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HOU

Houston 31 at Cincinnati 38

CIN
2014 · Week 15 · Dec 6, 2014 · Paul Brown Stadium
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Win probability · CIN
modelCIN aheadHOU aheadconfidence bandkey playCIN scoreHOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 2:24 · Logan Piper punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Shaq Washington at the Cincy 27
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+28.5+14.30−14.3−28.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 138Home team on offense+12.2Pregame prior+4.4Garbage-time factor+2.6Score differential+5.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.9Blowout margin+1.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:33: Gunner Kiel pass complete to Shaq Washington for 12 yds for a TD, (Andrew Gantz KICK) — CIN win probability +11.0 pts (now 80%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:54: Mike Boone run for 1 yd for a TD, (Andrew Gantz KICK) — CIN win probability +10.1 pts (now 91%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:43: Greg Ward Jr. run for 40 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bullard KICK) — HOU win probability +11.0 pts (now 22%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 0:15: Mike Boone run for 6 yds for a TD, (Andrew Gantz KICK) — CIN win probability +9.7 pts (now 97%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:27: Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for 26 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bullard KICK) — HOU win probability +11.8 pts (now 20%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CIN made the numbers' call on 5 of 6HOU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 13:09HOU 4th & 10 at HOU 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.9%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:06CIN 4th & 11 at CIN 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.7%−0.3
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:24HOU 4th & 1 at HOU 24, tied
    Close callPunted · 32.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.0%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:06CIN 4th & 21 at CIN 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.9%−0.9
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:20HOU 4th & 1 at CIN 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    33.5%−1.3
    36% to make
    Punt
    33.6%−1.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:19HOU 4th & 5 at CIN 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.9%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    34.6%−0.2
    49% to make
    Punt
    34.2%−0.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:45CIN 4th & 6 at CIN 28, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.2%−0.5
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:45HOU 4th & 5 at CIN 9, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 27.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.8%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.9%
    89% to make
    Punt
    21.2%−5.7
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:20CIN 4th & 7 at HOU 26, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 84.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.6%−0.3
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.8%
    64% to make
    Punt
    80.9%−3.9
    average punt
  10. Q3 2:24HOU 4th & 5 at HOU 42, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.4%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.7%
    average punt
  11. Q4 8:04CIN 4th & 12 at HOU 23, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 91.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.0%−1.1
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.1%
    70% to make
    Punt
    87.1%−3.9
    average punt
  12. Q4 2:03CIN 4th & 5 at HOU 35, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 93.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.6%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    93.2%−0.4
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    92.5%−1.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 0:00HOU 4th & 1 at CIN 11, down 7
    Numbers favored field goal by 6.2 ptsWent for it · 15.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.8%−6.2
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    22.9%
    87% to make
    Punt
    7.8%−15.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CIN made the numbers' call on 5 of 5HOU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 10:01CIN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:14HOU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:13CIN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:33CIN Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:54CIN Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 5:43HOU Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 0:15CIN Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 14:49HOU Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 5:27HOU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.7%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
HOUDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 1:4135% → 35%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-10
65.4%
Ward Jr., Greg pass complete to Farrow, Kenneth for 3 yards to the HOUSTON38, PENALTY HOUSTON illegal block (Redman, Bryce) 10 yards to the HOUSTON25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:20
1ST & 20
OWN 25
+10
65.4%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Wayne Beadle for 10 yds to the Houst 35Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
65.3%
Kenneth Farrow run for no gain to the Houst 35Similar
Q1 13:16
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
65.3%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Demarcus AyersSimilar
Q1 13:09
4TH & 10
OWN 35
0
65.4%
Logan Piper punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Shaq Washington at the Cincy 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 2TD
9 plays · 72 yds · 3:0265% → 67%
