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UCF

UCF 32 at East Carolina 30

ECU
2014 · Week 15 · Dec 4, 2014 · Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
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Win probability · ECU
modelECU aheadUCF aheadconfidence bandkey playECU scoreUCF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDFGTDFGFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 4:07 · Worth Gregory punt for 41 yds , Josh Reese returns for 1 yd to the UCF 21 UCF Penalty, Offensive Holding (Cedric Thompson) to the UCF 30
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 80Home team on offense−8.1Pregame prior+11.1Score differential−3.7Garbage-time factor−1.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:39: William Stanback 1 Yd Run (Shawn Moffitt Kick) — UCF win probability +15.7 pts (now 69%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 13:16: Cam Worthy 15 Yd pass from Shane Carden (Warren Harvey Kick) — ECU win probability +17.5 pts (now 30%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 10:33: Marquez Grayson 14 Yd pass from Shane Carden (Warren Harvey Kick) — ECU win probability +22.9 pts (now 50%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  4. TD · Q4 2:17: Shane Carden pass complete to Justin Hardy for 13 yds for a TD, (Warren Harvey KICK) — ECU win probability +52.0 pts (now 90%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:00: Breshad Perriman 51 Yd pass from Justin Holman (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) — UCF win probability +84.1 pts (now 95%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ECU made the numbers' call on 5 of 8UCF made the numbers' call on 7 of 11
  1. Q1 10:46UCF 4th & 11 at ECU 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.4%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.4%
    66% to make
    Punt
    32.0%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:19ECU 4th & 10 at UCF 40, down 3
    Close callPunted · 65.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.9%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    65.8%−0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    65.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:33UCF 4th & 10 at UCF 3, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.7%−0.6
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:45UCF 4th & 4 at ECU 21, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 33.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.9%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.8%−0.2
    74% to make
    Punt
    30.3%−2.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:11UCF 4th & 8 at ECU 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.5%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.7%
    68% to make
    Punt
    33.1%−2.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:38ECU 4th & 7 at ECU 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.3%−0.9
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:35UCF 4th & 7 at ECU 13, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 47.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.6%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.0%
    85% to make
    Punt
    41.3%−5.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:07ECU 4th & 17 at ECU 20, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.7%−1.7
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.4%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:58ECU 4th & 1 at ECU 34, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    34.5%−0.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:47ECU 4th & 10 at ECU 43, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.5%−1.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.9%
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:39UCF 4th & 3 at ECU 14, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 75.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.0%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.5%−0.5
    84% to make
    Punt
    65.4%−9.6
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:04ECU 4th & 10 at ECU 46, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.6%−1.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.0%
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:39UCF 4th & 5 at ECU 19, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 83.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.7%−0.5
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.1%
    77% to make
    Punt
    74.1%−9.0
    average punt
  14. Q3 1:14UCF 4th & 11 at UCF 47, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.7%−1.5
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:46UCF 4th & 1 at UCF 15, up 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.3 ptsPunted · 74.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.4%−3.3
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:47ECU 4th & 1 at ECU 33, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 4.6 ptsPunted · 39.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.2%−4.6
    average punt
  17. Q4 5:14UCF 4th & 10 at UCF 26, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.1%−5.0
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.1%
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:47UCF 4th & 20 at UCF 15, down 4
