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TLSA

Tulsa 28 at Houston 38

HOU
2014 · Week 13 · Nov 22, 2014 · TDECU Stadium
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Win probability · HOU
modelHOU aheadTLSA aheadconfidence bandkey playHOU scoreTLSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of GameTD-0.6HOU 92.0%Kenneth Farrow run for 1 yd for a TD,(Kyle Bullard KICK)AWAY 0 - HOME 7 · Q1 10:30
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 10:30 · Kenneth Farrow run for 1 yd for a TD, (Kyle Bullard KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+42.5+21.30−21.3−42.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 11Pregame prior+40.5Home team on offense+1.1Garbage-time factor+0.3Score differential+0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2Blowout margin−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 6:53: Zack Langer run for 2 yds for a TD, (Carl Salazar KICK) — TLSA win probability +15.5 pts (now 33%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 2:36: Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 17 yds for a TD, (Carl Salazar KICK) — TLSA win probability +18.1 pts (now 38%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 1:19: Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Markeith Ambles for 25 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bullard KICK) — HOU win probability +14.2 pts (now 90%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 7:10: Dane Evans pass complete to Zach Epps for 1 yd for a TD, (Carl Salazar KICK) — TLSA win probability +29.2 pts (now 47%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:06: Kenneth Farrow run for 2 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bullard KICK) — HOU win probability +27.0 pts (now 94%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
HOU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7TLSA made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 10:30HOU 4th & 1 at TLSA 1, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    89.8%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    89.6%−0.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    89.1%−0.7
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:30TLSA 4th & 1 at HOU 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    9.6%−0.1
    70% to make
    Punt
    9.2%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:40HOU 4th & 1 at TLSA 1, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.8%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    88.4%−0.5
    94% to make
    Punt
    87.1%−1.7
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:09TLSA 4th & 10 at HOU 27, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 9.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.0%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    9.3%
    62% to make
    Punt
    7.6%−1.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:09HOU 4th & 3 at TLSA 39, up 14
    Close callPunted · 91.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.4%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    90.8%−0.6
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    90.9%−0.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:53TLSA 4th & 14 at TLSA 36, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.4%−0.8
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:36HOU 4th & 4 at HOU 16, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.3%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:13HOU 4th & 2 at HOU 48, up 7
    Close callPunted · 86.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.0%−0.4
    average punt
  9. Q4 11:29HOU 4th & 12 at TLSA 12, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 88.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.6%−2.1
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.7%
    86% to make
    Punt
    78.9%−8.8
    average punt
  10. Q4 7:10TLSA 4th & 1 at HOU 1, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.9%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    12.8%−7.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    0.7%−19.2
    average punt
  11. Q4 3:06TLSA 4th & 8 at TLSA 13, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.2%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.6%−0.7
    average punt
  12. Q4 1:16HOU 4th & 16 at TLSA 18, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.0%−0.7
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.7%
    79% to make
    Punt
    92.7%−1.9
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:16TLSA 4th & 1 at HOU 39, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    4.5%−1.5
    36% to make
    Punt
    4.7%−1.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
HOU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5TLSA made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 10:30HOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:40HOU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:36TLSA Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 6:53TLSA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 5:28HOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 2:36TLSA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 1:19HOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 7:10TLSA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.7%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.8%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 3:06HOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.0%−1.8
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
HOUDrive 1TD
11 plays · 78 yds · 4:3093% → 92%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
92.5%
Kenneth Farrow run for 4 yds to the Houst 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+9
92.5%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 9 yds to the Houst 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
92.5%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Deontay Greenberry for no gain to the Houst 35Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+6
92.5%
Kenneth Farrow run for 6 yds to the Houst 41Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+40
92.5%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 40 yds to the Tulsa 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+12
92.5%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 12 yds to the Tulsa 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
92.5%
Ryan Jackson run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 4Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
92.5%
Kenneth Farrow run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 1Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