Q1 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+16
65.3%
Rod Moore run for 16 yds to the Cincy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+12
65.5%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Shaq Washington for 12 yds to the Houst 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:22
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-3
65.6%
Rod Moore run for a loss of 3 yards to the Houst 47Similar
Q1 11:55
2ND & 13
OPP 47
+16
65.4%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Max Morrison for 16 yds to the Houst 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:36
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+12
65.7%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Chris Moore for 12 yds to the Houst 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
65.7%
Rod Moore run for 1 yd to the Houst 18Similar
Q1 10:39
2ND & 9
OPP 18
+12
65.7%
Kiel, Gunner pass incomplete to Moore, Chris, PENALTY HOUSTON pass interference (Jackson, William) 12 yards to the HOUSTON6, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CINCINNATI. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
65.7%
Mike Boone run for 1 yd to the Houst 5Similar
Q1 10:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
67.3%
Mike Boone run for 5 yds for a TD, (Andrew Gantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 3TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:4133% → 37%
Q1 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
66.6%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Deontay Greenberry, broken up by Leviticus PayneSimilar
Q1 9:35
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
66.7%
Ryan Jackson run for 1 yd to the Houst 26Similar
Q1 9:16
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+10
67.1%
Ward Jr., Greg pass incomplete to Greenberry, Deontay, PENALTY CINCINNATI pass interference (Jones, Andre) 10 yards to the HOUSTON36, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN HOUSTON. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+35
66.8%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Wayne Beadle for 35 yds to the Cincy 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
66.0%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Ryan Jackson for 1 yd to the Cincy 28Similar
Q1 8:10
2ND & 9
OPP 28
-1
66.2%
Greg Ward Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 29Similar
Q1 7:40
3RD & 10
OPP 29
+11
66.6%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for 11 yds to the Cincy 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:06
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
66.2%
Ryan Jackson run for 2 yds to the Cincy 16Similar
Q1 6:36
2ND & 8
OPP 16
+7
66.3%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Deontay Greenberry for 7 yds to the Cincy 9Similar
Q1 6:14
3RD & 1
OPP 9
+9
63.5%
Kenneth Farrow run for 9 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bullard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 1:5865% → 64%
Q1 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
64.5%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Rod Moore, broken up by Joey MbuSimilar
Q1 5:59
2ND & 10
OWN 24
0
64.4%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Alex ChisumSimilar
Q1 5:53
3RD & 10
OWN 24
+17
64.0%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Alex Chisum for 17 yds to the Cincy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
65.0%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Mekale McKay, broken up by Turon WalkerSimilar
Q1 5:20
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+3
64.8%
Rod Moore run for 3 yds to the Cincy 44Similar
Q1 4:30
3RD & 7
OWN 44
-4
64.7%
Gunner Kiel sacked by Tyus Bowser for a loss of 4 yards to the Cincy 40Similar
Q1 4:06
4TH & 11
OWN 40
0
63.7%
Sam Geraci punt for 45 yds, downed at the Houst 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:3636% → 35%
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
64.1%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Deontay GreenberrySimilar
Q1 3:57
2ND & 10
OWN 15
0
64.2%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Deontay GreenberrySimilar
Q1 3:45
3RD & 10
OWN 15
+9
64.6%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 9 yds to the Houst 24Similar
Q1 3:24
4TH & 1
OWN 24
0
64.7%
Logan Piper punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Shaq Washington at the Cincy 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -11 yds · 1:1465% → 63%
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
65.3%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Mekale McKaySimilar
Q1 2:55
2ND & 10
OWN 46
-5
64.9%
Gunner Kiel rush for a loss of 5 yards to the Cincy 41Similar
Q1 2:34
3RD & 15
OWN 41
-6
64.0%
Gunner Kiel sacked by B.J. Singleton for a loss of 6 yards to the Cincy 35Similar
Q1 2:06
4TH & 21
OWN 35
0
63.4%
Sam Geraci punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Demarcus Ayers at the Houst 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 7DOWNS
13 plays · 42 yds · 4:3737% → 38%
Q1 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
63.4%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Wayne Beadle for 8 yds to the Houst 33Similar
Q1 1:29
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+4
62.6%
Kenneth Farrow run for 4 yds to the Houst 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
62.8%
Kenneth Farrow run for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 36Similar
Q1 0:41
2ND & 11
OWN 36
0
63.1%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Steven Dunbar, broken up by Howard WilderSimilar
Q1 0:28
3RD & 11
OWN 36
+16
63.5%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Deontay Greenberry for 16 yds to the Cincy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
61.5%
Kenneth Farrow run for 3 yds to the Cincy 45Similar
Q2 14:17
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+5
61.4%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Wayne Beadle for 5 yds to the Cincy 40Similar
Q2 13:40
3RD & 2
OPP 40
+1
61.3%
Kenneth Farrow run for 1 yd to the Cincy 39Similar
Q2 13:20
4TH & 1
OPP 39
