pass from Tyler Murphy (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — BC win probability +15.8 pts (now 43%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  5. TD · Q4 12:08: Brandon Radcliff 11 Yd Run (John Wallace Kick) — LOU win probability +14.3 pts (now 89%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BC made the numbers' call on 5 of 6LOU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 12:45LOU 4th & 6 at BC 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.6%−<0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.6%
    91% to make
    Punt
    54.1%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:06BC 4th & 3 at LOU 37, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 46.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    46.3%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    46.0%−0.2
    40% to make
    Punt
    46.0%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:20BC 4th & 6 at BC 6, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.1%−0.5
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:21LOU 4th & 12 at BC 41, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.0%−0.2
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    49.1%−0.2
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    49.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:14LOU 4th & 1 at BC 1, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.7%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    37.3%−2.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    31.2%−8.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:26BC 4th & 20 at BC 20, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.7%−2.9
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:49LOU 4th & 1 at LOU 41, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.1 ptsPunted · 45.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.9%−2.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:38BC 4th & 10 at BC 29, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.9%−2.0
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.8%
    average punt
  9. Q3 1:14LOU 4th & 11 at LOU 24, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.3%−4.4
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.7%
    average punt
  10. Q4 8:16BC 4th & 2 at LOU 2, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    14.5%−2.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    7.1%−9.8
    average punt
  11. Q4 5:56LOU 4th & 7 at LOU 16, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.9%−1.6
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.5%
    average punt
  12. Q4 1:29BC 4th & 10 at LOU 36, down 19
    Close callWent for it · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.4%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    1.5%
    42% to make
    Punt
    1.0%−0.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BC made the numbers' call on 2 of 3LOU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 7:14BC Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:07BC Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    57.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:06LOU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:15LOU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 7:14LOU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 3:30BC Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    38.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    37.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 12:08LOU Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 4:47LOU Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.7%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BCDrive 1INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q1 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
41.2%
Tyler Murphy pass intercepted Gerod Holliman return for 2 yds to the BC 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 2FG
7 plays · 36 yds · 1:3959% → 59%
Q1 14:24
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+22
41.2%
Will Gardner pass complete to Eli Rogers for 22 yds to the BC 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:04
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+13
41.3%
Michael Dyer run for 13 yds to the BC 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
41.3%
Will Gardner pass incomplete to DeVante ParkerSimilar
Q1 13:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
41.4%
Brandon Radcliff run for 6 yds to the BC 1Similar
Q1 12:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
41.5%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the BC 6Similar
Q1 12:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
