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UConn 10 at Memphis 41

MEM
2014 · Week 14 · Nov 29, 2014 · Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
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Win probability · MEM
modelMEM aheadCONN aheadconfidence bandkey playMEM scoreCONN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:08 · Joshua Marriner run for no gain to the UConn 23
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+39.5+19.80−19.8−39.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 4:59: Jake Elliott 21 Yd Field Goal — CONN win probability +1.2 pts (now 13%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:55: Keiwone Malone 6 Yd pass from Paxton Lynch (Jake Elliott Kick) — MEM win probability +4.9 pts (now 92%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 0:03: Bobby Puyol 45 Yd Field Goal — CONN win probability +2.0 pts (now 14%) (top driver: CONN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 7:36: Keiwone Malone 9 Yd pass from Paxton Lynch (Jake Elliott Kick) — MEM win probability +6.4 pts (now 95%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 3:15: Tevin Jones 12 Yd pass from Paxton Lynch (Jake Elliott Kick) — MEM win probability +3.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MEM made the numbers' call on 6 of 9CONN made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00CONN 4th & 4 at CONN 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.1%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:00MEM 4th & 8 at CONN 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.4%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    87.3%−0.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    87.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:32CONN 4th & 5 at CONN 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.9%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:59MEM 4th & 4 at CONN 4, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 85.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.9%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    84.0%−1.0
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:59CONN 4th & 5 at CONN 30, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.2%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.2%
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:44MEM 4th & 5 at CONN 5, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 84.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.0%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.0%
    92% to make
    Punt
    82.4%−1.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 15:00CONN 4th & 10 at CONN 40, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.5%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 14:22MEM 4th & 16 at MEM 14, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.1%−0.8
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.0%
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:55CONN 4th & 8 at MEM 14, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 16.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.2%−0.4
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    16.7%
    84% to make
    Punt
    13.4%−3.3
    average punt
  10. Q2 6:59CONN 4th & 9 at CONN 41, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.5%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 14:54MEM 4th & 12 at MEM 34, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.8%−1.4
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.2%
    average punt
  12. Q3 13:51CONN 4th & 9 at MEM 36, down 10
    Close callPunted · 13.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.1%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    13.0%−0.1
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    12.8%−0.3
    average punt
  13. Q3 10:36MEM 4th & 7 at MEM 23, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.7%−1.0
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.7%
    average punt
  14. Q3 7:36CONN 4th & 6 at CONN 29, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.6%−0.4
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.0%
    average punt
  15. Q3 3:09MEM 4th & 1 at CONN 31, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    97.7%−0.5
    54% to make
    Punt
    97.5%−0.8
    average punt
  16. Q4 12:16MEM 4th & 4 at MEM 44, up 24
    Close callPunted · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 10:26CONN 4th & 6 at CONN 15, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.9%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.9%
    average punt
  18. Q4 5:09CONN 4th & 10 at CONN 25, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  19. Q4 3:25MEM 4th & 1 at MEM 40, up 31
    Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    100.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MEM made the numbers' call on 5 of 5CONN made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 1:55MEM Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 7:36MEM Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 3:15MEM Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 0:53MEM Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 12:22CONN Touchdown, down 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 5:09MEM Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CONNDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
89.1%
Ron Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the UConn 23Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 23
-3
89.1%
Tim Boyle run for a loss of 3 yards to the UConn 20Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+11
89.1%
Tim Boyle pass complete to Noel Thomas for 11 yds to the UConn 31Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
89.1%
Justin Wain punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Keiwone Malone at the Memph 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
88.6%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Mose Frazier for 4 yds to the Memph 44Similar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+9
88.6%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Keiwone Malone for 9 yds to the UConn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
88.6%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Mose FrazierSimilar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+2
88.6%
Brandon Hayes run for 2 yds to the UConn 45Similar
Q1 13:00
3RD & 8
OPP 45
0
88.6%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Tevin Jones, broken up by Jamar SummersSimilar
Q1 13:00
4TH & 8
OPP 45
0
88.5%
Nick Jacobs punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Deshon Foxx at the UConn 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 21 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q1 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+16
88.1%
Ron Johnson run for 16 yds to the UConn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
88.1%
Ron Johnson run for 3 yds to the UConn 34Similar
Q1 11:32
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+2
88.0%
Ron Johnson run for 2 yds to the UConn 36Similar
Q1 11:32
3RD & 5
OWN 36
0
88.1%
Tim Boyle pass incomplete to Noel ThomasSimilar
Q1 11:32
4TH & 5
OWN 36
+12
88.2%
Justin Wain punt for 27 yds, fair catch by Keiwone Malone at the MEMPHIS 37 CONNECTICUT Penalty, kick catching interference (-15 Yards) to the UConn 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 4FG
14 plays · 44 yds · 4:2988% → 87%
Q1 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+16
87.8%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Adrian Henderson for 16 yds to the UConn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
87.9%
Sam Craft run for 2 yds to the UConn 30Similar
Q1 9:28
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+5
87.9%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Roderick Proctor for 5 yds to the UConn 25Similar
Q1 9:28
3RD & 3
OPP 25
+6
87.8%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Phil Mayhue for 6 yds to the UConn 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
87.9%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Roderick ProctorSimilar
Q1 9:28
2ND & 10
OPP 19
0
87.9%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Adrian HendersonSimilar
Q1 9:28
3RD & 10
OPP 19
+12
87.8%
Paxton Lynch run for 12 yds to the UConn 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-4
87.9%
Paxton Lynch run for a loss of 4 yards to the UConn 13 Paxton Lynch fumbled, recovered by Memph Paxton LynchSimilar
Q1 9:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
+6
87.9%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Alan Cross for 6 yds to the UConn 7Similar
Q1 9:28
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
87.8%
LYNCH, Paxton pass incomplete to HENDERSON, Adrian (FRANK, Reuben), PENALTY UCONN holding (ADAMS, Andrew) 4 yards to the UCONN3, 1ST DOWN MEM, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
87.9%
Sam Craft run for a loss of 1 yard to the UConn 4Similar
Q1 9:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
87.9%
Jarvis Cooper run for no gain to the UConn 4Similar
Q1 9:28
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
87.8%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Jarvis CooperSimilar
Q1 4:59
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
86.6%
Jake Elliott 21 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q1 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
86.6%
Ron Johnson run for no gain to the UConn 25Similar
Q1 4:59
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-6
86.7%
Ron Johnson run for 4 yds to the UConn 29 CONNECTICUT Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the UConn 19Similar
Q1 4:59
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+11
86.7%
Tim Boyle pass complete to Geremy Davis for 11 yds to the UConn 30Similar
Q1 4:59