+1
62.2%
Kenneth Farrow run for 1 yd to the Cincy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
61.1%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Deontay GreenberrySimilar
Q2 12:51
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+5
61.1%
Kenneth Farrow run for 5 yds to the Cincy 33Similar
Q2 12:26
3RD & 5
OPP 33
0
61.2%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Wayne Beadle, broken up by Jeff LucSimilar
Q2 12:19
4TH & 5
OPP 33
0
62.1%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Deontay GreenberrySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 8TD
9 plays · 67 yds · 2:5664% → 72%
Q2 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
64.1%
Mike Boone run for 4 yds to the Cincy 37Similar
Q2 11:49
2ND & 6
OWN 37
0
64.9%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Shaq WashingtonSimilar
Q2 11:41
3RD & 6
OWN 37
+13
63.8%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Nate Cole for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:19
1ST & 10
50
+6
65.5%
Mike Boone run for 6 yds to the Houst 44Similar
Q2 11:00
2ND & 4
OPP 44
0
65.7%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Chris MooreSimilar
Q2 10:51
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+16
65.3%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Max Morrison for 16 yds to the Houst 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+16
66.1%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Shaq Washington for 16 yds to the Houst 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:53
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
66.3%
Mike Boone run for 4 yds to the Houst 8Similar
Q2 9:13
2ND & 6
OPP 8
+8
72.1%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Alex Chisum for 8 yds for a TD, (Andrew Gantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 9INT
8 plays · 47 yds · 2:4030% → 33%
Q2 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
69.9%
Ryan Jackson run for 4 yds to the Houst 29Similar
Q2 8:40
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
69.6%
Ryan Jackson run for no gain to the Houst 29Similar
Q2 8:03
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+31
71.0%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Deontay Greenberry for 31 yds to the Cincy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:31
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
68.7%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Deontay Greenberry for 3 yds to the Cincy 37Similar
Q2 7:07
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+5
68.7%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Deontay Greenberry for 5 yds to the Cincy 32Similar
Q2 6:38
3RD & 2
OPP 32
+4
68.6%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 4 yds to the Cincy 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:21
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
67.5%
Greg Ward Jr. pass intercepted Aaron Brown return for no gain to the Cincy 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 1:2772% → 71%
Q2 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+8
71.7%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Mekale McKay for 8 yds to the Cincy 21Similar
Q2 5:54
2ND & 2
OWN 21
+3
72.1%
Rod Moore run for 3 yds to the Cincy 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
72.1%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Nate ColeSimilar
Q2 5:15
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+4
71.9%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Casey Gladney for 4 yds to the Cincy 28Similar
Q2 4:53
3RD & 6
OWN 28
0
71.5%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Johnny Holton, broken up by William JacksonSimilar
Q2 4:45
4TH & 6
OWN 28
0
70.5%
Sam Geraci punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Demarcus Ayers at the Houst 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 11FG
5 plays · 63 yds · 1:4829% → 36%
Q2 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+58
71.1%
Kenneth Farrow run for 58 yds to the Cincy 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
67.7%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 1 yd to the Cincy 13Similar
Q2 3:25
2ND & 9
OPP 13
+4
67.8%
Kenneth Farrow run for 4 yds to the Cincy 9Similar
Q2 2:48
3RD & 5
OPP 9
0
68.9%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Deontay GreenberrySimilar
Q2 2:45
4TH & 5
OPP 9
+27
64.3%
Kyle Bullard 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 12TD
10 plays · 65 yds · 2:0167% → 80%
Q2 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
67.2%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Chris Moore, broken up by William JacksonSimilar
Q2 2:27
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+29
67.0%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Rod Moore for 29 yds to the Houst 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:57
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
69.4%
Rod Moore run for no gain to the Houst 36Similar
Q2 1:29
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+11
69.4%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Shaq Washington for 11 yds to the Houst 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
70.2%
Rod Moore run for 1 yd to the Houst 24Similar
Q2 1:02
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+4
70.0%
Gunner Kiel run for 4 yds to the Houst 20Similar
Q2 0:38
3RD & 5
OPP 20
+8
69.0%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Max Morrison for 8 yds to the Houst 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
80.0%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Shaq Washington for 12 yds for a TD, (Andrew Gantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 13END OF HALF
7 plays · 20 yds · 0:2523% → 22%
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
77.5%
Kenneth Farrow run for 7 yds to the Houst 32Similar
Q2 0:08
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+9
76.5%
Kenneth Farrow run for 9 yds to the Houst 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+13
78.5%
Kenneth Farrow run for 13 yds to the Cincy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-9