41.5%
Will Gardner pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:45
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
41.5%
John Wallace 23 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 3TD
13 plays · 64 yds · 4:5542% → 46%
Q1 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
41.8%
Jon Hilliman run for 5 yds to the BC 41Similar
Q1 11:40
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+5
42.2%
Jon Hilliman run for 5 yds to the BC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
42.3%
Marcus Outlow run for 2 yds to the BC 48Similar
Q1 10:31
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+8
42.6%
Myles Willis run for 8 yds to the Lvile 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
42.8%
Tyler Murphy run for 6 yds to the Lvile 38Similar
Q1 9:55
2ND & 4
OPP 38
0
42.8%
Tyler Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:33
3RD & 4
OPP 38
+1
42.9%
Marcus Outlow run for 1 yd to the Lvile 37Similar
Q1 9:06
4TH & 3
OPP 37
+8
42.7%
Tyler Murphy pass complete to Dan Crimmins for 8 yds to the Lvile 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+8
43.5%
Jon Hilliman run for 8 yds to the Lvile 21Similar
Q1 7:58
2ND & 2
OPP 21
+1
43.7%
Jon Hilliman run for 1 yd to the Lvile 20Similar
Q1 7:33
3RD & 1
OPP 20
+19
43.4%
Tyler Murphy pass complete to Bobby Wolford for 19 yds to the Lvile 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
45.5%
Jon Hilliman 1 Yd Run (Joey Launceford Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 4FUMBLE
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:4355% → 56%
Q1 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
45.0%
Will Gardner pass complete to L.J. Scott for 2 yds to the Lvile 25Similar
Q1 6:25
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+16
45.1%
BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (16 Yards) to the Lvile 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
44.4%
Will Gardner pass incomplete to Kai De La CruzSimilar
Q1 5:44
2ND & 10
OWN 41
-3
44.8%
Reggie Bonnafon run for a loss of 3 yards to the Lvile 38Similar
Q1 5:32
3RD & 13
OWN 38
+21
45.5%
Will Gardner pass complete to Brandon Radcliff for 21 yds to the BC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+29
44.7%
Will Gardner pass complete to DeVante Parker for 16 yds to the BC 25 for a 1ST down BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle (13 Yards) to the BC 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:37
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+8
44.3%
Brandon Radcliff run for 8 yds to the BC 4Similar
Q1 4:09
2ND & 2
OPP 4
+2
44.4%
Brandon Radcliff run for 2 yds to the BC 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
44.5%
Brandon Radcliff run for no gain to the BC 2 Brandon Radcliff fumbled, recovered by BC Steven DanielsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:0746% → 45%
Q1 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 2
-1
46.1%
Jon Hilliman run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 1Similar
Q1 3:05
2ND & 11
OWN 1
+5
46.2%
Jon Hilliman run for 5 yds to the BC 6Similar
Q1 2:32
3RD & 6
OWN 6
0
45.6%
Tyler Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:20
4TH & 6
OWN 6
+8
45.4%
Alex Howell punt for 53 yds , Eli Rogers returns for 8 yds to the Lvile 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 1:3955% → 53%
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+12
45.3%
Will Gardner pass complete to Gerald Christian for 12 yds to the BC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
45.4%
Michael Dyer run for no gain to the BC 39Similar
Q1 0:58
2ND & 10
OPP 39
-10
45.5%
Gardner, Will pass incomplete, PENALTY LOUISVILLE holding 10 yards to the BOSTCOLL49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:35
2ND & 20
OPP 49
+8
46.5%
Will Gardner pass complete to DeVante Parker for 8 yds to the BC 41Similar
Q1 0:29
3RD & 12
OPP 41
0
46.0%
Will Gardner pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:21
4TH & 12
OPP 41
+12
47.3%
Ryan Johnson punt for 27 yds, fair catch by Sherman Alston at the BC 14 for a 1ST down LOUISVILLE Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (15 Yards) to the BC 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 7TD
4 plays · 71 yds · 0:5448% → 54%
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
47.6%
Jon Hilliman run for 6 yds to the BC 35Similar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+28
48.2%
Tyler Murphy run for 28 yds to the Lvile 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:27
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+36
49.3%
Sherman Alston run for 36 yds to the Lvile 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
