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BC

Boston College 30 at Massachusetts 7

MASS
2014 · Week 1 · Aug 30, 2014 · Gillette Stadium
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Win probability · MASS
modelMASS aheadBC aheadconfidence bandkey playMASS scoreBC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 7:34 · Brian McDonald punt for 49 yds, downed at the BC 2
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+52.0+26.00−26.0−52.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 28Pregame prior−27.0Home team on offense+0.1Score differential−0.2Garbage-time factor−0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. KEY PLAY · Q3 15:00: Blake Lucas kickoff for 63 yds , Myles Willis return for 23 yds to the BC 25 — MASS win probability +6.8 pts (now 28%) (top driver: MASS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 8:49: Myles Willis run for 1 yd for a TD, (Joey Launceford KICK) — BC win probability +9.5 pts (now 86%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:10: Tyler Murphy run for 1 yd for a TD, (Joey Launceford KICK) — BC win probability +10.4 pts (now 97%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 1:29: Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for 77 yds for a TD, (Blake Lucas KICK) — MASS win probability +9.7 pts (now 14%) (top driver: MASS has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 14:52: Tyler Murphy pass complete to Josh Bordner for 43 yds for a TD, (Joey Launceford KICK) — BC win probability +7.6 pts (now 98%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MASS made the numbers' call on 6 of 8BC made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 15:00MASS 4th & 8 at BC 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.9%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:22BC 4th & 5 at MASS 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 77.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    77.3%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    77.3%−<0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    77.0%−0.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:34MASS 4th & 16 at MASS 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.1%−0.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.4%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:21BC 4th & 3 at MASS 27, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 71.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.9%−0.3
    62% to make
    Punt
    69.0%−2.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:13MASS 4th & 3 at MASS 43, down 3
    Close callPunted · 28.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.7%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:29BC 4th & 9 at MASS 11, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 69.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.8%−0.5
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.4%
    87% to make
    Punt
    64.7%−4.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:29MASS 4th & 10 at BC 43, down 6
    Close callPunted · 27.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.5%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    26.0%−0.5
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    26.4%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:18MASS 4th & 21 at BC 30, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.1%−1.8
    9% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.9%
    56% to make
    Punt
    25.4%−1.5
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:25BC 4th & 2 at MASS 45, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 75.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    74.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    74.6%−0.2
    25% to make
    Punt
    74.3%−0.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 14:55BC 4th & 1 at MASS 14, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 74.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    74.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    72.2%−1.9
    84% to make
    Punt
    66.1%−7.9
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:49MASS 4th & 17 at MASS 18, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.6%−1.9
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.5%
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:10MASS 4th & 1 at BC 48, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.2%−1.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 7:35BC 4th & 4 at MASS 4, up 20
    Close callKicked a field goal · 98.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.8%−0.3
    93% to make
    Punt
    95.4%−2.7
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:29MASS 4th & 9 at MASS 45, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.3%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.5%
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:14BC 4th & 2 at BC 37, up 23
