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ECU

East Carolina 49 at Tulsa 32

TLSA
2014 · Week 14 · Nov 28, 2014 · Chapman Stadium
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Win probability · TLSA
modelTLSA aheadECU aheadconfidence bandkey playTLSA scoreECU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 11:38 · Shane Carden run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 15 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+47.0+23.50−23.5−47.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 11Pregame prior−38.6Home team on offense−0.3Score differential−0.2Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:14: Shane Carden pass complete to Justin Hardy for 4 yds for a TD, (Warren Harvey KICK) — ECU win probability +7.8 pts (now 86%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:21: Shane Carden pass complete to Bryce Williams for 12 yds for a TD, (Warren Harvey KICK) — ECU win probability +9.1 pts (now 87%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:52: Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 30 yds for a TD, (Dane Evans pass to Joshua Atkinson for Two-Point Conversion) — TLSA win probability +17.0 pts (now 35%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  4. TD · Q3 5:19: Cory Hunter run for 1 yd for a TD, (Warren Harvey KICK) — ECU win probability +12.0 pts (now 87%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 12:35: Shane Carden run for 2 yds for a TD, (Warren Harvey KICK) — ECU win probability +8.5 pts (now 96%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TLSA made the numbers' call on 7 of 9ECU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 11:38ECU 4th & 1 at TLSA 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    84.3%−0.1
    75% to make
    Punt
    83.9%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:51ECU 4th & 17 at ECU 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.5%−0.3
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:10ECU 4th & 1 at TLSA 36, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 79.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    79.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    79.3%−0.4
    42% to make
    Punt
    79.3%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:30TLSA 4th & 1 at TLSA 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    21.7%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:07TLSA 4th & 4 at ECU 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    24.3%−0.3
    54% to make
    Punt
    23.9%−0.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:37ECU 4th & 2 at ECU 39, tied
    Close callPunted · 75.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.2%−0.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:09TLSA 4th & 10 at TLSA 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.2%−0.5
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:48ECU 4th & 1 at ECU 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 75.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    75.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    74.7%−1.2
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:09ECU 4th & 1 at TLSA 1, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.2%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    70.0%−2.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    64.9%−7.3
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:08TLSA 4th & 1 at TLSA 11, tied
    Close callPunted · 29.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.2%−0.3
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:44TLSA 4th & 8 at ECU 17, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 22.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.9%−1.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    22.0%
    80% to make
    Punt
    14.3%−7.7
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:07TLSA 4th & 12 at ECU 31, down 11
    Close callWent for it · 16.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.1%−0.9
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    16.0%
    54% to make
    Punt
    15.1%−0.9
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:29TLSA 4th & 9 at TLSA 33, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.3%−1.5
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.8%
    average punt
  14. Q3 1:23ECU 4th & 2 at ECU 45, up 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 83.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.4%−1.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:47TLSA 4th & 5 at TLSA 22, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.5%−0.9
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.4%
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:23ECU 4th & 5 at TLSA 23, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.2%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.2%
    70% to make
    Punt
    96.0%−1.2
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:13TLSA 4th & 7 at ECU 31, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.3%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    2.1%−0.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    1.9%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TLSA made the numbers' call on 2 of 3ECU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 11:23ECU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:54TLSA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:51ECU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:14ECU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 10:21ECU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 5:52TLSA Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    26.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    26.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 5:19ECU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 12:35ECU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 11:23ECU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.3%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.5%