53.7%
Jon Hilliman 1 Yd Run (Joey Launceford PAT failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 8DOWNS
12 plays · 84 yds · 5:3647% → 44%
Q2 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-1
53.2%
Michael Dyer run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 14Similar
Q2 13:16
2ND & 11
OWN 14
+25
53.9%
Will Gardner pass complete to DeVante Parker for 25 yds to the Lvile 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
52.8%
Will Gardner pass complete to DeVante Parker for 9 yds to the Lvile 48Similar
Q2 11:57
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+16
52.2%
Michael Dyer run for 16 yds to the BC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-1
52.5%
Michael Dyer run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 37Similar
Q2 10:59
2ND & 11
OPP 37
+8
53.1%
Michael Dyer run for 8 yds to the BC 29Similar
Q2 10:23
3RD & 3
OPP 29
+23
53.0%
Will Gardner pass complete to Michaelee Harris for 23 yds to the BC 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
53.1%
Reggie Bonnafon run for no gain to the BC 6Similar
Q2 9:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-1
53.4%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 4 yds to the BC 2 LOUISVILLE Penalty, Illegal Forward Pass (Reggie Bonnafon) to the BC 7Similar
Q2 8:22
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
54.9%
Will Gardner pass complete to DeVante Parker for 6 yds to the BC 1Similar
Q2 8:14
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
56.2%
Michael Dyer run for no gain to the BC 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · -96 yds · 1:5542% → 41%
Q2 7:58
1ST & GOAL
OWN 1
+1
42.3%
Tyler Murphy run for 1 yd to the BC 2Similar
Q2 7:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-97
44.5%
BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, False Start (Louie Addazio) to the BC 1Similar
Q2 7:20
2ND & GOAL
OWN 1
0
42.1%
Jon Hilliman run for no gain to the BC 1Similar
Q2 6:30
3RD & GOAL
OWN 1
0
41.4%
Jon Hilliman run for no gain to the BC 1Similar
Q2 6:03
4TH & GOAL
OWN 1
+13
41.1%
Alex Howell punt for 56 yds , Eli Rogers returns for 13 yds to the BC 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 10TD
4 plays · 44 yds · 0:4043% → 54%
Q2 5:46
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
57.2%
Will Gardner run for 4 yds to the BC 40Similar
Q2 5:30
2ND & 6
OPP 40
0
56.9%
Will Gardner pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:12
3RD & 6
OPP 40
+35
57.9%
Will Gardner pass complete to DeVante Parker for 35 yds to the BC 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
46.4%
Brandon Radcliff 5 Yd Run (John Wallace Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 1:2152% → 50%
Q2 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
51.6%
Myles Willis run for 2 yds to the BC 32Similar
Q2 4:16
2ND & 8
OWN 32
0
51.8%
Tyler Murphy pass incomplete to Charlie CallinanSimilar
Q2 3:36
3RD & 8
OWN 32
-12
50.9%
Tyler Murphy sacked by Sheldon Rankins for a loss of 12 yards to the BC 20Similar
Q2 3:26
4TH & 20
OWN 20
-2
49.6%
Alex Howell punt for 46 yds , Eli Rogers returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:1450% → 48%
Q2 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
50.5%
Will Gardner pass complete to Kai De La Cruz for 4 yds to the Lvile 36Similar
Q2 2:50
2ND & 6
OWN 36
0
49.8%
Will Gardner pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:40
3RD & 6
OWN 36
+5
51.0%
Will Gardner pass complete to Kai De La Cruz for 5 yds to the Lvile 41Similar
Q2 1:49
4TH & 1
OWN 41
0
52.0%
Ryan Johnson punt for 40 yds, downed at the BC 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 13PUNT
11 plays · 9 yds · 1:1153% → 52%
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-5
52.5%
BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the BC 14Similar
Q2 1:30
1ST & 15
OWN 14
+7
52.4%
Jon Hilliman run for 7 yds to the BC 21Similar
Q2 1:17
2ND & 8
OWN 21
-10
52.5%
BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, Offensive Holding (Aaron Kramer) to the BC 11Similar
Q2 1:11
2ND & 18
OWN 11
+3
52.4%
Tyler Murphy run for 3 yds to the BC 14Similar
Q2 1:05
3RD & 15
OWN 14
+14
52.9%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Terell Floyd) to the BC 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-2
54.5%
Tyler Murphy sacked by Sheldon Rankins and Dominique Brown for a loss of 2 yards to the BC 27Similar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 12
OWN 27
+2
54.2%
Tyler Murphy run for 2 yds to the BC 29Similar
Q2 0:44
3RD & 10
OWN 29
0
53.3%
Tyler Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:38
4TH & 10
OWN 29
+10
52.3%
TEAM punt blocked by Stacy Thomas, Stacy Thomas return for 10 yds to the BC 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 14TD
