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PITT

Pittsburgh 30 at Boston College 20

BC
2014 · Week 2 · Sep 5, 2014 · Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)
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Win probability · BC
modelBC aheadPITT aheadconfidence bandkey playBC scorePITT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGTDTDTDFGTDEnd of GameFG—BC 49.3%Chris Blewitt 49 yd FG GOODAWAY 3 - HOME 0 · Q1 11:32
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 11:32 · Chris Blewitt 49 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime per score still needed
+44.5+22.30−22.3−44.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 9Home team on offense−0.4Score differential−0.2Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.1Time per score still needed+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:08: Chad Voytik pass complete to Tyler Boyd for 15 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK) — PITT win probability +4.6 pts (now 53%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:18: Chad Voytik pass complete to Tyler Boyd for 5 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK) — PITT win probability +11.3 pts (now 76%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:15: James Conner run for 9 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK) — PITT win probability +11.8 pts (now 95%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 3:28: Tyler Murphy pass complete to Shakim Phillips for 48 yds for a TD, (Alex Howell KICK), (Joey Launceford KICK) — BC win probability +16.1 pts (now 22%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:43: Tyler Murphy run for 2 yds for a TD, (Tyler Murphy failed ) — BC win probability +4.5 pts (now 6%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BC made the numbers' call on 7 of 9PITT made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 11:32PITT 4th & 4 at BC 31, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 45.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.5%−0.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    45.4%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:45PITT 4th & 18 at PITT 48, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.0%−0.6
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:10BC 4th & 15 at BC 11, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.4%−1.1
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:56BC 4th & 10 at PITT 29, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 56.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.3%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.6%
    58% to make
    Punt
    54.6%−2.0
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:41BC 4th & 6 at BC 26, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.6%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:20PITT 4th & 6 at BC 24, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 49.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.0%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.1%
    68% to make
    Punt
    44.1%−5.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:40BC 4th & 1 at BC 45, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 46.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    47.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    45.9%−1.8
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:15BC 4th & 17 at PITT 34, down 6
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.3 ptsPunted · 43.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.7%−1.4
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    44.2%
    47% to make
    PuntTheir call
    42.8%−1.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:03PITT 4th & 8 at BC 40, up 13
    Close callPunted · 73.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.5%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    72.5%−1.0
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    73.1%−0.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:43BC 4th & 10 at BC 32, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.0%−1.9
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.9%
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:00PITT 4th & 4 at PITT 31, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.9%−1.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.1%
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:27BC 4th & 16 at BC 17, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.2%−2.0
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.2%
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:53PITT 4th & 9 at BC 23, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 91.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.9%−0.9
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.8%
    70% to make
    Punt
    84.6%−6.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:46BC 4th & 4 at BC 40, down 16
    Close callPunted · 7.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.2%−0.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:03PITT 4th & 9 at PITT 28, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.0%−0.5
