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BC

Boston College 33 at Virginia Tech 31

VT
2014 · Week 10 · Nov 1, 2014 · Lane Stadium
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Win probability · VT
modelVT aheadBC aheadconfidence bandkey playVT scoreBC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDFGTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:26 · TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 43
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+33.0+16.50−16.5−33.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q4 11:51: Michael Brewer run for 1 yd for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK) — VT win probability +18.9 pts (now 41%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 7:12: Michael Brewer pass complete to Bucky Hodges for 7 yds for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK) — VT win probability +32.0 pts (now 70%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 4:12: Alex Howell 44 yd FG GOOD — BC win probability +25.4 pts (now 71%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 2:59: Tyler Murphy run for 57 yds for a TD, (Joey Launceford KICK) — BC win probability +18.2 pts (now 92%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:28: Michael Brewer pass complete to Ryan Malleck for 5 yds for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK) — VT win probability +30.8 pts (now 35%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
VT made the numbers' call on 10 of 13BC made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 8:57BC 4th & 9 at VT 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.8%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    32.7%−0.2
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    32.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:45VT 4th & 13 at VT 2, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.4%−0.6
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:58BC 4th & 16 at VT 41, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.9%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    32.0%−0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    32.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:33VT 4th & 8 at VT 3, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.9%−0.7
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:45VT 4th & 8 at BC 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 64.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.2%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.5%
    88% to make
    Punt
    62.1%−2.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:41BC 4th & 8 at BC 17, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.4%−0.8
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:25VT 4th & 1 at BC 37, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    63.8%−1.8
    40% to make
    Punt
    63.8%−1.8
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:16VT 4th & 8 at VT 21, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.9%−1.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.5%
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:49BC 4th & 1 at VT 27, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    42.0%−1.7
    62% to make
    Punt
    37.7%−6.0
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:59VT 4th & 1 at VT 36, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsPunted · 55.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.8%−1.8
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:47BC 4th & 6 at BC 8, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.9%−2.7
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.6%
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:24BC 4th & 12 at VT 42, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.5%−1.2
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    46.5%−1.2
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    47.7%
    average punt
  13. Q3 10:32VT 4th & 8 at VT 3, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.7%−3.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.8%
    average punt
  14. Q3 5:36BC 4th & 2 at VT 2, up 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.6 ptsKicked a field goal · 67.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.2%−2.6
    94% to make
    Punt
    54.0%−13.9
    average punt
  15. Q3 2:53VT 4th & 11 at VT 37, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.2%−1.3
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.4%
    average punt
  16. Q3 2:42BC 4th & 1 at BC 46, up 13
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.9 ptsPunted · 81.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.0%−2.9
    average punt
  17. Q4 14:55VT 4th & 9 at VT 34, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.1%−1.2
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.4%
    average punt
  18. Q4 11:51VT 4th & 1 at BC 1, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.9%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    19.4%−2.5