2 plays · 19 yds · 0:0551% → 64%
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-10
49.0%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the BC 29Similar
Q2 0:15
1ST & 20
OPP 29
+29
36.2%
DeVante Parker 29 Yd pass from Reggie Bonnafon (John Wallace Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 15END OF HALF
3 plays · 14 yds · 0:1440% → 42%
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
40.0%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the BC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
42.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 16TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 7:1460% → 78%
Q3 14:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
40.4%
Reggie Bonnafon run for no gain to the Lvile 25Similar
Q3 14:07
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
40.6%
Michael Dyer run for 2 yds to the Lvile 27Similar
Q3 13:27
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+16
41.6%
Reggie Bonnafon pass complete to DeVante Parker for 16 yds to the Lvile 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
38.4%
Michael Dyer run for 9 yds to the BC 48Similar
Q3 12:10
2ND & 1
OPP 48
0
37.8%
Michael Dyer run for no gain to the BC 48Similar
Q3 11:30
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+3
38.0%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 3 yds to the BC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:46
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
37.6%
Reggie Bonnafon run for no gain to the BC 45Similar
Q3 10:30
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
37.6%
Reggie Bonnafon pass incomplete to Gerald ChristianSimilar
Q3 10:00
3RD & 10
OPP 45
+13
39.0%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 13 yds to the BC 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:33
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-1
36.5%
Michael Dyer run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 33Similar
Q3 9:03
2ND & 11
OPP 33
+12
36.6%
Reggie Bonnafon pass complete to Eli Rogers for 12 yds to the BC 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+11
36.1%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 11 yds to the BC 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-2
34.3%
Brandon Radcliff run for a loss of 2 yards to the BC 12Similar
Q3 7:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+12
21.6%
Eli Rogers 12 Yd pass from Reggie Bonnafon (John Wallace Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 17TD
8 plays · 71 yds · 3:1225% → 43%
Q3 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
24.9%
Myles Willis run for 4 yds to the BC 33Similar
Q3 6:15
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+1
25.0%
Jon Hilliman run for 1 yd to the BC 34Similar
Q3 5:20
3RD & 5
OWN 34
+20
23.7%
Tyler Murphy pass complete to Sherman Alston for 20 yds to the Lvile 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
26.5%
Jon Hilliman run for 1 yd to the Lvile 45Similar
Q3 4:14
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+44
25.3%
Tyler Murphy pass complete to Jarrett Darmstatter for 42 yds to the Lvile 3 for a 1ST down LOUISVILLE Penalty, Personal Foul (2 Yards) to the Lvile 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
26.8%
Jon Hilliman run for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 3Similar
Q3 3:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
42.6%
Bobby Wolford 3 Yd pass from Tyler Murphy (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 2:1666% → 65%
Q3 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
34.0%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Lvile 20Similar
Q3 2:51
1ST & 15
OWN 20
-3
34.1%
Reggie Bonnafon sacked by Kevin Kavalec for a loss of 3 yards to the Lvile 17Similar
Q3 2:20
2ND & 18
OWN 17
-3
34.4%
Michael Dyer run for a loss of 3 yards to the Lvile 14Similar
Q3 1:54
3RD & 21
OWN 14
+10
34.2%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 10 yds to the Lvile 24Similar
Q3 1:14
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
35.2%
Ryan Johnson punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Sherman Alston at the BC 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 19INT
6 plays · 11 yds · 2:4337% → 36%
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
37.4%
Jon Hilliman run for 5 yds to the BC 44Similar
Q3 0:11
2ND & 5
OWN 44
-5
38.7%
Tyler Murphy run for a loss of 5 yards to the BC 39Similar
Q4 14:51
3RD & 10
OWN 39
+12
34.6%
Tyler Murphy run for 12 yds to the Lvile 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
39.6%
Marcus Outlow run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 13:43