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.4%
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:05BC 4th & 20 at BC 20, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.8%−0.2
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.0%
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:55PITT 4th & 5 at PITT 28, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.6%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.6%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BC made the numbers' call on 2 of 2PITT made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 9:55BC Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:08PITT Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:18PITT Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 5:15PITT Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 3:28BC Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PITTDrive 1FG
9 plays · 44 yds · 3:0851% → 51%
Q1 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
49.0%
James Conner run for 1 yd to the Pitt 26Similar
Q1 14:10
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
49.1%
Chad Voytik run for no gain to the Pitt 26Similar
Q1 13:30
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+23
49.3%
Chad Voytik run for 23 yds to the Pitt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+14
49.1%
James Conner run for 14 yds to the BC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
49.1%
Chad Voytik pass complete to Tyler Boyd for 4 yds to the BC 33Similar
Q1 12:00
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+2
49.1%
James Conner run for 2 yds to the BC 31Similar
Q1 11:37
3RD & 4
OPP 31
0
49.2%
Chad Voytik pass incomplete to Manasseh GarnerSimilar
Q1 11:32
4TH & 4
OPP 31
+49
49.3%
Chris Blewitt 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 2TD
5 plays · 67 yds · 1:1549% → 51%
Q1 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+12
49.4%
Tyler Murphy run for 12 yds to the BC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
49.9%
Tyler Murphy pass complete to Shakim Phillips for 3 yds to the BC 48Similar
Q1 10:07
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+51
49.9%
Tyler Murphy run for 51 yds to the Pitt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
51.2%
Tyler Rouse run for 1 yd for a TD, (Joey Launceford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 3PUNT
10 plays · 23 yds · 2:4549% → 47%
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
50.9%
Tyler Boyd run for 4 yds to the Pitt 29Similar
Q1 9:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+9
50.8%
James Conner run for 9 yds to the Pitt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+18
50.9%
James Conner run for 18 yds to the BC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
50.6%
Chad Voytik pass incomplete to J.P. HoltzSimilar
Q1 8:08
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
50.6%
Chad Voytik pass incomplete to Tyler BoydSimilar
Q1 7:58
3RD & 10
OPP 44
-10
51.6%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Pitt 46Similar
Q1 7:05
3RD & 20
OWN 46
+2
52.3%
Chad Voytik pass complete to J.P. Holtz for 2 yds to the Pitt 48Similar
Q1 6:45
4TH & 18
OWN 48
0
52.8%
Ryan Winslow punt for 48 yds, downed at the BC 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 3:1052% → 52%
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+4
52.0%
Tyler Rouse run for 4 yds to the BC 8Similar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 6
OWN 8
+3
52.1%
Tyler Rouse run for 3 yds to the BC 11Similar
Q1 5:15
3RD & 3
OWN 11
+5
52.0%
Tyler Rouse run for 5 yds to the BC 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
52.7%
Myles Willis run for 2 yds to the BC 18Similar
Q1 4:10
2ND & 8
OWN 18
+2
52.8%
Myles Willis run for 2 yds to the BC 20Similar
Q1 3:49
3RD & 6
OWN 20
-9
52.6%
Tyler Murphy sacked by Bam Bradley for a loss of 9 yards to the BC 11Similar
Q1 3:10
4TH & 15
OWN 11
+11
52.4%
Alex Howell punt for 62 yds , Tyler Boyd returns for 11 yds to the Pitt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 5INT
3 plays · 6 yds · 0:5147% → 47%
Q1 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
53.2%
Chad Voytik pass incomplete to Tyler BoydSimilar
Q1 2:40
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+6
53.3%
James Conner run for 6 yds to the Pitt 44Similar
Q1 2:13
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+23
52.9%
Chad Voytik pass intercepted Steven Daniels return for 23 yds to the Pitt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 6MISSED FG
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:1355% → 53%
Q1 2:09
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
55.1%
Tyler Murphy pass incomplete to Dan CrimminsSimilar
Q1 2:06
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
55.1%
Tyler Murphy pass incomplete to Josh BordnerSimilar
Q1 2:02
3RD & 10
OPP 29
0
54.5%
Tyler Murphy pass incomplete to Shakim PhillipsSimilar
Q1 1:56
4TH & 10
OPP 29
+46
53.0%
Alex Howell 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 7TD
9 plays · 71 yds · 3:2247% → 53%