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 6:41TLSA Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.1%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ECUDrive 1TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:2489% → 89%
Q1 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
10.7%
Breon Allen run for 7 yds to the ECaro 32Similar
Q1 14:38
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+9
10.8%
Shane Carden pass complete to Justin Hardy for 9 yds to the ECaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
10.9%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Justin HardySimilar
Q1 14:04
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+16
11.0%
Shane Carden pass complete to Justin Hardy for 16 yds to the Tulsa 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
11.1%
Breon Allen run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 39Similar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+10
11.2%
Marquez Grayson run for 10 yds to the Tulsa 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:03
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
11.3%
Marquez Grayson run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 27Similar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+7
11.5%
Shane Carden pass complete to Breon Allen for 7 yds to the Tulsa 20Similar
Q1 12:03
3RD & 1
OPP 20
0
11.7%
Breon Allen run for no gain to the Tulsa 20Similar
Q1 11:38
4TH & 1
OPP 20
+5
12.0%
Shane Carden run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:23
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
11.4%
Shane Carden pass complete to Bryce Williams for 15 yds for a TD, (Warren Harvey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 2TD
5 plays · 85 yds · 1:0912% → 13%
Q1 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
11.7%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 1 yd to the Tulsa 16Similar
Q1 10:31
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+67
11.8%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 67 yds to the ECaro 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:21
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+12
12.2%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 12 yds to the ECaro 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
13.2%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 5 yds for a TD, (Carl Salazar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 3PUNT TD
6 plays · -7 yds · 0:4687% → 85%
Q1 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-2
13.0%
Breon Allen run for a loss of 2 yards to the ECaro 11Similar
Q1 9:13
2ND & 12
OWN 11
0
13.2%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Isaiah JonesSimilar
Q1 9:05
3RD & 12
OWN 11
-5
13.4%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (-5 Yards) to the ECaro 6Similar
Q1 8:56
3RD & 17
OWN 6
0
13.4%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Isaiah JonesSimilar
Q1 8:51
4TH & 17
OWN 6
0
14.7%
TEAM punt blocked by Luke Snider blocked by Luke Snider Matt Hickman return for no gain for a TD, (Carl Salazar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 4FUMBLE
9 plays · 44 yds · 2:2085% → 84%
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
14.7%
Breon Allen run for 1 yd to the ECaro 20Similar
Q1 8:00
2ND & 9
OWN 20
0
15.1%
Shane Carden pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:50
3RD & 9
OWN 20
+20
15.4%
Shane Carden pass complete to Justin Hardy for 20 yds to the ECaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
15.1%
TULSA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Tulsa 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:32
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
15.0%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Bryce WilliamsSimilar
Q1 7:23
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+7
15.1%
Shane Carden pass complete to Anthony Scott for 7 yds to the Tulsa 38Similar
Q1 6:30
3RD & 3
OPP 38
+2
15.7%
Shane Carden pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 2 yds to the Tulsa 36Similar
Q1 6:10
4TH & 1
OPP 36
-1
16.2%
Shane Carden run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 37 Shane Carden fumbled, recovered by ECaro Shane CardenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 5INT
3 plays · 2 yds · 1:0917% → 18%
Q1 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
16.9%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 43Similar
Q1 5:02
2ND & 4
OWN 43
-4
18.0%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for a loss of 4 yards to the Tulsa 39Similar
Q1 4:48
3RD & 8
OWN 39
+22
17.7%
Dane Evans pass intercepted Zeek Bigger return for 22 yds to the Tulsa 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 6TD
7 plays · 33 yds · 1:5283% → 84%
Q1 4:43
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
16.7%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Isaiah JonesSimilar
Q1 4:35
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+5
16.8%
Marquez Grayson run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 28Similar
Q1 3:51
3RD & 5
OPP 28
+8
17.7%
Shane Carden pass complete to Jimmy Williams for 8 yds to the Tulsa 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:38
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
17.5%
Shane Carden pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:16
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+4
17.8%
Marquez Grayson run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 16Similar
Q1 2:51
3RD & 6
OPP 16
+16
15.8%
Shane Carden pass complete to Jimmy Williams for 16 yds for a TD, (Warren Harvey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 7DOWNS
16 plays · 44 yds · 5:3117% → 21%
Q1 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
17.1%
James Flanders run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 24Similar
Q1 2:11
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
17.3%
Dane Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:11
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+5
16.9%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Tulsa 29Similar
Q1 1:53