78.1%
Greg Ward Jr. sacked by Nick Temple for a loss of 9 yards to the Houst 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 14TD
13 plays · 80 yds · 4:5179% → 91%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
78.9%
Rod Moore run for 5 yds to the Cincy 25Similar
Q3 14:27
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+8
79.1%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Mekale McKay for 8 yds to the Cincy 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
78.1%
Rod Moore run for 4 yds to the Cincy 37Similar
Q3 13:44
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+2
78.8%
Rod Moore run for 2 yds to the Cincy 39Similar
Q3 13:00
3RD & 4
OWN 39
+22
78.9%
Munchie Legaux pass complete to Johnny Holton for 22 yds to the Houst 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:38
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
80.3%
Rod Moore run for 3 yds to the Houst 36Similar
Q3 12:09
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+7
80.6%
Rod Moore run for 7 yds to the Houst 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
80.9%
Rod Moore run for 2 yds to the Houst 27Similar
Q3 10:58
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+14
81.1%
Rod Moore run for 14 yds to the Houst 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:23
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+12
81.3%
Munchie Legaux run for 12 yds to the Houst 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
91.4%
Mike Boone run for 1 yd for a TD, (Andrew Gantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 15TD
11 plays · 83 yds · 3:5811% → 22%
Q3 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
89.1%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 4 yds to the Houst 21Similar
Q3 9:12
2ND & 6
OWN 21
+2
89.3%
Kenneth Farrow run for 2 yds to the Houst 23Similar
Q3 8:44
3RD & 4
OWN 23
+10
89.6%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Markeith Ambles for 10 yds to the Houst 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
88.9%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Deontay Greenberry for 6 yds to the Houst 39Similar
Q3 8:03
2ND & 4
OWN 39
+5
88.8%
Kenneth Farrow run for 5 yds to the Houst 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
89.3%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for 5 yds to the Houst 49Similar
Q3 7:11
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+4
89.1%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for 4 yds to the Cincy 47Similar
Q3 6:43
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+4
89.0%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for 4 yds to the Cincy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:21
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
89.2%
Kenneth Farrow run for 3 yds to the Cincy 40Similar
Q3 5:43
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+40
78.3%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 40 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bullard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 16MISSED FG
7 plays · 49 yds · 1:1582% → 83%
Q3 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+31
82.1%
Munchie Legaux pass complete to Mekale McKay for 31 yds to the Houst 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+15
83.8%
Mike Boone run for 15 yds to the Houst 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:58
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
84.3%
Mike Boone run for 3 yds to the Houst 26Similar
Q3 4:31
2ND & 7
OPP 26
0
84.4%
Munchie Legaux pass incomplete to DJ DowdySimilar
Q3 4:26
3RD & 7
OPP 26
0
83.8%
Munchie Legaux pass incomplete to Mekale McKaySimilar
Q3 4:20
4TH & 7
OPP 26
+43
82.8%
Andrew Gantz 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 1:4818% → 16%
Q3 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
82.0%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Ryan Jackson for 4 yds to the Houst 30Similar
Q3 3:53
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+4
82.6%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for 4 yds to the Houst 34Similar
Q3 3:31
3RD & 2
OWN 34
+3
82.7%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 3 yds to the Houst 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
82.5%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Markeith AmblesSimilar
Q3 3:01
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+5
82.7%
Ryan Jackson run for 5 yds to the Houst 42Similar
Q3 2:31
3RD & 5
OWN 42
0
82.3%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Deontay Greenberry, broken up by Leviticus PayneSimilar
Q3 2:24
4TH & 5
OWN 42
0
83.9%
Logan Piper punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Shaq Washington at the Cincy 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 18TD
7 plays · 73 yds · 2:0285% → 97%
Q3 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+15
84.6%
Munchie Legaux pass complete to Alex Chisum for 15 yds to the Cincy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
86.0%
Munchie Legaux pass complete to Max Morrison for 6 yds to the Cincy 48Similar
Q3 1:45
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+8
86.1%
Munchie Legaux pass complete to Max Morrison for 8 yds to the Houst 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+34
86.6%
Munchie Legaux pass complete to Nate Cole for 34 yds to the Houst 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
87.7%
Rod Moore run for 4 yds to the Houst 6Similar
Q3 0:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
97.4%
Mike Boone run for 6 yds for a TD, (Andrew Gantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 19TD
3 plays · 88 yds · 0:116% → 15%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-1
94.1%
Kenneth Farrow run for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 11Similar
Q4 14:49
2ND & 11
OWN 11
+89
85.0%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Markeith Ambles for 89 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bullard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 20FG
16 plays · 61 yds · 6:2587% → 97%
Q4 14:29
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+1
