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HOU

Houston 35 at SMU 9

SMU
2014 · Week 14 · Nov 28, 2014 · Gerald J. Ford Stadium
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Win probability · SMU
modelSMU aheadHOU aheadconfidence bandkey playSMU scoreHOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDSAFETYTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 6:09 · Jackson Koonce punt for 49 yds, downed at the Houst 2
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+55.0+27.50−27.5−55.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 69Pregame prior−35.9Home team on offense−4.7Score differential−1.8Garbage-time factor−1.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:22: Matt Davis pass complete to Jeremiah Gaines for 67 yds for a TD, (Cody Rademacher KICK) — SMU win probability +7.4 pts (now 23%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 11:34: Kenneth Farrow run for 11 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bullard KICK) — HOU win probability +8.2 pts (now 86%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:10: Greg Ward Jr. run for 4 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bullard KICK) — HOU win probability +6.5 pts (now 91%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 2:29: Greg Ward Jr. run for 5 yds to the SMU 18 — HOU win probability +2.9 pts (now 91%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 1:25: Kenneth Farrow run for 14 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bullard KICK) — HOU win probability +6.2 pts (now 98%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SMU made the numbers' call on 9 of 11HOU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 15:00SMU 4th & 16 at SMU 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.7%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:23SMU 4th & 5 at SMU 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.2%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:35HOU 4th & 17 at SMU 19, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.2%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.4%
    77% to make
    Punt
    88.8%−0.6
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:35SMU 4th & 3 at SMU 27, down 7
    Close callPunted · 10.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 6:00HOU 4th & 9 at SMU 32, up 7
    Close callWent for it · 89.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    89.0%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    89.0%
    51% to make
    Punt
    88.9%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q1 3:48SMU 4th & 2 at SMU 49, down 7
    Close callPunted · 12.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.1%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.9%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 15:00HOU 4th & 5 at HOU 41, up 7
    Close callWent for it · 87.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.4%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    87.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 15:00SMU 4th & 14 at HOU 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.4%−0.5
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.9%
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:59SMU 4th & 12 at HOU 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 14.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.8%−0.7
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    14.5%
    74% to make
    Punt
    11.7%−2.8
    average punt
  10. Q2 6:59HOU 4th & 6 at HOU 25, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.7%−0.3
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.0%
    average punt
  11. Q2 6:09SMU 4th & 10 at SMU 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.5%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.9%
    average punt
  12. Q2 2:13HOU 4th & 5 at SMU 39, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 74.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.8%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    73.1%−0.7
    36% to make
    Punt
    72.8%−1.0
    average punt
  13. Q3 11:34SMU 4th & 10 at HOU 47, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.5%−0.9
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.4%
    average punt
  14. Q3 1:25SMU 4th & 8 at SMU 27, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.3%−0.9
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.2%
    average punt
  15. Q4 15:00HOU 4th & 14 at HOU 36, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.4%−1.0
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.5%
    average punt
  16. Q4 7:39SMU 4th & 7 at HOU 48, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.2%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.9%−0.3
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:40SMU 4th & 10 at SMU 26, down 26
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SMU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1HOU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 13:30HOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 2:22SMU Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 11:34HOU Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 3:10HOU Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 1:25HOU Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 4:46HOU Touchdown, up 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SMUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-8
6.1%
Matt Davis sacked by Steven Taylor for a loss of 8 yards to the SMU 17 Matt Davis fumbled, , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 18
