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SMU

SMU 7 at UCF 53

UCF
2014 · Week 13 · Nov 22, 2014 · FBC Mortgage Stadium
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Win probability · UCF
modelUCF aheadSMU aheadconfidence bandkey playUCF scoreSMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 15:00 · Jackson Koonce punt for 44 yds, downed at the UCF 15
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+46.0+23.00−23.0−46.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 104Pregame prior+29.7Home team on offense+25.6Score differential+23.0Blowout margin+10.8Garbage-time factor+5.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 10:10: Dontravious Wilson 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) — SMU win probability +0.6 pts (now 5%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 2:08: Justin Holman pass complete to J.J. Worton for 58 yds for a TD, (Rodrigo Quirarte KICK) — UCF win probability +1.6 pts (now 97%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q1 1:09: Justin Holman pass complete to Breshad Perriman for 18 yds for a TD, (Rodrigo Quirarte KICK) — UCF win probability +1.0 pts (now 98%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 14:24: Matt Davis run for 5 yds for a TD, (Cody Rademacher KICK) — SMU win probability +1.3 pts (now 4%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 14:09: Cody Rademacher kickoff for 61 yds , Michael Easton return for 96 yds for a TD, (Rodrigo Quirarte KICK) — UCF win probability +1.6 pts (now 98%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UCF made the numbers' call on 6 of 8SMU made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 7:05SMU 4th & 9 at SMU 4, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.5%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:30UCF 4th & 1 at SMU 21, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    94.2%−0.2
    74% to make
    Punt
    93.5%−1.0
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:51SMU 4th & 8 at SMU 24, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.9%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.1%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:09SMU 4th & 7 at SMU 18, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.0%−0.2
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:57SMU 4th & 14 at SMU 49, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.6%−0.3
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:03UCF 4th & 13 at UCF 22, up 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.8%−0.4
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:59SMU 4th & 12 at SMU 1, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%−0.7
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:12UCF 4th & 9 at SMU 14, up 27
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.9%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.3%
    84% to make
    Punt
    98.4%−1.0
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00SMU 4th & 13 at SMU 41, down 30
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−0.2
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:15UCF 4th & 6 at SMU 17, up 30
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−<0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.7%
    80% to make
    Punt
    99.3%−0.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:28UCF 4th & 3 at SMU 21, up 33
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.7%−<0.1
    74% to make
    Punt
    99.3%−0.5
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:28SMU 4th & 5 at SMU 16, down 36
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  13. Q4 15:00UCF 4th & 5 at UCF 42, up 36
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:28UCF 4th & 3 at SMU 3, up 36
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.8%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:28SMU 4th & 4 at SMU 12, down 39
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:48UCF 4th & 1 at SMU 15, up 39
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    99.7%−0.1
    83% to make
    Punt
    99.3%−0.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UCF made the numbers' call on 5 of 6SMU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 10:10UCF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    94.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    94.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:05UCF Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:08UCF Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 1:09UCF Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 14:24SMU Touchdown, down 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 14:09UCF Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 3:18UCF Touchdown, up 45 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UCFDrive 1TD
12 plays · 78 yds · 4:5096% → 95%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
95.7%
Justin Holman pass complete to Rannell Hall for 9 yds to the UCF 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 31
+7
95.7%
Dontravious Wilson run for 7 yds to the UCF 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+16
