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USF

South Florida 20 at Memphis 31

MEM
2014 · Week 13 · Nov 22, 2014 · Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
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Win probability · MEM
modelMEM aheadUSF aheadconfidence bandkey playMEM scoreUSF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 13:01 · Jake Elliott 45 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+38.5+19.30−19.3−38.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 7Pregame prior+37.3Home team on offense+0.1Score differential+0.0Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:00: Paxton Lynch 5 Yd Run (Jake Elliott Kick) — MEM win probability +2.3 pts (now 88%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 13:25: Mose Frazier 42 Yd pass from Paxton Lynch (Jake Elliott Kick) — MEM win probability +3.3 pts (now 88%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 1:17: Marvin Kloss 35 Yd Field Goal — USF win probability +2.1 pts (now 15%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 7:37: Brandon Hayes 11 Yd pass from Paxton Lynch (Jake Elliott Kick) — MEM win probability +4.7 pts (now 94%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:14: Andre Davis 9 Yd pass from Steven Bench (Marvin Kloss Kick) — USF win probability +2.4 pts (now 3%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MEM made the numbers' call on 2 of 7USF made the numbers' call on 7 of 11
  1. Q1 13:01MEM 4th & 7 at USF 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 88.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.5%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.5%
    62% to make
    Punt
    88.2%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:32USF 4th & 3 at MEM 3, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 13.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.5%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.4%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    12.8%−0.7
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:41USF 4th & 6 at USF 29, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.6%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.7%
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:21USF 4th & 12 at USF 23, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.6%−0.5
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:14MEM 4th & 4 at USF 45, up 11
    Close callPunted · 88.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    87.4%−0.9
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    88.0%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:32USF 4th & 1 at MEM 38, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    11.2%−1.0
    38% to make
    Punt
    11.1%−1.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:17USF 4th & 4 at MEM 17, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 12.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.2%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    12.2%
    80% to make
    Punt
    9.9%−2.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:07MEM 4th & 1 at USF 34, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.1%−0.4
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.5%
    47% to make
    Punt
    86.4%−1.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:00USF 4th & 4 at midfield, down 8
    Close callPunted · 14.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.3%−0.7
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:14MEM 4th & 6 at USF 43, up 8
    Close callPunted · 86.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    85.9%−1.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    86.7%−0.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:05USF 4th & 8 at USF 3, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.6%−1.9
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.5%
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:22MEM 4th & 3 at USF 17, up 15
    Close callKicked a field goal · 95.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.1%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.8%−0.3
    80% to make
    Punt
    91.0%−4.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:04USF 4th & 4 at USF 31, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.4%−0.3
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.7%
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:34MEM 4th & 6 at USF 40, up 18
    Close callPunted · 97.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    97.3%−0.4
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    97.4%−0.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:19USF 4th & 20 at USF 49, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.9%−0.4
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.3%
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:06MEM 4th & 1 at MEM 20, up 18
    Close callPunted · 98.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.9%−0.5
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:32USF 4th & 15 at USF 43, down 18
    Close callWent for it · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.3%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.5%
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:14USF 4th & 4 at MEM 9, down 18
    Close callWent for it · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.7%−<0.1
    43% to convert
    Field goal
    1.7%
    89% to make
    Punt