OWN 17
+2
6.1%
Luke Seeker run for 2 yds to the SMU 19Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 16
OWN 19
0
6.1%
Matt Davis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 16
OWN 19
0
6.1%
Jackson Koonce punt for 19 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SMU 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 2TD
1 play · 38 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+38
6.4%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 38 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bullard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q1 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
6.4%
Prescott Line run for 1 yd to the SMU 29Similar
Q1 13:23
2ND & 9
OWN 29
0
6.4%
Matt Davis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:23
3RD & 9
OWN 29
0
6.4%
Matt Davis run for 10 yds to the SMU 39 SMU Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the SMU 29Similar
Q1 13:23
3RD & 9
OWN 29
+4
6.4%
Matt Davis run for 4 yds to the SMU 33Similar
Q1 13:23
4TH & 5
OWN 33
0
6.4%
Jackson Koonce punt for 31 yds, downed at the Houst 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 4MISSED FG
9 plays · 45 yds · 3:5493% → 92%
Q1 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
6.8%
Ryan Jackson run for no gain to the Houst 36Similar
Q1 11:29
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+11
6.8%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Deontay Greenberry for 11 yds to the Houst 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+29
6.8%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 29 yds to the SMU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:29
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+12
6.7%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Ryan Jackson for 12 yds to the SMU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:29
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
6.7%
Ryan Jackson run for 2 yds to the SMU 10Similar
Q1 11:29
2ND & 8
OPP 10
-5
6.7%
HOUSTON Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SMU 15Similar
Q1 11:29
2ND & 13
OPP 15
-4
6.8%
Kenneth Farrow run for a loss of 4 yards to the SMU 19Similar
Q1 11:29
3RD & 17
OPP 19
0
6.8%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Deontay GreenberrySimilar
Q1 7:35
4TH & 17
OPP 19
+36
7.7%
Kyle Bullard 36 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q1 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
7.8%
Matt Davis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:35
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+4
7.8%
Matt Davis pass complete to Darius Joseph for 4 yds to the SMU 24Similar
Q1 7:35
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+3
7.7%
Matt Davis run for 3 yds to the SMU 27Similar
Q1 7:35
4TH & 3
OWN 27
0
7.7%
Jackson Koonce punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 6DOWNS
7 plays · 38 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
8.0%
Kenneth Farrow run for 6 yds to the Houst 44Similar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+9
7.9%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 9 yds to the SMU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+14
7.9%
WARD Jr., Greg pass incomplete to DUNBAR, Steven, PENALTY SMU pass interference (RICHARDSON,H) 14 yards to the SMU33, 1ST DOWN HOU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
7.9%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 1 yd to the SMU 32Similar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 9
OPP 32
0
7.9%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Kenneth FarrowSimilar
Q1 6:00
3RD & 9
OPP 32
0
7.9%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Deontay GreenberrySimilar
Q1 6:00
4TH & 9
OPP 32
+8
8.1%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 8 yds to the SMU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 25 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q1 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+8
8.8%
Matt Davis run for 8 yds to the SMU 32Similar
Q1 3:48
2ND & 2
OWN 32
-1
9.0%
Prescott Line run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 31Similar
Q1 3:48
3RD & 3
OWN 31
+10
8.8%
Matt Davis pass complete to Prescott Line for 10 yds to the SMU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
9.1%
K.C. Nlemchi run for 1 yd to the SMU 42Similar
Q1 3:48
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+3
9.0%
Matt Davis pass complete to Deion Sanders Jr. for 3 yds to the SMU 45Similar
Q1 3:48
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+4
9.0%
Matt Davis run for 4 yds to the SMU 49Similar
Q1 3:48
4TH & 2
OWN 49
+15
9.0%
Jackson Koonce punt for 30 yds SMU Penalty, kick catching interference (-15 Yards) to the Houst 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 8DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0091% → 90%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
9.5%
Ryan Jackson run for 4 yds to the Houst 40Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+1
9.3%
Kenneth Farrow run for 1 yd to the Houst 41Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 41
0
9.4%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Deontay Greenberry, broken up by Darrion RichardsonSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 41
+4
9.7%
Logan Piper run for 4 yds to the Houst 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:0011% → 10%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
10.5%