95.7%
Justin Holman pass complete to Rannell Hall for 16 yds to the SMU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
95.7%
Dontravious Wilson run for 4 yds to the SMU 42Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+2
95.7%
Dontravious Wilson run for 2 yds to the SMU 40Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 40
+12
95.7%
Justin Holman pass complete to Dontravious Wilson for 12 yds to the SMU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
95.7%
Justin Holman run for 4 yds to the SMU 24Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+4
95.7%
Dontravious Wilson run for 4 yds to the SMU 20Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 20
+6
95.7%
Dontravious Wilson run for 6 yds to the SMU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+13
95.7%
Justin Holman pass complete to Josh Reese for 13 yds to the SMU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
95.1%
Dontravious Wilson 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 2INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q1 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-4
94.9%
Matt Davis pass intercepted Jacoby Glenn return for a loss of 4 yards to the UCF 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 3TD
7 plays · 70 yds · 2:4995% → 96%
Q1 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
95.0%
Dontravious Wilson run for 11 yds to the UCF 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+25
95.0%
Justin Holman pass complete to Breshad Perriman for 25 yds to the SMU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:54
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+9
95.1%
Dontravious Wilson run for 9 yds to the SMU 25Similar
Q1 9:54
2ND & 1
OPP 25
+3
95.1%
Dontravious Wilson run for 3 yds to the SMU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:54
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+6
95.1%
Justin Holman pass complete to J.J. Worton for 6 yds to the SMU 16Similar
Q1 9:54
2ND & 4
OPP 16
+5
95.1%
Dontravious Wilson run for 5 yds to the SMU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
95.5%
Dontravious Wilson run for 11 yds for a TD, (Rodrigo Quirarte KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q1 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 3
-1
95.1%
Matt Davis sacked by Terrance Plummer for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 2Similar
Q1 7:05
2ND & 11
OWN 2
+2
95.1%
Prescott Line run for 2 yds to the SMU 4Similar
Q1 7:05
3RD & 9
OWN 4
0
95.1%
Matt Davis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:05
4TH & 9
OWN 4
0
95.2%
Jackson Koonce punt for 38 yds, downed at the SMU 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 5DOWNS
5 plays · 21 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+12
95.4%
Dontravious Wilson run for 12 yds to the SMU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
95.4%
Dontravious Wilson run for 5 yds to the SMU 25Similar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 5
OPP 25
0
95.4%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Breshad PerrimanSimilar
Q1 5:30
3RD & 5
OPP 25
+4
95.4%
Justin Holman pass complete to Dontravious Wilson for 4 yds to the SMU 21Similar
Q1 5:30
4TH & 1
OPP 21
0
95.3%
Cedric Thompson run for no gain to the SMU 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q1 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
94.8%
Prescott Line run for 4 yds to the SMU 26Similar
Q1 3:51
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+3
94.7%
Prescott Line run for 3 yds to the SMU 29Similar
Q1 3:51
3RD & 3
OWN 29
-5
94.7%
SMU Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SMU 24Similar
Q1 3:51
3RD & 8
OWN 24
0
94.8%
Matt Davis pass incomplete SMU Penalty, illegal block ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 3:51
4TH & 8
OWN 24
0
94.8%
Jackson Koonce punt for 34 yds, fair catch by J.J. Worton at the UCF 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 7TD
1 play · 58 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q1 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+58
96.5%
Justin Holman pass complete to J.J. Worton for 58 yds for a TD, (Rodrigo Quirarte KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 8FUMBLE
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q1 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-5
96.4%
K.C. Nlemchi run for a loss of 5 yards to the SMU 20 K.C. Nlemchi fumbled, recovered by UCF Miles PaceSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 9TD
3 plays · 20 yds · 0:5197% → 98%
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
96.5%
Rannell Hall run for 2 yds to the SMU 18Similar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 8
OPP 18
0
96.5%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Josh ReeseSimilar
Q1 1:09
3RD & 8
OPP 18
+18
97.5%
Justin Holman pass complete to Breshad Perriman for 18 yds for a TD, (Rodrigo Quirarte KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 10TD
5 plays · 30 yds · 1:452% → 4%
Q1 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+17
97.6%
