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Win probability · TULN
modelTULN aheadTEM aheadconfidence bandkey playTULN scoreTEM score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 12:08 · Austin Jones 35 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- KEY PLAY · Q3 3:00: Sherman Badie run for 1 yd to the Tulan 21 — TULN win probability +10.0 pts (now 52%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 10:02: P.J. Walker pass complete to Kenneth Harper for 7 yds to the Tulan 18 — TEM win probability +8.8 pts (now 57%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
- TD · Q4 8:39: P.J. Walker pass complete to Romond Deloatch for 8 yds for a TD, (Tyler Mayes KICK) — TEM win probability +27.1 pts (now 84%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 2:11: Timeout TEMPLE, clock 02:11 — TULN win probability +9.1 pts (now 24%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 1:12: Tanner Lee pass complete to Charles Jones for 1 yd to the Temp 19 — TULN win probability +8.9 pts (now 25%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
TULN made the numbers' call on 10 of 14TEM made the numbers' call on 10 of 12
- Q1 13:50TEM 4th & 3 at TEM 32, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 57.3% before the snapGo for it57.3%−<0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call57.4%average punt
- Q1 10:35TULN 4th & 8 at TEM 32, tiedClose callWent for it · 43.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call43.7%−<0.134% to convertField goal43.7%51% to makePunt43.6%−0.1average punt
- Q1 8:27TEM 4th & 6 at TEM 46, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 55.8% before the snapGo for it55.9%−0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call55.9%average punt
- Q1 7:08TULN 4th & 7 at TULN 25, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 43.9% before the snapGo for it43.9%−0.235% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call44.0%average punt
- Q1 6:11TEM 4th & 8 at TEM 36, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 54.9% before the snapGo for it54.8%−0.234% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call55.1%average punt
- Q1 4:00TULN 4th & 1 at TEM 46, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call45.9%70% to convertField goal44.8%−1.123% to makePunt45.2%−0.6average punt
- Q1 0:15TULN 4th & 10 at TEM 10, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 47.0% before the snapGo for it46.4%−0.424% to convertField goalTheir call46.8%88% to makePunt44.5%−2.3average punt
- Q2 12:08TEM 4th & 17 at TULN 17, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 50.2% before the snapGo for it48.6%−1.513% to convertField goalTheir call50.0%80% to makePunt46.3%−3.8average punt
- Q2 11:05TULN 4th & 10 at TULN 20, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.7% before the snapGo for it46.7%−0.727% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call47.4%average punt
- Q2 7:53TEM 4th & 8 at TULN 32, down 3Close callWent for it · 49.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call49.2%−0.134% to convertField goal49.3%51% to makePunt48.2%−1.1average punt
- Q2 6:25TULN 4th & 3 at TULN 39, up 3Close callPunted · 51.3% before the snapGo for it51.2%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call50.6%−0.6average punt
- Q2 2:25TEM 4th & 6 at TULN 19, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 47.9% before the snapGo for it46.9%−0.238% to convertField goalTheir call47.1%77% to makePunt41.4%−5.8average punt
- Q2 1:47TULN 4th & 2 at TULN 23, tiedClose callPunted · 47.9% before the snapGo for it47.6%56% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call47.3%−0.3average punt
- Q2 0:20TEM 4th & 9 at TULN 21, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.4% before the snapGo for it52.6%−2.230% to convertField goalTheir call54.7%74% to makePunt49.5%−5.3average punt
- Q3 11:00TULN 4th & 8 at TEM 21, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 52.6% before the snapGo for it50.9%−1.232% to convertField goalTheir call52.1%74% to makePunt43.6%−8.5average punt
- Q3 7:41TEM 4th & 15 at TEM 37, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 48.5% before the snapGo for it46.2%−3.917% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call50.1%average punt
- Q3 6:42TULN 4th & 9 at TULN 30, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 50.0% before the snapGo for it49.5%−1.831% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call51.3%average punt
- Q3 4:42TEM 4th & 2 at TEM 49, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 52.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call53.7%56% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt51.4%−2.3average punt
- Q3 1:44TEM 4th & 23 at TULN 47, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 48.9% before the snapGo for it45.9%−5.97% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call51.7%average punt
- Q4 14:52TULN 4th & 11 at TULN 12, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 50.7% before the snapGo for it48.6%−4.325% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call52.9%average punt