Q1 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+17
53.5%
James Conner run for 17 yds to the Pitt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+8
52.7%
James Conner run for 8 yds to the BC 46Similar
Q1 0:30
2ND & 2
OPP 46
+4
52.4%
Chris James run for 4 yds to the BC 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+10
52.7%
Chris James run for 10 yds to the BC 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:40
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
52.0%
James Conner run for 6 yds to the BC 26Similar
Q2 14:10
2ND & 4
OPP 26
+11
51.9%
James Conner run for 11 yds to the BC 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
52.0%
James Conner run for no gain to the BC 15Similar
Q2 13:14
2ND & 10
OPP 15
0
52.0%
Chad Voytik pass incomplete to Tyler BoydSimilar
Q2 13:08
3RD & 10
OPP 15
+15
47.4%
Chad Voytik pass complete to Tyler Boyd for 15 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 1:5949% → 47%
Q2 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
48.7%
Jon Hilliman run for 6 yds to the BC 28Similar
Q2 12:10
2ND & 4
OWN 28
+2
49.2%
Jon Hilliman run for 2 yds to the BC 30Similar
Q2 11:56
3RD & 2
OWN 30
-5
48.5%
BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the BC 25Similar
Q2 11:00
3RD & 7
OWN 25
+1
47.6%
Tyler Murphy pass complete to Josh Bordner for 1 yd to the BC 26Similar
Q2 10:41
4TH & 6
OWN 26
0
47.2%
Alex Howell punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Tyler Boyd at the Pitt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 9FG
10 plays · 42 yds · 4:0053% → 59%
Q2 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+23
47.5%
James Conner run for 23 yds to the BC 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
45.7%
James Conner run for 7 yds to the BC 36Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 3
OPP 36
+2
45.3%
James Conner run for 2 yds to the BC 34Similar
Q2 8:35
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+6
45.4%
James Conner run for 6 yds to the BC 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:07
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
43.5%
Chris James run for no gain to the BC 28Similar
Q2 7:40
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+7
43.7%
Chad Voytik pass complete to Tyler Boyd for 7 yds to the BC 21Similar
Q2 7:03
3RD & 3
OPP 21
-3
44.1%
Chad Voytik run for 7 yds to the BC 14 PITTSBURGH Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the BC 24Similar
Q2 6:40
3RD & 6
OPP 24
0
44.7%
Chad Voytik pass complete to Isaac Bennett for no gain to the BC 24Similar
Q2 6:20
4TH & 6
OPP 24
+42
41.0%
Chris Blewitt 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 10PUNT
14 plays · 41 yds · 4:4543% → 41%
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
42.7%
Myles Willis run for a loss of 2 yards to the BC 23Similar
Q2 5:30
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+13
42.4%
Sherman Alston run for 13 yds to the BC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
43.1%
Jon Hilliman run for 3 yds to the BC 39Similar
Q2 4:32
2ND & 7
OWN 39
0
43.9%
Tyler Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:14
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+6
42.5%
Tyler Murphy pass complete to Charlie Callinan for 6 yds to the BC 45Similar
Q2 3:40
4TH & 1
OWN 45
+3
43.0%
Tyler Murphy run for 3 yds to the BC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+25
44.3%
Tyler Murphy pass complete to Shakim Phillips for 25 yds to the Pitt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-3
46.1%
Tyler Murphy run for a loss of 3 yards to the Pitt 30Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 13
OPP 30
+1
44.8%
Tyler Rouse run for 1 yd to the Pitt 29Similar
Q2 1:48
3RD & 12
OPP 29
-5
43.0%
BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Pitt 34Similar
Q2 1:23
3RD & 17
OPP 34
0
41.7%
Tyler Murphy pass incomplete to Josh BordnerSimilar
Q2 1:15
4TH & 17
OPP 34
0
41.0%
Alex Howell punt for 34 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 11TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 0:5059% → 76%
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+34
40.6%
Tyler Boyd run for 19 yds to the BC 39 for a 1ST down BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the BC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
36.5%
Chad Voytik pass incomplete to James ConnerSimilar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+10
37.0%
Chad Voytik run for 10 yds to the BC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+9
35.9%
Chad Voytik pass complete to J.P. Holtz for 9 yds to the BC 27Similar
Q2 0:24
2ND & 1
OPP 27
+22
35.4%
Chad Voytik pass complete to Manasseh Garner for 22 yds to the BC 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
24.2%
Chad Voytik pass complete to Tyler Boyd for 5 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
29.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the BC 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 13INT
7 plays · 13 yds · 2:4231% → 29%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