Matt Davis run for 17 yds to the UCF 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
97.6%
Matt Davis run for 5 yds to the UCF 8Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 8
+3
97.8%
Matt Davis run for 3 yds to the UCF 5Similar
Q2 14:24
3RD & 2
OPP 5
+5
96.5%
Matt Davis run for 5 yds for a TD, (Cody Rademacher KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q2 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
98.2%
Matt Davis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:09
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+3
98.1%
Matt Davis pass complete to Deion Sanders Jr. for 3 yds to the SMU 18Similar
Q2 14:09
3RD & 7
OWN 18
0
98.1%
Matt Davis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:09
4TH & 7
OWN 18
+13
98.2%
Jackson Koonce punt for 45 yds , Jackie Williams returns for 13 yds to the UCF 31 UCF Penalty, BLK (Errol Clarke) to the UCF 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 13INT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q2 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
98.1%
Micah Reed run for 2 yds to the UCF 42Similar
Q2 13:24
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+9
98.0%
Justin Holman pass complete to Micah Reed for 9 yds to the SMU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
98.1%
Micah Reed run for 2 yds to the SMU 47Similar
Q2 13:24
2ND & 8
OPP 47
-14
98.1%
UCF Penalty, personal foul (-14 Yards) to the UCF 39Similar
Q2 13:24
2ND & 22
OWN 39
0
98.0%
Justin Holman pass intercepted Horace Richardson return for no gain to the UCF 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q2 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-10
98.3%
DAVIS,Matt rush for 2 yards to the UCF45 (NILES, Thomas), PENALTY SMU holding (McCARTY,D) 10 yards to the SMU43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:57
1ST & 20
OWN 43
0
98.5%
DAVIS,Matt pass complete to THOMPSON,D for 7 yards to the 50 yardline, out-of-bounds, PENALTY SMU illegal touching (THOMPSON,D) 0 yards to the SMU43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:57
2ND & 20
OWN 43
0
98.5%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Prescott Line, broken up by Terrance PlummerSimilar
Q2 11:57
3RD & 20
OWN 43
+6
98.5%
Matt Davis pass complete to Darius Joseph for 6 yds to the SMU 49Similar
Q2 11:57
4TH & 14
OWN 49
0
98.5%
Jackson Koonce punt for 40 yds, downed at the UCF 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 11 yds · 1:0698% → 98%
Q2 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+4
98.4%
Micah Reed run for 4 yds to the UCF 15Similar
Q2 11:09
2ND & 6
OWN 15
+10
98.4%
Micah Reed run for 10 yds to the UCF 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-12
98.4%
HOLMAN, Justin pass incomplete to PERRIMAN, B., PENALTY UCF pass interference (PERRIMAN, B.) 12 yards to the UCF13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:03
1ST & 22
OWN 13
+10
98.1%
Micah Reed run for 10 yds to the UCF 23Similar
Q2 10:03
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+5
98.2%
Justin Holman run for 5 yds to the UCF 28Similar
Q2 10:03
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-7
98.1%
Justin Holman sacked by John Bordano for a loss of 7 yards to the UCF 22 Justin Holman fumbled, , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 10:03
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
98.1%
Caleb Houston punt for 47 yds , Daijuan Stewart returns for no gain to the SMU 38 Daijuan Stewart fumbled, recovered by UCF Domenic SpencerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 16INT
6 plays · 22 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q2 7:57
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+7
98.6%
Micah Reed run for 7 yds to the SMU 31Similar
Q2 7:57
2ND & 3
OPP 31
+4
98.5%
Micah Reed run for 4 yds to the SMU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:57
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
98.6%
Micah Reed run for 5 yds to the SMU 22Similar
Q2 7:57
2ND & 5
OPP 22
+6
98.6%
Micah Reed run for 6 yds to the SMU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:57
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
98.5%
Micah Reed run for no gain to the SMU 16Similar
Q2 7:57
2ND & 10
OPP 16
0
98.5%
Justin Holman pass intercepted Darrion Richardson return for no gain to the SMU 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 3
-1
99.0%
Prescott Line run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 2Similar
Q2 4:59
2ND & 11
OWN 2
0
99.0%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Andrew McCleneghen, broken up by Clayton GeathersSimilar
Q2 4:59
3RD & 11
OWN 2
0
99.0%
Prescott Line run for no gain to the SMU 2Similar
Q2 4:59
4TH & 11
OWN 2
-1
99.0%
SMU Penalty, false start (Chris Hipps) to the SMU 1Similar
Q2 4:59
4TH & 12
OWN 1
+14
99.0%
Jackson Koonce punt for 46 yds , Jackie Williams returns for 14 yds to the SMU 15 UCF Penalty, illegal block (Cedric Thompson) to the SMU 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 18FG
10 plays · 29 yds · 3:1199% → 99%
Q2 3:23
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+14
99.0%
