2014 · Week 8 · Oct 18, 2014 · Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)
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Win probability · BC
modelBC aheadCLEM aheadconfidence bandkey playBC scoreCLEM score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 15:00 · Bradley Pinion punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Sherman Alston at the BC 16
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 7:29: Tyler Murphy pass complete to Sherman Alston for 26 yds for a TD, (Mike Knoll KICK) — BC win probability +10.5 pts (now 41%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
- TD · Q4 10:59: Tyler Murphy pass complete to Josh Bordner for 6 yds for a TD, (Mike Knoll MISSED) — BC win probability +24.5 pts (now 70%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 10:59: C.J. Davidson run for 6 yds to the BC 44 — CLEM win probability +8.9 pts (now 46%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
- TD · Q4 9:35: C.J. Davidson run for 32 yds for a TD, (Ammon Lakip KICK) — CLEM win probability +31.4 pts (now 78%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 0:49: TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Clem 30 — CLEM win probability +20.6 pts (now 94%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
BC made the numbers' call on 10 of 12CLEM made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
- Q1 15:00BC 4th & 19 at BC 16, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 32.3% before the snapGo for it32.2%−0.210% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call32.4%average punt
- Q1 12:30CLEM 4th & 6 at CLEM 36, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 66.5% before the snapGo for it66.5%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call66.5%average punt
- Q1 8:52BC 4th & 16 at BC 35, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 34.5% before the snapGo for it34.3%−0.315% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call34.7%average punt
- Q1 4:24CLEM 4th & 6 at CLEM 47, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 63.3% before the snapGo for it63.4%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call63.4%average punt
- Q1 3:43BC 4th & 3 at BC 13, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 36.1% before the snapGo for it36.3%−<0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call36.3%average punt
- Q1 1:38CLEM 4th & 3 at CLEM 46, tiedClose callPunted · 62.9% before the snapGo for it63.1%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call62.9%−0.2average punt
- Q2 15:00BC 4th & 14 at BC 16, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 37.7% before the snapGo for it37.1%−0.917% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call38.0%average punt
- Q2 11:42BC 4th & 7 at CLEM 46, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.0% before the snapGo for it33.3%−<0.137% to convertField goal32.2%−1.123% to makePuntTheir call33.3%average punt
- Q2 10:12CLEM 4th & 9 at CLEM 21, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.1% before the snapGo for it65.3%−1.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call66.4%average punt
- Q2 7:29CLEM 4th & 8 at CLEM 48, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 60.1% before the snapGo for it59.8%−0.334% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call60.1%average punt
- Q2 4:57BC 4th & 9 at BC 18, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 41.4% before the snapGo for it40.2%−1.230% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call41.4%average punt
- Q3 15:00CLEM 4th & 6 at CLEM 41, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.8% before the snapGo for it61.9%−1.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call63.0%average punt
- Q3 13:14BC 4th & 10 at BC 20, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.8% before the snapGo for it35.4%−1.527% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call36.8%average punt
- Q3 11:41CLEM 4th & 5 at CLEM 28, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.4% before the snapGo for it60.0%−0.640% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call60.6%average punt
- Q3 9:48BC 4th & 22 at CLEM 41, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.9% before the snapGo for it36.0%−2.88% to convertField goal38.1%−0.732% to makePuntTheir call38.8%average punt
- Q3 7:22CLEM 4th & 16 at BC 43, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.6% before the snapGo for it59.7%−2.316% to convertField goal60.6%−1.528% to makePuntTheir call62.1%average punt
- Q3 2:10BC 4th & 2 at BC 25, down 3Close callPunted · 38.3% before the snapGo for it39.7%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call38.8%−0.9average punt
- Q4 15:00CLEM 4th & 11 at CLEM 41, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.9% before the snapGo for it58.7%−3.826% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call62.5%average punt
- Q4 9:35BC 4th & 14 at BC 33, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.7% before the snapGo for it28.2%−4.218% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call32.4%average punt
- Q4 4:20CLEM 4th & 3 at CLEM 27, up 4Close callPunted · 74.9% before the snapGo for it75.0%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call74.6%−0.5average punt
- Q4 3:25BC 4th & 1 at CLEM 29, down 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call33.1%71% to convertField goal28.9%−4.258% to makePunt17.0%−16.1average punt