31.2%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, Personal Foul (5 Yards) to the BC 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
31.3%
Myles Willis run for 1 yd to the BC 31Similar
Q3 14:00
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+9
31.0%
Tyler Murphy pass complete to Dan Crimmins for 9 yds to the BC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
31.6%
Myles Willis run for 2 yds to the BC 42Similar
Q3 12:46
2ND & 8
OWN 42
-4
30.5%
Tyler Murphy sacked by Anthony Gonzalez for a loss of 4 yards to the BC 38Similar
Q3 12:18
3RD & 12
OWN 38
+13
28.6%
Tyler Murphy pass intercepted Ray Vinopal return for 13 yds to the BC 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:4776% → 75%
Q3 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+8
24.2%
James Conner run for 8 yds to the BC 34Similar
Q3 11:20
2ND & 2
OPP 34
-1
22.6%
James Conner run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 35Similar
Q3 11:11
3RD & 3
OPP 35
0
23.0%
Chad Voytik pass incomplete to Manasseh GarnerSimilar
Q3 11:11
4TH & 3
OPP 35
-5
25.2%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the BC 40Similar
Q3 11:03
4TH & 8
OPP 40
0
24.6%
Ryan Winslow punt for 40 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 3:0228% → 25%
Q3 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
28.4%
Tyler Murphy pass complete to Shakim Phillips for 2 yds to the BC 22Similar
Q3 9:45
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+3
27.7%
Myles Willis run for 3 yds to the BC 25Similar
Q3 9:20
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+7
27.1%
Tyler Murphy run for 7 yds to the BC 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
27.5%
Tyler Murphy pass incomplete to Shakim PhillipsSimilar
Q3 8:40
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
26.9%
Tyler Murphy run for no gain to the BC 32Similar
Q3 7:52
3RD & 10
OWN 32
0
24.9%
Tyler Murphy pass incomplete to Bobby WolfordSimilar
Q3 7:43
4TH & 10
OWN 32
0
24.7%
Alex Howell punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Tyler Boyd at the Pitt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 16TD
6 plays · 71 yds · 2:0578% → 95%
Q3 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
22.0%
James Conner run for 2 yds to the Pitt 31Similar
Q3 6:35
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+14
19.4%
James Conner run for 14 yds to the Pitt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+41
17.8%
Chad Voytik pass complete to Tyler Boyd for 41 yds to the BC 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
16.4%
James Conner run for 5 yds to the BC 9Similar
Q3 5:15
2ND & 5
OPP 9
+9
4.6%
James Conner run for 9 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 17TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:229% → 22%
Q3 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
8.7%
Tyler Murphy pass complete to Dan Crimmins for 4 yds to the BC 29Similar
Q3 4:20
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
6.7%
Tyler Rouse run for no gain to the BC 29Similar
Q3 3:45
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+23
6.3%
Tyler Murphy pass complete to Tyler Rouse for 23 yds to the Pitt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:28
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+48
22.4%
Tyler Murphy pass complete to Shakim Phillips for 48 yds for a TD, (Alex Howell KICK), (Joey Launceford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:0084% → 84%
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
15.8%
James Conner run for 7 yds to the Pitt 32Similar
Q3 2:30
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-1
15.2%
James Conner run for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 31Similar
Q3 2:08
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
15.5%
Chad Voytik pass incomplete to Manasseh GarnerSimilar
Q3 2:00
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
15.7%
Ryan Winslow punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Thaddius Smith at the BC 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 1:0319% → 18%
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
18.8%
Myles Willis run for 6 yds to the BC 29Similar
Q3 1:20
2ND & 4
OWN 29
0
19.0%
Tyler Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:45
3RD & 4
OWN 29
-12
18.2%
Josh Bordner run for a loss of 12 yards to the BC 17Similar
Q3 0:27
4TH & 16
OWN 17
+1
17.5%
Alex Howell punt for 40 yds , Tyler Boyd returns for 1 yd to the Pitt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 20FG
11 plays · 33 yds · 5:0787% → 94%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
12.6%
James Conner run for 2 yds to the Pitt 46Similar
Q4 14:30
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+6
12.9%
Chad Voytik pass complete to J.P. Holtz for 6 yds to the BC 48Similar
Q4 14:00
3RD & 2
OPP 48
+3
12.6%
James Conner run for 3 yds to the BC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+10
10.2%
James Conner run for 10 yds to the BC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
9.7%
James Conner run for 5 yds to the BC 30Similar
Q4 11:50
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+2
8.5%