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
86.7%
Tim Boyle pass incomplete to Noel ThomasSimilar
Q1 4:59
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
86.9%
Justin Wain punt for 27 yds, fair catch by Keiwone Malone at the Memph 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 6FG
10 plays · 52 yds · 2:2486% → 87%
Q1 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+10
86.4%
LYNCH, Paxton pass incomplete to FRAZIER, Mose (MELIFONWU, Obi), PENALTY UCONN holding (MELIFONWU, Obi) 10 yards to the UCONN47, 1ST DOWN MEM, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:08
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+19
86.5%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Keiwone Malone for 19 yds to the UConn 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:08
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+13
86.7%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Keiwone Malone for 13 yds to the UConn 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:08
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
86.7%
Brandon Hayes run for 2 yds to the UConn 13Similar
Q1 3:08
2ND & 8
OPP 13
0
86.7%
Brandon Hayes run for no gain to the UConn 13Similar
Q1 3:08
3RD & 8
OPP 13
+11
86.5%
LYNCH, Paxton pass incomplete to MALONE, Keiwone, PENALTY UCONN pass interference (WILLIAMS, Jhavon) 11 yards to the UCONN2, 1ST DOWN MEM, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-3
86.7%
Brandon Hayes run for a loss of 3 yards to the UConn 5Similar
Q1 3:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
86.7%
Paxton Lynch pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
86.5%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Mose FrazierSimilar
Q1 0:44
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
86.7%
Jake Elliott 22 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 0:4414% → 14%
Q1 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
86.2%
BOYLE, Tim pass incomplete to MCQUILLAN, Sean, PENALTY MEM roughing passer (HARRIS, Charles) 15 yards to the UCONN40, 1ST DOWN UCONN, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
85.7%
Ron Johnson run for 2 yds to the UConn 42Similar
Q1 0:44
2ND & 8
OWN 42
0
85.8%
Ron Johnson run for no gain to the UConn 42Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 42
-2
85.8%
Tim Boyle run for a loss of 2 yards to the UConn 40Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 40
0
86.3%
Justin Wain punt for 40 yds , Keiwone Malone returns for no gain to the Memph 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q2 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
86.3%
Brandon Hayes run for 1 yd to the Memph 21Similar
Q2 14:22
2ND & 9
OWN 21
-2
86.3%
Sam Craft run for a loss of 2 yards to the Memph 19Similar
Q2 14:22
3RD & 11
OWN 19
-5
86.0%
MEMPHIS Penalty, false start (Gabe Kuhn) to the Memph 14Similar
Q2 14:22
3RD & 16
OWN 14
0
86.0%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Phil MayhueSimilar
Q2 14:22
4TH & 16
OWN 14
0
85.7%
Spencer Smith punt for 18 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Memph 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 9MISSED FG
14 plays · 18 yds · 4:1016% → 15%
Q2 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
84.1%
Ron Johnson run for no gain to the Memph 32Similar
Q2 13:05
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+11
84.2%
Ron Johnson run for 11 yds to the Memph 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+9
84.0%
Ron Johnson run for 9 yds to the Memph 12Similar
Q2 13:05
2ND & 1
OPP 12
+1
84.0%
Ron Johnson run for 1 yd to the Memph 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
84.0%
Tim Boyle pass incomplete to Noel ThomasSimilar
Q2 13:05
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+9
84.2%
Ron Johnson run for 9 yds to the Memph 17Similar
Q2 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-15
84.0%
CONNECTICUT Penalty, personal foul (Jazzmar Clax) to the Memph 26Similar
Q2 10:25
3RD & 1
OPP 17
+1
84.9%
Tim Boyle run for 1 yd to the Memph 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
84.3%
Tim Boyle pass incomplete to Jazzmar ClaxSimilar
Q2 10:25
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+2
84.3%
Ron Johnson run for 2 yds to the Memph 14Similar
Q2 9:07
3RD & 8
OPP 14
0
84.5%
Deshon Foxx pass incomplete to Noel Thomas, broken up by Bakari HollierSimilar
Q2 8:55
4TH & 8
OPP 14
+31
85.4%
Bobby Puyol 31 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 23 yds · 0:0086% → 87%
Q2 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
86.4%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Mose FrazierSimilar
Q2 8:55
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+12
86.3%
Brandon Hayes run for 12 yds to the Memph 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
86.5%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Mose Frazier for 5 yds to the Memph 37Similar
Q2 8:55
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+3