92.5%
Kenneth Farrow run for no gain to the Tulsa 1Similar
Q1 10:30
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
92.0%
Kenneth Farrow run for 1 yd for a TD, (Kyle Bullard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 2DOWNS
12 plays · 48 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
91.8%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 5 yds to the Tulsa 34Similar
Q1 10:30
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+6
91.8%
Zack Langer run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
91.8%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 39Similar
Q1 10:30
2ND & 11
OWN 39
+4
91.8%
Zack Langer run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 43Similar
Q1 10:30
3RD & 7
OWN 43
+8
91.8%
Dane Evans run for 8 yds to the Houst 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
91.7%
Zack Langer run for 4 yds to the Houst 45Similar
Q1 10:30
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+13
91.7%
Zack Langer run for 13 yds to the Houst 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+9
91.7%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 9 yds to the Houst 23Similar
Q1 10:30
2ND & 1
OPP 23
-1
91.6%
Zack Langer run for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 24Similar
Q1 10:30
3RD & 2
OPP 24
+1
91.7%
Zack Langer run for 1 yd to the Houst 23Similar
Q1 10:30
4TH & 1
OPP 23
0
91.8%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keyarris Garrett, broken up by William JacksonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 3TD
8 plays · 77 yds · 3:0991% → 92%
Q1 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+56
91.1%
Ryan Jackson run for 56 yds to the Tulsa 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:49
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-1
91.4%
Ryan Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 22Similar
Q1 4:49
2ND & 11
OPP 22
0
91.4%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Deontay GreenberrySimilar
Q1 4:49
3RD & 11
OPP 22
+12
91.2%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 12 yds to the Tulsa 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
91.4%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 7Similar
Q1 4:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
91.4%
Ryan Jackson run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 1Similar
Q1 4:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
91.3%
Ryan Jackson run for no gain to the Tulsa 1Similar
Q1 1:40
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
92.4%
Kenneth Farrow run for 1 yd for a TD, (Kyle Bullard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 4MISSED FG
10 plays · 41 yds · 3:318% → 8%
Q1 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
91.9%
Dane Evans run for 8 yds to the Tulsa 40Similar
Q1 1:40
2ND & 2
OWN 40
+6
91.7%
Zack Langer run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
91.8%
Dane Evans pass complete to Bishop Louie for 6 yds to the Houst 48Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+21
91.5%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 21 yds to the Houst 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
91.3%
Zack Langer run for 5 yds to the Houst 22Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 22
-5
91.3%
TULSA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Houst 27Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 27
0
91.4%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keevan Lucas, broken up by William JacksonSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 27
0
91.6%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Bishop LouieSimilar
Q2 13:09
4TH & 10
OPP 27
+44
91.8%
Carl Salazar 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 34 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q2 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+16
92.4%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Deontay Greenberry for 16 yds to the Houst 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
92.7%
Kenneth Farrow run for 3 yds to the Houst 46Similar
Q2 13:09
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+8
92.7%
Kenneth Farrow run for 8 yds to the Tulsa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:09
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-7
92.7%
Greg Ward Jr. sacked by Derrick Alexander and Chris Hummingbird for a loss of 7 yards to the Houst 47Similar
Q2 13:09
2ND & 17
OWN 47
+7
92.5%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Wayne Beadle for 7 yds to the Tulsa 46Similar
Q2 13:09
3RD & 10
OPP 46
+7
92.5%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Wayne Beadle for 7 yds to the Tulsa 39Similar
Q2 13:09
4TH & 3
OPP 39
0
92.3%
Logan Piper punt for 39 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q2 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
91.7%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 9 yds to the Tulsa 29Similar
Q2 9:53
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+1
91.5%
Zack Langer run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+10
91.6%
Dane Evans pass complete to Bishop Louie for 10 yds to the Tulsa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
91.5%
Zack Langer run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 41Similar
Q2 9:53
2ND & 9
OWN 41
-5
91.5%
Dane Evans sacked by Jeremiah Farley and Tomme Mark for a loss of 5 yards to the Tulsa 36Similar
Q2 9:53
3RD & 14
OWN 36
0
91.9%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keyarris GarrettSimilar
Q2 9:53
4TH & 14
OWN 36
-2
91.9%
Dalton Parks punt for 43 yds , Demarcus Ayers returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Houst 34 HOUSTON Penalty, illegal block (9 Yards) to the Houst 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0092% → 91%
Q2 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+1
91.9%
Ryan Jackson run for 1 yd to the Houst 11Similar
Q2 6:36
2ND & 9
OWN 11
+5
91.9%
Ryan Jackson run for 5 yds to the Houst 16Similar
Q2 6:36
3RD & 4
OWN 16
0
91.7%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:36
4TH & 4
OWN 16
+21
91.4%
Logan Piper punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Houst 41 , Conner Floyd returns for 21 yds to the Houst 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 8TD
3 plays · 41 yds · 0:419% → 14%
Q2 5:17
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
91.1%
HOUSTON Penalty, Defensive offside (Joey Mbu) to the Houst 36Similar
Q2 5:17
1ST & 5
OPP 36
+33
90.9%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 33 yds to the Houst 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
86.1%