- Q4 3:25BC 4th & 15 at CLEM 31, down 4Numbers favored field goal by 5.6 ptsWent for it · 27.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call22.3%−5.617% to convertField goal27.9%54% to makePunt20.2%−7.6average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BC made the numbers' call on 1 of 1CLEM made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q2 11:42CLEM Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call66.4%97% to makeGo for two66.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:29BC Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call39.2%97% to makeGo for two39.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 9:35CLEM Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call64.8%97% to makeGo for two64.4%−0.445% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartBCDrive 1PUNT7 plays · -9 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
26.9%
Hilliman,J rush for loss of 5 yards to the BC24 (ANTHONY), PENALTY CU offside 5 yards to the BC34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-2
26.9%
Tyler Murphy pass complete to Sherman Alston for a loss of 2 yards to the BC 32Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-15
26.9%
Murphy,T rush for 12 yards to the BC44, out-of-bounds, PENALTY BC illegal block 15 yards to the BC17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 18
OWN 17
-1
26.9%
Tyler Murphy pass complete to Sherman Alston for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 2PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
Q1 12:30
4TH & 6
OWN 36
0
28.1%
Bradley Pinion punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Sherman Alston at the BC 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 3PUNT7 plays · 12 yds · 1:4729% → 29%
Q1 8:52
3RD & 4
OWN 47
-12
30.0%
Tyler Murphy sacked by Tony Steward for a loss of 12 yards to the BC 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 4PUNT11 plays · 38 yds · 3:4770% → 68%
Q1 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
29.9%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Artavis Scott for 4 yds to the Clem 25Similar
Q1 8:11
3RD & 4
OWN 27
+16
29.9%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Mike Williams for 16 yds to the Clem 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:24
4TH & 6
OWN 47
0
31.6%
Bradley Pinion punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Sherman Alston at the BC 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 5PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0032% → 31%
Q1 3:43
4TH & 3
OWN 13
+47
31.3%
Alex Howell punt for 47 yds , Adam Humphries returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Clem 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 6PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0068% → 68%
Q1 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
31.7%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Artavis Scott for 4 yds to the Clem 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 7PUNT4 plays · -4 yds · 0:0034% → 33%
CLEMDrive 8TD4 plays · 50 yds · 1:2168% → 73%
BCDrive 9PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0030% → 29%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 10PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0071% → 70%
BCDrive 11TD4 plays · 63 yds · 1:0329% → 41%
CLEMDrive 12PUNT9 plays · 31 yds · 0:0065% → 64%
Q2 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+11
35.3%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Mike Williams for 11 yds to the Clem 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:29
3RD & 7
OWN 31
+15
35.7%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Mike Williams for 15 yds to the Clem 46 for a 1ST down BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, Defensive offside (NA) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:29
4TH & 8
OWN 48
0
35.7%
Bradley Pinion punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Sherman Alston at the BC 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 13PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0040% → 38%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 14FG14 plays · 69 yds · 3:2163% → 70%
Q2 3:21
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
37.3%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Wayne Gallman for 3 yds to the Clem 28Similar
Q2 3:21
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+17
37.9%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Adam Humphries for 17 yds to the Clem 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+21
34.9%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Jordan Leggett for 21 yds to the BC 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:21
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-3
33.5%
Cole Stoudt sacked by Malachi Moore for a loss of 3 yards to the BC 37Similar
Q2 3:21
2ND & 13
OPP 37
+8
35.2%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Artavis Scott for 8 yds to the BC 29Similar
Q2 0:51
3RD & 5
OPP 29
+10
34.6%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Jay Jay McCullough for 10 yds to the BC 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 15PUNT7 plays · 23 yds · 0:0066% → 65%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+7
34.1%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Artavis Scott for 7 yds to the Clem 25Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 25
+12