2ND & 11
50
0
37.3%
Tyler Murphy run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 13:17
3RD & 11
50
+37
35.9%
Tyler Murphy pass intercepted Gerod Holliman return for 38 yds to the BC 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 20TD
3 plays · 27 yds · 0:4474% → 89%
Q4 12:52
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+12
25.7%
Brandon Radcliff run for 12 yds to the BC 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:38
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
25.6%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 4 yds to the BC 11Similar
Q4 12:08
2ND & 6
OPP 11
+11
11.3%
Brandon Radcliff 11 Yd Run (John Wallace Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 21INT
10 plays · 73 yds · 3:2816% → 15%
Q4 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
16.4%
Marcus Outlow run for 2 yds to the BC 27Similar
Q4 11:23
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
16.2%
Sherman Alston run for 7 yds to the BC 34Similar
Q4 10:55
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+5
16.4%
Tyler Murphy run for 5 yds to the BC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+55
14.8%
Tyler Murphy pass complete to Dan Crimmins for 55 yds to the Lvile 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
16.8%
Tyler Murphy run for 3 yds to the Lvile 3Similar
Q4 9:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
16.7%
Tyler Murphy pass complete to Marcus Outlow for 2 yds to the Lvile 1Similar
Q4 8:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
15.4%
Jon Hilliman run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 2Similar
Q4 8:16
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+5
14.6%
Tyler Murphy pass intercepted Sheldon Rankins return for 5 yds to the Lvile 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:5691% → 94%
Q4 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
8.8%
Brandon Radcliff run for no gain to the Lvile 13Similar
Q4 7:34
2ND & 10
OWN 13
-5
7.9%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, False Start (Jake Smith) to the Lvile 8Similar
Q4 7:03
2ND & 15
OWN 8
+1
7.2%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 1 yd to the Lvile 9Similar
Q4 6:31
3RD & 14
OWN 9
+7
7.1%
Brandon Radcliff run for 7 yds to the Lvile 16Similar
Q4 5:56
4TH & 7
OWN 16
0
6.5%
Ryan Johnson punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Sherman Alston at the BC 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 23INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q4 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+13
8.7%
Tyler Murphy pass intercepted Gerod Holliman return for 13 yds to the BC 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 24TD
2 plays · 37 yds · 0:4895% → 99%
Q4 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
5.4%
Brandon Radcliff run for 1 yd to the BC 36Similar
Q4 4:47
2ND & 9
OPP 36
+36
1.2%
Reggie Bonnafon 36 Yd Run (John Wallace Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 25DOWNS
10 plays · 40 yds · 2:392% → 2%
Q4 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+10
2.3%
Tyler Rouse run for 10 yds to the BC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+12
2.3%
Darius Wade pass complete to Josh Bordner for 12 yds to the Lvile 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:11
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
2.4%
Tyler Rouse run for 1 yd to the Lvile 48Similar
Q4 2:27
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+7
2.3%
Darius Wade run for 7 yds to the Lvile 41Similar
Q4 1:54
3RD & 2
OPP 41
+5
2.1%
Darius Wade pass complete to Gabriel McClary for 5 yds to the Lvile 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
1.9%
Darius Wade pass incomplete to Thaddius SmithSimilar
Q4 1:40
2ND & 10
OPP 36
0
1.9%
Darius Wade pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:35
3RD & 10
OPP 36
0
1.9%
Darius Wade pass incomplete to Nat DixonSimilar
Q4 1:29
4TH & 10
OPP 36
+5
1.8%
Darius Wade run for 5 yds to the Lvile 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 26END OF GAME
3 plays · -6 yds · 1:1199% → 99%
Q4 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-2
0.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 29Similar
Q4 0:27
2ND & 12
OWN 29
-2
0.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 27Similar
Q4 0:01
3RD & 14
OWN 27
-2
0.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:30
Bobby Wolford 3 Yd pass from Tyler Murphy (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
+15.8
TD · Q4 12:08
Brandon Radcliff 11 Yd Run (John Wallace Kick)
-14.3
TD · Q2 0:15
DeVante Parker 29 Yd pass from Reggie Bonnafon (John Wallace Kick)
-12.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com