Dane Evans run for 3 yds for a TD, (Carl Salazar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 9PUNT
11 plays · 33 yds · 3:2388% → 87%
Q2 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+8
88.4%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Wayne Beadle for 8 yds to the Houst 23Similar
Q2 4:36
2ND & 2
OWN 23
-3
88.6%
Kenneth Farrow run for a loss of 3 yards to the Houst 20Similar
Q2 4:36
3RD & 5
OWN 20
+10
88.0%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 10 yds to the Houst 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
88.6%
Kenneth Farrow run for 1 yd to the Houst 31Similar
Q2 4:36
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+9
88.5%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 9 yds to the Houst 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
89.2%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Deontay Greenberry for a loss of 5 yards to the Houst 35Similar
Q2 4:36
2ND & 15
OWN 35
0
88.4%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Deontay GreenberrySimilar
Q2 4:36
3RD & 15
OWN 35
+13
88.0%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 13 yds to the Houst 48Similar
Q2 1:13
4TH & 2
OWN 48
0
87.3%
Logan Piper punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Conner Floyd at the Tulsa 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 10END OF HALF
4 plays · 18 yds · 0:4913% → 13%
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
86.9%
Zack Langer run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 21Similar
Q2 1:06
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+12
87.0%
Zack Langer run for 12 yds to the Tulsa 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
87.0%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 4 yds to the Tulsa 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 11TD
18 plays · 75 yds · 8:0713% → 33%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
86.9%
Zack Langer run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-5
86.4%
TULSA Penalty, false start (Blake Belcher) to the Tulsa 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+17
87.0%
Dane Evans pass complete to Joshua Atkinson for 17 yds to the Tulsa 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
86.2%
Zack Langer run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 46Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+8
85.7%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 8 yds to the Houst 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
85.4%
Zack Langer run for 4 yds to the Houst 42Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+6
85.4%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 6 yds to the Houst 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
85.4%
Zack Langer run for 6 yds to the Houst 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 30
+2
84.4%
Dane Evans pass complete to Bishop Louie for 2 yds to the Houst 28Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 28
+3
85.3%
Zack Langer run for 3 yds to the Houst 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-1
81.8%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 26Similar
Q3 9:56
2ND & 11
OPP 26
+6
82.3%
Zack Langer run for 6 yds to the Houst 20Similar
Q3 9:56
3RD & 5
OPP 20
+6
83.0%
Zack Langer run for 6 yds to the Houst 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-1
81.8%
Zack Langer run for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 15Similar
Q3 9:56
2ND & 11
OPP 15
+13
82.3%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 13 yds to the Houst 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
66.8%
Zack Langer run for 2 yds for a TD, (Carl Salazar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 12TD
5 plays · 82 yds · 1:2575% → 89%
Q3 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+8
75.0%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Ryan Jackson for 8 yds to the Houst 26Similar
Q3 6:53
2ND & 2
OWN 26
+5
76.1%
Ryan Jackson run for 5 yds to the Houst 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+24
75.5%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 24 yds to the Tulsa 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:28
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+45
88.5%
Kenneth Farrow run for 45 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bullard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 13TD
9 plays · 70 yds · 2:5216% → 38%
Q3 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
83.6%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Bishop LouieSimilar
Q3 5:28
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
84.2%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keevan Lucas, broken up by Howard WilsonSimilar
Q3 5:28
3RD & 10
OWN 30
+16
84.9%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 16 yds to the Tulsa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
82.0%
Dane Evans pass complete to Conner Floyd for 5 yds to the Houst 49Similar
Q3 5:28
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+16
81.6%
Dane Evans run for 16 yds to the Houst 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:28
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+9
80.2%
Zack Langer run for 9 yds to the Houst 24Similar
Q3 5:28
2ND & 1
OPP 24
+7
79.7%
Zack Langer run for 7 yds to the Houst 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:36
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
61.7%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 17 yds for a TD, (Carl Salazar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 14TD
5 plays · 58 yds · 1:1774% → 90%
Q3 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
74.4%
Kenneth Farrow run for 4 yds to the Houst 46Similar
Q3 2:36
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+16
74.9%
Kenneth Farrow run for 16 yds to the Tulsa 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:36
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+13
75.7%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 13 yds to the Tulsa 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:19
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
89.9%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Markeith Ambles for 25 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bullard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 15INT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:1916% → 15%
Q3 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
84.3%
Zack Langer run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 26Similar
Q3 1:19
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+2
84.4%