87.0%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Mose Frazier for 3 yds to the Memph 40Similar
Q2 8:55
3RD & 2
OWN 40
+3
86.8%
Brandon Hayes run for 3 yds to the Memph 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
87.1%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Tevin JonesSimilar
Q2 8:55
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
86.8%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Roderick ProctorSimilar
Q2 8:55
3RD & 10
OWN 43
0
86.5%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Tevin JonesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0015% → 14%
Q2 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
85.4%
Ron Johnson run for 3 yds to the UConn 43Similar
Q2 6:59
2ND & 7
OWN 43
-2
85.1%
Ron Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the UConn 41Similar
Q2 6:59
3RD & 9
OWN 41
0
85.8%
Tim Boyle pass incomplete to Noel ThomasSimilar
Q2 6:59
4TH & 9
OWN 41
0
86.4%
Justin Wain punt for 59 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 12TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 3:3086% → 92%
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
86.3%
LYNCH, Paxton pass incomplete to PROCTOR, Roderick, PENALTY UCONN pass interference (MELIFONWU, Obi) 15 yards to the MEM35, 1ST DOWN MEM, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+19
86.4%
Paxton Lynch run for 19 yds to the UConn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
87.3%
Sam Craft run for 3 yds to the UConn 43Similar
Q2 5:25
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+8
87.1%
Brandon Hayes run for 8 yds to the UConn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
87.4%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Adrian HendersonSimilar
Q2 5:25
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+8
87.4%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Roderick Proctor for 8 yds to the UConn 27Similar
Q2 5:25
3RD & 2
OPP 27
+6
87.0%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Phil Mayhue for 6 yds to the UConn 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
87.4%
Roderick Proctor run for 1 yd to the UConn 20Similar
Q2 5:25
2ND & 9
OPP 20
+11
87.4%
Paxton Lynch run for 11 yds to the UConn 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
87.4%
Paxton Lynch run for 3 yds to the UConn 6Similar
Q2 1:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
92.3%
Keiwone Malone 6 Yd pass from Paxton Lynch (Jake Elliott Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 13FG
13 plays · 51 yds · 1:4710% → 14%
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
90.4%
Tim Boyle pass complete to Geremy Davis for 5 yds to the UConn 26Similar
Q2 1:50
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+8
90.3%
Tim Boyle pass complete to Noel Thomas for 8 yds to the UConn 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
90.3%
Tim Boyle pass incomplete to Sean McQuillanSimilar
Q2 1:50
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+6
90.4%
Tim Boyle pass complete to Noel Thomas for 6 yds to the UConn 40Similar
Q2 1:50
3RD & 4
OWN 40
+17
90.1%
Tim Boyle pass complete to Max DeLorenzo for 17 yds to the Memph 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-2
89.3%
Tim Boyle run for a loss of 2 yards to the Memph 45Similar
Q2 1:50
2ND & 12
OPP 45
+1
90.0%
Tim Boyle pass complete to Max DeLorenzo for 1 yd to the Memph 44Similar
Q2 0:21
3RD & 11
OPP 44
+16
90.0%
Tim Boyle pass complete to Noel Thomas for 16 yds to the Memph 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
88.3%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:03
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+45
85.6%
Bobby Puyol 45 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 0:0087% → 86%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+9
87.3%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Keiwone Malone for 9 yds to the Memph 30Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 1
OWN 30
+6
87.7%
Brandon Hayes run for 6 yds to the Memph 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
87.7%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Mose FrazierSimilar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-2
87.4%
Brandon Hayes run for a loss of 2 yards to the Memph 34Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 12
OWN 34
0
86.7%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Keiwone Malone, broken up by Jhavon WilliamsSimilar
Q3 14:54
4TH & 12
OWN 34
0
86.2%
Spencer Smith punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Deshon Foxx at the UConn 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 39 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q3 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
87.3%
Tim Boyle pass complete to Geremy Davis for 19 yds to the UConn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
86.5%
Ron Johnson run for 4 yds to the UConn 48Similar
Q3 13:51