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+11
17.4%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 11 yds to the Tulsa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
18.1%
James Flanders run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 44Similar
Q1 1:30
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+5
18.5%
James Flanders run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 49Similar
Q1 1:00
3RD & 1
OWN 49
0
18.7%
James Flanders run for no gain to the Tulsa 49Similar
Q1 0:30
4TH & 1
OWN 49
+2
18.8%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 2 yds to the ECaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
19.9%
James Flanders run for 1 yd to the ECaro 48Similar
Q2 14:20
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+2
20.2%
Dane Evans run for 2 yds to the ECaro 46Similar
Q2 13:45
3RD & 7
OPP 46
+9
20.5%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 9 yds to the ECaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
21.2%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 6 yds to the ECaro 31Similar
Q2 12:30
2ND & 4
OPP 31
0
22.2%
D'Angelo Brewer run for no gain to the ECaro 31Similar
Q2 12:10
3RD & 4
OPP 31
0
22.0%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Joshua AtkinsonSimilar
Q2 12:07
4TH & 4
OPP 31
0
21.3%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keyarris GarrettSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:2380% → 79%
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
19.6%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Justin HardySimilar
Q2 11:42
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+9
20.0%
Shane Carden pass complete to Breon Allen for 9 yds to the ECaro 40Similar
Q2 11:05
3RD & 1
OWN 40
-1
19.4%
Shane Carden pass complete to Anthony Scott for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 39Similar
Q2 10:37
4TH & 2
OWN 39
0
20.8%
Worth Gregory punt for 61 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:0022% → 22%
Q2 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
22.2%
Dane Evans pass complete to Colby Scott for no gain to the Tulsa 20Similar
Q2 9:46
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
22.5%
D'Angelo Brewer run for no gain to the Tulsa 20Similar
Q2 9:18
3RD & 10
OWN 20
0
22.2%
Dane Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:09
4TH & 10
OWN 20
0
22.0%
Dalton Parks punt for 42 yds, downed at the ECaro 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 10DOWNS
16 plays · 60 yds · 6:4679% → 76%
Q2 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
20.9%
Shane Carden pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 5 yds to the ECaro 43Similar
Q2 8:39
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+4
20.5%
Breon Allen run for 4 yds to the ECaro 47Similar
Q2 8:25
3RD & 1
OWN 47
0
20.7%
Breon Allen run for no gain to the ECaro 47Similar
Q2 7:48
4TH & 1
OWN 47
+4
21.1%
Marquez Grayson run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:16
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-6
20.3%
Shane Carden sacked by Chris Hummingbird for a loss of 6 yards to the ECaro 45Similar
Q2 6:48
2ND & 16
OWN 45
+12
21.8%
Shane Carden pass complete to Justin Hardy for 12 yds to the Tulsa 43Similar
Q2 6:22
3RD & 4
OPP 43
+5
21.1%
Shane Carden run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:53
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+15
21.1%
TULSA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Tulsa 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:42
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-5
20.7%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Tulsa 28Similar
Q2 5:06
1ST & 15
OPP 28
+9
21.3%
Breon Allen run for 9 yds to the Tulsa 19Similar
Q2 4:32
2ND & 6
OPP 19
0
21.3%
Breon Allen run for no gain to the Tulsa 19Similar
Q2 3:50
3RD & 6
OPP 19
+10
22.3%
Shane Carden pass complete to Davon Grayson for 10 yds to the Tulsa 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
21.8%
Shane Carden run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 7Similar
Q2 3:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-5
22.1%
Shane Carden sacked by Derrick Alexander for a loss of 5 yards to the Tulsa 12Similar
Q2 2:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
+11
23.2%
Breon Allen run for 11 yds to the Tulsa 1Similar
Q2 2:09
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
24.3%
Shane Carden run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:4228% → 28%
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+3
28.3%
James Flanders run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 5Similar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 7
OWN 5
+2
28.6%
James Flanders run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 7Similar
Q2 1:16
3RD & 5
OWN 7
+4
27.9%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 4 yds to the Tulsa 11Similar
Q2 1:08
4TH & 1
OWN 11
+6
27.5%
Dalton Parks punt for 35 yds , Justin Hardy returns for 6 yds to the Tulsa 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 12TD
10 plays · 41 yds · 0:4777% → 86%
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
23.2%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Cam WorthySimilar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
23.5%
Shane Carden pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:55
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+6
24.4%
TULSA Penalty, Defensive Offside (6 Yards) to the Tulsa 35Similar
Q2 0:46
3RD & 4
OPP 35
+20
23.4%
Shane Carden pass complete to Cam Worthy for 20 yds to the Tulsa 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
22.8%
Breon Allen run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 10Similar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 5
OPP 10
0
22.2%
Shane Carden pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:21
3RD & 5
OPP 10
+6
22.9%
Shane Carden pass complete to Justin Hardy for 6 yds to the Tulsa 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
22.1%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
14.3%