    Close callWent for it · 19.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.7%−0.7
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    10.4%
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:10ECU 4th & 19 at UCF 24, up 4
    Numbers favored field goal by 2.4 ptsWent for it · 88.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.6%−2.4
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    89.0%
    68% to make
    Punt
    85.0%−3.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ECU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4UCF made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 4:19ECU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    68.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:59UCF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:39UCF Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 13:16ECU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.8%−0.4
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 10:33ECU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 2:17ECU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.7%−1.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 0:00UCF Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    77.2%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    77.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UCFDrive 1FG
12 plays · 44 yds · 3:5931% → 31%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
69.5%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Rannell HallSimilar
Q1 14:29
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+10
69.5%
Micah Reed run for 10 yds to the UCF 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
69.3%
Justin Holman run for 7 yds to the UCF 48Similar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 3
OWN 48
-1
69.2%
Micah Reed run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 47Similar
Q1 13:00
3RD & 4
OWN 47
+16
69.1%
Justin Holman pass complete to Rannell Hall for 16 yds to the ECaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:38
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
69.0%
Justin Holman pass complete to Jordan Akins for 1 yd to the ECaro 36Similar
Q1 12:16
2ND & 9
OPP 36
+12
68.9%
Justin Holman pass complete to Josh Reese for 12 yds to the ECaro 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
68.7%
Micah Reed run for 1 yd to the ECaro 23Similar
Q1 11:15
2ND & 9
OPP 23
-2
68.5%
Rannell Hall run for a loss of 2 yards to the ECaro 25Similar
Q1 10:51
3RD & 11
OPP 25
0
68.6%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Josh ReeseSimilar
Q1 10:46
4TH & 11
OPP 25
+42
68.7%
Shawn Moffitt 42 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 2PUNT
15 plays · 41 yds · 4:1669% → 67%
Q1 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
68.5%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Cam WorthySimilar
Q1 10:25
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+8
68.5%
Shane Carden pass complete to Bryce Williams for 8 yds to the ECaro 27Similar
Q1 10:00
3RD & 2
OWN 27
+3
68.3%
Shane Carden pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 3 yds to the ECaro 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-5
68.4%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (J.T. Boyd) to the ECaro 25Similar
Q1 9:35
1ST & 15
OWN 25
0
68.3%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Davon Grayson, broken up by Jacoby GlennSimilar
Q1 9:25
2ND & 15
OWN 25
+15
68.2%
Shane Carden pass complete to Justin Hardy for 15 yds to the ECaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
68.4%
Shane Carden pass complete to Justin Hardy for 9 yds to the ECaro 49Similar
Q1 8:25
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+3
68.6%
Breon Allen run for 3 yds to the UCF 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
68.5%
Marquez Grayson run for a loss of 7 yards to the EASTCRLINA 45 for a 1ST down UCF Penalty, Personal Foul (Thomas Niles) to the UCF 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+9
68.5%
Shane Carden pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 9 yds to the UCF 31Similar
Q1 7:11
2ND & 1
OPP 31
-10
68.7%
Allen, Breon rush for 8 yards to the UCF23, PENALTY EASTCRLINA holding (Hudson, Taylor) 10 yards to the UCF41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:38
2ND & 11
OPP 41
+1
68.3%
Shane Carden pass complete to Justin Hardy for 1 yd to the UCF 40Similar
Q1 6:30
3RD & 10
OPP 40
0
68.0%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Justin Hardy, broken up by Terrance PlummerSimilar
Q1 6:19
4TH & 10
OPP 40
+37
67.2%
Worth Gregory punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Josh Reese at the UCF 6 UCF Penalty, Offensive Holding (3 Yards) to the UCF 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:4632% → 32%
Q1 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 3
-1
67.6%
UCF Penalty, False Start (Chavis Dickey) to the UCF 2Similar
Q1 6:10
1ST & 11
OWN 2
+1
67.5%
William Stanback run for 1 yd to the UCF 3Similar
Q1 5:45
2ND & 10
OWN 3
0
67.5%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Rannell HallSimilar
Q1 5:41
3RD & 10
OWN 3
0
67.8%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Josh ReeseSimilar
Q1 5:33
4TH & 10
OWN 3
0
68.0%
Caleb Houston punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Justin Hardy at the UCF 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 4FUMBLE RETURN TD
4 plays · 33 yds · 1:0368% → 70%