    0.9%−0.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MEM made the numbers' call on 4 of 4USF made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 4:29MEM Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:00MEM Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:49USF Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 13:25MEM Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 7:37MEM Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 1:14USF Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.6%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MEMDrive 1MISSED FG
7 plays · 48 yds · 1:4988% → 88%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
88.2%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Keiwone Malone for a loss of 2 yards to the Memph 23Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+47
88.1%
Brandon Hayes run for 47 yds to the SFla 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-15
88.0%
Roderick Proctor run for a loss of 15 yards to the SFla 45Similar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 25
OPP 45
+18
87.8%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Keiwone Malone for 18 yds to the SFla 27Similar
Q1 13:07
3RD & 7
OPP 27
0
87.8%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Tevin JonesSimilar
Q1 13:01
4TH & 7
OPP 27
+45
87.7%
Jake Elliott 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 2FG
13 plays · 70 yds · 5:1312% → 15%
Q1 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
87.6%
Marlon Mack run for 1 yd to the SFla 28Similar
Q1 12:15
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+2
87.4%
Marlon Mack run for 2 yds to the SFla 30Similar
Q1 11:30
3RD & 7
OWN 30
+30
87.2%
Mike White pass complete to Andre Davis for 30 yds to the Memph 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:09
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
86.9%
Mike White pass incomplete to Kennard SwansonSimilar
Q1 11:00
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+3
86.8%
Marlon Mack run for 3 yds to the Memph 37Similar
Q1 10:23
3RD & 7
OPP 37
+18
86.6%
Mike White pass complete to Mike McFarland for 18 yds to the Memph 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:43
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
86.3%
Marlon Mack run for no gain to the Memph 19 Marlon Mack fumbled, recovered by SFla Marlon MackSimilar
Q1 9:03
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+14
86.1%
MEMPHIS Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (14 Yards) to the Memph 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
86.0%
Darius Tice run for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 6 Darius Tice fumbled, recovered by SFla Darius TiceSimilar
Q1 8:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
85.5%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 3 yds to the Memph 3Similar
Q1 7:37
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
85.6%
Mike White pass incomplete to Mike McFarlandSimilar
Q1 7:32
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+21
85.5%
Marvin Kloss 21 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 3TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:5286% → 87%
Q1 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
85.6%
Brandon Hayes run for 2 yds to the Memph 27Similar
Q1 7:01
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
85.5%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Phil MayhueSimilar
Q1 6:54
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+14
85.2%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Adrian Henderson for 14 yds to the Memph 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
85.7%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Roderick Proctor for 8 yds to the Memph 49Similar
Q1 6:10
2ND & 2
OWN 49
-2
85.6%
Brandon Hayes run for a loss of 2 yards to the Memph 47Similar
Q1 5:50
3RD & 4
OPP 47
+30
85.3%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Keiwone Malone for 15 yds to the MEMPHIS 38 for a 1ST down SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Roughing Passer (15 Yards) to the SFla 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-2
85.5%
Roderick Proctor run for a loss of 2 yards to the SFla 25Similar
Q1 4:48
2ND & 12
OPP 25
+24
85.3%
Paxton Lynch run for 24 yds to the SFla 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
86.6%
Paxton Lynch 1 Yd Run (Jake Elliott Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:2714% → 13%
Q1 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
86.1%
Quinton Flowers run for 4 yds to the SFla 29Similar
Q1 3:38
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
85.8%
Marlon Mack run for no gain to the SFla 29Similar
Q1 2:54
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
86.4%
Mike White pass incomplete to Andre DavisSimilar
Q1 2:41
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+24
86.6%
Mattias Ciabatti punt for 51 yds , Keiwone Malone returns for 24 yds to the Memph 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 5TD
8 plays · 56 yds · 2:3286% → 88%
Q1 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
85.9%
Brandon Hayes run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 2:03
2ND & 4
50
+18
85.9%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Alan Cross for 18 yds to the SFla 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:52
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
86.2%
Brandon Hayes run for 2 yds to the SFla 30Similar
Q1 1:22
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+5
86.1%
Brandon Hayes run for 5 yds to the SFla 25Similar
Q1 1:02
3RD & 3
OPP 25
+4
85.7%
Paxton Lynch run for 4 yds to the SFla 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:38
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