33.4%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Artavis Scott for 12 yds to the Clem 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+4
33.5%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Jordan Leggett for 4 yds to the Clem 41Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 41
0
32.8%
Cole Stoudt pass incomplete to Adam Humphries, broken up by Kamrin MooreSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 41
0
34.9%
Bradley Pinion punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Sherman Alston at the BC 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 16PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0036% → 34%
Q3 13:14
4TH & 10
OWN 20
-2
33.6%
Alex Howell punt for 55 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Clem 23 , Adam Humphries returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Clem 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 17PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0065% → 63%
BCDrive 18PUNT7 plays · 23 yds · 0:3238% → 34%
Q3 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+35
37.5%
Josh Bordner pass complete to Charlie Callinan for 35 yds to the Clem 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:48
2ND & 10
OPP 29
-10
40.5%
Murphy,T pass complete to Alston,S for 5 yards to the CU24 (WIGGINS), PENALTY BC holding 10 yards to the CU39, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 19PUNT16 plays · 54 yds · 0:0065% → 64%
Q3 7:22
2ND & 13
OWN 12
+11
34.9%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Mike Williams for 11 yds to the Clem 23Similar
Q3 7:22
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
34.6%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Germone Hopper for 5 yds to the Clem 30Similar
Q3 7:22
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+8
34.0%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Germone Hopper for 8 yds to the Clem 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+12
32.0%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Mike Williams for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:22
1ST & 10
50
0
30.8%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Artavis Scott for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 7:22
2ND & 10
50
+13
31.0%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Artavis Scott for 13 yds to the BC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:22
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-1
30.8%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Artavis Scott for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 38Similar
Q3 7:22
4TH & 16
OPP 43
0
35.7%
Bradley Pinion punt for 26 yds, fair catch by Sherman Alston at the BC 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 20PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0036% → 33%
Q3 2:10
3RD & 4
OWN 23
+2
34.2%
Tyler Murphy pass complete to Marcus Outlow for 2 yds to the BC 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 21PUNT8 plays · 22 yds · 0:3565% → 63%
Q3 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+10
34.7%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Artavis Scott for 10 yds to the Clem 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 28
+14
36.5%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to C.J. Davidson for 14 yds to the Clem 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
31.5%
Cole Stoudt pass incomplete to Mike Williams, broken up by Manuel AsprillaSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 41
0
34.6%
Cole Stoudt pass incomplete to Artavis Scott, broken up by Justin SimmonsSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 11
OWN 41
0
36.9%
Bradley Pinion punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Sherman Alston at the BC 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 22TD7 plays · 84 yds · 2:2737% → 70%
Q4 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+48
36.8%
Tyler Murphy pass complete to Dan Crimmins for 48 yds to the Clem 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:26
3RD & 10
OPP 36
+15
41.0%
Tyler Murphy pass complete to Charlie Callinan for 15 yds to the Clem 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
69.7%
Tyler Murphy pass complete to Josh Bordner for 6 yds for a TD, (Mike Knoll MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 23TD7 plays · 82 yds · 1:2440% → 78%
BCDrive 24PUNT8 plays · 14 yds · 0:0033% → 30%
Q4 9:35
3RD & 6
OWN 23
+14
31.1%
Tyler Murphy pass complete to Charlie Callinan for 14 yds to the BC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:35
2ND & 15
OWN 32
-3
32.8%
Tyler Murphy sacked by Josh Watson for a loss of 3 yards to the BC 29Similar
Q4 9:35
4TH & 14
OWN 33
0
30.2%
Alex Howell punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Adam Humphries at the Clem 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 25PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 1:2877% → 77%
Q4 4:20
4TH & 3
OWN 27
0
23.2%
Bradley Pinion punt for 55 yds , Sherman Alston returns for no gain to the BC 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 26DOWNS11 plays · 51 yds · 0:0028% → 27%
CLEMDrive 27END OF GAME5 plays · -5 yds · 0:0594% → 94%
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 9:35
C.J. Davidson run for 32 yds for a TD, (Ammon Lakip KICK)
-31.4
TD · Q4 10:59
Tyler Murphy pass complete to Josh Bordner for 6 yds for a TD, (Mike Knoll MISSED)
+24.5
KEY PLAY · Q4 0:49
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Clem 30
-20.6