Q1 5:22
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+18
68.2%
Shane Carden pass complete to Justin Hardy for 18 yds to the UCF 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
68.2%
Shane Carden pass incomplete, broken up by Terrance PlummerSimilar
Q1 4:45
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+8
68.1%
Shane Carden pass complete to Jimmy Williams for 8 yds to the UCF 7Similar
Q1 4:19
3RD & 2
OWN 7
0
69.7%
Marquez Grayson 0 Yd Fumble Recovery in End Zone (Warren Harvey PAT blocked)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 5FG
9 plays · 54 yds · 3:2531% → 34%
Q1 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
69.1%
William Stanback run for 2 yds to the UCF 27Similar
Q1 3:38
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
69.0%
Justin Holman pass complete to Josh Reese for 7 yds to the UCF 34Similar
Q1 3:10
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+16
68.7%
Justin Holman run for 1 yd to the UCF 35 for a 1ST down EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Lamar Ivey) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:45
1ST & 10
50
+23
67.8%
William Stanback run for 23 yds to the ECaro 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:28
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
67.0%
Rannell Hall run for 2 yds to the ECaro 25Similar
Q1 1:48
2ND & 8
OPP 25
-6
66.8%
Justin Holman sacked by Fred Presley for a loss of 6 yards to the ECaro 31Similar
Q1 1:15
3RD & 14
OPP 31
+10
68.1%
Justin Holman pass complete to William Stanback for 10 yds to the ECaro 21Similar
Q1 0:45
4TH & 4
OPP 21
+38
66.0%
Shawn Moffitt 38 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 6FUMBLE
6 plays · 12 yds · 1:2267% → 67%
Q1 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
67.3%
Anthony Scott run for 3 yds to the ECaro 21Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 7
OWN 21
+7
67.2%
Shane Carden pass complete to Chris Hairston for 7 yds to the ECaro 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+16
67.4%
Shane Carden pass complete to Davon Grayson for 16 yds to the ECaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:28
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-14
68.3%
Carden, Shane pass complete to Worthy, Cam for 31 yards to the UCF25, PENALTY EASTCRLINA pass interference (Jones, Isaiah) 14 yards to the EASTCRLINA30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:13
1ST & 24
OWN 30
+11
67.1%
Shane Carden run for 11 yds to the ECaro 41 Shane Carden fumbled, recovered by UCF Deion GreenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 7MISSED FG
5 plays · 17 yds · 1:5935% → 35%
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+15
64.6%
Holman, Justin pass incomplete to Reese, Josh, PENALTY EASTCRLINA pass interference 15 yards to the EASTCRLINA26, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UCF. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
64.0%
William Stanback run for 1 yd to the ECaro 25Similar
Q2 13:15
2ND & 9
OPP 25
+7
63.9%
Justin Holman run for 7 yds to the ECaro 18Similar
Q2 12:40
3RD & 2
OPP 18
-6
64.1%
Justin Holman run for a loss of 6 yards to the ECaro 24Similar
Q2 12:11
4TH & 8
OPP 24
+41
65.1%
Shawn Moffitt 41 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 8INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0067% → 67%
Q2 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+23
66.8%
Shane Carden pass intercepted Terrance Plummer return for 23 yds to the ECaro 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 9TD
6 plays · 16 yds · 1:4837% → 45%
Q2 11:47
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
63.2%
William Stanback run for 1 yd to the ECaro 15Similar
Q2 11:00
2ND & 9
OPP 15
+7
62.9%
Justin Holman pass complete to Josh Reese for 7 yds to the ECaro 8Similar
Q2 10:40
3RD & 2
OPP 8
0
63.5%
Holman, Justin pass complete to Perriman, Breshad for 8 yards to the EASTCRLINA0, PENALTY UCF pass interference (Hall, Rannell) off-setting, PENALTY EASTCRLINA Roughing Passer (Hooker, K'Hadree) off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:25
3RD & 2
OPP 8
+3
63.4%
William Stanback run for 3 yds to the ECaro 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
62.7%
William Stanback run for no gain to the ECaro 5 for a 1ST down EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Personal Foul (Chrishon Rose) to the ECaro 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
55.5%
William Stanback 2 Yd Run (Shawn Moffitt Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:0758% → 56%
Q2 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
57.9%
Shane Carden pass complete to Davon Grayson for 9 yds to the ECaro 34Similar
Q2 9:36
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
59.1%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Isaiah JonesSimilar
Q2 9:05
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-1
58.0%
Marquez Grayson run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 33Similar
Q2 8:52
4TH & 2
OWN 33
-5
56.8%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (Bobby Fulp) to the ECaro 28Similar
Q2 8:38
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+13
55.8%
Worth Gregory punt for 37 yds , Josh Reese returns for 13 yds to the ECaro 41 EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Dayon Pratt) to the ECaro 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 11FG