    94% to make
    Punt
    11.6%−10.3
    average punt
  19. Q4 10:28BC 4th & 17 at BC 27, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.6%−4.5
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.2%
    average punt
  20. Q4 8:27VT 4th & 5 at BC 24, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.1%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    35.0%−0.2
    68% to make
    Punt
    23.1%−12.0
    average punt
  21. Q4 4:12BC 4th & 2 at VT 27, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 42.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.0%−2.9
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.9%
    62% to make
    Punt
    27.4%−17.5
    average punt
  22. Q4 3:27VT 4th & 5 at VT 30, down 2
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.4 ptsPunted · 39.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.7%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.3%−2.4
    average punt
  23. Q4 0:41VT 4th & 2 at BC 10, down 9
    Close callWent for it · 8.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.6%−0.7
    55% to convert
    Field goal
    9.3%
    88% to make
    Punt
    5.2%−4.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
VT made the numbers' call on 3 of 4BC made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 11:51VT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:56BC Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:10BC Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 7:52BC Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    66.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 11:51VT Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.0%−0.4
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 7:12VT Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.9%−1.3
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 2:59BC Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.9%−1.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 0:28VT Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.8%−0.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.2%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
VTDrive 1TD
11 plays · 95 yds · 3:0470% → 70%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+5
69.6%
Marshawn Williams run for 5 yds to the VTech 10Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 5
OWN 10
+2
69.6%
Marshawn Williams run for 2 yds to the VTech 12Similar
Q1 14:55
3RD & 3
OWN 12
+13
69.6%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Sam Rogers for 13 yds to the VTech 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
69.6%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 4 yds to the VTech 29Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
69.6%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Isaiah Ford for no gain to the VTech 29Similar
Q1 14:55
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+15
69.6%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Joshua Stanford for 15 yds to the VTech 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+44
69.6%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Willie Byrn for 44 yds to the BC 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
69.6%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 4 yds to the BC 8Similar
Q1 11:51
2ND & 6
OPP 8
+8
70.4%
Marshawn Williams run for 8 yds for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 25 yds · 2:4830% → 30%
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
70.0%
Jon Hilliman run for 4 yds to the BC 35Similar
Q1 11:45
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+20
69.9%
Tyler Murphy run for 20 yds to the VTech 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
69.8%
Tyler Murphy run for no gain to the VTech 45Similar
Q1 11:45
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+1
69.8%
Jon Hilliman run for 1 yd to the VTech 44Similar
Q1 8:57
3RD & 9
OPP 44
0
70.1%
Tyler Murphy pass incomplete, broken up by Dadi NicolasSimilar
Q1 8:57
4TH & 9
OPP 44
0
70.4%
Alex Howell punt for 39 yds, downed at the VTech 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+1
70.2%
Marshawn Williams run for 1 yd to the VTech 6Similar
Q1 8:45
2ND & 9
OWN 6
+1
70.2%
Marshawn Williams run for 1 yd to the VTech 7Similar
Q1 8:45
3RD & 8
OWN 7
-5
70.0%
Michael Brewer sacked by Malachi Moore for a loss of 5 yards to the VTech 2Similar
Q1 8:45
4TH & 13
OWN 2
+6
69.8%
A.J. Hughes punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the VTech 35 , Sherman Alston returns for 6 yds to the VTech 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · -6 yds · 0:0030% → 29%
Q1 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-5
69.7%
BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, false start (Michael Giacone) to the VTech 40Similar
Q1 6:58
1ST & 15
OPP 40
-5
70.3%
BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, false start (Bobby Vardaro) to the VTech 45Similar