- Q4 12:37TEM 4th & 16 at TULN 39, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 48.2% before the snapGo for it46.2%−2.816% to convertField goal48.7%−0.436% to makePuntTheir call49.1%average punt
- Q4 10:28TULN 4th & 7 at TULN 4, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 50.7% before the snapGo for it45.2%−5.032% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call50.1%average punt
- Q4 7:02TULN 4th & 5 at TULN 30, down 7Close callPunted · 21.2% before the snapGo for it19.7%41% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call19.7%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 3:09TEM 4th & 7 at TEM 47, up 7Close callPunted · 87.2% before the snapGo for it86.9%37% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call86.8%−0.1average punt
- Q4 0:55TULN 4th & 1 at TEM 11, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call20.9%71% to convertField goal11.7%−9.387% to makePunt8.5%−12.4average punt
- Q4 0:36TULN 4th & 16 at TEM 16, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call15.0%14% to convertField goal11.3%−3.781% to makePunt8.7%−6.3average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TEM made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q4 8:39TEM Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call72.7%97% to makeGo for two72.3%−0.445% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartTEMDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 0:5461% → 61%
Q1 13:50
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
39.3%
Hassan Dixon punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Teddy Veal at the Tulan 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 2DOWNS9 plays · 50 yds · 2:4539% → 41%
TEMDrive 3PUNT6 plays · 21 yds · 1:5860% → 59%
Q1 10:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+12
40.3%
P.J. Walker pass complete to Brandon Shippen for 12 yds to the Temp 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
40.2%
P.J. Walker pass complete to Kenneth Harper for 4 yds to the Temp 46Similar
Q1 8:27
4TH & 6
OWN 46
+4
41.0%
Hassan Dixon punt for 36 yds , Teddy Veal returns for 4 yds to the Tulan 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 4PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 1:0741% → 41%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 5PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 0:4459% → 58%
Q1 6:11
4TH & 8
OWN 36
0
42.0%
Hassan Dixon punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Teddy Veal at the Tulan 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 6FG16 plays · 57 yds · 5:4542% → 45%
Q1 5:40
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+11
42.0%
Nick Montana pass complete to Dontrell Hilliard for 11 yds to the Tulan 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:34
2ND & 12
OPP 45
+35
44.0%
Nick Montana pass complete to Teddy Veal for 25 yds to the Temp 20 for a 1ST down TEMPLE Penalty, Personal Foul (10 Yards) to the Temp 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+8
45.1%
Lazedrick Thompson run for 6 yds to the Temp 4 for a 1ST down TEMPLE Penalty, Personal Foul (2 Yards) to the Temp 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 16
+6
45.2%
Nick Montana pass complete to Charles Jones for 6 yds to the Temp 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 7MISSED FG7 plays · 58 yds · 2:5255% → 53%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
45.0%
P.J. Walker run for no gain to the Temp 18 P.J. Walker fumbled, recovered by Temp Jahad ThomasSimilar
Q2 14:30
2ND & 17
OWN 18
+75
45.5%
P.J. Walker pass complete to Jahad Thomas for 75 yds to the Tulan 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 15
-2
44.9%
P.J. Walker pass complete to Kenneth Harper for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulan 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 8PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:5946% → 45%
TEMDrive 9DOWNS6 plays · 25 yds · 2:3755% → 53%
TULNDrive 10PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 0:5549% → 49%
TEMDrive 11FG9 plays · 48 yds · 3:5152% → 57%
Q2 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+19
47.9%
P.J. Walker pass complete to Jahad Thomas for 19 yds to the Tulan 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:45
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+12
46.4%
P.J. Walker pass complete to Kenneth Harper for 12 yds to the Tulan 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+13
46.2%
P.J. Walker pass complete to John Christopher for 13 yds to the Tulan 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:35
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
45.2%
P.J. Walker pass complete to Jamie Gilmore for 1 yd to the Tulan 22Similar
Q2 3:50
2ND & 9
OPP 22
-15
45.3%
Walker, P.J. pass complete to Shippen, Brandon for 10 yards to the TULANE12, PENALTY TEMPLE pass interference (Fitzpatrick, Jalen) 15 yards to the TULANE37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:20