Dane Evans pass complete to Bishop Louie for 2 yds to the Tulsa 28Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
85.0%
Dane Evans pass intercepted Howard Wilson return for no gain to the Tulsa 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 16MISSED FG
8 plays · 22 yds · 3:2590% → 88%
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+13
90.4%
Ryan Jackson run for 13 yds to the Tulsa 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
90.3%
Ryan Jackson run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 18Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 7
OPP 18
+4
90.3%
Ryan Jackson run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 14Similar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 3
OPP 14
+8
89.6%
Kenneth Farrow run for 8 yds to the Tulsa 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
90.3%
Ryan Jackson run for no gain to the Tulsa 6Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
90.3%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Markeith AmblesSimilar
Q4 14:54
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
-6
89.7%
Greg Ward Jr. sacked by Derrick Luetjen for a loss of 6 yards to the Tulsa 12Similar
Q4 11:29
4TH & GOAL
OPP 12
+30
88.0%
Kyle Bullard 30 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Michael Mudoh return for 2 yds to the Tulsa 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 17TD
10 plays · 77 yds · 4:1915% → 47%
Q4 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
85.5%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 2 yds to the Tulsa 25Similar
Q4 11:29
2ND & 8
OWN 25
0
85.6%
Zack Langer run for no gain to the Tulsa 25Similar
Q4 11:29
3RD & 8
OWN 25
+30
86.4%
Dane Evans pass complete to Bishop Louie for 30 yds to the HOUSTON 45 for a 1ST down HOUSTON Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:29
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
82.2%
Zack Langer run for 3 yds to the Houst 42Similar
Q4 11:29
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+12
82.3%
Zack Langer run for 12 yds to the Houst 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:29
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+22
80.7%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 14 yds to the Houst 16 for a 1ST down HOUSTON Penalty, roughing passer (Gavin Stansbury) to the Houst 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
80.1%
Dane Evans run for 4 yds to the Houst 4Similar
Q4 11:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
80.1%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 3 yds to the Houst 1Similar
Q4 11:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
81.8%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keevan LucasSimilar
Q4 7:10
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
52.6%
Dane Evans pass complete to Zach Epps for 1 yd for a TD, (Carl Salazar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 18TD
11 plays · 89 yds · 4:0462% → 94%
Q4 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+9
61.9%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Markeith Ambles for 9 yds to the Houst 20Similar
Q4 7:10
2ND & 1
OWN 20
+7
62.8%
Kenneth Farrow run for 7 yds to the Houst 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
62.7%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Deontay Greenberry for no gain to the Houst 27Similar
Q4 7:10
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+11
61.8%
Kenneth Farrow run for 11 yds to the Houst 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
65.0%
Kenneth Farrow run for no gain to the Houst 38Similar
Q4 7:10
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+16
64.3%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 16 yds to the Tulsa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
68.3%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Ryan JacksonSimilar
Q4 7:10
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+6
67.8%
Kenneth Farrow run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 40Similar
Q4 7:10
3RD & 4
OPP 40
+38
67.4%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 38 yds to the Tulsa 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
94.4%
Kenneth Farrow run for 2 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bullard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 19INT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0012% → 11%
Q4 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+2
88.0%
Dane Evans pass complete to Zack Langer for 2 yds to the Tulsa 13Similar
Q4 3:06
2ND & 8
OWN 13
0
88.2%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for no gain to the Tulsa 13Similar
Q4 3:06
3RD & 8
OWN 13
0
89.0%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Bishop Louie, broken up by Trevon StewartSimilar
Q4 3:06
4TH & 8
OWN 13
+26
89.4%
Dane Evans pass intercepted Adrian McDonald return for 26 yds to the Tulsa 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 20FG
7 plays · -6 yds · 0:2695% → 97%
Q4 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
95.1%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 11Similar
Q4 1:34
2ND & 9
OPP 11
-7
95.7%
Kenneth Farrow run for a loss of 7 yards to the Tulsa 18Similar
Q4 1:28
3RD & 16
OPP 18
0
96.3%
Kenneth Farrow run for no gain to the Tulsa 18Similar
Q4 1:16
4TH & 16
OPP 18
+35
96.5%
Kyle Bullard 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 21INT
8 plays · 28 yds · 0:003% → 4%
Q4 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+17
96.7%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 17 yds to the Houst 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:16
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+8
96.2%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 8 yds to the Houst 40Similar
Q4 1:16
2ND & 2
OPP 40
0
95.5%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keyarris GarrettSimilar
Q4 1:16
3RD & 2
OPP 40
+1
95.8%
Zack Langer run for 1 yd to the Houst 39Similar
Q4 1:16
4TH & 1
OPP 39
+2
96.4%
Zack Langer run for 2 yds to the Houst 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:16
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
95.8%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:16
2ND & 10
OPP 37
0
95.8%
Dane Evans pass intercepted Trevon Stewart return for no gain to the Houst 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 7:10
Dane Evans pass complete to Zach Epps for 1 yd for a TD, (Carl Salazar KICK)
-29.2
TD · Q4 3:06
Kenneth Farrow run for 2 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bullard KICK)
+27
TD · Q3 2:36
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 17 yds for a TD, (Carl Salazar KICK)
-18.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com