86.0%
Paxton Lynch run for 4 yds to the SFla 17Similar
Q1 0:15
2ND & 6
OPP 17
+12
85.9%
Brandon Hayes run for 12 yds to the SFla 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
88.2%
Paxton Lynch 5 Yd Run (Jake Elliott Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 6TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
85.7%
Marlon Mack 75 Yd Run (Marvin Kloss Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 7TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:0585% → 88%
Q2 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
84.7%
Jarvis Cooper run for 3 yds to the Memph 28Similar
Q2 14:10
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+24
84.7%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Adrian Henderson for 24 yds to the SFla 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:46
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
85.3%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Phil MayhueSimilar
Q2 13:42
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+6
85.2%
Brandon Hayes run for 6 yds to the SFla 42Similar
Q2 13:25
3RD & 4
OPP 42
+42
88.4%
Mose Frazier 42 Yd pass from Paxton Lynch (Jake Elliott Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 1:5412% → 11%
Q2 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
88.2%
Marlon Mack run for 3 yds to the SFla 28Similar
Q2 12:33
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
88.2%
Mike White pass complete to Mike McFarland for 6 yds to the SFla 34Similar
Q2 11:42
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-14
87.9%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Illegal Block (-14 Yards) to the SFla 20Similar
Q2 11:32
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+3
88.6%
Mike White run for 3 yds to the SFla 23Similar
Q2 11:21
4TH & 12
OWN 23
+2
88.7%
Mattias Ciabatti punt for 42 yds , Keiwone Malone returns for 2 yds to the Memph 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 1:5888% → 88%
Q2 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
88.4%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Alan Cross for 3 yds to the Memph 40Similar
Q2 10:48
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+9
88.7%
Jarvis Cooper run for 9 yds to the Memph 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
89.0%
Jarvis Cooper run for 5 yds to the SFla 46Similar
Q2 10:07
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+4
89.1%
Jarvis Cooper run for 4 yds to the SFla 42Similar
Q2 9:35
3RD & 1
OPP 42
-3
88.8%
Jarvis Cooper run for a loss of 3 yards to the SFla 45Similar
Q2 9:14
4TH & 4
OPP 45
0
88.4%
Nick Jacobs punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Chris Dunkley at the SFla 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 10FG
17 plays · 76 yds · 7:4911% → 15%
Q2 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+4
88.9%
Marlon Mack run for 4 yds to the SFla 11Similar
Q2 8:31
2ND & 6
OWN 11
+4
88.7%
Marlon Mack run for 4 yds to the SFla 15Similar
Q2 7:46
3RD & 2
OWN 15
+25
88.7%
Mike White pass complete to Kennard Swanson for 25 yds to the SFla 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
88.0%
Darius Tice run for 4 yds to the SFla 44Similar
Q2 6:37
2ND & 6
OWN 44
0
87.7%
Mike White pass incomplete to Mike McFarlandSimilar
Q2 6:25
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+9
88.1%
Mike White sacked by Ricky Hunter for a loss of 6 yards to the Memph 38 MEMPHIS Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle (Ricky Hunter) to the Memph 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+7
87.4%
Mike White pass complete to Darius Tice for 7 yds to the Memph 40Similar
Q2 5:15
2ND & 3
OPP 40
+2
87.2%
Darius Tice run for 2 yds to the Memph 38Similar
Q2 4:37
3RD & 1
OPP 38
0
88.0%
Mike White pass incomplete to Kennard SwansonSimilar
Q2 4:32
4TH & 1
OPP 38
+1
88.5%
Kennard Swanson run for 1 yd to the Memph 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:12
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
88.1%
Mike White pass incomplete to Andre DavisSimilar
Q2 3:45
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+4
88.1%
Marlon Mack run for 4 yds to the Memph 33Similar
Q2 2:57
3RD & 6
OPP 33
+10
88.1%
Mike White pass complete to Tye Turner for 10 yds Tye Turner fumbled, recovered by SFla Tye Turner for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:37
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
87.7%
Marlon Mack run for 3 yds to the Memph 20Similar
Q2 2:02
2ND & 7
OPP 20
0
87.7%
Mike White pass incomplete to Mike McFarlandSimilar
Q2 1:46
3RD & 7
OPP 20
+3
87.6%
Darius Tice run for 3 yds to the Memph 17Similar
Q2 1:17
4TH & 4
OPP 17
+35
85.5%
Marvin Kloss 35 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 11MISSED FG
10 plays · 31 yds · 0:5887% → 87%
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
86.8%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Roderick Proctor for 5 yds to the Memph 40Similar
Q2 0:54
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+4
87.6%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Brandon Hayes for 4 yds to the Memph 44Similar
Q2 0:40
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+13
87.2%
Brandon Hayes run for 13 yds to the SFla 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
87.8%
Brandon Hayes run for 5 yds to the SFla 38Similar
Q2 0:18
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+1
88.6%
Brandon Hayes run for 1 yd to the SFla 37Similar
Q2 0:14
3RD & 4
OPP 37
+3
87.5%
Brandon Hayes run for 3 yds to the SFla 34Similar
Q2 0:07
4TH & 1
OPP 34
+53
87.0%