Justin Holman pass complete to Rannell Hall for 14 yds to the SMU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:23
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
99.0%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Breshad PerrimanSimilar
Q2 3:23
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+8
99.0%
Justin Holman pass complete to Cedric Thompson for 8 yds to the SMU 21Similar
Q2 3:23
3RD & 2
OPP 21
+6
99.0%
Cedric Thompson run for 6 yds to the SMU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:23
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+8
99.0%
Cedric Thompson run for 8 yds to the SMU 7Similar
Q2 3:23
2ND & 2
OPP 7
-2
99.0%
Cedric Thompson run for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 9Similar
Q2 1:01
3RD & 4
OPP 9
-5
99.1%
Justin Holman sacked by Jonathan Yenga for a loss of 5 yards to the SMU 14Similar
Q2 0:12
4TH & 9
OPP 14
+31
99.3%
Rodrigo Quirarte 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 19END OF HALF
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
99.2%
Luke Seeker run for 3 yds to the SMU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 20PUNT
10 plays · 18 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-10
99.3%
LINE,Prescott rush for 2 yards to the SMU25 (ALEXANDER, B.), PENALTY SMU holding (MYERS,S) 10 yards to the SMU13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 20
OWN 13
+15
99.3%
Matt Davis pass complete to Deion Sanders Jr. for 15 yds to the SMU 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 28
0
99.3%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Deion Sanders Jr.Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 28
+16
99.3%
Matt Davis pass complete to Deion Sanders Jr. for 16 yds to the SMU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
99.3%
Matt Davis run for 2 yds to the SMU 46Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 46
0
99.3%
Matt Davis pass complete to Darius Joseph for no gain to the SMU 46Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 46
-5
99.3%
SMU Penalty, false start (Chauncey Briggs) to the SMU 41Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 41
0
99.3%
Matt Davis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 13
OWN 41
0
99.3%
Jackson Koonce punt for 44 yds, downed at the UCF 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 21FG
14 plays · 68 yds · 6:19100% → 100%
Q3 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
99.6%
Micah Reed run for 4 yds to the UCF 19Similar
Q3 11:34
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+3
99.6%
Micah Reed run for 3 yds to the UCF 22Similar
Q3 11:34
3RD & 3
OWN 22
+14
99.6%
Justin Holman run for 14 yds to the UCF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
99.6%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Rannell Hall, broken up by John BordanoSimilar
Q3 11:34
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+4
99.6%
Justin Holman pass complete to Micah Reed for 4 yds to the UCF 40Similar
Q3 11:34
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+26
99.6%
Justin Holman pass complete to Micah Reed for 26 yds to the SMU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
99.6%
Micah Reed run for 1 yd to the SMU 33Similar
Q3 11:34
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+5
99.6%
SMU Penalty, Defensive offside (Zach Wood) to the SMU 28Similar
Q3 11:34
2ND & 4
OPP 28
+2
99.6%
Dontravious Wilson run for 2 yds to the SMU 26Similar
Q3 11:34
3RD & 2
OPP 26
+5
99.6%
Justin Holman run for 5 yds to the SMU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+6
99.6%
Justin Holman pass complete to Dontravious Wilson for 6 yds to the SMU 15Similar
Q3 11:34
2ND & 4
OPP 15
-2
99.6%
Dontravious Wilson run for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 17Similar
Q3 11:34
3RD & 6
OPP 17
0
99.6%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Josh Reese, broken up by Jonathan YengaSimilar
Q3 5:15
4TH & 6
OPP 17
+34
99.8%
Shawn Moffitt 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 22FUMBLE
3 plays · 13 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.8%
Matt Davis pass complete to Deion Sanders Jr. for 4 yds to the SMU 29Similar
Q3 5:15
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
99.8%
Matt Davis run for 4 yds to the SMU 38 Matt Davis fumbled, forced by Rob Sauvao, recovered by UCF Brandon AlexanderSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 23FG
5 plays · 17 yds · 2:10100% → 100%
Q3 4:38
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+10
99.8%
Micah Reed run for 10 yds to the SMU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:38
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
99.8%
Micah Reed run for 6 yds to the SMU 22Similar
Q3 4:38
2ND & 4
OPP 22
+2
99.8%
Micah Reed run for 2 yds to the SMU 20Similar
Q3 4:38
3RD & 2
OPP 20
-1
99.8%
Micah Reed run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 21Similar
Q3 2:28
4TH & 3
OPP 21
+38
99.8%
Shawn Moffitt 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+5
99.8%
Garrett Krstich pass complete to Stephen Nelson for 5 yds to the SMU 16Similar
Q3 2:28
2ND & 5
OWN 16
0
99.9%
Garrett Krstich pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:28