Q1 6:58
1ST & 20
OPP 45
+2
70.3%
Sherman Alston run for 2 yds to the VTech 43Similar
Q1 6:58
2ND & 18
OPP 43
0
70.4%
Tyler Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:58
3RD & 18
OPP 43
+2
70.7%
Tyler Murphy pass complete to Sherman Alston for 2 yds to the VTech 41Similar
Q1 6:58
4TH & 16
OPP 41
0
71.1%
Alex Howell punt for 40 yds, downed at the VTech 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0071% → 70%
Q1 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
70.7%
Marshawn Williams run for 1 yd to the VTech 2Similar
Q1 5:33
2ND & 9
OWN 2
+1
70.7%
Marshawn Williams run for 1 yd to the VTech 3Similar
Q1 5:33
3RD & 8
OWN 3
0
70.4%
Marshawn Williams run for no gain to the VTech 3Similar
Q1 5:33
4TH & 8
OWN 3
0
70.1%
A.J. Hughes punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Sherman Alston at the VTech 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 6TD
8 plays · 41 yds · 3:2930% → 36%
Q1 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-7
70.1%
Tyler Murphy sacked by Nigel Williams for a loss of 7 yards to the VTech 48Similar
Q1 3:25
2ND & 17
OPP 48
+24
70.9%
Tyler Murphy pass complete to Shakim Phillips for 24 yds to the VTech 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-10
69.5%
Tyler Murphy pass incomplete to Josh Bordner, QB hurry by Ken Ekanem, QB hurry by Dadi Nicolas, PENALTY BC holding (Andy Gallik) 10 yards to the VT34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:25
1ST & 20
OPP 34
+8
70.0%
Tyler Murphy run for 8 yds to the VTech 26Similar
Q1 3:25
2ND & 12
OPP 26
+11
69.6%
Tyler Murphy pass complete to David Dudeck for 11 yds to the VTech 15Similar
Q1 0:36
3RD & 1
OPP 15
+8
69.6%
Tyler Murphy run for 8 yds to the VTech 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-1
69.0%
Jon Hilliman run for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 8Similar
Q2 14:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
63.8%
Tyler Murphy pass complete to Charlie Callinan for 8 yds for a TD, (Joey Launceford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 7FG
9 plays · 36 yds · 2:0069% → 69%
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
68.6%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Cam Phillips for 5 yds to the BC 41Similar
Q2 14:30
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+5
68.6%
Sam Rogers run for 5 yds to the BC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+24
68.6%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Bucky Hodges for 24 yds to the BC 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:55
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+9
68.9%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Bucky Hodges for 9 yds to the BC 3Similar
Q2 13:55
2ND & 1
OPP 3
-2
68.9%
Sam Rogers run for a loss of 2 yards to the BC 5Similar
Q2 13:21
3RD & 3
OPP 5
-5
68.2%
Michael Brewer sacked by Connor Wujciak for a loss of 5 yards to the BC 10Similar
Q2 12:45
4TH & 8
OPP 10
+27
68.6%
Joey Slye 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0032% → 31%
Q2 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-3
67.9%
Jon Hilliman run for a loss of 3 yards to the BC 12Similar
Q2 12:41
2ND & 13
OWN 12
+1
68.1%
Tyler Murphy run for 1 yd to the BC 13Similar
Q2 12:41
3RD & 12
OWN 13
+4
68.6%
Tyler Murphy run for 4 yds to the BC 17Similar
Q2 12:41
4TH & 8
OWN 17
+3
69.1%
Alex Howell punt for 32 yds , Greg Stroman returns for 3 yds to the BC 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 9DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0070% → 69%
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
69.9%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Willie Byrn for 6 yds to the BC 40Similar
Q2 10:25
2ND & 4
OPP 40
+3
69.9%
Jerome Wright run for 3 yds to the BC 37Similar
Q2 10:25
3RD & 1
OPP 37
0
69.3%
Jerome Wright run for no gain to the BC 37Similar
Q2 10:25
4TH & 1
OPP 37
0
68.5%
Jerome Wright run for no gain to the BC 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 10TD
2 plays · 63 yds · 0:5334% → 40%
Q2 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
66.4%
Tyler Murphy sacked by Dadi Nicolas for a loss of 5 yards to the BC 32Similar
Q2 8:10
2ND & 15
OWN 32
+68
59.7%
Myles Willis run for 68 yds for a TD, (Joey Launceford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:4959% → 57%
Q2 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-4
59.1%
Joshua Stanford run for a loss of 4 yards to the VTech 15Similar
Q2 7:16
2ND & 14
OWN 15
0
58.3%
Michael Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:16
3RD & 14
OWN 15
+6
57.4%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Ryan Malleck for 6 yds to the VTech 21Similar
Q2 7:16
4TH & 8
OWN 21
-5
57.0%
A.J. Hughes punt for 49 yds , Sherman Alston returns for a loss of 5 yards to the BC 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 12DOWNS
7 plays · 48 yds · 0:3942% → 43%
Q2 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
58.4%
Myles Willis run for 2 yds to the BC 27Similar