    Close callPunted · 99.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.0%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MASS made the numbers' call on 1 of 1BC made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q3 8:49BC Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 3:10BC Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 1:29MASS Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 14:52BC Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MASSDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 31 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
20.5%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Brandon Howard for 7 yds to the UMass 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+22
20.5%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Rodney Mills for 22 yds to the UMass 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
20.5%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Alex Kenney, broken up by Manuel AsprillaSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+7
20.5%
Jamal Wilson run for 7 yds to the BC 44Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 44
-5
20.5%
MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the BC 49Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 49
0
20.5%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Marken MichelSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 8
OPP 49
0
20.5%
Brian McDonald punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 2DOWNS
12 plays · 51 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q1 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
21.3%
Myles Willis run for 5 yds to the BC 25Similar
Q1 13:22
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+13
21.3%
Tyler Murphy run for 13 yds to the BC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-5
21.2%
BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, false start (Michael Giacone) to the BC 33Similar
Q1 13:22
1ST & 15
OWN 33
+10
21.3%
Myles Willis run for 10 yds to the BC 43Similar
Q1 13:22
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+7
21.2%
Tyler Murphy pass complete to Charlie Callinan for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:22
1ST & 10
50
+5
21.2%
Tyler Murphy run for 5 yds to the UMass 45Similar
Q1 13:22
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+11
21.2%
Tyler Rouse run for 11 yds to the UMass 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:22
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
21.2%
Tyler Murphy pass complete to Dan Crimmins for 1 yd to the UMass 33Similar
Q1 13:22
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+7
21.2%
Tyler Murphy pass complete to Charlie Callinan for 7 yds to the UMass 26Similar
Q1 13:22
3RD & 2
OPP 26
-10
21.2%
Myles Willis rush for 6 yards to the UMASS20 (Trey Dudley-Giles), PENALTY BC holding (Tyler Rouse) 10 yards to the UMASS36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:22
3RD & 12
OPP 36
+7
21.3%
Tyler Murphy run for 7 yds to the UMass 29Similar
Q1 13:22
4TH & 5
OPP 29
0
21.3%
Tyler Murphy pass incomplete to Charlie CallinanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q1 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
24.2%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Alex KenneySimilar
Q1 7:34
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+3
24.2%
Jamal Wilson run for 3 yds to the UMass 32Similar
Q1 7:34
3RD & 7
OWN 32
+10
24.0%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Jamal Wilson for 10 yds to the UMass 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+13
24.6%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for 13 yds to the BC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
24.8%
Jamal Wilson run for 3 yds to the BC 42Similar
Q1 7:34
2ND & 7
OPP 42
-1
24.8%
Jamal Wilson run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 43Similar
Q1 7:34
3RD & 8
OPP 43
-8
24.6%
Blake Frohnapfel sacked by Josh Keyes for a loss of 8 yards to the UMass 49Similar
Q1 7:34
4TH & 16
OWN 49
0
23.9%
Brian McDonald punt for 49 yds, downed at the BC 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 4FG
12 plays · 71 yds · 4:5974% → 73%
Q1 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+8
25.9%
Myles Willis run for 8 yds to the BC 10Similar
Q1 4:20
2ND & 2
OWN 10
-1
25.8%
Myles Willis run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 9Similar
Q1 3:16
3RD & 3
OWN 9
+31
27.3%
Tyler Murphy run for 31 yds to the BC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
26.0%
Myles Willis run for 9 yds to the BC 49Similar
Q1 3:16
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+4
25.7%
Tyler Rouse run for 4 yds to the UMass 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:16
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+13
25.6%
Tyler Rouse run for 13 yds to the UMass 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:16
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
25.4%
Tyler Murphy pass complete to Sherman Alston for 6 yds to the UMass 28Similar
Q1 3:16
2ND & 4
OPP 28
-10
25.3%
Tyler Rouse rush for 15 yards to the UMASS13 (Trey Dudley-Giles), PENALTY BC holding (Seth Betancourt) 10 yards to the UMASS38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:16
