2014 · Week 14 · Nov 29, 2014 · Lincoln Financial Field
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Win probability · TEM
modelTEM aheadCIN aheadconfidence bandkey playTEM scoreCIN score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 4:58 · Sam Geraci punt for 28 yds, fair catch by John Christopher at the Temp 23
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 12:39: Gunner Kiel pass complete to Mekale McKay for 3 yds for a TD, (Andrew Gantz KICK) — CIN win probability +5.0 pts (now 60%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:28: Mike Boone run for 1 yd for a TD, (Andrew Gantz KICK) — CIN win probability +8.0 pts (now 74%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 6:51: Kenneth Harper run for 3 yds to the Cincy 15 — TEM win probability +4.5 pts (now 34%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 7:07: Mike Boone run for 14 yds to the Cincy 39 CINCINNATI Penalty, Offensive holding (Johnny Holton) to the Cincy 29 — CIN win probability +7.5 pts (now 89%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 2:01: Timeout CINCINNATI, clock 02:01 — CIN win probability +5.0 pts (now 95%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
TEM made the numbers' call on 11 of 12CIN made the numbers' call on 4 of 10
- Q1 15:00TEM 4th & 12 at CIN 48, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 42.3% before the snapGo for it42.3%−0.123% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call42.4%average punt
- Q1 13:15CIN 4th & 1 at CIN 29, tiedClose callPunted · 57.1% before the snapGo for it57.2%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call57.1%−0.1average punt
- Q1 11:28TEM 4th & 8 at midfield, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 43.3% before the snapGo for it43.4%−<0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call43.4%average punt
- Q1 7:45CIN 4th & 5 at CIN 45, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 55.8% before the snapGo for it55.8%−0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call55.9%average punt
- Q1 0:17TEM 4th & 11 at CIN 12, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 46.8% before the snapGo for it46.2%−0.422% to convertField goalTheir call46.6%86% to makePunt44.4%−2.3average punt
- Q2 15:00CIN 4th & 3 at CIN 33, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.2% before the snapGo for it51.6%−<0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call51.7%average punt
- Q2 12:32TEM 4th & 28 at midfield, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.1% before the snapGo for it42.2%−1.57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call43.6%average punt
- Q2 7:58CIN 4th & 3 at CIN 27, up 4Close callPunted · 56.0% before the snapGo for it56.3%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call56.1%−0.3average punt
- Q2 6:23TEM 4th & 6 at TEM 31, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.7% before the snapGo for it41.2%−0.939% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call42.2%average punt
- Q2 4:58CIN 4th & 6 at CIN 49, up 4Close callPunted · 57.2% before the snapGo for it57.1%40% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call56.8%−0.3average punt
- Q2 3:34TEM 4th & 5 at TEM 28, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.3% before the snapGo for it40.8%−0.740% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call41.5%average punt
- Q3 12:15CIN 4th & 7 at TEM 34, up 11Close callPunted · 71.0% before the snapGo for it71.0%37% to convertField goal70.7%−0.347% to makePuntTheir call70.1%−0.9average punt
- Q3 12:07TEM 4th & 2 at CIN 46, down 11Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call29.9%57% to convertField goal27.1%−2.923% to makePunt28.6%−1.3average punt
- Q3 7:00TEM 4th & 6 at CIN 13, down 11Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.2% before the snapGo for it25.3%−0.437% to convertField goalTheir call25.7%85% to makePunt17.8%−8.0average punt
- Q3 5:12TEM 4th & 1 at CIN 9, down 8Numbers favored go for it by 3.7 ptsKicked a field goal · 30.0% before the snapGo for it30.1%71% to convertField goalTheir call26.4%−3.789% to makePunt15.6%−14.5average punt
- Q3 5:12CIN 4th & 26 at TEM 48, up 8Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.3% before the snapGo for it69.3%−3.77% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call73.0%average punt
- Q3 3:16TEM 4th & 9 at TEM 46, down 8Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.4% before the snapGo for it25.1%−1.332% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call26.5%average punt
- Q4 15:00CIN 4th & 1 at TEM 46, up 8Numbers favored go for it by 2.9 ptsPunted · 77.0% before the snapGo for it77.3%70% to convertField goal72.7%−4.623% to makePuntTheir call74.5%−2.9average punt
- Q4 13:03TEM 4th & 9 at TEM 14, down 8Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.3% before the snapGo for it18.2%−2.630% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call20.8%average punt