Q2 5:49
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+37
57.9%
Tyler Murphy pass complete to Sherman Alston for 37 yds to the VTech 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:49
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
55.7%
Tyler Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:49
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+6
55.8%
Myles Willis run for 6 yds to the VTech 30Similar
Q2 5:49
3RD & 4
OPP 30
-1
55.5%
Tyler Murphy run for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 31Similar
Q2 5:49
4TH & 5
OPP 31
+4
57.4%
Tyler Murphy pass incomplete to Charlie Callinan, PENALTY VT offside defense (Dadi Nicolas) 4 yards to the VT27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:49
4TH & 1
OPP 27
0
56.7%
Jon Hilliman run for no gain to the VTech 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:4557% → 56%
Q2 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-5
57.1%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, delay of game (Michael Brewer) to the VTech 22Similar
Q2 3:44
1ST & 15
OWN 22
+3
56.6%
Marshawn Williams run for 3 yds to the VTech 25Similar
Q2 3:44
2ND & 12
OWN 25
0
56.5%
Michael Brewer pass incomplete to Isaiah Ford, broken up by Ty-Meer BrownSimilar
Q2 2:59
3RD & 12
OWN 25
+11
54.9%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Ryan Malleck for 11 yds to the VTech 36Similar
Q2 2:59
4TH & 1
OWN 36
0
56.1%
A.J. Hughes punt for 60 yds, downed at the BC 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:3944% → 43%
Q2 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+1
55.6%
Jon Hilliman run for 1 yd to the BC 5Similar
Q2 2:26
2ND & 9
OWN 5
+3
55.9%
Jon Hilliman run for 3 yds to the BC 8Similar
Q2 1:35
3RD & 6
OWN 8
0
56.7%
Tyler Murphy run for no gain to the BC 8Similar
Q2 0:47
4TH & 6
OWN 8
+35
57.5%
Alex Howell punt for 50 yds, Kyshoen Jarrett returns for 35 yds to the BC 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 15MISSED FG
5 plays · 10 yds · 0:2059% → 59%
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
58.8%
Michael Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:17
2ND & 10
OPP 23
0
58.6%
Michael Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:08
3RD & 10
OPP 23
+10
56.5%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 10 yds to the BC 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
58.7%
Team pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:03
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+30
58.6%
Joey Slye 30 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Truman GutapfelSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 16END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0046% → 46%
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
54.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 17PUNT
12 plays · 38 yds · 3:3045% → 45%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
55.1%
Marcus Outlow run for 4 yds to the BC 24Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+6
54.9%
Tyler Murphy run for 6 yds to the BC 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-4
54.7%
Tyler Murphy run for a loss of 4 yards to the BC 26Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 14
OWN 26
+16
55.6%
Sherman Alston run for 16 yds to the BC 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:48
2ND & 14
OWN 26
+16
54.7%
Sherman Alston run for 16 yds to the BC 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
51.8%
Tyler Murphy pass incomplete to Shakim PhillipsSimilar
Q3 12:33
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+18
52.4%
Tyler Murphy run for 3 yds to the VTech 45 for a 1ST down VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Derek Di Nardo) to the VTech 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:33
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-2
51.2%
Marcus Outlow run for a loss of 2 yards to the VTech 42Similar
Q3 12:33
2ND & 12
OPP 42
0
51.5%
Tyler Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:24
3RD & 12
OPP 42
0
52.0%
Tyler Murphy pass incomplete to Gabriel McClarySimilar
Q3 11:24
4TH & 12
OPP 42
0
54.7%
Alex Howell punt for 41 yds, downed at the VTech 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:4054% → 51%
Q3 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
53.9%
Marshawn Williams run for 2 yds to the VTech 3Similar
Q3 10:38
2ND & 8
OWN 3
0
53.5%
Michael Brewer pass incomplete to Isaiah FordSimilar
Q3 10:32
3RD & 8
OWN 3
0
52.1%
Michael Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:32
4TH & 8
OWN 3
+3
51.4%
A.J. Hughes punt for 50 yds , Sherman Alston returns for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 19TD
5 plays · 50 yds · 2:2950% → 63%
Q3 10:21
1ST & 10
50
+6
49.8%
Marcus Outlow run for 6 yds to the VTech 44Similar
Q3 9:35
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+39
49.1%
Tyler Murphy run for 39 yds to the VTech 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
48.0%
Myles Willis run for 2 yds to the VTech 3Similar