2ND & 14
OPP 38
+10
26.0%
Tyler Rouse run for 10 yds to the UMass 28Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 28
+1
26.8%
Tyler Murphy run for 1 yd to the UMass 27Similar
Q2 14:21
4TH & 3
OPP 27
+44
26.7%
Alex Howell 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q2 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
27.9%
J.T. Blyden run for 5 yds to the UMass 41Similar
Q2 14:13
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+2
28.8%
J.T. Blyden run for 2 yds to the UMass 43Similar
Q2 14:13
3RD & 3
OWN 43
0
28.4%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Rodney MillsSimilar
Q2 14:13
4TH & 3
OWN 43
0
28.0%
Brian McDonald punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BC 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 6FG
16 plays · 72 yds · 7:2372% → 75%
Q2 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+7
27.6%
Myles Willis run for 7 yds to the BC 24Similar
Q2 12:52
2ND & 3
OWN 24
+14
27.3%
Tyler Murphy pass complete to Dan Crimmins for 14 yds to the BC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
26.8%
Tyler Rouse run for no gain to the BC 38Similar
Q2 12:52
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+9
26.9%
Tyler Rouse run for 9 yds to the BC 47Similar
Q2 12:52
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+9
26.7%
Myles Willis run for 9 yds to the UMass 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:52
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
26.3%
Myles Willis run for 5 yds to the UMass 39Similar
Q2 12:52
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+4
26.3%
Tyler Murphy pass complete to Bobby Wolford for 4 yds to the UMass 35Similar
Q2 12:52
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+8
26.3%
Tyler Rouse run for 8 yds to the UMass 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:52
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
25.9%
Myles Willis run for 2 yds to the UMass 25Similar
Q2 12:52
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+1
25.9%
Tyler Murphy run for 1 yd to the UMass 24Similar
Q2 12:52
3RD & 7
OPP 24
+12
26.5%
Tyler Murphy run for 12 yds to the UMass 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:52
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
25.9%
Tyler Rouse run for 2 yds to the UMass 10Similar
Q2 12:52
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+4
25.9%
Myles Willis run for 4 yds to the UMass 6Similar
Q2 12:52
3RD & 4
OPP 6
-5
26.4%
BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, false start (Seth Betancourt) to the UMass 11Similar
Q2 12:52
3RD & 9
OPP 11
0
26.5%
Tyler Murphy pass incomplete to N/A, broken up by Joe ColtonSimilar
Q2 5:29
4TH & 9
OPP 11
+28
24.8%
Joey Launceford 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 32 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
Q2 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
27.0%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Marken Michel for 6 yds to the UMass 31Similar
Q2 5:29
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+6
28.0%
Jamal Wilson run for 6 yds to the UMass 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+20
27.5%
Jamal Wilson run for 5 yds to the BC 42 for a 1ST down BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, personal foul (Dominique Williams) to the BC 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:29
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
29.3%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Tajae SharpeSimilar
Q2 5:29
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
29.1%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Alex KenneySimilar
Q2 5:29
3RD & 10
OPP 43
0
28.6%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Marken MichelSimilar
Q2 5:29
4TH & 10
OPP 43
0
27.1%
Brian McDonald punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 8INT
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q2 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
25.7%
Myles Willis run for 4 yds to the BC 24Similar
Q2 3:47
2ND & 6
OWN 24
0
25.2%
Tyler Rouse run for no gain to the BC 24Similar
Q2 3:47
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+20
25.9%
Tyler Murphy pass intercepted Randall Jette return for 20 yds to the BC 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 9MISSED FG
5 plays · -11 yds · 1:0232% → 25%
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-15
31.6%
Blake Frohnapfel sacked by Justin Simmons for a loss of 15 yards to the BC 34 MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, intentional grounding (Blake Frohnapfel) to the BC 34Similar
Q2 2:20
2ND & 25
OPP 34
0
30.1%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Jamal WilsonSimilar
Q2 2:20
3RD & 25
OPP 34
+4
28.6%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Jamal Wilson for 4 yds to the BC 30Similar
Q2 1:18
4TH & 21
OPP 30
+47
25.1%
Blake Lucas 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 10MISSED FG
14 plays · 43 yds · 1:1876% → 79%
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
24.5%