87.3%
Mike Boone run for 1 yd to the Cincy 17Similar
Q4 14:06
2ND & 9
OWN 17
+10
87.8%
Munchie Legaux pass complete to Chris Moore for 10 yds to the Cincy 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
88.0%
Mike Boone run for 4 yds to the Cincy 31Similar
Q4 13:22
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+9
88.1%
Mike Boone run for 9 yds to the Cincy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
89.1%
Munchie Legaux pass complete to Mike Boone for 7 yds to the Cincy 47Similar
Q4 12:27
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+6
89.3%
Munchie Legaux run for 6 yds to the Houst 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
89.7%
Mike Boone run for 3 yds to the Houst 44Similar
Q4 11:30
2ND & 7
OPP 44
0
89.3%
Munchie Legaux pass incomplete to Mekale McKaySimilar
Q4 11:22
3RD & 7
OPP 44
+10
89.2%
Legaux, Munchie pass incomplete to Chisum, Alex, PENALTY HOUSTON holding (Jackson, William) 10 yards to the HOUSTON34, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CINCINNATI. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+8
89.9%
Rod Moore run for 8 yds to the Houst 26Similar
Q4 10:48
2ND & 2
OPP 26
+5
92.1%
Rod Moore run for 5 yds to the Houst 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:52
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-11
92.6%
Munchie Legaux sacked by Gavin Stansbury for a loss of 11 yards to the Houst 32Similar
Q4 9:18
2ND & 21
OPP 32
+13
93.0%
Munchie Legaux pass complete to Rod Moore for 13 yds to the Houst 19Similar
Q4 8:33
3RD & 8
OPP 19
-4
93.3%
Munchie Legaux sacked by Elandon Roberts for a loss of 4 yards to the Houst 23Similar
Q4 8:04
4TH & 12
OPP 23
+40
97.0%
Andrew Gantz 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 21TD
8 plays · 67 yds · 2:228% → 20%
Q4 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+12
91.7%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Deontay Greenberry for 12 yds to the Houst 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
91.4%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for 9 yds to the Cincy 46Similar
Q4 7:11
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+3
91.3%
Kenneth Farrow run for 3 yds to the Cincy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
92.0%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for 9 yds to the Cincy 34Similar
Q4 6:22
2ND & 1
OPP 34
+13
91.3%
Kenneth Farrow run for 13 yds to the Cincy 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:43
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-5
91.5%
Greg Ward Jr. sacked by Leviticus Payne for a loss of 5 yards to the Cincy 26Similar
Q4 5:27
2ND & 15
OPP 26
+26
79.8%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for 26 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bullard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 22PUNT
11 plays · 40 yds · 3:0889% → 94%
Q4 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
88.7%
Munchie Legaux pass complete to Shaq Washington for 12 yds to the Cincy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
89.5%
Mike Boone run for 6 yds to the Cincy 43Similar
Q4 4:09
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+7
92.6%
Mike Boone run for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:34
1ST & 10
50
+10
92.8%
Mike Boone run for 10 yds to the Houst 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
94.0%
Mike Boone run for no gain to the Houst 40Similar
Q4 2:19
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
94.5%
Rod Moore run for no gain to the Houst 40Similar
Q4 2:18
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+5
94.4%
HOUSTON Penalty, Defensive Offside (Eric Eiland) to the Houst 35Similar
Q4 2:13
3RD & 5
OPP 35
0
94.7%
Munchie Legaux pass incomplete to Johnny HoltonSimilar
Q4 2:03
4TH & 5
OPP 35
0
93.6%
Sam Geraci punt for 30 yds, downed at the Houst 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 23DOWNS
14 plays · 84 yds · 1:5910% → 11%
Q4 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 5
0
89.6%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Steven DunbarSimilar
Q4 1:51
2ND & 10
OWN 5
+10
89.8%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Deontay Greenberry for 10 yds to the Houst 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+13
90.0%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 13 yds to the Houst 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
89.1%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Steven DunbarSimilar
Q4 1:13
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+14
90.3%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for 14 yds to the Houst 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+25
88.2%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 25 yds to the Cincy 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
83.1%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Demarcus AyersSimilar
Q4 0:33
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+13
83.8%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Deontay Greenberry for 13 yds to the Cincy 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:14
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+9
81.5%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for 9 yds to the Cincy 11Similar
Q4 0:08
2ND & 1
OPP 11
0
84.1%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Demarcus AyersSimilar
Q4 0:03
3RD & 1
OPP 11
0
85.1%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Deontay GreenberrySimilar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 1
OPP 11
0
89.5%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Steven DunbarSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:27
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for 26 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bullard KICK)
-11.8
TD · Q2 0:33
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Shaq Washington for 12 yds for a TD, (Andrew Gantz KICK)
+11
TD · Q3 5:43
Greg Ward Jr. run for 40 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bullard KICK)
-11
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com