Chris James run for 2 yds to the BC 28Similar
Q4 11:30
3RD & 3
OPP 28
+4
8.4%
Chris James run for 4 yds to the BC 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-3
7.6%
James Conner run for a loss of 3 yards to the BC 27Similar
Q4 10:25
2ND & 13
OPP 27
+4
7.4%
James Conner run for 4 yds to the BC 23Similar
Q4 9:59
3RD & 9
OPP 23
0
7.5%
Chad Voytik pass incomplete to Manasseh GarnerSimilar
Q4 9:53
4TH & 9
OPP 23
+41
6.5%
Chris Blewitt 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:247% → 7%
Q4 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
6.7%
Tyler Murphy run for 6 yds to the BC 40Similar
Q4 8:59
2ND & 4
OWN 40
0
7.1%
Tyler Murphy pass incomplete to Shakim PhillipsSimilar
Q4 8:54
3RD & 4
OWN 40
0
7.0%
Tyler Murphy pass incomplete to Dan CrimminsSimilar
Q4 8:46
4TH & 4
OWN 40
0
6.6%
Alex Howell punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Tyler Boyd at the Pitt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 22PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 4:1294% → 97%
Q4 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
5.8%
James Conner run for 5 yds to the Pitt 20Similar
Q4 7:35
2ND & 5
OWN 20
+1
5.5%
James Conner run for 1 yd to the Pitt 21Similar
Q4 7:00
3RD & 4
OWN 21
+6
5.3%
Chad Voytik run for 6 yds to the Pitt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
4.6%
James Conner run for 8 yds to the Pitt 35Similar
Q4 5:32
2ND & 2
OWN 35
-9
4.2%
James Conner run for 1 yd to the Pitt 36 PITTSBURGH Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Pitt 26Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 11
OWN 26
+1
4.0%
James Conner run for 1 yd to the Pitt 27Similar
Q4 4:20
3RD & 10
OWN 27
+1
3.4%
Isaac Bennett run for 1 yd to the Pitt 28Similar
Q4 4:03
4TH & 9
OWN 28
0
3.3%
Ryan Winslow punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Thaddius Smith at the BC 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · -10 yds · 0:523% → 3%
Q4 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
3.3%
Tyler Murphy pass incomplete to Shakim PhillipsSimilar
Q4 3:52
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
3.3%
Tyler Murphy pass incomplete to Charlie CallinanSimilar
Q4 3:20
3RD & 10
OWN 30
-10
3.1%
Tyler Murphy sacked by Rori Blair for a loss of 10 yards to the BC 20Similar
Q4 3:05
4TH & 20
OWN 20
0
3.1%
Alex Howell punt for 57 yds, fair catch by Tyler Boyd at the Pitt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:5797% → 98%
Q4 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
2.7%
James Conner run for 3 yds to the Pitt 26Similar
Q4 2:10
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+1
2.5%
Chad Voytik run for 1 yd to the Pitt 27 Chad Voytik fumbled, recovered by Pitt Chad VoytikSimilar
Q4 2:04
3RD & 6
OWN 27
+1
2.6%
James Conner run for 1 yd to the Pitt 28Similar
Q4 1:55
4TH & 5
OWN 28
0
1.9%
Ryan Winslow punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Thaddius Smith at the BC 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 25TD
10 plays · 64 yds · 1:021% → 6%
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
1.0%
Tyler Murphy pass incomplete to Dan CrimminsSimilar
Q4 1:43
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
1.0%
Tyler Murphy pass incomplete to Dan CrimminsSimilar
Q4 1:35
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+13
1.0%
Tyler Murphy pass complete to Charlie Callinan for 13 yds to the BC 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
1.0%
Tyler Murphy run for 9 yds to the Pitt 42Similar
Q4 1:19
2ND & 1
OPP 42
+10
1.3%
Tyler Murphy run for 10 yds to the Pitt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+11
1.3%
Tyler Murphy run for 11 yds to the Pitt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
1.2%
Tyler Murphy pass incomplete to Shakim PhillipsSimilar
Q4 0:56
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+19
1.3%
Tyler Murphy run for 19 yds to the Pitt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
5.8%
Tyler Murphy run for 2 yds for a TD, (Tyler Murphy failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 26INT
4 plays · 15 yds · 0:303% → 4%
Q4 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
3.3%
Tyler Murphy pass incomplete to Thaddius SmithSimilar
Q4 0:30
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+15
3.3%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Pitt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:06
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
3.7%
Tyler Murphy pass intercepted, touchback. Terrish Webb return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 27END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
4.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Pitt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:28
Tyler Murphy pass complete to Shakim Phillips for 48 yds for a TD, (Alex Howell KICK), (Joey Launceford KICK)
+16.1
TD · Q3 5:15
James Conner run for 9 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK)
-11.8
TD · Q2 0:18
Chad Voytik pass complete to Tyler Boyd for 5 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK)
-11.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com