Matt Davis run for 4 yds to the Houst 41Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 14
OPP 49
0
9.6%
Jackson Koonce punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 41
-3
10.5%
Matt Davis sacked by Steven Taylor for a loss of 3 yards to the Houst 44Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 44
-5
10.2%
Darius Joseph run for a loss of 5 yards to the Houst 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 10INT
4 plays · 20 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q2 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+17
10.5%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Markeith Ambles for 17 yds to the Houst 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
10.2%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Steven DunbarSimilar
Q2 12:26
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+3
10.3%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 3 yds to the Houst 40Similar
Q2 12:26
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+4
10.2%
Greg Ward Jr. pass intercepted John Bordano return for 4 yds to the Houst 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 11MISSED FG
9 plays · 21 yds · 4:1712% → 12%
Q2 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
12.0%
Matt Davis pass complete to Deion Sanders Jr. for 7 yds to the Houst 35Similar
Q2 11:16
2ND & 3
OPP 35
+6
12.3%
Matt Davis run for 6 yds to the Houst 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+7
12.3%
Matt Davis pass complete to Deion Sanders Jr. for 7 yds to the Houst 22Similar
Q2 11:16
2ND & 3
OPP 22
+3
12.3%
K.C. Nlemchi run for 3 yds to the Houst 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-15
12.3%
DAVIS,Matt rush for 7 yards to the HOU12 (HARRIS, Trevor), PENALTY SMU illegal block (BRIGGS,C) 15 yards to the HOU34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:16
1ST & 25
OPP 34
0
12.1%
Matt Davis run for no gain to the Houst 34Similar
Q2 11:16
2ND & 25
OPP 34
+4
11.8%
Matt Davis pass complete to Luke Seeker for 4 yds to the Houst 30Similar
Q2 11:16
3RD & 21
OPP 30
+9
11.4%
Matt Davis pass complete to Deion Sanders Jr. for 9 yds to the Houst 21Similar
Q2 6:59
4TH & 12
OPP 21
+38
11.8%
Cody Rademacher 38 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by N/A return for no gain to the Houst 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q2 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
11.7%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 4 yds to the Houst 25Similar
Q2 6:59
2ND & 6
OWN 25
0
11.5%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Steven Dunbar, broken up by Jesse MontgomerySimilar
Q2 6:59
3RD & 6
OWN 25
0
11.9%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Deontay Greenberry, broken up by Jonathan YengaSimilar
Q2 6:59
4TH & 6
OWN 25
0
12.3%
Logan Piper punt for 36 yds, downed at the SMU 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 10 yds · 0:0013% → 12%
Q2 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+10
12.7%
Matt Davis run for 10 yds to the SMU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
13.3%
Matt Davis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:09
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
13.1%
Matt Davis run for no gain to the SMU 49Similar
Q2 6:09
3RD & 10
OWN 49
0
12.4%
Matt Davis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:09
4TH & 10
OWN 49
0
12.1%
Jackson Koonce punt for 49 yds, downed at the Houst 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 14SF
3 plays · -2 yds · 1:1487% → 85%
Q2 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+2
12.7%
Kenneth Farrow run for 2 yds to the Houst 4Similar
Q2 4:41
2ND & 8
OWN 4
+3
12.8%
Kenneth Farrow run for 3 yds to the Houst 7Similar
Q2 3:27
3RD & 5
OWN 7
0
15.4%
Team SafetySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 15TD
4 plays · 60 yds · 0:5816% → 23%
Q2 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-7
16.3%
Matt Davis sacked by Trevor Harris for a loss of 7 yards to the SMU 33Similar
Q2 3:20
2ND & 17
OWN 33
0
15.1%
Matt Davis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:22
3RD & 17
OWN 33
+67
22.5%
Matt Davis pass complete to Jeremiah Gaines for 67 yds for a TD, (Cody Rademacher KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 16END OF HALF
14 plays · 42 yds · 2:1077% → 77%
Q2 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+10
22.6%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Ryan Jackson for 10 yds to the Houst 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
21.8%
Ryan Jackson run for 4 yds to the Houst 42Similar
Q2 2:13
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+14
21.1%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Markeith Ambles for 14 yds to the SMU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:13
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
20.7%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Markeith AmblesSimilar
Q2 2:13
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
20.7%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Wayne Beadle for no gain to the SMU 44Similar
Q2 2:13
3RD & 10
OPP 44
+5
21.5%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Kenneth Farrow for 5 yds to the SMU 39Similar
Q2 2:13
4TH & 5
OPP 39
+13
21.9%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 13 yds to the SMU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:13
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-3
19.9%
Greg Ward Jr. sacked by Stephon Sanders for a loss of 3 yards to the SMU 29Similar
Q2 0:12
2ND & 13
OPP 29
+4
22.0%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 4 yds to the SMU 25Similar