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+2
86.2%
Ron Johnson run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 13:51
3RD & 4
50
+13
86.2%
Tim Boyle pass complete to Geremy Davis for 13 yds to the Memph 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:51
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
86.0%
Tim Boyle pass incomplete to Deshon FoxxSimilar
Q3 13:51
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+1
86.0%
Ron Johnson run for 1 yd to the Memph 36Similar
Q3 13:51
3RD & 9
OPP 36
0
86.3%
Tim Boyle pass incomplete to Sean McQuillanSimilar
Q3 13:51
4TH & 9
OPP 36
0
87.2%
Justin Wain punt for 36 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0088% → 86%
Q3 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
87.5%
Brandon Hayes run for 3 yds to the Memph 23Similar
Q3 10:36
2ND & 7
OWN 23
0
87.4%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Tevin Jones, broken up by Obi MelifonwuSimilar
Q3 10:36
3RD & 7
OWN 23
0
86.8%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Adrian HendersonSimilar
Q3 10:36
4TH & 7
OWN 23
0
86.4%
Spencer Smith punt for 53 yds, downed at the UConn 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 18FUMBLE
2 plays · 15 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q3 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+14
87.2%
Tim Boyle pass complete to Geremy Davis for 14 yds to the UConn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
86.6%
Tim Boyle run for 1 yd to the UConn 39 Tim Boyle fumbled, forced by Derek Howard, recovered by Memph Martin IfediSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 19TD
5 plays · 39 yds · 1:2389% → 95%
Q3 8:59
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+15
88.6%
LYNCH, Paxton pass incomplete to MALONE, Keiwone, PENALTY UCONN pass interference (WILLIAMS, Jhavon) 15 yards to the UCONN24, 1ST DOWN MEM, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:59
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+12
88.8%
Mose Frazier run for 12 yds to the UConn 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:59
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
88.8%
Brandon Hayes run for 2 yds to the UConn 10Similar
Q3 8:59
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+1
88.8%
Paxton Lynch run for 1 yd to the UConn 9Similar
Q3 7:36
3RD & 7
OPP 9
+9
95.2%
Keiwone Malone 9 Yd pass from Paxton Lynch (Jake Elliott Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:007% → 6%
Q3 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
93.5%
Tim Boyle pass incomplete to Geremy Davis, broken up by Bakari HollierSimilar
Q3 7:36
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
93.6%
Ron Johnson run for 2 yds to the UConn 27Similar
Q3 7:36
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+2
93.7%
Chandler Whitmer pass complete to Deshon Foxx for 2 yds to the UConn 29Similar
Q3 7:36
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
93.7%
Justin Wain punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Memph 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 21TD
12 plays · 65 yds · 3:1595% → 99%
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+17
95.2%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Adrian Henderson for 17 yds to the UConn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
95.4%
Jarvis Cooper run for 3 yds to the UConn 45Similar
Q3 6:30
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+3
95.4%
Jarvis Cooper run for 3 yds to the UConn 42Similar
Q3 6:30
3RD & 4
OPP 42
+11
95.3%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Roderick Proctor for 11 yds to the UConn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
95.4%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Mose FrazierSimilar
Q3 6:30
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+6
95.4%
Drew Bishop run for 6 yds to the UConn 25Similar
Q3 6:30
3RD & 4
OPP 25
+15
95.3%
LYNCH, Paxton pass incomplete to CRAIG, Joe, PENALTY UCONN pass interference (GREEN, John) 15 yards to the UCONN10, 1ST DOWN MEM, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-5
95.4%
MEMPHIS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the UConn 15Similar
Q3 6:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 15
0
95.4%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Adrian HendersonSimilar
Q3 6:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 15
+3
95.4%
Paxton Lynch run for 3 yds to the UConn 12Similar
Q3 3:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
+12
98.9%
Tevin Jones 12 Yd pass from Paxton Lynch (Jake Elliott Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 22INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
97.9%
Tim Boyle pass intercepted Fritz Etienne return for no gain to the UConn 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 23TD
6 plays · 40 yds · 2:1699% → 100%
Q3 3:09
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