5 plays · 24 yds · 1:2547% → 49%
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+21
53.1%
Justin Holman pass complete to Rannell Hall for 6 yds to the ECaro 31 for a 1ST down EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Zeek Bigger) to the ECaro 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:46
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
52.5%
William Stanback run for 2 yds to the ECaro 14Similar
Q2 7:38
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+4
52.4%
William Stanback run for 4 yds to the ECaro 10Similar
Q2 7:00
3RD & 4
OPP 10
-3
52.4%
Justin Holman pass complete to William Stanback for a loss of 3 yards to the ECaro 13Similar
Q2 6:35
4TH & 7
OPP 13
+30
51.4%
Shawn Moffitt 30 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 2:1451% → 47%
Q2 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+13
50.7%
Shane Carden pass complete to Cam Worthy for 13 yds to the ECaro 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-2
51.0%
Anthony Scott run for a loss of 2 yards to the ECaro 25Similar
Q2 5:20
2ND & 12
OWN 25
+3
50.0%
Breon Allen run for 3 yds to the ECaro 28Similar
Q2 4:25
3RD & 9
OWN 28
-8
48.3%
Shane Carden sacked by Demetris Anderson for a loss of 8 yards to the ECaro 20Similar
Q2 4:07
4TH & 17
OWN 20
+1
47.4%
Worth Gregory punt for 41 yds , Josh Reese returns for 1 yd to the UCF 21 UCF Penalty, Offensive Holding (Cedric Thompson) to the UCF 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 13TD
4 plays · 70 yds · 1:0151% → 69%
Q2 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+45
48.9%
Justin Holman pass complete to Breshad Perriman for 45 yds to the ECaro 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
47.1%
William Stanback run for 1 yd to the ECaro 24Similar
Q2 2:56
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+23
46.6%
Justin Holman pass complete to Breshad Perriman for 23 yds to the ECaro 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
30.9%
William Stanback 1 Yd Run (Shawn Moffitt Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 14END OF HALF
12 plays · 55 yds · 2:3037% → 39%
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
36.7%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Isaiah JonesSimilar
Q2 1:50
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
35.6%
Shane Carden sacked by Demetris Anderson and Miles Pace for a loss of 5 yards to the ECaro 20Similar
Q2 1:29
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+14
34.7%
Shane Carden pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 14 yds to the ECaro 34Similar
Q2 0:58
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+2
35.2%
Marquez Grayson run for 2 yds to the ECaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-7
35.4%
Jimmy Williams run for a loss of 7 yards to the ECaro 29Similar
Q2 0:12
2ND & 17
OWN 29
+30
32.5%
Shane Carden pass complete to Justin Hardy for 30 yds to the UCF 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
35.7%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:03
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+21
35.2%
Shane Carden pass complete to Davon Grayson for 21 yds to the UCF 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+37
39.1%
Warren Harvey 37 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 1:5637% → 34%
Q3 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+10
36.9%
Shane Carden pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 10 yds to the ECaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-10
38.5%
Grayson, Marquez rush for 1 yard to the EASTCRLINA44, PENALTY EASTCRLINA holding (Hudson, Taylor) 10 yards to the EASTCRLINA33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:59
1ST & 20
OWN 33
+11
35.7%
Shane Carden pass complete to Breon Allen for 11 yds to the ECaro 44Similar
Q3 13:54
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+7
37.9%
Breon Allen run for 7 yds to the UCF 49Similar
Q3 13:15
3RD & 2
OPP 49
-8
37.5%
Shane Carden sacked by Jaryl Mamea for a loss of 8 yards to the ECaro 43Similar
Q3 12:47
4TH & 10
OWN 43
0
34.3%
Worth Gregory punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UCF 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 16FG
12 plays · 64 yds · 4:5867% → 79%
Q3 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
32.6%
William Stanback run for 2 yds to the UCF 24Similar
Q3 12:15
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+10
32.4%
Justin Holman pass complete to Josh Reese for 10 yds to the UCF 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+8
30.9%
Justin Holman run for 8 yds to the UCF 42Similar
Q3 10:50
2ND & 2
OWN 42
+5
28.2%
William Stanback run for 5 yds to the UCF 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
27.4%
Justin Holman pass complete to Josh Reese for 6 yds to the ECaro 47Similar
Q3 10:06
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+6
25.4%
William Stanback run for 6 yds to the ECaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+20
25.1%
Justin Holman pass complete to Breshad Perriman for 20 yds to the ECaro 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-1
23.4%
William Stanback run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 22Similar
Q3 8:59
2ND & 11
OPP 22
+2
23.7%
Justin Holman run for 2 yds to the ECaro 20Similar
Q3 8:58
3RD & 9
OPP 20
+6
23.9%
Justin Holman pass complete to Rannell Hall for 6 yds to the ECaro 14Similar
Q3 7:39