Shane Carden pass complete to Justin Hardy for 4 yds for a TD, (Warren Harvey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
18.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulsa 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 14FG
11 plays · 55 yds · 3:0119% → 26%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
18.6%
James Flanders run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 30Similar
Q3 14:01
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+14
18.8%
James Flanders run for 14 yds to the Tulsa 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+26
20.2%
James Flanders run for 26 yds to the ECaro 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:17
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
22.2%
Dane Evans pass complete to Bishop Louie for 6 yds to the ECaro 24Similar
Q3 12:55
2ND & 4
OPP 24
+5
22.2%
James Flanders run for 5 yds to the ECaro 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:31
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-5
22.3%
TULSA Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-5 Yards) to the ECaro 24Similar
Q3 12:00
1ST & 15
OPP 24
+7
22.0%
James Flanders run for 7 yds to the ECaro 17Similar
Q3 11:55
2ND & 8
OPP 17
0
22.6%
Dane Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:50
3RD & 8
OPP 17
0
21.4%
Dane Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:44
4TH & 8
OPP 17
+35
25.8%
Carl Salazar 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 15TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:0976% → 87%
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
23.8%
Shane Carden pass complete to Justin Hardy for 8 yds to the ECaro 33Similar
Q3 11:15
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+1
22.8%
Breon Allen run for 1 yd to the ECaro 34Similar
Q3 11:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+11
23.4%
Shane Carden pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 11 yds to the ECaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+43
22.4%
Shane Carden pass complete to Cam Worthy for 43 yds to the Tulsa 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:21
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
13.3%
Shane Carden pass complete to Bryce Williams for 12 yds for a TD, (Warren Harvey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 16DOWNS
10 plays · 37 yds · 2:5315% → 14%
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
14.5%
Dane Evans run for 9 yds to the Tulsa 41Similar
Q3 9:45
2ND & 1
OWN 41
+4
15.4%
James Flanders run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
15.3%
James Flanders run for no gain to the Tulsa 45Similar
Q3 8:59
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+3
15.1%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 48Similar
Q3 8:25
3RD & 7
OWN 48
+23
15.0%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 23 yds to the ECaro 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-2
17.3%
D'Angelo Brewer run for a loss of 2 yards to the ECaro 31Similar
Q3 7:18
2ND & 12
OPP 31
0
17.1%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keyarris GarrettSimilar
Q3 7:11
3RD & 12
OPP 31
0
15.6%
Dane Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:07
4TH & 12
OPP 31
0
14.3%
Dane Evans pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 17INT
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:2086% → 86%
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
14.1%
Marquez Grayson run for 2 yds to the ECaro 33Similar
Q3 6:40
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+15
14.2%
Shane Carden pass intercepted Dwight Dobbins return for 15 yds to the ECaro 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 18TD
2 plays · 30 yds · 0:3718% → 35%
Q3 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
17.5%
James Flanders run for no gain to the ECaro 30Similar
Q3 5:52
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+30
34.5%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 30 yds for a TD, (Dane Evans pass to Joshua Atkinson for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 19TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:2473% → 87%
Q3 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
27.4%
Shane Carden pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 20 yds to the ECaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+54
25.4%
Chris Hairston run for 54 yds to the Tulsa 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
13.3%
Cory Hunter run for 1 yd for a TD, (Warren Harvey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:1116% → 14%
Q3 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
15.6%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 33Similar
Q3 3:58
2ND & 9
OWN 33
0
15.5%
Dane Evans run for no gain to the Tulsa 33Similar
Q3 3:44
3RD & 9
OWN 33
0
14.6%
Dane Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:29
4TH & 9
OWN 33
0
14.1%
Dalton Parks punt for 67 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 25 yds · 1:4484% → 84%
Q3 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+17
15.6%
Shane Carden pass complete to Cam Worthy for 17 yds to the ECaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
14.8%
Chris Hairston run for 2 yds to the ECaro 39Similar
Q3 2:30
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+6
14.2%
Shane Carden pass complete to Cam Worthy for 6 yds to the ECaro 45Similar
Q3 2:08
3RD & 2
OWN 45
0
14.5%
Chris Hairston run for no gain to the ECaro 45Similar
Q3 1:23
4TH & 2
OWN 45
0
15.8%
Worth Gregory punt for 50 yds, downed at the Tulsa 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 1:2215% → 14%
Q3 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+2
14.7%
James Flanders run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 7Similar
Q3 0:40
2ND & 8
OWN 7
+10
14.7%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Tulsa 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
15.1%
James Flanders run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 21Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 21
+1
15.2%
James Flanders run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 22Similar