- Q4 11:03CIN 4th & 2 at TEM 37, up 8Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call81.2%57% to convertField goal78.2%−3.140% to makePunt78.1%−3.2average punt
- Q4 9:09TEM 4th & 5 at TEM 42, down 8Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.4% before the snapGo for it19.1%−0.441% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call19.6%average punt
- Q4 0:25CIN 4th & 11 at TEM 42, up 8Close callPunted · 94.7% before the snapGo for it94.6%−0.427% to convertField goal95.0%30% to makePuntTheir call94.3%−0.7average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CIN made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q2 12:39CIN Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call56.3%97% to makeGo for two56.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:28CIN Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call70.3%97% to makeGo for two70.2%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartTEMDrive 1PUNT6 plays · 17 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
CINDrive 2PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0057% → 57%
TEMDrive 3PUNT10 plays · 31 yds · 0:3243% → 43%
CINDrive 4PUNT7 plays · 15 yds · 0:0056% → 56%
Q1 7:45
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+4
44.1%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Johnny Holton for 4 yds to the Cincy 34Similar
Q1 7:45
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+6
44.0%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Max Morrison for 6 yds to the Cincy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
43.5%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Alex Chisum, broken up by Tavon YoungSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 5FG12 plays · 68 yds · 5:3045% → 48%
Q1 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+17
44.7%
P.J. Walker pass complete to Jalen Fitzpatrick for 17 yds to the Temp 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:50
3RD & 9
OWN 38
+10
45.2%
P.J. Walker pass complete to Jalen Fitzpatrick for 10 yds to the Temp 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:50
3RD & 8
50
+39
45.9%
P.J. Walker pass complete to Colin Thompson for 39 yds to the Cincy 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
46.8%
P.J. Walker pass complete to Jalen Fitzpatrick for 2 yds to the Cincy 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 6PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 0:1153% → 52%
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 28
-4
47.4%
Gunner Kiel run for a loss of 4 yards to the Cincy 21 Gunner Kiel fumbled, recovered by Cincy Gunner KielSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 15
OWN 21
+12
48.4%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Mike Boone for 12 yds to the Cincy 33Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 33
0
48.0%
Sam Geraci punt for 48 yds, fair catch by John Christopher at the Temp 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 7FUMBLE1 play · -14 yds · 0:0049% → 49%
Q2 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
48.5%
P.J. Walker sacked by Jeff Luc for a loss of 7 yards to the Temp 3 P.J. Walker fumbled, recovered by Cincy Leviticus Payne , return for 0 yards , return for 2 yds to the Temp 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 8TD2 plays · 3 yds · 0:5055% → 60%
TEMDrive 9PUNT10 plays · 33 yds · 0:0043% → 42%
Q2 12:32
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+16
42.2%
P.J. Walker pass complete to Jalen Fitzpatrick for 16 yds to the Temp 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:32
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+17
42.6%
P.J. Walker pass complete to Brandon Shippen for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:32
1ST & 10
50
+18
44.7%
P.J. Walker pass complete to Romond Deloatch for 18 yds to the Cincy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:32
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-3
45.5%
P.J. Walker sacked by Nick Temple for a loss of 3 yards to the Cincy 35Similar
Q2 12:32
3RD & 13
OPP 35
-15
43.3%
P.J. Walker sacked by Nick Temple for a loss of 15 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 10PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0059% → 57%
Q2 7:58
3RD & 11
OWN 19
+3
42.6%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Johnny Holton for 3 yds to the Cincy 22Similar
Q2 7:58
4TH & 8
OWN 22
+5
43.3%
GERACI, Sam punt 41 yards to the TU37, CHRISTOPHER,J return to the TU42 (WILLIAMS, Hosey;TYSON, Mike), PENALTY TU roughing the kicker 5 yards to the CIN27, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 11PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0041% → 40%
CINDrive 12PUNT5 plays · 17 yds · 0:0060% → 59%