4TH & 3
OPP 14
+31
20.6%
Shawn Moffitt 31 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 11 yds · 1:0623% → 22%
Q3 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-6
23.3%
Shane Carden pass complete to Marquez Grayson for a loss of 6 yards to the ECaro 29Similar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 16
OWN 29
+9
22.4%
Shane Carden pass complete to Breon Allen for 9 yds to the ECaro 38Similar
Q3 6:35
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+8
22.6%
Shane Carden pass complete to Cam Worthy for 8 yds to the ECaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
24.0%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Isaiah JonesSimilar
Q3 6:15
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
23.6%
Shane Carden pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:10
3RD & 10
OWN 46
0
22.6%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Justin HardySimilar
Q3 6:04
4TH & 10
OWN 46
0
22.2%
Worth Gregory punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Josh Reese at the UCF 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 18MISSED FG
6 plays · 60 yds · 2:0681% → 84%
Q3 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+14
18.8%
Justin Holman pass complete to Rannell Hall for 14 yds to the UCF 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+41
18.3%
William Stanback run for 41 yds to the ECaro 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:01
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-1
15.3%
William Stanback run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 25Similar
Q3 4:18
2ND & 11
OPP 25
+6
15.2%
Justin Holman pass complete to Josh Reese for 6 yds to the ECaro 19Similar
Q3 3:44
3RD & 5
OPP 19
0
13.8%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Rannell HallSimilar
Q3 3:39
4TH & 5
OPP 19
+36
15.7%
Shawn Moffitt 36 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 19INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q3 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
19.0%
Shane Carden pass intercepted Jacoby Glenn return for no gain to the UCF 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 2:0685% → 88%
Q3 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
15.3%
Micah Reed run for 1 yd to the UCF 33Similar
Q3 2:50
2ND & 9
OWN 33
0
14.6%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Josh ReeseSimilar
Q3 2:45
3RD & 9
OWN 33
+15
15.2%
Holman, Justin pass incomplete to Perriman, Breshad, PENALTY EASTCRLINA personal foul 15 yards to the UCF48, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UCF. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
11.6%
William Stanback run for 3 yds to the ECaro 49Similar
Q3 2:00
2ND & 7
OPP 49
-4
11.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the UCF 47 TEAM fumbled, recovered by UCF Justin HolmanSimilar
Q3 1:25
3RD & 11
OWN 47
0
11.2%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Rannell HallSimilar
Q3 1:14
4TH & 11
OWN 47
+5
12.3%
Caleb Houston punt for 48 yds , Justin Hardy returns for 5 yds to the ECaro 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 21TD
11 plays · 90 yds · 2:4416% → 30%
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+6
16.4%
Shane Carden pass complete to Anthony Scott for 6 yds to the ECaro 16Similar
Q3 0:30
2ND & 4
OWN 16
+1
14.8%
Marquez Grayson run for 1 yd to the ECaro 17Similar
Q3 0:20
3RD & 3
OWN 17
+8
14.7%
Shane Carden pass complete to Justin Hardy for 8 yds to the ECaro 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
14.6%
Shane Carden sacked by Miles Pace for a loss of 10 yards to the ECaro 15Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 20
OWN 15
+15
14.3%
Shane Carden pass complete to Justin Hardy for 15 yds to the ECaro 30Similar
Q4 14:46
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+8
14.4%
Shane Carden pass complete to Justin Hardy for 8 yds to the ECaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
13.3%
Breon Allen run for 3 yds to the ECaro 41Similar
Q4 13:35
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+22
12.1%
Shane Carden pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 22 yds to the UCF 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+22
12.6%
Shane Carden pass complete to Davon Grayson for 22 yds to the UCF 15 for a 1ST down UCF Penalty, Defensive Holding ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:16
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
30.1%
Cam Worthy 15 Yd pass from Shane Carden (Warren Harvey Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:0575% → 75%
Q4 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+5
24.6%
Justin Holman pass complete to Rannell Hall for 5 yds to the UCF 11Similar
Q4 12:25
2ND & 5
OWN 11
+4
24.0%
William Stanback run for 4 yds to the UCF 15Similar
Q4 12:00
3RD & 1
OWN 15
0
24.3%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Jordan Akins, broken up by Zeek BiggerSimilar
Q4 11:46
4TH & 1
OWN 15
+12
25.0%
Caleb Houston punt for 45 yds , Justin Hardy returns for 12 yds to the UCF 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 23TD
5 plays · 48 yds · 1:0725% → 50%
Q4 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
24.9%
Shane Carden pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:30
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+10
24.2%
Shane Carden pass complete to Justin Hardy for 10 yds to the UCF 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+8