Q4 14:57
3RD & 5
OWN 22
0
14.3%
Dane Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:47
4TH & 5
OWN 22
0
13.6%
Dalton Parks punt for 32 yds, downed at the ECaro 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 23TD
7 plays · 54 yds · 1:5585% → 96%
Q4 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+12
14.8%
Shane Carden pass complete to Cam Worthy for 12 yds to the Tulsa 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:19
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+27
14.6%
Chris Hairston run for 27 yds to the Tulsa 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-5
14.0%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Tulsa 20Similar
Q4 13:36
1ST & 15
OPP 20
+6
14.0%
Shane Carden pass complete to Justin Hardy for 6 yds to the Tulsa 14Similar
Q4 13:16
2ND & 9
OPP 14
+8
13.9%
Shane Carden run for 8 yds to the Tulsa 6Similar
Q4 12:45
3RD & 1
OPP 6
+4
12.9%
Marquez Grayson run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
4.5%
Shane Carden run for 2 yds for a TD, (Warren Harvey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 24INT TD
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:066% → 2%
Q4 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
5.8%
Bishop Louie run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 30Similar
Q4 12:20
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
6.1%
D'Angelo Brewer run for no gain to the Tulsa 30Similar
Q4 11:23
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+37
1.8%
Dane Evans pass intercepted for a TD Brandon Williams return for 37 yds for a TD, (Warren Harvey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 25TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 4:232% → 5%
Q4 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
1.7%
James Flanders run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 27Similar
Q4 10:36
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+10
1.7%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Tulsa 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
1.7%
James Flanders run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 41Similar
Q4 9:51
2ND & 6
OWN 41
0
1.8%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Nigel CarterSimilar
Q4 9:40
3RD & 6
OWN 41
0
1.8%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference ( Yards) to the Tulsa 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
1.8%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 44Similar
Q4 9:00
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+4
1.7%
Dane Evans run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 48Similar
Q4 8:30
3RD & 3
OWN 48
+7
1.8%
James Flanders run for 7 yds to the ECaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+11
1.6%
Dane Evans run for 11 yds to the ECaro 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:22
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
1.3%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keyarris GarrettSimilar
Q4 7:02
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+31
1.3%
Dane Evans pass complete to Joshua Atkinson for 31 yds to the ECaro 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
1.4%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Roughing Passer (2 Yards) to the ECaro 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
5.2%
James Flanders run for 1 yd for a TD, (Carl Salazar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 26MISSED FG
8 plays · 47 yds · 3:0297% → 98%
Q4 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+31
2.8%
Shane Carden pass complete to Davon Grayson for 31 yds to the Tulsa 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:48
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
2.4%
Chris Hairston run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 35Similar
Q4 5:27
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+7
2.2%
Shane Carden pass complete to Justin Hardy for 7 yds to the Tulsa 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:54
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
2.2%
Marquez Grayson run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 27Similar
Q4 4:20
2ND & 9
OPP 27
+4
1.9%
Chris Hairston run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 23Similar
Q4 3:28
3RD & 5
OPP 23
0
1.7%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Cam WorthySimilar
Q4 3:23
4TH & 5
OPP 23
+40
1.8%
Davis Plowman 40 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 27DOWNS
10 plays · 52 yds · 2:543% → 2%
Q4 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+11
2.5%
Dane Evans pass complete to Bishop Louie for 11 yds to the Tulsa 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+9
2.4%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 9 yds to the Tulsa 43Similar
Q4 2:18
2ND & 1
OWN 43
+3
2.5%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
2.1%
James Flanders run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 1:39
2ND & 6
50
0
2.2%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keevan LucasSimilar
Q4 1:28
3RD & 6
50
+16
2.1%
Bishop Louie run for 16 yds to the ECaro 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:02
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-2
2.5%
Dane Evans pass complete to Conner Floyd for a loss of 2 yards to the ECaro 36Similar
Q4 0:52
2ND & 12
OPP 36
0
2.2%
Dane Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:39
3RD & 12
OPP 36
+5
2.2%
Dane Evans run for 5 yds to the ECaro 31Similar
Q4 0:13
4TH & 7
OPP 31
+6
2.2%
Dane Evans pass complete to Nigel Carter for 6 yds to the ECaro 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 28END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
1.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:52
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 30 yds for a TD, (Dane Evans pass to Joshua Atkinson for Two-Point Conversion)
+17
TD · Q3 5:19
Cory Hunter run for 1 yd for a TD, (Warren Harvey KICK)
-12
TD · Q3 10:21
Shane Carden pass complete to Bryce Williams for 12 yds for a TD, (Warren Harvey KICK)
-9.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com