2ND & 24
OPP 37
+19
47.9%
P.J. Walker pass complete to Jamie Gilmore for 19 yds to the Tulan 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 12PUNT7 plays · 8 yds · 0:2847% → 47%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 13MISSED FG8 plays · 29 yds · 1:1958% → 56%
TULNDrive 14END OF HALF2 plays · -1 yds · 0:1450% → 50%
TULNDrive 15MISSED FG12 plays · 57 yds · 3:5549% → 51%
Q3 14:49
1ST & 15
OWN 17
+11
48.8%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Trey Scott for 11 yds to the Tulan 28Similar
Q3 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+10
51.6%
TEMPLE Penalty, Defensive Holding (Sean Chandler) to the Temp 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:21
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+16
52.9%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Devon Breaux for 16 yds to the Temp 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 16PUNT8 plays · 16 yds · 2:5953% → 50%
Q3 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-7
46.6%
P.J. Walker sacked by Tyler Gilbert for a loss of 7 yards to the Temp 14Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 17
OWN 14
+18
47.5%
P.J. Walker pass complete to Romond Deloatch for 18 yds to the Temp 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:09
1ST & 5
OWN 37
+5
44.8%
P.J. Walker pass complete to Jalen Fitzpatrick for 5 yds to the Temp 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:41
4TH & 15
OWN 37
+1
49.8%
Chris Smith punt for 35 yds , Teddy Veal returns for 1 yd to the Tulan 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 17PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 0:4851% → 49%
Q3 6:42
4TH & 9
OWN 30
0
48.5%
Peter Picerelli punt for 44 yds , John Christopher returns for no gain to the Temp 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 18INT9 plays · 59 yds · 3:1752% → 58%
TULNDrive 19INT3 plays · 1 yds · 0:1652% → 50%
TEMDrive 20PUNT5 plays · -13 yds · 0:4658% → 50%
TULNDrive 21PUNT4 plays · -2 yds · 1:0852% → 50%
Q3 0:15
2ND & 11
OWN 12
-3
52.2%
Tanner Lee sacked by Stephaun Marshall for a loss of 3 yards to the Tulan 9Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 14
OWN 9
+3
49.9%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Dontrell Hilliard for 3 yds to the Tulan 12Similar
Q4 14:52
4TH & 11
OWN 12
0
49.6%
Peter Picerelli punt for 41 yds, fair catch by John Christopher at the Temp 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 22PUNT8 plays · 14 yds · 1:5355% → 49%
Q4 14:00
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+16
44.1%
P.J. Walker pass complete to John Christopher for 16 yds to the Tulan 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 23PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 1:4755% → 52%
Q4 10:28
4TH & 7
OWN 4
+14
52.1%
Peter Picerelli punt for 35 yds , John Christopher returns for 14 yds to the Tulan 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 24TD5 plays · 25 yds · 1:2357% → 84%
TULNDrive 25PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 1:1826% → 21%
Q4 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
25.6%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Sherman Badie for 4 yds to the Tulan 29Similar
Q4 8:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+1
25.7%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Sherman Badie for 1 yd to the Tulan 30Similar
Q4 7:02
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
21.0%
Peter Picerelli punt for 40 yds, fair catch by John Christopher at the Temp 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 26PUNT6 plays · 17 yds · 3:3681% → 87%
TULNDrive 27DOWNS17 plays · 69 yds · 2:2920% → 9%
Q4 2:45
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+9
19.2%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Terren Encalade for 9 yds to the Tulan 18Similar
Q4 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-9
24.1%
Tanner Lee sacked by Hershey Walton for a loss of 9 yards to the Temp 43Similar
Q4 1:20
2ND & 19
OPP 43
+23
16.4%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Terren Encalade for 23 yds to the Temp 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
25.3%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Charles Jones for 1 yd to the Temp 19Similar
Q4 1:00
3RD & 9
OPP 19
+8
17.3%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Dontrell Hilliard for 8 yds to the Temp 11Similar
Q4 0:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-7
24.0%
Tanner Lee sacked by Praise Martin-Oguike for a loss of 7 yards to the Temp 16Similar
Q4 0:36
4TH & GOAL
OPP 16
-6
8.8%
Tanner Lee sacked by Avery Williams for a loss of 6 yards to the Temp 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 28END OF GAME1 play · -1 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 8:39
P.J. Walker pass complete to Romond Deloatch for 8 yds for a TD, (Tyler Mayes KICK)
-27.1
KEY PLAY · Q3 3:00
Sherman Badie run for 1 yd to the Tulan 21
+10
KEY PLAY · Q4 2:11
Timeout TEMPLE, clock 02:11
+9.1