3RD & 5
OWN 16
0
99.9%
Garrett Krstich pass incomplete to Daijuan Stewart, broken up by Jamiyus PittmanSimilar
Q3 2:28
4TH & 5
OWN 16
-2
99.9%
Jackson Koonce punt for 45 yds , Jackie Williams returns for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:24100% → 100%
Q3 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
99.8%
Cedric Thompson run for 2 yds to the UCF 39Similar
Q3 1:24
2ND & 8
OWN 39
-2
99.8%
Cedric Thompson run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 37Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+5
99.8%
Nick Patti run for 5 yds to the UCF 42Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 42
+11
99.8%
Caleb Houston punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SMU 26 , Daijuan Stewart returns for 11 yds to the SMU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 26INT
2 plays · -4 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-4
99.9%
Garrett Krstich pass complete to Stephen Nelson for a loss of 4 yards to the SMU 22Similar
Q4 14:14
2ND & 14
OWN 22
+35
99.9%
Garrett Krstich pass intercepted Shaquill Griffin return for 20 yds to the SMU 42 UCF Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the SMU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 27FG
8 plays · 23 yds · 1:59100% → 100%
Q4 13:27
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
99.9%
Nick Patti pass incomplete to Josh ReeseSimilar
Q4 13:27
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+19
99.9%
Nick Patti pass complete to Taylor Oldham for 19 yds to the SMU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
99.9%
Cedric Thompson run for 3 yds to the SMU 4Similar
Q4 13:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
99.9%
Cedric Thompson run for 1 yd to the SMU 3Similar
Q4 11:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
99.9%
Nick Patti pass incomplete to Taylor OldhamSimilar
Q4 11:28
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
99.9%
Shawn Moffitt 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 28PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+1
99.9%
Luke Seeker run for 1 yd to the SMU 7Similar
Q4 11:28
2ND & 9
OWN 7
+5
99.9%
Garrett Krstich pass complete to Shelby Walker for 5 yds to the SMU 12Similar
Q4 11:28
3RD & 4
OWN 12
0
99.9%
Garrett Krstich pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:28
4TH & 4
OWN 12
+10
99.9%
Jackson Koonce punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SMU 48 , Jackie Williams returns for 10 yds to the SMU 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 29TD
12 plays · 48 yds · 6:30100% → 100%
Q4 9:48
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
99.9%
Micah Reed run for 5 yds to the SMU 43Similar
Q4 9:48
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+3
99.9%
Nick Patti run for 3 yds to the SMU 40Similar
Q4 9:48
3RD & 2
OPP 40
+2
99.9%
Micah Reed run for 2 yds to the SMU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:48
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
99.9%
Micah Reed run for 4 yds to the SMU 34Similar
Q4 9:48
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+3
99.9%
Micah Reed run for 3 yds to the SMU 31Similar
Q4 9:48
3RD & 3
OPP 31
+7
99.9%
Nick Patti pass complete to Kevin Miller for 7 yds to the SMU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:48
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+6
99.9%
Micah Reed run for 6 yds to the SMU 18Similar
Q4 9:48
2ND & 4
OPP 18
+2
99.9%
Micah Reed run for 2 yds to the SMU 16Similar
Q4 9:48
3RD & 2
OPP 16
+1
99.9%
Micah Reed run for 1 yd to the SMU 15Similar
Q4 9:48
4TH & 1
OPP 15
+12
99.9%
Micah Reed run for 12 yds to the SMU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
99.9%
Micah Reed run for 2 yds to the SMU 1Similar
Q4 3:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
100.0%
Nick Patti run for 1 yd for a TD, (Shawn Moffitt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 30END OF GAME
7 plays · 21 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
100.0%
Garrett Krstich run for no gain to the SMU 37Similar
Q4 3:18
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+5
100.0%
UCF Penalty, Defensive offside (Lance McDowdell) to the SMU 42Similar
Q4 3:18
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+4
100.0%
K.C. Nlemchi run for 4 yds to the SMU 46Similar
Q4 3:18
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+8
100.0%
K.C. Nlemchi run for 8 yds to the UCF 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:18
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
100.0%
K.C. Nlemchi run for 3 yds to the UCF 43Similar
Q4 3:18
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+1
100.0%
K.C. Nlemchi run for 1 yd to the UCF 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 2:08
Justin Holman pass complete to J.J. Worton for 58 yds for a TD, (Rodrigo Quirarte KICK)
+1.6
TD · Q2 14:09
Cody Rademacher kickoff for 61 yds , Michael Easton return for 96 yds for a TD, (Rodrigo Quirarte KICK)
+1.6
TD · Q2 14:24
Matt Davis run for 5 yds for a TD, (Cody Rademacher KICK)
-1.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com