Q2 0:03
3RD & 9
OPP 25
-5
22.7%
Greg Ward Jr. sacked by Zach Wood for a loss of 5 yards to the SMU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 17TD
10 plays · 64 yds · 3:2276% → 86%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
24.5%
Kenneth Farrow run for 2 yds to the Houst 38Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+16
23.9%
Kenneth Farrow run for 16 yds to the SMU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+9
22.8%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 9 yds to the SMU 37Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 1
OPP 37
+7
22.6%
Kenneth Farrow run for 7 yds to the SMU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
22.1%
Kenneth Farrow run for 5 yds to the SMU 25Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+5
21.9%
Kenneth Farrow run for 5 yds to the SMU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-10
21.9%
FARROW, Kenneth rush for no gain to the SMU20 (SANDERS,S), PENALTY HOU holding 10 yards to the SMU30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 20
OPP 30
+19
22.6%
Ryan Jackson run for 19 yds to the SMU 11Similar
Q3 11:34
2ND & 1
OPP 11
+11
14.4%
Kenneth Farrow run for 11 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bullard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 18PUNT
10 plays · 28 yds · 0:0018% → 17%
Q3 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
17.5%
Matt Davis pass complete to Jeremiah Gaines for 9 yds to the SMU 34Similar
Q3 11:34
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+5
18.8%
Matt Davis run for 5 yds to the SMU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
18.2%
Matt Davis run for 1 yd to the SMU 40Similar
Q3 11:34
2ND & 9
OWN 40
0
18.2%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Darius Joseph, broken up by Trevor HarrisSimilar
Q3 11:34
3RD & 9
OWN 40
+13
17.4%
DAVIS,Matt pass incomplete to THOMPSON,D, PENALTY HOU pass interference (WILSON, Brandon) 13 yards to the HOU47, 1ST DOWN SMU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
19.7%
Matt Davis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:34
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
19.5%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Luke SeekerSimilar
Q3 11:34
3RD & 10
OPP 47
0
18.2%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Darius Joseph, broken up by Howard WilsonSimilar
Q3 11:34
4TH & 10
OPP 47
0
17.1%
Jackson Koonce punt for 46 yds, downed at the Houst 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 19TD
16 plays · 99 yds · 6:0282% → 91%
Q3 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+10
18.2%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Markeith Ambles for 10 yds to the Houst 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+11
18.0%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Wayne Beadle for 11 yds to the Houst 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
17.8%
Ryan Jackson run for 2 yds to the Houst 24Similar
Q3 9:12
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+10
17.9%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Deontay Greenberry for 10 yds to the Houst 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
17.3%
Ryan Jackson run for 2 yds to the Houst 36Similar
Q3 9:12
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+25
17.2%
Ryan Jackson run for 25 yds to the SMU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:12
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
16.1%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Deontay Greenberry, broken up by Horace RichardsonSimilar
Q3 9:12
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+15
16.1%
WARD Jr., Greg pass incomplete to DUNBAR, Steven, PENALTY SMU pass interference (RICHARDSON,H) 15 yards to the SMU24, 1ST DOWN HOU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:12
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
15.3%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Deontay Greenberry for 3 yds to the SMU 21Similar
Q3 9:12
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+6
15.3%
Ryan Jackson run for 6 yds to the SMU 15Similar
Q3 9:12
3RD & 1
OPP 15
+2
16.0%
Kenneth Farrow run for 2 yds to the SMU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:12
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
15.3%
Kenneth Farrow run for 2 yds to the SMU 11Similar
Q3 9:12
2ND & 8
OPP 11
+8
15.3%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Ryan Jackson for 8 yds to the SMU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
15.3%
Kenneth Farrow run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 4Similar
Q3 9:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
15.3%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Deontay GreenberrySimilar
Q3 3:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
8.7%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 4 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bullard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 20FUMBLE
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:0011% → 12%
Q3 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
11.4%
K.C. Nlemchi run for 3 yds to the SMU 28Similar
Q3 3:10
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-6
11.6%
Matt Davis sacked by Matthew Adams for a loss of 6 yards to the SMU 23 Matt Davis fumbled, recovered by Houst Gavin Stansbury , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 21TD
3 plays · 23 yds · 1:0491% → 98%
Q3 2:29
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