25.0%
Shane Carden run for 8 yds to the UCF 30Similar
Q4 11:00
2ND & 2
OPP 30
+16
27.3%
Shane Carden run for 16 yds to the UCF 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:33
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
50.3%
Marquez Grayson 14 Yd pass from Shane Carden (Warren Harvey Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 24FUMBLE
6 plays · 51 yds · 1:3962% → 67%
Q4 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
38.5%
William Stanback run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 24Similar
Q4 9:55
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
38.2%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Breshad PerrimanSimilar
Q4 9:45
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+18
39.9%
Justin Holman pass complete to Rannell Hall for 18 yds to the UCF 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
33.8%
William Stanback run for 2 yds to the UCF 44Similar
Q4 8:47
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+32
33.3%
Rannell Hall run for 32 yds to the ECaro 24 Rannell Hall fumbled, forced by Detric Allen, recovered by ECaro Zeek BiggerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:3341% → 37%
Q4 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
41.1%
Shane Carden pass complete to Anthony Scott for 9 yds to the ECaro 33Similar
Q4 7:53
2ND & 1
OWN 33
0
44.1%
Breon Allen run for no gain to the ECaro 33Similar
Q4 7:00
3RD & 1
OWN 33
0
39.8%
Shane Carden run for no gain to the ECaro 33Similar
Q4 6:47
4TH & 1
OWN 33
+7
37.0%
Worth Gregory punt for 48 yds , Josh Reese returns for 7 yds to the UCF 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:2167% → 67%
Q4 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
32.8%
William Stanback run for 3 yds to the UCF 29Similar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 7
OWN 29
-3
28.9%
William Stanback run for a loss of 3 yards to the UCF 26Similar
Q4 5:25
3RD & 10
OWN 26
0
31.7%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Breshad PerrimanSimilar
Q4 5:14
4TH & 10
OWN 26
+4
33.4%
Caleb Houston punt for 46 yds , Justin Hardy returns for 4 yds to the ECaro 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 27TD
9 plays · 68 yds · 2:4437% → 90%
Q4 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
36.6%
Shane Carden pass complete to Justin Hardy for no gain to the ECaro 32Similar
Q4 4:40
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+3
36.0%
Shane Carden pass complete to Breon Allen for 3 yds to the ECaro 35Similar
Q4 4:24
3RD & 7
OWN 35
-5
34.8%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (Justin Hardy) to the ECaro 30Similar
Q4 4:01
3RD & 12
OWN 30
+13
32.7%
Shane Carden run for 13 yds to the ECaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+22
39.4%
Shane Carden pass complete to Breon Allen for 22 yds to the UCF 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:26
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
44.6%
Breon Allen run for 5 yds to the UCF 30Similar
Q4 3:02
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+4
44.5%
Shane Carden pass complete to Cam Worthy for 4 yds to the UCF 26Similar
Q4 2:40
3RD & 1
OPP 26
+13
38.2%
Shane Carden pass complete to Justin Hardy for 13 yds to the UCF 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:17
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
90.2%
Shane Carden pass complete to Justin Hardy for 13 yds for a TD, (Warren Harvey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 28DOWNS
8 plays · -10 yds · 0:3020% → 13%
Q4 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
79.6%
UCF Penalty, False Start (Chavis Dickey) to the UCF 20Similar
Q4 2:11
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
79.7%
Justin Holman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:59
2ND & 15
OWN 20
-5
80.1%
Justin Holman sacked by Maurice Falls and Brandon Williams for a loss of 5 yards to the UCF 15Similar
Q4 1:53
3RD & 20
OWN 15
0
86.8%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Rannell Hall, broken up by Brandon WilliamsSimilar
Q4 1:47
4TH & 20
OWN 15
0
87.2%
Justin Holman pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 29DOWNS
6 plays · -20 yds · 1:1893% → 93%
Q4 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-3
93.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the UCF 18Similar
Q4 1:02
2ND & 13
OPP 18
-2
95.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 20Similar
Q4 0:43
3RD & 15
OPP 20
-4
95.0%
Shane Carden run for a loss of 4 yards to the UCF 24Similar
Q4 0:10
4TH & 19
OPP 24
-11
92.5%
Shane Carden sacked by Jaryl Mamea for a loss of 11 yards to the UCF 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 30END OF GAME
2 plays · 65 yds · 0:0510% → 95%
Q4 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+14
89.6%
Justin Holman pass complete to Josh Reese for 14 yds to the UCF 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+51
5.5%
Breshad Perriman 51 Yd pass from Justin Holman (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:00
Breshad Perriman 51 Yd pass from Justin Holman (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)
-84.1
TD · Q4 2:17
Shane Carden pass complete to Justin Hardy for 13 yds for a TD, (Warren Harvey KICK)
+52
TD · Q4 10:33
Marquez Grayson 14 Yd pass from Shane Carden (Warren Harvey Kick)
+22.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com