TEMDrive 13PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0041% → 39%
Q2 3:34
4TH & 5
OWN 28
0
39.2%
Alex Starzyk punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Shaq Washington at the Cincy 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 14TD10 plays · 63 yds · 1:3761% → 74%
Q2 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
38.6%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Shaq Washington for 5 yds to the Cincy 42Similar
Q2 2:05
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+5
37.8%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Max Morrison for 5 yds to the Cincy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
37.6%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Mekale McKay for 1 yd to the Cincy 48Similar
Q2 2:05
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+14
37.8%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Mekale McKay for 14 yds to the Temp 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
37.0%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Mekale McKay, broken up by Sean ChandlerSimilar
Q2 2:05
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+20
37.2%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Shaq Washington for 20 yds to the Temp 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 15END OF HALF2 plays · 7 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 16PUNT11 plays · 29 yds · 2:4571% → 72%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
29.2%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Johnny Holton for 8 yds to the Cincy 45Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+6
28.5%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Johnny Holton for 6 yds to the Temp 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 44
+7
28.8%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Mekale McKay for 7 yds to the Temp 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 17FG14 plays · 67 yds · 5:0727% → 31%
TEMDrive 19MISSED FG5 plays · 9 yds · 1:3934% → 28%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 20PUNT7 plays · 32 yds · 0:0073% → 72%
Q3 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+22
26.8%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Nate Cole for 22 yds to the Cincy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:12
1ST & 15
OWN 37
+31
26.5%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Rod Moore for 31 yds to the Temp 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:12
3RD & 9
OPP 31
-17
23.9%
Gunner Kiel sacked by Sharif Finch for a loss of 17 yards to the Temp 48 CINCINNATI Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 21PUNT6 plays · 31 yds · 0:0024% → 23%
CINDrive 22PUNT7 plays · 33 yds · 1:0377% → 79%
TEMDrive 23PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0020% → 18%
Q4 13:03
2ND & 22
OWN 1
+8
19.0%
P.J. Walker pass complete to Brodrick Yancy for 8 yds to the Temp 9Similar
Q4 13:03
3RD & 14
OWN 9
+5
18.2%
P.J. Walker pass complete to Jalen Fitzpatrick for 5 yds to the Temp 14Similar
Q4 13:03
4TH & 9
OWN 14
0
18.4%
Alex Starzyk punt for 31 yds , Shaq Washington returns for no gain to the Temp 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 24DOWNS4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0086% → 83%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 25PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0020% → 19%
Q4 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
19.5%
P.J. Walker pass complete to Colin Thompson for no gain to the Temp 37Similar
Q4 9:09
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+4
19.2%
P.J. Walker pass complete to Kenneth Harper for 4 yds to the Temp 41Similar
Q4 9:09
4TH & 5
OWN 42
0
18.5%
Alex Starzyk punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Shaq Washington at the Cincy 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 26PUNT17 plays · 33 yds · 6:4289% → 97%
Q4 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
11.0%
Mike Boone run for 14 yds to the Cincy 39 CINCINNATI Penalty, Offensive holding (Johnny Holton) to the Cincy 29Similar
Q4 2:01
3RD & 14
OWN 43
+16
4.9%
KIEL, Gunner pass incomplete to HOLTON, Johnny (YOUNG,Tavon), PENALTY TU pass interference (YOUNG,Tavon) 16 yards to the TU41, 1ST DOWN CIN, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:25
4TH & 11
OPP 42
+41
3.3%
Sam Geraci punt for 41 yds, downed at the Temp 1 TEMPLE Penalty, roughing the kicker ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 27FUMBLE2 plays · 3 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:28
Mike Boone run for 1 yd for a TD, (Andrew Gantz KICK)
-8
KEY PLAY · Q4 7:07
Mike Boone run for 14 yds to the Cincy 39 CINCINNATI Penalty, Offensive holding (Johnny Holton) to the Cincy 29
-7.5
TD · Q2 12:39
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Mekale McKay for 3 yds for a TD, (Andrew Gantz KICK)
-5