Tyler Murphy pass complete to Dan Crimmins for 8 yds to the BC 38Similar
Q2 1:18
2ND & 2
OWN 38
0
23.3%
Tyler Murphy pass incomplete to Dan CrimminsSimilar
Q2 1:18
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+9
23.7%
Tyler Murphy run for 9 yds to the BC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-5
23.2%
BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, false start (Seth Betancourt) to the BC 42Similar
Q2 0:53
1ST & 15
OWN 42
+13
25.1%
Tyler Murphy run for 13 yds to the UMass 45Similar
Q2 0:53
2ND & 2
OPP 45
0
23.0%
Tyler Murphy pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 0:25
3RD & 2
OPP 45
0
22.8%
Tyler Murphy pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 0:25
4TH & 2
OPP 45
+7
23.8%
Tyler Murphy pass complete to Dan Crimmins for 7 yds to the UMass 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
22.1%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:25
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+11
22.2%
Tyler Murphy pass complete to Tyler Rouse for 11 yds to the UMass 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+44
21.0%
Alex Howell 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 11TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 6:0675% → 86%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
25.3%
Tyler Rouse run for 2 yds to the BC 27Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+8
25.2%
Tyler Rouse run for 8 yds to the BC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
24.8%
Tyler Murphy run for 9 yds to the BC 44Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+19
23.6%
Tyler Murphy pass complete to Josh Bordner for 19 yds to the UMass 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+14
23.4%
Sherman Alston run for 14 yds to the UMass 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+7
23.1%
Jon Hilliman run for 7 yds to the UMass 16Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 3
OPP 16
-1
23.1%
Myles Willis run for a loss of 1 yard to the UMass 17Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 4
OPP 17
+3
23.5%
Tyler Rouse run for 3 yds to the UMass 14Similar
Q3 14:55
4TH & 1
OPP 14
+2
24.8%
Tyler Rouse run for 2 yds to the UMass 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
23.1%
Tyler Rouse run for 5 yds to the UMass 7Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 5
OPP 7
-3
23.1%
Myles Willis run for a loss of 3 yards to the UMass 10Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 8
OPP 10
+8
23.5%
Murphy,T pass incomplete to Charlie Callinan, PENALTY UMASS pass interference (Porter, J.) 8 yards to the UMASS2, 1ST DOWN BC, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
23.1%
Myles Willis run for 1 yd to the UMass 1Similar
Q3 8:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
13.6%
Myles Willis run for 1 yd for a TD, (Joey Launceford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 0:0018% → 17%
Q3 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
18.0%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Rodney Mills, broken up by Justin SimmonsSimilar
Q3 8:49
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
17.8%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Rodney MillsSimilar
Q3 8:49
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-7
17.2%
Blake Frohnapfel sacked by Brian Mihalik for a loss of 7 yards to the UMass 18Similar
Q3 8:49
4TH & 17
OWN 18
0
17.0%
Brian McDonald punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BC 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 13TD
10 plays · 52 yds · 4:4186% → 97%
Q3 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+9
13.7%
Tyler Murphy pass complete to Josh Bordner for 9 yds to the UMass 43Similar
Q3 7:51
2ND & 1
OPP 43
0
13.5%
Tyler Murphy pass incomplete to Bobby Wolford, broken up by Jovan Santos-KnoxSimilar
Q3 7:51
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+5
13.7%
Jon Hilliman run for 5 yds to the UMass 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:51
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+8
13.6%
Tyler Rouse run for 8 yds to the UMass 30Similar
Q3 7:51
2ND & 2
OPP 30
+16
13.3%
Sherman Alston run for 16 yds to the UMass 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:51
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
13.3%
Tyler Rouse run for 2 yds to the UMass 12Similar
Q3 7:51
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+11
13.3%
Tyler Murphy run for 11 yds to the UMass 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
13.2%
Tyler Rouse run for no gain to the UMass 1Similar
Q3 7:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
13.3%
Tyler Rouse run for no gain to the UMass 1Similar
Q3 3:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
2.9%
Tyler Murphy run for 1 yd for a TD, (Joey Launceford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 14TD
5 plays · 77 yds · 1:355% → 14%
Q3 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-10
4.6%
Blake Frohnapfel rush for 2 yards to the UMASS25 (Malachi Moore), PENALTY UMASS holding (Jamal Wilson) 10 yards to the UMASS13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:04