Jake Elliott 53 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-1
86.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 13PUNT
10 plays · 31 yds · 2:4614% → 15%
Q3 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
85.7%
Mike White pass complete to Deonte Welch for 6 yds to the SFla 25Similar
Q3 14:22
2ND & 4
OWN 25
+8
85.3%
Mike White pass complete to Marlon Mack for 8 yds to the SFla 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-1
85.2%
Mike White run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 32Similar
Q3 13:20
2ND & 11
OWN 32
+9
85.5%
Mike White pass complete to Deonte Welch for 9 yds to the SFla 41Similar
Q3 12:48
3RD & 2
OWN 41
+3
84.3%
Marlon Mack run for 3 yds to the SFla 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
84.2%
Mike White pass complete to Marlon Mack for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 12:10
2ND & 4
50
0
83.5%
Mike White pass incomplete to Eric DungySimilar
Q3 12:07
3RD & 4
50
0
83.8%
Mike White pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:00
4TH & 4
50
0
85.0%
Mattias Ciabatti punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Keiwone Malone at the Memph 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 38 yds · 1:3486% → 86%
Q3 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+34
86.2%
Brandon Hayes run for 34 yds to the SFla 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:38
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
87.5%
Paxton Lynch pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:25
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+7
87.5%
Mose Frazier run for 7 yds to the SFla 40Similar
Q3 10:58
3RD & 3
OPP 40
+2
87.0%
Paxton Lynch run for 2 yds to the SFla 38Similar
Q3 10:33
4TH & 1
OPP 38
-5
86.3%
MEMPHIS Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the SFla 43Similar
Q3 10:14
4TH & 6
OPP 43
0
86.1%
Nick Jacobs punt for 42 yds, downed at the SFla 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:5815% → 13%
Q3 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
85.5%
Darius Tice run for 2 yds to the SFla 3Similar
Q3 9:23
2ND & 8
OWN 3
-1
85.7%
Darius Tice run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 2Similar
Q3 8:45
3RD & 9
OWN 2
+1
86.7%
Mike White pass complete to Marlon Mack for 1 yd to the SFla 3Similar
Q3 8:05
4TH & 8
OWN 3
+12
86.9%
Mattias Ciabatti punt for 36 yds , Keiwone Malone returns for 12 yds to the SFla 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 16TD
2 plays · 27 yds · 0:0889% → 94%
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+16
89.2%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Phil Mayhue for 16 yds to the SFla 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
93.9%
Brandon Hayes 11 Yd pass from Paxton Lynch (Jake Elliott Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 17FUMBLE
12 plays · 59 yds · 5:318% → 6%
Q3 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
92.1%
Mike White pass complete to Andre Davis for 6 yds to the SFla 31Similar
Q3 7:10
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
91.7%
Mike White pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:30
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+9
92.3%
Mike White pass complete to Mike McFarland for 9 yds to the SFla 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-3
91.9%
Deonte Welch run for a loss of 3 yards to the SFla 37Similar
Q3 5:50
2ND & 13
OWN 37
+24
92.8%
Mike White pass complete to Sean Price for 24 yds to the Memph 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:14
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
91.6%
Marlon Mack run for 4 yds to the Memph 35Similar
Q3 4:30
2ND & 6
OPP 35
0
91.1%
Quinton Flowers run for no gain to the Memph 35Similar
Q3 3:48
3RD & 6
OPP 35
+31
92.4%
Mike White pass complete to Mike McFarland for 31 yds to the Memph 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
91.5%
Darius Tice run for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 5Similar
Q3 2:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-4
92.9%
Mike White sacked by Ryan Coleman for a loss of 4 yards to the Memph 9Similar
Q3 2:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
-7
93.6%
Marlon Mack run for a loss of 7 yards to the Memph 16 Marlon Mack fumbled, recovered by MemphSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 18FG
9 plays · 67 yds · 2:2695% → 98%
Q3 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+15
95.4%
Brandon Hayes run for 15 yds to the Memph 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+31
95.6%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Mose Frazier for 31 yds to the SFla 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
95.9%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Mose Frazier for 9 yds to the SFla 29Similar
Q3 0:55
2ND & 1
OPP 29
+5
96.0%
Brandon Hayes run for 5 yds to the SFla 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:28
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+9
96.2%
Brandon Hayes run for 9 yds to the SFla 15Similar
Q3 0:10
2ND & 1
OPP 15
0
96.2%
Paxton Lynch run for no gain to the SFla 15Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 15
-5
96.1%
MEMPHIS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SFla 20Similar
Q4 14:45
3RD & 6
OPP 20
+3
96.2%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Brandon Hayes for 3 yds to the SFla 17Similar
Q4 14:22
4TH & 3
OPP 17
+35
97.5%
Jake Elliott 35 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:053% → 3%
Q4 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
96.6%
Marlon Mack run for 1 yd to the SFla 26Similar
Q4 13:49