Q3 9:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
48.0%
Jon Hilliman run for 1 yd to the VTech 2Similar
Q3 7:52
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
36.7%
Tyler Murphy pass complete to Marcus Outlow for 2 yds for a TD, (Joey Launceford PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 21FG
5 plays · 8 yds · 2:1065% → 74%
Q3 7:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
35.5%
Marcus Outlow run for 2 yds to the VTech 8Similar
Q3 7:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
34.9%
Tyler Murphy pass complete to Josh Bordner for 1 yd to the VTech 7Similar
Q3 7:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
35.5%
Marcus Outlow run for 5 yds to the VTech 2Similar
Q3 5:36
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+19
25.7%
Joey Launceford 19 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 22PUNT
10 plays · 19 yds · 2:3731% → 26%
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
31.0%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Ryan Malleck for 5 yds to the VTech 23Similar
Q3 5:30
2ND & 5
OWN 23
+1
31.6%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Willie Byrn for 1 yd to the VTech 24Similar
Q3 4:12
3RD & 4
OWN 24
+14
27.7%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Sam Rogers for 14 yds to the VTech 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
29.6%
Sam Rogers run for 5 yds to the VTech 43Similar
Q3 4:12
2ND & 5
OWN 43
-6
30.3%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, false start (Augie Conte) to the VTech 37Similar
Q3 3:03
2ND & 11
OWN 0
0
26.4%
Michael Brewer pass incomplete, clock 03:03, PENALTY BC personal foul off-setting, PENALTY VT intentional grounding off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:58
2ND & 11
OWN 37
0
27.6%
Michael Brewer pass incomplete, broken up by Kamrin MooreSimilar
Q3 2:53
3RD & 11
OWN 37
0
26.1%
Michael Brewer pass incomplete to Ryan MalleckSimilar
Q3 2:53
4TH & 11
OWN 37
+18
26.0%
A.J. Hughes punt for 44 yds , Sherman Alston returns for 18 yds to the BC 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0079% → 78%
Q3 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
20.8%
Myles Willis run for 1 yd to the BC 38Similar
Q3 2:42
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+8
20.5%
Sherman Alston run for 8 yds to the BC 46Similar
Q3 2:42
3RD & 1
OWN 46
0
20.4%
Tyler Murphy run for no gain to the BC 46Similar
Q3 2:42
4TH & 1
OWN 46
0
21.7%
Alex Howell punt for 21 yds, downed at the VTech 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 24TD
12 plays · 67 yds · 3:4424% → 41%
Q3 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
24.2%
Marshawn Williams run for 1 yd to the VTech 34Similar
Q3 0:35
2ND & 9
OWN 34
0
24.0%
Michael Brewer pass incomplete to Cam PhillipsSimilar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 9
OWN 34
0
22.6%
Michael Brewer pass incomplete to Cam PhillipsSimilar
Q4 14:55
4TH & 9
OWN 34
0
22.1%
Derek Di Nardo punt faked for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
25.8%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Willie Byrn for 1 yd to the BC 35Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 9
OPP 35
-8
27.7%
Michael Brewer sacked by Malachi Moore for a loss of 8 yards to the BC 43Similar
Q4 13:11
3RD & 17
OPP 43
+33
21.2%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Cam Phillips for 33 yds to the BC 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-2
26.2%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Bucky Hodges for a loss of 2 yards to the BC 12Similar
Q4 12:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
0
25.1%
Michael Brewer pass incomplete to Isaiah FordSimilar
Q4 12:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
+11
22.7%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Willie Byrn for 11 yds to the BC 1Similar
Q4 11:51
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
40.6%
Michael Brewer run for 1 yd for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 1:1670% → 68%
Q4 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-13
30.2%
Tyler Murphy sacked by Deon Clarke for a loss of 13 yards to the BC 21Similar
Q4 11:44
2ND & 23
OWN 21
+6
32.8%
Tyler Murphy run for 6 yds to the BC 27Similar
Q4 10:28
3RD & 17
OWN 27
0
30.8%
Tyler Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:28
4TH & 17
OWN 27
-3
32.0%
Alex Howell punt for 45 yds , Greg Stroman returns for a loss of 3 yards to the VTech 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 26TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 2:5633% → 70%
Q4 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
33.1%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Bucky Hodges for 6 yds to the VTech 31Similar
Q4 10:08
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
35.1%
Marshawn Williams run for 3 yds to the VTech 34Similar
Q4 9:37
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
34.0%