8.7%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 5 yds to the SMU 18Similar
Q3 2:29
2ND & 5
OPP 18
+4
8.7%
Kenneth Farrow run for 4 yds to the SMU 14Similar
Q3 1:25
3RD & 1
OPP 14
+14
2.4%
Kenneth Farrow run for 14 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bullard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q3 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
4.9%
K.C. Nlemchi run for 2 yds to the SMU 27Similar
Q3 1:25
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
5.0%
Matt Davis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:25
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
4.9%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Darius JosephSimilar
Q3 1:25
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
4.9%
Jackson Koonce punt for 33 yds, downed at the Houst 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:3498% → 97%
Q3 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
2.5%
Ryan Jackson run for 2 yds to the Houst 42Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 42
-3
2.4%
Ryan Jackson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Houst 39Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 39
-3
2.5%
Greg Ward Jr. sacked by Jonathan Yenga for a loss of 3 yards to the Houst 36Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 14
OWN 36
0
2.7%
Logan Piper punt for 52 yds, downed at the SMU 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 24DOWNS
15 plays · 40 yds · 5:564% → 3%
Q4 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+13
3.7%
Matt Davis run for 13 yds to the SMU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
3.7%
Matt Davis pass complete to K.C. Nlemchi for 5 yds to the SMU 30Similar
Q4 13:35
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
3.8%
Matt Davis run for 1 yd to the SMU 31Similar
Q4 13:35
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-5
3.8%
SMU Penalty, false start (Kris Weeks) to the SMU 26Similar
Q4 13:35
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+9
3.6%
Matt Davis pass complete to Darius Joseph for 9 yds to the SMU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-10
3.8%
DAVIS,Matt pass complete to GAINES,J for 10 yards to the SMU45 (WILSON, Howard), PENALTY SMU holding (WEEKS,Kris) 10 yards to the SMU25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:35
1ST & 20
OWN 25
-10
3.7%
DAVIS,Matt pass complete to NELSON,Stephen for 8 yards to the SMU33 (EILAND, Eric), PENALTY SMU holding (WEEKS,Kris) 10 yards to the SMU15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:35
1ST & 30
OWN 15
+6
3.7%
Matt Davis run for 6 yds to the SMU 21Similar
Q4 13:35
2ND & 24
OWN 21
+10
3.6%
Matt Davis pass complete to Darius Joseph for 10 yds to the SMU 31Similar
Q4 13:35
3RD & 14
OWN 31
+18
3.6%
Matt Davis run for 18 yds to the SMU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
4.0%
K.C. Nlemchi run for 2 yds to the Houst 49Similar
Q4 13:35
2ND & 8
OPP 49
0
4.0%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Darius JosephSimilar
Q4 13:35
3RD & 8
OPP 49
+1
4.0%
Matt Davis pass complete to Darius Joseph for 1 yd to the Houst 48Similar
Q4 7:39
4TH & 7
OPP 48
0
3.4%
Matt Davis pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 25TD
5 plays · 52 yds · 2:4098% → 100%
Q4 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
1.6%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Deontay Greenberry for 5 yds to the SMU 47Similar
Q4 7:26
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+33
1.5%
Kenneth Farrow run for 33 yds to the SMU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:26
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
1.5%
Kenneth Farrow run for 2 yds to the SMU 12Similar
Q4 7:26
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+7
1.5%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Deontay Greenberry for 7 yds to the SMU 5Similar
Q4 4:46
3RD & 1
OPP 5
+5
0.2%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 5 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bullard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-1
0.1%
Luke Seeker run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 25Similar
Q4 4:40
2ND & 11
OWN 25
0
0.1%
Kolney Cassel pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:40
3RD & 11
OWN 25
+1
0.1%
K.C. Nlemchi run for 1 yd to the SMU 26Similar
Q4 4:40
4TH & 10
OWN 26
0
0.1%
Jackson Koonce punt for 45 yds , Demarcus Ayers returns for no gain to the Houst 31 Demarcus Ayers fumbled, recovered by Houst Demarcus AyersSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 27END OF GAME
5 plays · 21 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
0.2%
Randall Hollimon run for 5 yds to the Houst 36Similar
Q4 3:11
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+7
0.2%
John O'Korn pass complete to Derek McLemore for 7 yds to the Houst 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
0.2%
Randall Hollimon run for 4 yds to the Houst 47Similar
Q4 3:11
2ND & 6
OWN 47
-1
0.2%
Randall Hollimon run for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 46Similar
Q4 3:11
3RD & 7
OWN 46
+4
0.2%
Randall Hollimon run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:34
Kenneth Farrow run for 11 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bullard KICK)
-8.2
TD · Q2 2:22
Matt Davis pass complete to Jeremiah Gaines for 67 yds for a TD, (Cody Rademacher KICK)
+7.4
TD · Q3 3:10
Greg Ward Jr. run for 4 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bullard KICK)
-6.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com