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
96.6%
Mike White pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:26
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+5
96.7%
Mike White pass complete to Ryeshene Bronson for 5 yds to the SFla 31Similar
Q4 13:04
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
96.7%
Mattias Ciabatti punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Memph 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 24 yds · 2:1998% → 98%
Q4 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
97.9%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Tevin Jones for 4 yds to the Memph 40Similar
Q4 12:26
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+16
98.0%
Brandon Hayes run for 16 yds to the SFla 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:01
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
98.1%
Brandon Hayes run for 1 yd to the SFla 43Similar
Q4 11:45
2ND & 9
OPP 43
-6
98.1%
Paxton Lynch run for 4 yds to the SFla 39 MEMPHIS Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the SFla 49Similar
Q4 11:30
2ND & 15
OPP 49
0
98.0%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Roderick ProctorSimilar
Q4 10:48
3RD & 15
OPP 49
+9
98.0%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Roderick Proctor for 9 yds to the SFla 40Similar
Q4 10:34
4TH & 6
OPP 40
+14
97.9%
Nick Jacobs punt for 29 yds, downed at the SFla 11 MEMPHIS Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (-15 Yards) to the SFla 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 21PUNT
9 plays · 23 yds · 2:543% → 3%
Q4 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
97.3%
Mike White pass complete to Marlon Mack for 4 yds to the SFla 30Similar
Q4 9:45
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+8
97.1%
Mike White pass complete to Marlon Mack for 8 yds to the SFla 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
97.1%
Mike White pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:55
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+8
97.2%
Mike White pass complete to Deonte Welch for 8 yds to the SFla 46Similar
Q4 8:30
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+13
97.2%
Mike White pass complete to D'Ernest Johnson for 13 yds to the Memph 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-4
97.1%
Mike White sacked by Martin Ifedi for a loss of 4 yards to the Memph 45Similar
Q4 7:45
2ND & 14
OPP 45
-6
97.2%
Mike White run for a loss of 6 yards to the SFla 49Similar
Q4 7:35
3RD & 20
OWN 49
0
97.5%
Mike White pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:19
4TH & 20
OWN 49
+6
97.5%
Mattias Ciabatti punt for 46 yds , Keiwone Malone returns for 6 yds to the Memph 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:5498% → 98%
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+2
98.3%
Brandon Hayes run for 2 yds to the Memph 13Similar
Q4 6:30
2ND & 8
OWN 13
+5
98.5%
Brandon Hayes run for 5 yds to the Memph 18Similar
Q4 5:45
3RD & 3
OWN 18
+2
98.5%
Brandon Hayes run for 2 yds to the Memph 20Similar
Q4 5:06
4TH & 1
OWN 20
+6
98.4%
Spencer Smith punt for 48 yds , Chris Dunkley returns for 6 yds to the SFla 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 23TD
17 plays · 62 yds · 3:462% → 3%
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
98.2%
Mike White pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:51
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+10
98.2%
Mike White pass complete to Marlon Mack for 10 yds to the SFla 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
98.2%
Marlon Mack run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 3:51
2ND & 8
50
-7
98.2%
Quinton Flowers sacked by Genard Avery for a loss of 7 yards to the SFla 43Similar
Q4 3:46
3RD & 15
OWN 43
0
98.6%
Steven Bench pass incomplete to Andre DavisSimilar
Q4 3:32
4TH & 15
OWN 43
+17
98.7%
Steven Bench pass complete to Andre Davis for 17 yds to the Memph 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:03
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+7
98.3%
Steven Bench pass complete to Darius Tice for 7 yds to the Memph 33Similar
Q4 2:51
2ND & 3
OPP 33
0
98.1%
Steven Bench pass incomplete to Andre DavisSimilar
Q4 2:40
3RD & 3
OPP 33
+4
98.2%
Steven Bench pass complete to Darius Tice for 4 yds to the Memph 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:24
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
98.1%
Steven Bench pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:04
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+14
98.2%
Steven Bench pass complete to Marlon Mack for 14 yds to the Memph 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+6
98.0%
Steven Bench pass complete to Marlon Mack for 6 yds to the Memph 9Similar
Q4 1:27
2ND & 4
OPP 9
0
98.0%
Steven Bench pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:20
3RD & 4
OPP 9
0
98.2%
Steven Bench pass incomplete to Eric DungySimilar
Q4 1:14
4TH & 4
OPP 9
+9
96.8%
Andre Davis 9 Yd pass from Steven Bench (Marvin Kloss Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 24END OF GAME
3 plays · -3 yds · 0:4597% → 97%
Q4 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-2
97.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the SFla 49Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 12
OPP 49
-1
97.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:37
Brandon Hayes 11 Yd pass from Paxton Lynch (Jake Elliott Kick)
+4.7
TD · Q2 13:25
Mose Frazier 42 Yd pass from Paxton Lynch (Jake Elliott Kick)
+3.3
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+2.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com