Marshawn Williams run for 4 yds to the VTech 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+33
34.6%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 33 yds to the BC 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:08
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
41.3%
Sam Rogers run for 4 yds to the BC 25Similar
Q4 8:27
2ND & 6
OPP 25
0
40.9%
Michael Brewer pass incomplete to Cam PhillipsSimilar
Q4 8:27
3RD & 6
OPP 25
+1
38.4%
Michael Brewer run for 1 yd to the BC 24Similar
Q4 8:27
4TH & 5
OPP 24
+17
35.1%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Sam Rogers for 17 yds to the BC 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
38.1%
Michael Brewer pass incomplete to Isaiah Ford, broken up by Justin SimmonsSimilar
Q4 7:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
37.6%
Michael Brewer pass incomplete to Cam Phillips, broken up by Manuel AsprillaSimilar
Q4 7:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
69.6%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Bucky Hodges for 7 yds for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 27FG
8 plays · 42 yds · 2:4941% → 71%
Q4 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
59.0%
Marcus Outlow run for 4 yds to the BC 35Similar
Q4 6:44
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+5
57.8%
Marcus Outlow rush up middle for 2 yards to the BC37 (Corey Marshall;Chuck Clark), PENALTY VT offside defense 5 yards to the BC40, NO PLAY, clock 06:44.Similar
Q4 6:24
2ND & 1
OWN 40
+25
56.7%
Tyler Murphy pass complete to Josh Bordner for 25 yds to the VTech 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:24
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
53.0%
Marcus Outlow run for 7 yds to the VTech 28Similar
Q4 6:24
2ND & 3
OPP 28
+2
52.3%
Marcus Outlow run for 2 yds to the VTech 26Similar
Q4 6:24
3RD & 1
OPP 26
-1
54.7%
Marcus Outlow run for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 27Similar
Q4 4:12
4TH & 2
OPP 27
+44
29.4%
Alex Howell 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 28PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:3842% → 37%
Q4 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
41.8%
Michael Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:05
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
41.1%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Willie Byrn for 5 yds to the VTech 30Similar
Q4 3:27
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
40.2%
Michael Brewer pass incomplete to Sam RogersSimilar
Q4 3:27
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
37.0%
A.J. Hughes punt for 27 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BC 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 29TD
5 plays · 57 yds · 0:2074% → 92%
Q4 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
25.6%
Marcus Outlow run for no gain to the BC 43Similar
Q4 3:14
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
24.2%
Myles Willis run for no gain to the BC 43Similar
Q4 2:59
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+57
7.9%
Tyler Murphy run for 57 yds for a TD, (Joey Launceford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 30TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 2:316% → 35%
Q4 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
6.2%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 13 yds to the VTech 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
6.9%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 11 yds to the VTech 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
5.4%
Michael Brewer run for 7 yds to the BC 44Similar
Q4 1:46
2ND & 3
OPP 44
+26
5.4%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Sam Rogers for 26 yds to the BC 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:41
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
6.6%
Michael Brewer pass incomplete, broken up by Truman GutapfelSimilar
Q4 1:41
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+3
6.5%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Ryan Malleck for 3 yds to the BC 15Similar
Q4 1:41
3RD & 7
OPP 15
+5
5.7%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Cam Phillips for 5 yds to the BC 10Similar
Q4 0:41
4TH & 2
OPP 10
+5
4.3%
Michael Brewer run for 5 yds to the BC 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
35.1%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Ryan Malleck for 5 yds for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 31END OF GAME
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q4 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-1
6.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 7:12
Michael Brewer pass complete to Bucky Hodges for 7 yds for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK)
+32
TD · Q4 0:28
Michael Brewer pass complete to Ryan Malleck for 5 yds for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK)
+30.8
FG · Q4 4:12
Alex Howell 44 yd FG GOOD
-25.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com