1ST & 20
OWN 13
+3
4.5%
J.T. Blyden run for 3 yds to the UMass 16Similar
Q3 3:04
2ND & 17
OWN 16
+7
4.5%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to J.T. Blyden for 7 yds to the UMass 23Similar
Q3 1:29
3RD & 10
OWN 23
+77
14.3%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for 77 yds for a TD, (Blake Lucas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 15TD
5 plays · 65 yds · 1:2889% → 98%
Q3 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
10.9%
Tyler Murphy pass complete to Dan Crimmins for 10 yds to the BC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
10.1%
Jon Hilliman run for 3 yds to the BC 48Similar
Q3 1:20
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+9
10.1%
Jon Hilliman run for 9 yds to the UMass 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+43
2.5%
Tyler Murphy pass complete to Josh Bordner for 43 yds for a TD, (Joey Launceford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 16INT
8 plays · 27 yds · 1:424% → 3%
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
3.7%
Blake Frohnapfel run for 4 yds to the UMass 29Similar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+14
3.7%
J.T. Blyden run for 14 yds to the UMass 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
3.9%
J.T. Blyden run for 4 yds to the UMass 47Similar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 6
OWN 47
0
3.9%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Tajae Sharpe, broken up by John JohnsonSimilar
Q4 13:10
3RD & 6
OWN 47
+5
3.1%
Blake Frohnapfel run for 5 yds to the BC 48Similar
Q4 13:10
4TH & 1
OPP 48
+20
3.2%
Blake Frohnapfel pass intercepted Justin Simmons return for 20 yds to the UMass 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 17FG
10 plays · 31 yds · 4:5498% → 99%
Q4 12:29
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
2.0%
Jon Hilliman run for 3 yds to the UMass 32Similar
Q4 12:29
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+9
1.9%
Jon Hilliman run for 9 yds to the UMass 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:29
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
2.0%
Tyler Rouse run for no gain to the UMass 23Similar
Q4 12:29
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+5
2.0%
Tyler Murphy pass complete to Charlie Callinan for 5 yds to the UMass 18Similar
Q4 12:29
3RD & 5
OPP 18
+11
2.0%
Tyler Murphy pass complete to Dan Crimmins for 11 yds to the UMass 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-3
2.0%
Myles Willis run for a loss of 3 yards to the UMass 10Similar
Q4 12:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
2.0%
Tyler Murphy pass complete to Dan Crimmins for 1 yd to the UMass 9Similar
Q4 8:18
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
0.9%
Tyler Murphy run for 5 yds to the UMass 4Similar
Q4 7:35
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
0.7%
Joey Launceford 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+9
1.5%
J.T. Blyden run for 4 yds to the UMass 33 BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, sideline interference (5 Yards) to the UMass 38Similar
Q4 7:29
2ND & 1
OWN 38
+6
1.6%
J.T. Blyden run for 6 yds to the UMass 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
1.6%
J.T. Blyden run for no gain to the UMass 44Similar
Q4 7:29
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+1
1.6%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Jalen Williams for 1 yd to the UMass 45Similar
Q4 7:29
3RD & 9
OWN 45
0
1.5%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:29
4TH & 9
OWN 45
0
1.5%
Brian McDonald punt for 38 yds , Bryce Jones returns for no gain to the BC 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 0:0099% → 100%
Q4 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-2
0.6%
Jon Hilliman run for a loss of 2 yards to the BC 15Similar
Q4 5:14
2ND & 12
OWN 15
+4
0.7%
Jon Hilliman run for 4 yds to the BC 19Similar
Q4 5:14
3RD & 8
OWN 19
+10
0.6%
Tyler Murphy pass complete to Josh Bordner for 10 yds to the BC 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
0.6%
Jon Hilliman run for 5 yds to the BC 34Similar
Q4 5:14
2ND & 5
OWN 34
0
0.6%
Marcus Outlow run for no gain to the BC 34Similar
Q4 5:14
3RD & 5
OWN 34
+3
0.6%
Marcus Outlow run for 3 yds to the BC 37Similar
Q4 5:14
4TH & 2
OWN 37
0
0.5%
Alex Howell punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Trey Dudley-Giles at the UMass 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 20END OF GAME
3 plays · 15 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
0.7%
J.T. Blyden run for 5 yds to the UMass 15Similar
Q4 1:21
2ND & 5
OWN 15
+2
0.7%
Lorenzo Woodley run for 2 yds to the UMass 17Similar
Q4 1:21
3RD & 3
OWN 17
+8
0.7%
Lorenzo Woodley run for 8 yds to the UMass 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:10
Tyler Murphy run for 1 yd for a TD, (Joey Launceford KICK)
-10.4
TD · Q3 1:29
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for 77 yds for a TD, (Blake Lucas KICK)
+9.7
TD · Q3 8:49
Myles Willis run for 1 yd for a TD, (Joey Launceford KICK)
-9.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com