99.0%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Mose Frazier for 5 yds to the UConn 35Similar
Q3 3:09
2ND & 5
OPP 35
-1
98.9%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Mose Frazier for a loss of 1 yard to the UConn 36Similar
Q3 3:09
3RD & 6
OPP 36
+5
98.9%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Keiwone Malone for 5 yds to the UConn 31Similar
Q3 3:09
4TH & 1
OPP 31
+3
98.8%
Brandon Hayes run for 3 yds to the UConn 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:09
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+7
99.0%
Paxton Lynch run for 7 yds to the UConn 21Similar
Q3 0:53
2ND & 3
OPP 21
+21
99.8%
Phil Mayhue 21 Yd pass from Paxton Lynch (Jake Elliott Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 24TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:310% → 1%
Q3 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+26
99.8%
Max DeLorenzo run for 26 yds to the Memph 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
99.8%
Max DeLorenzo run for 3 yds to the Memph 46Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+7
99.8%
Joshua Marriner run for 7 yds to the Memph 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
99.8%
Joshua Marriner run for 1 yd to the Memph 38Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 38
+4
99.8%
Max DeLorenzo run for 4 yds to the Memph 34Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 34
-5
99.8%
CONNECTICUT Penalty, false start (Geremy Davis) to the Memph 39Similar
Q4 12:22
3RD & 10
OPP 39
+39
98.7%
Arkeel Newsome 39 Yd pass from Tim Boyle (Bobby Puyol Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
99.4%
Brandon Hayes run for 5 yds to the Memph 43Similar
Q4 12:16
2ND & 5
OWN 43
-10
99.4%
Paxton Lynch sacked by Cole Ormsby for a loss of 10 yards to the Memph 33Similar
Q4 12:16
3RD & 15
OWN 33
+11
99.3%
Brandon Hayes run for 11 yds to the Memph 44Similar
Q4 12:16
4TH & 4
OWN 44
0
99.3%
Spencer Smith punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Deshon Foxx at the UConn 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+2
98.9%
Max DeLorenzo run for 2 yds to the UConn 13Similar
Q4 10:26
2ND & 8
OWN 13
+2
98.9%
Max DeLorenzo run for 2 yds to the UConn 15Similar
Q4 10:26
3RD & 6
OWN 15
0
98.9%
Tim Boyle pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:26
4TH & 6
OWN 15
0
98.9%
Justin Wain punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Keiwone Malone at the UConn 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 27TD
7 plays · 49 yds · 3:43100% → 100%
Q4 8:52
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
99.5%
Brandon Hayes run for 4 yds to the UConn 45Similar
Q4 8:52
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+3
99.5%
Brandon Hayes run for 3 yds to the UConn 42Similar
Q4 8:52
3RD & 3
OPP 42
+9
99.5%
Jarvis Cooper run for 9 yds to the UConn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:52
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
99.5%
Jarvis Cooper run for 2 yds to the UConn 31Similar
Q4 8:52
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+12
99.5%
Jarvis Cooper run for 12 yds to the UConn 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:52
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+18
99.5%
Jarvis Cooper run for 18 yds to the UConn 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
Jarvis Cooper 1 Yd Run (Jake Elliott Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 28PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.9%
Ron Johnson run for 4 yds to the UConn 29Similar
Q4 5:09
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-4
99.9%
Ron Johnson run for a loss of 4 yards to the UConn 25Similar
Q4 5:09
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Tim Boyle pass incomplete to Brian LemelleSimilar
Q4 5:09
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Justin Wain punt for 44 yds, downed at the Memph 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 29PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
99.9%
Robert Davis run for 3 yds to the Memph 34Similar
Q4 3:25
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+4
99.9%
Tearris Wallace run for 4 yds to the Memph 38Similar
Q4 3:25
3RD & 3
OWN 38
+2
99.9%
Tearris Wallace run for 2 yds to the Memph 40Similar
Q4 3:25
4TH & 1
OWN 40
0
99.9%
Spencer Smith punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Deshon Foxx at the UConn 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 30END OF GAME
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
99.9%
Joshua Marriner run for no gain to the UConn 23Similar
Q4 1:08
2ND & 10
OWN 23
0
99.9%
Joshua Marriner run for no gain to the UConn 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:36
Keiwone Malone 9 Yd pass from Paxton Lynch (Jake Elliott Kick)
+6.4
TD · Q2 1:55
Keiwone Malone 6 Yd pass from Paxton Lynch (Jake Elliott Kick)
+4.9
TD · Q3 3:15
Tevin Jones 12 Yd pass from Paxton Lynch (Jake Elliott Kick)
+3.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com